A Bayesian approach to estimating tectonic stress from seismological data

Earthquakes are conspicuous manifestations of tectonic stress, but the non-linear relationships between the stresses acting on a fault plane, its frictional slip, and the ensuing seismic radiation are such that a single earthquake by itself provides little information about the ambient state of stress. Moreover, observational uncertainties and inherent ambiguities in the nodal planes of earthquake focal mechanisms preclude straightforward inferences about stress being drawn on the basis of individual focal mechanism observations. However, by assuming that each earthquake in a small volume of the crust represents a single, uniform state of stress, the combined constraints imposed on that stress by a suite of focal mechanism observations can be estimated. Here, we outline a probabilistic (Bayesian) technique for estimating tectonic stress directions from primary seismological observations. The Bayesian formulation combines a geologically motivated prior model of the state of stress with an observation model that implements the physical relationship between the stresses acting on a fault and the resultant seismological observation. We show our Bayesian formulation to be equivalent to a well-known analytical solution for a single, errorless focal mechanism observation. The new approach has the distinct advantage, however, of including (1) multiple earthquakes, (2) fault plane ambiguities, (3) observational errors and (4) any prior knowledge of the stress field. Our approach, while computationally demanding in some cases, is intended to yield reliable tectonic stress estimates that can be confidently compared with other tectonic parameters, such as seismic anisotropy and geodetic strain rate observations, and used to investigate spatial and temporal variations in stress associated with major faults and coseismic stress perturbations.     

Map-matching algorithm for large-scale low-frequency floating car data

Large-scale global positioning system (GPS) positioning information of floating cars has been recognised as a major data source for many transportation applications. Mapping large-scale low-frequency floating car data (FCD) onto the road network is very challenging for traditional map-matching (MM) algorithms developed for in-vehicle navigation. In this paper, a multi-criteria dynamic programming map-matching (MDP-MM) algorithm is proposed for online matching FCD. In the proposed MDP-MM algorithm, the MDP technique is used to minimise the number of candidate routes maintained at each GPS point, while guaranteeing to determine the best matching route. In addition, several useful techniques are developed to improve running time of the shortest path calculation in the MM process. Case studies based on real FCD demonstrate the accuracy and computational performance of the MDP-MM algorithm. Results indicated that the MDP-MM algorithm is competitive with existing algorithms in both accuracy and computational performance.     

Generating urban road intersection models from low-frequency GPS trajectory data

Detailed real-time road data are an important prerequisite for navigation and intelligent transportation systems. As accident-prone areas, road intersections play a critical role in route guidance and traffic management. Ubiquitous trajectory data have led to a recent surge in road map reconstruction. However, it is still challenging to automatically generate detailed structural models for road intersections, especially from low-frequency trajectory data. We propose a novel three-step approach to extract the structural and semantic information of road intersections from low-frequency trajectories. The spatial coverage of road intersections is first detected based on hotspot analysis and triangulation-based point clustering. Next, an improved hierarchical trajectory clustering algorithm is designed to adaptively extract the turning modes and traffic rules of road intersections. Finally, structural models are generated via K-segment fitting and common subsequence merging. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently handle low-frequency, unstable trajectory data and accurately extract the structural and semantic features of road intersections. Therefore, the proposed method provides a promising solution for enriching and updating routable road data.     

Curvedness feature constrained map matching for low-frequency probe vehicle data

Map matching method is a fundamental preprocessing technique for massive probe vehicle data. Various transportation applications need map matching methods to provide highly accurate and stable results. However, most current map matching approaches employ elementary geometric or topological measures, which may not be sufficient to encode the characteristic of realistic driving paths, leading to inefficiency and inaccuracy, especially in complex road networks. To address these issues, this article presents a novel map matching method, based on the measure of curvedness of Global Positioning System (GPS) trajectories. The curvature integral, which measures the curvedness feature of GPS trajectories, is considered to be one of the major matching characteristics that constrain pairwise matching between the two adjacent GPS track points. In this article, we propose the definition of the curvature integral in the context of map matching, and develop a novel accurate map matching algorithm based on the curvedness feature. Using real-world probe vehicles data, we show that the curvedness feature (CURF) constrained map matching method outperforms two classical methods for accuracy and stability under complicated road environments.     

Seismic ray theory for lithospheric structures with slight lateral variations

b
In this paper, the method of small perturbations is applied to the ray and energy transport equations in an investigation of the effect of weak inhomogeneities on the propagation of seismic rays through a layer of fixed thickness. Just as Aki et al . have used travel-time residuals to infer first-order velocity perturbations in their block-modelling procedure, it is proposed that surface slowness and amplitude data may be used to give additional information about the structure of the velocity perturbations beneath the observer.     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, "relative evaporation" and "relative drying power", a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

Methods for estimating missing data on migrants in the 1991 British census

"This paper discusses the use of suppression to protect data in the Special Migration Statistics, a dataset produced from the 1991 [British] Census, and argues that this procedure prevents accurate analysis of the data. A computer program is described that uses a series of methods to ?recover' data which were suppressed, and to estimate those parts of the data which cannot be recovered.... The program has been used to recover and estimate data successfully, and results include sample tables of migrants between types of districts by ethnicity."     

Methodologies for estimating t*(f) from short-period body waves and regional variations of t*(f) in the United States

Summary. In this paper we discuss some aspects of estimating t * from short-period body waves and present some limits on t* (f) models for the central and south-western United States (CUS and SWUS). We find that for short-period data, with frequencies above 1 or 2 Hz, while the average spectral shape is stable, the smaller details of the spectra are not; thus, only an average t *, and not a frequency-dependent t *, can be derived from such information. Also, amplitudes are extremely variable for short-period data, and thus a great deal of data from many stations and azimuths must be used when amplitudes are included in attenuation studies.
The predictions of three pairs of models for t* (f) in the central and south-western United States are compared with time domain observations of amplitudes and waveforms and frequency domain observations of spectral slopes to put bounds on the attenuation under the different parts of the country. A model with the t * values of the CUS and SWUS converging at low frequencies and differing slightly at high frequencies matches the spectral domain characteristics, but not the time domain amplitudes and waveforms of short-period body waves. A model with t * curves converging at low frequencies, but diverging strongly at high frequencies, matches the time domain observations, but not the spectral shapes. A model with nearly-parallel t* (f) curves for the central and south-western United States satisfies both the time and frequency domain observations.
We conclude that use of both time and frequency domain information is essential in determining t* (f) models. For the central and south-western United States, a model with nearly-parallel t* (f) curves, where Δ t *∼ 0.2 s, satisfies both kinds of data in the 0.3–2 Hz frequency range.     

A procedure for preparing large sets of diatom slides from sediment cores

A procedure is described for making diatom microscopy slides from large numbers of sediment samples, simultaneously. The method uses small sediment samples, small test tubes, small amounts of hydrogen peroxide, no decantings, no centrifuging, and it requires no washing-up of glassware. It is, therefore, fast, cheap, gentle to the diatoms and needs little fume cupboard space.     

An approach for estimating vaccination coverage for communities using school-level data and population mobility information

Childhood vaccination data are made available at a school level in some U.S. states. These data can be geocoded and may be considered as having a high spatial resolution. However, a school only represents the destination location for the set of students who actually reside and interact within some larger areal region, creating a spatial mismatch. Public school districts are often used to represent these regions, but fail to account for private schools and school of choice programs. We offer a new approach for estimating childhood vaccination coverage rates at a community level by integrating school level data with population commuting information. The resulting mobility-adjusted vaccine coverage estimates resolve the spatial mismatch problem and are more aligned with the geographic scale at which public health policies are implemented. We illustrate the utility of our approach using a case study on diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP) vaccination coverage for kindergarten students in California. The modeled community-level DTP coverage estimates yield a statewide coverage of 92.37%, which is highly similar to the 92.44% coverage rate calculated from the original school-level data.     

A method for estimating vegetation change over time and space

Plant diversity is used as an indicator of the well-being of vegetation and ecological systems. Human activities and global change drive vegetation change in composition and competition of species through plant invasions and replacement of existing species on a given scale. However, species diversity indices do not consider the effects of invasions on the diversity value and on the functions of ecosystems. On the other hand, the existing methods for diversity index can not be used directly for cross-scale evaluation of vegetation data. Therefore, we proposed a 3-dimensional model derived from the logistic equation for estimating vegetation change, using native and non-native plant diversity. The two variables, based on the current and the theoretical maximum diversity of native plants on a given scale, and the result of the model are relative values without units, and are therefore scale-independent. Hence, this method developed can be used directly for cross-scale evaluations of vegetation data, and indirectly for estimating ecosystem or environmental change.     

The inverse problem for heat flow data in the presence of thermal conductivity variations

Summary. We demonstrate a method of performing linear programming optimizations of functionals of subsurface temperature, when thermal conductivity is a known piecewise-constant function. Data comprise heat flow measurements on the flat isothermal surface of this structure, within which heat transfer is by steady-state conduction. Two-dimensionality is assumed. The approach involves establishing constraints which demand the continuity of temperature and the normal component of heat flow across all internal boundaries. These unknown functions are expanded as truncated Fourier series whose coefficients become unknowns of the linear programming solution vector; linear relations are established between these coefficients which guarantee harmonicity of temperature in each region of uniform conductivity, as well as the continuity requirements. Variations of the formalism are detailed for three simple types of geometry. As an example the method is applied to a heat flow data set from Sass, Killeen & Mustonen over the Quirke Lake Syncline of Ontario, Canada.     

植被时空变化的估算方法

Plant diversity is used as an indicator of the well-being of vegetation and ecological systems. Human activities and global change drive vegetation change in composition and competition of species through plant invasions and replacement of existing species on a given scale. However, species diversity indices do not consider the effects of invasions on the diversity value and on the functions of ecosystems. On the other hand, the existing methods for diversity index can not be used directly for cross-scale evaluation of vegetation data. Therefore, we proposed a 3-dimensional model derived from the logistic equation for estimating vegetation change, using native and non-native plant diversity. The two variables, based on the current and the theoretical maximum diversity of native plants on a given scale, and the result of the model are relative values without units, and are therefore scale-independent. Hence, this method developed can be used directly for cross-scale evaluations nf vegetation data, and indirectly for estimatinu ecosvstem or environmental chanue.