弹性、脆弱性和适应——IHDP三个核心概念综述

弹性、脆弱性和适应是全球环境变化人文因素计划( IHDP) 中三个非常重要的核心概念。 由于各自学科研究传统的差异, 不同学科在使用这些概念时其含义有很大差异, 有的甚至是不可 比的。本文主要根据《Global Environmental Change》2006 年第3 期发表的IHDP 学术委员会专题 研讨会成果, 结合UNU 关于脆弱性的研究成果, 重点介绍了这三个核心概念的演变以及相互联 系等方面的最新研究进展。     

全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价

未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。     

Environmental Governance Meets Reality: A Micro-Scale Perspective on Sustainability Certification Schemes for Oil Palm Smallholders in Jambi,Sumatra

Abstract

Multi-stakeholder sustainability certification schemes have become a favorite instrument for applying good governance, though studies indicate their inefficiency at the producer level. In this study, we used a mixed-method approach to first, map the institutional context of independent oil-palm smallholders in rural Sumatra while, second, reflecting upon the impact of the Smallholder Standard proposed by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil on smallholder management practices. We hold that non-recognition of micro-scale perspectives within governance processes may partially explain noncompliance with certification principles among smallholders. The Smallholder Standard appears unable to mitigate challenges important for smallholders, who in turn cannot properly comply with it, due to problems including weather instability and high management costs. We suggest that certification schemes need to work on some overlooked but essential preconditions of good governance, namely gaining micro-level visibility and acceptance.     

全球环境变化下人-环境耦合系统的脆弱性研究综述

全球环境变化导致的冲击和压力已经成为社会与生态系统可持续发展的主要障碍,脆弱性分析作为可持续研究的主要分析工具之一引起了研究者的广泛关注。目前脆弱性研究还没有形成完善的理论体系、规范的评估程序和普遍适用的方法。本文在阅读了国内外脆弱性研究相关文献的基础上,从人-环境耦合系统的角度总结了脆弱性的概念框架,对不同研究背景下的脆弱性定义和三个组成要素进行了深入的分析,归纳了脆弱性研究的核心问题;梳理了脆弱性的起源、发展和现状,总结了人-环境耦合系统脆弱性研究中的热点问题和几个典型的脆弱性综合分析框架。由当前脆弱性的发展状况指出了未来脆弱性研究需要解决的问题:确定并有效表达系统脆弱性与多个压力间的因果关系、人-环境耦合系统的不确定性、脆弱性动力学机制问题和脆弱性与风险管理决策的信息互动关系。     

Recent Environmental Change and Atmospheric Contamination on Svalbard as Recorded in Lake Sediments – Synthesis and General Conclusions

The major patterns of biostratigraphical and geochemical change detected in a multidisciplinary study on recent environmental change and atmospheric contamination on Svalbard are summarised and synthesised. The patterns discussed are changes in sediment accumulation rates, organic matter accumulation rates, atmospheric contaminants, and biological assemblages (diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, chironomids). Possible environmental factors that may have influenced these patterns are discussed, in particular, the role of atmospheric contamination (including the deposition of nitrogen-compounds), local human impact, and recent climatic change. The major conclusions are (1) sediment accumulation rates show consistent temporal and geographical patterns with rates increasing towards the present-day and highest in the south, (2) sediment organic-matter accumulation rates increase markedly in the last 50–100 years, (3) atmospheric contamination is a combination of local and regional sources, (4) sediment inorganic geochemistry suggests catchment and lake responses to climate change in the last 30–50 years, (5) all lakes show a marked increase in the rate of biotic compositional changes in the last 50–100 years, and (6) Svalbard lakes appear to be highly dynamic and show considerable biotic and sedimentary changes in recent decades. The most likely cause of many of the observed changes is recent climatic change, with some local human activity at one site. Detailed interpretation of the observed changes is problematic given current limited knowledge about high Arctic limnology, biology, and catchment processes.     

海岸沙地利用变化及其环境效应研究进展

地处全球变化敏感地区的海岸沙地的利用变化及其环境效应日益受到关注。文章通过对海岸沙地利用及其变化研究的发展历程,海岸沙地利用变化研究的案例与技术方法,海岸沙地利用变化所引起的大气环境、水环境、土壤环境、生物环境等方面的环境效应研究等文献的梳理和总结,对国内外海岸沙地利用变化及其环境效应的研究进展进行了综述,并提出了今后研究的主要方向：海岸沙地利用变化未来发展的情景模拟、海岸沙地利用演变驱动机理的定量分析、海岸沙地利用的整体生态环境效应研究、海岸沙地防护林地的合理开发与布局等。     

The Dynamics of Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) Assemblages in Response to Environmental Change during the past 700 years on Svalbard

The impact of recent natural and human-induced environmental change on chironomid faunas on Svalbard has been investigated. The modern chironomid fauna was studied from surface-sediment samples collected from 23 lakes in western Svalbard. A total of 18 taxa was found, of which three had not been recorded previously from Svalbard. The influence of water chemistry and physical variables on the distribution and abundance of the modern chironomid assemblages was investigated using correspondence analysis and multiple regression. The chironomid assemblages fall into four groups, which are primarily influenced by pH, nutrient concentrations, water temperature, and water depth. Sediment cores were taken from three lakes to investigate changes in chironomid assemblages over the last 700 years. At two of the sites there is evidence for a response to regional climatic change occurring about 200 years ago and may have been associated with the ‘Little Ice Age’. At the third site there is a response to local catchment changes, probably brought about, initially, by the establishment of a human settlement close to the lake 70 years ago, and subsequently, as a result of the abandonment of this settlement in 1988.     

澜沧江干流河谷盆地气候特征及变化趋势

关于气候变化，许多学者已在全球或全国范围内做过很多研究。但是全球气候变化是非同步的，受地形、自然条件的变更、人为活动的影响，区域气候将发生变化，特定地点的气候变化特征将具有时间和空间的特殊性。而且，区域气候变化研究对其经济等各方面发展具有十分重要的影响。为研究特殊区域-纵向岭谷区气候变化特征和趋势，把握区域气候对全球变化的响应程度，利用贯穿于澜沧江干流河谷盆地的18个气象站1960-2000年的观测资料，通过统计分析，探讨了干流河谷盆地区域的气温和降水的时空分布特征及其变化趋势。结果表明：澜沧江干流河谷盆地气温和降水总体上有自南部向北部递减的趋势，即南部的气温比北部高，降水比北部多。澜沧江干流河谷盆地气候变化与全球和全国气候变化趋势基本一致：气温变化总趋势是增温(年平均气温上升率为0．0152℃(2／a)，其增温率大于全国和全球的平均增温率；降水变化趋势则较为复杂，总体趋势为减少，但其变化规律不如气温明显；气温和降水的变化趋势具有明显的区域性和季节性，流域内各分区的气候变化幅度不同，时空分布也存在显著差异。澜沧江流域森林面积的减少乃是该区域气候变化的原因之一。     

我国玉米对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

文章利用英国Hadley中心PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景格点数据,输入CERES_Maize作物模型,对我国未来(2 070 s)不同格点玉米产量进行预测,并依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对我国未来玉米气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性进行研究,找出了未来我国玉米的气候变化敏感区和脆弱区,对指导我国不同玉米生产区有效适应未来气候变化具有重要的科学意义。     

Recent Environmental Change and Human Impact on Svalbard: The Lake-Sediment Geochemical Record

As part of a broader investigation into recent environmental change on Svalbard, the inorganic geochemical record of six lake-sediment cores was analysed. The major temporal trends in sediment elemental composition are driven by variations in two contrasting sediment components, both derived from catchment soils: (1) mineral matter, and (2) soil organic matter (SOM), enriched in Fe and Mn oxides and heavy metals. Two environmental impacts are recorded in most or all of the lake sediment sequences. An up-core increase in organic matter can be partly attributed to diagenetic effects, but also requires an enhanced supply of SOM relative to mineral matter. In addition, the central and southern sites all show a ca. 1970 event characterised by an enhanced mineral matter accumulation rate. This requires either an enhanced allochthonous supply or an enhanced mobilisation of littoral sediments. In either case a regional-scale driving force, such as a shift in climate, is required. At five of the lakes the sediment heavy metal concentration profiles can be explained entirely by natural factors. However, at Tenndammen (U), situated close to the Svalbard’s largest settlement at Longyearbyen, possible anthropogenic Pb enrichment is found. Comparison of observed and expected heavy metal profiles (based on Greenland ice-core data) shows that the lakes are generally too insensitive to have recorded a long-transported heavy metal pollution signal.     

Distribution and Autecology of Chrysophyte Cysts from High Arctic Svalbard Lakes: Preliminary Evidence of Recent Environmental Change

Chrysophycean stomatocyst assemblages were analysed from the sediments of 17 lakes and ponds from Svalbard as one component of a multi-proxy investigation of recent environmental change in the high Arctic. Sediment cores and water chemistry were collected from each of the study lakes, and chrysophyte stomatocysts were investigated from the top 0.25 cm of sediment (present-day) and bottom (i.e., bottom of short sediment core, pre-industrial) sediment samples. This study represents the first undertaking of chrysophyte cyst morphology and distribution on Svalbard. A total of 153 cyst morphotypes were described with light microscopy and/or scanning electron microscopy, of which 21 are new forms. Canonical correspondence analysis indicates that the present-day distribution of cysts is significantly related to pH (p= 0.02), altitude (p= 0.02), and Na⁺ (p= 0.04). Marked shifts in chrysophyte cyst assemblages were recorded between the top and bottom sediment samples of most lakes. A recent study has demonstrated that Svalbard lakes receive atmospheric contaminants from both local and remote sources. The observed assemblage shifts may be the result of the combined effects of these point sources and long-range pollutants, or the effects of recent climate change, or both.     

青藏高原气候变化对气候带的影响

已经发生和未来的全球气候变化对将自然界和人类社会产生一系列的影响，特别是全球气候要素的地导致气候带的变动，进而导致自然带（区）的变动并影响人类的生产、生活。在青藏高原20世纪50年代到90年代气温变化分析的基础上，讨论了40年来积温等气候带指标值的变化特征，并依据对未来气候情景的假设，指出未来全球气候变化背景下，青藏高原气候带的可能变动。     

未来海岸环境变化的易损范围及评估--江苏滨海平原个例研究

以海面上升与灾害加剧为标志的海岸环境变化将是２１世纪海岸地区社会经济发展面监 的最严峻挑战。评估未来海岸环境变化的易损性是联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（ＩＰＣＣ）敦促沿海各国政论在评估气候变化及其影响是必须先优开展的工作之一。针对已有在研究存在的问题,发展了适用于面积广阔、微地貌条件复杂且有海堤保护的大河三角洲和滨海平原海岸环境变化易损范围确定和易损性评估的方法。并基于江苏滨海平原黄型潮滩剖面外     

基于农户生计策略的土地利用/覆被变化效应综述

农户生计策略变化是农户面对环境变化和自身生计资产所作出的一种理性选择,它直接影响到人类活动与自然环境之间的相互作用,并在很大程度上驱动着农村人地系统的演化。通过对国内外农户生计策略变化研究进展的系统阐述和理论总结,重点阐明农户生计策略内涵、可持续生计框架、生计策略变化对土地利用/覆被变化的影响等方面,提出生计非农化和农业集约化是当前发展中国家和地区农户生计策略变化的主要趋势。最后,结合当前社会经济需求和科学研究需求,展望未来农户生计策略变化的研究趋势。     

气候变化对中国滨海湿地的影响及对策

我国滨海湿地面临着持续退化和损失的风险,其中气候变化通过海平面上升、海水表层温度上升、风暴潮、海水入侵和海岸带侵袭,以及海洋酸碱度变化等一系列影响,导致了沿海湿地的退化与消失,制约了沿海地区的可持续发展。在总结中国湿地退化现状的基础上,分析了气候变化对中国湿地的影响,并从自发性适应和计划性适应两个方面探讨了潜在的滨海湿地气候变化适应性对策。认为将来可进一步加强对滨海湿地气候变化影响与响应机制的监测和研究,为制定相关政策和培养相关管理人员提供依据。     

土地利用/覆被变化的环境效应研究进展与动向

土地利用／覆被变化产生的环境问题已引起人类社会的广泛关注,深入研究这些问题具有重要的理论和实践意义。在简要回顾土地利用／覆被变化对大气环境、土壤环境和水环境影响已有研究的基础上,结合中国研究的实际,分析了中国土地利用／覆被变化的环境效应研究中存在的问题,并对今后的研究趋势做了讨论。     

气候变化对我国农业地理分布的影响及对策

依据已有的研究结果, 分析了全球变化的趋势和温室气体（特别是CO2） 对气候变化的贡献和影响以及气候变化对我国和世界农业地理分布和农业生产的影响。分大区分析了气候变化对水稻、小麦、玉米等影响情况。提出了我国农业对全球气候变化应采取的战略对策和措施, 这些对策和措施可分为减缓温室气体排放和适应气候变化两部分。     

The Interaction of Religion,Political Ideology,and Concern About Climate Change in the United States

Political ideology and religion are considered important influences on attitudes about climate change, as many people rely on ideological and religious cues to help shape attitudes about this highly complex, uncertain, and politicized issue. While many scholars have studied the impacts of political orientation and religious affiliation independently, few have studied whether and how they interact in shaping concern about climate change. This article uses a large sample study to examine the impact of religious tradition on two indicators of concern about climate change within categories of political ideology. This study shows that religious affiliation moderates the impact of ideology, and that these interaction effects vary across religious traditions. Perhaps most significantly, this study reveals that religious affiliation is most influential on political liberals but has very little impact on conservatives. This holds significant implications for the way we understand the relationship between religion and environmental attitudes.     

Impact of Water Vapor on Elevation-dependent Climate Change

Elevation dependency amongst climate change signals has been found in major mountain ranges around the world, but the main factors causing this dependency have not been clarified. In this study, four different datasets of observation and reanalysis for China were used to examine the elevation dependency of climate change. A lack of consistency was found in dependency between warming magnitude and elevation across the Tibetan Plateau and China. However, a dependency of climate change on water vapor was detected whereby the temperature trend initially increased at low specific humidity, and then decreased as specific humidity increased. At ground level the maximum trend in temperature appeared in the specific humidity range 2.0-3.0 g kg^-1. This suggests that water vapor is a mediator of climate change and may be responsible for elevation-dependent climate change.     

土壤环境变化与可持续发展

土壤环境的变化在短时间内是缓慢且不易察觉的,但是在地球历史的演化中,它留下了一丝丝印迹,这就是古土壤,它包含了当时环境的大量依据,是５大成土因素的综合产物,当人类出现后,尤其是近百年来在复杂的自然因素上又叠加了人为作用,并且这种作用的强度与日俱增,当它对土壤的影响超过其它作用后,例形成人为土壤,同时,也可能引起土壤退化和土壤污染,这些变化同全球变化和社会持续发展密切相关。