Economic‐Development Stakeholder Perspectives on Boomtown Dynamics in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas

Unconventional oil and gas production in the United States reversed a decades‐old trend of rising oil imports, provided an argument for lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban and motivated the development of domestic natural gas export facilities. But the most visible impact of unconventional‐hydrocarbon extraction is the creation of boomtowns in rural regions. Despite widespread media coverage, scholarly analysis of boomtowns is restricted to regional econometric studies with little attention to how economic stakeholders understand and respond to booming economies. Here we analyze interviews with key economic stakeholders in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. Respondents consider their community's economic success relative to the price of oil and indicate concerns about the deterioration of roads, high housing demand, and skyrocketing wages. We also re‐examine John Gilmore's foundational work on boomtowns in the 1970s in the context of contemporary unconventional extraction.     

Ownership and Spatial Distribution of Eagle Ford Mineral Wealth in Live Oak County,Texas

U.S. unconventional hydrocarbon production is a driver of economic growth, but mineral wealth ownership is poorly understood and shrouded in “local wealth” mythology that claims royalties from hydrocarbons mostly benefit people who live near sites of production. Mineral property tax appraisals, as proxies for mineral wealth from Live Oak County, a representative Eagle Ford Shale county in Texas, show that 96 percent of assessed mineral wealth concentrates among energy firms and individuals in Texas metropolitan regions; 1.95 percent of mineral wealth remains “local” to the production county, challenging local wealth myths. Deviating from nation-state scalar approaches, local and regional spatial studies of other energy regions might reveal similar wealth distributions, enabling generalizations about hydrocarbon production economic outcomes.     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2011 Review

This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and uranium resources. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report. Coal and uranium are expected to supply a significant portion of the world’s energy mix in coming years. Coalbed methane continues to supply about 9% of the U.S. gas production and exploration is expanding in other countries. Recently, natural gas produced from shale and low-permeability (tight) sandstone has made a significant contribution to the energy supply of the United States and is an increasing target for exploration around the world. In addition, oil from shale and heavy oil from sandstone are a new exploration focus in many areas (including the Green River area of Wyoming and northern Alberta). In recent years, research in the areas of geothermal energy sources and gas hydrates has continued to advance. Reviews of the current research and the stages of development of these unconventional energy resources are described in the various sections of this report.     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2013 Review

This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries and an analysis of energy economics prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight-gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and U and Th resources and associated rare earth elements of industrial interest. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report.     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2007–2008 Review

This paper summarizes five 2007–2008 resource commodity committee reports prepared by the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Current United States and global research and development activities related to gas hydrates, gas shales, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources are included in this review. These commodity reports were written to advise EMD leadership and membership of the current status of research and development of unconventional energy resources. Unconventional energy resources are defined as those resources other than conventional oil and natural gas that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks. Gas hydrate resources are potentially enormous; however, production technologies are still under development. Gas shale, geothermal, oil sand, and uranium resources are now increasing targets of exploration and development, and are rapidly becoming important energy resources that will continue to be developed in the future.

---

     

Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential

Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale is one of several unconventional gas plays that have been discovered in the U.S. in recent years and promise to dramatically change the course of future domestic energy development. The Haynesville Shale is the deepest, hottest, and highest pressured shale among the big four plays in the U.S. with drilling and completion cost ranging between 7 and7 and 10 million per well. The average Haynesville well has an initial production rate of 10 MMcfd and declines rapidly, producing 80% of its expected recovery during the first 2 years of production. The purpose of this article is to describe the productivity characteristics of Haynesville wells, project future production from the inventory of active wells, and assess production potential based on drilling scenarios. We offer statistical analysis of the wells drilled to date and construct type profiles to characterize the play. We estimate that the current inventory of Haynesville wells will produce 3 Tcf over their lifecycles, and within the next 3 years, cumulative build-out in the region will range between 3 and 9 Tcf. To maintain current gas production levels in the state, we estimate that about 550 shale gas wells per year will need to be brought online over the next 3 years.     

资源禀赋、外部效应与中国油气资源产业的空间地理分布(英文)

本文首先利用空间统计分析工具对我国油气资源产业的空间分布状况和规律进行了考察,然后运用空间计量经济模型对导致油气资源产业空间集聚的影响因素进行了实证检验。检验结果表明,我国油气资源产业发展呈现出产异化的空间分布状况,油气资源产业的上游集中于环鄂尔多斯区域,油气资源产业的下游没有出现空间集聚。而在影响我国油气资源产业空间集聚的因素中,外部效应是促使油气资源产业空间集聚的关键。同时,政府经济政策则是油气资源产业空间集聚的重要影响因素。     

入世对我国常规化石能源产业发展的影响分析

能源作为关系国家经济发展和国家政治经济安全的重要物质基础,一直受到人们的普遍关注。中国加入世界贸易组织后,随着经济全球化和贸易自由化进程的加快,必然会对国内乃至世界能源的开发和利用产生一系列的影响。文章试图从目前我国的能源现状出发,多角度的探讨入世对我国煤炭、石油、天然气产业发展带来的机遇和挑战,以期能够为我国今后的能源产业发展实践提供一些参考。     

俄罗斯和中亚五国资源开发现状与潜力分析

俄罗斯和中亚五国地域辽阔,土地、森林、水、能源等自然资源丰富,尤其是有色金属矿藏,种类配套齐全,在世界都占有重要地位。俄罗斯和中亚五国与中国在地缘、历史和文化等多方面有着悠久的历史,具有资源开发、经贸合作和科技交流的国际背景和有利条件。俄罗斯和中亚五国十分重视资源开发和原料出口,向主要经济合作伙伴推销资源产品,并很快引起许多国家,尤其是经济发展较快国家的重视。在未来的几年中,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国在土地、电力、建材、机械、畜牧业、信息、交通等领域都有着广阔的合作空间。可以说,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国及其辐射地区市场潜力巨大,待开发的领域空白点较多,特别是里海、西伯利亚的石油和天然气,是21世纪全球最具能源开发前景的地区,而能源勘探与开采领域则是我们未来需要重点发展合作的领域。但是,中亚国家的原料型经济倾向,参与世界经济一体化程度不足,生产和社会基础薄弱,这些问题都阻碍着中亚国家的可持续发展。特别是中亚国家的加工工业和轻工业相对落后,大部分日用消费品依靠进口。这是我国在中亚区域经济合作中充分发挥市场优势、加工业优势的有利条件。所以,资源和经济技术的互补性,对发展中国与中亚五国和俄罗斯双边的区域经济合作都将起到积极作用。展望21世纪的俄罗斯、中亚五国与中国的经贸合作关系,根据俄罗斯和中亚各国资源状况实地调查和统计资料等,对区域资源开发现状与潜力进行了分析,对共同面对的问题,合作的基础和条件及合作前景,都进行了探讨。     

中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国能源合作前景展望

中国是当今世界上仅次于美国的第二大能源消费国和进口国,能源供应安全直接关系到中国的国家安全和现代化进程。通过与俄罗斯和中亚五国的能源合作来扩展石油与天然气来源,与传统的海运进口方式相比,不仅可以大幅度节省运费和时间,而且能源供应的安全性也可大大提高。本文从地理学和地缘政治角度,在深入分析中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国开展能源合作的战略背景、现实需要、资源储备、发展现状的基础上,结合已有的能源合作项目和发展计划,预测了未来至2030 年不同时间点的能源合作潜力与规模。主要结论如下:① 至2015 年,来自俄罗斯及中亚五国的原油在中国原油进口总额中所占比例将由2010 年的12.3%上升至20%,而天然气由10%上升至50%,两者相加占中国油气综合进口量的26%;② 至2020 年,来自俄罗斯和中亚五国的原油、天然气和油气综合进口量所占比例分别上升至28%、70%和38%;③ 至2030 年,分别占26%、75%和40%。本文筛选并展望了中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国已经开展或即将开展的10 项重要能源合作项目。为进一步提升能源合作,本文重点推荐了4 种合作模式,即贷款换石油模式、产量分成模式、联合经营模式和技术服务模式,认为应妥善协调能源合作中的矛盾与问题,加强能源开发中的生态保护与环境治理,并重视改善能源合作开发区域的民生状况。     

Spatial Discontinuities in Support for Hydraulic Fracturing: Searching for a “Goldilocks Zone”

Recent research suggests that those located closer to energy development are, on average, more supportive of this development. However, case studies in specific locations reveal additional nuance. In a case study of Bakken Shale residents, Junod et al. identified a “Goldilocks Zone” of unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) acceptance—an area on the periphery of development that is “just right” because residents feel close enough to receive economic benefits but far enough away to avoid negative impacts. We explore whether this Goldilocks Zone extends nationally by combining geocoded public opinion data (N?=?23,154) with UOGD locations. Using multilevel regression modeling, we find that respondents located within 115?km of newly active UOGD are more supportive of hydraulic fracturing while those located within 115–305?km are comparatively less supportive. While we do not uncover a national-level Goldilocks Zone, our work highlights innovative approaches for examining spatial relationships in energy development opinion.     

中国与全球能源网络的互动逻辑与格局转变

当前中国正处于从油气时代向可再生能源时代转变的关键时期,中国能源需求结构和能源利用形式的变化决定了中国与全球能源的互动逻辑发生了深刻转变。为更好理解中国与全球的能源互动过程,本文探讨了全球能源互动的基本理论认知,并借助复杂网络、投入产出分析等技术方法分析了中国与全球能源互动格局及其变化。研究发现中国与全球能源互动的范围不断扩大,程度不断加深,从油气贸易到可再生能源贸易,从油气为主的投资到多元化能源品种的投资,从传统能源贸易到隐含能源贸易等方面,中国逐渐塑造了多元化的全球能源格局。主要结论为：① “多煤少油缺气”的能源生产结构和巨大的油气需求,决定了保障海外油气供应是中国与全球能源互动最直接的逻辑,互动区域主要集中在油气富集的国家和地区。② 随着可再生能源的发展,中国与全球能源互动逻辑从单纯的油气贸易转变为涉及可再生能源相关产品的贸易,凭借制造业优势,互动范围从油气富集的国家和地区拓展到全球拥有可再生能源发展和装机需求的国家,形成了覆盖全球主要国家和地区的可再生能源贸易新格局。③ 中国的海外能源投资目标从有限数量的东道国扩展到欧洲、东南亚等国家和地区,投资业务不仅局限在油气领域,也扩大到太阳能、风能和水能等可再生能源发电项目及电网等基础设施建设投资。④ 中国作为全球制造业大国和贸易大国,在全球化程度加深的背景下,部分能源隐含于全球生产网络和贸易网络中进行二次分配,中国与全球能源互动范围进一步拓展到与中国具有一般商品贸易关系的国家和地区,形成了全球“能源中枢”的功能。本文可为深刻认识中国与全球的能源互动关系,维护国家能源安全和参与全球能源经济治理提供理论视角与决策依据。     

东非油气资源开发的历史透视与现状解析

东非油气资源开发始于一战前,二战后出现第一个勘探高峰期。随着冷战结束,东非油气资源开发的力度不断加大,国际能源公司纷纷入驻。在中小型能源公司的积极开拓下,于2006年以后相继取得重大勘探成果。东非油气资源已呈现出分布广、储量大的特点,并吸引一批国际大型能源公司的投资,加快了能源产业的发展,推动了能源立法的建设。随着东非在全球能源版图中地位的凸显,地区外大国在该地区的博弈也日趋激烈。东非各国则获得发展的新机遇,并将推进地区一体化进程。然而,若东非各国不能妥善处理政府能力问题、腐败问题、经济结构问题、利益分配问题、恐怖主义问题等,将有可能陷入"资源诅咒"的陷阱中。     

A Review of Louisiana Drilling and Production Activity, 1980–2011

Louisiana plays an important role in domestic oil and natural gas production, and in 2012 ranked sixth in oil production and third in gas production in the United States. Conventional oil and gas production in Louisiana has been declining steadily over the past four decades, while unconventional gas production has seen spectacular growth in recent years, effectively doubling the state’s natural gas output over three years. The structural changes impacting Louisiana’s oil and gas industry are complex and dynamic, and to better understand the relationships between activity drivers, a review of drilling and production data between 1980 and 2011 is performed and correlative relationships are developed. Drilling and completion trends, including completion and success rate statistics and drilled footage, are summarized by region. Correlative relationships are established between measured footage and the number of wells drilled, drilling activity, abandonments, and commodity price. We show that drilling activity in North Louisiana is highly responsive to changing oil prices, whereas in South Louisiana, activity is relatively inelastic. Well abandonments are shown to be negatively related to commodity prices. Horizontal, directional, active, idle, and orphaned well inventories are summarized.     

能耗氮排放变化及对区域温度变化的胁迫评价——以新疆为例

基于对1980-2014年新疆能耗和终端能耗氮排放估算,选取能耗总量、电耗总量、工业能耗量和终端能耗氮排量,研究与新疆区域温度变化指标的关联系数,构建能耗对区域温度变化的胁迫模型。结果表明：（1）城市化高速期能耗和电耗增长显著高于加速期。（2）终端能耗氮排量和氮排放终端能源的结构变化指标1980-2014年均持续增加,终端能源氮排放向综合方向发展,各产业部门氮排放结构变化由工业主力型向多产业部门发展。（3）能耗指标和温度变化指标的关联系数均通过p=0.01水平显著检验,工业能耗总量和城郊温差关联系数略大于能耗总量和电力消耗。（4）工业能源终端消耗量的增加对城郊温差的胁迫关系呈三次多项式的形式增加。     

Thermal evolution and shale gas potential estimation of the Wealden and Posidonia Shale in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands: a 3D basin modelling study

Sedimentary basins in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands represent potential targets for shale gas exploration in Europe due to the presence of Cretaceous (Wealden) and Jurassic (Posidonia) marlstones/shales as well as various Carboniferous black shales. In order to assess the regional shale gas prospectivity of this area, a 3D high‐resolution petroleum system model has been compiled and used to reconstruct the source‐rock maturation based on calibrated burial and thermal histories. Different basal heat flow scenarios and accordingly, different high‐resolution scenarios of erosional amount distribution were constructed, incorporating all major uplift events that affected the study area. The model delivers an independent 3D reappraisal of the tectonic and thermal history that controlled the differential geodynamic evolution and provides a high‐resolution image of the maturity distribution and evolution throughout the study area and the different basins. Pressure, temperature and TOC‐dependent gas storage capacity and gas contents of the Posidonia Shale and Wealden were calculated based on experimentally derived Langmuir sorption parameters and newly compiled source‐rock thickness maps indicating shale gas potential of the Lower Saxony Basin, southern Gifhorn Trough and West Netherlands Basin.     

中国海洋油气资源开发与国家石油安全战略对策

石油是中国能源安全的核心问题,随着我国石油供应对外依赖程度的增大,石油安全问题越来越突出,将会成为我国21世纪经济、社会可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。我国是海洋油气资源丰富的国家,广阔的海域中分布着近100×10⁴km²的含油沉积盆地,近海石油资源量为240×10⁸t,天然气资源量为140×10¹²m³。海洋油气资源的开发利用,将能部分解决我国油气资源进口数量。本文讨论了解决石油安全的四种模式,对我国油气安全的国际和国内条件进行了分析,提出了解决我国油气安全的战略对策。     

THE RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE LONG-DISTANCE OILPIPELINE ENGINEERING

LTkemskS0tu.ce0fL0ng-mstance0nflpeAncEwiceringSincel992,thenskassessmentoflongdistanceoilpipeline(LDOP)inN0rthwestChinahasbeenputtoagendasystematically.TheLD0PconstruCtionfromLiuyUantowntoLu0yangcltymakeuPthemajorpipelineengineeringwhichstrotchesover2,ll5kmandservesasoneofthemaJorcrudeoilpipelinesinnorthWestinlandroponofChina(Figurel).Theriskeventinducedbynaturaldisasterscanbedividedintofourwaysfl.EaffoquakcIhhistory,LD0PenrouteroponsexPenontaleafthquakes.Theearthquakemagntude,scal…     

Life in the Goldilocks Zone: Perceptions of Place Disruption on the Periphery of the Bakken Shale

Community impacts from oil development in the Bakken Shale, located in the north central region of the United States, have been well reported in the press, including highly publicized accounts of social disruption. Less examined are communities on the periphery of such development, which experience related impacts unique to their location. Twenty-eight long-time residents from three Bakken periphery communities were interviewed to evaluate social and environmental impact perceptions, including perceived risks of place disruption. Findings suggest that whereas place meanings and identities were disrupted by the oil boom in Bakken core communities, they remain intact in these periphery communities. Findings further suggest periphery residents view their proximal location to the Bakken region as a social and economic “Goldilocks Zone:” close enough to benefit from spillover economic impacts, yet far enough away to avoid serious negative social impacts. This research extends understanding of place disruption and development impacts in energy periphery communities.     

Economic development and energy efficiency in Jilin Province,China

The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is revealed by employing cointegration theory, the index decomposition method, and a log-linear regression approach based on a case study of Jilin Province, China. The results suggest： 1） the economic development and energy consumption are interdetermined, whose relationship is positive and long-term. The economic development is highly depending on the energy in Jilin Province. 2） Under the condition of other unchanged factors, the change of industrial energy efficiency contributes to the energy saving, while that of industrial structure increases the energy consumption. 3） The industrial structure change enhances the energy intensity, but the energy utility efficiency change lowers it. From the view of contribution to the energy consumption, the contribution of industrial structure was more than that of the energy utility efficiency in 2000-2011. 4） In 2000-2011, the comprehensive energy intensity change and hydroelectricity energy intensity change were related to all industrial structures＇ change, and the influencing factors about structure of oil energy intensity change were more than those of coal energy intensity change; from the impact degree, agricultural proportion decreased exerted an positive and greater effect on lowering the energy intensity of comprehensive energy and hydroelectricity, and industrial one did on coal and natural gas. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows： the major way to promote the coordinated development of the industrial economy and energy consumption is to optimize the industrial structure by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and low energy consumption industrial sectors and to enhance the energy utility efficiency.