Internal fluctuations in an ocean-atmosphere box model with sea-ice

 An ocean-atmosphere box model is presented where the polar ocean box is of variable extent and may be covered with ice. Ice thickness and temperature are predicted on the basis of a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. The stimulation of internal variability by sea-ice is explored. Experiments are conducted with the full model but also with model versions where atmospheric and oceanic transport processes are partly suppressed. Moreover, reduced versions of the sea-ice model are tested. Some of the resulting climate states exhibit little internal variability and a steady growth of ice thickness. However, a wide range of internal fluctuations is generated in other runs. These include quasiperiodic oscillations where ice-free phases alternate with ice-covered states and chaotic behaviour. It is a key result that the choice of the sea-ice model has a profound impact on the fluctuations. Received: 23 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 May 1999     

A two-dimensional zonally averaged ocean carbon cycle model

An ocean carbon cycle model driven by a constant flow field produced by a two-dimensional thermohaline circu-lation model is developed. Assuming that the biogenic carbon in the oceans is in a dynamic equilibrium, the inorganic carbon cycle is investigated. Before the oceanic uptake of CO2 is carried out, the investigation of 14C distributions in the oceans, including natural and bomb-produced 14C, is conducted by using different values of the exchange coefficient of CO2 for different flow fields (different vertical diffusivities) to test the performance of the model. The suitable values of the exchange coefficient and vertical diffusivities are chosen for the carbon cycle model. Under the forcing of given preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration of 280 ppmv, the carbon cycle model is integrated for seven thousand years to reach a steady state. For the human perturbation, two methods including the prescribed at-mospheric pCO2 and prescribed industrial emissions are used in this work. The results from the prescribed atmospher-ic pCO2 show that the oceans take up 36% of carbon dioxide released by human activities for the period of 1980-1989, while the results from the prescribed industrial emission rates show that the oceans take up 34% of car-bon dioxide emitted by industrial sources for the same period. By using the simple method of subtracting industrial emission rate from the total atmosphere+ocean accumulating rate, it can be deduced that before industrial revolution a non-industrial source exists, while after 1940 an extra sink is needed, and that a total non-industrial source of 45 GtC is obtained for the period of 1790-1990.     

A high-order compact scheme with square-conservativity

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海洋表层流模式和月尺度海气耦合试验

本文第一部分设计了一个海洋表层流模式，较成功地模拟出冬夏季海表层中的大尺度洋流和海面高度第二部分是月时间尺度的海气耦合试验，将海表层洋流模式和球带范围的大气模式相耦合，用数值试验讨论了洋流和海气耦合方式对模拟结果的影响。     

高性能计算系统性能评测方法及其应用

为满足国家级气象数值模式业务系统对高性能计算资源不断增长的需求,提供规模更大、性能更优的高性能计算支撑平台,在高性能计算系统引进工作中开展了基于气象数值模式应用的高性能计算系统性能评测技术研究。该文将行业标准与实际业务应用相结合,设计了高性能计算系统性能评测方案,建立了中国气象局气象行业高性能计算系统性能评测模型。共选取10个测试程序,分别对单节点性能、网络性能和加速比等8个指标进行了测试和量化评分,并对主要测试结果中具有代表性的气象要素场进行了物理意义合理性检查。评测结果表明:评测方案设计合理,评测模型研究取得较好效果,保障了高性能计算系统引进工作顺利完成。     

ON THE INFLUENCES OF LARGE-SCALE INHOMOGENEITY OF SEA TEMPERATURE UPON THE OCEANIC WAVES IN THE TROPICAL REGIONS——PART I : LINEAR THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

By using a linear oceanic mixed layer model, the influences of the horizontal gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) and the depth variations of the mixed layer upon tropical oceanic waves are investigated. The equatorial Rossby wave will be modified and a kind of slower thermal wave has been revealed under the influences of inhomogeneities of large-scale sea temperature field. An interesting result is that the propagating direction of the thermal wave is opposite to that of the classical Rossby wave. The result also shows that the thermal wave becomes dominant when the meridional gradient of sea temperature in the mixed layer exceeds a critical value. As a first approximation, it seems that both waves obtained by this study may be used to explain the observational facts that the SST anomalies can usually propagate in both directions, that is, eastward and westward, during the El Nino events.     

Climate drift in an ocean model coupled to a simple,perfectly matched atmosphere

A very simple, diffusive energy balance atmosphere is coupled to the GFDL ocean circulation model. This provides a useful tool for analyzing climate drift in the ocean model after coupling, and may be used to assess various schemes for minimizing such drift. In the experiment reported here, the atmosphere is constructed in such a way that it provides the ocean model at the moment of coupling with the same fluxes as during spinup. The experiment is therefore equivalent to coupling a perfectly flux-corrected atmosphere model, and is used to investigate the response of the ocean model under these conditions. In spite of the steady, passive, flux-corrected atmosphere, the ocean model drifts to a new equilibrium state after coupling. The transition takes about 2000 years; the new state is characterized by different sites of deep convection and resulting changes in high-latitude SST and global deep temperatures. The mechanism for the transition is an instability of the oceanic convection patterns under the new feedback, felt after coupling. A similar state transition of the ocean model may be triggered by the coupling shock in fully coupled GCMs. If this is so, the transition would contaminate the results of climate scenario experiments, and it would explain part of the residual drift observed in coupled models in spite of the use of flux corrections.     

A three-dimensional atmospheric trajectory model: Application to a case study of alpine lee cyclogenesis

Summary In this paper the problem of computing large-scale trajectories of atmospheric parcels is examined in the framework of a numerical limited-area model used for weather prediction. The parcel of air is considered to be a completely passive tracer, having no interaction with the environment, even when going through an area of deep atmospheric convection. The usual method of computing the trajectory after the integration, using model-produced wind fields every six hours, is compared with the method of computing the trajectory in an almost continuous fashion, during the integration of the model itself, providing in this way an estimate of the time-truncation errors associated to the first, more usual, method. This second method is found to be quite superior and can, in selected instances, lead to largely different results, as documented. Examples of beams of trajectories going through a strongly diffluent flow-field, as well as through an area of strong convection are shown and found to be very realistic, within the limitations imposed by model resolution. In addition, the sensitivity of trajectories to the definition of the vertical coordinate is explored and found to be large.     

Midlatitude ocean–atmosphere interaction in an idealized coupled model

Interannual-to-interdecadal ocean-atmosphere interaction in midlatitudes is studied using an idealized coupled model consisting of eddy resolving two-layer quasi-geostrophic oceanic and atmospheric components with a simple diagnostic oceanic mixed layer. The model solutions exhibit structure and variability that resemble qualitatively some aspects of the observed climate variability over the North Atlantic. The atmospheric climatology is characterized by a zonally modulated jet. The single-basin ocean climatology consists of a midlatitude double jet that represents the Gulf Stream and Labrador currents, which are parts of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively. The leading mode of the atmospheric low-frequency variability consists predominantly of meridional displacements of the zonal jet, with a local maximum over the ocean. The first basin-scale mode of sea-surface temperature has a red power spectrum, is largely of one polarity and bears qualitative similarities with the observed interdecadal mode identified by Kushnir. A warm sea-surface temperature anomaly is accompanied by anomalously low atmospheric pressure, an intensified model Gulf Stream and a weakened Labrador current. This mode is found not to be affected significantly by oceanic coupling. In the western part of the basin, this sea-surface temperature pattern is shown to be forced by the slowest components of the surface-wind anomaly through a delayed modulation of the baroclinic time-dependent boundary currents which advect mean SST, with synchronous variations in the two oceanic jets. The response in the east is found to be dominated by local atmospheric forcing. Basin-scale intrinsic oceanic variability consists of a damped oceanic oscillatory mode in the baroclinic flow field that is excited by the atmospheric noise. Its period is around 5.5 years, but it has a negligible influence on the evolution of sea-surface temperature. Important for this mode's excitation is the meridional position of the atmospheric center of action relative to the ocean gyres.     

华北干旱的多时间尺度组合预测模型

根据华北地区干旱具有显著的年代际和年际变化特性，该文提出了建立多时间尺度预测模型的新构想。利用奇异谱动力学重构的方法将干旱序列的年代际和年际时间尺度变化进行分离，然后分别建立两种时间尺度变化的预测模型，最后将两者进行组合。在建立年际变化预测模型时，使用信噪比的方法将前期大气和海温出现显著异常变化区域的强信号引进到预测模型中。1996~2002年跨季度的预测试验表明，这一建模方案可以较好地反映华北干旱的变化趋势，并具有一定的预测技巧。     

Oceanic transport and storage of carbon emissions

Using a global carbon cycle model (GLOCO) that considers seven terrestrial biomes, surface and deep ocean layers based on the HILDA model and a single mixed atmosphere, we analyzed the response of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and oceanic DIC and DOC depth profiles to additions of carbon to the atmosphere and ocean. The rate of transport of carbon to the deepest oceanic layers is rather insensitive to the atmosphereic-ocean surface gas exchange coefficient over a wide range, hence discrepancies between researchers on the precise global average value of this coefficient do not significantly affect predictions of atmospheric response to anthropogenic inputs. Upwelling velocity, on the other hand, amplifies oceanic response by increasing primary production in the upper ocean layers, resulting in a larger flux into DOC and sediments and increased carbon storage; experiments to reduce the uncertainty in this parameter would be valuable.The location of the carbon addition, whether it is released in the atmosphere or in the middle of the oceanic thermocline, has a significant impact on the maximum atmospheric CO₂ concentration (pCO₂) subsequently reached, suggesting that oceanic burial of a significant fraction of carbon emissions (e.g. via clathrate hydrides) may be an important management option for limiting pCO₂ buildup. Our analysis indicates that the effectiveness of ocean burial decreases asymptotically below about 1000 m depth. With a constant emissions scenario (at 1990 levels), pCO₂ at year 2100 is reduced from 501 ppmv considering all emissions go to the atmosphere, to 422 ppmv with ocean burial at a depth of 1000 m of 50% of the fossil fuel emissions. An alternative scenario looks at stabilizing pCO₂ at 450 ppmv; with no ocean burial of fossil fuel emissions, the rate of emissions has to be cut drastically after the year 2010, whereas oceanic burial of 2 GtC/yr allows for a smoother transition to alternative energy sources.     

Using moisture conservation to evaluate oceanic surface freshwater fluxes in climate models

We apply a diagnostic based on moisture conservation in the atmosphere, integrated over planetary-scale ocean basins and drainage areas to evaluate freshwater fluxes over the ocean surface to three generations of the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3, HadGEM1 and HadGEM2-AO). The coherent inclusion of runoff by the diagnostic enables model surface freshwater fluxes to be compared directly with observational estimates of precipitation, evaporation and river discharge. We also introduce a normalised metric, based on model-observation RMS differences, to assess the representation of the fluxes by the model. This methodology could be a powerful tool for evaluating model performance during future model development and model intercomparison exercises. Using this diagnostic, and defining the drainage areas from the global river routing model TRIP, we obtain large-scale surface oceanic fluxes from ERA40 and NCAR-NCEP reanalysis data, which we compare with analogous budgets computed from a set of individual observational estimates of evaporation, precipitation and river discharge. The sum of errors in the Hadley Centre climate model in all ocean basins suggests a steady improvement over the three generations of the model. However, an analysis of sources and sinks of water vapour shows common errors in the models, like an excess of evaporation in the tropical-subtropical Atlantic, and a surplus of water vapour export from tropical-subtropical areas to the mid-latitude regions, making the oceanic surface fluxes too fresh at mid latitudes. Errors in the models are consistent with an excessively strong hydrological cycle.     

On the role of high latitude ice,snow, and vegetation feedbacks in the climatic response to external forcing changes

A seasonal energy balance climate model containing a detailed treatment of surface and planetary albedo, and in which seasonally varying land snow and sea ice amounts are simulated in terms of a number of explicit physical processes, is used to investigate the role of high latitude ice, snow, and vegetation feedback processes. Feedback processes are quantified by computing changes in radiative forcing and feedback factors associated with individual processes. Global sea ice albedo feedback is 5–8 times stronger than global land snowcover albedo feedback for a 2% solar constant increase or decrease, with Southern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback being 2–5 times stronger than Northern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback.In the absence of changes in ice extent, changes in ice thickness in response to an increase in solar constant are associated with an increase in summer surface melting which is exactly balanced by increased basal winter freezing, and a reduction in the upward ocean-air flux in summer which is exactly balanced by an increased flux in winter, with no change in the annual mean ocean-air flux. Changes in the mean annual ocean-air heat flux require changes in mean annual ice extent, and are constrained to equal the change in meridional oceanic heat flux convergence in equilibrium. Feedback between ice extent and the meridional oceanic heat flux obtained by scaling the oceanic heat diffusion coefficient by the ice-free fraction regulates the feedback between ice extent and mean annual air-sea heat fluxes in polar regions, and has a modest effect on model-simulated high latitude temperature change.Accounting for the partial masking effect of vegetation on snow-covered land reduces the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant decrease or increase by 20% and 10%, respectively, even though the radiative forcing change caused by land snowcover changes is about 3 times larger in the absence of vegetational masking. Two parameterizations of the tundra fraction are tested: one based on mean annual land air temperature, and the other based on July land air temperature. The enhancement of the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature response to solar constant changes when the forest-tundra ecotone is allowed to shift with climate is only 1/3 to 1/2 that obtained by Otterman et al. (1984) when the mean annual parameterization is used here, and only 1/4 to 1/3 as large using the July parameterization.The parameterized temperature dependence of ice and snow albedo is found to enhance the global mean temperature response to a 2% solar constant increase by only 0.04 °C, in sharp contrast to the results of Washington and Meehl (1986) obtained with a mean annual model. However, there are significant differences in the method used here and in Washington and Meehl to estimate the importance of this feedback process. When their approach is used in a mean annual version of the present model, closer agreement to their results is obtained.     

Future emissions of marine halogenated very-short lived substances under climate change

Halogenated Very Short-lived Substances (VSLS), such as bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide, are naturally produced in the oceans and are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The effect of climate change on the oceanic emissions of these compounds is not well quantified. Based on present-day observed global oceanic and atmospheric concentrations, and historic and future data from three CMIP5 models, past and future sea-to-air fluxes of these VSLS are calculated. The simulations are used to infer possible effects of projected changes of physical forcing on emissions in different oceanic regimes. CMIP5 model output for 1979–2100 from the historical scenario and the RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 are used as input data for the emission calculations. Of the parameters that have the main influence on the sea-to-air fluxes, the global sea surface temperatures show a steady increase during the twenty-first century, while the projected changes of sea surface wind speed is very small. The calculated emissions based on the historical CMIP5 model runs (1979–2005) increased over the 26 year period and agree well with the emissions based on ERA-Interim data. The future sea-to-air fluxes of VSLS generally increase during the twenty-first century under the assumption of constant concentration fields in the ocean and atmosphere. The multi-model mean global emissions of bromoform increase by 29.4% (9.0%) between 1986 and 2005 and 2081–2100 under RCP 8.5 (2.6) and dibromomethane and methyl iodide emissions increase by 23.3% (6.4%) and 5.5% (1.5%), respectively. Uncertainties of the future emission estimates, driven by ongoing environmental changes such as changing oceanic productivity (not considered in this study) are discussed.     

Hydro-climatic forecasting using sea surface temperatures: methodology and application for the southeast US

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are often used for the development of hydro-climatic variable forecasts based on teleconnection methods. Such methods rely on projections or linear combinations of teleconnection indices [e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] and other predictor fields. This study introduces a new hydro-climatic forecasting method identifying SST “dipole” predictors motivated by major teleconnection patterns. An SST dipole is defined as a function of average SST anomalies over two oceanic areas of specific sizes and geographic locations. An optimization algorithm is developed to search for the most significant SST dipole predictors of an external hydro-climatic series based on the Gerrity Skill Score. The significant dipoles are cross-validated and used to generate multiple forecast values. The new method is applied to the forecasting of seasonal precipitation over the southeast US. Hindcasting results show that significant dipoles related to ENSO as well as other prominent patterns at different lead times can indeed be identified. The dipole method also compares favorably with existing statistical forecasting schemes with respect to multiple skill measures. Furthermore, an operational forecasting framework able to produce ensemble forecast traces and uncertainty intervals that can support regional water resources planning and management is also developed.     

基于守恒重映射的全球非结构网格模式同化及预报初步应用

全球大气模式在发展过程中不断获得改进,并逐渐采用非结构计算网格,如以球面重心Voronoi网格为特点的MPAS-A模式。为改进MPAS-A模式初值,相关的资料同化研究同步在积极开展。本文为实现利用变分方法快速同化多源观测资料的需求,以美国NCEP业务上使用的GSI系统作为同化模块,基于守恒重映射方法进行非结构与结构化球面网格转换,构建了GSI-MPAS同化及预报框架,并进行了网格转换测试和同化预报试验。网格转换检验测试表明,模式物理量的转换误差与其分布特征密切相关,二阶精度守恒重映射转换结果优于一阶精度转换结果。连续一周的滚动循环同化及预报试验表明,基于守恒重映射方法的GSI-MPAS同化及预报框架能够有效同化多源观测资料,改善了初值场的质量并使得MPAS-A预报得到的各个变量更加准确,且对降水预报具有正面效果。进一步分析表明,由于在北半球同化了更多观测资料,所以北半球地区的改进明显优于南半球及赤道地区。     

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates.     

Exchange of heat and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean: a minimal model of decadal oscillations

 A model of the large-scale interaction between the troposphere and the upper ocean, wind-driven circulation is formulated. Simplified parametrizations, built upon the conservation of global heat and momentum, relate the atmospheric eddy heat and momentum fluxes to the zonally averaged oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. The formulation shows that the wind-driven circulation influences the winds by controlling the strength of the oceanic northward heat transport, and thus the atmospheric northward heat transport and temperature distribution. Because the ocean takes decades to adjust to changes in the winds, the coupled system equilibrates into a state which is periodic in time, rather than steady. The period is linearly proportional to the transit time of long Rossby waves across the basin, and thus is of the order of decades for large-scale basins. Received: 15 December 1998 / Accepted: 29 October 1999     

Meso-scale perturbations and thermohaline fronts in the south atlantic ocean

A linear quasi-geostrophic model and a non-linear balanced model are used to study the properties of the oceanic baroclinic waves. From a linear point of view, the oceanic meso-scale (200–400 km) disturbances found near the Brazil and Falkland currents confluence zone seem to be generated by baroclinic instability. Non-geostrophic and non-linear effects due to a single original wave are superimposed on the linear fields associated with the most unstable wave. Characteristics very similar to observations are obtained in the evolution to finite amplitude. The evolution of oceanic thermal rings is very well reproduced by the non-linear model. However, the stage of saturation is not reached in the model results since the feedback to the thermal basic state is not included.