Climatic changes in zoobenthos of the Sea of Azov under anthropogenic impact

The relationship between many-year variations in zoobentbos of the Sea of Azov and the largescale variations in atmospheric circulation (G.Ya. Vangengeim typification) from the mid-XX to the early XXI century has been considered. It has been shown that the western form facilitates an increase in zoobentbos biomass of the Sea of Azov and the eastern form, its growth. The effect of the northern type of macroprocesses is controversial. The change from eastern to western form in the mid-1980s caused a freshening in the Sea of Azov and reduced the total zoobentbos biomass, especially mollusk. The farther predominance of the western form will facilitate the preservation of the present-day structure of benthic communities up to the end of the first quarter of the XXI century.     

Hydrological processes in the Amur Liman

Data collected in 2005–2009 are analyzed to study the main features of hydrological processes in the main part of the Amur estuary—the Amur Liman. Data on the morphological structure of the liman and the surge and tidal phenomena are analyzed. The variability of salinity field in different phases of river hydrological cycle is studied. Wind currents are shown to have an appreciable effect on the water exchange and river runoff distribution between the seas of Japan and Okhotsk in the ice-free season. In summer, the Amur runoff enters the Sea of Okhotsk. The main features of the structure of liman water in summer are identified. The northern part of the estuary is freshened by river runoff and partially mixed; it has a two-layer structure. A salt wedge forms at the northern exit from the liman into the Sea of Okhotsk, and strong water stratification is observed there.     

Nutrient Loading of the Don and Kuban on the Ecosystem of the Sea of Azov

Hydrochemical data collected in field studies in the near-mouth area and delta of the Don R. (Aksay T.—the mouths of Don delta branches) in 2006–2015 are analyzed. The seasonal dynamics is demonstrated, and the average annual concentrations were evaluated for mineral, total dissolved, and total forms of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica; dissolved and particulate organic carbon; and total suspended solids in river water. The export of dissolved and particulate organic carbon and nutrients by the Don River into the Sea of Azov in the low-water period of 2007–2015 is evaluated. Retrospective analysis of nutrient export into the Sea of Azov with river runoff in the XX–early XXI century is given.     

Changes in the Lena River runoff during the Holocene

The spatial and temporal changes in the Lena River runoff over the last 9 thousand years are reconstructed through studying the freshwater microfossils in sediment cores obtained from the Laptev Sea inner shelf immediately adjacent to the Lena delta and subject to the freshening effect of river water inflowing the sea through the main arms of the delta (the Trofimovskaya, Bykovskaya, and Tumatskaya arms), the sediments having been thoroughly AMS ¹⁴C dated. The freshwater species of diatoms (predominantly the river ones) and green algae that enter the shelf with river water served as indicators of river runoff. The reconstruction of paleosalinity of the sea surface water in the regions under study is based on the relationships (established earlier) between the distribution of freshwater diatoms in the surface layers of sediments in the Arctic seas and the gradients of water salinity in summer. Data on variations in the composition of aquatic microfossil associations in sediments and the reconstructed paleosalinity in the regions of the eastern and western paleovalleys of the Lena River are used to determine the main paleohydrologic events that controlled the variations in the Lena runoff into the shelf zone of the Laptev Sea during the Holocene.     

Present-Day Estimates of the Hydrological Conditions for the Formation of Biological Production in the Sea of Azov

The main feature of the present-day hydrological conditions governing the formation of biological production in the Sea of Azov is shown to be the appreciable freshening of seawater, which is due, first of all, to climate changes. It is established that the freshening of seawater can benefit most for the reproduction of fish resources in the Sea of Azov only if the river runoff withdrawals are reduced step by step down to 5 km³/year (14% of the norm), the annual runoff is maintained at 35–36 km³, and the spring runoff is restored to 18.5 km³.     

Variations in the Black Sea water salinity from its latest salinization to the present state: Estimation based on mathematical modeling

The available published data were used to reveal the principal conditions and factors that control the formation and evolution of the Black Sea water salinity. Formalization of the major processes that contribute to the formation of sea salinity structure enabled, based on the present-day data on water balance, the reproduction of profiles of water salinity and the coefficient of vertical water exchange K _Z after 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 ka since the beginning of water exchange with the Sea of Marmara through the Bosphorus. The time during which the present-day profile of the Black Sea water salinity had formed was evaluated. The results of simulation for different formation stages of the Black Sea salinity structure were used to determine the major ways of salt input into the sea (with river runoff and waters of the Lower Bosphorus Current) and its removal from the sea (the Upper Bosphorus Current). It was established that the Black Sea water salinity regime has virtually attained a stationary state.Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2005, pp. 154–164.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Leonov.     

Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins

Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich     

Behavior of Strontium,Fluorine, and Boron in the Kuban and Don Mouth Areas

The distributions of concentrations of dissolved Sr, Ca, F, and B in the Kuban and Don mouth areas are studied. It is found that the behavior of F and B is conservative, whereas that of Sr and Ca is slightly nonconservative and is associated with the spatial heterogeneity of the structure of the zone where the river and sea waters are mixing (this heteromogeneity can arise because of dissimilar transformation of continental river runoff in different areas of the near-mouth coastal waters). It is shown that the parameters of linear relationships between the concentrations of Sr and Ca and the chlorides content of water differ in accordance with the seasonal variations in the chemical composition of the river and the Sea of Azov waters; for F and B, such regularity is not found.     

Long-term sea-level variations in the central Great Barrier Reef

Low frequency sea-level variations and associated geostrophic currents in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region near Townsville are studied using optimally-lagged multivariate regression. The analyses show that pressure-adjusted coastal sea levels and mid-shelf geostrophic currents are influenced predominantly by local along-shelf wind stress at the weather time-scale, and by climatic variables, such as atmospheric pressure and temperature, at seasonal and inter-annual time-scales. These forcing variables can specify sea levels over annual and inter-annual time-scales with a forecasting skill of 0.53 and 0.22, respectively (where 1.0 is perfect skill). Associated along-shelf geostrophic currents can be forecast with a skill of 0.57 over an annual time scale. If, instead, absolute coastal sea levels or offshore sea-level differences are used to specify the along-shelf geostrophic current, the forecasting skill is 0.75. A characteristic El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response is detected for time periods up to 25 years in monthly sea-level both at Townsville and at western Pacific island sea-level stations. This spatially coherent response varies in intensity and phase within the Coral Sea. Sea-level differences show a pattern which characterizes known features of the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea. These very low frequency sea-level variations in the Coral Sea must be taken into account to obtain accurate predictions of along-shelf geostrophic current variations on seasonal and inter-annual time scales. Regression analysis and a diagnostic river plume model show that the influence of the major rivers can produce sea-level changes due to buoyancy of order 5 cm. The corresponding errors in geostrophic velocities estimated using pressure-adjusted Townsville sea-level data alone are of order 5 cm s⁻¹ rms.     

Storm-related sea level variations along the North Sea coast as simulated by a high-resolution model 1958–2002

Storm-related sea level variations 1958–2002 along the North Sea coast from a high-resolution numerical hindcast are investigated and compared to the results of earlier studies. Considerable variations were found from year to year and over the entire period. The large-scale pattern of these variations is consistent with that derived from previous studies, while the magnitudes of the long-term trends differ. The latter is attributed to different analysis periods, improvements in the atmospheric forcing, and the enhanced spatial resolution of the numerical simulation. It is shown that the different analysis periods, in particular, represent an issue as the increase in storm-related sea levels was found to be weaker over the last few years that have not been included in earlier studies. These changes are consistent with observed changes of the storm climate over the North Sea. It is also shown that observed and hindcast trends may differ significantly. While the latter are in agreement with observed changes in the storm climate, it may be concluded that observed sea level changes along the North Sea coast comprise a considerable fraction that cannot be attributed to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Mathematical Modeling of Organogenic Material Biotransformation Processes for Studying the Conditions of Water Eutrophication in the Caspian Sea Surface Layer

A mathematical model based on average long-term data on water temperature, illumination, transparency, and nutrient content is used to calculate annual variations in the concentrations of organic and inorganic fractions of nutrients (C, N, Si, and P) in ten water areas in the Caspian Sea. The eutrophication of sea environment is examined with special emphasis on the increase in the biomass of aquatic animals (in particular, phyto- and zooplankton), the rate and duration of periods of plankton blooming, and changes in the conditions of nutrient limiting of primary production processes in different parts of the sea. Relationships between the inorganic components of N and P in river runoff and sea water areas are established. The obtained N_min/DIP ratios show P primary production to be limited in the zone of influence of the Volga runoff, P and N primary production to be limited in other northern parts of the sea, and N primary production to be mainly limited in the middle and southern parts of the sea.     

Water Level Fluctuations in the Kuban River Delta over the Period of Many Years

Three areas with different trends in water level variations over the period of many years have been distinguished within the Kuban Delta. It was found that the eustatic level rise of the Sea of Azov and soil subsidence on the sea edge of the delta and in the lower reaches of the Protoka Branch were responsible for the noticeable rise in water levels. A considerable water level drop caused by the river runoff regulation and erosion of the lower pool of the Krasnodarskii Waterworks was recorded in the upper part of the delta; in the rest part of the delta, water levels dropped insignificantly, which was partially due to the impact of the tectonic uplift.     

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004, with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.42 and -0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.     

Regularities in the diurnal variations of hydrochemical characteristics in the coastal zone of a sea

Amur Bay (Sea of Japan) is used as an example to show that the range of diurnal variations of hydrochemical characteristics in the coastal zone of a sea subject to the effect of continental runoff features some regularities. Specifically, variations of water salinity in the surface frontal zone of estuaries exponentially increase toward the river and reach the largest magnitude in the zone of high longitudinal gradients, where diurnal salinity distributions are found to deviate from the normal law.     

Long-Term Water Level Variations in the Eastern Sea of Azov and in the Mouth Reach of the Don River

Studies of long-term water level variations at marine hydrometeorological stations in the eastern Sea of Azov established a rise in the sea level which accelerated in the past 40 years. Allowance for the tectonic component permitted assessing the average rate of eustatic rise in the level. Oppositely directed long-term level variations were established in the mouth area of the Don River. Water level was found to rise at the downstream gages because of the backwater effect caused by the Sea of Azov level rise and delta deposits subsidence and to drop at the upstream gages mainly because of bed erosion owing to a reduction in sediment runoff after the construction of the Tsimlyanskoe Reservoir.     

Nannoplankton successions in the northern Red Sea during the last glaciation (60 to 14.5 ka BP): Reactions to climate change

Due to its restricted connection with the Indian Ocean, the desert-enclosed Red Sea is extremely sensitive to global sea level changes and thus ideally suited for paleoceanographic studies of what occurred during the last glaciation. The understanding of its glacial history is, however, still limited. A serious obstacle to obtain satisfactory paleoecological information has been the rarity of microfossil proxy species caused by high salinities. Here, we present a continuous and well-dated calcareous nannoplankton record from the northern Red Sea, covering the interval from 60–14.5 ka BP. Our investigation shows that the composition of the calcareous nannoplankton community varied between  32 ka BP and 14.5 ka BP in response to rapid environmental changes which are closely correlated to climatic fluctuations described from the North Atlantic region. Heinrich events H3, H2 and H1 are dominated by Emiliania huxleyi. Gephyrocapsa oceanica and especially Gephyrocapsa ericsonii are abundant between H3–H2 and H2–H1. A less pronounced response of the calcareous nannoplankton to the high latitudinal climatic oscillations is documented prior to  32 ka BP, suggesting that a strong atmospheric coupling between the northern Red Sea and the North Atlantic realm was established in the late Marine Isotope Stage 3. In contrast to the previously held view of a sea level related salinity increase as the major cause for changes of the plankton communities within the glacial Red Sea, we interpret the documented variations as being caused by local hydrographic changes under the atmospheric control from the extratropics. Temperature changes and especially variations of the water stratification appear to be critical selective factors for the calcareous nannoplankton composition.     

Nonlinear dynamics of level variations in the Caspian Sea

Caspian Sea level variations, which have several equilibrium states, are studied by the methods of the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. Normal monthly values of sea level according to data collected at Makhachkala gauge from 1900 to 2000 are considered. The diagnostic characteristics of dynamic chaos are used to show that sea level variations have some properties of series with chaotic behavior. A model of level variations in the Caspian Sea, comprising a system of water balance equations for the sea basin, the dynamics of river runoff, and water balance of the sea itself, is proposed. Equation of a nonlinear oscillator is derived and shown to have solutions with chaotic regimes at some combinations of parameters.     

Sediment balance at river mouths and the formation of deltas at rising or falling sea level

Sediment balance at river mouths—a physical basis of delta dynamics—is considered. The specific features of relationships between sediment balance components at a mouth of a river are established for a stable, rising, or dropping sea level. The development of the delta of the Chilia branch at the Danube mouth is considered as an example of delta dynamics under the conditions of a relatively stable sea level. The evolution of the Sulak delta in the Caspian Sea with a highly variable level is considered as an example of delta dynamics in the case of a considerable rise and drop of water level in the water body. The anthropogenic reduction of sediment runoff of the rivers (by a factor of two in the Danube, and by a factor of nine in the Sulak) is taken into account. The relationship between the sediment runoff of a river and the volume of the “backwater prism” that formed due to sea level rise is shown to be the key factor in the development of delta in the case of sea level rise. In the case of a drop in the sea level, the relationship between the “active” and “passive” progradation of the delta into the sea is determined by the sediment runoff of the river, the rate of sea level drop, and the bed slope in the coastal area of the nearshore zone.     

The sources of the upper and lower halocline water in the Canada Basin derived from isotopic tracers

The Arctic Ocean is almost entirely surrounded by land, with shallow openings to the Pacific through Bering Strait (~ 45 m deep) and to the Atlantic through the Barents Sea (~50—450 m deep) and Fram Strait where the sill depth is around 2500 m. The bathy…     

Analysis of Long-Term Variations in the Volga Annual Runoff

The stability of sample estimates of statistical parameters was analyzed for segments of the initial time series of annual runoff volumes of the Volga River at Volgograd for 1881/1882–1994/1995. The segments of series considered in this study differ in the extent of anthropogenic impact on the runoff and the type of atmospheric circulation and correspond to characteristic periods in the Caspian Sea level variations. The conclusion is made that there are statistically significant variations in the annual runoff of the Volga, caused by both natural–climatic and anthropogenic variations in the hydrological cycle.