“Climate-smart agriculture and food security: Cross-country evidence from West Africa”

In the face of climate change and extreme weather events which continue to have significant impacts on agricultural production, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has emerged as one important entry point in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases and building climate resilience while ensuring increases in agricultural productivity with ensuing implications on food and nutrition security. We examine the relationship between CSA, land productivity (yields), and food security using a survey of farm households in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria. To understand the correlates of the adoption of these CSA practices as well as the association between CSA, yields, and food security, we use switching regressions that account for multiple endogenous treatments. We find a positive association between the adoption of CSA practices and yields. This increase in yields translate to food security as we observe a positive association between CSA and food consumption scores. Although we show modest associations between the independent use of CSA practices such as adopting climate-smart groundnut varieties, cereal-groundnut intercropping, and the use of organic fertilizers, we find that bundling these practices may lead to greater yield and food security gains. Under the different combinations, the use of climate-smart groundnut varieties exhibit the strongest association with yields and food security. We also estimate actual-counterfactual relationships where we show that the adoption of CSA practices is not only beneficial to CSA adopters but could potentially be beneficial to non-CSA adopters should they adopt. These results have implications for reaching some of the sustainable development targets, especially the twin goals of increasing agricultural productivity and maintaining environmental sustainability.     

On the coattails of climate? Opportunities and threats of a warming Earth for biodiversity conservation

The relationship between climate change and biodiversity was a central issue at the 10th Conference of the Parties (COP 10) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). In this paper we draw from participant observation data collected at COP 10, and related policy documentation, to examine how concerns about climate change are shaping the conservation policy landscape – in terms of the knowledge and rationales used as inputs, networks of actors involved, objectives sought, and actions proposed. We find that debates at the intersection of climate and biodiversity were overwhelmingly framed in relation to, or through the lens of carbon. Through a discussion of four core Climate-Motivated Responses, we illustrate how “carbon-logic”, and the initiatives that it generates, simultaneously creates threats to the objectives sought by some actors, and opportunities for the objectives sought by others. We situate our observations in the context of some of the historical dilemmas that have faced conservation, and discuss this current moment in the dynamic trajectory of conservation governance: a moment when decisions about conserving biodiversity are becoming entangled with carbon-logic and the market. In this case, while some actors seek opportunities for biodiversity ends by riding the coattails of the climate agenda, the threats of doing so may undermine the biological and social objectives of the CBD convention itself.     

Climate action for food security in South Asia? Analyzing the role of agriculture in nationally determined contributions to the Paris agreement

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement propose a country’s contribution to global mitigation efforts and domestic adaptation initiatives. This paper provides a systematic analysis of NDCs submitted by South Asian nations, in order to assess how far their commitments might deliver meaningful contributions to the global 2°C target and to sustainable broad-based adaptation benefits. Though agriculture-related emissions are prominent in emission profiles of South Asian countries, their emission reduction commitments are less likely to include agriculture, partly because of a concern over food security. We find that income-enhancing mitigation technologies that do not jeopardize food security may significantly augment the region’s mitigation potential. In the case of adaptation, analysis shows that the greatest effort will be directed towards protecting the cornerstones of the ‘green revolution’ for ensuring food security. Development of efficient and climate-resilient agricultural value chains and integrated farming bodies will be important to ensuring adaptation investment. Potentially useful models of landscape level climate resilience actions and ecosystem-based adaptation are also presented, along with estimates of the aggregate costs of agricultural adaptation. Countries in the region propose different mixes of domestic and foreign, and public and private, adaptation finance to meet the substantial gaps.

Key policy insights

• Though substantial potential for mitigation of agricultural emissions exists in South Asia, governments in the region do not commit to agricultural emissions reductions in their NDCs.

• Large-scale adoption of income-enhancing technologies is the key to realizing agricultural mitigation potential in South Asia, whilst maintaining food security.

• Increasing resilience and profitability through structural changes, value chain interventions, and landscape-level actions may provide strong options to build adaptive capacity and enhance food security.

• Both private finance (autonomous adaptation) and international financial transfers will be required to close the substantial adaptation finance gap

     

The nexus approach to water–energy–food security: an option for adaptation to climate change

Developing countries face a difficult challenge in meeting the growing demands for food, water, and energy, which is further compounded by climate change. Effective adaptation to change requires the efficient use of land, water, energy, and other vital resources, and coordinated efforts to minimize trade-offs and maximize synergies. However, as in many developing countries, the policy process in South Asia generally follows a sectoral approach that does not take into account the interconnections and interdependence among the three sectors. Although the concept of a water–energy–food nexus is gaining currency, and adaptation to climate change has become an urgent need, little effort has been made so far to understand the linkages between the nexus perspective and adaptation to climate change. Using the Hindu Kush Himalayan region as an example, this article seeks to increase understanding of the interlinkages in the water, energy, and food nexus, explains why it is important to consider this nexus in the context of adaptation responses, and argues that focusing on trade-offs and synergies using a nexus approach could facilitate greater climate change adaptation and help ensure food, water, and energy security by enhancing resource use efficiency and encouraging greater policy coherence. It concludes that a nexus-based adaption approach – which integrates a nexus perspective into climate change adaptation plans and an adaptation perspective into development plans – is crucial for effective adaptation. The article provides a conceptual framework for considering the nexus approach in relation to climate change adaptation, discusses the potential synergies, trade-offs, and offers a broader framework for making adaptation responses more effective.

Policy relevance

This article draws attention to the importance of the interlinkages in the water, energy, and food nexus, and the implications for sustainable development and adaptation. The potential synergies and complementarities among the sectors should be used to guide formulation of effective adaptation options. The issues highlight the need for a shift in policy approaches from a sectoral focus, which can result in competing and counterproductive actions, to an integrated approach with policy coherence among the sectors that uses knowledge of the interlinkages to maximize gain, optimize trade-offs, and avoid negative impacts.     

Sources of information for farmers’ adaptation practices in Canada’s Prairie agro-ecosystem

Successful adaptation assumes the availability of appropriate information for groups potentially impacted by climate change. This research examines information available to help farmers in the Canadian Prairies to adapt, with focus on information related to soil and water conservation practices, such as preserving wetlands and maintaining shelterbelts and groundcover, considered particularly important for this region. Results of 28 semi-structured interviews carried out with producers in two Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba, revealed that information regarding soil and water conservation practices comes from a variety of sources. These included industry, government, producer and conservation organizations, social sources of information and personal experience, and media. Producers were more open to new practices when they could learn them through observation, trials, and two-way dialogue. There appears to be a general lack of producer organization involvement, and dearth of government information, direction, and coordination for climate change adaptation. Information from government and producer organizations can be important for the co-production of knowledge that can lead to successful adaptation.     

Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling...     

Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective

Food security in China, the world’s most populous country, has long been a concern because of the challenges of population growth, water shortages, and loss of cropland through urbanization, soil degradation, and climate change. Here, we present an integrated analysis of China’s food demand and supply under IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 in 2020, 2050, and 2080, based on official statistics and future development scenarios. Our analysis accounts for future socioeconomic, technological, and resource developments, as well the impact of climate change. We present a covariant relationship between changes in cereal productivity due to climate change and the cereal harvest area required to satisfy China’s food demand. We also estimated the effects of changing harvested areas on the productivity required to satisfy the food demand; of productivity changes due to climate change on the harvest area required to satisfy food demand; and of productivity and land use changes on the population at risk of undernutrition. China could be able to feed herself without disturbing the global food market in the twenty-first century, but whether the government will choose self-sufficiency or increased food imports may depend on the cost of change, which remains unknown.     

Assessment of thermal bioclimate and tourism climate potential for central Europe—the example of Luxembourg

Tourism destinations often require information about climate to assess their climate potential. This can be performed in terms of mean conditions of relevant climatological parameters. For a user-friendly analysis and visualization of climate data relevant for tourism application in Luxembourg, information is prepared based on the facets of climate in tourism. Information on thermal comfort/stress conditions as well as aesthetical and physical parameters is considered. In the present study, relevant and sensible factors were identified and presented. Therefore, physiologically equivalent temperature, precipitation patterns and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme are applied. In addition, extreme events relevant for heat stress are analysed based on existing data sets (i.e. heat waves of 2010). Expected climatic conditions for the future are investigated using the projections of two different regional climate models. The results concerning climate change conditions reveal increasing heat stress and sultriness but decreasing cold stress. This information is the basis for an adequate assessment to provide relevant information for different environmental planning issues as well as for the growing tourism sector of Luxembourg.     

Virtual water ‘flows’ of the Nile Basin, 1998–2004: A first approximation and implications for water security

This paper interprets an initial approximation of the ‘trade’ in virtual water of Nile Basin states in terms of national water security. The virtual water content (on the basis of weight) of select recorded crop and livestock trade between 1998 and 2004 is provided, and analysed for each state separately, for the Southern Nile and Eastern Nile states as groups, and for the basin states as a whole. To the extent that the datasets allow, the distinction between rainfed and irrigated production is maintained. During the period under study, Nile Basin states ‘exported’ about 14,000 Mm³ of primarily rainfed-derived virtual water outside of the basin annually and ‘imported’ roughly 41,000 Mm³/y. The ‘imports’ are considered to have played a key role in filling the freshwater deficits of Egypt and Sudan, and represent a third of the flow of the Nile River itself. Analysis of food trade within the basin shows that the equivalent of small rivers of water used to raise coffee and tea ‘flow’ from the highlands around Lake Victoria to Egypt and Sudan. Because the bulk of these ‘flows’ derive from rainfed agriculture, the virtual water ‘traded’ annually between the Nile Basin states is not considered to represent a significant demand on the water resources of the basin, nor to significantly remedy the freshwater deficits of the arid basin states. The importance of soil water and rainfed farming is in improving water security is highlighted. The limitations and merits of the inter-state basin-wide approach are also discussed. By highlighting the magnitude of water leaving and entering states in its virtual form, the approach obliges policy-makers to think beyond the basin and reconsider the concept of water security within broader political, environmental, social and economic forces.     

Resilience for disaster risk management in a changing climate: Practitioners’ frames and practices

There is a growing use of resilience ideas within the disaster risk management literature and policy domain. However, few empirical studies have focused on how resilience ideas are conceptualized by practitioners, as they implement them in practice. Using Hajer's ‘social-interactive discourse theory’ this research contributes to the understanding of how practitioners frame, construct and make sense of resilience ideas in the context of changes in institutional arrangements for disaster risk management that explicitly include the resilience approach and climate change considerations. The case study involved the roll out of the Natural Disaster Resilience Program in Queensland, Australia, and the study involved three sites in Queensland. The methods used were observation of different activities and the physical sites, revision of documents related to the Natural Disaster Resilience Program and in-depth semi-structured interviews with key informants, all practitioners who had direct interaction with the program. The research findings show that practitioners construct the meaning of disaster resilience differently, and these are embedded in diverse storylines. Within these storylines, practitioners gave different interpretations and emphasis to the seven discourse categories that characterized their resilience discourse. Self-reliance emerged as one of the paramount discourse categories but we argue that caution needs to be used when promoting values of self-reliance. If the policy impetus is a focus on learning, research findings indicate it is also pertinent to move from experiential learning toward social learning. The results presented in this study provide helpful insights to inform policy design and implementation of resilience ideas in disaster risk management and climate change, and to inform theory.     

Use of the Köppen–Trewartha climate classification to evaluate climatic refugia in statistically derived ecoregions for the People’s Republic of China

Changes in climate as projected by state-of-the-art climate models are likely to result in novel combinations of climate and topo-edaphic factors that will have substantial impacts on the distribution and persistence of natural vegetation and animal species. We have used multivariate techniques to quantify some of these changes; the method employed was the Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) algorithm. We used the MSTC to quantitatively define ecoregions for the People’s Republic of China for historical and projected future climates. Using the Köppen–Trewartha classification system we were able to quantify some of the temperature and precipitation relationships of the ecoregions. We then tested the hypothesis that impacts to environments will be lower for ecoregions that retain their approximate geographic locations. Our results showed that climate in 2050, as projected from anthropogenic forcings using the Hadley Centre HadCM3 general circulation model, were sufficient to create novel environmental conditions even where ecoregions remained spatially stable; cluster number was found to be of paramount importance in detecting novelty. Continental-scale analyses are generally able to locate potentially static ecoregions but they may be insufficient to define the position of those reserves at a grid cell-by-grid cell basis.     

Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change—— Progress and Challenges

The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps： （1） use of general circulation models （GCMs） to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases, （2） use of downscaling techniques （both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods） for ＂downscaling＂ the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and （3） use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales. Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.     

A social–ecological systems analysis of impediments to delivery of the Aichi 2020 Targets and potentially more effective pathways to the conservation of biodiversity

The Aichi 2020 Targets, under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), aim to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2020, in order to ensure that ecosystems continue to provide essential services. Here we apply a social–ecological systems analysis to provide insight into the diverse system interactions that pose impediments to delivery of the Aichi Targets. We applied an analytical framework of pair-wise exchanges along six axes between the social, economic, environmental and political loci of the global social–ecological system. The analysis identified that many impediments result from partial decoupling in the system through phenomena including delayed feedbacks and insufficient information flows. It suggests 15 of the Aichi Targets are unlikely to be delivered; 3 are likely to be delivered in part; and 2 in full. We considered how interventions at leverage points may overcome the impediments, and compared these to actions included within the Implementation Decision for the Aichi Targets, to find gaps. These new leverage points to fill identified gaps involve many aspects of system re-coupling: co-production of knowledge and more equitable food systems governance (environmental–social axis); support for social change movements (social–political axis); an appropriate financial target for biodiversity conservation investment, with a clear means of implementation such as a currency transaction tax (economic–political axis); and co-governance of natural resources (environmental–political axis). The recently released Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 shows that 18 of the 20 Aichi Targets are tracking in accordance with our analysis; and that current efforts are unlikely to result in an improvement in the base state of biodiversity by 2020, confirming some of our results. We argue that attention to the interactions within, and the partial decoupling of, the global social–ecological system provides new insights, and is worthy of further attention both for delivery of the Aichi Targets and for guiding longer term actions for the conservation of biodiversity.     

What could go wrong with cooking? Exploring vulnerability at the water,energy and food Nexus in Kampala through a social practices lens.

Sub-Saharan African cities like Kampala face challenges with rapid urbanization and impacts of climate change. These challenges have exacerbated the struggle to provide adequate infrastructural and socio-ecological services to Kampala's growing poor. Based on a social practices perspective, this paper presents a study of emergent vulnerabilities at the urban Nexus of water, energy and food (WEF) in the informal settlements of Bwaise and Kanyogoga. We employ methods of observation, interviews, focus group discussions and a vision-building workshop to explore the growing vulnerabilities of poor households as they daily navigate deteriorating water quality, rising energy prices and food insecurity. Results indicate that most household-level vulnerabilities relate to energy poverty. Households scale back on water treatment practices such as boiling and the cooking of highly-nutritious yet energy-demanding foods such as beans in efforts to conserve charcoal. Emergent practices of everyday resilience-building include the use of biomass briquettes as an alternative to solid charcoal as well as social networks and capital which allow households to borrow food and energy. We suggest the notion of ‘precarious consumption’ as a tool for understanding emergent everyday vulnerabilities in relation to the urban WEF Nexus service provision and resilience policy-making in cities of the Global South.     

Influences of the Clearness Index on UV Solar Radiation for Two Locations in the Tibetan Plateau——Lhasa and Haibei

Ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation has a significant influence on human health, the environment and climate. A series of measurements, including UV radiation (290-400 nm) and global solar radiation (Rs), were continuously recorded from August 2004 at the Lhasa and Haibei sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Both observation sites' altitudes are above 3000 m and have similar meteorological conditions. The data from 2005-2006 was used to identify the varying characteristics of UV radiation. It's relation to the clearness index Ks, the relative optical mass mr, and Rs were established. The annual mean values of total daily UV radiation are 0.92 and 0.67 MJ m-2 at Lhasa and Haibei, respectively. The UV radiation in Lhasa represented 4.6% of the global solar radiation while in Haibei this percentage was 4.2%. In the case of clear days (Ks > 0.8), these percentages ranged between 4.0% and 4.5% in Lhasa and between 5.1% and 5.5% in Haibei. In the case of cloudy days (Ks < 0.4), these percentages ranged from 4.4% to 6.8% in Lhasa and from 5.1% to 5.5% in Haibei. The maximum values of UV radiation for each relative optical mass diminished exponentially with mr. Thus, for Lhasa and Haibei, UV=46.25m-r 1.29, and UV=51.76m-r 1.42, respectively. The results of this study can be used to obtain more UV radiation data for the study of UV climate characteristics, the effects of UV on ecological processes and the feedback of the thinning of the stratospheric ozone, from more routine measurements Rs data.     

Future frost risks in the Tohoku region of Japan under a warming climate—interpretation of regional diversity in terms of seasonal warming

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - We investigated future frost risks in the Tohoku Region of Japan under climate change. We focused on the processes governing regional variations in the future...     

Comparison of Satellite and Ship Observations for Total Cloud Amount

The data series of monthly clouldiness over global ocean from COADS was compared with that of from satellite Nimbus-7 during April 1979 to March 1985. The correspondence between them is good. Both the two methods of observation can provide useful information of the distribution of cloudiness and the two data sets can be mutually complementary.