Quiet Sun Contribution to Variations in the Total Solar Irradiance

An analysis of spatially-resolved measurements of the intensity of the photospheric continuum by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the SOHO spacecraft indicates that these data can be used to study variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Since the techniques employed depend upon ratios of intensities measured by MDI, they are independent of the absolute photometric calibration of the instrument. The results suggest that, while it is possible to account for short-term (weeks to months) variation in TSI by variations in the irradiance contributions of regions with enhanced magnetic fields (larger than ten G as measured by MDI), the longer-term variations are influenced significantly by variations in the brightness of the quiet Sun, defined here as regions with magnetic field magnitudes smaller than ten G. The latter regions cover a substantial fraction of the solar surface, ranging from approximately 90% of the Sun near solar minimum to 70% near solar maximum. The results provide evidence that a substantial fraction, 50% or more, of the longer term (≥one year) variation in TSI is due to changes in the brightness of the quiet Sun.     

Modeling Total Solar Irradiance Variations Using Automated Classification Software on Mount Wilson Data

We present the results using the AutoClass analysis application available at NASA/Ames Intelligent Systems Div. (2002) which is a Bayesian, finite mixture model classification system developed by Cheeseman and Stutz (1996). We apply this system to Mount Wilson Solar Observatory (MWO) intensity and magnetogram images and classify individual pixels on the solar surface to calculate daily indices that are then correlated with total solar irradiance (TSI) to yield a set of regression coefficients. This approach allows us to model the TSI with a correlation of better than 0.96 for the period 1996 to 2007. These regression coefficients applied to classified pixels on the observed solar surface allow the construction of images of the Sun as it would be seen by TSI measuring instruments like the Solar Bolometric Imager recently flown by Foukal et al. (Astrophys. J. 611, L57, 2004). As a consequence of the very high correlation we achieve in reproducing the TSI record, our approach holds out the possibility of creating an on-going, accurate, independent estimate of TSI variations from ground-based observations which could be used to compare, and identify the sources of disagreement among, TSI observations from the various satellite instruments and to fill in gaps in the satellite record. Further, our spatially-resolved images should assist in characterizing the particular solar surface regions associated with TSI variations. Also, since the particular set of MWO data on which this analysis is based is available on a daily basis back to at least 1985, and on an intermittent basis before then, it will be possible to estimate the TSI emission due to identified solar surface features at several solar minima to constrain the role surface magnetic effects have on long-term trends in solar energy output.     

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past.This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability.The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo.We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.     

Periodicity of Total Solar Irradiance

We investigate the periodicity in the PMOD composite of the daily total solar irradiance (TSI) from 21 September 1978 to 9 June 2009. Besides the Schwabe cycle period (10.32 years), the quasi-rotation period is found to be statistically significant in TSI, whose value is about 32 days, longer than that in sunspot activity (27 days), and it intermittently appears around the sunspot maximum times. The quasi-rotation period in TSI is inferred to be mainly caused by sunspot activity, but to be modulated by bright features as well. It was previously found that variations of TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle mainly come from the combination of the sunspots’ blocking and the intensification due to bright faculae, plages, and network elements, with a slight dominance of the bright-feature effect during the maximum of the Schwabe cycle. For the sunspot-blocking and the bright-feature effect to contribute to TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle, the former is inferred to lead the latter by 29 days at least.     

A New Look at Solar Irradiance Variation

We compare total solar irradiance (TSI) and ultraviolet (F _uv) irradiance variation reconstructed using Ca?K facular areas since 1915, with previous values based on less direct proxies. Our annual means for 1925??C?1945 reach values 30??C?50?% higher than those presently used in IPCC climate studies. A high facula/sunspot area ratio in spot cycles 16 and 17 seems to be responsible. New evidence from solar photometry increases the likelihood of greater seventeenth century solar dimming than expected from the disappearance of magnetic active regions alone. But the large additional brightening in the early twentieth century claimed from some recent models requires complete disappearance of the magnetic network. The network is clearly visible in Ca K spectroheliograms obtained since the 1890s, so these models cannot be correct. Changes in photospheric effective temperature invoked in other models would be powerfully damped by the thermal inertia of the convection zone. Thus, there is presently no support for twentieth century irradiance variation besides that arising from active regions. The mid-twentieth century irradiance peak arising from these active regions extends 20 years beyond the early 1940s peak in global temperature. This failure of correlation, together with the low amplitude of TSI variation and the relatively weak effect of Fuv driving on tropospheric temperature, limits the role of solar irradiance variation in twentieth century global warming.     

Total Solar Irradiance Measurement and Modelling during Cycle 23

During solar cycle 23, which is now close to its end, variations of the total solar irradiance were measured by six different instruments, providing four independent time series of the irradiance variation over the complete solar cycle. A new composite time series constructed using five of these six instruments provides unprecedented instrument stability for the study of the open question of solar irradiance variations between minima. An independent analysis of the different composite time series is performed through an empirical proxy model fit. The new composite is fitted with 0.96 correlation (R ²=93%) and RMS error of 0.15 W m⁻², thus reaching the limit of the individual instrument stabilities. Both the measurements and the model indicate that for the current cycle the minimum irradiance level has not yet been reached. Therefore we use the model to extrapolate measurements up to 2008 when the minimum irradiance level is expected. If we assume that there will be no changes in the solar irradiance from 2006 to 2008 that are not captured by the regression model, it can be predicted that there will be no variation of the solar minimum irradiance level during cycle 23 with an uncertainty of ±0.14 W m⁻².     

太阳辐照的观测研究进展

太阳总辐照是指在地球大气层顶接收到的太阳总辐射照度,也叫"太阳常数",但它实际上并非常数。太阳总辐照随波长的分布即为太阳分光辐照。太阳辐照变化的研究,对理解太阳表面及内部活动的物理过程、机制,研究地球大气、日地关系,解决人类面临的全球气候变暖的挑战等,都具有重要意义。首先简单介绍了太阳辐照,回顾了太阳辐照的空间观测;接着介绍了观测数据的并合,以及对合成数据的一些研究;然后讨论了太阳辐照变化的原因,简述了太阳总辐照的重构及其在气候研究上的一些应用,并进行必要的评论;最后对未来的研究方向提出了一些看法。     

The Solar Dynamo and Its Phase Transitions during the Last Millennium

Variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) correlate well with changes in projected area of photospheric magnetic flux tubes associated with dark sunspots and bright faculae in active regions and network. This correlation does not, however, rule out possible TSI contributions from photospheric brightness inhomogeneities located outside flux tubes and spatially correlated with them. Previous reconstructions of TSI report agreement with radiometry that seems to rule out significant “extra-flux-tube” contributions. We show that these reconstructions are more sensitive to the facular contrasts used than has been generally recognized. Measurements with the Solar Bolometric Imager (SBI) provide the first reliable support for the relatively high, wide-band, disk-center contrasts required to produce 10% rms agreement. Longer term bolometric imaging will be required to determine whether the small but systematic TSI residuals we see here are caused by remaining errors in spot and facular areas and contrasts or by extra-flux-tube brightness structures such as bright rings around sunspots or “convective stirring” around active regions.     

Modulations of the surface magnetic field on the intra-cycle variability of total solar irradiance

Solar photospheric magnetic field plays a dominant role in the variability of total solar irradiance (TSI). The modulation of magnetic flux at six specific ranges on TSI is characterized for the first time. The daily flux values of magnetic field at four ranges are extracted from MDI/SOHO, together with daily flux of active regions (MF\(_{\text{ar}}\)) and quiet regions (MF\(_{\text{qr}}\)); the first four ranges (MF\(_{1\mbox{--}4}\)) are: 1.5–2.9, 2.9–32.0, 32.0–42.7, and 42.7–380.1 (\(\times 10^{18}\) Mx per element), respectively. Cross-correlograms show that MF₄, MF\(_{\text{qr}}\), and MF\(_{ \text{ar}}\) are positively correlated with TSI, while MF₂ is negatively correlated with TSI; the correlations between MF₁, MF₃ and TSI are insignificant. The bootstrapping tests confirm that the impact of MF₄ on TSI is more significant than that of MF\(_{\text{ar}}\) and MF\(_{\text{qr}}\), and MF\(_{\text{ar}}\) leads TSI by one rotational period. By extracting the rotational variations in the MFs and TSI, the modulations of the former on the latter at the solar rotational timescale are clearly illustrated and compared during solar maximum and minimum times, respectively. Comparison of the relative amplitudes of the long-term variation show that TSI is in good agreement with the variation of MF₄ and MF\(_{\text{ar}}\); besides, MF₂ is in antiphase with TSI, and it lags the latter by about 1.5 years.     

Total Solar Irradiance Variation During Rapid Sunspot Growth

Large sunspot areas correspond to dips in the total solar irradiance (TSI), a phenomenon associated with the local suppression of convective energy transport in the spot region. This results in a strong correlation between sunspot area and TSI. During the growth phase of a sunspot other physics may affect this correlation; if the physical growth of the sunspot resulted in surface flows affecting the temperature, for example, we might expect to see an anomalous variation in TSI. In this paper we study NOAA active region 8179, in which large sunspots suddenly appeared near disk center, at a time (March 1998) when few competing sunspots or plage regions were present on the visible hemisphere. We find that the area/TSI correlation does not significantly differ from the expected pattern of correlation, a result consistent with a large thermal conductivity in solar convection zone. In addition we have searched for a smaller-scale effect by analyzing white-light images from MDI (the Michelson Doppler Imager) on SOHO. A representative upper-limit energy consistent with the images is on the order of 3×10³¹ ergs, assuming the time scale of the actual spot area growth. This is of the same order of magnitude as the buoyant energy of the spot emergence even if it is shallow. We suggest that detailed image analyses of sunspot growth may therefore show `transient bright rings' at a detectable level.     

The Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM): Early Observations

This paper presents and interprets observations obtained by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) over a time period of several solar rotations during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The time series of visible and infrared (IR) bands clearly show significant wavelength dependence of these variations. At some wavelengths the SIM measurements are qualitatively similar to the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, but in the visible and IR they show character similar to the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variations. Despite this overall similarity, different amplitudes, phases, and temporal features are observed at various wavelengths. The TSI can be explained as a complex sum of the various wavelength components. The SIM observations are interpreted with the aid of solar images that exhibit a mixture of solar activity features. Qualitative analysis shows how the sunspots, faculae, plage, and active network provide distinct contributions to the spectral irradiance at different wavelengths, and ultimately, how these features combine to produce the observed TSI variations. Most of the observed variability appears to be qualitatively explained by solar surface features related directly to the magnetic activity.     

ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models

The satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) database provides a valuable record for investigating models of solar variation used to interpret climate changes. The 35-year ACRIM total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite composite time series has been revised using algorithm updates based on 13 years of accumulated mission experience and corrections to ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 results for scattering and diffraction derived from recent testing at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total solar irradiance Radiometer Facility (LASP/TRF). The net correction lowers the ACRIM3 scale by ～3000 ppm, in closer agreement with the scale of SORCE/TIM results (average total solar irradiance ≈1361.5 W/m²). Differences between the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are investigated, particularly the decadal trending during solar cycles 21–22 and the Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE results available to bridge the ACRIM Gap (1989–1992), are tested against a set of solar proxy models. Our findings confirm the following ACRIM TSI composite features: (1) The validity of the TSI peak in the originally published ERB results in early 1979 during solar cycle 21; (2) The correctness of originally published ACRIM1 results during the SMM spin mode (1981–1984); (3) The upward trend of originally published ERB results during the ACRIM Gap; (4) The occurrence of a significant upward TSI trend between the minima of solar cycles 21 and 22 and (5) a decreasing trend during solar cycles 22–23. The same analytical approach does not support some important features of the PMOD TSI composite: (1) The downward corrections applied to the originally published ERB and ACRIM1 results during solar cycle 21; (2) The step function sensitivity change in ERB results at the end-of-September 1989; (3) The downward trend of ERBE results during the ACRIM Gap and (4) the use of ERBE results to bridge the ACRIM Gap. Our analysis provides a first order validation of the ACRIM TSI composite approach and its 0.037 %/decade upward trend during solar cycles 21–22. The implications of increasing TSI during the global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century are that solar forcing of climate change may be a significantly larger factor than represented in the CMIP5 general circulation climate models.     

A Cross-Comparison of Cotemporal Magnetograms Obtained with MDI/SOHO and SP/<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hinode</Emphasis>

We compared a set of cotemporal magnetograms of active regions obtained with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) aboard SOHO and the Spectro-Polarimeter (SP) of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board Hinode. The comparison shows that even with the recent calibration of level-1.8 data, the magnetic flux density derived from the MDI data is still lower than that obtained with SP. The average ratio between current version 2008 MDI level-1.8 data and SP magnetograms is 0.71, and is 0.82 for version 2007 MDI level-1.8 data. The comparison also shows that the most recent version 2008 calibration of MDI level-1.8 data has successfully removed the center-to-limb variation, while version 2007 level-1.8 data did not, as estimated by Ulrich et al. (Solar Phys. 255, 53, 2009).     

A Computationally Efficient,Time-Dependent Model of the Solar Wind for Use as a Surrogate to Three-Dimensional Numerical Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Solar radiation variability spans a wide range in time, ranging from seconds to decadal and longer. The nearly 40 years of measurements of solar irradiance from space established that the total solar irradiance varies by \(\approx 0.1\%\) in phase with the Sun’s magnetic cycle. Specific intervals of the solar spectrum, e.g., ultraviolet (UV), vary by orders of magnitude more. These variations can affect the Earth’s climate in a complex non-linear way. Specifically, some of the processes of interaction between solar UV radiation and the Earth’s atmosphere involve threshold processes and do not require a detailed reconstruction of the solar spectrum. For this reason a spectral UV index based on the (FUV-MUV) color has been recently introduced. This color is calculated using SORCE SOLSTICE integrated fluxes in the FUV and MUV bands. We present in this work the reconstructions of the solar (FUV-MUV) color and Ca ii K and Mg ii indices, from 1749–2015, using a semi-empirical approach based on the reconstruction of the area coverage of different solar magnetic features, i.e., sunspot, faculae and network. We remark that our results are in noteworthy agreement with latest solar UV proxy reconstructions that exploit more sophisticated techniques requiring historical full-disk observations. This makes us confident that our technique can represent an alternative approach which can complement classical solar reconstruction efforts. Moreover, this technique, based on broad-band observations, can be utilized to estimate the activity on Sun-like stars, that cannot be resolved spatially, hosting extra-solar planetary systems.

     

Temporal Variations in Solar Irradiance Since 1947

The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. A data-driven approach is used in this article to analyze and model the temporal variation of the TSI and Mg?ii index back to 1947. In both cases, observed data in the time interval of the satellite era, 1978?–?2013, were used for neural network (NN) model-design and testing. For this particular purpose, the evolution of the solar magnetic field is assumed to be the main driver for the day-to-day irradiance variability. First, we design a model for the Mg?ii index data from F10.7 cm solar radio-flux using the NN approach in the time span of 1978 through 2013. Results of Mg?ii index model were tested using various numbers of hidden nodes. The predicted values of the hidden layer with five nodes correspond well to the composite Mg?ii values. The model reproduces 94% of the variability in the composite Mg?ii index, including the secular decline between the 1996 and 2008 solar cycle minima. Finally, the extrapolation of the Mg?ii index was performed using the developed model from F10.7 cm back to 1947. Similarly, the NN model was designed for TSI variability study over the time span of the satellite era using data from the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) as a target, and solar activity indices as model inputs. This model was able to reproduce the daily irradiance variations with a correlation coefficient of 0.937 from sunspot and facular measurements in the time span of 1978?–?2013. Finally, the temporal variation of the TSI was analyzed using the designed NN model back to 1947 from the Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) and the extrapolated Mg?ii index. The extrapolated TSI result indicates that the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 19 and 21 are closely comparable to each other, and Solar Cycle 20 appears to be of lower irradiance during its maximum.     

Photospheric limb-darkening signatures of global structure variations

Observations of short-term irradiance variations and consideration of mechanisms of the solar activity cycle suggest the possibility of long-term variation of the solar flux. Since the limb darkening is sensitive to effective temperature and convective efficiency, observations of the solar limb darkening may provide a useful means to detect and study long-term global variations. The limb-darkening responses to impulsive variation (in depth) of the source function, to effective temperature variation, and to convection variations are presented. For the variations considered, the limb-darkening variation is approximately linearly proportional to the associated parameters. The minimum detectable amplitude of those parametric variations is derived as a function of observational noise. Given our demonstrated errors of observation, single-parameter sensitivies are 3 K for effective temperature variation and 0.007 for local mixing-length variation for year to year changes at 99% confidence.     

A Sunspot Catalog for the Period 1952 – 1986 from Observations Made at the Madrid Astronomical Observatory

The Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) performs daily measurements of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) from 200 to 2400 nm. Both temporal and spectral corrections for instrument degradation have been built on physical models based on comparison of two independent channels with different solar exposure. The present study derives a novel correction for SIM degradation using the total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements from the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) on SORCE. The correction is applied to SIM SSI data from September 2004 to October 2012 over the wavelength range from 205 nm to 2300 nm. The change in corrected, integrated SSI agrees within \(0.1~\mbox{W}\,\mbox{m}^{-2}\) (\(1\sigma\)) with SORCE TIM TSI and independently shows agreement with the SATIRE-S and NRLSSI2 solar models within measurement uncertainties.

     

Lifetimes of High-Degree <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> Modes in the Quiet and Active Sun

We study variations of the lifetimes of high-ℓ solar p modes in the quiet and active Sun with the solar activity cycle. The lifetimes in the degree range ℓ=300 – 600 and ν=2.5 – 4.5 mHz were computed from SOHO/MDI data in an area including active regions and quiet Sun using the time – distance technique. We applied our analysis to the data in four different phases of solar activity: 1996 (at minimum), 1998 (rising phase), 2000 (at maximum), and 2003 (declining phase). The results from the area with active regions show that the lifetime decreases as activity increases. The maximal lifetime variations are between solar minimum in 1996 and maximum in 2000; the relative variation averaged over all ℓ values and frequencies is a decrease of about 13%. The lifetime reductions relative to 1996 are about 7% in 1998 and about 10% in 2003. The lifetime computed in the quiet region still decreases with solar activity, although the decrease is smaller. On average, relative to 1996, the lifetime decrease is about 4% in 1998, 10% in 2000, and 8% in 2003. Thus, measured lifetime increases when regions of high magnetic activity are avoided. Moreover, the lifetime computed in quiet regions also shows variations with the activity cycle.     

Solar X-Ray Spectral Irradiance Variability

Solar spectral irradiance at X-ray wavelengths show large variations over a period of solar cycle. We use X-ray irradiance data in three narrow spectral regimes deduced from Yohkoh SXT measurements to study coronal irradiance and their possible association with the activity in the lower atmosphere. Time variation of the X-ray irradiance is important in understanding the emergence of magnetic flux and the effects of such variation on the upper atmosphere of the Earth. We note that about 66% of the total (2 – 30 Å) X-ray irradiance arise from 10 to 20 Å spectral range, while 2 – 10 Å contribute only about 3% of the total. The time variation in 2 – 10 and 10 – 20 Å ranges follow each other closely. Further they follow closely the solar indices such as sunspot, F _10.7, and plage indices, although similarity in the variation of 10 – 20 Å is quite apparent. However, the variation in the other spectral band (20 – 30 Å) differ to a large extent except for the solar cycle dependent variation. We infer that in addition to the active regions, the remnants of active regions contribute considerably to the emission in this spectral range.     

Solar radiative output and its variability: evidence and mechanisms

Electromagnetic radiation from the Sun is Earths primary energy source. Space-based radiometric measurements in the past two decades have begun to establish the nature, magnitude and origins of its variability. An 11-year cycle with peak-to-peak amplitude of order 0.1 % is now well established in recent total solar irradiance observations, as are larger variations of order 0.2 % associated with the Suns 27-day rotation period. The ultraviolet, visible and infrared spectral regions all participate in these variations, with larger changes at shorter wavelengths. Linkages of solar radiative output variations with solar magnetism are clearly identified. Active regions alter the local radiance, and their wavelength-dependent contrasts relative to the quiet Sun control the relative spectrum of irradiance variability. Solar radiative output also responds to sub-surface convection and to eruptive events on the Sun. On the shortest time scales, total irradiance exhibits five minute fluctuations of amplitude %, and can increase to as much as 0.015 % during the very largest solar flares. Unknown is whether multi-decadal changes in solar activity produce longer-term irradiance variations larger than observed thus far in the contemporary epoch. Empirical associations with solar activity proxies suggest reduced total solar irradiance during the anomalously low activity in the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum relative to the present. Uncertainties in understanding the physical relationships between direct magnetic modulation of solar radiative output and heliospheric modulation of cosmogenic proxies preclude definitive historical irradiance estimates, as yet.Received: 26 August 2004, Published online: 16 November 2004 Correspondence to: Claus Fröhlich