Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Simulation of suspended sediment based on gamma test,heuristic, and regression-based techniques

In the present study, four different heuristic techniques viz. multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), self-organizing maps (SOM), and co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) with hyperbolic tangent and sigmoid transfer functions and two regression-based techniques, i.e., multiple linear regression (MLR) and sediment-rating curve (SRC), were used for suspended sediment modeling. Gamma test (GT), correlation function (CF), M test, and trail–error procedure were applied for estimation of appropriate input variables as well as training data length. The results of the GT and CF suggested the five input variables (Q_t, Q_t?1, Q_t?2, S_t?1, and S_t?2, where Q_t?1 and S_t?1 indicate the discharge and sediment values of one previous day) as the best combination. The optimal training data length (75% of total data) was estimated by M test and trail–error procedure for development of the applied models. The MLP with sigmoid transfer function (M-2) performed better than the all other models. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that the present-day discharge (Q_t), 1-day lag discharge (Q_t?1) and 1-day lag suspended sediment (S_t?1) are the most influenced parameters in modeling current day suspended sediment (S_t).     

Strmömgren zones of type II supernovae

The emission measures EM in the directions of supernova remnants and pulsars are considered as functions of their ages t. The resulting plot has a well-defined lower boundary, which can be approximated by the expression EM_min∝1/t. The quantity EM_min increases with decreasing age t and does not level off or reach a maximum until t?500 yr. It is concluded that the bulk of the radiative energy that goes into ionizing and heating the interstellar gas is released at early stages of the supernova remnant’s evolution. We suggest that most of the kinetic energy of the supernova shell is converted into thermal energy and radiated at remnant ages t<100 yr, when the supernova shell, which is expanding at an enormous speed (about 10⁴ km/s), overtakes the shell produced by the presupernova in the supergiant stage. We have estimated the ionization energy E?10⁵¹ erg, diameter L?60 pc, and electron density N_e?7 cm^?3 of the HII regions around the supernovae (the supernova Strömgren zones). A list of objects that can be reliably identified as Strömgren zones of type II supernovae is presented. The plot of pulsar pulse broadening τ as a function of the pulsar age t also has a well-defined lower boundary, for which τ∝t^?2 when t≥1000 yr. This suggests that turbulence develops during the first thousand years after the supernova outburst. It is also concluded that turbulence plays an important role in the formation and evolution of the Strömgren zones of type II supernovae.     

Abundances of carbon,nitrogen, oxygen,and other elements in the atmospheres of the giants 25 Mon and HR 7389

An analysis of high-resolution CCD spectra of the giant 25 Mon, which shows signs of metallicity, and the normal giant HR 7389 is presented. The derived effective temperatures, gravitational accelerations, and microturbulence velocities are T_eff = 6700 K, log g = 3.24, and ξ _t = 3.1 km/s for 25 Mon and T_eff = 6630 K, log g = 3.71, and ξ _t = 2.6 km/s for HR 7389. The abundances (log ε) of nine elements are determined: carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sodium, silicon, calcium, iron, nickel, and barium. The derived excess carbon abundances are 0.23 dex for 25 Mon and 0.16 dex for HR 7389. 25 Mon displays a modest (0.08 dex) oxygen excess, with the oxygen excess for HR 7389 being somewhat higher (0.15 dex). The nitrogen abundance is probably no lower than the solar value for both stars. The abundances of iron, sodium, calcium (for HR 7389), barium, and nickel exceed the solar values by 0.22–0.40 dex for both stars. The highest excess (0.62 dex) is exhibited by the calcium abundance for 25 Mon. Silicon displays a nearly solar abundance in both stars—small deficits of ?0.03 dex and ?0.07 dex for 25 Mon and HR 7389, respectively. No fundamental differences in the elemental abundances were found in the atmospheres of 25 Mon and HR 7389. Based on their T_eff and log g values, as well as theoretical calculations, A. Claret estimated the masses, radii, luminosities, and ages of 25 Mon (M/M_⊙ = 2.45, log(R/R_⊙) = 0.79, log(L/L_⊙) = 1.85, t = 5.3 × 10⁸ yr) and HR 7389 (M/M_⊙ = 2.36, log(R/R_⊙) = 0.50, log(L/L_⊙) = 1.24, t = 4.6 × 10⁸ yr), and also of the stars 20 Peg (M/M_⊙ = 2.36, log(R/R_⊙) = 0.73, log(L/L_⊙) = 1.79, t = 4.9 × 10⁸ yr) and 30 LMi (M/M_⊙ = 2.47, log(R/R_⊙) = 0.73, log(L/L_⊙) = 1.88, t = 4.8 × 10⁸ yr) studied by the author earlier.     

Upscaling of transmissivity,derived from specific capacity: a hydrogeomorphological approach applied to the Doon Valley aquifer system in India

Transmissivity (T) is one of the most important parameters in groundwater studies, and is generally estimated from pumping tests. T can also be deduced from abundantly available specific-capacity (Q/s) data by using analytical and/or empirical approaches, further upscaled by geostatistical methods. A different, remote sensing based, hydrogeomorphological approach is proposed, to upscale T from point- or well-scale to aquifer-scale, and it is applied to the piedmont alluvial aquifer system of Doon Valley in India. In the first step, Q/s and T data-pairs available from aquifer tests were used to establish an empirical, logarithmic relation. Subsequently, satellite imagery along with available data from published and unpublished maps, literature sources and ground surveys were used to divide the aquifer system into major hydrogeomorphological domains that control the groundwater occurrence and flow. Then, the T data derived from Q/s (using the empirical relation) and that available from pumping tests at well-scale were upscaled to aquifer-scale by averaging the T values within each hydrogeomorphological domain. Such a stratification approach is especially useful in areas where availability of only a few data-pairs of known Q/s and T limit the use of geostatistical techniques. A comparative study of the published empirical relations between Q/s and T in various hydrogeologic settings revealed that the relation obtained for Doon Valley aquifer system is close to that found for a similar alluvial aquifer system in Morocco.     

Systemic geopolitical modeling. Part 2: subjectivity in prediction of geopolitical events

This paper studies subjective priorities for the data amounts in the processing of geopolitical data accoding to Mazis I. Th., theoretical paradigm of Systemic Geopolitical Analysis. After defining geopolitical plans and geopolitical focus sets, they are introduced geopolitical preferences and geopolitical management capacities. The geopolitical rational choice is studied, as well as the geopolitical preference-capacity distributions. Then, they are investigated geopolitical contrasts of subjective priorities by several geopolitical operators, and it is shown that there are cores and equilibriums of geopolitical contrasts, the study of which may provide useful information.     

Timescales for mechanisms for the dynamical evolution of open star clusters

We have obtained the stellar velocity dispersion in three mutually perpendicular directions in the halos and cores of clusters as a function of time for several non-stationary open-cluster models. During the dynamical evolution of the open-cluster models, the velocity dispersions undergo oscillations that do not decay during 5–10 violent-relaxation timescales, τ _vr . We estimated the time for synchronization of the rotation of the open-cluster models and their motion around the center of the Galaxy, t _s , which, depending on the model parameters, is t _s ? (5–27)τ _vr . Synchronization mechanisms for the models are discussed. The disruption of the systems in the force field of the Galaxy is strongly affected by tidal friction. We have also estimated the time for the formation of a spherical stellar-velocity distribution in the cluster models, t _σ ? (6 ? 25)τ _vr . The impact of instability in the stellar motions in a cluster on the formation of a spherical velocity distribution in the open-cluster models is discussed. We have noted a tendency for a weakening of the dependence of the coarse phase density of the cluster on small initial perturbations of the stellar phase coordinates in the model cluster cores for times about five times longer than the violent-relaxation time.     

The area and absolute magnetic flux of sunspots over the past 400 years

A new series of yearly-mean relative sunspot numbers SN ₂ that has been extrapolated into the past (to 1610) is presented. The Kislovodsk series with the scale factor b = 1.0094 ± 0.0059 represents a reasonable continuation of the mean-monthly and mean-yearly total sunspot areas of the Greenwich series after 1976. The second maximum of the 24th solar-activity cycle was not anomalously low, and was no lower than 6 of the past 13 cycles. A series A ₂ of values for the total sunspot area in 1610–2015 has been constructed, and is complementary to new versions of the series of the relative number of sunspots SN ₂ and the number of sunspot groups GN ₂. When needed, this series can be reduced to yield a quantity having a clear physical meaning—the spot absolute magnetic flux Φ _Σ(t)[Mx] = 2.16 × 10¹⁹ A(t) [mvh]. The maximum sunspot area during the Maunder minimum is much higher in the new series compared to the previous version. This at least partially supports the validity of arguments that cast doubt on the anomalously low ampltude of the solar cycles during the Maunder minimum that has been assumed by many researchers earlier.     

A Criterion for Brittle Failure of Rocks Using the Theory of Critical Distances

This paper presents a new analytical criterion for brittle failure of rocks and heavily over-consolidated soils. Griffith’s model of a randomly oriented defect under a biaxial stress state is used to keep the criterion simple. The Griffith’s criterion is improved because the maximum tensile strength is not evaluated at the boundary of the defect but at a certain distance from the boundary, known as half of the critical distance. This fracture criterion is known as the point method, and is part of the theory of critical distances, which is utilised in fracture mechanics. The proposed failure criterion has two parameters: the inherent tensile strength, σ ₀, and the ratio of the half-length of the initial crack/flaw to the critical distance, a/L. These parameters are difficult to measure but they may be correlated with the uniaxial compressive and tensile strengths, σ _c and σ _t. The proposed criterion is able to reproduce the common range of strength ratios for rocks and heavily overconsolidated soils (σ _c/σ _t = 3–50) and the influence of several microstructural rock properties, such as texture and porosity. Good agreement with laboratory tests reported in the literature is found for tensile and low-confining stresses.     

Prediction of an environmental issue of mine blasting: an imperialistic competitive algorithm-based fuzzy system

Ground vibration resulting from blasting is one of the most important environmental problems at open-cast mines. Therefore, accurately approximating the blast-induced ground vibration is very significant. By reviewing the previous investigations, many attempts have been done to create the empirical models for estimating ground vibration. Nevertheless, the performance of the empirical models is not good enough. In this research work, a new hybrid model of fuzzy system (FS) designed by imperialistic competitive algorithm (ICA) is proposed for approximating ground vibration resulting from blasting at Miduk copper mine, Iran. For comparison aims, various empirical models were also utilized. Results from different predictor models were compared by using coefficient of multiple determination (R ²), variance account for and root-mean-square error between measured and predicted values of the PPVs. Results prove that the FS–ICA model outperforms the other empirical models in terms of the prediction accuracy. In other words, the FS–ICA model with R ² of 0.942 can forecast PPV better than the USBM with R ² of 0.634, Ambraseys–Hendron with R ² of 0.638, Langefors–Kihlstrom with R ² of 0.637 and Indian Standard with R ² of 0.519.     

A novel fuzzy <Emphasis Type="Italic">K</Emphasis>-nearest neighbor inference model with differential evolution for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a tropical hilly area using GIS

This research represents a novel soft computing approach that combines the fuzzy k-nearest neighbor algorithm (fuzzy k-NN) and the differential evolution (DE) optimization for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at a tropical hilly area of Quy Hop, Vietnam. According to current literature, the fuzzy k-NN and the DE optimization are current state-of-the-art techniques in data mining that have not been used for prediction of landslide. First, a spatial database was constructed, including 129 landslide locations and 12 influencing factors, i.e., slope, slope length, aspect, curvature, valley depth, stream power index (SPI), sediment transport index (STI), topographic ruggedness index (TRI), topographic wetness index (TWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), lithology, and soil type. Second, 70 % landslide locations were randomly generated for building the landslide model whereas the remaining 30 % landslide locations was for validating the model. Third, to construct the landslide model, the DE optimization was used to search the optimal values for fuzzy strength (fs) and number of nearest neighbors (k) that are the two required parameters for the fuzzy k-NN. Then, the training process was performed to obtain the fuzzy k-NN model. Value of membership degree of the landslide class for each pixel was extracted to be used as landslide susceptibility index. Finally, the performance and prediction capability of the landslide model were assessed using classification accuracy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), kappa statistics, and other evaluation metrics. The result shows that the fuzzy k-NN model has high performance in the training dataset (AUC?=?0.944) and validation dataset (AUC?=?0.841). The result was compared with those obtained from benchmark methods, support vector machines and J48 decision trees. Overall, the fuzzy k-NN model performs better than the support vector machines and the J48 decision trees models. Therefore, we conclude that the fuzzy k-NN model is a promising prediction tool that should be used for susceptibility mapping in landslide-prone areas.     

A study of the supergiant 89 Her

We have used spectrograms taken with a dispersion of 8–12 Å per mm and Kurucz model atmospheres to study the supergiant 89 Her (F2Ibe).We find the effective temperature and gravity T _eff = 6300 ± 150 K and log g = 0.5 ± 0.2. We have analyzed the microturbulence in the star’s atmosphere based on FeI, FeII, and TiII lines, deriving ξ _t = 7.0 ± 0.5 km/s for the FeI and TiII lines and ξ _t = 8.0 ± 0.5 km/s for the FeII lines. Abundances were determined for 23 elements. The elemental abundances in the atmosphere of 89 Her show deficiencies compared to the solar chemical composition, except for sodium, which is overabundant relative to the Sun.     

Probing cosmic plasma with giant pulses from the crab nebula pulsar

A review and comparative analysis of results from studies of the effects of scattering on the interstellar medium using giant pulses of the Crab Nebula pulsar (B0531+21) are presented. This analysis was based on eight epochs of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) radio observations carried out as part of the scientific program of the Radio Astron mission during 2011–2015. The scintillation timescale t _scint and spectral index γ for the power-law energy distribution of the pulses were obtained for each observing epoch. The measured scintillation timescales are t _scint = 7.5?123 s at 1668 MHz and t _scint = 2.9 s at 327 MHz. The spectral indices are ?1.6...?2.5. The frequency and time characteristics of the scattering were measured using two independent methods: based on the decorrelation bandwidth Δν _d and the scattering timescale τ _SC. The angular size of the scattering disk θ _H of the pulsar was obtained, the phase structure functions constructed, and the distance to the effective scattering screen estimated. The derived diameter of the scattering disk θ _H at 1668 MHz ranges from 0.4 to 1.3 mas, while the scatteringdisk diameter at 327 MHz is 14.0 mas. The measured distance to the effective scattering screen ranges from 0.7 to 1.9 kpc, and varies from observation to observation in the same way as the scattering timescale and decorrelation bandwidth: τ _SC ≈ 0.9?5.8 μs and Δν _d ≈ 40.7?161 kHz at 1668 MHz. The scattering timescale and decorrelation bandwidth at 327 MHz are 2340 μs and 68 Hz.     

Analysis of Methods for Computing the Trajectories of Dust Particles in a Gas–Dust Circumstellar Disk

A systematic analysis ofmethods for computing the trajectories of solid-phase particles applied in modern astrophysics codes designed for modeling gas–dust circumstellar disks has been carried out for the first time. Themotion of grains whose velocities are determinedmainly by the gas drag, that is, for which the stopping time or relaxation time for the velocity of the dust to the velocity of the gas t_stop is less than or comparable to the rotation period, are considered. The methods are analyzed from the point of view of their suitability for computing the motions of small bodies, including dust grains less than 1 μm in size, which are strongly coupled to the gas. Two test problems are with analytical solutions. Fast first order accurate methods that make it possible to avoid additional restrictions on the time step size τ due to gas drag in computations of the motion of grains of any size are presented. For the conditions of a circumstellar disk, the error in the velocity computations obtained when using some stable methods becomes unacceptably large when the time step size is τ > t_stop. For the radial migration of bodies that exhibit drifts along nearly Keplerian orbits, an asymptotic approximation, sometimes called the short friction time approximation or drift flux model, gives a relative error for the radial-velocity computations equals to St², where St is the Stokes number, the ratio of the stopping time of the body to some fraction of the rotation period (dynamical time scale) in the disk.     

Abundances of carbon,nitrogen, oxygen,and other elements in the atmospheres of the giants 15 ori and 22 <Emphasis Type="Italic">ɛ</Emphasis> sex

We have used high-resolution spectra to study the giants 15 Ori and 22 ? Sex. The effective temperature T _eff = 7060 K, gravity log g = 3.16, and microturbulence velocity ξ _t = 3.5 km/s were determined for 15 Ori, with T _eff = 7350 K and log g = 3.90 for 22 ? Sex (the microturbulence velocity for 22 ? Sex was assumed to be ξ _t = 2.7 km/s). We estimated the abundances of C, N, O, Na, Si, Ca, Fe, and Ba (N and Ba, for 15 Ori only). The abundances of carbon, iron, and oxygen in 22 ? Sex are higher than the solar values by +0.31 dex, +0.33 dex, and +0.18 dex, respectively, while the calcium abundance is ?0.19 dex below the solar level. For 15 Ori, we find a slight carbon excess (+0.19 dex), a slight nitrogen deficiency (?0.13 dex), and a considerable deficiency of silicon (?0.42 dex). The abundances of the remaining elements in both stars are near-solar. We find no substantial differences between the abundances derived for 15 Ori and 22 ? Sex and the results of earlier studies of giants by both ourselves and Erspamer and North. A comparison of the atmospheric elemental abundances of giants and δ Scuti stars indicates that the abundances of some lighter elements (oxygen, sodium, silicon, and possibly nitrogen) are somewhat lower for δ Scuti stars than for A-F giants. We determined the masses, radii, luminosities, and ages for 15 Ori and 22 ? Sex.     

Evaluation of the Soil Conservation Service curve number methodology using data from agricultural plots

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method, also known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number (NRCS-CN) method, is popular for computing the volume of direct surface runoff for a given rainfall event. The performance of the SCS-CN method, based on large rainfall (P) and runoff (Q) datasets of United States watersheds, is evaluated using a large dataset of natural storm events from 27 agricultural plots in India. On the whole, the CN estimates from the National Engineering Handbook (chapter 4) tables do not match those derived from the observed P and Q datasets. As a result, the runoff prediction using former CNs was poor for the data of 22 (out of 24) plots. However, the match was little better for higher CN values, consistent with the general notion that the existing SCS-CN method performs better for high rainfall–runoff (high CN) events. Infiltration capacity (fc) was the main explanatory variable for runoff (or CN) production in study plots as it exhibited the expected inverse relationship between CN and fc. The plot-data optimization yielded initial abstraction coefficient (λ) values from 0 to 0.659 for the ordered dataset and 0 to 0.208 for the natural dataset (with 0 as the most frequent value). Mean and median λ values were, respectively, 0.030 and 0 for the natural rainfall–runoff dataset and 0.108 and 0 for the ordered rainfall–runoff dataset. Runoff estimation was very sensitive to λ and it improved consistently as λ changed from 0.2 to 0.03.     

Photometric elements and apsidal motion of the eclipsing binary ES Lac

We have obtained high-accuracy photoelectric measurements of ES Lac, an eclipsing binary with an elliptical orbit (B9III + B9III; P = 4.459^d, e = 0.198) in 1985–2004 at the Sternberg Astronomical Institute’s Tien Shan High-Altitude Observatory. Our detailed analysis of the 19-year uniform series of measurements has yielded the first photometric elements for this system, as well as a self-consistent set of physical and geometrical parameters for the binary. The virtually identical components (M ₁ = M ₂ = 3.0 M _⊙; R ₁ = R ₂ = 4.12 R _⊙) are appreciably separated from the main sequence, and are located on the giant branch: their age is t = (3.5 ± 0.2) × 10⁸ yrs. An analysis of our observations together with previously published times of minima has enabled a considerable refinement of the period of the apsidal motion, U = 355 ± 20 years, and a first determination of the apsidal parameter reflecting the radial density distributions for the components stars: k ₂ ^obs = 0.00213(18). This value is in a good agreement with the value expected theoretically for current evolutionary models of such stars: k ₂ ^th = 0.00257(15).     

Factors of <Superscript>18</Superscript>O/<Superscript>16</Superscript>O fractionation in corundum estimated from the calculation of isotopic shifts on vibration frequencies

The β-factors of corundum were estimated on the basis of DFT calculations of vibrational frequency changes due to ¹⁶O–¹⁸O isotope substitution in a harmonic approximation using an all-electron Gaussian-type basis set and the B3LYP hybrid functional (the CRYSTAL program). Calculations were performed accounting for eight phonon wave vectors within the first Brillouin zone. The results are approximated by the relation 1000ln β _crn = 9.19874x–0.12326x ² + 0.00213x ³ (x = 10⁶/T(K)², 400 < T(K) < 1300), which can be used in isotope geochemical studies in combination with the known temperature effects on the β-factors of other phases.     

Nature of occurrence of phosphatic bands in Owk Formation,Neoproterozoic Kurnool basin,Andhra Pradesh

Rock slope instabilities are a major hazard for human activities often causing economic losses, property damages and maintenance costs, as well as injuries or fatalities. For slope stability analysis of open pit mines, series of studies must be carried out in order to identify the criteria which should take into consideration. In this research geotechnical parameters; Geological Strength Index (GSI), Rock Quality Designation (RQD), Cohesion (C), angle of internal friction (φ), uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and Rock mass deformation modulus (E_m) which are obtained from data measured within geotechnical boreholes and pore pressure (U) are considered as the criteria to evaluate stability of pit No.1 of the Gole Gohar iron mine, located in Kerman province, south east of Iran. Since human judgments and preferences are often vague and complex and decision makers cannot estimate their preferences with an exact scale, we can only give linguistic assessments instead of exact ones. So fuzzy set theory introduced into Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Fuzzy AHP (FAHP) is put forward to solve such uncertain problems. In this paper, FAHP method is used to determine the weights of the criteria by decision makers and then classification of the stability of blocks are determined by TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method by the shortest distance to positive ideal solution (PIS) and the longest distance to negative ideal solution (NIS).