春大豆鼓粒至成熟期水分胁迫对结实和产量的影响

揭示春大豆后期干旱对产量形成的影响规律,为开展夏秋干旱评估和抗旱灌溉提供科学依据。于2017年和2018年在吉林省中部开展大豆鼓粒—成熟期农田水分控制试验,设7个土壤水分处理和1个自然雨养处理,观测土壤湿度、结荚率、空秕荚率、百粒重及产量。采用回归方法分析土壤湿度对大豆产量性状的影响。结果表明：在田间持水量以下,大豆粒重和产量与鼓粒—成熟期间耕层土壤水分线性正相关,结荚数和空秕荚率与土壤水分呈二次函数关系。鼓粒—成熟期间0—30 cm土层土壤湿度每下降1个百分点,大豆结荚数和有效荚数分别下降3.1和3.7个百分点,相对百粒重和相对单产分别下降0.8和1.5个百分点,空秕荚率上升9.3个百分点。大豆鼓粒—成熟期比较喜水,但也有较强的耐旱能力,土壤湿度22%—23%之间大豆荚数多、空秕荚少、籽粒重、产量高。大豆鼓粒—成熟期轻旱、中旱、重旱和特旱的土壤相对湿度指标分别为66%—75%、57%—65%、50%—56%和50%以下,对应的减产率分别为5%—10%、11%—15%、16%—20%和20%以上。与以往指标比较,本试验重旱、特旱指标明显大于凋萎湿度,更符合大豆水分生理规律,可用于春大豆鼓粒—成熟期干旱影响定量评估。     

Reduced soil moisture contributes to more intense and more frequent heat waves in northern China

Heat waves have attracted increasing attention in recent years due to their frequent occurrence. The present study investigates the heat wave intensity and duration in China using daily maximum temperature from 753 weather stations from 1960 to 2010. In addition, its relationships with soil moisture local forcing on the ten-day period and monthly scales in spring and summer are analyzed using soil moisture data from weather stations and ERA40 reanalysis data. And finally, a mechanistic analysis is carried out using CAM5.1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1) coupled with CLM2 (Community Land Model, version 2). It is found that the heat wave frequency and duration show a sandwich distribution across China, with high occurrence rates in Southeast China and Northwest China, where the maximum frequency and duration exceeded 2.1 times and 9 days per year, respectively. The increasing trends in both duration and intensity occurred to the north of 35°N. The relationships between heat wave frequency in northern China in July (having peak distribution) and soil moisture in the earlier stage (from March to June) and corresponding period (July) are further analyzed, revealing a strong negative correlation in March, June and July, and thus showing that soil moisture in spring and early summer could be an important contributor to heat waves in July via positive subtropical high anomalies. However, the time scales of influence were relatively short in the semi-humid and humid regions, and longer in the arid region. The contribution in the corresponding period took place via positive subtropical high anomalies and positive surface skin temperature and sensible heat flux anomalies.     

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.     

编好气象短信提高服务质量

根据气象短信的特点、内容和形式,介绍如何对气象短信进行包装的一些方法和思路。     

按不同气候背景制作单站MOS预报方程

在基层业务体制的框架基本形成以后，县局在参考上级指导预报的同时，初步开展对单站数值预报模式的研究，注意中、小尺度天气的变化规律，以提高订正预报的精度。     

贝叶斯准则在农牧交错带农业种植决策中的应用

为揭示呼伦贝尔市农牧交错带农业种植结构的实质,利用贝叶斯准则及该区气象资料,主要作物大豆、玉米和小麦的种植面积及产量资料进行了分析。结果表明:①该区种植作物的经济效益大小排序为:大豆>玉米>小麦;②如果预报有干旱发生,则作物种植比例大小排序为:玉米>大豆>小麦;如果预报有洪涝或低温冷害发生,则作物种植比例大小排序为:大豆>玉米>小麦;③设计了两种在干旱气候年型下的作物种植比例最优方案,产值可分别增加3%和5%以上。     

多网卡负载平衡技术在服务器上的应用

佳木斯市气象局的服务器是一机多用，既是文件服务器、数据库服务器，又是代理服务器。服务器承载着全局的公文传输、报文传输、测报数据库共享、代理上网等，服务器本身性能较高，能满足工作需求，但是受到网络传输能力的限制，效率不高。采用多网卡负载平衡技术解决了这个问题。多网卡负载平衡是多块网卡使用同一IP地址，相当于将网络带宽扩大了几倍，加大了服务器的数据吞吐能力，提高了性能。同时也具备一定的容错能力，如果一块网卡或一条线路损坏，不影响服务器的正常运行，其它网卡和线路依然正常工作。     

Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making

Is the prospect of possible climate change relevant to water resources decisions being made today? And, if so, how ought that prospect be considered? These questions can be addressed by decision analysis, which we apply to two investments in the Great Lakes region: a regulatory structure for Lake Erie, and breakwaters to protect Presque Isle State Park, PA. These two decisions have the elements that potentially make climate change relevant: long lived, "one shot" investments; benefits or costs that are affected by climate-influenced variables; and irreversibilities. The decision analyses include the option of waiting to obtain better information, using Bayesian analysis to detect whether climate change has altered water supplies. The analyses find that beliefs about climate change can indeed affect optimal decisions. Furthermore, ignoring the possibility of climate change can lead to significant opportunity losses—in the cases here, as much as 10% or more of the construction cost. Yet the consequences of climate uncertainty for Great Lakes management do not appear to be qualitatively different from those of other risks, and thus do not deserve different treatment. The methods of sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, and decision analysis, all of which are encouraged under US federal guidelines for water planning, are applicable. We recommend increased use of decision trees and Bayesian analysis to consider not only climate change risks, but also other important social and environmental uncertainties.     

From seed to sequence: Dematerialization and the battle to (re)define genetic resources

In the past decade and a half, key international agreements have established systems of access and benefit sharing that aim to obtain consent and provide compensation for commercial use of plants, animals, and microorganisms—particularly those sourced in the Global South. Yet the rise of genomics, gene editing and synthetic biology may threaten the legitimacy of these agreements. Thus far, agreements have governed these resources in their physical form—as organisms in situ or germplasm in gene banks. However, both public and private research are increasingly utilizing genomic sequences and associated information. As a result of this shift, debates are unfolding at international fora such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture on whether existing agreements apply to physical resources only, or also to their sequence data or other associated information. Some call uninhibited access to digital sequence information (DSI) a new form of biopiracy, whereby digital resources are used without permission from those in the Global South. Others argue that access to DSI should remain unencumbered by bureaucracy, as it is key to biodiversity conservation and food security. This paper examines these debates over DSI and the rationales and justifications employed by the two sides, which loosely follow a divide between Global South and North. We find that different conceptualizations of genetic resources—particularly with regard to when, where and how value is added—define respective positions. Outcomes of these debates have important implications for management of global biodiversity, food security and issues of equity and justice for actors in biodiverse regions of the world.     

Low-level wind response to mesoscale pressure systems

Observations are presented which show a strong correlation between low-level wind behaviour (e.g., rotation near the surface) and the passage of mesoscale pressure systems. The latter are associated with frontal transition zones, are dominated by a pressure-jump line and a mesoscale high pressure area, and produce locally large horizontal pressure gradients. The wind observations are simulated by specifying a time sequence of perturbation pressure gradient and subsequently solving the vertically-integrated momentum equations with appropriate initial conditions. Very good agreement is found between observed and calculated winds; in particular, (i) a 360 ° rotation in wind on passage of the mesoscale high; (ii) wind-shift lines produced dynamically by the pressure-jump line; (iii) rapid linear increase in wind speed on passage of the pressure jump.     

Simulation of desert-scrub growth: A forcing to warmer and more pluvial climate

Desert-fringe vegetation growing over bright, sandy soils reduces the surface albedo from above 0.4 to well be-low 0.3. Called desert-scrub, these shrubs form a predominantly vertical clumps protruding from the soil-level, thereby significantly increasing the coefficient of turbulent heat transfer from the surface. The impact on global and desert-belt climate of changes in these two surface characteristics was simulated by a multi-layer energy balance model. Evaluated only as a forcing to a further climatic change (that is, without accounting for any possible feedbacks) the results are: if vegetation (such as apparently existed under the warmer climate of 6,000 BP) grows over large areas in the arid, currently bare-soil regions, the annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases by 0.7oC (by 0.6oC in July ), the surface temperature over land in the 20-30oN zone increases by 0.9oC in both the annual and the July means, and the land-ocean annual temperature contrast in this zone increases by 0.25oC (0.2oC in July). These results represent the combined influence of the reduction in the surface albedo and of the increase in the coefficient of turbulent heat transfer. In the desert-belt zones, the increase in the transfer coefficient sharply reduces the land temperature and the land-ocean temperature contrast from the values produced by the albedo change alone. This reduction must be attributed to the increased land-to-ocean circulation (which our model does not evaluate ex-plicitly). Considering that a stronger circulation (resulting from land-ocean temperature contrast) generally forces a higher rainfall, the vegetation which emerged in the arid regions during the post-glacial optimum should be consid-ered a. significant positive feedback towards a still warmer, and also a more pluvial, climate. Our study may have im-plications for the 21st century, if the global warming expected from the enhanced greenhouse effects is accompanied by increased precipitation over the continents.     

灌浆期升温和干旱胁迫对江苏冬小麦产量和干物质分配的影响

利用修订的WOFOST模型,结合全球气候变化的大背景以及江苏省冬小麦的实际情况,在冬小麦灌浆期进行了升温胁迫和干旱胁迫模拟,研究了江苏省冬小麦在气候变化背景下的农业气象灾害损失,并检验了WOFOST模型对复合胁迫的模拟能力.利用江苏省徐州、淮安和常州三个站点2008—2017年气象、土壤和冬小麦产量等资料,基于WOFOST作物模型,从地上部分的干物重和干物质分配两个角度探讨升温胁迫和干旱胁迫以及二者的复合胁迫对冬小麦产量形成的影响.结果表明,灌浆期升温和干旱复合胁迫严重影响冬小麦籽粒干物质积累和产量.升温(1℃、2℃、3℃)胁迫、干旱(轻度、中度、重度)胁迫以及二者复合胁迫均导致冬小麦减产率不同程度增大,籽粒干物质分配比例不同程度降低,复合胁迫的影响程度大于单一胁迫.升温对江苏南部冬小麦减产程度最大,籽粒干物质积累受阻最为严重;干旱对江苏中部冬小麦产量影响最为严重,籽粒干物质积累程度由南到北递减;复合胁迫下,减产率多表现为由南至北递增,而干物质积累程度递减.     

政务公开是实现事业发展的重要途径

政务公开工作推行之后,几次到洪洞县气象局调研、学习,目睹他们不断变化的优美环境,令人叹慕攀升的创收数字,现代化服务手段内容的拓展和扩充,井然有序的业务工作秩序和实实在在的工作质量……激发人去思考。他们的做法是否有一些规律性的东西对工作有所启示呢?责任心使然,不能不引起对洪洞气象工作的关注。洪洞县气象局占地约0.7hm2,生活、工作用房约600m2,在“九五”期间首批完成台站改造,属国家一般气候站。现有6名在职职工,在政府科级局中是最小的单位,且女同志占到66%,正、副局长均为女同志。在部门气象事业向社会气象事业转变中他们除…     

利用数字化技术优化传统电视天气预报制播系统

利用数字化技术对区县局广泛采用的佳视通YS-8000/9000电视天气预报制作系统进行改进与优化,实现了预播产品与电视台硬盘自动播放系统的对接,解决了网络传输、网络视频播放及存储问题,使其更加适合于县级气象部门电视天气预报的制作、传输及播放.     

A simple yet more accurate model to calculate solar radiative flux in the inhomogeneous atmosphere

A simple yet more accurate semiempirical model is developed to calculate solar radiative flux in the optically inhomogeneous atmosphere. In the model a parameterized expression of spherical reflectance and transmitance of the atmosphere is confirmed, and the weighted single scatter albedo and weighted asymmetric factor are introduced to fit four empirical correction factors responsible for radiative fluxes in the inhomogeneous atmosphere. For both clean and turbid models, there are 120060 sets of radiative flux simulations for accuracy checks of the model, which cover 0-50 cloud optical depths, 0-0.8 surface reflectance, Junge and Log-normal aerosol size distributions, and 0-0.05 imaginary parts of aerosol refractive indexes. In case of the homogeneous atmosphere, standard errors of the 120060 upward fluxes from the present model are 1.08% and 1.04% for clean and turbid aerosol models, respectively; and those of the downward fluxes are 4.12% and 3.31%. In case of the inhomogeneous atmosphere, standard errors of the upw ard fluxes from the present model are 3.01% and 3.48% for clean and turbid aerosol models.respectively; and those of the downward fluxes are 4.54% and 4.89%, showing a much better accuracy than the results calculated by using an assumption of the homogeneous atmosphere.     

Dry season precipitation over the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor is more sensitive to deforestation than to greenhouse gas driven climate change

To prevent the loss of biodiversity in northern Central America, which is one of 34 global biodiversity hotspots, the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, a network of protected parks and reserves has been proposed. While on-going deforestation to croplands and pastures outside the protected regions is likely to effect the dry season precipitation over the regenerated and extant forests in the proposed protected regions, global climate change driven precipitation changes may also be a significant factor, at least at some locations. This study compares the effects of land cover change to the effects of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations on precipitation in the proposed areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor network. Using 5 consecutive dry season simulations of the effects of land cover change that included dry, wet and normal years, and using statistically downscaled global climate model (GCM) precipitation from the fourth assessment report (AR4), a larger expanse of the proposed protected regions was found more sensitive to precipitation decreases due to land cover changes. Two specific protected regions however stand out: the Maya Highlands and some areas of the Maya lowlands that were more sensitive to global climate change driven precipitation decreases. In these protected regions it is likely that irrespective of local policies the climate change signal would dominate.     

PVA-maxima and their connection to cloud systems in satellite images and to precipitation

Summary PVA-maxima can be a contributor to upward motion; there-fore cloudiness and precipitation can be expected there. This is investigated from several viewpoints: grey shade evaluations of false colour satellite images are done, frequencies of precipitation events for PVA maxima and grey shade intervals are investigated, precipitation amounts within the PVA maxima path are compared to a surroundings and the predictability from the ECMWF model is proved. Several results could be derived: PVA maxima are accompanied by brighter grey shade intervals and a higher precipitation probability than surrounding areas; for the brightest grey shade intervals a probability for precipitation of 60–70% can be stated; the path of the PVA maxima is an area of more precipitation than in the surroundings; ECMWF forecasts are able to predict the PVA maxima and their location very well but tend to underestimate the precipitation amounts on the PVA maxima path.With 9 Figures