农业非点源污染模型AnnAGNPS适用性检验

以大沽河典型小流域为研究区,借助GIS和相关资料提取参数,建立模型数据库。在此基础上,采用2001～2002年小流域出口径流量、泥沙和总氮监测数据优化参数、校准和验证模型,分析AnnAGNPS模型在大沽河典型小流域的适用性。结果表明,模型对日均径流量、泥沙及总氮输出的模拟能力较差,而对年均污染负荷估算结果比较理想。当前AnnAGNPS模型主要被用于评价流域非点源污染的长期影响及最佳管理措施的选择精度足矣。     

南水北调中线工程水源区老鹳河流域农业非点源污染关键源区识别

识别关键源区可以为非点源污染的优先管理和控制提供决策依据。本次研究以南水北调中线工程水源区老鹳河流域为研究区,比较全面地考虑了氮磷流失的主要影响因素,建立了老鹳河流域农业非点源污染关键源区识别模型,进行流域农业非点源污染风险评价和污染关键源区识别。结果表明,流域内处于高风险区以上的地区占流域总面积的13.4%,主要分布于老鹳河中上游地区,相对集中分布于老鹳河干流及其支流沿河地区,零星分布于西峡境内东部和北部局部,为该流域地表水环境农业非点源污染的关键源区。其中,污染风险最高的区域只占流域总面积的3.75%,可划定为重点关键源区进行重点治理,同时应兼顾污染风险次之的区域。基于GIS的指标体系法能够快速而方便地识别流域非点源污染高风险区域并量化污染风险大小,从宏观上掌握非点源污染的空间分布特征并实施有效管理和治理。     

一维水质模型结合改进的输出系数法在流域非点源污染负荷估算中的应用

非点源污染是导致流域水体水质恶化的关键污染来源之一,为了估算流域非点源污染负荷,本文提出将一维水质模型应用于分离监测断面点源污染负荷和非点源污染负荷的方法,并结合了改进的输出系数法,以COD_Mn和NH₃-N为代表性指标,将该模型应用于潮河下游流域,并与传统的水文分割法结合改进的输出系数法估算非点源污染负荷的结果进行对比。结果表明,一维水质模型结合改进的输出系数法估算流域非点源COD_Mn和NH₃-N污染负荷模拟值的纳什系数均在0.800以上,具有良好的模拟精度,同时避免了水文分割法无法较好地模拟枯水期非点源污染负荷的弊端。该方法在运用SWAT（soil and water assessment tool）模型预测得到水文数据的情况下,能够预测流域非点源污染负荷,作为SWAT模型对COD模拟的补充。     

自贡市旭水河流域土地利用/覆被对非点源污染负荷的影响

水体污染的首要原因之一是面源污染,地表过多的营养物质通过地表径流进入水体从而产生污染。这里应用RS和GIS技术,结合输出系统模型,对贡井区旭水河流域非点源污染负荷进行多时相空间分布模拟。结果表明:贡井区非点源污染负荷TN、TP由于当地土地开发利用的缘故,从2007年到2009年呈逐渐上升趋势;在空间分布上TN、TP分布呈越来越离散趋势。研究表明:不同土地利用类型对非点源污染负荷的贡献率也存在着显著差异。     

SWAT模型在大洋河流域非点源污染模拟中的运用研究

基于SWAT模型,以大洋河流域为研究流域,定量模拟了大洋河流域2000-2010年非点源污染,研究结果表明:SWAT模型适合于大洋河流域的非点源污染模拟,模型在参数率定期和验证模拟总氮和总磷相对误差均小于30%,模拟确定性系数达到0.5以上,满足流域非点源污染模拟精度要求;大洋河流域总氮和总磷峰值主要集中在7-9月份。研究成果对于大洋河流域水环境保护和治理提供参考价值。     

基于PCRaster的流域非点源氮磷负荷估算

以太湖流域上游的西笤溪流域为研究区,应用动态环境模拟语言PCRaster构建月水文和氮磷营养物质输出模型,分析流域内氮磷输出的时空分布特征。以输出系数法为基础,将分布式水文模型与非点源负荷模型相结合,应用地理信息技术构建基于栅格的非点源污染模拟模型,根据1988~2007年的水文、水质实测数据对模型进行率定和验证,定量分析西笤溪流域非点源污染负荷量与氮磷输出的空间分布。研究结果显示:基于单元网格的月水文模型在该流域具有较好的应用效果,率定和验证期的Nash系数和线性相关系数R2均超过了0.80。应用模型估算西笤溪流域非点源污染2002~2005年总氮年输出量为1 670~2 035t/a,2002~2007年总磷输出量为102~164t/a。氮磷负荷的空间分布表明以稻麦或水稻/油菜轮作的农田是非点源污染的最主要来源。     

多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中的应用展望

对非点源污染进行定量化和有效控制的方法是通过非点源污染负荷模型对各类非点源的形成、迁移转化以及负荷量进行模拟。然而,流域非点源污染模型的不确定性是单一模型模拟污染负荷面临的重大挑战。借鉴多模型方法在降低水文模型不确定性方面的优越性,通过分析水文模型与非点源污染模型的相通性,提出多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中应用的基本思路并分析了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷估算中面临的挑战,总结了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷应用中的重点和难点问题。     

非点源污染的流域分配方法研究

农业非点源污染的流域分配研究对于提高环境质量具有重要的现实意义。根据遥感技术得到的土地利用类型、河网、道路、圩区等信息,结合地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析功能,对非点源污染负荷进行了定量计算及可视化分析,在此基础上,得到各主要河段的污染分配量,这可为寻求流域内合理的土地利用模式和农业非点源污染排放总量的控制方法提供决策依据。     

我国农村水环境非点源污染研究进展

农业非点源污染是导致水质污染最主要原因之一。我国农村非点源污染研究之初采用的研究方法主要有两种，一种是应用与水文模型紧密相关的模型来模拟和估算非点源污染负荷；另一种是通用土壤流失法。最近又提出了一种简便易用的流域非点源污染负荷估算方法－平均浓度法。将农业非点源污染负荷与3S技术结合、与水质模型对接用于流域水质管理成为农业非点源污染研究的新生长点。近年来，农村非点源污染研究也开始探索非点源污染负荷与河流水质模型接口问题。     

颗粒态氮磷负荷模型研究

为研究妫水河流域的颗粒态氮磷非点源污染来源,以控制非点源污染,在官厅水库周围进行了野外人工降雨试验。试验数据表明,氮磷输移率与产沙率具有很好的相关性,颗粒态氮、磷的平均相关系数分别为0.9594和0.9772。建立了新的颗粒态氮磷负荷模型,其中富集系数等于泥沙中总氮总磷百分含量与土壤中百分含量之比。根据妫水河流域的土壤图、土地利用图及数字高程模型,应用新的模型研究了妫水河流域颗粒态氮磷污染负荷的空间分布。结果表明,颗粒态氮磷主要来自地表植被覆盖差的丘陵和山地。     

水环境非点源污染数学模型研究进展

水环境非点源污染正日益受到人们的重视，成为国内外学者所关注的热点领域。对水文模型、非点源模型的研究现状做了归纳分析，尤其是对模型与RS、GIS的集成进行了探讨，论述了两者结合的意义和重要性，提出了结合的层次性，归纳了结合的多种方式。最后对非点源污染模型的发展前景进行了分析和预测。     

非点源污染空间连续分布模型研究

非点源污染负荷的离散型分布不利于深入研究非点源污染与社会、环境等因素的关系,因此非常必要对其进行空间连续分布处理,但在对离散变量连续化过程中应注意尺度和信息增减等问题.以非点源污染中人畜产污为例,通过构建空间连续分布模型模拟计算人畜产污的数量及其分布.从验证的结果来看,这种非点源污染空间连续分布处理方法不但是必要的,也是可行的.     

基于低影响开发的城市非点源污染控制技术及其相关进展

低影响开发(low impact development,简称LID)技术与传统城市非点源控制技术相比,具有可持续、分散化、节省投资、与场地开发和景观设计相结合等特点,近年来在国外城市雨洪控制利用和非点源污染控制中得到了迅速发展和广泛应用。首先系统介绍了LID技术的内涵、特点以及与城市传统雨洪污染控制方法的区别,从理念上分析了LID和绿色建筑及绿色基础设施建设体系的区别和联系;然后根据城市非点源污染的产生、迁移路径,将LID划分为单个技术—措施组合—控制体系3个层次,分别介绍了其技术体系和评估方法;进而简要介绍了LID在国内外的相关实践;最后提出了我国开展基于LID的城市非点源污染控制的相关建议。     

“Source–sink” landscape pattern analysis of nonpoint source pollution using remote sensing techniques

Research on the “source–sink” landscape pattern of nonpoint source pollution is of great significance to natural resource management, environmental protection, water quality improvement, nonpoint source pollution prevention and control, and ecological security pattern construction. Remote sensing has proven by many scholars as a practical and effective technique to study landscape patterns and nonpoint source pollution. However, there are still many obstacles to the application of remote sensing technology, such as classification errors, scale effects and the issue, whereby landscape metrics cannot describe the landscape information comprehensively. In view of the characteristics of the macroscale and multi-scale of remote sensing, the analysis of landscape patterns is the basis for the study of the relationship research between patterns and ecological processes, and it is also the key to the study of landscape dynamics and functions. This paper attempts to summarize the representative results and the challenges of remote sensing in the study of the source and sink landscape of the nonpoint source pollution landscape and provide corresponding solutions as a reference for future research.     

Integrated assessment of nonpoint source pollution of a drinking water reservoir in a typical acid rain region

Nonpoint source pollution generated by agricultural production and city construction has been studied for decades, but very few researches have been conducted on the regional assessment of nonpoint source pollution in the acid rain regions, particularly relating to the control of pollutant in the drinking water source areas. In this study, an integrated framework was applied to estimate nitrogen and phosphorous load in a typical acid rain influenced reservoir, China. The method comprised three separate steps: (1) a watershed model—soil and water assessment tools—was used to estimate nitrogen and phosphorous load from the upper stream watershed; (2) collection of acid rain samples, together with a GIS-based calculation to estimate the atmospheric deposition flux; (3) introduction of a simple export coefficient method. The case study indicated atmospheric deposition accounted for 56.75 % of total nitrogen load during the year, with the highest level of deposition load taking place during the wet season. Maximum phosphorous (93.37 %) was linked to the upstream runoff, originating from the upper watershed. Further analysis by watershed model and export coefficient method indicated forest exported most total nitrogen (27.72 %) and total phosphorous (58.78 %) in the upstream watershed. Results indicated that in the region influenced by acid rain, the nitrogen management should encompass the management of land use practices and the control of acid rain in catchments feeding into drinking water storage areas. It could be inferred that NOX emissions might cause both globe warming and eutrophication in the drinking water sources. This paper could provide a basis for water quality management in such regions.     

Small-scale watershed extended method for non-point source pollution estimation in part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

Non-point source (NPS) pollution has been increasingly recognized as a major contributor to the declining quality of aquatic environment in recent years. Because of the data shortage, the non-point source loads estimation in the large-scale watershed is always difficult in most developing countries. In this study, small-scale watershed extended method (SWEM) was introduced with a case study in the middle part of Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR). Small-scale watershed extended method is the method which uses physical-based models in some small typical catchments of the targeted large watershed, and then the parameters obtained from those small catchments are extended to the surrounding area until the non-point source pollution loads in the entire watershed or region are obtained. The selected small catchments should have sufficient data. Here, the middle part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, about 12,500?km², was chosen as the targeted region for the case study. In this region, considering the data availability, Xiaojiang River was screened as a typical watershed and was simulated with Soil and Water Assessment Tool model through accurate parameter calibration and validation. And then the parameter group obtained in Xiaojiang River Watershed was extended to the entire study area to quantify the total non-point source pollution loads. After which, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the non-point source pollution in the middle part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region were analyzed, as well as the pollution from each tributary and different under layer surface conditions. The small-scale watershed extended method provides a practical approach for non-point source pollution loads estimation in the large-scale watershed or region.     

农业区非点源污染潜在危险性评价——以于桥水库流域磷流失为例

在农业非点源污染研究中,确定农业非点源污染的关键源区或危险区域是开展有针对性研究和控制农业非点源污染的首要问题之一.本文在地理信息系统的支持下,综合考虑了影响于桥水库流域农业非点源磷流失的源因子和迁移因子,通过建立评价指标体系,计算磷污染危险性指数,对农业非点源磷流失危险性进行定量化评价,识别具有极高危险性或较高危险性的区域为磷流失的关键源区,将其作为控制和管理的优先区域和重点区域.结果表明:流域中磷流失危险性极高和较高的区域即关键源区不到全流域面积的6.0%,危险性中等的地区占到整个流域面积的20.52%;具有高和中等危险性的地区主要分布在流域河流两岸,且具有极高或较高的土壤有效磷含量或化肥磷施用量或高的土壤侵蚀强度,大部分为流域中部丘陵平原区的农田,少部分为地形较陡的山区农田.     

Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water quality in a drinking water source area,Northern China

Understanding the impacts of climate change on water quality and stream flow is important for management of water resources and environment. Miyun Reservoir is the only surface drinking water source in Beijing, which is currently experiencing a serious water shortage. Therefore, it is vital to identify the impacts of climate change on water quality and quantity of the Miyun Reservoir watershed. Based on long-time-series data of meteorological observation, future climate change scenarios for this study area were predicted using global climate models (GCMs), the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the National Climate Centre/Gothenburg University—Weather Generator (NWG). Future trends of nonpoint source pollution load were estimated and the response of nonpoint pollution to climate change was determined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Results showed that the simulation results of SWAT model were reasonable in this study area. The comparative analysis of precipitation and air temperature simulated using the SDSM and NWG separately showed that both tools have similar results, but the former had a larger variability of simulation results than the latter. With respect to simulation variance, the NWG has certain advantages in the numerical simulation of precipitation, but the SDSM is superior in simulating precipitation and air temperature changes. The changes in future precipitation and air temperature under different climate scenarios occur basically in the same way, that is, an overall increase is estimated. Particularly, future precipitation will increase significantly as predicted. Due to the influence of climate change, discharge, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads from the study area will increase over the next 30 years by model evaluation. Compared to average value of 1961?~?1990, discharge will experience the highest increase (15%), whereas TN and TP loads will experience a smaller increase with a greater range of annual fluctuations of 2021 ~ 2050.