Analysis of flash flood disaster characteristics in China from 2011 to 2015

Flash floods are one of the most disastrous natural hazards and cause serious loss of life and economic damage every year. Flooding frequently affects many regions in China, including periodically catastrophic events. An extensive compilation of the available data has been conducted across various hydroclimatological regions to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash floods in China. This inventory includes over 782 documented events and is the first step toward establishing an atlas of extreme flash flood occurrences in China. This paper first presents the data compilation strategy, details of the database contents, and the typical examples of first-hand analysis results. The subsequent analysis indicates that the most extreme flash floods originate mainly from small catchments over complex terrains and results in dominantly small- and medium-sized flooding events in terms of scales; however, these events, abrupt and seasonally recurrent in nature, account for a large proportion of the overall flooding-related disasters, especially disproportionately affecting elderly and youth populations. Finally, this study also recommends several immediate measures could be implemented to mitigate high impacts of deadly flash floods, although it still requires long-term significant efforts to protect human life and property in a country like China.     

新疆不同区域牧业雪灾损失时频变化特征

选用新疆1952-2013年75个县707条雪灾害资料, 采用灰色关联评估模型以县为单位将新疆分为特重雪灾区、 重雪灾区、 一般雪灾区、 小雪灾区. 用气候趋势系数与五阶函数分析各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 并用morlet小波分析其振荡周期. 结果表明: 全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额基本都存在23 a左右的长周期, 14～17 a中周期, 10 a左右的小周期, 另外, 还存在5～7 a的小波动, 各区周期振荡的强弱及时间范围不同. 全疆及特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有减少趋势; 而重雪灾区和一般雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有微弱的增加趋势. 特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期变化趋势决定了新疆雪灾牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 全疆平均每年因雪灾牲畜死亡数额以0.4%的速率递减, 特重雪灾区每年按上一年度总额1.4%的速率递减. 由于20世纪80年代开始, 新疆有计划、 大规模推行牧民定居工程, 从而大大提高了新疆牧业抗御自然灾害的能力, 以及冬春气温升高的缘故, 使得全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额大大减少. 因为各牧业区实施牧民定居工程开始的时间不同, 使全疆各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额高值期(年代际与年际尺度振荡的活跃期)进入低值期(少发时期)的临界时间存在差异.     

Financing rapid community reconstruction after catastrophic disaster: lessons from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

Catastrophic disasters can change the course of urban development and challenge the long-run sustainability of cities and regions. How to rapidly reconstruct communities impaired by catastrophic disaster is a world-wide challenge. The reconstruction after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China was an unusual case of very rapid reconstruction after a catastrophic disaster. Over US$147 billion was invested to rebuild the damaged areas within 3 years. The reconstruction was not simply building back what was destroyed, but was used as an opportunity to advance national goals for urbanization, rural transformation, and poverty reduction. In this article, we review how the reconstruction was planned, budgeted, and financed in the sociopolitical context of 2008 China. Particularly, we discuss two innovative programs, namely pair assistance and land-based financing. Despite the unique circumstances of China, lessons can be learned to speed up post-disaster reconstruction and urban development in other countries. Conversely, this case illustrates that a narrow focus on physical reconstruction may overlook broader economic and social issues.

     

Tornado disaster impacts and management: learning from the 2016 tornado catastrophe in Jiangsu Province,China

Natural Hazards - As a key component of disaster reduction management, disaster emergency relief and reconstruction is an important process. Based on disaster system theory, this study analyzed the...     

2000～2016年陕西省地质灾害时空分布规律及变化趋势

本文利用2000~2016年陕西省已经造成人员伤亡和财产损失的地质灾害灾情资料,分析研究了近十七年陕西省地质灾害时空分布规律及变化趋势。结果表明:(1)时间上,年内地质灾害主要发生在5~10月,而7~9月是重灾期,非汛期地质灾害数量占比呈明显增高态势,由2013年以前的不足10.00%上升至2015年的39.47%、2016年的26.67%;年际上每3~5年会发生一次特大型地质灾害;“十二五”期间,地质灾害的发生数量、死亡失踪人数、直接经济损失总体上呈明显下降趋势。(2)空间上,陕南地区的地质灾害数量最多,但近年来陕北地区的地质灾害数量明显增多,呈现出由陕南向陕北逐渐扩展的趋势,2013年和2016年地质灾害数量占比由2003年的最低值0.25%分别上升至87.54%和46.67%,远远高于同年陕南地区。(3)引发因素上,由单一的自然因素向多因素交织转变,因人为活动引发的地质灾害数量呈现上升趋势。     

西安地裂缝与地面沉降灾害经济损失评估

为了深入分析西安地裂缝与地面沉降灾害致灾特点及定量评价其经济损失,在中国地质调查局于2004-2006年开展的西安地区地裂缝与地面沉降调查所取得的成果资料基础上,通过综合分析研究得出,西安地裂缝与地面沉降的致灾特点具有直接性、三维破坏性、三维空间有限性、渐进性和持久性。采用终值法、影子工程法、统计推断法、重置成本法、建造成本或工程费用法、灾情对比法、间接损失与直接损失比例法和权重分解法评价得出地裂缝与地面沉降灾害在1976-2006年造成经济损失为117亿元,其中直接损失71亿元,间接损失46亿元。     

The comprehensive risk evaluation on rainstorm and flood disaster losses in China mainland from 2004 to 2009: based on the triangular gray correlation theory

In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and flood disaster losses. In addition, we divide the risk grade standards of rainstorm and flood disaster losses according to 186 rainstorm and flood disaster data of four optimization indexes (disaster area, suffered population, collapsed houses, and direct economic losses), evaluate the extent of dynamic rainstorm and flood disaster losses in 31 provinces of China (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan exclusive) comprehensively, and draw China’s zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster from 2004 to 2009. The method provides reasonable and effective references for national disaster preventions which can be used in other researches focused on risk evaluation of meteorological disaster losses.     

Public cognition and response to earthquake disaster: from the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan to the 2013 Mw6.6 Lushan earthquakes in Sichuan Province,China

Natural Hazards - China is one of the countries most affected by earthquakes. Improving public cognition and response to earthquake disaster (EDCR) is an effective means to reduce seismic risk and...     

1980—2017年祁连山水源涵养量时空变化特征

祁连山是中国西北地区十分重要的生态安全屏障,也是当地极为关键的水源涵养区。基于InVEST模型中的产水量模块,对祁连山水源涵养量和时空变化进行了分析并探讨其影响因素。结果表明：祁连山多年平均产水总量和水源涵养总量约为93.03×10⁸ m³和57.83×10⁸ m³。从时间变化来看,水源涵养量呈上升趋势,上升速率约为0.196 mm·a^-1;在空间上呈“东多西少”的分布格局,与年降水量的空间分布大致相同。不同土地利用类型下的水源涵养总量依次为：草地（31.87×10⁸ m³）>林地（16.71×10⁸ m³）>耕地（4.92×10⁸ m³）>其他用地（2.29×10⁸ m³）>建设用地（0.63×10⁸ m³）。降水量与水源涵养量在所有研究时段内均存在显著正相关性。不同时期土地利用类型的变化也会对水源涵养量产生重要影响,研究区草地面积变化对水源涵养量影响较大。根据建立的经验公式并参考已有研究成果,估算得出研究区多年冻土地下冰储量在550 km³以上,在全球气候变暖的背景下,消融趋势明显。研究可为祁连山水资源合理配置和生态系统保护提供参考。     

Using Bayesian networks in analyzing powerful earthquake disaster chains

Substantial economic losses, building damage, and loss of life have been caused by secondary disasters that result from strong earthquakes. Earthquake disaster chains occur when secondary disasters take place in sequence. In this paper, we summarize 23 common earthquake disaster chains, whose structures include the serial, parallel, and parallel–serial (dendroid disaster chain) types. Evaluating the probability of powerful earthquake disaster chains is urgently needed for effective disaster prediction and emergency management. To this end, we introduce Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess powerful earthquake disaster chains. The structural graph of a powerful earthquake disaster chain is presented, and the proposed BN modeling method is provided and discussed. BN model of the earthquake–landslides–barrier lakes–floods disaster chain is established. The use of BN shows that such a model enables the effective analysis of earthquake disaster chains. Probability inference reveals that population density, loose debris volume, flooded areas, and landslide dam stability are the most critical links that lead to loss of life in earthquake disaster chains.     

1970-2000年中国降雪量变化和区域性分布特征

源自NOAA-NESDIS北半球积雪覆盖数据显示,20世纪70年代至2000年期间,我国降雪覆盖范围基本没有出现明显变化.依据全国无缺测、具有连续日降雪观测的台站资料波谱分析显示,1970-2000年我国降雪量年变化波谱组成比较简单,但具有明显的区域性分布特征和两种相反的变化趋势.划分出4个降雪量年变化相似区域:除东北...     

Spatiotemporal changes in population distribution and socioeconomic development in China from 1950 to 2010

Complex factors, including those associated with human and natural geography, have contributed to a longstanding imbalance in the relationship between population distribution and socioeconomic development in eastern and western China. Applying the population distribution structure index, the Gini coefficient of population distribution, and analysis of the movement of the population center of gravity and spatial autocorrelation, this study simultaneously analyzes the spatial characteristics of population density in China and the trends in its temporal and spatial variation from 1950 to 2010. It was found that while China’s population distribution has increasingly balanced development, the overall pattern of the spatial distribution has not changed significantly. Although the “Hu Huanyong Line” is still a valid representation of the country’s population distribution, the population distribution in parts of Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia has extended the boundary of the Hu Huanyong Line. The Chinese population has experienced a trend of movement towards the west. While the congruence between the population distribution and economic development of the country as a whole was relatively low, it was relatively high in the northeast and the relationship is steadily improving. Compared with the eastern and central regions, the western region has experienced a fluctuating and weakening trend.     

2008年云南盈江地震震害特点及抗震防灾启示

2008年云南省盈江县发生了多次中强地震,其中较严重的地震事件有3月21日在南部发生的5.0级地震和8月21日在北部发生的5.9级地震。通过实地考察并结合有关文献,对地震震害特点作了分析,从中得出了农村抗震救灾的启示。几次地震震中均位于岩浆岩区,未见地震断层。地震造成了大量民房破坏,其中3月21日地震对铜壁关乡有轻微的破坏,5.9级地震破坏最严重的是勐弄乡部分村庄,微观震中所在的苏典乡房屋有较轻程度的破坏,油松岭乡江心坡村位于冲积平原,是烈度异常区。有2种原因致使盈江地震震害严重,一是地基地质结构差和力学强度低,如滑坡堆积层地基和易液化沙土地基;二是建筑物的抗震性能差,主要是建筑结构松散和建筑材料质量低劣。盈江地震灾害告诉我们,在农村加强地基勘查和地基处理的极端重要性,同时要加强房屋的抗震设防,加强对地震的应急能力建设,提倡地震保险。     

震害预测工作在数字城市中的作用

信息技术的采用大大提高了震害预测的精度和震灾快速评估能力。城市震害预测工作在地理信息系统和计算机模拟技术支持下 ,能有效对震灾的发生及时获取各种基础数据进行综合分析 ,并对震害造成的损失和社会影响进行科学估算。利用数字城市为我们提供的数据共享平台和技术系统 ,帮助政府快速了解震情、灾情、提出对策。同时 ,依据震害预测研究成果 ,结合数字城市、数字福建可为政府及有关部门了解防灾薄弱环节 ,采取减灾措施 ,制定城市减轻灾害的长远规划 ,提高城市抗御地震灾害的能力     

2008年云南盈江地震震害特点及抗震防灾启示

2008年云南省盈江县发生了多次中强地震,其中较严重的地震事件有3月21日在南部发生的5.0级地震和8月21日在北部发生的5.9级地震。通过实地考察并结合有关文献,对地震震害特点作了分析,从中得出了农村抗震救灾的启示。几次地震震中均位于岩浆岩区,未见地震断层。地震造成了大量民房破坏,其中3月21日地震对铜壁关乡有轻微的破坏,5.9级地震破坏最严重的是勐弄乡部分村庄,微观震中所在的苏典乡房屋有较轻程度的破坏,油松岭乡江心坡村位于冲积平原,是烈度异常区。有2种原因致使盈江地震震害严重,一是地基地质结构差和力学强度低,如滑坡堆积层地基和易液化沙土地基;二是建筑物的抗震性能差,主要是建筑结构松散和建筑材料质量低劣。盈江地震灾害告诉我们,在农村加强地基勘查和地基处理的极端重要性,同时要加强房屋的抗震设防,加强对地震的应急能力建设,提倡地震保险。     

Public response to earthquake disaster: a case study in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture

By considering an area affected by a Ms 7.1 earthquake in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, in 2010 as an example, this paper analyzed the public response level after an earthquake disaster and discussed the principal factors influencing public response behaviors using a questionnaire survey. The results showed that the local public’s response level is low in the studied area. The average response scoring rate is only 0.50. Gender, family income, experience and religion are the most significant factors influencing the public response level. Females or individuals with low family income and little education tend to have lower response capability and are more vulnerable during an earthquake disaster. Furthermore, on the whole, participants who had experience coping with unexpected safety events appear to adopt more reasonable response behavior during an earthquake disaster. The relatively undeveloped economy and low education level are the basic limiting factors for improving the public response capability in the studied area. Certain policies and suggestions to improve the response capability and disaster reduction were discussed.     

1901~2020年中国西北地区干湿变化的时空特征

西北地区是我国西部大开发的主战场和重要的生态安全屏障,研究西北地区在全球变化背景下的干湿演化规律对我国高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究选取0.5°空间分辨率的逐月标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)格点数据集,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、EOF经验正交函数分解以及小波分析等方法,探索西北地区1901~2020年月尺度、年尺度、4年尺度的干湿变化时空演化特征。研究结果表明,西北地区SPEI值总体上呈逐渐下降的趋势。空间变化上,西北地区干湿变化情况存在明显的空间分异,研究区西南和西北部分表现为湿润趋势,而在中部和东部则表现为干旱趋势,这种反相变化特征在长时间尺度干旱上表现更加明显。时空模态的分解表明,西北地区月尺度干湿演化具有空间一致性,而在较长时间尺度上,区域干湿演化跷跷板模式占据主导地位,且这种空间差异模式在1990年代末期明显增强。在时间变化上,西北地区干旱具有较显著的2~8年短时间尺度的周期性变化规律,同时具有明显且连续的约11年和约22年长时间尺度的周期性变化特征。基于本分析结果,可以推断西北地区干湿变化时空演化特征可能受太阳活动和厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)等因素的影响。研究结果还表明,SPEI指数在中国西北地区干旱分析研究中具有较好的适用性,研究结果可为该地区预防干旱事件和适应气候变化工作提供参考。

     

Initiatives for earthquake disaster risk management in the Kathmandu Valley

Situated over the Himalayan tectonic zone, Kathmandu Valley as a lake in geological past has a long history of destructive earthquakes. In recent years, the earthquake risk of the valley has significantly increased due mainly to uncontrolled development, poor construction practices with no earthquake safety consideration, and lack of awareness among the general public and government authorities. Implementation of land use plan and building codes, strengthening of design and construction regulations, relocation of communities in risky areas, and conduction of public awareness programs are suitable means of earthquake disaster risk management practice. Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, is still lacking earthquake disaster risk management plans. So, this paper highlights some initiatives adopted by both governmental and nongovernmental organizations of Nepal to manage earthquake disaster risk in the Kathmandu Valley. It provides some comprehensive information on recent initiatives of earthquake disaster risk management in the valley and also highlights the outcomes and challenges.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017

Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.

     

1961-2016年中国天山不同级别降雪事件变化特征分析

为了更好地理解降雪对气候变化的响应及机理,利用天山山区及周边49个站点日气象资料,采用参数化降雪判识方案提取降雪序列,以百分位阈值法分级别分析天山山区1961-2016年降雪事件变化特征。结果表明:①天山山区降雪量和降雪频次呈山区大于盆地,北坡大于南坡,自西北向东南递减的分布特征。②过去56年来,天山山区降雪量显著增加,降雪频次微弱增加;各级别降雪量和降雪频次变化趋势表现为:小雪显著减少,中雪变化平稳,大雪和极端降雪显著增加;降雪显著增加区域集中分布于天山北坡中部和伊犁河谷地区,降雪量的增加主要由极端降雪量和频次的增加所致。③年降雪量、大雪降雪量和频次、极端降雪量和频次在20世纪80年代中期发生突变增加,其他级别降雪量和频次无明显突变。④天山山区降雪量和极端降雪量的增加与气温变暖有关。