Beyond Copenhagen: a realistic climate policy in a fragmented world

In this paper we argue that the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Accord, if used primarily to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, could compensate the lack of more energetic action on the domestic mitigation side. In order to maximize the mitigation potential, the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (CGCF) should be transformed into the International Bank for Emissions Allowance Acquisition (IBEAA) envisaged by Bradford (2008). We estimate that 50 percent of the CGCF in 2020 (50 US billions) could finance from 2.1 to 3.3?Gt CO2-eq emission reductions, depending on the domestic mitigation effort of Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. We construct a matrix that shows the level of GHGs emissions in 2020 under all possible combinations of abatement pledges and international mitigation financing, thus highlighting a rich set of options to reach the same level of GHGs emissions in 2020.     

Environmental policy under model uncertainty: a robust optimal control approach

The design of optimal environmental policy inherits model uncertainty. We investigate the consequences in a simple linear model, where the aim of the policymaker is to stabilise the atmospheric content of carbon. We study how decision-makers’ concerns about robustness alters policy using the Hansen and Sargent (2003, 2008) approach. The analysis shows that a policymaker, who fears about model misspecification should react more aggressively to changes in the stock of atmospheric carbon and reduce emissions stronger.     

一类时滞不确定离散系统的鲁棒自适应滑模控制

主要研究一类具有不确定项和外部扰动的离散时滞系统的鲁棒自适应控制,假设扰动和不确定项是有界的,而扰动和关于状态的不确定项的边界是不必知道的.设计了自适应控制器以保证系统能在有限时间内到达切换面,并且收敛到包含原点的一定的有界区域内.仿真的结果说明了该方法的有效性.     

Adaptation to an uncertain climate change: cost benefit analysis and robust decision making for dam dimensioning

Climate models project large changes in rainfall, but disagree on their magnitude and sign. The consequences of this uncertainty on optimal dam dimensioning is assessed for a small mountainous catchment in Greece. Optimal dam design is estimated using a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) based on trends in seasonal temperature and precipitations from 19 IPCC-AR4 climate models driven by the the SRES A2 emission scenario. Optimal reservoir volumes are modified by climate change, leading to up to 34% differences between optimal volumes. Contrary to widely-used target-based approaches, the CBA suggests that reduced rainfall should lead to smaller water reservoirs. The resulting change in the Net Present Value (NPV) of water supply is also substantial, ranging from no change to a large 25% loss, depending on the climate model, even assuming optimal adaptation and perfect foresight. In addition, climate change uncertainty can lead to design errors, with a cost ranging from 0.3 to 2.8% of the NPV, depending on site characteristics. This paper proposes to complement the CBA with a robust decision-making approach that focuses on reducing design-error costs. It also suggests that climate change impacts in the water sector may reveal large, that water reservoirs do not always provide a cost-efficient adaptation strategy, and that alternative adaptation strategies based on water conservation and non-conventional water production need to be considered.     

Forests in a warming world: A time for new policies

Forests contain more than twice as much carbon as the atmosphere and process through their metabolism about 1/7 of the atmospheric carbon annually. Deforestation currently is adding carbon to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide at an increasing rate and causing the impoverishment of soils over large areas in the tropics. But deforestation is also occurring in the temperate and boreal forests. In most cases deforestation is the result of national policies. It proceeds in the United States in response to economic pressures and political weakness, even corruption.The re-establishment of forests has the potential for contributing to the stabilization of the composition of the atmosphere by removing carbon as carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it on land for an indefinite period. Such a transition in land use is difficult to imagine in a world in which the human population is expanding continuously and impoverished land is accumulating.Global interests in management of forests introduce a new element into international relations. Progress in effecting the shifts in controls on land use required to control deforestation in the interests of stabilizing climate and preserving biotic resources will depend on clear definition of the details of the problem by the scientific community and a further definition of how to proceed.     

Co-productive governance: A relational framework for adaptive governance

Adaptive governance focuses our attention on the relationships between science and management, whereby the so-called ‘gaps’ between these groups are seen to hinder effective adaptive responses to biophysical change. Yet the relationships between science and governance, knowledge and action, remain under theorized in discussions of adaptive governance, which largely focuses on abstract design principles or preferred institutional arrangements. In contrast, the metaphor of co-production highlights the social and political processes through which science, policy, and practice co-evolve. Co-production is invoked as a normative goal (Mitchell et al., 2004) and analytical lens (Jasanoff, 2004a, Jasanoff, 2004b), both of which provide useful insight into the processes underpinning adaptive governance. This paper builds on and integrates these disparate views to reconceptualize adaptive governance as a process of co-production. I outline an alternative conceptual framing, ‘co-productive governance’, that articulates the context, knowledge, process, and vision of governance. I explore these ideas through two cases of connectivity conservation, which draws on conservation science to promote collaborative cross-scale governance. This analysis highlights the ways in which the different contexts of these cases produced very different framings and responses to the same propositions of science and governance. Drawing on theoretical and empirical material, co-productive governance moves beyond long standing debates that institutions can be rationally crafted or must emerge from context resituate adaptive governance in a more critical and contextualized space. This reframing focuses on the process of governance through an explicit consideration of how normative considerations shape the interactions between knowledge and power, science and governance.     

Increasing world consumption of beef as a driver of regional and global change: A call for policy action based on evidence from Queensland (Australia), Colombia and Brazil

While the global community is seeking to reduce fossil fuel consumption, a parallel but equally important issue is the environmental impacts of increased world consumption of beef. We provide a comparative analysis and synthesis of the expansion of beef cattle production and its regional and global environmental impacts for Queensland (Australia), Colombia and Brazil. Evidence assembled indicates that rising beef consumption is a major driver of regional and global change, and warrants greater policy attention. We propose four policy imperatives to help mitigate escalating environmental impacts of beef: stop subsidising beef production and promoting beef consumption; control future expansion of soybeans and extensive grazing; protect and restore regrowth forests in grazing lands; and allocate resources to less environmentally damaging alternative land uses.     

Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has two characteristics that make it useful for managing climate risk: it is quick and it is cheap. SRM cannot, however, perfectly offset CO₂-driven climate change, and its use introduces novel climate and environmental risks. We introduce SRM in a simple economic model of climate change that is designed to explore the interaction between uncertainty in the climate’s response to CO₂ and the risks of SRM in the face of carbon-cycle inertia. The fact that SRM can be implemented quickly, reducing the effects of inertia, makes it a valuable tool to manage climate risks even if it is relatively ineffective at compensating for CO₂-driven climate change or if its costs are large compared to traditional abatement strategies. Uncertainty about SRM is high, and decision makers must decide whether or not to commit to research that might reduce this uncertainty. We find that even modest reductions in uncertainty about the side-effects of SRM can reduce the overall costs of climate change in the order of 10%.     

Multiple adaptation types with mitigation: A framework for policy analysis

Effective climate policy will consist of mitigation and adaptation implemented simultaneously in a policy portfolio to reduce the risks of climate change. Previous studies of the tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation have implicitly framed the problem deterministically, choosing the optimal paths for all time. Because climate change is a long-term problem with significant uncertainties and opportunities to learn and revise, critical tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation in the near-term have not been considered. We propose a new framework for considering the portfolio of mitigation and adaptation that explicitly treats the problem as a multi-stage decision under uncertainty. In this context, there are additional benefits to near-term investments if they reduce uncertainty and lead to improved future decisions. Two particular features are fundamental to understanding the relevant tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation: (1) strategy dynamics over time in reducing climate damages, and (2) strategy dynamics under uncertainty and potential for learning. Our framework strengthens the argument for disaggregating adaption as has been proposed by others. We present three stylized classes of adaptation investment types as a conceptual framework: short-lived “flow” spending, committed “stock” investment, and lower capacity “option” stock with the capability of future upgrading. In the context of sequential decision under uncertainty, these subtypes of adaptation have important tradeoffs among them and with mitigation. We argue that given the large policy uncertainty that we face currently, explicitly considering adaptation “option” investments is a valuable component of a near-term policy response that can balance between the flexible flow and committed stock approaches, as it allows for the delay of costly stock investments while at the same time allowing for lower-cost risk management of future damages.     

Trees,forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world

Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental and global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use and water management. This constrains humanity’s ability to protect our planet’s climate and life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, water and energy interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, for cooling terrestrial surfaces and for distributing water resources. Forests and trees must be recognized as prime regulators within the water, energy and carbon cycles. If these functions are ignored, planners will be unable to assess, adapt to or mitigate the impacts of changing land cover and climate. Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority. For reasons of sustainability, carbon storage must remain a secondary, though valuable, by-product. The effects of tree cover on climate at local, regional and continental scales offer benefits that demand wider recognition. The forest- and tree-centered research insights we review and analyze provide a knowledge-base for improving plans, policies and actions. Our understanding of how trees and forests influence water, energy and carbon cycles has important implications, both for the structure of planning, management and governance institutions, as well as for how trees and forests might be used to improve sustainability, adaptation and mitigation efforts.     

Climate change and the world predicament: A case study for interdisciplinary research

The relationship between climatic change and issues of population, food, resources, environment and the human condition i.e., the world predicament, are explored. It is concluded that society is dangerously vulnerable to natural climatic variability at times of depleted food reserves (such as now) and that massive use of technologies (especially energy) to improve the human condition could well cause significant climatic change as early as the year 2000. Therefore, these problems cannot be addressed in the sole context of disciplinary research, and the obstacles and opportunities for interdisciplinary research at academic institutions are explored. Criteria for interdisciplinary research quality review are suggested, and contrasted to traditional peer review processes.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Climate change and agriculture: A perspective on priorities for economic policy

Research on the effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture and world grain markets suggests that adaptation will occur with relatively small effects on total production. Additional research shows that reducing emission of greenhouse gases from U.S. agricultural production is relatively expensive compared to encouraging reforestation as an offset to emissions of carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, continued population growth and the increasing inequality of income across countries are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of climate change. Concepts of sustainability should be expanded to cover industrial as well as agricultural production, and promote the efficient use of fossil fuels in general. Dealing with climate change effectively will require international cooperation and a willingness to address population growth and the divergence of incomes between rich and poor countries.     

The world economy in a cube: A more rational structural representation of sustainability

National economic systems are investigated in a 3-axis diagram where three different indicators are used to account for resource use, societal organization, and goods and services produced, respectively. This framework is consistent with an input-state-output (environment–society–economy) scheme based on a logical, physical and thermodynamic order between the three dimensions of sustainability. This approach highlights which input-state-output relations are realized and which relations are less common in the behavior of these systems. It assesses and overcomes major drawbacks of common representations of sustainability. Within a cube diagram, 99 national economies are ranked and grouped into 8 categories, which are labeled to reflect the main characteristics of their behavior according to the three environmental, social and economic parameters. A cluster analysis is also performed in order to statistically support the classification and strengthen the interpretation of results. Results show that no countries exhibit a dematerialization of economic activity and that non-sustainable economic activity can take place over a wide range of income distributions (Gini coefficients).     

Building a regime for climate protection: Finland and international climate policy

The effective management of climate change on a national as well as an international level requires close co-operation between the scientific community and the political sector. Climate change first became a major subject of scientific inquiry in the early 1980s, and real political interest in the issue was awakened towards the end of that decade. In the last few years, the dialogue between the scientific community and the political sector has increased considerably. As a result, climate change is today one of the most significant areas in environmental research and international environmental policy alike.This paper examines the emergence and consolidation of international climate change regime. The theory of regime building is used as discussed by Young (1989). International Cooperation. Cornell University Press, Ithaca. The paper begins with an outline of the historical emergence of climate research and climate policy. This is followed by a discussion of the history and development of the Rio Convention, with a look at the latest developments in international climate politics. The next section begins with an examination of the foundations and present strategies of Finnish climate policy, which is used as a case study, and the paper concludes with an assessment of the current state of Finnish climate policy, illustrating the problems of compliance individual countries face when adopting the norms and principles of the regime.     

Studying local climate adaptation: A heuristic research framework for comparative policy analysis

Climate change poses a significant risk for communities, and local governments around the world have begun responding by developing climate adaptation policies. Scholarship on local adaptation policy has proliferated in recent years, but insufficient attention has been paid to operationalization of the unit of analysis, and methods employed are typically inadequate to draw inferences about variation across cases. This article seeks to contribute to the conceptual and methodological foundations of a research agenda for comparative analysis of local adaptation policies and policy-making. Synthesizing insights from policy studies literature and existing adaptation research, the article identifies and operationalizes two aspects of public policy—policy content and policy process—which are salient objects of comparative analysis that typically vary from one community to another. The article also addresses research design, outlining a comparative case study methodology that incorporates various qualitative analytical techniques as the vehicle to examine these policy elements in empirical settings.     

Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).