Analysis of solar radiation over Egypt

Summary  The database utilized in this analysis consisted of daily sunshine duration and hourly global and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface (for Matruh Cairo, and Aswan), and normal incidence beam radiation (for Cairo and Aswan only). Monthly-average hourly and daily values are reported for each of these three types of measured radiation, together with the calculated monthly-average daily values for the components of global radiation, horizontal beam and diffuse radiation. The monthly-average hourly and daily clearsky index values have also been calculated and analyzed. Monthly-average daily frequency distributions of the clearsky index values are reported for each month. The annual-average daily global irradiation values are 19.4, 18.67, and 21.78 MJ/m² and for diffuse irradiation they are 6.34, 6.65 and 6.23 MJ/m² for Matruh, Cairo and Aswan, respectively. For the normal incidence beam irradiation the annual-average daily values are 16.94 and 24.46 MJ/m² for Cairo and Aswan, respectively. The annual-average daily fractions of the direct component of horizontal global radiation are 0.70, 0.61 and 0.72 for the three stations, respectively. The annual-average daily values for the clearsky index are 0.585, 0.566, and 0.648, and the average frequency of clear days annually are 67.3, 42.3 and 77.6% respectively. The annual variations and trend analysis were analyzed for daily global, direct, and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface, daily sunshine duration, and for the daily ratios G/G₀, and D/G for the stations Matruh, Cairo and Aswan. The distribution of these components of radiation and their ratios over the study stations in Egypt is also discussed. The results show that Egypt is characterized by relatively high average-daily radiation rates, both global and direct, and a relatively high frequency of clear days. Cairo, due to its urbanization and high pollution, has relatively low average-daily radiation rates, particularly in direct radiation, and the frequency of clear days. Received February 26, 1998 Revised February 4, 1999     

Variations and trends in global solar radiation for Turkey

Summary Since measured solar radiation data in Turkey have rather high random errors, sunshine duration data covering the period from 1960 through 1994 from 34 stations in Turkey were taken to derive estimates of monthly mean global solar radiation by a quadratic correlation. The least square linear regression method was applied for trend analysis. Significant negative trends of the annual means were observed with 71 percent of the stations A 3.44 percent decrease in global solar radiation was observed over the last 35 years in Turkey. The decrease in solar radiation is an indication of increased air pollution, as statistical parameters show that Turkey is rapidly expanding economically, and thus air quality has deteriorated correspondingly.With 3 Figures     

Uncertainties in solar radiation assessment in the United States using climate models

Climate Dynamics - Solar energy is abundant and offers significant potential for future climate change mitigation. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on surface solar radiation...     

Retrieving daily global solar radiation from routine climate variables

Solar radiation is an important variable for studies related to solar energy applications, meteorology, climatology, hydrology, and agricultural meteorology. However, solar radiation is not routinely measured at meteorological stations; therefore, it is often required to estimate it using other techniques such as retrieving from satellite data or estimating using other geophysical variables. Over the years, many models have been developed to estimate solar radiation from other geophysical variables such as temperature, rainfall, and sunshine duration. The aim of this study was to evaluate six of these models using data measured at four independent worldwide networks. The dataset included 13 stations from Australia, 25 stations from Germany, 12 stations from Saudi Arabia, and 48 stations from the USA. The models require either sunshine duration hours (Ångstrom) or daily range of air temperature (Bristow and Campbell, Donatelli and Bellocchi, Donatelli and Campbell, Hargreaves, and Hargreaves and Samani) as input. According to the statistical parameters, Ångstrom and Bristow and Campbell indicated a better performance than the other models. The bias and root mean square error for the Ångstrom model were less than 0.25 MJ m² day^?1 and 2.25 MJ m² day^?1, respectively, and the correlation coefficient was always greater than 95 %. Statistical analysis using Student’s t test indicated that the residuals for Ångstrom, Bristow and Campbell, Hargreaves, and Hargreaves and Samani are not statistically significant at the 5 % level. In other words, the estimated values by these models are statistically consistent with the measured data. Overall, given the simplicity and performance, the Ångstrom model is the best choice for estimating solar radiation when sunshine duration measurements are available; otherwise, Bristow and Campbell can be used to estimate solar radiation using daily range of air temperature.     

几种水平面太阳总辐射量计算模型的对比分析

利用中国区域1961-1999年39 a间98个常规气象观测数据,建立6个模型分别以天文辐射、干洁大气总辐射和湿洁大气总辐射为起始数据,进行太阳辐射日总量的模拟,对比分析了6个水平面太阳总辐射量计算模型的性能.结果表明:在三种起始数据中,干洁大气总辐射和湿洁大气总辐射均能较好地体现宏观地势对太阳辐射空间分布的影响,以湿洁大气总辐射为起始数据的计算模型拟合精度相对较高.对6个水平面太阳总辐射量计算模型的对比分析发现:2个以日照百分率为主导因子,气温日较差为修正项的综合模型拟合误差最小,精度最高;经典的日照百分率模型次之,但其模型系数最稳定可靠;3个气温日较差模型拟合效果最差.最终选用经验系数稳定、拟合精度较高的日照百分率模型,制作了2001年中国水平面太阳辐射日总量空间分布图.     

两种反演地表净太阳辐射的参数化模式在北京地区的比较

地表净太阳辐射(NSSR)在地表辐射平衡、地-气能量交换、天气预报、气候变化和太阳能利用等研究方面具有重要的作用.利用卫星遥感技术能在广大的空间区域内快速地获取地表净太阳辐射的分布情况,特别是在无人观测的极地和海洋区域.本文基于CERES/SSF卫星数据,分别采用两种地表净太阳辐射(NSSR)的卫星反演参数化模式--Li模式与Masuda模式计算了北京市上甸子地区2005年1、4、7和10月的NSSR,并将反演结果与上甸子大气本底站的实测结果进行了对比分析,并对两种模式进行了修正以更好地反演北京地区的地表净太阳辐射.结果显示:Li模式和Masuda模式反演结果与实测结果间的平均绝对误差在晴空条件下分别为62.2和50.8W/m2,在云天条件下分别为82.1和71.8 W/m2;Li模式相对于Masuda模式具有偏大的趋势,在晴天和云天条件下两者的平均绝对偏差分别为11.5和10.2 W/m2;对Li模式和Masuda模式进行线性拟合回归后能有效减小反演过程中的系统性偏差,修改后的Li模式和Masuda模式在所有天空状况下反演的月平均NSSR值与观测值问的平均绝对误差分别为-1.8和-3.4 W/m2,均方根误差分别为19.6和26.0 W/m2.     

The distribution of solar radiation over the Earth's surface

Summary Records of total solar radiation measured on a horizontal surface (Q) on a monthly basis and of more than three years' duration are available for 88 stations. The stations are mainly concentrated in North America and Europe, and it is not possible to determine the global distribution of radiation directly from these records. Solar radiation and mean cloud amount (C) were therefore related by the quadratic regressionQ=Q _A (0.803–0.340C–0.458C ²), whereQ _A is the maximum possible radiation in the absence of an atmosphere (Angot's values) and the values ofC were obtained from the maps printed inShaw's Manual of Meteorology.Using the known distribution ofQ _A andC, values ofQ were calculated by use of the equation above for each 5° intersection of latitude and longitude over land, and for each 10° intersection over sea. Isopleths ofQ for each successive 50 gcal/cm² day are shown on the 12 monthly maps on which the distribution of radiation over the earth's surface is illustrated. Attention is drawn to certain features of these maps, in particular to the occurrence and movement of zones of high radiation, and a comparison is made of estimated and recorded radiation for twelve stations.

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Zusammenfassung Registrierungen der Monatswerte der Globalstrahlung auf Horizontalfläche (Q) über mindestens drei Jahre liegen für 88 Stationen vor; diese sind vorwiegend auf Nordamerika und Europa konzentriert, und es ist daher nicht möglich, auf Grund davon die gesamte Strahlungsverteilung über die Erde zu bestimmen. Es wird nun mit Hilfe der quadratischen RegressionsgleichungQ=Q _A (0.803–0.340C–0.458C ²) eine Beziehung zwischen GlobalstrahlungQ und mittlerer BewölkungC aufgestellt, woQ _A den Maximalwert der Globalstrahlung bei Fehlen einer Atmosphäre bedeutet und die Konstanten nachAngot und die Bewölkungsdaten nachShaw angenommen sind.Auf Grund der Verteilung vonQ _A undC wurden mit Hilfe der angegebenen Gleichung für jeden Bereich von je 5° Länge und Breite über Land von je 10° über Meer die Werte der Globalstrahlung berechnet. Isoplethen der Globalstrahlung für Stufen von je 20 gcal/cm² Tag sind in 12 Monatskarten wiedergegeben, auf denen die Strahlungsverteilung über die Erde dargestellt ist. Einige Resultate dieser Karten werden besprochen, im speziellen das Auftreten und die Verschiebung der Zonen hoher Strahlung; zudem wird für 12 Stationen eine Vergleichung zwischen der berechneten und der registrierten Strahlung durchgeführt.

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Résumé On possède des enregistrements de 88 stations pour les sommes mensuelles du rayonnement global sur une surface horizontale (Q) pour des périodes d'au moins 3 ans. Ces stations sont concentrées essentiellement en Amérique du Nord et en Europe ce qui ne permet pas d'en déduire la répartition du rayonnement global sur toute la terre. Pour cette raison l'auteur établit, au moyen de l'équation carrée de régressionQ=Q _A (0.803–0.340C–0.458C ²), une relation entre le rayonnement globalQ et la moyenne de la nébulositéC, oùQ _A représente la valeur maximale du rayonnement global sans atmosphère et où les constantes sont données selonAngot, la nébulosité selonShaw.A partir de la répartition deQ et deC et à l'aide de la formule précédente l'auteur a calculé les valeurs du rayonnement global pour des surfaces de 5° de latitude et de longitude sur terre et de 10° sur mer. Des isoplèthes représentent le rayonnement global par échelons de 50 gcal/cm² jour, sur 12 cartes mensuelles qui illustrent sa répartition sur toute la terre. L'auteur discute encore divers résultats de ces cartes, en particulier l'apparition et le déplacement des zones de fort rayonnement, et compare encore pour 12 stations les résultats obtenus par le calcul et par enregistrement.

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With 14 Figures     

Development of statistical seasonal prediction models of Arctic Sea Ice concentration using CERES absorbed solar radiation

Statistical seasonal prediction models for the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) were developed for the late summer (August-October) when the downward trend is dramatic. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) at the top of the atmosphere in June has a significant seasonal leading role on the SIC. Based on the lagged ASR-SIC relationship, two simple statistical models were established: the Markovian stochastic and the linear regression models. Crossvalidated hindcasts of SIC from 1979 to 2014 by the two models were compared with each other and observation. The hindcasts showed general agreement between the models as they share a common predictor, ASR in June and the observed SIC was well reproduced, especially over the relatively thin-ice regions (of one- or multi-year sea ice). The robust predictability confirms the functional role of ASR in the prediction of SIC. In particular, the SIC prediction in October was quite promising probably due to the pronounced icealbedo feedback. The temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted SIC and the observed SIC were 0.79 and 0.82 by the Markovian and regression models, respectively. Small differences were observed between the two models; the regression model performed slightly better in August and September in terms of temporal correlation coefficients. Meanwhile, the prediction skills of the Markovian model in October were higher in the north of Chukchi, the East Siberian, and the Laptev Seas. A strong non-linear relationship between ASR in June and SIC in October in these areas would have increased the predictability of the Markovian model.     

A comparison of several diffuse solar radiation models for Greece

Summary This paper attempts to test the applicability of existing correlation models to the estimation of diffuse radiation with respect to measured values at a station. There are two types of model: The first type depends on the fraction of monthly average daily diffuse radiation to total solar radiation, , as a function of the clearness index, . The second type expresses the fraction or as a function of the sunshine fraction Therefore, it presents statistically based correlations between global radiation and its diffuse component on a horizontal surface and suggests two equations to determine the ratio of diffuse radiation to total radiation received on a horizontal surface. The results of these correlation equations are compared with other accepted equations.With 3 Figures     

Assessing the performance of global solar radiation empirical formulations in Kampala, Uganda

Summary Solar radiation incident on the Earth’s surface is a determining factor of climate on Earth, hence having a proper solar radiation database is crucial in understanding climate processes in the Earth’s atmosphere. Solar radiation data may be used in the development of insolation maps, analysis of crop growth and in the simulation of solar systems. Unfortunately, measured solar radiation data may not be available in locations where it is most needed. An alternative to obtaining observed data is to estimate it using an appropriate solar radiation model. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of thirteen global solar radiation empirical formulations, in Kampala, Uganda, located in an African Equatorial region. The best performing formulations were determined using the ranking method. The mean bias error, root mean square error and t-statistic value were calculated and utilized in the ranking process. Results have shown that the formulation: is ranked the highest and therefore is the recommended empirical equation for the estimation of the monthly mean global solar irradiation in Kampala, Uganda and in other African Equatorial locations with similar climate and terrain.     

福州城市空气污染对太阳辐射的影响

本文通过1962—1985年大气辐射过程、大气透明度和大气混浊度的变化,间接推断福州大气质量的长期演变及空气污染的季节变化。结果表明,直接辐射量减少,大气透明度的降低和大气混浊度的提高,都反映了城市空气污染的逐步发展,归因于空气中颗粒物的增加。本文所讨论的大气污染物混浊因子T_R,可以较客观地反映福州空气污染的年变化。     

The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation over Egypt

Summary The relation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days.With 6 Figures     

Evaluation of support vector machine for estimation of solar radiation from measured meteorological variables

Solar radiation is an essential and important variable to many models. However, it is measured at a very limited number of meteorological stations in the world. Developing method for accurate estimation of solar radiation from measured meteorological variables has been a focus and challenging task. This paper presents the method of solar radiation estimation using support vector machine (SVM). The main objective of this work is to examine the feasibility of SVM and explore its potential in solar radiation estimation. A total of 20 SVM models using different combinations of sunshine ratio, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric water vapor pressure as input attributes are explored using meteorological data at 15 stations in China. These models significantly outperform the empirical models with an average 14 % higher accuracy. When sunshine duration data are available, model SVM2 using sunshine ratio and air temperature range is proposed. It significantly outperforms the empirical models with an average 26 % higher accuracy. When sunshine duration data are not available, model SVM19 using maximum temperature, minimum temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure is proposed. It significantly outperforms the temperature-based empirical models with an average of 18 % higher accuracy. The remarkable improvement indicates that the SVM method would be a promising alternative over traditional approaches for estimation of solar radiation at any locations.     

起伏地形下河南省太阳散射辐射的分布式模拟

利用河南省及周边145个气象站1961－2000年常规气象观测资料和河南省1:25万DEM数据,充分考虑起伏地形下太阳散射辐射的天空因素与地面因素后,基于分布式开阔度模型和天文辐射模型,实现了起伏地形下河南省太阳散射辐射的分布式模拟.计算了100m×100 m分辨率下河南省1－12月气候平均太阳散射辐射及多年平均年散射辐射总量的空间分布.结果表明:在充分考虑经验系数的时空分布特征后,模拟精度有了进一步提高.与郑州站的观测资料对比验证表明,模拟精度较高,年平均绝对误差为3.06 MJ·m-2,年平均相对误差为1.67％;局地地形对太阳散射辐射的影响比较明显;通过个例年验证对模型性能和模拟结果进行考察,年平均相对误差不足11％.综上表明模型的时空模拟性能良好.     

Multischeme ensemble forecasting of surface temperature using neural network over Turkey

The ensemble method has long been used to reduce the errors that are caused by initial conditions and/or parameterizations of models in forecasting problems. In this study, neural network (NN) simulations are applied to ensemble weather forecasting. Temperature forecasts averaged over 2 weeks from four different forecasts are used to develop the NN model. Additionally, an ensemble mean of bias-corrected data is used as the control experiment. Overall, ensemble forecasts weighted by NN with feed forward backpropagation algorithm gave better root mean square error, mean absolute error, and same sign percent skills compared to those of the control experiment in most stations and produced more accurate weather forecasts.     

1960年以来长江流域太阳总辐射的时空变化

基于长江流域147个站点的气象数据,利用气候学计算方法估算1960年以来的太阳总辐射数据,运用线性回归和相关分析等方法,探讨1960年以来太阳总辐射在长江流域的时空变化特征,并分析太阳总辐射的影响因子.结果表明:太阳总辐射在整个长江流域(除去上游源头区金沙江流域)自东向西递减,且上游地区变化波动大,中下游地区下降趋势显著;自1960年以来太阳总辐射在长江流域呈现下降趋势,1990年以后开始呈现上升趋势;近50a来太阳总辐射的减少趋势与云量和大气水汽含量没有显著相关性.