Lessons from the past for sustainability transitions? A meta-analysis of socio-technical studies

To break away from techno-institutional lock-in in climate change and in other sustainability problems, many have focused on innovation in technological ‘niches’. The destabilisation of the incumbent ‘regime’ has been neglected and external ‘landscape’ pressures under-analysed. With this in mind, this article examines the factors of regime destabilisation and forms of regime resistance in past technological transitions in energy and transport. It analyses 23 energy (electricity, heat & chemicals) and 11 transport (drive chain, networks, fuels & land planning) transitions pre-1990. Furthermore, in order to properly frame these results and make any “lessons from the past” applicable to the present, this article includes an assessment of current sustainability trends.The key lessons from past energy transitions are that regime outsiders with the right ideology and influence on the market can destabilise the energy sector, which has traditionally had strong incumbents. As incumbents are weakened, past transport transitions show that further change may come from emphasising the Health and Lifestyle benefits of sustainability transitions.     

Conflicted transitions: Exploring the actors,tactics, and outcomes of social opposition against energy infrastructure

Given the growing frequency, severity, and salience of social mobilization and community action on energy and climate issues, in this study we systematically explore the configurations of types of infrastructure, actors, tactics, and outcomes of recent opposition to energy transitions across seven carbon-intensive regions in Asia, Europe, and North America. Based on both a literature review and an original dataset of 130 case studies spanning the past decade, we track opposition to a wide range of energy infrastructure in these regions, including low-carbon options such as renewable energy and nuclear power; provide network analyses of the actors and coalitions involved in such events; and develop a typology and frequency analysis of tactics (such as litigation or protest), and outcomes (such as remuneration, policy change, concessions, or labor protections). We show that the politics of energy transitions in carbon-intensive regions varies significantly from country to country and across types of energy, and we discuss how the configurations of infrastructure, actors, tactics, and outcomes can be explained by differences in national institutions and their responses to global or supranational pressures. By bringing both a sociotechnical and comparative perspective to the global analysis of social movements and energy transitions, we suggest how goals of energy transition are refracted through national and subnational institutions and through local mobilizations both in support of and opposed to those transitions.     

Investing in low-carbon transitions: energy finance as an adaptive market

The amount of capital required to transition energy systems to low-carbon futures is very large, yet analysis of energy systems change has been curiously quiet on the role of capital markets in financing energy transitions. This is surprising given the huge role finance and investment must play in facilitating transformative change. We argue this has been due to a lack of suitable theory to supplant neoclassical notions of capital markets and innovation finance. This research draws on the notion from Planetary economics: Energy, climate change and the three domains of sustainable development, by Grubb and colleagues, that planetary economics is defined by three ‘domains’, which describe behavioural, neoclassical, and evolutionary aspects of energy and climate policy analysis. We identify first- and second-domain theories of finance that are well established, but argue that third-domain approaches, relating to evolutionary systems change, have lacked a compatible theory of capital markets. Based on an analysis of electricity market reform and renewable energy finance in the UK, the ‘adaptive market hypothesis' is presented as a suitable framework with which to analyse energy systems finance. Armed with an understanding of financial markets as adaptive, scholars and policy makers can ask new questions about the role of capital markets in energy systems transitions.

Policy relevance

This article explores the role of financial markets in capitalising low-carbon energy systems and long-term change. The authors demonstrate that much energy and climate policy assumes financial markets are efficient, meaning they will reliably capitalise low-carbon transitions if a rational return is created by subsidy regimes or other market mechanisms. The authors show that the market for renewable energy finance does not conform to the efficient markets hypothesis, and is more in line with an ‘adaptive’ markets understanding. Climate and energy policy makers that design policy, strategy, and regulation on the assumption of efficient financial markets will not pay attention to structural and behavioural constraints on investment; they risk falling short of the investment levels needed for long-term systems change. In short, by thinking of financial markets as adaptive, the range of policy responses to enable low-carbon investment can be much broader.     

Landscape for change? International climate policy and energy transitions: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

What is the role of the climate regime in facilitating rapid decarbonization of the world’s energy systems? We examine how core assumptions concerning the roles of the nation state, carbon markets and finance and technology in international climate policy are being challenged by the realities of how transitions in the energy systems are unfolding. Drawing on the critical region of sub-Saharan Africa, we examine the potential for international climate policy to foster new trajectories towards decarbonization.

Policy relevance

The international regime for climate policy has been in place for some twenty years. Despite significant changes in the landscape of energy systems and drivers of global GHG emissions over this time, the core principles and tools remain relatively stable – national governments, carbon markets, project-based climate finance and the transfer of technological hardware. Given the diversity of actors and drivers and the limited direct reach and influence of international climate policy, however, there is an urgent need to consider how the climate regime can best support the embryonic transitions that are slowly taking form around the world. To do this effectively requires a more nuanced understanding of the role of the state in governing these transitions beyond the notion of a cohesive state serving as rule-enforcer and transition manager. It also requires a broader view of technology, not just as hardware that is transferred, but as a set of practices and networks of expertise and enabling actors. Likewise, though markets have an important role to play as vehicles for achieving broader ends, they are not an end in themselves. Finally on finance, while acknowledging the important role of climate aid, often as a multiplier or facilitator of more ambitious private flows, it is critical to differentiate between the types of finance required for different transitions, many of which will not be counted under, or directed by, the climate regime. In sum, the (low-) carbon economy is being built in ways and in numerous sites that the climate regime needs to be cognizant of and engage with productively, and this may require fundamental reconsideration of the building blocks of the international climate regime.     

The Slippery Slopes of Climate Engineering Research

Climate engineering research attracts Slippery Slope concerns – the idea that initial research will inevitably lead to inappropriate deployment. Some have dismissed it as an unrealistic, unproductive critique. However, extant climate engineering discussions of the Slippery Slope discuss an unorganised set of different causal mechanisms with little detail. These range from technological cost reduction, to the creation of special interest lobby groups, to normalisation across society and policymakers. Dismissing the Slippery Slope may be premature if its causal nature is unclear, especially given the potentially high impacts and controversy of global climate engineering deployment. Disaggregating and clarifying the Slippery Slope can reduce unnecessary ambiguity, promote productive debate, and highlight risks that require further attention. Drawing on previous Slippery Slope literature and mechanisms of change from range of disciplines, this paper creates a typology of Slippery Slopes for application to stratospheric aerosol injection and other emerging technologies. Initial research can lead to deployment by 1) sparking price-performance improvements and sunk cost biases, 2) contributing to normalisation and legitimisation, 3) altering power structures, 4) sparking hype, and 5) incrementally progressing development. These feedback loops may currently seem unlikely, but unforeseen dynamics could still trigger rapid development and implementation of stratospheric aerosol injection. Conversely, there is no guarantee one of these Slippery Slopes will occur. The point is that they could – the future is too uncertain to fully dismiss non-linear change, particularly for high impact and accessible technologies like stratospheric aerosol injection. This can provide direction and clarity for effective technology governance and Slippery Slope discussion. Furthermore, this typology differentiates the Slippery Slope from lock-in and highlights their interaction points. Slippery Slope dynamics are processes that can (but are not guaranteed to) lead to different types of lock-in. Lock-in is when a technology is entrenched in existing sociotechnical systems. Given the risks of unchecked undesired lock-in, lock-in is a state to be encouraged instead of avoided.     

准地转理论基本问题回顾与讨论

准地转理论是大气动力学的中心问题之一,它提供了从大气动力学基本原理入手分析大尺度天气系统演变的方法。准地转理论有助于预报员理解中高纬度大尺度天气系统的三维结构,分析、预报天气系统的发展和移动,因此被称为短期天气预报的理论基础。准地转理论具有完整的理论体系,它包含了较多的基本假定,故容易导致对其中的一些基本问题的理解有混淆。本文从基础的动力学知识出发,对准地转理论的基本概念、基本近似、核心理论及其在实际天气预报过程中的应用作了回顾和讨论。内容包括:准地转运动与准地转近似定义、准地转运动理论的范畴、天气图上的大尺度运动、准地转运动理论与短期天气预报的关系、由斜压二层模式下的准地转理论对高空槽脊和地面气旋发展与移动的判断等。     

Towards urban water sustainability: Analyzing management transitions in Miami,Las Vegas,and Los Angeles

As climate change challenges the sustainability of existing water supplies, many cities must transition toward more sustainable water management practices to meet demand. However, scholarly knowledge of the factors that drive such transitions is lacking, in part due to the dearth of comparative analyses in the existing transitions literature. This study seeks to identify common factors associated with transitions toward sustainability in urban water systems by comparing transitions in three cases: Miami, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. For each case, we develop a data-driven narrative that integrates case-specific contextual data with standardized, longitudinal metrics of exposures theorized to drive transition. We then compare transitions across cases, focusing on periods of accelerated change (PoACs), to decouple generic factors associated with transition from those unique to individual case contexts. From this, we develop four propositions about transitions toward sustainable urban water management. We find that concurrent exposure to water stress and heightened public attention increases the probability of a PoAC (1), while other factors commonly expected to drive transition (e.g. financial stress) are unrelated (2). Moreover, the timing of exposure alignment (3) and the relationship between exposures and transition (4) may vary according to elements of the system’s unique context, including the institutional and infrastructure design and hydro-climatic setting. These propositions, as well as the methodology used to derive them, provide a new model for future research on how cities respond to climate-driven water challenges.     

Onset and end of the summer melt season over sea ice: thermal structure and surface energy perspective from SHEBA

Various measurements from the Surface Heat Flux of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment have been combined to study structures and processes producing the onset and end of summer melt over Arctic sea ice. The analysis links the surface energy budget to free-troposphere synoptic variables, clouds, precipitation, and in-ice temperatures. The key results are (1) SHEBA melt-season transitions are associated with atmospheric synoptic events (2) onset of melt clearly occurs on May 28, while the end of melt is produced by a sequence of three atmospheric storm events over a 28-day period producing step-like reductions in the net surface energy flux. The last one occurs on August 22.; (3) melt onset is primarily due to large increases in the downwelling longwave radiation and modest decreases in the surface albedo; (4) decreases in the downwelling longwave radiation occur for all end-of-melt transition steps, while increases in surface albedo occur for the first two; (5) decreases in downwelling shortwave radiation contribute only to the first end-of-melt transition step; (6) springtime free-tropospheric warming preconditions the atmosphere–ice system for the subsequent melt onset; and (7) melt-season transitions also mark transitions in system responses to radiative energy flux changes because of invariant melt-season surface temperatures. The extensive SHEBA observations enable an understanding of the complex processes not available from other field program data. The analysis provides a basis for future testing of the generality of the results, and contributes to better physical understanding of multi-year analyses of melt-season trends from less extensive data sets.     

Pathways: An emerging concept for the theory and governance of low-carbon transitions

The concept of “pathways” has increasingly come to frame the challenge of transitioning to low-carbon societies. It also shows promise as a bridging concept, encouraging constructive dialogue among the diverse perspectives and constituencies evoking its use. However, its interpretations and attributes are rarely explicit and have yet to be subject to serious scrutiny. This raises important questions for both theory and governance as the way in which a problem is framed shapes how it is understood and addressed, structuring the possibilities considered and privileging certain responses. Therefore, this study explores the concept of pathways in the context of low-carbon transitions, exposing its conceptions, maturation, and implications. Based on a survey of the relevant climate change mitigation literature, this analysis uncovers three core conceptions of pathways in the context of low-carbon transitions: (1) biophysical, (2) techno-economic, and (3) socio-technical. Constituted by diverse perspectives and approaches, each of these three core conceptions emphasize different yet interconnected dimensions of the decarbonization challenge. This analysis also points to several key attributes and functions of the concept of pathways. Yet, while the concept may possess a variety of features that recommend its use as a critical problem frame for low-carbon transitions, it also raises issues that suggest a need for further reflexivity. If the concept is cast too strongly in terms of individual core conceptions, there may be a tendency to emphasize certain dynamics while paying somewhat less attention to others, inadvertently diminishing the complexity of the decarbonization challenge. Beyond this, there are other facets of the concept that have to date received more limited attention, including the implications of choices at critical junctures and the evolving character of social practices. So, there is room for the concept of pathways to engage more fully with the range of complexities embodied by low-carbon transitions.     

Economic and environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol

Abstract

The present stalemate in climate negotiations between the USA and the other Annex I countries has led policy analysts and economists to explore the possible emergence of alternative climate regimes that may be applied after 2012. This article explores the idea of replacing international cooperation on greenhouse gas emission control with international cooperation on climate-related technological innovation and diffusion. This idea—recently proposed among others by Barrett (2001) and Benedick (2001)—is based on the insight that incentives to free-ride are much smaller in the case of technological cooperation than in the case of cooperation on emission control. This article provides a first applied game theory analysis of a technology-based climate protocol by assessing: (i) the self-enforcingness (namely, the absence of incentives to free-ride) of the coalition that would form when countries negotiate on climate-related technological cooperation; (ii) the environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol. The analysis is carried out by using a model in which endogenous and induced technical change are explicitly modelled. The results of our analysis partly support Barrett's and Benedick's conjectures. On the one hand, a self-enforcing agreement is more likely to emerge when countries cooperate on environmental technological innovation and diffusion than when they cooperate on emission abatement. However, technological cooperation—without any commitment to emission control—may not lead to a sufficient abatement of greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Desperately seeking niches: Grassroots innovations and niche development in the community currency field

The sustainability transitions literature seeks to explain the conditions under which technological innovations can diffuse and disrupt existing socio-technical systems through the successful scaling up of experimental ‘niches’; but recent research on ‘grassroots innovations’ argues that civil society is a promising but under-researched site of innovation for sustainability, albeit one with very different characteristics to the market-based innovation normally considered in the literature. This paper aims to address that research gap by exploring the relevance of niche development theories in a civil society context. To do this, we examine a growing grassroots innovation – the international field of community currencies – which comprises a range of new socio-technical configurations of systems of exchange which have emerged from civil society over the last 30 years, intended to provide more environmentally and socially sustainable forms of money and finance. We draw on new empirical research from an international study of these initiatives comprising primary and secondary data and documentary sources, elite interviews and participant observation in the field. We describe the global diffusion of community currencies, and then conduct a niche analysis to evaluate the utility of niche theories for explaining the development of the community currency movement. We find that some niche-building processes identified in the existing literature are relevant in a grassroots context: the importance of building networks, managing expectations and the significance of external ‘landscape’ pressures, particularly at the level of national-type. However, our findings suggest that existing theories do not fully capture the complexity of this type of innovation: we find a diverse field addressing a range of societal systems (money, welfare, education, health, consumerism), and showing increasing fragmentation (as opposed to consolidation and standardisation); furthermore, there is little evidence of formalised learning taking place but this has not hampered movement growth. We conclude that grassroots innovations develop and diffuse in quite different ways to conventional innovations, and that niche theories require adaptation to the civil society context.     

风云二号02批气象卫星数据处理中心软件工程方法

数据处理中心是风云二号02批静止气象卫星地面应用系统的核心业务处理系统之一。该文描述了风云二号02批卫星的业务特征；对科研阶段研制的数据处理中心应用软件在稳定业务运行方面尚有的欠缺做出分析；根据软件工程的再工程理论，提出使用逆向工程方法，进行数据、代码、接口和文档的重构；对数据处理中心的业务流程进行构造，对业务系统进行逻辑层次的结构设计。     

A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.     

Linking model design and application for transdisciplinary approaches in social-ecological systems

As global environmental change continues to accelerate and intensify, science and society are turning to transdisciplinary approaches to facilitate transitions to sustainability. Modeling is increasingly used as a technological tool to improve our understanding of social-ecological systems (SES), encourage collaboration and learning, and facilitate decision-making. This study improves our understanding of how SES models are designed and applied to address the rising challenges of global environmental change, using mountains as a representative system. We analyzed 74 peer-reviewed papers describing dynamic models of mountain SES, evaluating them according to characteristics such as the model purpose, data and model type, level of stakeholder involvement, and spatial extent/resolution. Slightly more than half the models in our analysis were participatory, yet only 21.6% of papers demonstrated any direct outreach to decision makers. We found that SES models tend to under-represent social datasets, with ethnographic data rarely incorporated. Modeling efforts in conditions of higher stakeholder diversity tend to have higher rates of decision support compared to situations where stakeholder diversity is absent or not addressed. We discuss our results through the lens of appropriate technology, drawing on the concepts of boundary objects and scalar devices from Science and Technology Studies. We propose four guiding principles to facilitate the development of SES models as appropriate technology for transdisciplinary applications: (1) increase diversity of stakeholders in SES model design and application for improved collaboration; (2) balance power dynamics among stakeholders by incorporating diverse knowledge and data types; (3) promote flexibility in model design; and (4) bridge gaps in decision support, learning, and communication. Creating SES models that are appropriate technology for transdisciplinary applications will require advanced planning, increased funding for and attention to the role of diverse data and knowledge, and stronger partnerships across disciplinary divides. Highly contextualized participatory modeling that embraces diversity in both data and actors appears poised to make strong contributions to the world’s most pressing environmental challenges.     

Evaluation of pan-Arctic melt-freeze onset in CMIP5 climate models and reanalyses using surface observations

The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today.     

The dynamics of uncertainty: application to parameterization constants in climate models

Climate models, ranging from statistical-dynamical to the explicit-dynamical, contain a range of uncertainties related to the parameterization constants associated with the various forcing terms used therein. Quantifying the impacts of such uncertainties has heretofore received little attention. The impact of this aspect of the dynamics of uncertainty was revealed in a series of dynamical systems of increasing complexity. The inevitability of climate drift was discussed, with one aspect being revealed as the non-Gaussian nature of most forcing terms. For those dynamical systems which are chaotic in nature, it was shown how stochastic dynamic equations can be used to describe the uncertainty, even with uncertainty in the critical forcing terms. The possibility of climate transitions driven by stochastic forcing occurring on much faster time scales (i.e., weather disturbances) has been shown by numerous authors. The caution shown here is that even very small uncertainty in a forcing term occurring on the slow climate time scales can lead to such transitions more easily. Conversely, a deterministic parameterization on the slowly varying time scale may be just slightly incorrect in a particular model formulation and lead to the wrong climatic state. In view of such concerns, the framework for attacking the difficult nonlinear problem of uncertain parameterization constants in complex GCMs is outlined.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

系统辨识(8):耦合辨识概念与方法

耦合辨识是系统辨识的一个重要分支,是新近发展和提炼形成的一种辨识概念,主要用于研究结构复杂的参数耦合线性和非线性多变量系统的辨识问题.辅助模型辨识思想、多新息辨识理论、递阶辨识原理、耦合辨识概念是本文作者提出的一些新的辨识研究思路、理念和方法,分别能够用于研究存在未知过程变量的不可测系统的辨识,能够提高辨识方法的收敛速度和参数估计精度,能够解决结构复杂、大规模多变量系统及参数耦合多变量系统的辨识问题、减小辨识算法的计算量.首先介绍多变量系统耦合辨识概念,在此基础上讨论多变量系统的几种(全)耦合最小二乘辨识方法、(全)耦合随机梯度辨识方法、部分耦合随机梯度辨识方法、部分耦合最小二乘辨识方法等,最后说明耦合辨识方法可推广用于有色噪声干扰多变量系统的辨识,并列出了一些多变量系统模型结构,阐述了耦合辨识概念可以结合辅助模型辨识思想、多新息辨识理论、递阶辨识原理、迭代搜索原理(梯度迭代、最小二乘迭代、牛顿迭代)等来研究线性或非线性多变量系统的辨识问题.     

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.     

从毛里求斯国际探空系统对比看全球探空技术的发展

文章介绍了2005年2月7~25日在毛里求斯举行的由芬兰、日本、美国、法国、英国、德国、瑞士6个国家的厂商生产的探空系统参加的探空系统国际对比试验,本次对比试验堪称高精度探空系统对比。文中主要介绍分析了这些探空系统技术结构和性能特点。这些探空系统具有体积小、重量轻、信号接收和数据处理自动化、通信频道窄、采用GPS技术测风、传感器体积小、响应速度快的技术特点,体现了全球探空技术发展趋势。