空间微观模拟方法及在城市研究中的应用

基于活动主体的城市系统微观模拟可能在未来城市研究中发挥重要作用,但其通常受到微观个体数据稀缺的限制。空间微观模拟方法（spatial microsimulation）主要基于家庭、个人等微观分析单元,通过整合不同层面的数据源,如宏观汇总层面的人口普查统计表以及微观层面的家庭活动日志调查等,合成大样本微观个体数据集,可以在精细化空间尺度上对微观个体行为进行模拟研究。该方法在城市系统微观模拟、空间分析以及政策评估等方面具有一定优势,在西方国家城市研究中的应用逐渐增多,但在国内较为缺乏。本文尝试对空间微观模拟方法的起源、三种核心算法,包括条件概率（conditional probability） 、确定性加权（deterministic reweighting）以及模拟退火（simulated annealing）进行介绍,并从国际层面综述该方法在城市研究,如收入与贫困、交通出行、健康等领域中的应用,为我国相关研究的开展提供借鉴。     

基于六普数据的中国流动人口住房状况的空间格局

住房是流动人口融入城市、实现市民化过程中必须解决的关键问题。基于2010 年第六次人口普查数据,采用住房拥有率、租住房率、住房面积指数、住房不受干扰指数、住房质量指数和住房费用指数6 个指标考察流动人口的住房状况,并综合运用数理统计、空间自相关和系统聚类法揭示流动人口住房状况的属性特征、空间分布与集聚类型。研究发现,与城镇常住人口相比,流动人口的住房状况较差。从空间分布看,流动人口住房状况的各项指标具有显著的空间正相关,在空间分布上不仅存在集聚现象,而且有明显的集聚中心。研究结果还表明,流动人口住房条件综合状况可划分为较好、中等、中等偏下、较差4 级类型区,在全国尺度上的空间分布除个别类型外具有团块聚合的结构特征。在考虑社会公平的前提下,应分类解决不同类型区域流动人口的住房问题。     

Guest editorial: the 2001 UK census: remarkable resource or bygone legacy of the 'pencil and paper era'?

National censuses are expensive. They are conducted infrequently. They collect information that some feel infringes their human rights, and people are required by law to complete them. The outputs are not perfect, and in some situations may be misleading. Some suggest that censuses hark back to a period when regularly collected administrative data were not available. These are some of the views held about national censuses. Why, then, would others argue that they are an essential resource? In this paper, we consider some of the pros and cons of conducting national censuses, before introducing a series of papers that draw on early data available from the 2001 UK census. We argue that these papers, and the wealth of research that will be conducted in the future with 2001 census data, make a strong case for supporting the compulsory collection of personal information about the 'entire' population every ten years.     

基于贫困分级的云南省城乡收入差距时空演化与影响因素研究

云南是中国贫困县最多的山区省份,同时也是中国城乡收入差距长期居高不下的典型省份.针对当前研究中未能深入探讨城乡收入差距与各地贫困程度关联性、未能深入探讨各影响因素空间相关性、忽视关键地理因素对城乡收入差距影响等问题和不足,本文将各县按照贫困程度的差异划分为4个类别,使用云南省129个县(市)2010-2018年产业、社...     

中国县域城镇化发展格局及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据

利用2000 和2010 年中国人口普查分县数据,借助空间分析方法揭示近期中国常住人口城镇化格局特征及其动态变化,结合多元回归模型探讨城镇化空间分异的主要影响因素,基于主成分分析和聚类分析进行中国城镇化发展类型区划分。结果表明：① 2000-2010 年,中国常住人口城镇化率不断提高,年均增加1.3 个百分点,32%的县域城镇化水平年均增长超过1.5 个百分点;② 中国城镇化发展存在区域差异性和“低快高慢”的收敛性,东部、东北、中部、西部四大区域城镇化率年均分别增加1.4、0.5、1.4 和1.3 个百分点;③ 60%的中国县域城镇化发展集中在低城镇化率—高增长率、低城镇化率—中高增长率和低城镇化率—中增长率三种类型,且以中、西部地区分布最为密集;④ 中国县域城镇化格局基本未变,仍以珠三角、长三角、京津冀三大增长极的城镇化发展较为突出,东部地区及内陆省会城市周边的城镇化水平也相对较高;⑤ 经济发展水平、产业结构特征、人力资本状况、人口集聚能力、公共服务水平、地理区位特征对县域城镇化空间分异具有显著而稳健的影响;⑥ 中国城镇化格局可分为具有明显区类一致性和区外异质性的5 大类、20 个区域。新时期的城镇化发展应凸显地域功能、提升承载能力、夯实产业基础、强调节约集约。     

基于乡村人口转移和农村道路建设的空间贫困破解机理及其对策研究——以贵州省为例

贫困与地理环境之间交互耦合形成了空间贫困陷阱,本文在对贵州50个国家级贫困县乡村人口转移减贫效应和松桃、威宁、望谟3个典型县域贫困村贫困发生率与农村道路可达性指数空间耦合关系进行实证研究基础上,阐释了破解空间贫困的作用机理,并构建相应政策体系。结果表明：① 贵州国家级贫困县乡村户籍人口向县内城镇转移和县外转移具有显著的减贫效应,但县内城镇转移比县外转移减贫效应的作用力更大。② 松桃县、望谟县极度贫困、可达性较差型和深度贫困、可达性较差型贫困村所占比例在15%左右,威宁为10%左右,对该类型贫困村实施整村易地搬迁和村庄撤并;对具有自然历史文化特色资源的深度贫困、可达性中等型和一般贫困、可达性中等型贫困村应进一步扩展道路宽度,打通断头路,形成网络,增强通行能力。③ 应坚持以县城为中心的就地城镇化和发达地区中心城市、省会城市等异地城镇化并重,加强对转移劳动人口的技能培训,提升其城镇生存能力。继续加大对具有自然历史文化特色资源的保护类村庄的“通村、通组、通户”道路拓宽、硬化等措施,逐步完善自来水、宽带等较为薄弱的基础设施投入力度,推进贫困村基本公共服务均等化;通过发展山区“绿水青山”内生性和外生性产业,引导贫困人口提升自我发展能力。     

基于“七普”的“胡焕庸线”两侧人口集疏新态势及影响因素

随着新型城镇化建设的推进,“胡焕庸线”两侧人口发展出现了新态势。本文基于第七次人口普查数据,依据地级尺度划定的“准胡焕庸线”,分析2010—2020年“胡焕庸线”两侧人口集疏模式的新特征,并探讨影响因素。研究表明：① “胡焕庸线”依然稳定,2020年东南半壁与西北半壁的人口比为93.5∶6.5;② 西北半壁人口份额仍然微增,但是增幅较之前明显下降; ③ 2010—2020年西北半壁人口集中化指数由降转增,西北半壁和东南半壁的人口分布集中化程度均有所提升;④ 东南半壁人口集疏分化不断强化,2010—2020年人口负增长区的面积占比已达54.22%,超过人口正增长区;西北半壁人口集疏的马太效应特征愈发明显,人口负增长区占比也已升至26.15%;⑤ 省会首府人口增长优势愈发突出,且西北半壁比东南半壁更为明显;⑥ 经济发展水平、城区人口规模等级、行政区划等级等因素与区域人口变动显著相关;西北半壁行政区划等级对人口增长的影响效应尤为突出。综合来看,西北半壁已经出现与东南半壁相似的人口集疏过程,人口集疏模式已突破了“胡焕庸线”。中国即将迎来人口总量拐点,人口城镇化进程逐步减速,密切关注“胡焕庸线”两侧人口发展的新特征,对推动全国各区域协调发展具有重要的战略意义。     

Use of the census of population to discern trends in the Welsh language: an aggregate analysis

The aim of this paper is to present a preliminary analysis of unitary authority level data from the 2001 census of population on the spatial (and, where available, temporal) patterns in proportions of Welsh speakers in Wales. In so doing we draw attention to the advantages (and limitations) of the census as a source of information on the state of the Welsh language. Although a 2 per cent increase in the percentage of Welsh speakers between 1991 and 2001 has been welcomed, several commentators have drawn attention to the change in the nature of the question asked at the 2001 census which may account for some of this increase. In this paper, we assess what is, and is not, possible to discern from the census, draw attention to other potential sources of information on the language and make some preliminary recommendations for those agencies concerned with monitoring trends in the future, both with regard to the need for more detailed language use surveys and the nature of the question included in subsequent censuses that would permit a more useful comparison of spatial and temporal trends.     

中国城镇化的农村减贫及其空间溢出效应——基于省级面板数据的空间计量分析

利用中国省级面板数据,运用空间计量模型,重点检验了2010—2017年间中国省域人口城镇化、土地城镇化和经济城镇化的农村减贫及其空间溢出效应。结果表明：①2010—2017年间中国省域农村贫困、人口城镇化和土地城镇化均表现出显著的空间集聚特征,而经济城镇化集聚现象呈现逐渐消减的态势。②人口城镇化对农村贫困主要表现为先缓解后加剧的“U”型特征,而经济城镇化则刚好与之相反,呈倒“U”型特点,土地城镇化对农村贫困的作用尚不明显,但主要表现出加剧农村贫困发生的潜在可能。③人口城镇化和经济城镇化对农村贫困产生了明显的空间溢出效应,同时,二者对农村贫困的空间溢出效应存在“门槛”现象。东部和中部地区的人口城镇化减贫直接效应门槛已基本突破,减贫潜力较弱,而大部分省份的人口城镇化减贫溢出效应门槛依然存在,益贫性的溢出效应仍然明显。相比之下,各省域经济城镇化减贫的直接效应和溢出效应门槛均已突破,整体上以益贫性为主。④城镇化发展过程中,应合理推进人口城镇化,加快完善相关制度改革。有效、有序地扩张城镇空间,优化城镇产业结构调整,壮大第三产业发展规模和强化其质量升级,增加城镇就业空间,提升城镇整体辐射带动效应。统筹协调区域人口、空间、资源等的分配与利用,充分发挥要素集聚带来的正向“外部性”作用,合力推进农村长效、稳定减贫,促进城乡协调与可持续发展。     

贫困县村级居民点空间分布离散度与农村居民纯收入关联格局分析

在城市群离散度度量方法的基础上,构建村级居民点空间分布离散度评价模型,采用GIS网络分析、叠加分析和统计分析,对研究区288个行政村进行居民点空间分布离散度评价,并与反映村级经济发展的重要指标——农村居民纯收入进行关联分析,在全县、不同地貌与不同经济圈层条件下,分别分析离散度综合指数(DCI)与经济发展的关联格局关系。结果表明：研究区居民点的离散度从城关镇到外围呈聚集—离散分布,具体表现为城关镇及其他乡镇政府所在地（即经济中心）的DCI较小,外围等非经济中心部分及山区DCI较大;DCI不仅随农村居民纯收入的增大而减小,还受其周围值的影响;山地条件下DCI与农村居民纯收入的负相关关系较丘陵及平原地区明显;经济圈的辐射作用对DCI与农村居民纯收入的影响很大。因此需要系统整治规划农村居民点,并可通过增设经济中心等方式,提高农村居民的经济发展水平,从而降低居民点的空间分布离散度,进而改善居民点的空间分布格局,巩固扶贫开发成效。     

秦巴山集中连片特困区农户多维贫困测度与影响机理分析——以商洛市为例

中国扶贫瞄准单位已下沉到农户单元,发展和完善农户尺度的多维贫困测度方法是精准配置扶贫资源、提高扶贫效率的关键。通过借鉴“人”“地”和“业”关系理论构建了“能力—资本—环境”多维贫困综合评估框架,以秦巴山特困区商洛为例,通过多维贫困测度体系对农户进行综合测度,识别样本区多维贫困户,进而与建档立卡贫困户进行对比分析,并探讨了多维贫困发生的主要影响机理,最后依据多维贫困户剥夺维度的组合划分不同类型。研究结果表明:① 有245户被识别为多维贫困户,239户被识别为非多维贫困户,多维贫困户与非多维贫困户在能力维度、资本维度和环境维度均存在较大差异;② 有84.08%的多维贫困户与建档立卡贫困户相重叠,多维贫困户在综合维度和单维度的贫困程度均较深;③ 多维贫困发生主要受“人”的发展能力和生产能力、“业”的金融资本、物质资本以及“地”的地理条件和区位的弱势或剥夺的影响;④ 多维贫困户划分为发展缺失型、复合贫困型、生存环境恶劣型和综合贫困型4类。     

新疆农村贫困化空间分布及影响因素探究——以荒地镇为例

在国家大力推进精准扶贫的政策背景下,分析不同地区贫困成因的差异性具有重要意义。本文以新疆维吾尔自治区莎车县荒地镇为研究区,通过地理探测器和地理加权回归模型探究该区贫困人口和状态的空间分布及其影响因素,研究结果表明：1)荒地镇农村贫困化呈现一定范围内集聚分布的特征,镇域中部和北部地区的贫困发生率明显高于其周边地区,中部的贫困地区由中心向四周扩散,北部的贫困发生率低于中部。2)导致贫困的主要因素包括距主干道距离、人口密度和男性人口所占比例。3)距离主干道的距离与贫困发生率呈现出明显的正向相关的关系,距离镇中心的距离与贫困发生率呈现出一定的负相关关系,人口密度与贫困发生率呈现出明显的负相关关系。4)依据不同地区贫困形成的主导因素,贫困地区可以划分为道路制约型和人口制约型,其中道路制约性主要分布在荒地镇的东南地区,而人口制约性主要分布在北部地区。针对不同成因的农村贫困,本文提出应该采用不同策略的扶贫措施。     

中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析

基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,对中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及其城镇化效应进行了系统分析。研究发现,流动人口分布的空间格局具有较强的稳定性,长三角、珠三角和京津冀等沿海城市群仍然是其主要集中地,且沿海集中区有连绵化的趋势,但在城市群内部的空间分布模式差异显著。流动人口向内陆地区的省会等特大城市集中趋势明显,其分布重心出现了明显的北移。省内县际的流动人口规模已接近于省际流动,且有更高的意愿和更强的能力永久居留城镇,省内县际的永久性迁移将成为未来中国人口城镇化的主导模式。中国流动人口迁入地的选择受到政府和市场双重力量的影响,后者的影响力更强。远距离流入东部地区的人口在务工之外,对享受城市生活也开始有所考虑;而中西部地区政府力量在引导人口流动中仍起到重要作用。大规模的人口流动对流出地和流入地的城镇化水平提高均有显著贡献,同时在很大程度上重构了中国城镇体系的等级规模结构和空间布局模式。     

Intensity of Rubber Planted and Population Urbanization: A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of Cities and Counties in Hainan Island

Population urbanization is the core of new urbanization in China and is an important task in the long term. Based on mediation effect models, spatial panel data econometric models, and coupling coordination models, this study attempts to identify the direct and indirect effects of the proportion of rubber-planted areas and the indications of population urbanization using panel data of counties on Hainan Island, explaining the mechanism. The results show that rubber plantations dominated by state-owned farms weakly impacted farmers' income in 1992-2002 (first phrase), and the effects became positive in the period of smallholding expansions from 2003 to 2013 (second phrase) at a statistically significant level of 10%. However, the effects became negative between 2013 and 2020 (third phrase) due to the continuously low prices of natural rubber compared to the second phrase; the regions with higher share of rubber plantations had less local fiscal revenues per capita—especially in the third phrase—mainly because of the short industrial chain of rubber in producing regions. Shares of rubber-planted areas in the city or county (defined as rubber-planted intensity, RPI) were negatively related to proportions of staff in the non-private sector (SNS) and nonrural employees (NRE) compared to people with jobs and census registered population urbanization rates (PUR). The reversed connections between RPI and NRE became weaker over time; a 10-percentage point increase in PRI might have led to a 10.3-percentage point decrease in NRE in the first phrase, but it reduced to 3.3 percentage points in NRE with no statistical significance in the third phrase. Conversely, the negative correlation of RPI with SNS and PUR became stronger from the first to third phrase; the farmers' income and local fiscal revenue could ease the negative relationships between RPI and SNS or NRE, but they turned to enhance the relation of RPI with PUR in the second and third phrase. The evidence from Moran's I and Geary's c indices proved the existence of obvious spatial correlations in the distribution of natural rubber and farmers' income and indicated that GDP per capita and other variables are also spatially related. The estimated spatial panel data models with adjacent, geographical and economical distance matrices indicated that the direct influences of RPI on SNS, NRE, and PUR were almost negative in all phrases, but the spillover and total effects can be positive in some situations, such as in the second phrase with adjacent and geographical distance matrices of PUR; this means that an increase in rubber-planted areas may promote nonfarm job market of adjacent regions mainly due to rural labor mobility. The coupling coordination degrees between the intensity of rubber planted and population urbanization of Haikou and Sanya reach 0.96 and 0.87, respectively, in the second and third phrases—much higher than those of other regions. Compared to the first phrase, the margin of increases in the degrees of coupling coordination in the second and third phrases are reducing from the east to west in Hainan Island. The key routes to mitigate the negative links are to improve labor productivity and extend the industrial chain of natural rubber along with the nonfarm job creation, and Hainan's population urbanization should consider many other possible angles across the island. © The Author(s) 2023.     

中国地级以上城市工业能源消费的增长——基于2001～2006年的数据分解

城市是能源消费的集中地区,能源影响和制约城市发展水平和速度.目前工业能耗占中国能源消费的70%左右.本文利用一种简单易行的能源分解方法,对99个地级以上城市在2001～2006年间工业能源消费变化量进行分解.结果表明,这一时期中国重工业化程度的加深导致新一轮的工业能源消费的高速增长.经济规模扩大是导致城市工业能源消费增...     

Spatial autocorrelation and data uncertainty in the American Community Survey: a critique

ABSTRACT

We argue that the use of American Community Survey (ACS) data in spatial autocorrelation statistics without considering error margins is critically problematic. Public health and geographical research has been slow to recognize high data uncertainty of ACS estimates, even though ACS data are widely accepted data sources in neighborhood health studies and health policies. Detecting spatial autocorrelation patterns of health indicators on ACS data can be distorted to the point that scholars may have difficulty in perceiving the true pattern. We examine the statistical properties of spatial autocorrelation statistics of areal incidence rates based on ACS data. In a case study of teen birth rates in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, in 2010, Global and Local Moran’s I statistics estimated on 5-year ACS estimates (2006–2010) are compared to ground truth rate estimates on actual counts of births certificate records and decennial-census data (2010). Detected spatial autocorrelation patterns are found to be significantly different between the two data sources so that actual spatial structures are misrepresented. We warn of the possibility of misjudgment of the reality and of policy failure and argue for new spatially explicit methods that mitigate the biasedness of statistical estimations imposed by the uncertainty of ACS data.     

京津冀地区乡村振兴地域模式研究——基于乡村非农就业与农民增收的空间效应

探讨乡村非农就业与农民增收、农业农村发展之间的辩证关系,构建乡村振兴地域模式,对有序推进城镇化,实现农民生活富裕与乡村振兴具有重要意义。将京津冀地区划分为京津近郊区（I）、冀东北地区（II）、冀中平原区（III）、冀西太行山区（IV）、坝上地区（V）五类地域类型,采用2000—2016年京津冀县域面板数据,应用空间回归模型测算了京津冀地区乡村非农就业对农民增收的空间效应,提炼了京津冀地区乡村振兴地域模式。结果表明：① 京津冀地区及五类地域类型区乡村就业非农化率与农民收入持续增长,2000—2016年,京津冀地区农村居民人均纯收入由2486元增至11920元,乡村就业非农化率由38.9%增至57.5%,五类地域类型区乡村就业非农化率排序依次为：I>III>II>IV>V,农村居民人均纯收入排序依次为：I>II>III>IV>V;② 京津冀地区乡村就业非农化率每提高1个单位,农民收入增长9.215个单位,I、II、III、V区就业非农化对农民收入的弹性系数分别为29.986、-23.605、-10.388、9.951,IV区两者之间关系不显著;③ 依据不同地域类型乡村非农就业与农民增收的特征、机理与未来发展趋势,提炼了京津冀地区乡村振兴的四种地域模式,即就业平稳型+农工商主导、兼业型+现代农业主导、就业输出型+复合型特色农业主导、就业输出型+生态农旅主导。     

Exploring Cities through a Population Ageing Matrix: a spatial and temporal analysis of older adult population trends in Perth,Australia

In an increasingly urbanised and ageing world the spatial distribution of an older population is a matter of growing scholarly and policy interest. Much of the research on this topic has tended to draw on one of two key measures: structural ageing, or the ratio of older cohorts to the rest of the population, or numeric ageing, which simply counts the number of older people without reference to the rest of the population. This paper argues that, on their own, these measures have limitations, and that considerable value lies in assessing the interplay between numeric and structural ageing measures. The population ageing matrix, a theoretical framework that classifies the demographic dynamics of population ageing across metropolitan areas, is presented and examined through the case study of Perth, Western Australia. The value of the matrix to reveal patterns and trends missed by analyses of single measures is investigated and areas that are experiencing changes in the composition and size of the ageing demographic are identified. The paper also reflects on the implications of these findings for policy and planning.     

山东省产业生态化时空分异特征与影响因素——基于17地市时空面板数据

本文综合构建了产业生态化评价指标体系,并利用熵值法、耦合协调分析、探索性空间数据分析方法、空间计量等多种计量方法对2005—2016年山东省17地级市产业生态化水平时空分异特征与影响因素进行了综合研究,结果表明：① 产业生态化依赖于产业化物质消耗型规模增长,但不以结构优化为基础的产业化势必忽视经济要素的横向转移反馈作用与集群效应,导致资源配置的低效现象;② 产业生态化水平逐年递增反映出产业系统与生态环境系统由拮抗向良性共轭方向发展,但其增长率较低说明了产业轻型化与清型化进程滞缓,其质量提升之路漫长而艰巨;③ 产业生态化呈现东中西递减的空间梯度分异特征,东部沿海地区始终是热点区,西部地区尤其是鲁西南地区始终是冷点区;④ 产业生态化水平空间相关性较为显著,经济发展水平、产业结构、外商投资等因素负向溢出效应比较明显,而政府调控以及环境规制强度等因素正向溢出效应突出。     

Integrating GIS and data warehousing in a Web environment: A case study of the US 1880 Census

While the business intelligence sector, involving data warehouses and online analytical processing (OLAP) technologies, is experiencing strong growth in the IT marketplace, relatively little attention has been devoted to the problem of utilizing such tools in conjunction with GIS. This study contributes to the development of this research area by examining the issues involved in the design and implementation of an integrated data warehouse and GIS system that delivers analytical OLAP and mapping results in real‐time across the Web. The case study chosen utilizes individual records from the US 1880 population census, which have recently been made available by the North Atlantic Population Project. Although historical datasets of this kind present a number of challenges for data warehousing, the results indicate that the integrated approach adopted offers a much more flexible and powerful analytical methodology for this kind of large social science dataset than has hitherto been available.