南半球对流层气候年代际变化及其与太阳活动的联系

通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。     

Eolian quartz flux variations in Cheju Island, Korea, during the last 6500 yr and a possible Sun-monsoon linkage

We have obtained a high-resolution sedimentary record covering the last 6500 yr from a maar in Cheju Island, Korea, in order to reconstruct the history of variations in the eolian quartz flux (EQF) and hence Asian dust. The long-term variation of EQF reveals three intervals: a period of high EQF (4000-2000 cal yr B.P.) and two periods of low EQF (6500-4000 cal yr B.P. and 2000 cal yr B.P. to present), which have been affected by the East Asian monsoon due to insolation change and the cold air activity in high latitudes correlated with polar high-pressure systems. This long-term variation is superimposed by millennial- and centennial-scale fluctuations with periodicities of 1137, 739, 214, 162, 137, 127, and 111 yr, implying drier conditions in the source areas in China. The detrended EQF record correlates visually and statistically (cross-spectral analysis) with the atmospheric Δ¹⁴C record (solar proxy). The centennial-scale variability in EQF may be affected by the solar activity through the Sun-East Asian monsoon linkage.     

Cyclic evolution of the global magnetic field observed during the 21st and 22nd solar cycles

The global component of the large-scale magnetic field is identified using two methods applied to Stanford Observatory data on the photospheric magnetic field obtained in 1976–2000. Two significantly different phases are observed in the evolution of the global magnetic field detected during the 11-year cycle. Phase I includes the cycle growth and maximum, while Phase II includes the cycle decay and minimum. During Phases I and II of the 11-year cycle, two different processes dominate both the magnetic-field generation and the solar activity as a whole. At lower latitudes, Phase I demonstrates a longitudinal splitting of the magnetic field, which takes the form of stripes of opposite polarities located parallel to the equator. The long dimensions of these stripes are grouped near 90° and 180°. The global magnetic field rotates as a rigid body with a period that is appreciably shorter than the Carrington-rotation period and reaches about 27.225 days. During reversals of the polarity of the global magnetic field, the field displays opposite signs in antipodal longitude intervals with lengths of about 135°. Thus, the equatorial dipolar field is clearly manifest during Phase I. Transitional longitude intervals with widths of 45° located between 135° intervals correspond to the positions of active longitudes of sunspots, indicating a close relationship between the global and local magnetic fields.     

中国黄土高原西部马兰黄土记录的MIS3气候特征与全球气候记录的对比研究

对黄土高原西部临夏塬堡剖面的研究表明:56.1～25.0kaB.P.相当于末次冰期大间冰阶或深海氧同位素第3阶段可划分为56.1～42.2kaB.P.强温湿、39.3～33.1kaB.P.弱温湿、31～25kaB.P.中等温湿的3个温湿期和42.2～39.3kaB.P.,33.1～31.0kaB.P.的两个干冷期,且没有记录前人认为的所谓“高温大降水事件”。全球不同区域同期气候记录的对比分析证明:“高温大降水事件”只是局部气候演变的产物,其影响范围是有限的,将末次冰期晚期40～30kaB.P.全部升格为间冰期的说法有待商榷。在深海氧同位素第3阶段成因机制的探讨中,究竟是太阳辐射量的变化诱导北半球冰量的变化,从而诱发末次冰期这一温湿时期的产生,还是在较大程度上受太阳辐射量的变化更直接一些,尚需做更多的工作。     

Variations in solar and geomagnetic activity with periods near to 1.3 year

It is known that solar wind velocity fluctuates regularly with a period of about 1.3 years. This periodicity (and other signals with periods near to 1.1 and 0.9 years) has also been observed in biological data. The variation is a temporary feature, mostly being observed in the early 1990s. Here, the occurrence of these periodic signals in solar and geomagnetic activity between 1932 and 2005 has been investigated. The signal with 1.3 year period is present in geomagnetic activity only in a short interval after 1990 and to a lesser extent around 1942. At other times the signal is very weak or not present at all. Other periods are much lower amplitude and appear only sporadically throughout the time investigated. A connection between these periods and solar cycles (e.g. different even or odd cycles) has not been proven. It is possible that there is a long-term periodicity in the occurrence of the 1.3 year period but the time series data available is insufficient to confirm this. There are no such periodicities in solar activity. In order to gain a greater understanding of these periodic signals, we should search for their origin in interplanetary space.     

North-south asymmetry in response of geomagnetic activity to different solar events

Study of the response of geomagnetic activity to five different kinds of solar events reveals that an average north-south asymmetry of about 15% exists which diminishes with enhanced geomagnetic activity. The response of the geomagnetic field is quite significant only when high speed solar wind stream in association with sector boundary of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) or solar proton streams near sector boundary sweeps past the earth. When the frequency of occurrence of indices of geomagnetic activity is considered, the index zero shows a marked difference in its response characteristics for the southern hemisphere. This appears to be a real feature and not attributable to any artefact of the index or its derivation.     

Coherent structures in the dynamics of the large-scale solar magnetic field

Variations in the mean solar magnetic field (MSMF) are studied in both the frequency-time and longitude-time domains. A wavelet analysis of the MSMF clearly demonstrates that variations in the mean field are not stationary. Combined with longitude-time diagrams for the background solar magnetic field (BSMF), the analysis reveals the emergence of the background field, which occurs discretely at intervals of 1.5–2 years. Based on an analysis of the fine structure in MSMF variations, we develop a numerical technique to study timedependent heliographic-longitude distribution of the large-scale magnetic field. A detailed picture of the rotation of the large-scale magnetic field is derived for activity cycles 20–23. Coherent structures are detected in longitude-time diagrams obtained by deconvolving the MSMF series. These structures are related to discrete rigid-rotation modes of the large-scale magnetic fields. Various rotational modes coexist and replace one another. During the phase of activity growth, modes with periods of 27.8–28.5 days dominate, whereas a mode with a rotational period of about 27 days dominates during the decline phase. Occasionally, modes with periods of 29–30 days appear. Most structures in the longitude-time MSMF distribution correspond to similar structures in the BSMF distribution for the northern or southern hemisphere. Chronologically, the emergence of the BSMF has frequently been accompanied by changes in the solar rotational regime and has been correlated with variations in the polarity asymmetry in the course of the 11-year activity cycle.     

Comparative study of scintillations at the magnetic equator and at the crest region of the equatorial anomaly in Indian zone

Using simultaneous long-term observations of ionospheric scintillation at equator and anomaly crest region in the same longitude (Indian) zone comparative features of scintillation occurrence are brought out. The salient features are: (a) predominantly pre-midnight occurrence of scintillation at equator during winter and equinox seasons, (b) increase of pre-midnight scintillation occurrence with solar activity (c) shifting of occurrence peak during summer from post-midnight in low to pre-midnight in high solar activity periods (d) similarity of scintillation behaviour at these locations during winter and equinoxes but dissimilarity during summer. The solar activity response and magnetic effects indicate that the scintillations at the anomaly crest region in winter and equinox, particularly during high solar activity periods, are of equatorial origin while the summer events may be of local or mid-latitude origin.     

A study on the various types of arrhythmias in relation to the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field

Over the last few years, various researches have reached the conclusion that cosmic ray variations and geomagnetic disturbances are related to the condition of the human physiological state. In this study, medical data concerning the number of incidents of different types of cardiac arrhythmias for the time period 1983–1992, which refer to 1902 patients in Tbilisi, Georgia, were used. The smoothing method and the Pearson r-coefficients were used to examine the possible effect of different solar and geomagnetic activity parameters and cosmic ray intensity variations on the different types of arrhythmias. The time interval under examination was separated into two different time periods, which coincided with the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field occurred in the years 1989–1990, and as a result, a different behavior of all the above-mentioned parameters as well as of the different types of arrhythmias was noticed during the two time intervals. In addition, changing of polarity sign of the solar magnetic field was found to affect the sign of correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the aforementioned parameters. The primary and secondary maxima observed in the solar parameters during the solar cycle 22, also appeared in several types of arrhythmias with a time lag of about 5 months.     

Evolution of the magnetic fields of solar flare active regions from the geometry and topology of HMI/SDO magnetograms

The testing and development of topological approaches to the analysis of solar magnetic fields are considered. A technique based on the geometry of random fields, mathematical morphology and topology, and scale-space analyses are applied to describe and diagnose the pre-flare dynamics of the magnetic fields of solar active regions using HMI/SDO magnetograms. The results show that this formalism can be used to diagnose pre-flare dynamics over time intervals that are of practical interest.     

Mean absolute strength of the solar magnetic field in 1968–2006

Measurements of the mean magnetic field of the Sun as a star (the line-of-sight component of the magnetic field of the visible hemisphere for a given day) carried out at six observatories are used to compile a catalog of the mean magnetic field for 1968–2006 (containing about 18 000 daily values). The cataloged data are compared with direct daily measurements of the absolute line-of-sight field made at the Kitt Peak Observatory in 2003–2006 (original data with a resolution of 1″ averaged over the solar disk). The true absolute mean field strength averaged over the visible solar hemisphere is determined for 1968–2006 to be B ₀ = 7.7 ± 0.2 G. This figure exceeds previous estimates by almost a factor of four. B ₀ exhibits no appreciable slow trend over the entire 39-year interval, but varies substantially with the cycle. The period of this variation is 10.5 ± 0.7 yr, and its harmonic amplitude is 1.7 G. The magnetic flux of spots and active regions makes B ₀ almost twice the field strength in the “normal” photosphere at the solar minimum, i.e., for the “quiet” Sun.     

Dynamics of the photospheric magnetic field in the vicinity of the solar equator

SOHO-MDI daily magnetic field synoptic data (a 14-year series of daily maps of the solar magnetic field intensity B available at the site ) have been used to analyze the dynamics of the photospheric magnetic field in the vicinity of the solar equator. The standard deviation s _B of the field B calculated over areas of tens of square degrees on the solar disk was taken as a basic index. An 11-year variation similar to that observed at higher latitudes is observed in the vicinity of the equator, and is similar for weak and strong fields; i.e., the solar cycle exists in the sunspot-free zone. New qualitative data support the idea that the weak background magnetic field increases toward the solar limb. This angular dependence suggests the existence of a transverse component of the background field. The magnetic fields in the vicinity of the equator were significantly different in the initial phases of Cycles 23 and 24. Annual variations of s _B were observed near the center of the solar disk. These variations are due to two factors: the annual variation of the distance from the equator to the disk center and the increase of s _B with with distance from the equator. Reliable detection of these variations is an evidence of high accuracy of the s _B estimates.     

青海德令哈地区近400年来的降水量变化与太阳活动

使用多种数学统计方法分析了德令哈地区降水量变化与太阳活动之间的关系,发现近400年来降水量的长期变化与太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和太阳黑子周期上升支长度之间存在着较好的反相关关系,当SCL偏短、太阳黑子周期上升支长度偏短时,太阳活动偏强,德令哈地区降水量偏多,反之偏少。功率谱和小波分析发现降水量序列中存在着与太阳活动的多种周期相一致的周期,对降水量与太阳活动在不同时间尺度上周期变化之间的关系进行了详细分析。交叉小波分析发现太阳活动主要在百年左右尺度的周期变化上影响德令哈地区降水量的长期变化,太阳活动周期变化的信号越强,对降水量变化的影响越大。文章最后对太阳活动影响德令哈地区降水量变化的可能机制进行了探讨。     

Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique

A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models.The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals.It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.     

Characteristic of plasma bubbles observed by DMSP in the topside ionosphere during the year 2005

To study the characteristic of plasma bubbles in the topside ionosphere during the solar minima, we have analyzed a large database of post-sunset plasma density measurement acquired during ∼5104 equatorial crossings made by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F14 in 2005. On 675 of these crossings, equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) events were observed as intervals of depleted and irregular plasma densities that degrade communication and navigation signals. We have analyzed these EPB events to study their distributions with month, season and longitude. To test for possible dependence of EPB occurrence at topside altitudes on the level of magnetic activity, we compared the distributions of one year database with those of Kp index at the time of equatorial crossings by the DMSP satellites. We also examined the response of the evening sector, low-latitude ionosphere during eight magnetic storms with minimum Dst ≤ −100 nT. We observed that EPBs occurred regularly during geomagnetic storms, especially in the initial and main phases but can be suppressed sometimes for days, after prolonged activity during recovery phases. These results are discussed according to the other reported results.     

Long-term variations in the asymmetry of the magnetic field of the sun and heliosphere

The asymmetry of the magnetic field of the Sun and its manifestation in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are studied. The dominant magnetic polarity of the radial component of the IMF alternates from cycle to cycle, but with an overall systematic dominance of polarity directed toward the Sun. The global asymmetry is also manifest in the component of the IMF perpendicular to the plane of the solar equator. The dominance of positive values of B _z together with an appreciable linear trend in the cumulative sum of this quantity is interpreted as a manifestation of a relic solar magnetic field. The strength of this relic magnetic field near the Earth is estimated to be 0.048 ± 0.015 nT, based on the growth of the linear component of the cumulative sum of B _z . Time intervals, in which negative values of the B _z component of the IMF dominate and enhanced geomagnetic activity is observed, are identified. Our analysis of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields in an integrated representation has enabled us to compare various types of measurements and estimate their stability.     

Variations of the dipole magnetic moment of the sun during the solar activity cycle

Observations of the large-scale solar magnetic field (synoptic maps) and measurements of the magnetic field of the Sun as a star (the total magnetic field) are used to determine the dipole magnetic moment and direction of the dipole field for three successive solar cycles. Both the magnetic moment and its vertical and horizontal components vary regularly during the cycle, but never disappear completely. A wavelet analysis of the total magnetic field shows that the amplitude of the 27-day variations of this field is very closely related to the magnetic moment of the horizontal dipole. The reversal of the global dipole field corresponds to a change in the inclination of its axis and occurs in a series of steps lasting one to two years rather than continuously. Before the onset of the reversal, the dipole axis precesses relative to the solar rotational axis, then shifts in a meridianal plane, reaching very low latitudes, where a substantial shift in longitude then begins. These results are discussed in connection with helioseismological data indicating the existence of oscillations with a period of about 1.3 yr and properties of dynamo processes for the case of an inclined rotator.     

Can Superflares Occur on the Sun? A View from Dynamo Theory

Recent data from the Kepler mission has revealed the occurrence of superflares in Sun-like stars which exceed by far any observed solar flares in released energy. Radionuclide data do not provide evidence for occurrence of superflares on the Sun over the past eleven millennia. Stellar data for a subgroup of superflaring Kepler stars are analysed in an attempt to find possible progenitors of their abnormal magnetic activity. A natural idea is that the dynamo mechanism in superflaring stars differs in some respect from that in the Sun. We search for a difference in the dynamo-related parameters between superflaring stars and the Sun to suggest a dynamo mechanism as close as possible to the conventional solar/stellar dynamo but capable of providing much higher magnetic energy. Dynamo based on joint action of differential rotation and mirror asymmetric motions can in principle result in excitation of two types of magnetic fields. First of all, it is well-known in solar physics dynamo waves. The point is that another magnetic configuration with initial growth and further stabilisation can also be excited. For comparable conditions, magnetic field of second configuration is much stronger than that of the first one just because dynamo does not spend its energy for periodic magnetic field inversions but uses it for magnetic field growth. We analysed available data from the Kepler mission concerning the superflaring stars in order to find tracers of anomalous magnetic activity. As suggested in a recent paper [1], we find that anti-solar differential rotation or anti-solar sign of the mirror-asymmetry of stellar convection can provide the desired strong magnetic field in dynamo models. We confirm this concept by numerical models of stellar dynamos with corresponding governing parameters. We conclude that the proposed mechanism can plausibly explain the superflaring events at least for some cool stars, including binaries, subgiants and, possibly, low-mass stars and young rapid rotators.     

Daily variation of geomagnetic field at low latitudes associated with stable solar wind flow

Mean diurnal variation ofH at low and equatorial latitudes is computed for days in the vicinity of passage of ‘quiet’ solar wind. It is shown that the prepassage magnitude of the diurnal variation is appreciably larger when compared to post-passage intervals at low latitudes but the difference vanishes in the electrojet region. It is suggested that the Sq current system moves towards dip equator immediately following quiet wind conditions relative to earlier periods. It is also shown that during conditions of stable solar wind, the solar wind proton density is inversely related to the electrojet strength, while at low latitudes outside the jet influence, there is no clear association.     

A 27-Day Period in the Flux of Jovian Electrons at the Earth’s Orbit

Variations in the flux of Jovian electrons near the Earth in two synodic cycles of the Earth–Jupiter system, in 1974–1975 and 2007–2008, are considered. In the 1974–1975 cycle, Jovian electrons were observed by IMP-8 during 13 successive solar rotations; electrons were observed by SOHO during 14 solar rotations during the 2007–2008 cycle. The fluxes of these electrons in each solar revolution experienced variations with a characteristic time scale of ~27 ^d , with the maximum flux near the middle of the rotation. The mean period of the variations does not coincide with the synodic period for the Sun–Earth system, equal to 27.3 ^d . The mean variation periods for the electron fluxes were 26.8 ^d in 1974–1975 and 26.1 ^d in 2007–2008. The detected variations are interpreted as reflecting variations in the structure of the solar wind speed and associated magnetic traps, the confinement time of the electrons in thesemagnetic traps, and the influence of the relative positions of the Earth and Jupiter in space.