Hydrogeologic Controls on Induced Seismicity in Crystalline Basement Rocks Due to Fluid Injection into Basal Reservoirs

A series of M_b 3.8–5.5 induced seismic events in the midcontinent region, United States, resulted from injection of fluid either into a basal sedimentary reservoir with no underlying confining unit or directly into the underlying crystalline basement complex. The earthquakes probably occurred along faults that were likely critically stressed within the crystalline basement. These faults were located at a considerable distance (up to 10 km) from the injection wells and head increases at the hypocenters were likely relatively small (～70–150 m). We present a suite of simulations that use a simple hydrogeologic‐geomechanical model to assess what hydrogeologic conditions promote or deter induced seismic events within the crystalline basement across the midcontinent. The presence of a confining unit beneath the injection reservoir horizon had the single largest effect in preventing induced seismicity within the underlying crystalline basement. For a crystalline basement having a permeability of 2 × 10^?17 m² and specific storage coefficient of 10^?7/m, injection at a rate of 5455 m³/d into the basal aquifer with no underlying basal seal over 10 years resulted in probable brittle failure to depths of about 0.6 km below the injection reservoir. Including a permeable (k_z = 10^?13 m²) Precambrian normal fault, located 20 m from the injection well, increased the depth of the failure region below the reservoir to 3 km. For a large permeability contrast between a Precambrian thrust fault (10^?12 m²) and the surrounding crystalline basement (10^?18 m²), the failure region can extend laterally 10 km away from the injection well.     

On the heat flux related to stretching in the NW-Mediterranean continental margins

Summary The surface thermal flux of the continental margins of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea is interpreted on the basis of a 1-D instantaneous pure shear stretching model of the lithosphere in terms of three components: the background heat flowing out from the asthenosphere (38 mW m^–2), the transient contribution depending on the rift age and extension amount (35 mW m^–2 at the most), and the contribution due to the radiogenic elements of the lithosphere. The radiogenic component is estimated at the continental margins of the Ligurian-Provençal basin and Valencia trough, and in the surrounding mainland areas by means of available data of surface heat generation from Variscan Corsica, Maures-Estérel and the Central Massif along with a geophysical-petrological relationship between heat production and seismic velocity. The lithosphere radiogenic heat contribution q_l decreases with the thinning factor according to the exponential law: q_l() = a exp(-b), in which factor b is greater for that part of the lithosphere below the uppermost 10 km. Considering also the heat generated by radioactive isotopes in sediments, the stable Variscan lithosphere produces an average thermal flux of 30 mW m^–2 which decreases by about one half where the lithosphere is thinned by one third. Although the surface heat generation is 2·1 – 3·3 µW m^–3 in the Maures-Estérel massif — excepting small outcrops of dioritic rocks with lower heat production — and 1·8 µW m^–3 for most of Corsica, the radiogenic heating within the lithosphere for such areas is nearly the same and does not explain the higher heat flux of the Corsica margin. This asymmetric thermal pattern with surface heat flux which is 10 – 15 mW m^–2 higher than predictions is probably of upper mantle origin, or can be ascribed to penetrative magmatism.     

The 1975–1977 crisis of la Soufriere de Guadeloupe (F.W.I): A still-born magmatic eruption

On July 8, 1976, eruptive activity broke out at la Soufrière de Guadeloupe (F.W.I) after about one year of increasing seismic activity. Seismic activity continued to increase until August 1976, reaching more than 1500 events (a 200-fold increase over the preceding quiet period of a few years) and an energy output of about 10¹⁷ ergs in a day. A total of 26 major phreatic eruptions similar to the July 8 outburst took place during an eight-months period. The steam blasts that characterized the eruptions gave rise to particle- and sometimes block-charged plumes that deposited an estimated 10⁶ m³ of solids. The H₂O-rich gases emitted during the blasts presumably contained other gases (H₂S, SO₂, CO₂...) that were partly adsorbed on solid particles. All material was erupted at temperatures of the order of 100° to 200°C.The observation of vertical migration of earthquake foci in less than a few hours and over about 6 km depth, and of abnormal variations of the geomagnetic field, indicate a deep energy source for the phreatic eruptions. A small proportion of the gases adsorbed on solid particles had a magmatic origin. However, most of the steam and the tephra seemed to originate from superficial levels of a hydrothermal system. Similar phreatic eruptions have occurred several times in recorded history. In the case of la Soufrière, the origin of the phreatic eruptions is best described by an abnormal energy input (versus steady-state) from a crustal magma chamber. The occurrence of truly magmatic eruptions is presumably inhibited by an extensive hydrothermal system. The abrupt release of more power from the magma chamber could have resulted in an explosive pyroclastic eruption.Substantial improvement of the Guadeloupe volcano observatory has followed the 1975–1977 crisis. Permanent telemetered geophysical networks and regular geochemical observations have provided a five year data base of the volcano behavior in its noneruptive state which can be compared to crisis situations.     

Evaluation of factors controlling smectite transformation and fluid production in subduction zones: Application to the Nankai Trough

Abstract The transformation of smectite‐group clay minerals to illite has garnered considerable interest as a potentially important process affecting both the mechanical and hydrologic behavior of subduction zones. Illitization can generate fluid overpressure by release of bound water, and the mineralogical change and associated cementation may increase intrinsic frictional strength while decreasing the sliding stability of faults. Released bound water also contributes to pore water freshening observed in boreholes at numerous margins. Here the authors combine data from Ocean Drilling Program drill sites along two transects at the Nankai subduction zone with numerical models of smectite transformation, to (i) quantify the distribution of smectite transformation and fluid production downdip of the trench; and (ii) evaluate its hydrologic and mechanical implications. High heat flow (ca 180 mW/m²) along the axis of the Kinan Seamount Chain (Muroto transect) initiates clay mineral transformation outboard of the trench, whereas lower heat flow (70–120 mW/m²) 100 km to the SW (Ashizuri transect) results in negligible presubduction diagenesis. As a result, considerably more bound fluid is subducted along the Ashizuri transect; simulated peak fluid sources down‐dip of the trench are considerably higher than for the Muroto transect (ca 1.2–1.3 × 10^?14/s vs ca 6 × 10^?15/s), and are shifted ca 10 km further from the trench. More generally, sensitivity analysis illustrates that heat flow, taper angle, incoming sediment thickness, and plate convergence rate all systematically affect reaction progress and the distribution of bound water release down‐dip of the trench. These shifts in the loci and volume of fluid release are important for constraining fluid flow pathways, and provide insight into the links between clay transformation and fault mechanics.     

Review of heat flow data from the eastern Mediterranean region

Heat flow data from the eastern Mediterranean region indicates an extensive area of low heat flow, spreading over the whole basin of the Mediterranean east of Crete (Levantine Sea), Cyprus, and northern Egypt. The average of the marine heat flow measurements in the Levantine Sea is 25.7±8.4 mW/m², and the heat flow on Cyprus is 28.0±8.0 mW/m². The estimated values of heat flow in northern Egypt range from 38.3±7.0 to 49.9±9.3 mW/m², apparently with no consistent trend. To the east, on the coast of Israel, the heat flow values increase, ranging from 36.6±22.4 to 56.7±14.2 mW/m² along a SSE trend. The trend apparently correlates with an increase in crustal thickness, which is about 23 km at the north-west base of the Nile-Delta-cone, and close to 40 km beneath Israel.Contribution No. 157, Department of Geology, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, USA.     

Thermal structure and energy of the Hakone volcano,Japan

The thermal energy balance and the temperature profile of the Hakone volcano are considered quantitatively. Across the Hakone volcano and its surroundings the heat flow values vary from 10^–1 to 10³ mW/m², due to thermal conduction and mass flow involving volcanic steam and hot spring discharge. An area with extremely low heat flow is observed in the western side of the caldera showing the presence of percolating meteoric water. The hydrothermal activity is intense in the eastern half of the caldera.The total heat discharge from the high temperature zone (discharge area) of the Hakone volcano amounts to 11.0×10⁷ W. The magmatic steam energy discharge is 95.0×10⁶ W. The thermal energy by redistribution of the terrestrial heat flow by the lateral deep ground water flow is calculated to be 9.00×10⁶ W. For the model having the vertical vent in the volcano's central part up to 1 km depth below the ground surface from a magma reservoir the computed temperature distribution is consistent with the observed values. The depth of the magma reservoir is 7 km below the ground surface and the diameter is 5 km.     

Fracturing and hydrothermal alteration in normal fault zones

Large normal fault zones are characterized by intense fracturing and hydrothermal alteration. Displacement is localized in a slip zone of cataclasite, breccia and phyllonite surrounding corrugated and striated fault surfaces. Slip zone rock grades into fractured, but less comminuted and hydrothermally altered rock in the transition zone, which in turn grades abruptly into the wall rock. Fracturing and fluid flow is episodic, because permeability generated during earthquakes is destroyed by hydrothermal processes during the time between earthquakes.Fracture networks are described by a fracture fabric tensor (F). The permeability tensor (k) is used to estimate fluid transport properties if the trace of F is sufficiently large. Variations in elastic moduli and seismic velocities between fault zone and wall rock are estimated as a function of fracture density (). Fracturing decreases elastic moduli in the transition zone by 50–100% relative to the country rock, and similar or even greater changes presumably occur in the slip zone.P-andS-wave velocity decrease, andV _p /V _s increases in the fault zone relative to the wall rock. Fracture permeability is highly variable, ranging between 10^–13 m² and 10^–19 m² at depths near 10 km. Changes in permeability arise from variations in effective stress and fracture sealing and healing.Hydrothermal alteration of quartzo-feldspathic rock atT>300°C creates mica, chlorite, epidote and alters the quartz content. Alteration changes elastic moduli, but the changes are much less than those caused by fracturing.P-andS-wave velocities also decrease in the hydrothermally altered fault rock relative to the country rock, and there is a slight decrease inV _p /V _s , which partially offsets the increase inV _p /V _s caused by fracturing.Fracturing and hydrothermal alteration affect fault mechanics. Low modulus rock surrounding fault surfaces increases the probability of exceeding the critical slip distance required for the onset of unstable slip during rupture initiation. Boundaries between low modulus fault rock and higher modulus wall rock also act as rupture guides and enhance rupture acceleration to dynamic velocity. Hydrothermal alteration at temperatures in excess of 300°C weakens the deeper parts of the fault zone by producingphyllitic mineral assemblages. Sealing of fracture in time periods between large earthquakes generates pods of abnormally pressured fluid which may play a fundamental role in the initiation of large earthquakes.     

Investigation into regional thermal structure of the Thrace Region, NW Turkey, from aeromagnetic and borehole data

The aeromagnetic values over the study region are relatively uniform except for a few anomalies in the northeastern and southwestern areas. Analyses of aeromagnetic data were performed in NW Turkey, in order to have a look into the subsurface regional thermal structure of the region. For this purpose, power spectra, reduced to pole (RTP), and band-pass filtered anomalies were produced using geophysical techniques. Band-pass filtered data were produced from the RTP aeromagnetic anomalies to isolate near surface and undesired deep effects. Based on the aeromagnetic data interpretation, the thickness of the magnetized crust, named the Curie Point Depth (CPD), in the study area lies between 9.7 and 20.3 km. The CPD estimates in the Thrace region of Turkey indicate two shallow CPD (SCPD1 and SCPD2) zones (the Istranca Massif and the Saros Graben area). The deep CPD are located within the Thrace Basin with sediment thickness of about 9 km. The corresponding heat flow map prepared from the averaged thermal conductivities and thermal gradients from the CPD reveals the existence of one low heat flow zone (75 mW/m²) over the center of Thrace Basin, and two high heat flow zones over the Istranca Masif (100–125 mW/m²) in the northern side and Saros Graben (125–135 mW/m²) areas in the southern side of the Thrace Basin.     

Heat flow and the geothermal potential of Egypt

Preliminary heat flow values ranging from 42 to 175 mW m^–2 have been estimated for Egypt from numerous geothermal gradient determinations with a reasonably good geographical distribution, and a limited number of thermal conductivity determinations. For northern Egypt and the Gulf of Suez, gradients were calculated from oil well bottom hole temperature data; east of the Nile, and at three sites west of the Nile, gradients were calculated from detailed temperature logs in shallow boreholes. With one exception, the heat flow west of the Nile and in northern Egypt is estimated to be low, 40–45 mW m^–2, typical of a Precambrian Platform province. A local high, 175 mW m^–2, is probably due to local oxidational heating or water movement associated with a phosphate mineralized zone. East of the Nile, however, including the Gulf of Suez, elevated heat flow is indicated at several sites, with a high of 175 mW m^–2 measured in a Precambrian granitic gneiss approximately 2 km from the Red Sea coast. These data indicate potential for development of geothermal resources along the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez coasts. Water geochemistry data confirm the high heat flow, but do not indicate any deep hot aquifers. Microearthquake monitoring and gravity data indicate that the high heat flow is associated with the opening of the Red Sea.     

Effusive history of the Grande Découverte Volcanic Complex, southern Basse-Terre (Guadeloupe, French West Indies) from new K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot ages

The Grande Découverte Volcanic Complex (GDVC), active since at least 0.2 Ma, is the most recent volcanic complex of the Basse-Terre Island (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles Arc). A detailed geochronological study using the K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot technique has been undertaken in order to reconstruct the history of effusive activity of this long-lived volcanic system. Twenty new ages permit to suggest that the GDVC experienced at least six main effusive stages, from 200 ka to present time. To the north of the GDVC, the GDS (Grande Découverte–Soufrière volcano) has been active since at least 200 ka, and to the south, the TRMF (Trois-Rivières–Madeleine Field), started to be emplaced 100 ka. Morphological investigations suggest that the whole TRMF volcanism was emitted from vents distinct from the GDS, most probably a large E–W fissure network linked to the Marie-Galante rift. The mean age of 62 ± 5 ka, obtained for the E–W Madeleine–Le Palmiste alignment suggests that a fissure-opening event occurred at that time. However, whole-rock major and trace element signatures are similar for both systems, suggesting that a common complex magma-plumbing system has fed the overall GDVC. We report very young ages for lava flows from the TRMF, which implies that < 10 ka volcanic activity is now identified for both massifs. Although hazards associated with such effusive volcanism are much lower than those associated with potential flank-collapse of the Soufrière lava dome or a magmatic dome eruption with explosive phases within the GDS, the emplacement of relatively large Holocene age lava flows (3–1 × 10⁸ m³) suggests that a revised integrated volcanic hazard assessment for Southern Basse-Terre should now consider the potential for renewed future activity from two Holocene volcanic centers including the TRMF.     

The hydrothermal karstification and its effect on Ordovician carbonate reservoir in Tazhong uplift of Tarim Basin,Northwest China

With a detailed study on petrology, mineralogy and geochemistry of some important Ordovician carbonate well core samples in Tazhong uplift of Tarim Basin, the distinguishing symbols of hydrothermal karstification are first put forward as the phenomena of rock hot depigmentation, hot cataclasm and the appearance of typical hydrothermal minerals such as fluorite, barite, pyrite, quartz and sphalerite. The main homogenization temperatures of primary fluid inclusions in fluorite are from 260 to 310°C, indicating the temperature of hydrothermal fluid. The fluid affected the dissolved rocks and showed typical geochemistry features with low contents of Na and Mg, and high contents of Fe, Mn and Si. The ratio of ³He/⁴He is 0.02R _a, indicating the fluid from the typical continental crust. The hydrothermal fluid karstification pattern may be described as follows: the hot fluid is from the Permian magma, containing dissolving ingredients of CO₂ and H₂S, and shifts along fault, ruptures and unconformity, and dissolves the surrounding carbonates while it flows. The mechanism of hydrothermal karstification is that the mixture of two or more fluids, which have different ion intensity and pH values, becomes a new unsaturated fluid to carbonates. The hydrothermal karstification is an important process to form hypo-dissolved pinholes in Ordovician carbonates of Tazhong uplift of Tarim Basin, and the forming of hydrothermal minerals also has favorable influence on carbonate reservoirs.

     

Late quaternary hydrothermal explosion breccias at Kawerau Geothermal Field,New Zealand

Two large (10⁶–10⁷ m³ erupted volume) hydrothermal explosions occurred from craters on the eastern margin of Kawerau Geothermal Field at c. 14,500 and 9,000 yrs B.P. Explosion products are interbedded within C14 dated pyroclastic fall deposits and contain clasts of hydrothermally altered ignimbrite, rhyolite and tuff, in a silty hydrothermal clay matrix. No magmatic ejecta are found. Some ejected blocks record earlier pre-eruption episodes of shallow hydraulic fracturing and silica cementation. Drillhole stratigraphy indicates that explosion extended to about 190 m below present ground level. The explosion is analysed as a rock/water interaction with eruptive energy provided by flashing of about half the available water. Although surface heat flow and shallow temperatures are now low at eastern Kawerau, the hydrothermal explosions demonstrate the previous existence of a high temperature shallow geothermal system, probably related to a major fault feeding water up through the basement.     

Heat flow in Italy

More than fifty heat flow measurements in Italy are examined. The values, corrected only for local influences (when present), are related to the main geological features with the following results: foreland areas, 55±19 mW m^–2, foredeep areas, 45±21 mW m^–2; folded regions and intermountain depressions, 76±29 mW m^–2. In volcanic areas the heat flow rises to in excess of 600 mW m^–2. From a tectonic point of view, these values are consistent with the hypothesis that the Apennine chain is intersected by two arcuate structures: the first from Liguria to Latium is very probably a continental arc, that is an are which occurs within a continent, and the second from Campania to Calabria is very similar from geophysical evidence to the classic island arcs.     

Secular variations of carbon and helium isotopes at Izu-Oshima Volcano, Japan

Secular variations in ¹³C/¹²C ratios and chemical compositions of gas samples from October 1986 to July 1992 are reported from a 92–95 °C steam well located about 3 km north of Mt. Mihara, an active volcano on Izu-Oshima Island, Japan. The δ¹³C value steeply increased from −2.97‰ (relative to PDB carbonate) in December 1986 to −1.15‰ in March 1988 and then gradually decreased to −1.75‰ in July 1992. Over the same period, the CO₂ content changed similarly with time, even though the experimental error is relatively large. These variations are consistent with helium isotope changes. Initially rapid and then slow enhancements of ³He/⁴He ratio, δ¹³C value and CO₂ content are invoked by violent eruptions of Izu-Oshima volcano from 15 November to 18 December 1986. After the eruptive activity, depletion of magmatic gas emission and subsequent mixing with crustal fluids in the hydrothermal system may produce the gradual decreases of ³He/⁴He ratio, δ¹³C value and CO₂ content. Taking into account the rates of these decreases, we suggest that helium and carbon isotope ratios will return to the situation of before the magmatic eruption within 15 years.     

Possible geothermal resources in the Coast Plutonic Complex of southern British Columbia,Canada

In southern British Columbia the terrestrial heat flow is low (44 mW m^–2) to the west of the Coast Plutonic Complex (CPC), average in CPC (50–60 mW m^–2),and high to the east(80–90 mW m^–2). The average heat flow in CPC and the low heat generation (less than 1 W m^–3) indicate that a relatively large amount of heat flows upwards into the crust which is generally quite cool. Until two million years ago the Explorer plate underthrust this part of the American plate, carrying crustal material into the mantle. Melted crustal rocks have produced the inland Pemberton and Garibaldi volcanic belts in the CPC.Meager Mountain, a volcanic complex in the CPC 150 km north of Vancouver, is a possible geothermal energy resource. It is the product of intermittent activity over a period of 4 My, the most recent eruption being the Bridge River Ash 2440 y B.P. The original explosive eruption produced extensive fracturing in the granitic basement, and a basal explosion breccia from the surface of a cold brittle crust. This breccia may be a geothermal reservoir. Other volcanic complexes in the CPC have a similar potential for geothermal energy.Earth Physics Contribution No. 704.     

Variation in noble gas isotopic composition of gas samples from the Aegean arc, Greece

In contrast to most other arcs with oceanic plate subduction, the Aegean arc is characterized by continent–continent subduction. Noble gas abundances and isotopic compositions of 45 gas samples have been determined from 6 volcanoes along the arc, 2 islands in the back-arc region and 7 sites in the surrounding areas. The ³He/⁴He ratios of the samples ranged from 0.027R_A to 6.2R_A (R_A denotes the atmospheric ³He/⁴He ratio of 1.4×10⁻⁶), demonstrating that even the maximum ³He/⁴He ratio in the region is significantly lower than the maximum ratios of most oceanic subduction systems, which are equal to the MORB value of 8±1 R_A. Regional variations in the ³He/⁴He ratio were observed both along and across the arc. The maximum ³He/⁴He ratio was obtained from Nisyros volcano located in the eastern end of the arc, and the ratio decreased westward possibly reflecting the difference in potential degree of crustal assimilation or the present magmatic activity in each volcano. Across the volcanic arc, the ³He/⁴He ratio decreased with an increasing distance from the arc front, reaching a low ratio of 0.063R_A in Macedonia, which suggested a major contribution of radiogenic helium derived from the continental crust. At Nisyros, a temporal increase in ³He/⁴He ratio due to ascending subsurface magma was observed after the seismic crisis of 1995–1998 and mantle neon was possibly detected. The maximum ³He/⁴He ratio (6.2R_A) in the Aegean region, which is significantly lower than the MORB value, is not probably due to crustal assimilation at shallow depth or addition of slab-derived helium to MORB-like mantle wedge, but inherent characteristics of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) beneath the Aegean arc.     

Excess3He in the deep water over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 26°N: evidence of hydrothermal activity

We have observed distinct and significant patterns of excess³He in bottom waters over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the “TAG hydrothermal field”. The lateral regional gradients are comparable in magnitude to gradients observed in the Galapagos rift, an area of confirmed hydrothermal activity. Together with this, the³He patterns, magnitudes and vertical gradients all indicate on-going and continuous hydrothermal activity.     

An oxygen isotope study of hydrothermal alteration in the Lake City caldera, San Juan Mountains, Colorado

A 23-m.y.-old, fossil meteoric-hydrothermal system in the Lake City caldera (11 × 14 km) has been mapped out by measuring δ ¹⁸O values of 300 rock and mineral samples. δ ¹⁸O varies systematically throughout the caldera, reaching values as low as −2. Great topographic relief, regional tilting, and variable degrees of erosion within the caldera all combine to give us a very complete section through the hydrothermal system, from the surface down to a depth of more than 2000 m. The initial δ ¹⁸O value of the caldera-fill Sunshine Peak Tuff was very uniform (+7.2 ± 0.1), making it easy to determine the exact amount of ¹⁸O depletion experienced by each sample during hydrothermal alteration. Also, we have excellent stratigraphic control on depths beneath the mid-Tertiary surface, quantitative information on mineralogical alteration products, and accurate data on the shape of the central resurgent intrusion, which was the principal ‘heat engine’ that drove the hydrothermal circulation. Major conclusions are: (1) Although pristine mid-Tertiary meteoric waters in this area had δ ¹⁸O −14, these fluids were ¹⁸O-shifted upward to about δ¹⁸O = −8 to −5 prior to entering the shallow convective system associated with the resurgent intrusive rocks. Although there was undoubtedly radial inflow toward the caldera from all directions, the highly fractured Eureka Graben, southwest of the caldera, was probably the principal source of recharge groundwater for the Lake City system. (2) Fluid flow within the caldera was dominated by three major categories of permeable zones: the porous megabreccia units (which dip outward from the resurgent dome), vertical fractures and faults related to resurgence, and the caldera ring fault itself. All of these zones exhibit marked ¹⁸O depletions, and they are also typically intensely mineralogically altered. (3) The resurgent intrusive stock and its contact metamorphic aureole of hornfels both experienced water/rock ratios lower than the permeable zones; however, they have similarly low δ ¹⁸O values because they were altered at higher temperatures. (4) Throughout the caldera, the δ ¹⁸O of Sunshine Peak Tuff decreases with increasing depth (about 6 per mil/km), indicative of a shallow thermal gradient, typical of a convective hydrothermal system. The near-surface portion of this gradient was controlled by the temperature drop associated with boiling in the uprising fluid. (5) Deeply circulating meteoric water rose along permeable ring fractures 3 to 5 km beneath the mid-Tertiary surface. These fluids were drawn into the shallow convective system through the lower, porous, megabreccia units. Near the resurgent intrusions, fluid flow was again directed upward where resurgence-related, near-vertical fractures intersect the megabreccia units.     

A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.