Climatological and structural differences between wet and dry troughs over southern Africa in the early summer

Summary Differences in the convective potential of troughs passing over the plateau of southern Africa in the early summer are assessed using operational synoptic weather data and radiosonde time-height sections. Wet and dry trough cases are chosen on the basis of the intensity and distribution of rainfall, sharp thermodynamic changes across the plateau and the passage of a geopotential wave. Composite differences are computed and indicate a high-low geopotential anomaly in the east-west direction, and a threefold increase in precipi-table water from 15 mm in dry cases to 28 mm in wet cases. The 500 hPa structure obtained by differencing wet and dry composites is dominated by low geopotentials and cyclonic vorticity over the plateau near 25°S, 25°E, and high geopotentials and anticyclonic vorticity to the south over the oceans near 40°S, 30°E. The dipole anomaly suggests a diffluent tilted baroclinic wave in the subtropical jet stream in convective cases. A double jet streak structure in the wet events enhances upper divergence which contributes to widespread uplift in the mid-troposphere. A case study comparison highlights the importance of pre-frontal moist influx, the kinematic trigger and thermodynamic instability.With 13 Figures     

Water vapour transport from the tropical Atlantic and summer rainfall in tropical southern Africa

An empirical orthogonal functions analysis of the onshore flow of moisture along the west coast of southern Africa using NCEP-DOE AMIP II Re-analyses suggests two dominant modes of variability that are linked to (a) variations in the circulation linked with the South Atlantic anticyclone (b) the intensity of the flow that penetrates from the tropical Atlantic. The second mode, referred as the Equatorial Westerly mode, contributes the most to moisture input from the Atlantic onto the subcontinent at tropical latitudes. Substantial correlations in austral summer between the Atlantic moisture flux in the tropics and rainfall over the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin suggest the potential role played by this zonal mode of water vapour transport. Composites for austral summer months when this Equatorial Westerly mode had a particularly strong expression, show an enhanced moisture input at tropical latitudes that feeds into the deep convection occurring over the Congo basin. Sustained meridional energy fluxes result in above normal rainfall east and south of the Congo belt. During years of reduced equatorial westerly moisture flux, a deficit of available humidity occurs in the southern tropics. A concomitant eastward shift of deep convection to the southwest Indian ocean and southeastern Africa, leads to below normal rainfall over the uplands surrounding the Congo basin.     

中国南方夏半年湿期概率特征及其极值风险分析

以中国南方诸代表站近40 a(1965—2004年)夏季(5—9月)逐日降水资料为研究对象,探讨了夏半年各站湿期游程及其极端值的概率分布最佳模式。在对各站湿期游程分别验证指数分布的基础上,作耿贝尔(Gumbel)极值分布和广义帕雷托分布(GPD)拟合,进而对两者的拟合效果进行比较。并由此对湿期长度估计其不同重现期(如20 a一遇、50 a一遇和100 a一遇)的极端湿期长度的分位数概率。经K-S方法的统计检验,证明GPD分布拟合效果较好,能更加精确的模拟出中国南方夏季的极端连雨日数及其概率。     

Kinematic properties of the mean circulation over southern Africa

Summary Harmonic analysis is used to study the temporal and spatial distributions of monthly-mean zonal and meridional wind components, and their standard deviations, above southern African radiosonde stations. Thermal and mechanical influences of the underlying subcontinent have substantial impacts on the form of the flow. Below the plateau inversion mechanical effects are the predominant influence but above inversion levels winds are primarily modified by spatially-varying pressure gradients related to differential surface-atmosphere heat fluxes. The flow below is decoupled from that above the coastal inversion, as is the flow across the plateau inversion. Two independent high pressure systems influence the circulation of either side of the coastal inversion. Two standing waves may be detected above the inversion. The first, modulated on an annual cycle, is marked by a local Hadley Cell over the west coast and a local Ferrel Cell over the east coast. The second, modulated on a semi-annual cycle, is marked by meridional component reversals over the interior of the subcontinent. With these reversals there is a shift in the latitude of the subtropical jet.With 13 Figures     

An index for tropical temperate troughs over southern Africa

Strong cases of the tropical temperate troughs (TTT) that are responsible for the most of the summer rainfall over subtropical southern Africa are analyzed. An index for identifying the TTT is introduced for the first time using anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the wind. The TTT is associated with a ridge-trough-ridge wave-like structure in the lower troposphere over southern Africa and the adjoining Indian Ocean. Therefore, the index considers physical processes that occur over southern Africa, adjoining the Atlantic and Indian Oceans to depict the variability of the TTT events. Unusually strong TTT events are identified when the standard deviations of the TTT indices defined by the OLR and wind anomalies in the selected regions are above 1.5 and 0.5 respectively. After applying this criterion and filtering out consecutive events, 55 TTT events are identified during the study period of December–January–February seasons from 1980–1981 to 2009–2010. From the composite analyses of those 55 events, it is found that the TTTs evolve with suppressed (enhanced) convection over the southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to Madagascar (southern Africa). The suppressed convection is, in turn, found to be associated with the enhanced convection around Sumatra in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean. This may explain why more TTT events occur in La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. Time evolution of the canonical TTT event shows that it starts 3 days prior to the mature phase of the event, suggesting possible predictability. After reaching a matured state, the system moves east toward the Indian Ocean and decays within the subsequent couple of days. In addition, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) structure changes over Southern Africa/Madagascar during the TTT event and remains similar to climatology over other regions. The results indicate that the continental part of the ITCZ intensifies prior to the TTT event and then spreads southward following the mid-latitude influence during and after the event.     

Surface energy balance measurements at a tropical site in West Africa during the transition from dry to wet season

Summary In one of the first micrometeorological experiments at a tropical site in West Africa, direct measurements of all surface energy balance components were carried out. The experiment NIMEX-1 in Ile-Ife, Nigeria (7°33′ N, 4°33′ E), was conducted from February 19, 2004 to March 9, 2004, during the transition from the dry to the wet season. Three typical weather situations could be observed: firstly, monsoonal winds from the southwest blew over desiccated soils. Almost 100% of the available energy at the surface was transformed into sensible heat flux. Secondly, after several thundershowers, monsoonal winds swept over soils of increased water content, which led to a partitioning of the available energy corresponding to Bowen ratios between 0.3 and 0.5. Thirdly, harmattan winds advected dry dusty air from northern directions, which reduced the incoming shortwave radiation. Again, Bowen ratios range from 0.3 to 0.5 during daytime, whereas latent heat fluxes are still high during the night due to the advection of very dry air. No systematic non-closure of the surface energy balance could be found for the NIMEX-1 dataset. Unlike other experiments in Europe, most of the ogives for the sensible and latent heat flux were found to be convergent during NIMEX-1 in Ile-Ife. This can be attributed to the homogeneity of the surrounding bush, which lacks the defined borders found in agriculturally cultivated landscapes.     

A model investigation of recent ENSO impacts over southern Africa

Summary This study investigates the impacts of five recent ENSO events on southern Africa, the associated circulation anomalies and the ability of an atmospheric general circulation model (UKMO HadAM3) to represent these impacts when forced by observed sea-surface temperature (SST). It is found that the model is most successful for the 1997/8 El Niño but does less well for the 1991/2 and 2002/3 El Niños and the 1995/6 and 1999/00 La Niña events. Diagnostics from the model and NCEP re-analyses suggest that modulations to the Angola low, an important centre of tropical convection over southern Africa during austral summer, are often important for influencing the rainfall impacts of ENSO over subtropical southern Africa. Since the model has difficulty in adequately representing this regional circulation feature and its variability, it has problems in capturing ENSO rainfall impacts over southern Africa. During 1997/8, modulations to the Angola low were weak and Indian Ocean SST forcing strong and the model is relatively successful. The implications of these results for dynamical model based seasonal forecasting of the region are discussed.Current affiliation: CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India.     

干湿地表的湍流特征及其对深对流影响的大涡模拟

利用大涡模式模拟了对流边界层结构演变以及深对流触发过程.通过改变鲍恩比的敏感性试验研究不同大气初始状况下湿润和干旱下垫面湍流特征及其对深对流触发过程的影响.结果表明:干旱下垫面的混合层干而暖,厚度较大;湿润下垫面相反.由于地表感热通量对热力湍流形成的作用更大,干旱下垫面上湍流混合和夹卷作用更强,使得水汽和相当位温在边界...     

Tropical-temperate interactions over southern Africa simulated by a regional climate model

The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forced by ERA40 re-analyses, is used to examine, at regional scale, the role of key features of the local atmospheric circulation on the origin and development of Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs) representing a major contribution to South African rainfall during austral summer. A cluster analysis applied on 1971–2000 ERA40 and WRF simulated daily outgoing longwave radiation reveals for the November–February season three coherent regimes characteristic of TTTs over the region. Analyses of WRF simulated TTTs suggest that their occurrence is primarily linked with mid-latitude westerly waves and their phasing. Ensemble experiments designed for the case of austral summer 1996/1997 allow to examine the reproducibility of TTT events. The results obtained illustrate the importance of westerly waves phasing regarding the persistence of rain-producing continental TTT events. Moreover, oceanic surface conditions prevailing over the Agulhas current regions of the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) are also found to influence TTT persistence for regional experiments with an oceanic mixed layer, warmer sea surface temperatures being associated with increased moisture advection from the SWIO where latent heat release is enhanced, favoring baroclinic instability and thus sustaining convection activity locally.     

Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer

Present work uses 1979–2005 monthly observational data to study the impacts of El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. The El Niño Modoki phenomenon is characterized by the anomalously warm central equatorial Pacific flanked by anomalously cool regions in both west and east. Such zonal SST gradients result in anomalous two-cell Walker Circulation over the tropical Pacific, with a wet region in the central Pacific. There are two mid-tropospheric wave trains passing over the extratropical and subtropical North Pacific. They contain a positive phase of a Pacific-Japan pattern in the northwestern Pacific, and a positive phase of a summertime Pacific-North American pattern in the northeastern Pacific/North America region. The western North Pacific summer monsoon is enhanced, while the East Asian summer monsoon is weakened. In the South Pacific, there is a basin-wide low in the mid-latitude with enhanced Australian high and the eastern South Pacific subtropical high. Such an atmospheric circulation pattern favors a dry rim surrounding the wet central tropical Pacific. The El Niño Modoki and its climate impacts are very different from those of El Niño. Possible geographical regions for dry/wet conditions influenced by El Niño Modoki and El Niño are compared. The two phenomena also have very different temporal features. El Niño Modoki has a large decadal background while El Niño is predominated by interannual variability. Mixing-up the two different phenomena may increase the difficulty in understanding their mechanisms, climate impacts, and uncertainty in their predictions.     

Impacts of convection schemes on simulating tropical-temperate troughs over southern Africa

This study examines southern African summer rainfall and tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) simulated with three versions of an atmospheric general circulation model differing only in the convection scheme. All three versions provide realistic simulations of key aspects of the summer (November–February) rainfall, such as the spatial distribution of total rainfall and the percentage of rainfall associated with TTTs. However, one version has a large bias in the onset of the rainy season. Results from self-organizing map (SOM) analysis on simulated daily precipitation data reveals that this is because the occurrence of TTTs is underestimated in November. This model bias is not related to westerly wind shear that provides favorable conditions for the development of TTTs. Rather, it is related to excessive upper level convergence and associated subsidence over southern Africa. Furthermore, the model versions are shown to be successful in capturing the observed drier (wetter) conditions over the southern African region during El Niño (La Niña) years. The SOM analysis reveals that nodes associated with TTTs in the southern (northern) part of the domain are observed less (more) often during El Niño years, while nodes associated with TTTs occur more frequently during La Niña years. Also, nodes associated with dry conditions over southern Africa are more (less) frequently observed during El Niño (La Niña) years. The models tend to perform better for La Niña events, because they are more successful in representing the observed frequency of different synoptic patterns.     

Heat and water vapour fluxes and scalar roughness lengths over an Antarctic ice shelf

We present eddy-correlation measurements of heat and water vapour fluxes made during the Antarctic winter. The surface layer was stably stratified throughout the period of observation and sensible heat fluxes were always directed downwards. However, both upward and downward water vapour fluxes were observed. Their magnitude was generally small and the latent heat flux was not a significant fraction of the surface energy budget. The variation of heat and water vapour fluxes with stability is well described by Monin-Obukhov similarity theory but the scalar roughness lengths for heat and water vapour appear to be much larger than the momentum roughness length. Possible explanations of this effect are discussed.     

Sea level pressure patterns associated with dry or wet monthly rainfall conditions in Turkey

Summary  Monthly rainfall totals at 7 stations across Turkey and sea level pressure (SLP) in 16 grid points in the region delimited by the 20° E and 50° E longitudes and by the 30° N and 45° N latitudes were analysed. Data were available for a period longer than sixty years. The standard deviations of SLP at each grid point for each month, were calculated and mapped. For each station, months were defined as dry or wet according to their z scores: ≤ −1.0 or ≥ 1.0 respectively. Maps showing the SLP z scores of the corresponding dry or wet months for each station were prepared. The maps, enable to distinguish between SLP patterns associated with dry or wet conditions. Furthermore, correlations between monthly rainfall in each of the stations and SLP at each grid point were performed. The correlation coefficients were mapped. (a) The variability of the SLP decreases from the Balkans towards the Arabian Peninsula and is much larger in winter as compared with summer. (b) Relationship between rainfall in Turkey and the regional SLP is large in winter and non existing in summer. (c) Pressure patterns associated with dry conditions, show usually positive SLP departures, whereas, pressure patterns associated with wet conditions show usually negative SLP departures. (d) There is a great resemblance between pressure patterns associated with wet conditions and correlation maps of the same months. Received September 4, 2000 Revised January 15, 2001