Seasonal and interannual evolution of the mixed layer in the Antarctic Zone south of Tasmania

Seasonal and interannual variations of the mixed layer properties in the Antarctic Zone (AZ) south of Tasmania are described using 7 WOCE/SR3 CTD sections and 8 years of summertime SURVOSTRAL XBT and thermosalinograph measurements between Tasmania and Antarctica. The AZ, which extends from the Polar Front (PF) to the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF), is characterized by a 150 m deep layer of cold Winter Water (WW) overlayed in summer by warmer, fresher water mass known as Antarctic Surface Water (AASW). South of Tasmania, two branches of the PF divide the AZ into northern and southern zones with distinct water properties and variability. In the northern AZ (between the northern and southern branches of the PF), the mixed layer depth (MLD) is fairly constant in latitude, being 150 m deep in winter and around 40–60 m in summer. In the southern AZ, the winter MLD decreases from 150 m at the S-PF to 80 m at the SACCF and from 60 to 35 m in summer. Shallower mixed layers in the AZ-S are due to the decrease in the wind speed and stronger upwelling near the Antarctic Divergence. The WW MLD oscillates by ±15 m around its mean value and modest interannual changes are driven by winter wind stress anomalies.The mixed layer is on annual average 1.7 °C warmer, 0.06 fresher and 0.2 kg m⁻³ lighter in the northern AZ than in the southern AZ. The Levitus (1998) climatology is in agreement with the observed mean summer mixed layer temperature and salinity along the SURVOSTRAL line but underestimates the MLD by 10–20 m. The winter MLD in the climatology is also closed to that observed, but is 0.15 saltier than the observations along the AZ-N of the SR3 line. MLD, temperature and density show a strong seasonal cycle through the AZ while the mixed layer salinity is nearly constant throughout the year. During winter, the AZ MLD is associated with a halocline while during summer it coincides with a thermocline.Interannual variability of the AZ summer mixed layer is partly influenced by large scale processes such as the circumpolar wave which produces a warm anomaly during the summer 1996–1997, and partly by local mechanisms such as the retroflection of the S-PF which introduces cold water across the AZ-N.     

南海混合层深度的季节和年际变化特征

利用1871-2008年SODA资料和月平均的Levitus资料计算了南海混合层深度(MLD)的季节及年际变化特征.资料分析表明:季风通过流场调整对南海MLD的时空分布特征有显著的影响.南海MLD的距平变化总体上呈上升趋势,南海南部MLD的距平变化趋势和北部的有显著差异,特别在1955年后北部整体呈下降趋势而南部呈上升趋势,二者的显著周期北部为2-3年,南部与整个区域平均的基本相似有2-6年的显著周期.SOI指数对滞后的南海各个区域有较好的相关性.EOF分析表明第一模态整体呈单极型最大变率分布在南海南部,由南往北逐渐减小显著周期2-3年变化为主;第二模态呈偶极子型,显著周期以2-5年变化为主.回归分析表明南海南部深水区域呈现增深的趋势,而吕宋海峡至南海北部陆架区呈变浅趋势,滑动t检验表明南海MLD有6个显著的突变年份.     

A study of the mixed layer of the South China Sea based on the multiple linear regression

Multiple linear regression(MLR) method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux(NHF),the net freshwater flux(NFF) and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth(MLD) of the South China Sea(SCS) based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) dataset.The spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD,the buoyancy flux(combining the NHF and the NFF) and the wind stress of the SCS were presented.Then using an oceanic vertical mixing model,the MLD after a certain time under the same initial conditions but various pairs of boundary conditions(the three factors) was simulated.Applying the MLR method to the results,regression equations which modeling the relationship between the simulated MLD and the three factors were calculated.The equations indicate that when the NHF was negative,it was the primary driver of the mixed layer deepening;and when the NHF was positive,the wind stress played a more important role than that of the NHF while the NFF had the least effect.When the NHF was positive,the relative quantitative effects of the wind stress,the NHF,and the NFF were about 10,6 and 2.The above conclusions were applied to explaining the spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD in the SCS and thus proved to be valid.     

南海混合层近惯性能通量的时空变化

On the basis of the QSCAT/NCEP blended wind data and simple ocean data assimilation(SODA), the wind-induced near-inertial energy flux(NIEF) in the mixed layer of the South China Sea(SCS) is estimated by a slab model, and the model results are verified by observational data near the Xisha Islands in the SCS. Then, the spatial and temporal variations of the NIEF in the SCS are analyzed. It is found that, the monthly mean NIEF exhibits obvious spatial and temporal variabilities, i.e., it is large west of Luzon Island all the year, east of the Indo-China Peninsula all the year except in spring, and in the northern SCS from May to September. The large monthly mean NIEF in the first two zones may be affected by the large local wind stress curl whilst that in the last zone is probably due to the shallow mixed layer depth. Moreover, the monthly mean NIEF is relatively large in summer and autumn due to the passage of typhoons. The spatial mean NIEF in the mixed layer of the SCS is estimated to be about 1.25 m W/m2 and the total wind energy input from wind is approximately 4.4 GW. Furthermore, the interannual variability of the spatial monthly mean NIEF and the Ni?o3.4 index are negatively correlated.     

Simulation and future projection of the mixed layer depth and subduction process in the subtropical Southeast Pacific

The present climate simulation and future projection of the mixed layer depth(MLD) and subduction process in the subtropical Southeast Pacific are investigated based on the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory earth system model(GFDL-ESM2 M). The MLD deepens from May and reaches its maximum(>160 m) near(24°S,104°W) in September in the historical simulation. The MLD spatial pattern in September is non-uniform in the present climate, which shows three characteristics:(1) the deep MLD extends f...     

Response of the mixed layer depth and subduction rate in the subtropical Northeast Pacific to global warming

The response of the mixed layer depth(MLD) and subduction rate in the subtropical Northeast Pacific to global warming is investigated based on 9 CMIP5 models. Compared with the present climate in the 9 models, the response of the MLD in the subtropical Northeast Pacific to the increased radiation forcing is spatially nonuniform, with the maximum shoaling about 50 m in the ensemble mean result. The inter-model differences of MLD change are non-negligible, which depend on the various dominated mechanisms. On the north of the MLD front, MLD shallows largely and is influenced by Ekman pumping, heat flux, and upper-ocean cold advection changes. On the south of the MLD front, MLD changes a little in the warmer climate, which is mainly due to the upper-ocean warm advection change. As a result, the MLD front intensity weakens obviously from 0.24 m/km to0.15 m/km(about 33.9%) in the ensemble mean, not only due to the maximum of MLD shoaling but also dependent on the MLD non-uniform spatial variability. The spatially non-uniform decrease of the subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction reduction(about 85% in ensemble mean) due to the significant weakening of the MLD front. This research indicates that the ocean advection change impacts the MLD spatially non-uniform change greatly, and then plays an important role in the response of the MLD front and the subduction process to global warming.     

副热带东北太平洋混合层深度及其对潜沉的影响

The present climate simulations of the mixed layer depth(MLD) and the subduction rate in the subtropical Northeast Pacific are investigated based on nine of the CMIP5 models. Compared with the observation data,spatial patterns of the MLD and the subduction rate are well simulated in these models. The spatial pattern of the MLD is nonuniform, with a local maximum MLD(140 m) region centered at(28°N, 135°W) in late winter. The nonuniform MLD pattern causes a strong MLD front on the south of the MLD maximum region, controls the lateral induction rate pattern, and then decides the nonuniform distribution of the subduction rate. Due to the inter-regional difference of the MLD, we divide this area into two regions. The relatively uniform Ekman pumping has little effect on the nonuniform subduction spatial pattern, though it is nearly equal to the lateral induction in values. In the south region, the northward warm Ekman advection(–1.75×10~(–7) K/s) controls the ocean horizontal temperature advection(–0.85×10~(–7) K/s), and prevents the deepening of the MLD. In the ensemble mean, the contribution of the ocean advection to the MLD is about –29.0 m/month, offsetting the sea surface net heat flux contribution(33.9 m/month). While in the north region, the southward cold advection deepens the MLD(21.4 m/month) as similar as the heat flux(30.4 m/month). In conclusion, the nonuniform MLD pattern is dominated by the nonuniform ocean horizontal temperature advection. This new finding indicates that the upper ocean current play an important role in the variability of the winter MLD and the subduction rate.     

夏末秋初南海18°N断面混合层结构特征分析

基于2004-2012年8-9月份南海北部开放航次期间18°N断面的温盐深仪(Conductance Temperature Depth,CTD)观测资料,分析了夏末秋初沿18°N断面的温度、盐度和混合层结构特征及其影响因素。研究发现:南海18°N断面的温度、盐度和混合层特征具有显著的年际变化,并且混合层的深度和其倾斜程度与风速及风驱动的Ekman平流有关,而所有航次18°N断面东侧均出现等温线、等盐线下凹现象,这与夏末秋初吕宋岛西侧海域存在一个反气旋式涡旋活动有关。     

热力学效应及斯托克斯漂流对混合层影响的研究

本文通过理想化的外部强迫以及海洋站点实测数据驱动普林斯顿海洋模式来研究海洋热力学效应和斯托克斯漂流对上混合层数值模拟的影响。在Mellor-Yamada湍流闭合方案中,经常出现夏季海表面温度偏暖和混合层深度偏浅的模拟误差。实验表明,斯托克斯漂流在冬季和夏季均能增强湍流动能,加深混合层深度。这种效应可以改善夏季的模拟结果,但与观测数据相比,将增大冬季混合层深度的模拟误差。斯托克斯漂流可以通过增强湍动能来加深混合层深度。结果表明,将斯托克斯漂流与冷皮层和暖层对上部混合层的热效应相结合,可以正确地模拟混合层深度。在夏季,海洋冷皮层和暖层通过“阻挡结构”和双温跃层结构模拟出更真实的上混合层变化。在冬季,海洋热力学效应通过增强上层海洋层结平衡了斯托克斯漂流的影响,并且由斯托克斯漂流引起的过度混合被校正。     

不同混合层深度算法的全球适用性对比分析

混合层深度是研究海洋上层动力过程及海气相互作用的一个至关重要的物理量,准确估算混合层深度对上层海洋动力学和热力学的深入研究具有重要的科学意义。本文基于Argo实时观测剖面数据,分海域、分季节对比分析了目前常用的几种混合层深度算法的异同与优缺点。结果表明,理论上最大角度法的精确度最高,曲率法其次,然后是阈值法和最优线性拟合法。最大角度法和曲率法的结果比较接近,实测数据表明曲率法的时空适用性更广。阈值法、最优线性拟合法分别受梯度阈值和密度（或温度）梯度变化的制约,其计算的混合层深度相对较浅。各种算法的差异性随着季节跃层的增强而逐渐减小,且北半球的差异小于南半球。     

南海混合层深度的季节变化及年际变化特征

通过分析新的SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)资料,得到南海混合层时空场的分布特征,剖析了南海混合层深度的季节及年际变化特征。资料分析表明:南海混合层存在着显著的季节和年际变化,且两者的均方差分布存在一定的差异。在季节变化中,冬季混合层在南海北部及西北陆架区深,在南海南部及吕宋冷涡处浅;夏季混合层在南海西北部浅,东南深。南海这种混合层深度分布特征除了与热通量的季节变化有关外,在相当大的程度上与季风引起的Ekman输送及Ekman抽吸有关。混合层深度距平场EOF(Empirical Othorgnal Function)第一模和第二模时间变化的主信号均为周期的年际变化信号,其中第一模态约为3 a,第二模态则有1.8,2.4和4.3 a的3个显著周期。EOF第一模显示混合层深度在南海东南部年际变化幅度最大,且滞后Nino3指数7个月时相关性最好(相关系数为0.422 3);EOF第二模显示在南海南部和北部混合层深度呈反位相变化。     

Temporal variability of winter mixed layer in the mid-to high-latitude North Pacific

Temperature and salinity data from 2001 through 2005 from Argo profiling floats have been analyzed to examine the time evolution of the mixed layer depth (MLD) and density in the late fall to early spring in mid to high latitudes of the North Pacific. To examine MLD variations on various time scales from several days to seasonal, relatively small criteria (0.03 kg m⁻³ in density and 0.2°C in temperature) are used to determine MLD. Our analysis emphasizes that maximum MLD in some regions occurs much earlier than expected. We also observe systematic differences in timing between maximum mixed layer depth and density. Specifically, in the formation regions of the Subtropical and Central Mode Waters and in the Bering Sea, where the winter mixed layer is deep, MLD reaches its maximum in late winter (February and March), as expected. In the eastern subarctic North Pacific, however, the shallow, strong, permanent halocline prevents the mixed layer from deepening after early January, resulting in a range of timings of maximum MLD between January and April. In the southern subtropics from 20° to 30°N, where the winter mixed layer is relatively shallow, MLD reaches a maximum even earlier in December–January. In each region, MLD fluctuates on short time scales as it increases from late fall through early winter. Corresponding to this short-term variation, maximum MLD almost always occurs 0 to 100 days earlier than maximum mixed layer density in all regions.     

Simulation of the ocean surface mixed layer under the wave breaking

A one-dimensional mixed-layer model, including a Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme, was implemented to investigate the dynamical and thermal structures of the ocean surface mixed layer in the northern South China Sea. The turbulent kinetic energy released through wave breaking was incorporated into the model as a source of energy at the ocean surface, and the influence of the breaking waves on the mixed layer was studied. The numerical simulations show that the simulated SST is overestimated in summer without the breaking waves. However, the cooler SST is simulated when the effect of the breaking waves is considered, the corresponding discrepancy with the observed data decreases up to 20% and the MLD calculated averagely deepens 3.8 m. Owing to the wave-enhanced turbulence mixing in the summertime, the stratification at the bottom of the mixed layer was modified and the temperature gradient spread throughout the whole thermocline compared with the concentrated distribution without wave breaking.     

三维斜压陆架海模式的应用: 南海上混合层的季节变化

从一个三维斜压陆架海模式的数值模拟结果来揭示南海上混合层的季节变化规律,结果表明:(1)在南海北部上混合层的厚度(即混合层的下界深度)具有明显的季节性变化,与在南海南部上混合层的变化明显不同,前者的混合强度的变化幅度远比后者的要大得多.(2)在中南半岛中部东岸外海的西边界区域内,由于经常受冷涡控制,下层冷水涌升,上层水体层化显着,使得该海区垂直混合减弱.(3)在一些气旋(反气旋)涡的边缘,混合层厚度等值线分布密集,且水平梯度较大.(4)南海上混合层的厚度分布特征与上层环流的分布格局之间存在着较好的地转调整关系.     

Interannual variability of mixed layer depth and heat storage of upper layer in the tropical Pacific Ocean

By using the upper layer data(downloaded from the web of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography ),the interannual variability of the heat storage of upper layer(from surface to 400 m depth) and the mixed layer depth in the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated. The abnormal signal of the warm event comes from the central and west Pacific Ocean, whereas it is regarded that the abnormal signal of the warm event comes from the east Pacific Ocean in the popular viewpoint. From the viewpoint on the evolution of the interannual variability of the mixed layer depth and the heat storage of the whole upper layer, the difference between the two types of E1Nino is so small that it can be neglected. During these two E1Nino/La Nina events( 1972/1973 and 1997/1998), other than the case of the heat storage or for the mixed layer depth, the abnormal signal propagates from the central and west Pacific Ocean to the east usually by the path along the equator whereas the abnormal signal propagates from the east to the west by the path northern to the equator. For the interannual variability, the evolution of the mixed layer depth corresponds to that of the heat storage in the upper layer very well. This is quite different from the evolution of seasonality.     

一种海洋混合层深度的智能识别方法研究

文章提出了一种识别混合层深度的人工智能方法。该方法在温度(密度)与压强(或深度)间建立线性模型, 并且将其系数和方差做成一组表征廓线特征的统计量。初始时为模型设定一个主观的先验分布, 在一个自海表向下移动的窗口内通过贝叶斯链式法则和最小描述长度原理学习新数据, 得到系数均值的最大后验概率估计。用F-检验识别系数发生突变的位置, 以此确定混合层的存在性及其深度。通过2017年2月太平洋海域的地转海洋学实时观测阵(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography, ARGO)数据进行测试, 并且以质量因子(Quality Index, QI)值作为判断识别混合层深度结果准确性的依据, 发现该方法相比于梯度法、阈值法、混合法、相对变化法、最大角度法和最优线性插值法在识别结果上具备更大的QI值。表明该方法能够准确识别混合层深度。     

Transient Eastern Mediterranean deep waters in response to the massive dense-water output of the Aegean Sea in the 1990s

We present a detailed account of the changing hydrography and the large-scale circulation of the deep waters of the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) that resulted from the unique, high-volume influx of dense waters from the Aegean Sea during the 1990s, and of the changes within the Aegean that initiated the event, the so-called ‘Eastern Mediterranean Transient’ (EMT). The analysis uses repeated hydrographic and transient tracer surveys of the EMed in 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2001/2002, hydrographic time series in the southern Aegean and southern Adriatic Seas, and further scattered data. Aegean outflow averaged nearly 3 × 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ between mid-1992 and late 1994, and was largest during 1993, when south and west of Crete Aegean-influenced deep waters extended upwards to 400 m depth. EMT-related Aegean outflow prior to 1992, confined to the region around Crete and to 1800 m depth-wise, amounted to about 3% of the total outflow. Outflow after 1994 up to 2001/2002, derived from the increasing inventory of the tracer CFC-12, contributed 20% to the total, of 2.8 × 10¹⁴ m³. Densities in the southern Aegean Sea deep waters rose by 0.2 kg/m³ between 1987 and 1993, and decreased more slowly thereafter. The Aegean waters delivered via the principal exit pathway in Kasos Strait, east of Crete, propagated westward along the Cretan slope, such that in 1995 the highest densities were observed in the Hellenic Trench west of Crete. Aegean-influenced waters also crossed the East Mediterranean Ridge south of Crete and from there expanded eastward into the southeastern Levantine Sea. Transfer into the Ionian mostly followed the Hellenic Trench, largely up to the trench’s northern end at about 37°N. From there the waters spread further west while mixing with the resident waters. Additional transfer occurred through the Herodotus Trough in the south. Levantine waters after 1994 consistently showed temperature–salinity (T–S) inversions in roughly 1000–1700 m depth, with amplitudes decreasing in time. The T–S distributions in the Ionian Sea were more diverse, one cause being added Aegean outflow of relatively lower density through the Antikithira Strait west of Crete. Spreading of the Aegean-influenced waters was quite swift, such that by early 1995 the entire EMed was affected. and strong mixing is indicated by near-linear T–S relationships observed in various places. Referenced to 2000 and 3000 dbar, the highest Aegean-generated densities observed during the event equaled those generated by Adriatic Sea outflow in the northern Ionian Sea prior to the EMT. A precarious balance between the two dense-water source areas is thus indicated. A feedback is proposed which helped triggering the change from a dominating Adriatic source to the Aegean source, but at the same time supported the previous long-year dominance of the Adriatic. The EMed deep waters will remain transient for decades to come.     

上混合中剪切湍流和朗缪尔环流动力特征差异

Large eddy simulation(LES) is used to investigate contrasting dynamic characteristics of shear turbulence(ST)and Langmuir circulation(LC) in the surface mixed layer(SML). ST is usually induced by wind forcing in SML. LC can be driven by wave-current interaction that includes the roles of wind, wave and vortex forcing. The LES results show that LC suppresses the horizontal velocity and greatly modifies the downwind velocity profile, but increases the vertical velocity. The strong downwelling jets of LC accelerate and increase the downward transport of energy as compared to ST. The vertical eddy viscosity Km of LC is much larger than that of ST. Strong mixing induced by LC has two locations. They are located in the 2ds–3ds(Stokes depth scale) and the lower layer of the SML,respectively. Its value and position change periodically with time. In contrast, maximum Km induced by ST is located in the middle depth of the SML. The turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) generated by LC is larger than that by ST. The differences in vertical distributions of TKE and Km are evident. Therefore, the parameterization of LC cannot be solely based on TKE. For deep SML, the convection of large-scale eddies in LC plays a main role in downward transport of energy and LC can induce stronger velocity shear(S2) near the SML base. In addition, the large-scale eddies and S2 induced by LC is changing all the time, which needs to be fully considered in the parameterization of LC.     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.