Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.     

京津唐地区地震灾害和危险性评估

利用我国京津唐地区500年以来记录较完整的历史地震烈度资料,尝试进行了地震灾害与危险性分析,以提供制定抗震设防基本参数或烈度的参考.首先,我们用ArcGIS把这些历史烈度资料进行了数字化,并把研究区分成 0.1°×0.1°的小方格.然后,我们对烈度资料进行了统计分析,得到每个小方格的地震烈度-频度关系（即灾害曲线）.最后,基于地震发生遵从泊松分布的假定,利用灾害曲线估算了京津唐地区的地震风险,即在未来一段时间内(如 50年)该地区遭受某一地震烈度(如Ⅶ,Ⅷ,或Ⅸ度)的超越概率.同时,我们还估算了50年超越概率10%所对应的地震烈度,如：北京为Ⅸ,天津为Ⅸ,唐山为≥Ⅸ,保定为Ⅷ,廊坊为Ⅸ.研究结果表明,京津唐地区有较高的地震危险性,现行的抗震设防要求可能偏低.     

保定市设计地震动参数的研究

本文根据保定市及周围地区的地震地质环境，在地震危险性分析的基础上，采用等效线性一维波动方程进行土层的地震反应分析。给出50年超越概率63％、10％、2％基岩和地面的水平向峰值加速度、反应谱（场址基本烈度Ⅶ度）和地震影响系数最大值。该结果为抗震设计提供了可靠依据，具有应用价值。     

Seismic hazard assessment in the megacity of Blida (Algeria) and its surrounding regions using parametric-historic procedure

The region of Blida is characterized by a relatively high seismic activity, pointed especially during the past two centuries. Indeed, it experienced a significant number of destructive earthquakes such as the earthquakes of March 2, 1825 and January 2, 1867, with intensity of X and IX, respectively. This study aims to investigate potential seismic hazard in Blida city and its surrounding regions. For this purpose, a typical seismic catalog was compiled using historical macroseismic events that occurred over a period of a few hundred years, and the recent instrumental seismicity dating back to 1900. The parametric-historic procedure introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) was applied to assess seismic hazard in the study region. It is adapted to deal with incomplete catalogs and does not use any subjective delineation of active seismic zones. Because of the lack of recorded strong motion data, three ground prediction models have been considered, as they seem the most adapted to the seismicity of the study region. Results are presented as peak ground acceleration (PGA) seismic hazard maps, showing expected peak accelerations with 10% probability of exceedance in 50-year period. As the most significant result, hot spot regions with high PGA values are mapped. For example, a PGA of 0.44 g has been found in a small geographical area centered on Blida city.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in harbor sediments from Sea Lots, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in nearshore marine surficial sediments from three locations in Trinidad. Sediments were sampled at Sea Lots on the west coast, in south Port-of-Spain Harbor, south of Sea Lots at Caroni Lagoon National Park, and on Trinidad’s east coast at Manzanilla. Total PCB concentrations in Sea Lots sediments ranged from 62 to 601 ng/g (dry weight {dw}), which was higher than at Caroni and Manzanilla, 13 and 8 ng/g dw, respectively. Total OCP concentrations at Sea Lots were ranged from 44.5 to 145 ng/g dw, compared with 13.1 and 23.8 n/g (dw), for Caroni and Manzanilla respectively. The concentrations of PCBs and of some OCPs in sediments from Sea Lots were above the Canadian interim sediment quality guidelines. To date, this data is the first report on the levels of PCBs and other organochlorine compounds from Trinidad and Tobago.     

Accelerograph calibration and accelerogram correction

When measured earthquake accelerations are used as a basis for structural design, then acceleration errors of a few per cent are usually acceptable. However a number of tasks in structural design, and in earthquake engineering research, require measured accelerations with errors limited to a few parts per thousand. Such tasks include those which call for the calculation of angular accelerations, the comparison of acceleration spectra or the calculation of relative displacement Accurate accelerations may be obtained from existing accelerographs by applying the results of an accurate static calibration to an accelerogram, and then applying corrections for the effects of accelerometer resonance. This paper concentrates attention on the correction of static errors, including sensing direction errors and cross-axis interaction errors. For completeness there is a brief discussion of dynamic errors, which depend on accelerometer periods and dampings. It is concluded that earthquake accelerations may be obtained with errors of not much more than 0·001 g, the resolution of a typical accelerograph, at least for periods greater than 0·2 sec. When the accelerations have shorter periods, larger errors may arise due to the limited accuracy of the corrections for dynamic errors The static calibration of accelerographs, and the corresponding record correction procedures, are illustrated by application to the M.O.2 accelerograph.     

The characteristics and dynamics of tar pollution on the beaches of Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago beaches were periodically sampled for tar between July 1980 and September 1981. This project was carried out by the Institute of Marine Affairs in cooperation with the United Nations. The Caribbean coasts of both islands were almost pristine, whereas pollution on the Atlantic coast beaches was comparable to that of other coasts along major tanker routes. The source of high tar concentrations on the Atlantic coasts may be attributed to the residues from tanker bilge cleanings, which are carried along the South Equatorial Current, eventually to strand on the islands' beaches. In the dry season (January to April) north-westerly currents and north-easterly winds prevail and more tar strands on Trinidad than on Tobago. In the wet season (June to November), however, when currents are more northerly and south-easterly wind prevail, the reverse situation holds and more tar strands on Tobago.     

Simulations of Seismic Hazard for the Pacific Northwest of the United States from Earthquakes Associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone

-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing�CTianjin�CTangshan, China, Area

Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing?CTianjin?CTangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1?×?0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity?Cfrequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I????7, 8, or 9 in 50?years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50?years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615–2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.     

Gravity and magnetic field characteristics and hydrocarbon prospects of the Tobago Basin

The Tobago Basin, which is located offshore northern Venezuela with a southern margin close to Trinidad and Tobago, has an area of approximately 59,600 km². The Tobago Basin has relatively favourable hydrocarbon prospects, and to date, exploration work has mainly concentrated on small areas of the southwestern portion of the basin. To conduct a comprehensive study of the structural framework of the basin and the characteristics of the basement in order to identify prospective zones for hydrocarbon exploration, shipborne‐measured and satellite‐measured gravity data, shipborne‐measured magnetic data, and aeromagnetic survey data were analysed. A regularisation filtering method was used to separate and obtain regional and residual gravity and magnetic anomalies. Directional gradients of gravity and magnetic anomalies and the total horizontal gradient and vertical second derivative of gravity anomalies were employed to extract information about fault structures. Regression analysis methods were used to determine the basement depth. The geological significance of the gravity and magnetic fields was examined, the structural framework of the basin was assessed, the basement depth was estimated, and favourable hydrocarbon exploration prospects within the basin were identified. The results show that the Tobago Basin contains complex structures consisting mainly of two groups of faults trending in northeasterly and northwesterly directions and that the major northeasterly trending faults control the main structural configuration and depositional system within the basin. The basement of the Tobago Basin has deep rises and falls. It can be divided into the following four secondary tectonic units: the western sub‐basin, the central uplift area, the southern sub‐basin, and the northeastern sub‐basin. The central uplift area and northeastern sub‐basin are most likely to have developed hydrocarbon accumulations and should be targeted for further exploration.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis Using the Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation Technique for Chennai City

Conventional method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the Cornell–McGuire approach requires identification of homogeneous source zones as the first step. This criterion brings along many issues and, hence, several alternative methods to hazard estimation have come up in the last few years. Methods such as zoneless or zone-free methods, modelling of earth’s crust using numerical methods with finite element analysis, have been proposed. Delineating a homogeneous source zone in regions of distributed seismicity and/or diffused seismicity is rather a difficult task. In this study, the zone-free method using the adaptive kernel technique to hazard estimation is explored for regions having distributed and diffused seismicity. Chennai city is in such a region with low to moderate seismicity so it has been used as a case study. The adaptive kernel technique is statistically superior to the fixed kernel technique primarily because the bandwidth of the kernel is varied spatially depending on the clustering or sparseness of the epicentres. Although the fixed kernel technique has proven to work well in general density estimation cases, it fails to perform in the case of multimodal and long tail distributions. In such situations, the adaptive kernel technique serves the purpose and is more relevant in earthquake engineering as the activity rate probability density surface is multimodal in nature. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) obtained from all the three approaches (i.e., the Cornell–McGuire approach, fixed kernel and adaptive kernel techniques) for 10% probability of exceedance in 50?years is around 0.087?g. The uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are also provided for different structural periods.     

Assessment of seismic hazard of roller compacted concrete dam site in Gilgit-Baltistan of northern Pakistan

The proposed site of the Diamer Bhasha Dam in northern Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic zone with intensive seismicity, which makes it necessary for seismic hazard analysis(SHA). Deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been used for SHA of the dam site. The Main Mantle Thrust(MMT), Main Karakaram Thrust(MKT), Raikot-Sassi Fault(RKSF) and Kohistan Fault(KF) have been considered as major seismic sources, all of which can create maximum ground shaking with maximum potential earthquake(MPE). Deterministically estimated MPE for magnitudes of 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, and 7.1 can be produced from MMT, MKT, RKSF and KF, respectively. The corresponding peak ground accelerations(PGA) of 0.07, 0.11, 0.13 and 0.05 g can also be generated from these earthquakes, respectively. The deterministic analysis predicts a so-called floating earthquake as a MPE of magnitude = 7.1 as close as 10 km away from the site. The corresponding PGA was computed as 0.38 g for a maximum design earthquake at the project site. However, the probabilistic analysis revealed that the PGA with 50% probability of exceedance in 100 years is 0.18 g. Thus, this PGA value related to the operational basis earthquake(OBE) is suggested for the design of this project with shear wave velocity(V_(s30)) equal to 760 m/s under dense soil and soft rock conditions.     

Seismic risk analysis for Northern Iraq

In this study the seismic risks of northern Iraq have been evaluated by a probabilistic method. The data contain about 500 earthquakes which occurred between 1840 and 1978. The epicentral locations and magnitudes of the included earthquakes have been presented. A linear relationship between magnitude and frequency has been assumed. The attenuation of intensities has been presented as a function of magnitude and epicentral distance. The seismic risk has been calculated for 225 points of the analysed area. The equiseismal maps related to a certain risk level have been plotted by using these point values of intensities, and assuming a linear variation between the points. The significance of the standard deviation of the attenuation law and the strict lower bound intensity has been investigated by sensitivity analyses. The intensity contours related to the annual return period of 50, 100 and 200 years have been presented, and also the intensity contours with an occurrence probability of 10 per cent during 50, 100 and 200 years have been drawn.     

基于Newmark模型的概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法研究

本文以天水地区为研究区,结合地震潜在震源区模型和Newmark位移预测方程,采用概率地震危险性分析方法,计算了该地区50年超越概率10%水平下的Newmark位移。同时,根据天水地区50年超越概率10%下的阿里亚斯烈度,并结合Newmark位移与阿里亚斯烈度的关系式,计算了天水地区在遭受50年超越概率10%下的阿里亚斯烈度影响时,潜在滑坡体产生的Newmark位移分布。通过比较上述两种方法得到的天水地区不同Newmark位移的分布特征,本文认为二者虽然存在较大差异,但其空间分布特征均能反映天水地区每个场点处的相对滑坡危险性。对滑坡危险性水平进行分区的结果显示,天水地区60%以上的区域具有高地震滑坡危险性,50%以上的区域具有甚高地震滑坡危险性。本文的研究结果可以作为天水地区地震危险性及风险评估的参考资料,也可以作为天水地区城市规划、土地使用规划、地震应急准备以及其它公共政策制定的参考资料。      

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MAPPING IN THE MAGHREB COUNTRIES: ALGERIA,MOROCCO, TUNISIA

This paper presents new seismic hazard maps of the Maghreb countries by using newly re-evaluated earthquake data catalogue in the region under consideration. For this region, there is a clear need to use common procedure and data bases through the whole Maghreb region so that seismic hazard assessments are consistent from country to country. An effort is made to assess the seismic hazard and to construct earthquake hazard maps in terms of expected horizontal and vertical PGA for a 10 per cent chance of being exceeded, expected intensity (MSK), all in an economic life time of 50 and 100 years. Also, a return period seismic hazard map for PGA≥140cm/s² is presented. For engineering applications, earthquake hazard maps for structures with different periods are also constructed.     

变电站电气设备分级抗震设防原则研究

目前我国对电气设备抗震级别的规定低于国际上其他标准的要求,并且设防标准的确定考虑设防烈度、场地条件、设计地震分组等多种组合条件,不利于方便快捷地判断设备的抗震级别。通过对比国内外相关规范中对电气设备抗震设防级别的规定,分析电气设备进行分级抗震设防的优势,建议对我国的电气设备进行分级抗震设防。采用典型电气设备抗震可靠度指标作为参数,对建议的电气设备的抗震设防等级进行划分,提出高、中、低三等级原则。     

Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan

Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respec-tively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.     

巴基斯坦沿海地区地震危险性分析

通过确定性和概率性方法，对发展迅速的巴基斯坦沿海地区进行了地震危险性评估．根据该地区的地震构造和地质条件，确定了5个地震区域的11个断层作为该地区的潜在震源，计算了每个潜在震源的最大可能震级．根据与之相关震源的最大可信震级，计算了7个沿海城市的峰值加速度（PGA）．瓜达尔（Gwadar）和奥尔马腊（Ormara）的峰值加速度分别为0.21和0.25 g，处于地震危险性水平较高的地区；杜尔伯德（Turbat）和卡拉奇（Karachi）位于地震危险性水平较低的地区，峰值加速度小于0.1 g．同时，分别绘制了50年和100年超越概率为10％的PGA区划图，区划图的分区间隔为0.05 g．