The household production function approach to valuing climate: the case of Japan

According to household production function theory households combine marketed goods and nonmarket environmental goods to produce service flows of direct value to the household. This readily explains why, as an input to household production activities, households might have preferences over the climate. Using techniques more frequently employed to account for differences in the demographic composition of households we use household production function theory to estimate climate equivalence scales using household expenditure data drawn from 51 Japanese cities over the period 2000–2009. Our results indicate that warmer temperatures result in a small but statistically highly significant reduction in the cost of living. Combining these estimates with climate change scenarios associated with the IPCC A2, A1B, and B1 emissions scenarios other things being equal points to a slight reduction in Japanese households’ cost of living.     

Water borrowing is consistently practiced globally and is associated with water-related system failures across diverse environments

Water problems due to scarcity, inaccessibility, or poor quality are a major barrier to household functioning, livelihood, and health globally. Household-to-household water borrowing has been posited as a strategy to alleviate unmet water needs. However, the prevalence and predictors of this practice have not been systematically examined. Therefore, we tested whether water borrowing occurs across diverse global contexts with varying water problems. Second, we tested if household water borrowing is associated with unmet water needs, perceived socio-economic status (SES), and/or water-related system failures, and if water access moderated (or changed) these relationships. Using survey data from the Household Water Insecurity Experiences (HWISE) study from 21 sites in 19 low- and middle-income countries (n = 5495 households), we found that household-to-household water borrowing was practiced in all 21 sites, with 44.7% (11.4–85.4%) of households borrowing water at least once the previous month. Multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression models demonstrate that high unmet water needs (odds ratio [OR] = 2.86], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.09–3.91), low perceived SES (OR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.05–1.13), and water-related system failures (23–258%) were all significantly associated with higher odds of water borrowing. Significant interactions (all p < 0.01) between water access, unmet water needs, and water-related system failures on water borrowing indicate that water access moderates these relationships. These data are the first to demonstrate that borrowing water is commonly used by households around the world to cope with water insecurity. Due to how prevalent water borrowing is, its implications for social dynamics, resource allocation, and health and well-being are likely vast but severely under-recognized.     

Impacts of land use intensification on human wellbeing: Evidence from rural Mozambique

Intensifying land use is often seen as a corollary of improving rural livelihoods in developing countries. However, land use intensification (LUI) frequently has unintended impacts on ecosystem services (ES), which may undermine the livelihoods of the same people who could benefit from intensification. Poorer households are disproportionately dependent on ES, so inequalities may also rise. A disaggregated analysis of LUI is thus fundamental to better understand how LUI can progress in an equitable manner. Using a suite of multi-scale, multidisciplinary social-ecological methods and operationalising multidimensional concepts of land use intensity and wellbeing, we examine three case studies in rural Mozambique. Drawing on interviews, focus group discussions, 1576 household surveys and geospatial data from 27 Mozambican villages, we assess how wellbeing and inequality change with three common LUI pathways: transitions to smallholder commercial crop production, charcoal production, and subsistence expansion. Wellbeing improved with intensification of smallholder commercial and subsistence agriculture, inequality did not change. Unsustainable intensification of charcoal production showed no overall effect on either wellbeing or inequality. Improvements in wellbeing amongst the poorest households were only found with intensification of commercial crop production, where villages had better access to markets. Our findings suggest that socioeconomic benefits from agricultural intensification and expansion may overcome localised environmental trade-offs, at least in the short term. However, unsustainable charcoal resource management and limited productive investment opportunities for rural households resulted in both reduced market access and limited wellbeing improvements. Sustainable and inclusive markets are therefore crucial developments alongside LUI to sustain wellbeing improvements for all households, to ensure that no one is left behind.     

Household dependence on solid cooking fuels in Peru: An analysis of environmental and socioeconomic conditions

Solid fuel use is linked with adverse effects on the environment and human health. Yet, solid fuels remain an important energy source for households in developing countries. Even when country-level dependence on solid fuels is modest, there is often significant variation in within-country patterns of solid fuel use. This study examines a range of environmental and socioeconomic conditions to understand the relationship between them and household energy use within a country. While our results are derived from a study of regional patterns of solid fuel dependence in Peru, the contribution of this study is broad: variables that we include in our models of households’ fuel choice decisions are likely to shape such decisions in most developing countries. Our findings indicate that environmental conditions, such as elevation and forest cover, are associated with solid fuel use. Socioeconomic factors, including urbanization, poverty and female literacy, are similarly important. In addition, we identify nuanced links between types of female employment and indigenous population, on the one hand, and solid fuel use, on the other.     

Stability and change within indigenous land use in the Ecuadorian Amazon

In the Amazon basin and other tropical forest regions, many forested landscapes are inhabited by indigenous peoples who are increasingly exposed to infrastructure expansion, large-scale natural resource extraction, and development programs. How indigenous land use evolves in this context will be a critical determinant of the future of these forests. To date, few studies have had access to longitudinal, large-sample and field-based data that enables the measurement of indigenous land use change and its correlates in these contexts. To address this lacuna, we make use of a unique multi-ethnic household survey conducted in 32 indigenous communities of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon in 2001 and again with the same households in 2012. We analyze these data to measure land use and land use change as well as their determinants. This reveals that the overall household agropastoral footprint has remained close to constant over time, but with important changes within particular land uses and ethnicities. Notably, cacao has largely replaced coffee (tracking commodity price changes), and Kichwa and Shuar households have intensified production on increasingly subdivided plots, with the Shuar specializing in cattle. In contrast, Waorani and Cofán households have maintained small footprints, while Secoya households largely abandoned cattle ranching. Taken together, the results emphasize ethnic heterogeneity in indigenous land use change, a pattern which is only visible through the use of a longitudinal, large-sample, field-based design.     

Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures: Empirical evidence from French flood disasters

Recent destructive flood events and projected increases in flood risks as a result of climate change in many regions around the world demonstrate the importance of improving flood risk management. Flood-proofing of buildings is often advocated as an effective strategy for limiting damage caused by floods. However, few empirical studies have estimated the damage that can be avoided by implementing such flood damage mitigation measures. This study estimates potential damage savings and the cost-effectiveness of specific flood damage mitigation measures that were implemented by households during major flood events in France. For this purpose, data about flood damage experienced and household flood preparedness were collected using a survey of 885 French households in three flood-prone regions that face different flood hazards. Four main conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, using regression analysis results in improved estimates of the effectiveness of mitigation measures than methods used by earlier studies that compare mean damage suffered between households who have, and who have not, taken these measures. Second, this study has provided empirical insights showing that some mitigation measures can substantially reduce damage during floods. Third, the effectiveness of the mitigation measures is very regional dependent, which can be explained by the different characteristics of the flood hazard in our sample areas that experience either slow onset river flooding or more rapid flash and coastal flooding. Fourth, the cost-efficiency of the flood damage mitigation measures depends strongly on the flood probability faced by households.     

Heat vulnerability and adaptation of low-income households in Germany

Heat waves associated with global warming are a significant hazard to human health, and they particularly endanger low-income households. In this study, we systematically analyze how the different components of heat vulnerability are related to household income, and present empirical evidence on the determinants of heat adaptation, focusing on the role of income. We contribute the first empirical analysis of heat vulnerability using household-level data at the national level, based on a longitudinal survey, including data points for 10,226 households in Germany in the period 2012–2020. Our results indicate that low income households are significantly more heat sensitive and have lower adaptive capacity than high income households, measured inter alia by health status, household composition, and economic and psychological resources to implement adaptation measures. However, heat hazard and exposure levels are comparable between income groups, hence there is no sorting of richer households into less hazardous or exposed locations on a national scale. We also contribute robust empirical evidence on the factors influencing household decisions to implement technical adaptation measures (e.g. installation of air conditioning), ultimately showing that the adaptation behavior of the most vulnerable households (e.g. people with poor health conditions or the elderly) is not limited by financial constraints.     

Informing national adaptation for sustainable development through spatial systems modelling

Acute climate-change hazards, such as floods or storm surges, can affect a nation’s built and natural environment assets that are critical for development and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To reduce the impacts of such acute climate-change hazards and safeguard development, national decision-makers require evidence on where and how hazards affect SDG achievement to better inform adaptation. Here, we develop a systems methodology that spatially models the impacts of climate-change hazards across a nation’s entire built and natural environment assets and its interdependent influences on the SDG targets to inform national adaptation. We apply our methodology in Saint Lucia through a participatory approach with decision-makers across 18 government ministries, academia, and the private sector. Results reveal that acute climate-change hazards can affect half of Saint Lucia’s assets across 22 sectors, which can influence 89% of all SDG targets. Application of our methodology provided evidence on where and how to prioritise adaptation, thereby helping to add spatial granularity to 52 measures under Saint Lucia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as specificity on how limited capacity for cross-sectoral coordination can be directed to safeguard SDG targets. Adaptation does not necessarily imply investing in physical asset protection: results show the need to protect critical natural environments which provide important adaptation services to the built environment. As more nations develop and revise their NAPs and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, strategic planning across sectors – as demonstrated in Saint Lucia – will be critical to facilitate adaptation that safeguards SDG achievement.     

Consequences of actor level livelihood heterogeneity for additionality in a tropical forest payment for environmental services programme with an undifferentiated reward structure

Primary tropical forests provide crucial environmental services, including carbon storage and hydrological regulation. Options for promoting forest conservation include payments for environmental services (PES) programmes that provide financial incentives to local actors, in exchange for reduced forest clearance. The success of voluntary PES (defined in terms of avoided primary forest conversion) is contingent upon behavioural changes in enrolled actors. As both the degree of enrolment and likelihood of sustained behavioural change depend upon how PES compensation structures interact with existing actor economies, local heterogeneity in livelihood strategies may play a strong role in the ultimate success of PES programmes, particularly when compensation is not differentiated with respect to opportunity costs. We examined the influence of livelihood heterogeneity on the potential success of a deforestation-reduction PES with an undifferentiated reward structure. We collected socioeconomic and demographic data at the household and community levels across two large Amazonian extractive reserves where a spatially extensive PES programme (Bolsa Floresta) operates. We show that demographic and socioeconomic status varies widely across households and communities, and found that both households and communities that are most and least likely to convert primary forest receive similar financial incentives. Those households most engaged in manioc agriculture (the primary driver of local primary forest conversion) both benefitted from the highest annual incomes and incurred the greatest opportunity costs. We show that avoided primary forest conversion could be greatly increased with differentiated payment structures adjusted for local differences in opportunity costs and livelihood strategies, and present two metrics that could help to achieve that goal.     

Exiting,enduring and innovating: Farm household adaptation to global zoonotic disease

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been found in 25 countries, costing billions of dollars in those affected economies, and has had profound social and environmental impacts at multiple scales of organization. As a global phenomenon, the impacts of BSE were mediated directly through the environment (animal and human health) but in Canada the indirect socioeconomic impacts of BSE were far more damaging, especially for farm households. Yet, very little research has been conducted on adaptation to the indirect impacts of global environmental change, such as those mediated through the market and governance. Our goal was to examine how farm households adapted to the Canadian BSE crisis in order to better understand rural adaptations to global zoonotic diseases and to agriculture-related global environmental change as a whole. We conducted our mixed methods research in 2004–2006. Data sources included 826 survey responses, 27 individual interviews and 12 group interviews with farmers and ranchers in western Canada. Factor analysis separated out responses into three general adaptation strategies: ‘innovating’ to pursue new opportunities; ‘enduring’ or adaptations that seek stability; and ‘exiting’ from beef production or agriculture altogether. Farm household and community level innovation was a crucial adaptive strategy in the absence of governmental and expert-based support. Enduring adaptations were important to farm household survival in the short term, yet “chronic enduring” can compromise long-term adaptive capacity. Farm exiting was highly problematic during the BSE crisis as these responses were largely unexpected and often left households more vulnerable. Government support at the farm level promoted stability, with little support provided for change-orientated adaptations. Effective farm adaptation will require support for all three types of adaptive strategies and ones that are both expert-based and grassroots in nature to enable farm households in their pursuit of pluriactive and multifunctional livelihood strategies.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Dealing with displacement: Can “social protection” facilitate long-term adaptation to climate change?

This article explores the possibilities of using social protection to manage and reduce the risks of forced displacement resulting from climate change. It reviews the relevant literature on migration, disasters and climate change, and constructs a model through which international policies may be used to encourage resettlement options that support the capabilities and entitlements of poor and vulnerable populations. By distinguishing between rapid-onset disasters and long-term environmental change, it explores the ways in which cash transfers, asset transfers and conditional cash transfers may be used to break the cycle of vulnerability, destitution and distress migration that can occur during times of severe environmental stress. An important distinction is made between “economic migration,” which implies that households have at their disposal an opportunity to engage in forward-looking analysis about the ways in which they will invest household resources and “distress migration,” which implies that household decisions about investment and migration are largely ad hoc responses to external environmental processes and events. The article reviews recent discussions about the prospects of revising the international refugee regime, and identifies the opportunities and challenges of using social protection to support household decisions that can facilitate economic migration over the long-term.     

What do we know about UK household adaptation to climate change? A systematic review

The UK Government’s first National Adaptation Programme seeks to create a ‘climate-ready society’ capable of making well-informed and far-sighted decisions to address risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate, where individual households are expected to adapt when it is in their interest to do so. How, and to what extent, households are able to do this remains unclear. Like other developed countries, research on UK adaptation has focused predominately on public and private organisations. To fill that gap, a systematic literature review was conducted to understand what actions UK households have taken in response to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate; what drives or impedes these actions; and whether households will act autonomously. We found that UK households struggle to build long-term adaptive capacity and are reliant upon traditional reactive coping responses. Of concern is that these coping responses are less effective for some climate risks (e.g. flooding); cost more over the long-term; and fail to create household capacity to adapt to other stresses. While low-cost, low-skill coping responses were already being implemented, the adoption of more permanent physical measures, behavioural changes, and acceptance of new responsibilities are unlikely to happen autonomously without further financial or government support. If public policy on household adaptation to climate change is to be better informed than more high-quality empirical research is urgently needed.     

Social cohesion and passive adaptation in relation to climate change and disease

Climate change affects biophysical processes related to the transmission of many infectious diseases, with potentially adverse consequences for the health of communities. While our knowledge of biophysical associations between meteorological factors and disease is steadily improving, our understanding of the social processes that shape adaptation to environmental perturbations lags behind. Using computational modeling methods, we explore the ways in which social cohesion can affect adaptation of disease prevention strategies when communities are exposed to different environmental scenarios that influence transmission pathways for diseases such as diarrhea. We developed an agent-based model in which household agents can choose between two behavioral strategies that offer different levels of protection against environmentally mediated disease transmission. One behavioral strategy is initially set as more protective, leading households to adopt it widely, but its efficacy is sensitive to variable weather conditions and stressors such as floods or droughts that modify the disease transmission system. The efficacy of the second strategy is initially moderate relative to the first and is insensitive to environmental changes. We examined how social cohesion (defined as average number of household social network connections) influences health outcomes when households attempt to identify an optimal strategy by copying the behaviors of socially connected neighbors who seem to have adapted successfully in the past. Our simulation experiments suggest that high-cohesion communities are able to rapidly disseminate the initially optimal behavioral strategy compared to low-cohesion communities. This rapid and pervasive change, however, decreases behavioral diversity; i.e., once a high cohesion community settles on a strategy, most or all households adopt that behavior. Following environmental changes that reduce the efficacy of the initially optimal strategy, rendering it suboptimal relative to the alternative strategy, high-cohesion communities can fail to adapt. As a result, despite faring better early in the course of computational experiments, high-cohesion communities may ultimately experience worse outcomes. In the face of uncertainty in predicting future environmental stressors due to climate change, strategies to improve effective adaptation to optimal disease prevention strategies should balance between intervention efforts that promote protective behaviors based on current scientific understanding and the need to guard against the crystallization of inflexible norms. Developing generalizable models allows us to integrate a wide range of theories and multiple datasets pertaining to the relationship between social mechanisms and adaptation, which can provide further understanding of future climate change impacts. Models such as the one we present can generate hypotheses about the mechanisms that underlie the dynamics of adaptation events and suggest specific points of measurement to assess the impact of these mechanisms. They can be incorporated as modules within predictive simulations for specific socio-ecological contexts.     

Wildfire preparedness,community cohesion and social–ecological systems

The consequences of wildfires are felt in susceptible communities around the globe on an annual basis. Climate change predictions in places like the south-east of Australia and western United States suggest that wildfires may become more frequent and more intense with global climate change. Compounding this issue is progressive urban development at the peri-urban fringe (wildland–urban interface), where continued infrastructure development and demographic changes are likely to expose more people and property to this potentially disastrous natural hazard. Preparing well in advance of the wildfire season is seen as a fundamental behaviour that can both reduce community wildfire vulnerability and increase hazard resilience – it is an important element of adaptive capacity that allows people to coexist with the hazardous environment in which they live. We use household interviews and surveys to build and test a substantive model that illustrates how social cohesion influences the decision to prepare for wildfire. We demonstrate that social cohesion, particularly community characteristics like ‘sense of community’ and ‘collective problem solving’, are community-based resources that support both the adoption of mechanical preparations, and the development of cognitive abilities and capacities that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to wildfire. We use the results of this work to highlight opportunities to transfer techniques and approaches from natural hazards research to climate change adaptation research to explore how the impacts attributed to the social components of social–ecological systems can be mitigated more effectively.     

Deciphering interwoven drivers of environment-related migration – A multisite case study from the Ethiopian highlands

Global environmental change is increasing livelihood pressure for many communities, and agricultural households in the Global South are particularly vulnerable. Extant research has debated whether and to what degree this amplifies migration flows while also acknowledging that migration can be an adaptive strategy. However, little is known about which contextual factors are most relevant and how they interact in shaping environment-related migration. We shed light on this issue by conducting an in-depth qualitative, yet multisite and medium-N study of farming households in the northern Ethiopian highlands. We utilized qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) – a novel approach in the research field – to overcome the existing methodological challenges. We found that the migration experience within the household in combination with either the usage of the longer summer rainy season (Kiremt) or non-farm in situ diversification are sufficient causes for migration. Non-farm income activities and favorable environmental conditions during the Kiremt season increases economic household resources and as such migration ability. However, only together with migrant networks, which can reduce the costs and risks of migration and shape migration aspirations, can these drivers explain why households engage in migration. Our findings reveal that capabilities and networks, rather than commonly cited push factors, are far more important drivers of environment-related migration at the household level. Additionally, we illustrate that while migration is an important adaptation strategy, it cannot be adopted equally among households and as a result often reinforces existing inequalities.     

Social capital,trust, and adaptation to climate change: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Climate change is expected to have particularly severe effects on poor agrarian populations. Rural households in developing countries adapt to the risks and impacts of climate change both individually and collectively. Empirical research has shown that access to capital—financial, human, physical, and social—is critical for building resilience and fostering adaptation to environmental stresses. Little attention, however, has been paid to how social capital generally might facilitate adaptation through trust and cooperation, particularly among rural households and communities. This paper addresses the question of how social capital affects adaptation to climate change by rural households by focusing on the relationship of household and collective adaptation behaviors. A mixed-methods approach allows us to better account for the complexity of social institutions—at the household, community, and government levels—which drive climate adaptation outcomes. We use data from interviews, household surveys, and field experiments conducted in 20 communities with 400 households in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Our results suggest that qualitative measures of trust predict contributions to public goods, a result that is consistent with the theorized role of social capital in collective action. Yet qualitative trust is negatively related to private household-level adaptation behaviors, which raises the possibility that social capital may, paradoxically, be detrimental to private adaptation. Policymakers should account for the potential difference in public and private adaptation behaviors in relation to trust and social capital when designing interventions for climate adaptation.     

基于计划行为理论的樱桃种植户对气候变化与气象灾害适应行为研究

了解农户气候变化与气象灾害适应行为影响机制对未来制定有效气候变化政策至关重要。基于计划行为理论,利用西安市白鹿原樱桃种植区农户的调查数据,结合结构方程模型分析樱桃种植户气候变化与气象灾害适应行为机制。研究表明,种植户关于气候变化与气象灾害的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制三者之间相互影响,且三者均可直接影响种植户适应气候变化与气象灾害的行为意向,其中行为态度对行为意向的影响最为显著;种植户的知觉行为控制对于气候变化及气象灾害的适应行为影响不显著;种植户对气候变化与气象灾害的行为意向是影响其适应行为最直接的因素。     

Smallholder farmer cropping decisions related to climate variability across multiple regions

A long history of household-level research has provided important local-level insights into climate adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. It remains unclear to what extent these strategies are generalizable or vary across regions. In this study we ask about three potential key factors influencing farming households’ ability to adapt: access to weather information, household and agricultural production-related assets, and participation in local social institutions. We use a 12-country data set from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to explore the links between these three potential drivers of agricultural change and the likelihood that farmers made farm-associated changes, such as adopting improved crop varieties, increasing fertilizer use, investing in improved land management practices, and changing the timing of agricultural activities. We find evidence that access to weather information, assets, and participation in social institutions are associated with households that have reported making farming changes in recent years, although these results vary across countries and types of practices. Understanding these drivers and outcomes of farm-associated changes across different socio-economic and environmental conditions is critical for ongoing dialogues for climate-resilient strategies and policies for increasing the adaptive capacity of smallholders under climate change.     

Factors affecting whether environmental migration is temporary or permanent: Evidence from Bangladesh

This study examines whether environmental migrants in Bangladesh move permanently or temporarily. The analyses are based on data collected in 2010 and 2011, and cover four themes, namely migrant characteristics, environmental change related factors, conflict and adaptation strategies, and social networks. The estimates obtained from binary logit models show that most sets of variables have statistically significant impacts on the temporary migration versus permanent migration decision. Females are more inclined to migrate temporarily, a finding which is consistent with prior studies that argued that female migration is one temporary household survival strategy in the face of an environmental crisis. The probability of intending to move temporarily is significantly affected by the prior occupational experience: Migrants who were previously engaged in agriculture or fishing are more inclined to migrate permanently. Those households who reported that they had lost assets due to environmental hazards are shown to have a higher probability of becoming permanent migrants. In contrast, loss of livestock and crop failure are associated with a greater likelihood of temporary migration. The empirical results reveal the groups that can be targeted in destination regions in settlement policy, and equally the groups whose return home can be facilitated once any immediate danger has passed.