探讨气候变化的新热点:大气气溶胶的气候效应

气溶胶的气候效应是近年来研究的热点问题。针对这一问题已开展过许多观测研究和模式研究。但是由于气溶胶问题的复杂性以及对气溶胶的观测历史短,至今尚缺少全球范围的气溶胶系统观测资料,所以目前气溶胶的辐射强迫仍是个很不确定的量。这直接影响对全球气候变化的预测。目前国内外正在加强这方面的研究工作,并且有了一些初步的结果。概述了近期国内外对气溶胶的气候效应的研究状况及结果,介绍了今后国际上将要在这一领域开展的研究工作。     

Geomagnetic Hazards to Conducting Networks

Geomagnetic disturbances can disrupt the operation of conductingnetworks, such as power systems, pipelines and communication cables. In power systems,geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) flow to ground through power transformers,disrupting their operation and causing transformer heating, increased reactive power demand,and generating harmonics that can cause relay misoperation. In extreme cases these effectscan lead to power blackouts such as occurred on the Hydro-Québec system during a geomagneticstorm in March 1989 leaving 6 million people without power for 9 hours.Geomagnetic disturbances are the result of eruptions on theSun that send high energy particles streaming out into space. When these particles reach theEarth they interact with the magnetic field, generating currents that flow down into the ionosphere.The most intense currents are associated with the aurora and occur in an east-west bandacross Canada. It is the magnetic field produced by these ionospheric currents that is seen on theground as a magnetic disturbance.Prevention of geomagnetic effects on power systems hasfocussed on blocking the flow of GIC in the system. However, such measures are expensive andmany utilities rely on forecasts of geomagnetic activity to help them operate during disturbances.The Canadian Geomagnetic Forecast Service, operated by Natural Resources Canada,has been in operation since 1974 and now provides long term and short term forecasts for threelatitude regions of Canada.Research is needed on all aspects of the problem; from newinformation about solar eruptions for improving forecasting services; to understanding systemresponse to disturbances. Research on geomagnetic disturbances is conducted by the CanadianGeomagnetic Forecasting Centre and a number of active groups at Canadian universities; whileresearch on geomagnetic effects is conducted by affected industries, often in collaborationwith the forecasting centre.     

城市突发性地质灾害应急系统探讨

城市突发性地质灾害是当今减灾的重点，已引起了广泛的关注。人们意识到灾后及时地采取应急抢险救援措施，可以有效地减少人员伤亡。灾害应急行动包括建立应急指挥机构，明确职责，并进行资源调配。灾害应急抢险救灾时实性强，其快速反应行动涉及危机管理、预警、撤离、避险，以及维护法律与社会秩序、信息通报、灾情评估。应急救援行动还包括城市基础和生命线的恢复，以确保受灾居民和社区的基本需求。论文在分析城市突发性地质灾害应急管理进展和存在问题的基础上，探讨了当前城市地质灾害应急反应系统中的监测预警系统、快速反应系统、应急指挥系统、应急避难系统、信息发布系统、空间信息系统和宣传教育系统：通过实施这些应急系统并制定预案可以达到减轻城市突发性地质灾害的目的。     

空气污染损害价值的WTP、WTA对比研究

条件估值法(Contingent Valuation Method, CVM),通过询问人们对于环境质量改善的支付意愿(Willingness To Pay, WTP)或受到损害后的受偿意愿(Willingness To Accept, WTA)来评估环境物品或服务的价值。虽然对CVM的准确性存在争议,但这一方法正被越来越广泛地应用,人们认识到这一方法能够解决许多无法解决的问题。空气污染一直是澳门的环境问题,空气污染造成的损害是多方面的。本研究分2次进行,2002年12月SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)爆发前,进行了WTP的调查,打电话调查样本1 600个,回收有效问卷720份;2004年3月SARS爆发后,又进行了WTA调查,打电话调查样本1 336个,回收有效问卷543份。本研究旨在采用CVM中之WTP和WTA方法,分析比较SARS爆发前后,居民对澳门空气污染损失的意愿价值的变化情况,探讨WTP和WTA两种研究方法的估值差异,为城市环境管理提供决策依据。本研究的特点:①对调查的误差进行了统计学分析;②CVM的调查采用支付意愿和受偿意愿相结合的对比研究。经济分析结果表明,2002年SARS爆发前,以WTP分析得出澳门空气污染的年经济损失保守估计值为3.77亿MOP(澳门元, 1美元=8.033MOP)、占当年GDP的0.69%;2004年SARS爆发后,以WTA法分析得出澳门空气污染的年经济损失最高估计值为14.32亿MOP/年,占当年GDP的2.2%。研究表明,SARS爆发后,居民的环护意识有不同程度的提高。     

Challenges for Sustainable Mineral Resources Development in the 21st Century*

Abstract. The modern minerals industry is more environmentally responsible and socially aware than at any time in the past, and yet faces increasing challenges to improve its performance in these areas still further. Some of these expectations are reasonable and achievable, but others are unrealistic (e.g., “zero impact”) if real development is to continue. Moreover, because society is the ultimate beneficiary of the industry's products, it should be prepared to pay for the improvements it demands. Currently externalized costs, such as many environmental and social impacts, should be internalized into prices, and higher royalties should be charged on gross revenue to ensure effective capture of value of non‐renewable resources by host countries. Such costs to consumers could be offset by higher recycling value, leasing, or deposit‐return schemes. NGOs have an important role to play in working with industry to convince society to accept such changes.     

干旱区内陆河流域农户生态补偿支付意愿的空间异质性分析

深入开展支付意愿的空间差异和空间效应分析, 对于分区定策、 精准实施生态治理工程、 提高生态补偿实践绩效、 提升治理与保护效果等方面, 有着重要的现实指导意义。在确定影响流域农户支付意愿的主要因素的基础上, 借助多分类Logistic模型分析各因素对农户支付意愿的影响作用, 并通过引入通达距离、 距河道距离分别比较流域农户支付意愿的空间效应, 得到的主要结论包括： 在不考虑距离因素的情况下, 教育程度、 农户类型对于农户支付意愿的影响显著; 在考虑距离因素的情况下, 受教育程度对支付意愿的影响存在“脱钩”现象, 模型3模拟结果显示, 高中群体处于更高支付意愿的发生比为1.044, 而大专群体处于更高支付意愿水平的发生比仅为0.363, 即支付意愿并不会伴随受教育程度的提高而增强; 通达距离与支付意愿表现为先负相关（“距离衰减”现象）、 之后呈正相关（“距离递增”现象）的关系; 距河道距离远近对流域农户的支付意愿呈现明显的“距离衰减”规律。     

Some neglected considerations in the valuation of marine minerals with special reference to cobalt crusts

Seabed mineral resource may possess option value as a result of prospective technical change or low-probability/high-payoff future events. This would explain the current interest in leasing these submarginal resources. Theoretical arguments are used to evaluate the technical change aspect. Specific reference to the cobalt market is used to illustrate the uncertainty case. The paper concludes that leasing interest may reflect legitimate economic considerations, even though the near-term development potential is unpromising.Adapted in part from a presentation given at the KORDI/EWC Joint Workshop in Asia/Pacific Marine Resources and Development, June 1986, Seoul, Korea. The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (SES-84-20239) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration in separate investigations which the paper draws upon. E. Gardner, M. Jacinto, and L. Seymour assisted in gathering background information. A special thanks to J. Broadus, M. Cruickshank, C. Johnson, G. Pontecorvo, and J. Marsh for their advice and encouragement. Any errors are the author's responsibility.     

Willingness to pay for improved residential waste management in a developing country

In most developing countries policies and frameworks that govern solid waste management strategies have often been directed at the waste management service providers and less attention is often given to the demand side of the problem. This paper reports a study regarding householders’ willingness to pay for improved residential solid waste management. The data for the study originated from a contingent valuation survey that was conducted in 236 households in Ilorin city in Kwara State, Nigeria. A binary logit model was used to account for some factors influencing the respondents’ willingness to pay. The results show that more than 80 % of the respondents were in support of the residential waste management. The respondents were willing to pay an average of 3,660 Nigerian Naira (US $24) each year. Income, education, dwelling type and whether the respondent is satisfied with private sector participation in provision of waste management service positively influenced the respondents’ willingness to pay. The price, gender, household size and activities of sanitary inspectors had negative influence. The findings from this study could contribute to the knowledge regarding the design of a more sustainable residential waste management strategy in Nigeria and other countries that have similar conditions.     

全球清洁能源发展现状与趋势分析

一次能源尤其是化石能源的大规模开发利用,导致环境破坏越来越严重,对人类生活造成了极大的负面影响,因此,清洁能源的开发利用引起全球的广泛重视,美国、日本、欧盟、中国、印度等国家或地区从20世纪开始开展清洁能源的开发利用工作.本文在前人的研究基础上,首先明确了清洁能源的概念和能源种类.其次,从投资、装机容量和消费变化等方面...     

The comparison of discrete payment vehicle methods (dichotomous choice) in improving the quality of the environment

Using methods to estimate the value of environmental goods seems to be essential for economic planning and moving toward development. In this paper, using methods of discrete payment vehicle (dichotomous choice), i.e., single-bounded and Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice, the value of air pollution in Tehran and households’ willingness to pay to improve air quality, in four selected regions (Shahr-e-Ray, Shoosh, Haft-e-Tir and Tajrish) is estimated and the corresponding results of these two techniques were compared. The results showed that the total value of air quality improvement, calculated through two techniques of Double-Bounded and Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice were, respectively, 2,398,657,500 and 1,492,566,000 thousands Rials (1USD = 35,000R) in a year and weighted mean of each citizen’s willingness to pay to improve air quality, calculated through these two methods was estimated to be 282,192 and 175,596 Rials in a year, respectively. Considering the annual damage to health, for any 1% increase in pollutants and yearly cost of pollution reduction which are, respectively, 1,199,000,000 and 7,336,000,000 thousands Rials, it was determined that citizens’ willingness to pay through two methods includes 20 and 30% of the cost of pollution control, respectively, while 70% of pollution is due to mobile sources. However, citizens’ low willingness to pay is attributed to citizens’ distrust of government policies as well as their ignorance of the harmful effects of air pollution. In general, the results of this study, with regard to the cost of pollution from Single-Bounded Dichotomous Choice are closer to actual market conditions.     

Landslide risk: some issues that determine societal acceptance

This paper illustrates approaches to landslide risk acceptance in various parts of the world in the context of the willingness to accept that risk, the willingness to pay to reduce the risk, and the willingness to alter the environment in the process. These factors are interlinked using the ternary ??willingness diagram?? which is also used to demonstrate how such willingness may change over time and to compare a range of generic approaches to landslide remediation as well as different conceptual approaches to landslide risk management. The willingness construct is intended to provide a readily understood framework for infrastructure owners and operators, amongst others, to understand how their approach to risk management compares with those in other regions, countries and contexts. Issues relevant to the response of society and groups of individuals to landslide risk, its acceptance and management include cultural factors, regulation and planning, budgetary constraints, vehicular vulnerability, and the often limited size of the event footprint compared to the vulnerability shadow that is cast are also discussed.     

青海德令哈地区近400年来的降水量变化与太阳活动

使用多种数学统计方法分析了德令哈地区降水量变化与太阳活动之间的关系,发现近400年来降水量的长期变化与太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和太阳黑子周期上升支长度之间存在着较好的反相关关系,当SCL偏短、太阳黑子周期上升支长度偏短时,太阳活动偏强,德令哈地区降水量偏多,反之偏少。功率谱和小波分析发现降水量序列中存在着与太阳活动的多种周期相一致的周期,对降水量与太阳活动在不同时间尺度上周期变化之间的关系进行了详细分析。交叉小波分析发现太阳活动主要在百年左右尺度的周期变化上影响德令哈地区降水量的长期变化,太阳活动周期变化的信号越强,对降水量变化的影响越大。文章最后对太阳活动影响德令哈地区降水量变化的可能机制进行了探讨。     

Economic and environmental risks and uncertainty in frontier resource development: Case study of the Athabasca oil sands

Resource extraction projects in frontier regions may give rise to many problems concerning their economic viability and also their impact on the environment. The mining and processing activity in the oil sands of Alberta is a case in point. This area comprises one of the largest reservoirs of oil in the world. Long-run supply considerations in both Canada and the rest of the world should lead to further development of these oil sands. However, a review of the first two projects reveals considerable economic and environmental uncertainty. The economics of the project currently under way are questionable mainly because of inflated costs on one hand and uncertain future oil prices on the other. Controversy has developed over aspects of the land, water, and atmospheric environmental impacts of the projects partly because development proceeded before extensive studies were done. All these concerns have led to uncertainty concerning future projects and also the price the people of Alberta and Canada will pay, in economic and environmental terms, for development in this area.     

Keeping the stress off the sheep? Agricultural intensification, neoliberalism, and ‘good’ farming in New Zealand

Under neoliberal schemes like audit systems, consumer demands born of concerns about food safety, the environment and animal welfare are theoretically poised to influence agricultural production systems (Campbell and Le Heron, 2007). Whether such influences might reverse or redirect the trend toward environmentally-damaging rampant productivism of the 20th century hinges in part on the subjective positions of farmers and the ways in which they inform how farmers respond to policy and market signals.In this paper we argue the need for a genuine engagement with both the complexities of farmer subjectivity and the interactions amongst farmer subjectivity and agro-ecologies, and animal bodies in particular. This paper presents a case study of sheep farmers on the South Island that reveals contestation and transitions in traditional markers of “good farming”, particularly animal health. We observe how such transitions arise from reconfigurations of the relationships between agro-ecological, political and social histories. In this paper’s formulation, neither state subsidies nor neoliberalism in agriculture is primary cause or ultimate effect of the transformation of agricultural practice. Rather, changes in the political economy expose contradictions in farmer subjectivities, the resolution of which may block or reinforce trends suggested by the political economy. We suggest that contested ideas about animal health within the social field of pastoral farming in New Zealand makes it possible that New Zealand’s sheep growers may take the high road of best environmental practice via highly audited environmental standards of production demanded by elite consumer markets, or that they may remain in the intensifying trajectory of continuing to drive the sheep’s body to its maximum possible intensity of production. The mixed legacy of neoliberal reform is that it has simultaneously enabled both of these contradictory trajectories in New Zealand pastoralism.     

Web-GIS tool for the management of rural land markets

Land abandonment and stagnation of rural markets in the last few years have become one of the main concerns of rural administrations. The use of Web and GIS (Geographic Information System) technologies can help to mitigate the effects of these problems. This paper pro-poses a novel Web-GIS tool with spatial capabilities for the dynamization of rural land markets by encouraging the transfer of land from owners to farmers through the leasing of plots. The system, based on open source software, offers information about the properties, their environment and their owners. It uses standards for handling the geographic information and for communicating with external data sources. This system was used as the basis for the development of SITEGAL, the tool for the management of the Land Bank of Galicia (www.bantegal.com/sitegal). SITEGAL has been operational since 2007 obtaining benefits for both administration and users (farmers and land owners), and promoting the e-Government.     

Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations

Accurate estimates of the duration of power outages caused by hurricanes prior to landfall are valuable for utility companies and government agencies that wish to plan and optimize their restoration efforts. Accurate pre-storm estimates are also important information for customers and operators of other infrastructures systems, who rely heavily on electricity. Traditionally, utilities make restoration plans based on managerial judgment and experience. However, skillful outage forecast models are conducive to improved decision-making practices by utilities and can greatly enhance storm preparation and restoration management procedures of power companies and emergency managers. This paper presents a novel statistical approach for estimating power outage durations that is 87 % more accurate than existing models in the literature. The power outage duration models are developed and carefully validated for outages caused by Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, and Ivan in a central Gulf Coast state. This paper identifies the key variables in predicting hurricane-induced outage durations and their degree of influence on predicting outage restoration for the utility company service area used as our case study.     

Water regulation and sustainability 1997-2001: Adoption or adaptation?

In 1997 there was a change in government in the UK with the Labour Party coming into power for the first time since 1979. Among the commitments made was the intention to put sustainability at the heart of government and decision-making. There was also a commitment to introduce reforms of the utility sector. In part this was a response to public concern over the conduct and behaviour of the privatised utilities, made more pertinent in the case of the water sector by the impact of several seasons of below average rainfall and high levels of leakage. In light of this the need for change took on a particular urgency. This paper examines some of the developments in water regulation under the 1997-2001 Labour administration. Through two sets of events; the 1997 Water Summit and the 1997-1999 Price Review the paper examines the discursive processes through which sustainability has been incorporated into water regulation. It discusses the changes in the practices of regulation and whether these could be characterised as the adoption of sustainability by the water sector or a strategy of adaptation to accommodate sustainability within an existing economic paradigm.     

Spatial modelling and uncertainty assessment of pyroclastic cover thickness in the Sorrento Peninsula

Assessing spatial variability of soil thickness is a critical issue for understanding and predicting slope processes. The present work was aimed at estimating the spatial scales at which the variation of pyroclastic cover thickness occurs in a sample area in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy). Stochastic simulation was used to understand the spatial variability of pyroclastic cover thickness on Mount Pendolo and to assess its spatial uncertainty. In the study area, covering about 0.7 km², thickness measurements were collected using electrical resistivity tomography profiles, continuous core drillings and steel rod penetrometric tests. Variographic analysis revealed the occurrence of an anisotropic behaviour along the N50 and N140 directions. In the latter anisotropic direction, a nested variogram was fitted including (1) a long-range component which could be related to large-scale factors, like the curvature of the slope and contributing area and (2) a shorter scale variation which is probably associated with the occurrence of denudation processes or to the articulate cover/bedrock interface. To assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of pyroclastic cover thickness, a stochastic simulation algorithm was used and 500 equally probable images of cover thickness were yielded. The results showed that a better thickness distribution map can be drawn by simulating the data collected on the slope and at the footslope separately. The approach also allowed delineating the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, suggesting supplementary measurements to further improve the cover thickness distribution model, thus reducing the uncertainty.     

低碳时代呼唤内蒙古中西部地区突破太阳能采暖系统的设计瓶颈

国民经济的发展,带动了能源需求量的日益增加,能源供应日显紧张。太阳能作为可再生能源的一种,取之不尽,用之不竭,同时又不会增加环境负荷,必将成为未来能源结构中的重要组成部分。我国建筑能耗中,生活热水、供暖耗能占了相当的比例,利用太阳能来满足生活热水、供暖等能耗需求具有巨大节能效益。内蒙古中西部地区具有太阳能利用的良好条件,太阳能热水已逐渐普及城乡,太阳能采暖技术却面临着设计的瓶颈。     

Studies of modern and ancient solar energetic particles

Modern solar energetic particles (SEPs) have been studied for about 50 years by satellites and groundbased observations. These measurements indicate much about the nature of SEPs but cover too short a period to quantify the probabilities of very large solar particle events. Many SEPs have high enough energies to make nuclides in material in which they interact. Radionuclides measured in lunar samples have been used to extend the record about SEPs back several million years. Some new measurements of modern SEPs during the last solar cycle and new results for nuclides made by SEPs in lunar samples are presented and their implications discussed. Both the modern and ancient records need to be improved, and methods to get a better understanding of solar energetic particles discussed. The fluxes of SEPs during the last million years show an increasing trend when averaged over shorter radionuclide half-lives.