Seismic hazard assessment of Western Coastal Province of Saudi Arabia:deterministic approach

Seismic hazard assessment is carried out by utilizing deterministic approach to evaluate the maximum expected earthquake ground motions along the Western Coastal Province of Saudi Arabia. The analysis is accomplished by incorporating seismotectonic source model,determination of earthquake magnitude(Mmax), set of appropriate ground motion predictive equations(GMPE), and logic tree sequence. The logic tree sequence is built up to assign weight to ground motion scaling relationships. Contour maps of ground acceleration are generated at different spectral periods. These maps show that the largest ground motion values are emerged in northern and southern regions of the western coastal province in Saudi Arabia in comparison with the central region.     

Seismic hazard assessment for the Itoiz dam site (Western Pyrenees,Spain)

This work summarises the seismic hazard analysis performed for the complete characterisation of strong ground-motion at the site of the Itoiz dam (Western Pyrenees, Spain). The hazard analysis includes the compilation of a composite catalogue from French and Spanish agencies, the definition of an original hybrid seismogenic source model (including zones and major faults) and the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Hazard results are provided as hazard curves and acceleration response spectra on rock for the 1000- and 5000-year return periods, which correspond respectively to the operating basis earthquake (OBE) and safety evaluation earthquake (SEE). The impact of truncating GMPEs at a number of standard deviations (epsilon) has been found not critical here for the return periods targeted. Subsequently, an analysis of the contribution of each source to total hazard and a hazard disaggregation analysis are performed in order to establish the earthquake-source parameters for both the OBE and SEE scenarios consistently with the seismotectonics of the region. The European Strong Motion database is then searched and a selection of records is proposed for each of the scenarios. Our results suggest that seismic hazard in the region is underestimated by the official Spanish seismic hazard map included in the current version of the code (NCSE-02), which is the reference document for the definition of seismic actions for dam projects in the whole Pyrenees.     

Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions. Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori). An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period).     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Active faulting offshore SE Spain (Alboran Sea): Implications for earthquake hazard assessment in the Southern Iberian Margin

The southern margin of the Iberian Peninsula hosts the convergent boundary between the European and African Plates. The area is characterised by low to moderate magnitude shallow earthquakes, although large historical events have also occurred. In order to determine the possible sources of these events, we recently acquired swath-bathymetry, TOBI sidescan sonar and high-resolution seismic data on the Almería Margin (Eastern Alboran Sea). The new dataset reveals the offshore continuation of the NE–SW trending Carboneras Fault, a master fault in the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, and its associated structures (N150 and NS faults). These structures are active since they cut the Late Quaternary sedimentary units. The submarine Carboneras Fault zone is 100 km long, 5–10 km wide, and is divided into two N045 and N060 segments separated by an underlapping restraining stepover. Geomorphic features typically found in subaerial strike-slip faults, such as deflected drainage, water gaps, shutter ridges, pressure ridges and “en echelon” folds suggest a strike-slip motion combined with a vertical component along the submarine Carboneras Fault. Considering the NNW–SSE regional shortening axis, a left-lateral movement is deduced for the Carboneras Fault, whereas right-lateral and normal components are suggested for the associated N150 and NS faults, respectively. The offshore portion of this fault is at least twice as long as its onshore portion and together they constitute one of the longest structures in the southeastern Iberian Margin. Despite the fact that present day seismicity in the Almería margin seems to be associated with the N150 to NS faults, the Carboneras Fault is a potential source of large magnitude (M_w ∼7.2) events. Hence, the Carboneras Fault zone could pose a significant earthquake and tsunami hazard to the coasts of Spain and North Africa, and should therefore be considered in any hazard re-evaluation.     

Site-specific response spectra from the combination of microzonation with probabilistic seismic hazard assessment—An example for the Cologne (Germany) area

Seismic noise was measured at some 20 sites in the Cologne area (Germany) aligned nearly perpendicular to a graben structure. The H/V spectral noise ratio for each site was used to derive realistic S-wave velocity profiles down to the bedrock by means of a genetic algorithm inversion. Numerical simulations were performed for different combinations of source and propagation path parameters: focal depth, epicentral distance, attenuation and fault mechanism. Synthetic seismograms were produced and converted to Fourier and response spectra. Finally, the site-specific values from response spectral ratios, with their uncertainties, were used to modify attenuation functions entering the logic-tree algorithm of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The site-specific response spectra show the significance of taking into account the local S-wave velocity structure in PSHA.     

Quantitative petrogenetic constraints on the Pliocene alkali basaltic volcanism of the SE Spain Volcanic Province

Alkali basalts of Pliocene age are the last episode of volcanism in the SE Spain Volcanic Province, postdating a complex series of Miocene calc-alkaline to ultrapotassic rocks. This volcanism is represented by small outcrops and vents NW of Cartagena that has been interpreted as a volcanic episode similar to the contemporaneous monogenetic alkaline basaltic volcanism of the Iberian Peninsula and Western/Central Europe. However, their geochemical signature is characterised by relatively higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios as well as distinct trace element anomalies which, at different scale, are only found in the spatially related calc-alkaline to ultrapotassic volcanism. Quantitative modelling of these data demonstrate that the geochemical signature of the Pliocene alkali basalts of Cartagena can be explained by the interaction between primitive melts generated from a sublithospheric mantle source similar to that identified for other volcanic regions of Spain, and liquids derived from the overlying lithospheric mantle. This interaction implies that the alkali basalts show some geochemical features only observed in mantle lithosphere-derived melts (e.g. Sr isotope enrichment and Th–U–Pb positive anomalies), while retaining an overall geochemical signature similar to other Iberian basalts (e.g. Rb–K negative anomalies). This model also implies that beneath the SEVP, enriched (metasomatized) portions were still present within the lithospheric mantle after the Miocene magmatic episodes.     

Physico-chemical evolution of groundwater in tectonically active areas. Application to the Leana hot spring (Murcia Region,SE Spain)

Seismic events can affect the physico-chemical characteristics of groundwater. These anomalies are of a pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic nature and correspond to pulse variations, sudden increases and decreases without return to initial values and upward or downward changes in trend. Continuous and in situ conductivity and temperature monitoring and periodic water sampling at a hot spring associated with neotectonic activity are of great interest for establishing predictive methods. This method is limited to the seismic activity affecting the fracturing system with which the hot spring is associated. The Region of Murcia and surroundings (southeast Spain) was selected as the study area for exploring the nature of these influences on groundwater. A hot spring in the Leana spa (Murcia) was equipped and monitored during the period 2006–2008, allowing for the in situ determination of conductivity and temperature as well as of major and minor constituents at the laboratory. Due to its proximity and related with fault network, we suggest that 86 % of earthquakes located between 0 and 10 km may affect in situ parameters of groundwater, and 75 % may affect laboratory determinations. This percentage drops in more distant zones. Of all earthquakes that seem to influence groundwater, 55 % of the in situ parameter anomalies and 53 % of laboratory were of a pre-seismic nature.     

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.     

Seismic properties of lower crustal xenoliths from El Hoyazo (SE Spain): Experimental evidence up to partial melting

Seismic techniques provide unique tools to investigate the structure and, in combination with petrological, geochemical and petrophysical study, the composition of the lower crust. Controversies can be solved with comparative study of metamorphic terrains or xenoliths that occur adjacent to areas where seismic refraction/reflection data are available. Xenoliths represent a direct sampling of the inaccessible lower crust at the time of the volcanism, whilst exposed crustal sections can only be used as analogue of present day lower crust.The present study is focused on the measurements of compressional wave velocities up to conditions exceeding the beginning of melting (950 °C at 500 MPa confining pressure) on three garnet–biotite–sillimanite metapelitic xenoliths recovered from the Neogene dacites of El Hoyazo (SE Spain). They preserve widespread interstitial rhyolitic glass as evidence of primary melt extraction and represent the best example of partially molten lower crust in the Alborán Domain. The influence of glass on Vp is primarily reflected by anomalous positive dVp/dT while heating with velocity increasing at 500 MPa from 4.98 to 5.50 km s^− 1 at room temperature to 5.85–6.79 km s^− 1 at 650–700 °C. This corresponds to the glass transition where all the grain boundaries and most of the pores within the glass are closed. After this point, the velocity decreases to 6.2–6.5 km s^− 1 at 950 °C where re-melting of the glass is achieved and additional partial melt produced. On cooling, the behavior is normal with negative dVp/dT. After the thermal treatment velocities are 30% higher (6.07–7.21 km s^− 1) and reveal that in the presence of intergranular melt velocity measurements at room temperature cannot be extrapolated to high temperatures.P-waves measured at melting conditions are in agreement with deep seismic refraction data and tomography in the area and corroborate the hypothesis that partial melts are actually present in Alborán lower crust.     

A new seismic hazard assessment in the region of Andalusia (Southern Spain)

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Andalusia (Southern Spain) in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA, and spectral accelerations, SA(T), is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA, making use of Intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard was here calculated in terms of magnitude, using published spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we considered different ground-motion models for the Atlantic sources, since the attenuation of those motions seems to be slower, as evidenced in the case of the extensive macroseismic areas of earthquakes like those occurred in the years 1755, 1969 and 2007. A comprehensive review of the seismic catalogue and of the seismogenic models proposed for the region was carried out, including those for Northern Africa, which is part of the influence area. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for six different seismic source zonings and five different ground-motion attenuation relationships. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA (0.2 s) and SA (1 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) maps, for the 475-year return period were first obtained in rock sites. A geotechnical classification and amplification factors were proposed and new hazard maps including local effects were represented, showing PGA values ranging from 24 to 370 cm/s² for the whole Andalusian territory, with the highest expected values (PGA > 300 cm/s²) in some parts of the Granada Province and in the town of Vélez Málaga. Lowest values (PGA < 50 cm/s²) correspond to some towns of the Huelva and Córdoba provinces. The inclusion of soil effects provides a more detailed picture of the actual hazard the region is subjected to.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Magnetic gradient map of the mine tailings in Portman Bay (Murcia,Spain) and its contribution to the understanding of the bay infilling process

The present study is a pilot magnetic gradient survey inserted in a set of geological and geophysical works that are planned to understand the infilling process of the Portman Bay (Murcia, Spain).In a period of 33 years (from 1957 until 1990) the Portman Bay has been silted up with mine tailings. This mining waste, after being discharged into the sea, was transported by littoral currents which sorted it and concentrated the densest mineral fractions (mainly magnetite and other iron oxides). In this sedimentary context, the magnetic gradient map obtained did not detect any massive accumulation of magnetic minerals, but rather a regular distribution following parallel-banded structures in the successive contours of the bay. It has been observed that one of these magnetic bands perfectly superimposes on the ancient coastline visible in aerial photo of 1972, interpreting that this coincidence is explained by the fact that the magnetite was concentrated along the sandy ridges, oriented according to the refraction of the littoral currents.In this document we analyse the magnetic gradient map obtained in a restricted sector of the Portman Bay. This sector covers an area of 2 ha and it was chosen as a first test. The significant results suggest the suitability of this method to be conducted to the whole bay. The main objective of this study is to show the usefulness of magnetic gradient method to obtain a paleogeographic reconstruction of the infilling process of this bay.     

Seismic hazard assessment in the megacity of Blida (Algeria) and its surrounding regions using parametric-historic procedure

The region of Blida is characterized by a relatively high seismic activity, pointed especially during the past two centuries. Indeed, it experienced a significant number of destructive earthquakes such as the earthquakes of March 2, 1825 and January 2, 1867, with intensity of X and IX, respectively. This study aims to investigate potential seismic hazard in Blida city and its surrounding regions. For this purpose, a typical seismic catalog was compiled using historical macroseismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years, and the recent instrumental seismicity dating back to 1900. The parametric-historic procedure introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) was applied to assess seismic hazard in the study region. It is adapted to deal with incomplete catalogs and does not use any subjective delineation of active seismic zones. Because of the lack of recorded strong motion data, three ground prediction models have been considered, as they seem the most adapted to the seismicity of the study region. Results are presented as peak ground acceleration (PGA) seismic hazard maps, showing expected peak accelerations with 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year period. As the most significant result, hot spot regions with high PGA values are mapped. For example, a PGA of 0.44 g has been found in a small geographical area centered on Blida city.     

Lava-flow hazard on the SE flank of Mt. Etna (Southern Italy)

A method for mapping lava-flow hazard on the SE flank of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Southern Italy) by applying the Cellular Automata model SCIARA_-fv is described, together with employed techniques of calibration and validation through a parallel Genetic Algorithm. The study area is partly urbanised; it has repeatedly been affected by lava flows from flank eruptions in historical time, and shows evidence of a dominant SSE-trending fracture system. Moreover, a dormant deep-seated gravitational deformation, associated with a larger volcano-tectonic phenomenon, affects the whole south-eastern flank of the volcano.     

Identification of potential subsidence related to pumping in the Almería basin (SE Spain)

Ground subsidence of detrital deposits in the Almería basin (SE Spain) was studied using the remote sensing technique of Differential Interferometry SAR (DInSAR). This basin is one of the most arid in Europe, receiving an average rainfall of 250 mm per year. Over the last 60 years the region has experienced an enormous agricultural and urban expansion, whose water demand has been largely supplied from groundwater, leading to the current situation of overexploitation of water resources. This paper outlines the likely relationship between groundwater abstraction and subsidence. To this end, 34 ERS and Envisat images, taken between 2003 and 2009, were analysed to estimate ground surface deformations, and hence, compared with water table variations measured in a number of piezometers in the basin. The analysis shows a clear parallelism between the variations in piezometric level and deformation of the ground surface. In addition, the zones of greatest subsidence coincide with those areas where groundwater abstractions are concentrated. Subsidence over the examined period varies from 10 to 30 mm, with extreme values as high as 50 mm, which translates to a rate of between 1·7 and 5 mm/year, reaching maximum rates of 8 mm/year at some points. Given such subsidence rates, damage to urban infrastructures are, for the moment, incipient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Medium-term assessment of the effects of the Prestige oil spill on estuarine benthic communities in Cantabria (Northern Spain, Bay of Biscay)

A specific monitoring program was implemented in the estuaries of Cantabria (northern Spain) in order to assess the medium-term effects (2003-2005) of the Prestige oil spill (POS) on benthic macroinvertebrate communities. A control-impact design was adopted, examining four unaffected and five oil-affected estuaries. High mortalities and significant differences in overall richness and diversity between the control and impacted estuaries were not detected. Some changes in the temporal evolution of species abundance were observed for some key species, but these could not be related to the spillage event. It was not possible to ensure that low magnitude effects had not occurred, due to the high range of natural variability of benthic communities, the confounding effects of other contamination sources and the absence of previous reference conditions.     

Seismic hazard in southern Calabria (Italy) based on the analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog

The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active faults inferred by aeromagnetism in southern Calabria has produced a synthetic catalog lasting 100 ky including more than 18,000 earthquakes of magnitude ≥?4.0. This catalog exhibits temporal, spatial and magnitude features, which resemble those of the observed seismicity. As an example of the potential use of synthetic catalogs, a map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a given exceedance probability on the territory under investigation has been produced by means of a simple attenuation law applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog. This map was compared with the existing hazard map that is presently used in the national seismic building regulations. The comparison supports a strong similarity of our results with the values given in the present Italian seismic building code, despite the latter being based on a different methodology. The same similarity cannot be recognized for the comparison of our present study with the results obtained from a previous study based on our same methodology but with a different geological model.     

Ecological status assessment in the lower Eo estuary (Spain). The challenge of habitat heterogeneity integration: a benthic perspective

The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires evaluation of the ecological status (ES) of benthic communities in coastal and transitional water systems, and the intercalibration of assessment methodologies therefore becomes a research challenge. Our aim was to test the suitability of applying the M-AMBI index to assess the status of the Eo estuary (northern coast of Spain). Our results showed that M-AMBI was influenced by the natural variability of benthic communities, and presented an apparent dependence on habitat characteristics. Consequently, the definition of homogeneous areas in transitional water systems should be based on the salinity gradient combined with other factors. To achieve an accurate ES assessment, habitat-specific reference conditions should then be defined prior to the application of M-AMBI; this necessitates dividing an estuary into several sections, which may be classified as different ESs. From this perspective, a novel approach to integrate habitat heterogeneity in a global ES assessment was tested.     

Terrestrial photogrammetric techniques applied to the control of a parabolic dune in the Liencres dune system,Cantabria (Spain)

The spatial–temporal variations of a dune system can be determined by using diverse ‘geomatic’ methodologies: geodesy, global positioning system (GPS) and photogrammetry. In the case of the Liencres dune system, a study will be carried out using the ‘close‐range’ photogrammetry technique and the topography technique (total station and GPS). In order to determine the dynamic of the dune system it is necessary to repeat the process of study after a specific interval of time. For this reason, three dimensional data should be available in two different time periods, between which the displacement of the object of analysis (the front portion of the dune) will be significant enough to evaluate its magnitude. This work analyses the viability of photogrammetry for the determination of the spatial–temporal changes of a coastal parabolic dune. Two factors have been analysed: first, the comparison of the photogrammetric results with the results obtained from topographic methods (total station and GPS), and second, the quantification of the displacement of the dune system. The analysis of the correspondence between the movement of different parts of the dune and the influence of the intensity and direction of the prevailing wind in the area is also desired. The dune advanced 12·15 ± 0·06 m (an average of 8·5 m/yr), and the partial implications for the dynamic of human modified processes on the natural park have been established. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.