Monodisperse and polydisperse colloid transport in water-saturated fractures with various orientations: Gravity effects

Numerical experiments are conducted to examine the effects of gravity on monodisperse and polydisperse colloid transport in water-saturated fractures with uniform aperture. Dense colloids travel in water-saturated fractures by advection and diffusion while subject to the influence of gravity. Colloids are assumed to neither attach onto the fracture walls nor penetrate the rock matrix based on the assumptions that they are inert and their size is larger than the pore size of the surrounding solid matrix. Both the size distribution of a colloid plume and colloid density are shown to be significant factors impacting their transport when gravitational forces are important. A constant-spatial-step particle-tracking code simulates colloid plumes with increasing densities transporting in water-saturated fractures while accounting for three forces acting on each particle: a deterministic advective force due to the Poiseuille flow field within the fracture, a random force caused by Brownian diffusion, and the gravitational force. Integer angles of fracture orientation with respect to the horizontal ranging from ±90° are considered: three lognormally distributed colloid plumes with mean particle size of 1 μm (averaged on a volumetric basis) and standard deviation of 0.6, 1.2 and 1.8 μm are examined. Colloid plumes are assigned densities of 1.25, 1.5, 1.75 and 2.0 g/cm³. The first four spatial moments and the first two temporal moments are estimated as functions of fracture orientation angle and colloid density. Several snapshots of colloid plumes in fractures of different orientations are presented. In all cases, larger particles tend to spread over wider sections of the fracture in the flow direction, but smaller particles can travel faster or slower than larger particles depending on fracture orientation angle.     

Contaminant transport in fractured media: analytical solution and sensitivity study considering pulse,Dirac delta and sinusoid input sources

The analytical solution of one‐dimensional transport for a single species radioactive nuclide, considering the decay term in a single fracture for pulse, Dirac delta, and single sinusoid input sources, has been studied using the Laplace transform method. The dimensionless concentration of the radioactive nuclide in the fracture appears to be a function of space, elapsed time, dispersivity, retardation factor, half‐life of the nuclide, and release time. By comparing different values of groundwater velocity, retardation factor, dispersivity, and release time, the results show that the c/c₀ ratio agrees with the nature of the physical and chemical characteristics of the nuclide in fracture transportation. The dimensionless concentration peak value from a small retardation factor is found to be more sensitive, within a time frame ranging from 10 years to a few hundreds years, than the case with a larger retardation factor for H‐3. Except for a small variation in the peak value, the result is almost the same for pulse and sinusoid inputs when considering the H‐3 nuclide. Analytical solutions during the preliminary screening phase are suitable for performance assessment on radioactive waste disposal sites under a one‐dimensional single fracture condition. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Eddy correlations for water flow in a single fracture with abruptly changing aperture

Fluid flow in single fractures with non‐uniform apertures is an important research subject in many disciplines. The abruptly changing aperture is a special case of such non‐uniformity. This paper simulates water flow in a single fracture with abruptly changing aperture (SF‐ACA) using the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) and the Finite Volume Method (FVM). The flow occurs with the Reynolds number (Re) ranging from 5 to 900 and a ratio of aperture change (E) of 3 (E = D/d, where D and d are the larger and smaller apertures, respectively). For Re values between 5 and 100, both LBM and FVM can successfully simulate the eddy development in the expansion regime of an SF‐ACA. Flow with high Re values (up to 900) is simulated by FVM, which appears to be numerically more stable than LBM for high‐Re flow problems studied here. The flow symmetry in the expansion regime breaks at the Re value between 400 and 500. Our simulation result shows a linear relationship between l₁/d and Re at low Re (5–100) or higher Re (110–900) values, where defined as the length from the location of abrupt expansion to the right edge of the first eddy along the flow direction. If considering the simulation results for the entire simulated range of Re (5–900), the l₁/d–Re relationship is better described by a non‐linear logarithmical function. The l₁/d approaches an asymptotic constant at large Re. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contaminant transport in one‐dimensional single fractured media: semi‐analytical solution for three‐member decay chain with pulse and Heaviside input sources

A semi‐analytical solution of the one‐dimensional transport for considering a three‐member decay chain in a single fracture with pulse and Heaviside input sources has been studied using the Laplace transform and its numerical inversion. The results reveal that breakthrough curves of dimensionless concentration for the decay chain of Np‐237, U‐233, and Th‐229 in the fracture can be well demonstrated in the temporal and spatial domains. The conditions with and without retardation effects are also compared. During the preliminary screening phase the solutions are suitable for performance assessment on radioactive waste disposal sites under a one‐dimensional single fracture condition. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two-dimensional modeling of contaminant transport in porous media in the presence of colloids

It has long been known that colloids can facilitate the transport of contaminants in groundwater systems by reducing the effective retardation factor. A significant effort has been devoted to study colloid-facilitated contaminant transport during the past decade. Many of the previous studies were restricted to one-dimensional analyses and comparisons with finite-column experiments. In this work, a two-dimensional numerical model is developed and used to study the different interactions between colloids, contaminants, and porous media under homogeneous conditions. The numerical formulation of the model is based on discretizing mass balance equations and reaction equations using finite differences having a third-order, total variance-diminishing scheme for the advection terms. This scheme significantly reduces numerical dispersion and leads to greater accuracy compared to the standard central-differencing scheme. The model is tested against analytical solutions under simplified conditions as well as against experimental data, and the results are favorable. The model is used to investigate the impact of the various reaction rates and parameter values on the movement of contaminant plumes in two dimensions. The model is also used to investigate the hypothesis that colloids may increase the effective retardation factor of contaminant plumes. The analysis shows that assuming kinetic mass exchange between contaminant and colloids with constant reaction rate coefficients that are not related to the concentrations may lead to inaccurate results. These inaccurate results are exemplified in the finding that under the kinetic assumption the ratio of the initial concentration of colloids to the initial concentration of contaminant does not affect the amount of facilitation or retardation that occurs in the system. It is also found that colloids can increase the effective retardation factor for the contaminant under certain combinations of reaction rates and distribution coefficients. A quantitative empirical expression to identify whether colloids retard or facilitate the contaminant movement is presented.     

Three-dimensional numerical analysis of magma transport through a pre-existing fracture in the crust

Magmas are transported through pre-existing fractures in many repeatedly erupting volcanoes. The study of this special process of magma transport is fundamentally important to understand the mechanisms and conditions of volcanic eruptions. In this paper, we numerically simulate the magma propagation process through a pre-existing vertical fracture in the crust by using the combined finite difference method (FDM), finite element method (FEM) and discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) approach. FDM is used to analyze magma flow in the pre-existing fracture, FEM is used to calculate the opening of the fracture during magma intrusion, and DDA is used to deal with the contact of the closed fracture surfaces. Both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) examples are presented. Parametric studies are carried out to investigate the influence of various physical and geometric parameters on the magma transport in the pre-existing fracture. We have considered magma chamber depth ranging from 7 km to 10 km under the crust surface, magma viscosity ranging from 2 × 10⁻² to 2 × 10⁻⁷ MPa s, and the density difference between the magma and host rock ranging from 300 to 700 kg/m³. The numerical results indicate that (1) the fluid pressure p varies gradually along the depth, (2) the shape of the magma body during propagation is like a torch bar and its width ranges from 2 m to 4 m approximately in the 3D case and 10 m to 50 m in the 2D case for the same physical parameters used, (3) the crust surface around the pre-existing fracture begins to increase on both sides of the fracture, forms a trough between them, then gradually uplifts during the transport of the magma, and finally takes the shape of a crater when the magma reaches the surface. We have also examined the influence of physical and geometric parameters on the minimum overpressure for magma transport in the 3D case. The numerical results show that our numerical technique presented in this paper is an effective tool for simulating magma transport process through pre-existing fractures in the crust.     

Modelling transport dynamics of contaminated sediments in the headwater of a hydropower plant at the Upper Rhine River

Sediments are an essential habitat compartment in rivers, which is a subject to dynamic transport processes. In many rivers, the fine deposited sediments are contaminated with heavy metals and organic compounds. Contaminated deposits are considered as potential hot spots because of the risk of the mobilization under erosive hydraulic conditions. Numerical models for particulate contaminant transport are then necessary and can be applied to estimate and predict the potential impact of mobilized contaminants as an important contribution to sediment management. This paper focuses on the quantification of the amount of contaminated sediments resuspended during the extreme flood event in 1999 and the prediction of deposition one year after the flood event. To assess such erosive flood event, a 2D numerical transport model was developed to analyse the dynamics of erosion and sedimentation processes in the headwater of a cross dam at the Upper Rhine River. The dam consists of a weir, a hydropower plant, and a navigation lock. As the weir is operating only for flood management, a huge amount of sediment highly contaminated with the hexachlorobenzene (HCB) was deposited in the weir zone. Therefore, numerical simulations were performed to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of deposited contaminated sediments as depending on the river discharge and its distribution to the hydraulic structures. The numerical investigation presented here is taken as a retrospective analysis of the contaminated sediment dynamics in the headwater to improve future sediment management.     

Groundwater,salt and contaminant transport in a coastal aquifer system with a low-permeability layer in the intertidal zone

Low-permeability layer (LPL), formed by natural deposit or artificial reclamation and commonly found below the intertidal zone of coastal groundwater system, can retard the ingress of seawater and contaminants, and shorten the travel time of the land-sourced contaminant to the marine environment compared with a homogenous sandy coastal aquifer. However, there is limited understanding on how an intertidal LPL, a condition occurred in a coastal aquifer at Moreton Bay, Australia, influences the groundwater and contaminant transport across the shallow beach aquifer system. We characterized the aquifer hydrological parameters, monitored the in situ groundwater heads, and constructed a 2-D numerical model to analyses the cross-shore hydrological processes in this stratified system. The calibrated model suggests that in the lower aquifer, the inland-source fresh groundwater flowed horizontally towards the sea, upwelled along the freshwater–saltwater interface, and exited the aquifer at the shore below the LPL. Whereas in the upper aquifer, the tidally driven seawater circulation formed a barrier that prevented fresh groundwater from horizontal transport and discharge to the beach above the LPL, thereby directing its leakage to the lower aquifer. A contaminant represented by a conservative tracer was ‘released’ the upper aquifer in the model and results showed that the spreading extent of the contaminant plume, the maximum rate of contaminant discharge to the ocean, and its plume length decreased compared with a simulation case in a homogenous sandy aquifer. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the characteristics of the LPL, including its continuity and hydraulic conductivity, which were found to vary along the beach at Moreton Bay. The result shows that with a lower hydraulic conductivity and continuous layer of LPL reduced the groundwater exchange and contaminant transport between upper and lower aquifer. The findings from the combined field and modelling investigations on the impact of an intertidal LPL on coastal aquifer systems highlight its significant implications to alter the groundwater and mass transport across the land–ocean interface.     

Deposition and re-entrainment dynamics of microbes and non-biological colloids during non-perturbed transport in porous media in the presence of an energy barrier to deposition

This paper examines the non-perturbed deposition and re-entrainment dynamics of biological and non-biological colloids in porous media in the presence of an energy barrier to deposition at the grain surface. Deposition and re-entrainment rate coefficients were determined from numerical simulation of breakthrough–elution behavior and the profiles of retained colloids. We present composite trends from original and previously published data for biological and non-biological colloids which demonstrate that hydrodynamic drag mitigates deposition and drives re-entrainment of both biological and non-biological colloids in the presence of an energy barrier under non-perturbed conditions. Original data is presented for two sizes of colloids (1.1 and 5.7 μm microspheres) under a variety of ionic strength and fluid velocity conditions to examine the torque balance governing re-entrainment of colloids attached to the grain surfaces. The analysis indicates that in the presence of an energy barrier to deposition, hydrodynamic drag may influence deposition and re-entrainment of colloids associated directly with the grain surface via primary energy minima. However, the hydrodynamic field would also be expected to influence deposition and re-entrainment of colloids associated with the surface via secondary energy minima. Hence, the observed influences of fluid velocity are consistent with colloid association via either mechanism. These results call for the development of colloid transport theories that explicitly account for the influence of the hydrodynamic field at the grain surface.     

Modeling the effects of nonlinear equilibrium sorption on the transport of solute plumes in saturated heterogeneous porous media

Transport of sorbing solutes in 2D steady and heterogeneous flow fields is modeled using a particle tracking random walk technique. The solute is injected as an instantaneous pulse over a finite area. Cases of linear and Freundlich sorption isotherms are considered. Local pore velocity and mechanical dispersion are used to describe the solute transport mechanisms at the local scale. This paper addresses the impact of the degree of heterogeneity and correlation lengths of the log-hydraulic conductivity field as well as negative correlation between the log-hydraulic conductivity field and the log-sorption affinity field on the behavior of the plume of a sorbing chemical. Behavior of the plume is quantified in terms of longitudinal spatial moments: center-of-mass displacement, variance, 95% range, and skewness. The range appears to be a better measure of the spread in the plumes with Freundlich sorption because of plume asymmetry. It has been found that the range varied linearly with the travelled distance, regardless of the sorption isotherm. This linear relationship is important for extrapolation of results to predict behavior beyond simulated times and distances. It was observed that the flow domain heterogeneity slightly enhanced the spreading of nonlinearly sorbing solutes in comparison to that which occurred for the homogeneous flow domain, whereas the spreading enhancement in the case of linear sorption was much more pronounced. In the case of Freundlich sorption, this enhancement led to further deceleration of the solute plume movement as a result of increased retardation coefficients produced by smaller concentrations. It was also observed that, except for plumes with linear sorption, correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the sorption affinity fields had minimal effect on the spatial moments of solute plumes with nonlinear sorption.     

Proton transport model in the ionosphere. 2. Influence of magnetic mirroring and collisions on the angular redistribution in a proton beam

We investigate the influence of magnetic mirroring and elastic and inelastic scattering on the angular redistribution in a proton/hydrogen beam by using a transport code in comparison with observations. H-emission Doppler profiles viewed in the magnetic zenith exhibit a red-shifted component which is indicative of upward fluxes. In order to determine the origin of this red shift, we evaluate the influence of two angular redistribution sources which are included in our proton/hydrogen transport model. Even though it generates an upward flux, the redistribution due to magnetic mirroring effect is not sufficient to explain the red shift. On the other hand, the collisional angular scattering induces a much more significant red shift in the lower atmosphere. The red shift due to collisions is produced by < 1 -keV protons and is so small as to require an instrumental bandwidth <0.2nm. This explains the absence of measured upward proton/hydrogen fluxes in the Proton I rocket data because no useable data concerning protons < 1 keV are available. At the same time, our model agrees with measured ground-based H-emission Doppler profiles and suggests that previously reported red shift observations were due mostly to instrumental bandwidth broadening of the profile. Our results suggest that Doppler profile measurements with higher spectral resolution may enable us to quantify better the angular scattering in proton aurora.     

Effects of spatially variable ground motions on the seismic response of a skewed, multi-span, RC highway bridge

This paper presents a study of the influence of spatially variable ground motions on the longitudinal seismic response of a short, three-span, 30-degree skewed, reinforced concrete highway bridge. Linear and nonlinear finite element models are created for the bridge and linear elastic and nonlinear inelastic time history analyses conducted. Three different types of illustrative excitations are considered: The first utilizes spatially variable ground motions incorporating the effects of variable soil conditions, loss of coherency and wave passage as input motions at the structures' supports. The time history with the smallest peak displacement and the one with the largest peak displacement from the spatially variable ones are then used as uniform input motions at all bridge supports. The comparative analysis of the bridge model shows that the uniform ground motion input with the largest peak displacement cannot provide conservative seismic demands for all structural components—in a number of cases it results in lower response than that predicted by spatially variable motions. The present results indicate that there is difficulty in establishing uniform input motions that would have the same effect on the response of bridge models as spatially variable ones. Consequently, spatially variable input motions need to be applied as excitations at the bridge supports.     

Effect of fracture pressure depletion regimes on the dual-porosity shape factor for flow of compressible fluids in fractured porous media

A precise value of the matrix-fracture transfer shape factor is essential for modeling fluid flow in fractured porous media by a dual-porosity approach. The slightly compressible fluid shape factor has been widely investigated in the literature. In a recent study, we have developed a transfer function for flow of a compressible fluid using a constant fracture pressure boundary condition [Ranjbar E, Hassanzadeh H, Matrix-fracture transfer shape factor for modeling flow of a compressible fluid in dual-porosity media. Adv Water Res 2011;34(5):627-39. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.02.012]. However, for a compressible fluid, the consequence of a pressure depletion boundary condition on the shape factor has not been investigated in the previous studies. The main purpose of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the effect of the fracture pressure depletion regime on the shape factor for single-phase flow of a compressible fluid. In the current study, a model for evaluation of the shape factor is derived using solutions of a nonlinear diffusivity equation subject to different pressure depletion regimes. A combination of the heat integral method, the method of moments and Duhamel’s theorem is used to solve this nonlinear equation. The developed solution is validated by fine-grid numerical simulations. The presented model can recover the shape factor of slightly compressible fluids reported in the literature. This study demonstrates that in the case of a single-phase flow of compressible fluid, the shape factor is a function of the imposed boundary condition in the fracture and its variability with time. It is shown that such dependence can be described by an exponentially declining fracture pressure with different decline exponents. These findings improve our understanding of fluid flow in fractured porous media.     

Sediment transport under the presence and absence of emergent vegetation in a natural alluvial channel from Brazil

Studies regarding the influence of emergent vegetation on sediment transport are scarce and have mainly focused on flume conditions. To fill this gap and also meet the international need, we aimed to evaluate the influence of emergent vegetation (Echinodorus macrophyllus) on sediment transport of Capibaribe River, Brazil. Bedload and suspended sediment measurements were carried out using the US BLH 84 and US DH 48 samplers, respectively. Measurements of stem diameter, stem spacing and plant density were performed in conjunction with flow and sediment field measurements. Based on our results, 0.45 m s ? 1 was the threshold of mean flow velocity supported by E. macrophyllus under field conditions. This value can be helpful for other rivers with gravel-bed river to armoured layer ratio (AR ? D50-surface)/D50-subsurface ? 12.50) – natural conditions observed in Capibaribe River – or where the vegetation can provide positive effects, such as increase the bed stability, assist water restoration/rehabilitation and decrease water turbidity. Our results can hopefully be used in engineering practice and ecosystem management. In general, both the drag coefficient and drag force varied inversely and directly with the mean flow velocity and vegetation density, respectively. The vegetation resistance force was inversely proportional to the bedload transport owing to the resistance caused by emergent vegetation. This finding was supported by the clear decoupling between nonvegetated and emergent vegetated conditions indicated by cluster analysis. The study results provided a reasonable understanding of the interaction between emergent vegetation, water flow and sediment transport in the Capibaribe River.&2016 International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation/the World Association     

Percolation theory as a tool for imitation of fracture process in rocks

The statistical models of earthquake focal processes covering topological, kinetic, energetic and scaling aspects of the phenomenon are considered on the basis of the percolation and reliability theories. It is shown that these models do not contradict the basic experimental data of physics of fracture and seismology. Some predictive signs are also considered.     

Biodegradation and transport of benzene,toluene, and xylenes in a simulated aquifer: comparison of modelled and experimental results

Both laboratory experiments and numerical modelling were conducted to study the biodegradation and transport of benzene–toluene–xylenes (BTX) in a simulated semi‐confined aquifer. The factors incorporated into the numerical model include advection, hydrodynamic dispersion, adsorption, and biodegradation. The various physico‐chemical parameters required by the numerical model were measured experimentally. In the experimental portion of the study, BTX compounds were introduced into the aquifer sand. After the contaminants had been transported through the system, BTX concentrations were measured at 12 equally spaced wells. Subsequently, microorganisms obtained from the activated sludge of a sewage treatment plant and cultured in BTX mixtures were introduced into the aquifer through the 12 sampling wells. The distribution data for BTX adsorption by the aquifer sand form a nonlinear isotherm. The degree of adsorption by the sand varies, depending on the composition of the solute. The degradation time, measured from the time since the bacteria were added to the aquifer until a specific contaminant was no longer detectable, was 35–42 h for BTX. The dissolved oxygen, after degradation by BTX compounds and bacteria, was consumed by about 40–60% in the entire simulated aquifer; thus the aerobic conditions were maintained. This study provides insights for the biodegradation and transport of BTX in aquifers by numerical modelling and laboratory experiments. Experimental and numerical comparisons indicate that the results by Monod degradation kinetics are more accurate than those by the first‐order degradation kinetics. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Roughness scale dependence of the relationship between tracer longitudinal dispersion and Peclet number in variable‐aperture fractures

The relationship between the longitudinal dispersion (D_L) and Peclet number (Pe) is crucial for predicting and simulating tracer through the variable‐aperture fracture. In this study, the roughness of the self‐affine fracture wall was decomposed into primary roughness (relatively large‐scale waviness) and secondary roughness (relatively small‐scale waviness) by a multiscaled wavelet analysis technique. Based on the complete dispersion mechanism (diffusion, macrodispersion, and Taylor dispersion) in the variable‐aperture fracture, three relationships (second‐order, power‐law, and linear relationships) between the D_L and Pe were investigated at large and small scales, respectively. Our results showed that the primary roughness mostly controlled the Taylor dispersion mechanism, whereas the secondary roughness was a dominant factor for the macrodispersion mechanism. Increasing the Hurst exponent and removing the secondary roughness led to the decreasing range of Pe where macrodispersion mechanism dominated the solute transport. It was found that estimating the D_L from the power‐law relationship based on Taylor dispersion theory resulted in considerable errors, even in the range of Pe where the Taylor dispersion mechanism dominated. The exponent of the power‐law relationship increased as the secondary roughness was removed. Analysing the linear relationship between the D_L and Pe revealed that the longitudinal dispersivity α_L increased linearly. However, this linear increase became weak as the Taylor dispersion mechanism dominated. In the range of Pe where the macrodispersion mechanism dominated, increasing the Hurst exponent caused the increase of α_L and the secondary roughness played a significant role in enhancing the α_L. As the Taylor dispersion mechanism dominated, the α_L was insensitive to the influence of multiscale roughness in variable‐aperture fractures.     

Application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to volcano mapping in the humid tropics: a case study in East Java, Indonesia

 Volcanoes in humid tropical environments are frequently cloud covered, typically densely vegetated and rapidly eroded. These factors complicate field and laboratory studies and even the basic identification of potentially active volcanoes. Numerous previous studies have highlighted the potential value of radar remote sensing for volcanology in equatorial regions. Here, cloud- and vegetation-penetrating L_HH-band (λ≈24 cm) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) are used to investigate persistently active volcanoes and prehistoric calderas in East Java, Indonesia. The L_HH-band JERS-1 SAR produces high-spatial-resolution (18 m) imagery with relatively high incidence angle that highlights structures and topographic variations at or greater than the wavelength scale while minimising geometrical distortions such as layover and foreshortening. These images, along with Internet browse data derived from the Canadian RADARSAT mission, provide new evidence relating regional tectonics to volcanism throughout East Java. Volcanic events, such as caldera collapse at the Tengger caldera, appear to have been partly controlled by northwest-aligned faults related to intra-arc sedimentary basins. Similar regional controls appear important at historically active Lamongan volcano, which is encircled by numerous flank maars and cinder cones. A previously undocumented pyroclastic sheet and debris avalanche deposit from the Jambangan caldera complex is also manifested in the synoptic radar images. At the currently active Semeru volcano these data permit identification of recent pyroclastic flow and lahar deposits. Radar data therefore offer a valuable tool for mapping and hazard assessment at late Quaternary volcanoes. The criteria developed in the analysis here could be applied to other regions in the humid tropics. Received: 25 June 1998 / Accepted: 20 January 1999     

试论岩石破裂和破坏的差异对地震模拟及前兆研究的影响

本文分析讨论了实验地震学研究中很少论及的岩石破裂和破坏的很大差异,指出仅以岩石破坏实验模拟地震特别是前兆研究存在诸多不足.建议以岩石破裂来模拟地震特别是前兆研究,由此可给出较为完整的地震活动图像.岩石破坏前兆已研究的相当多,但大破裂前则未必出现如破坏那样的前兆.大破裂前兆特征比破坏前兆更能反映地震前兆的复杂性,其识别更难,更符合实际.同时议及以岩样的整体黏滑模拟地震研究特别是前兆研究的不足.建议加强对局部现象——大破裂（或黏滑）的前兆特征、预测方法的深入仔细研究.