The orbit and size distribution of small Solar System objects orbiting the Sun interior to the Earth's orbit

We present the first observational measurement of the orbit and size distribution of small Solar System objects whose orbits are wholly interior to the Earth's (Inner Earth Objects, IEOs, with aphelion <0.983 AU). We show that we are able to model the detections of near-Earth objects (NEO) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) using a detailed parameterization of the CSS survey cadence and detection efficiencies as implemented within the Jedicke et al. [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J.M., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33] survey simulator and utilizing the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] model of the NEO population's size and orbit distribution. We then show that the CSS detections of 4 IEOs are consistent with the Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] IEO model. Observational selection effects for the IEOs discovered by the CSS were then determined using the survey simulator in order to calculate the corrected number and H distribution of the IEOs. The actual number of IEOs with H<18 (21) is 36±26 (530±240) and the slope of the H magnitude distribution (∝¹⁰αH) for the IEOs is . The slope is consistent with previous measurements for the NEO population of αNEO=0.35±0.02 [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] and αNEO=0.39±0.013 [Stuart, J.S., Binzel, R.P., 2004. Icarus 170, 295-311]. Based on the agreement between the predicted and observed IEO orbit and absolute magnitude distributions there is no indication of any non-gravitational effects (e.g. Yarkovsky, tidal disruption) affecting the known IEO population.     

The size-frequency distribution of dormant Jupiter family comets

We estimate the total number and the slope of the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of dormant Jupiter family comets (JFCs) by fitting a one-parameter model to the known population. We first select 61 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that are likely to be dormant JFCs because their orbits are dynamically coupled to Jupiter [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002a. Icarus 156, 399-433]. Then, from the numerical simulations of Levison and Duncan [1997. Icarus 127, 13-32], we construct an orbit distribution model for JFCs in the NEO orbital element space. We assume an orbit-independent SFD for all JFCs, the slope of which is our unique free parameter. Finally, we compute observational biases for dormant JFCs using a calibrated NEO survey simulator [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33]. By fitting the biased model to the data, we estimate that there are ∼75 dormant JFCs with H<18 in the NEO region and that the slope of their cumulative SFD is −1.5±0.3. Our slope for the SFD of dormant JFCs is very close to that of active JFCs as determined by Weissman and Lowry [2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34. Abstract 2003]. Thus, we argue that when JFCs fade they are likely to become dormant rather than to disrupt and that the fate of faded comets is size-independent. Our results imply that the size distribution of the JFC progenitors—the scattered disk trans-neptunian population—either (i) has a similar and shallow SFD or (i^′) is slightly steeper and physical processes acting on the comets in a size-dependent manner creates the shallower active comet SFD. Our measured slope, typical of collisionally evolved populations with a size-dependent impact strength [Benz, W., Asphaug, E., 1999. Icarus 142, 5-20], suggests that scattered disk bodies reached collisional equilibrium inside the protoplanetary disk prior to their removal from the planetary region.     

Comets in the near-Earth object population

Because the lifespan of near-Earth objects (NEOs) is shorter than the age of the Solar System, these objects originate elsewhere. Their most likely sources are the main asteroid belt and comets. Through physical observations we seek to identify potential dormant or extinct comets among “asteroids” catalogued as NEOs and thereby determine the fraction of “comet candidates” within the total NEO population. Both discovery statistics and dynamical models indicate that candidate cometary objects in near-Earth space are predominantly found among those having a jovian Tisserand parameter Tj<3. Therefore, we seek to identify comet candidates among asteroid-like NEOs using three criteria: Tj<3, spectral parameters (C, D, T, or P taxonomic types), and/or low (<0.075) albedos. We present new observations for 20 NEOs having Tj<3, consisting of visible spectra, near-infrared spectra, and/or albedo measurements obtained using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility, the Kitt Peak National Observatory 4 m, and the Magellan Observatory 6.5-m. Four of our “asteroid” targets have been subsequently confirmed as low activity comets. Thus our sample includes spectra of the nuclei of Comets 2002 EX12 = 169P (NEAT), 2001 WF2 = 182P (LONEOS), 2003 WY25 = D/1891 W1 (Blanplain), and Halley Family Comet 2006 HR30 = P/2006 HR30 (Siding Spring). From the available literature, we tabulate physical properties for 55 NEOs having Tj<3, and after accounting for possible bias effects, we estimate that 54±10% of NEOs in Tj<3 orbits have “comet-like” spectra or albedos. Bias corrected discovery statistics [Stuart, J.S., Binzel, R.P., 2004. Icarus 170, 295-311] estimate 30±5% of the entire NEO population resides in orbits having Tj<3. Combining these two factors suggests that 16±5% of the total discovered “asteroid-like” NEO population has “comet-like” dynamical and physical properties. Outer main-belt asteroids typically have similar taxonomic and albedo properties as our “comet candidates.” Using the model of Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.M., Levison, H., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433] to evaluate source region probabilities, we conclude that 8±5% of the total asteroid-like NEO population have the requisite orbital properties, physical properties, and dynamical likelihood to have originated as comets from the outer Solar System.     

Size-frequency distributions of fragments from SPH/N-body simulations of asteroid impacts: Comparison with observed asteroid families

We investigate the morphology of size-frequency distributions (SFDs) resulting from impacts into 100-km-diameter parent asteroids, represented by a suite of 161 SPH/N-body simulations conducted to study asteroid satellite formation [Durda, D.D., Bottke, W.F., Enke, B.L., Merline, W.J., Asphaug, E., Richardson, D.C., Leinhardt, Z.M., 2004. Icarus 170, 243-257]. The spherical basalt projectiles range in diameter from 10 to 46 km (in equally spaced mass increments in logarithmic space, covering six discrete sizes), impact speeds range from 2.5 to 7 km/s (generally in 1 km/s increments), and impact angles range from 15° to 75° (nearly head-on to very oblique) in 15° increments. These modeled SFD morphologies match very well the observed SFDs of many known asteroid families. We use these modeled SFDs to scale to targets both larger and smaller than 100 km in order to gain insights into the circumstances of the impacts that formed these families. Some discrepancies occur for families with parent bodies smaller than a few tens of kilometers in diameter (e.g., 832 Karin), however, so due caution should be used in applying our results to such small families. We find that ∼20 observed main-belt asteroid families are produced by the catastrophic disruption of D>100 km parent bodies. Using these data as constraints, collisional modeling work [Bottke Jr., W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H.F., 2005b. Icarus 179, 63-94] suggests that the threshold specific energy, , needed to eject 50% of the target body's mass is very close to that predicted by Benz and Asphaug [Benz, W., Asphaug, E., 1999. Icarus 142, 5-20].     

The orbital distribution of Near-Earth Objects inside Earth’s orbit

Canada’s Near-Earth Object Surveillance Satellite (NEOSSat), set to launch in early 2012, will search for and track Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), tuning its search to best detect objects with a < 1.0 AU. In order to construct an optimal pointing strategy for NEOSSat, we needed more detailed information in the a < 1.0 AU region than the best current model (Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S. [2002]. Icarus 156, 399–433) provides. We present here the NEOSSat-1.0 NEO orbital distribution model with larger statistics that permit finer resolution and less uncertainty, especially in the a < 1.0 AU region. We find that Amors = 30.1 ± 0.8%, Apollos = 63.3 ± 0.4%, Atens = 5.0 ± 0.3%, Atiras (0.718 < Q < 0.983 AU) = 1.38 ± 0.04%, and Vatiras (0.307 < Q < 0.718 AU) = 0.22 ± 0.03% of the steady-state NEO population. Vatiras are a previously undiscussed NEO population clearly defined in our integrations, whose orbits lie completely interior to that of Venus. Our integrations also uncovered the unexpected production of retrograde orbits from main-belt asteroid sources; this retrograde NEA population makes up ?0.1% of the steady-state NEO population. The relative NEO impact rate onto Mercury, Venus, and Earth, as well as the normalized distribution of impact speeds, was calculated from the NEOSSat-1.0 orbital model under the assumption of a steady-state. The new model predicts a slightly higher Mercury impact flux.     

Linking the collisional history of the main asteroid belt to its dynamical excitation and depletion

The main belt is believed to have originally contained an Earth mass or more of material, enough to allow the asteroids to accrete on relatively short timescales. The present-day main belt, however, only contains ∼5×¹⁰⁻⁴ Earth masses. Numerical simulations suggest that this mass loss can be explained by the dynamical depletion of main belt material via gravitational perturbations from planetary embryos and a newly-formed Jupiter. To explore this scenario, we combined dynamical results from Petit et al. [Petit, J. Morbidelli, A., Chambers, J., 2001. The primordial excitation and clearing of the asteroid belt. Icarus 153, 338-347] with a collisional evolution code capable of tracking how the main belt undergoes comminution and dynamical depletion over 4.6 Gyr [Bottke, W.F., Durda, D., Nesvorny, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H., 2005. The fossilized size distribution of the main asteroid belt. Icarus 175, 111-140]. Our results were constrained by the main belt's size-frequency distribution, the number of asteroid families produced by disruption events from diameter D>100 km parent bodies over the last 3-4 Gyr, the presence of a single large impact crater on Vesta's intact basaltic crust, and the relatively constant lunar and terrestrial impactor flux over the last 3 Gyr. We used our model to set limits on the initial size of the main belt as well as Jupiter's formation time. We find the most likely formation time for Jupiter was 3.3±2.6 Myr after the onset of fragmentation in the main belt. These results are consistent with the estimated mean disk lifetime of 3 Myr predicted by Haisch et al. [Haisch, K.E., Lada, E.A., Lada, C.J., 2001. Disk frequencies and lifetimes in young clusters. Astrophys. J. 553, L153-L156]. The post-accretion main belt population, in the form of diameter D?1000 km planetesimals, was likely to have been 160±40 times the current main belt's mass. This corresponds to 0.06-0.1 Earth masses, only a small fraction of the total mass thought to have existed in the main belt zone during planet formation. The remaining mass was most likely taken up by planetary embryos formed in the same region. Our results suggest that numerous D>200 km planetesimals disrupted early in Solar System history, but only a small fraction of their fragments survived the dynamical depletion event described above. We believe this may explain the limited presence of iron-rich M-type, olivine-rich A-type, and non-Vesta V-type asteroids in the main belt today. The collisional lifetimes determined for main belt asteroids agree with the cosmic ray exposure ages of stony meteorites and are consistent with the limited collisional evolution detected among large Koronis family members. Using the same model, we investigated the near-Earth object (NEO) population. We show the shape of the NEO size distribution is a reflection of the main belt population, with main belt asteroids driven to resonances by Yarkovsky thermal forces. We used our model of the NEO population over the last 3 Gyr, which is consistent with the current population determined by telescopic and satellite data, to explore whether the majority of small craters (D<0.1-1 km) formed on Mercury, the Moon, and Mars were produced by primary impacts or by secondary impacts generated by ejecta from large craters. Our results suggest that most small craters formed on these worlds were a by-product of secondary rather than primary impacts.     

Nonuniform cratering of the terrestrial planets

We estimate the impact flux and cratering rate as a function of latitude on the terrestrial planets using a model distribution of planet crossing asteroids and comets [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433]. After determining the planetary impact probabilities as a function of the relative encounter velocity and encounter inclination, the impact positions are calculated analytically, assuming the projectiles follow hyperbolic paths during the encounter phase. As the source of projectiles is not isotropic, latitudinal variations of the impact flux are predicted: the calculated ratio between the pole and equator is 1.05 for Mercury, 1.00 for Venus, 0.96 for the Earth, 0.90 for the Moon, and 1.14 for Mars over its long-term obliquity variation history. By taking into account the latitudinal dependence of the impact velocity and impact angle, and by using a crater scaling law that depends on the vertical component of the impact velocity, the latitudinal variations of the cratering rate (the number of craters with a given size formed per unit time and unit area) is in general enhanced. With respect to the equator, the polar cratering rate is about 30% larger on Mars and 10% on Mercury, whereas it is 10% less on the Earth and 20% less on the Moon. The cratering rate is found to be uniform on Venus. The relative global impact fluxes on Mercury, Venus, the Earth and Mars are calculated with respect to the Moon, and we find values of 1.9, 1.8, 1.6, and 2.8, respectively. Our results show that the relative shape of the crater size-frequency distribution does not noticeably depend upon latitude for any of the terrestrial bodies in this study. Nevertheless, by neglecting the expected latitudinal variations of the cratering rate, systematic errors of 20-30% in the age of planetary surfaces could exist between equatorial and polar regions when using the crater chronology method.     

Asteroid age distributions determined by space weathering and collisional evolution models

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid’s surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. [2005]. Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezi?, ?. [2005]. Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object’s diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid’s surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. [2010]. Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezi?, ?., Juri?, M. [2004]. Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezi?, ?., Fevig, R. [2008]. Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the ‘dual τ’ space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010).We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τ_w = 2050 ± 80 Myr and respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of −0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of ΔPC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC₁ = 0.17 ± 0.39.     

Craters on asteroids: Reconciling diverse impact records with a common impacting population

O'Brien and Greenberg [O'Brien, D.P., Greenberg, R., 2005. Icarus 178, 179-212] developed a self-consistent numerical model of the collisional and dynamical evolution of the main-belt and NEA populations that was tested against a diverse range of observational and theoretical constraints. In this paper, we use those results to update the asteroid cratering model of Greenberg et al. [Greenberg, R., Nolan, M.C., Bottke, W.F., Kolvoord, R.A., Veverka, J., 1994. Icarus 107, 84-97; Greenberg, R., Bottke, W.F., Nolan, M., Geissler, P., Petit, J., Durda, D.D., Asphaug, E., Head, J., 1996. Icarus 120, 106-118], and show that the main-belt asteroid population from the O'Brien and Greenberg collisional/dynamical evolution modeling is consistent with the crater records on Gaspra, Ida, Mathilde, and Eros, the four asteroids that have been observed by spacecraft.     

Cratering saturation and equilibrium: A new model looks at an old problem

Recent advances in computing technology and our understanding of the processes involved in crater production, ejecta production, and crater erasure have permitted me to develop a highly-detailed Cratered Terrain Evolution Model (CTEM), which can be used to investigate a variety of questions in the study of impact dominated landscapes. In this work, I focus on the manner in which crater densities on impacted surfaces attain equilibrium conditions (commonly called crater ‘saturation’) for a variety of impactor population size-frequency distributions: from simple, straight-line power-laws, to complex, multi-sloped distributions. This modeling shows that crater density equilibrium generally occurs near observed relative-density (R) values of 0.1-0.3 (commonly called ‘empirical saturation’), but that when the impactor population has a variable power-law slope, crater density equilibrium values will also be variable, and will continue to reflect, or follow the shape of the production population long after the surface has been ‘saturated.’ In particular, I demonstrate that the overall level of crater density curves for heavily-cratered regions of the lunar surface are indicative of crater density equilibrium having been reached, while the shape of these curves strongly point to a Main Asteroid Belt (MAB) source for impactors in the near-Earth environment, as originally stipulated in Strom et al. [Strom, R.G., Malhotra, R., Ito, T., Yoshida, F., Kring, D.A., 2005. Science 309 (September), 1847-1850]. This modeling also validates the conclusion by Bottke et al. [Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H., 2005. Icarus 175 (May), 111-140] that the modern-day MAB continues to reflect its ancient size-frequency distribution, even though severely depleted in mass since that time.     

Initial sizes of planetesimals and accretion of the asteroids

The present size frequency distribution (SFD) of bodies in the asteroid belt appears to have preserved some record of the primordial population, with an excess of bodies of diameter D ∼ 100 km relative to a simple power law. The survival of Vesta’s basaltic crust also implies that the early SFD had a shallow slope in the range ∼10-100 km. (Morbidelli, A., Bottke, W.F., Nesvorny, D., Levison, H.F. [2009]. Icarus 204, 558-573) were unable to produce these features by accretion from an initial population of km-sized planetesimals. They concluded that bodies with sizes in the range ∼100-1000 km and a SFD similar to the current population were produced directly from solid particles of sub-meter scale, without experiencing accretion through intermediate sizes. We present results of new accretion simulations in the primordial asteroid region. The requisite SFD can be produced from an initial population of planetesimals of sizes ?0.1 km, smaller than the usual assumption of km-sized bodies. The bump at D ∼ 100 km is produced by a transition from dispersion-dominated runaway growth to a regime dominated by Keplerian shear, before the formation of large protoplanetary embryos. Thus, accretion of the asteroids from an initial population of small (sub-km) planetesimals cannot be ruled out.     

Earth and space-based NEO survey simulations: prospects for achieving the spaceguard goal

We have used an improved model of the orbit and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) to simulate the performance of asteroid surveys. Our results support general conclusions of previous studies using preliminary Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) orbit and magnitude distributions and suggest that meeting the Spaceguard Goal of 90% completion for Near Earth Objects (NEOs) greater than 1 km diameter by 2008 is impossible given contemporary surveying capabilities.The NEO model was derived from NEO detections by the Spacewatch Project. For this paper we developed a simulator for the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) for which we had a complete pointing history and NEO detection efficiency. The good match between the output of the simulator and the actual CSS performance gives confidence that both the NEO model and simulator are correct. Then, in order to determine if existing surveys can meet the Spaceguard Goal, we developed a simulator to mimic the LINEAR survey, for which detailed performance characteristics were unavailable. This simulator serendipitously provided an estimate for the currently undiscovered population of NEOs upon which we base all our estimates of time to 90% completion. We also developed a set of idealized NEO surveys in order to constrain the best possible survey performance in contrast to more realistic systems.A 100% efficient, all-sky, every night survey, subject only to the constraints of detection above a specified air mass and when the Sun is 18° below the horizon provides a benchmark from which to examine the effect of imposing more restrictions and the efficacy of some simple survey strategies. Such a survey must have a limiting V-magnitude of 20.1 ± 0.2 to meet the Spaceguard Goal.More realistic surveys, limited by latitude, the galaxy, minimum rates of NEO motion, etc., require fainter limiting magnitudes to reach the same completion. Our most realistic simulations, which have been normalized to the performance of the LINEAR detector system’s operation in the period 1999-2000, indicate that it would take them another 33 ± 5 years to reach 90% completeness for the larger asteroids (?1 km diameter). They would need to immediately increase the limiting magnitude to about 24 in order to meet the Spaceguard Goal.The simulations suggest that there may be little need for distributing survey telescopes in longitude and latitude as long as there is sufficient sky coverage from a telescope or network of telescopes which may be geographically close. An idealized space-based survey, especially from a satellite orbit much interior to Earth, would offer an advantage over their terrestrial counterparts. We do not consider a cost-benefit analysis for any of the simulations but suspect that a local-area network of telescopes capable of covering much of the sky in a month to V ∼ 21.5 may be administratively, financially, and scientifically the best compromise for reaching 90% completion of NEOs larger than 1 km diameter.     

Near-nucleus photometry of comets using archived NEAT data

Though optimized to discover and track fast moving Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT) survey dataset can be mined to obtain information on the comet population observed serendipitously during the asteroid survey. We have completed analysis of over 400 CCD images of comets obtained during the autonomous operations of two 1.2-m telescopes: the first on the summit of Haleakala on the Hawaiian island of Maui and the second on Palomar Mountain in southern California. Photometric calibrations of each frame were derived using background catalog stars and the near-nucleus comet photometry measured. We measured dust production and normalized magnitudes for the coma and nucleus in order to explore cometary activity and comet size-frequency distributions. Our data over an approximately two-year time frame (2001 August-2003 February) include 52 comets: 12 periodic, 19 numbered, and 21 non-periodic, obtained over a wide range of viewing geometries and helio/geocentric distances. Nuclear magnitudes were estimated for a subset of comets observed. We found that for low-activity comets (Afρ<100 cm) our model gave reasonable estimates for nuclear size and magnitude. The slope of the cumulative luminosity function of our sample of low-activity comets was 0.33 ± 0.04, consistent with the slope we measured for the Jupiter-family cometary nuclei collected by Fernández et al. [Fernández, J.A., Tancredi, G., Rickman, H., Licandro, J., 1999. Astron. Astrophys. 392, 327-340] of 0.38 ± 0.02. Our slopes of the cumulative size distribution α=1.50±0.08 agree well with the slopes measured by Whitman et al. [Whitman, K., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., 2006. Icarus 183, 101-114], Meech et al. [Meech, K.J., Hainaut, O.R., Marsden, B.G., 2004. Icarus 170, 463-491], Lowry et al. [Lowry, S.C., Fitzsimmons, A., Collander-Brown, S., 2003. Astron. Astrophys. 397, 329-343], and Weissman and Lowry [Weissman, P.R., Lowry, S.C., 2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34. Abstract 34].     

The colors of cometary nuclei—Comparison with other primitive bodies of the Solar System and implications for their origin

We present new color results of cometary nuclei obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) whose superior resolution enables us to accurately isolate the nucleus signals from the surrounding comae. By combining with scrutinized available data obtained with ground-based telescopes, we accumulated a sample of 51 cometary nuclei, 44 ecliptic comets (ECs) and 7 nearly-isotropic comets (NICs) using the nomenclature of Levison [Levison, H.F., 1996. In: Rettig, T.W., Hahn, J.M. (Eds.), Completing the Inventory of the Solar System. In: ASP Conf. Ser., vol. 107, pp. 173-192]. We analyze color distributions and color-color correlations as well as correlations with other physical parameters. We present our compilation of colors of 232 outer Solar System objects—separately considering the different dynamical populations, classical KBOs in low and high-inclination orbits (respectively CKBO-LI and CKBO-HI), resonant KBOs (practically Plutinos), scattered-disk objects (SDOs) and Centaurs—of 12 candidate dead comets, and of 85 Trojans. We perform a systematic analysis of all color distributions, and conclude by synthesizing the implications of the dynamical evolution and of the colors for the origin of the minor bodies of the Solar System. We find that the color distributions are remarkably consistent with the scenarios of the formation of TNOs by Gomes [Gomes, R.S., 2003. Icarus 161, 404-418] generalized by the “Nice” model [Levison, H.F., Morbidelli, A., VanLaerhoven, Ch., Gomes, R., Tsiganis, L., 2008. Icarus 196, 258-273], and of the Trojans by Morbidelli et al. [Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465]. The color distributions of the Centaurs are globally similar to those of the CKBO-HI, the Plutinos and the SDOs. However the potential bimodality of their distributions allows to possibly distinguish two groups based on their (B−R) index: Centaur I with (B−R)>1.7 and Centaurs II with (B−R)<1.4. Centaurs I could be composed of TNOs (prominently CKBO-LI) and ultra red objects from a yet unstudied family. Centaurs II could consist in a population of evolved objects which have already visited the inner Solar System, and which has been scattered back beyond Jupiter. The diversity of colors of the ECs, in particular the existence of very red objects, is consistent with an origin in the Kuiper belt. Candidate dead comets represent an ultimate state of evolution as they appear more evolved than the Trojans and Centaurs II.     

The primordial excitation and clearing of the asteroid belt—Revisited

We have performed new simulations of two different scenarios for the excitation and depletion of the primordial asteroid belt, assuming Jupiter and Saturn on initially circular orbits as predicted by the Nice Model of the evolution of the outer Solar System [Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A., 2005. Nature 435, 466-469; Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465]. First, we study the effects of sweeping secular resonances driven by the depletion of the solar nebula. We find that these sweeping secular resonances are incapable of giving sufficient dynamical excitation to the asteroids for nebula depletion timescales consistent with estimates for solar-type stars, and in addition cannot cause significant mass depletion in the asteroid belt or produce the observed radial mixing of different asteroid taxonomic types. Second, we study the effects of planetary embryos embedded in the primordial asteroid belt. These embedded planetary embryos, combined with the action of jovian and saturnian resonances, can lead to dynamical excitation and radial mixing comparable to the current asteroid belt. The mass depletion driven by embedded planetary embryos alone, even in the case of an eccentric Jupiter and Saturn, is roughly 10-20× less than necessary to explain the current mass of the main belt, and thus a secondary depletion event, such as that which occurs naturally in the Nice Model, is required. We discuss the implications of our new simulations for the dynamical and collisional evolution of the main belt.     

Making the Earth: Combining dynamics and chemistry in the Solar System

No terrestrial planet formation simulation completed to date has considered the detailed chemical composition of the planets produced. While many have considered possible water contents and late veneer compositions, none have examined the bulk elemental abundances of the planets produced as an important check of formation models. Here we report on the first study of this type. Bulk elemental abundances based on disk equilibrium studies have been determined for the simulated terrestrial planets of O’Brien et al. [O’Brien, D.P., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2006. Icarus 184, 39-58]. These abundances are in excellent agreement with observed planetary values, indicating that the models of O’Brien et al. [O’Brien, D.P., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2006. Icarus 184, 39-58] are successfully producing planets comparable to those of the Solar System in terms of both their dynamical and chemical properties. Significant amounts of water are accreted in the present simulations, implying that the terrestrial planets form “wet” and do not need significant water delivery from other sources. Under the assumption of equilibrium controlled chemistry, the biogenic species N and C still need to be delivered to the Earth as they are not accreted in significant proportions during the formation process. Negligible solar photospheric pollution is produced by the planetary formation process. Assuming similar levels of pollution in other planetary systems, this in turn implies that the high metallicity trend observed in extrasolar planetary systems is in fact primordial.     

Identifying near-Earth object families

The study of asteroid families has provided tremendous insight into the forces that sculpted the main belt and continue to drive the collisional and dynamical evolution of asteroids. The identification of asteroid families within the NEO population could provide a similar boon to studies of their formation and interiors. In this study we examine the purported identification of NEO families by Drummond [Drummond, J.D., 2000. Icarus 146, 453-475] and conclude that it is unlikely that they are anything more than random fluctuations in the distribution of NEO osculating orbital elements. We arrive at this conclusion after examining the expected formation rate of NEO families, the identification of NEO groups in synthetic populations that contain no genetically related NEOs, the orbital evolution of the largest association identified by Drummond [Drummond, J.D., 2000. Icarus 146, 453-475], and the decoherence of synthetic NEO families intended to reproduce the observed members of the same association. These studies allowed us to identify a new criterion that can be used to select real NEO families for further study in future analyses, based on the ratio of the number of pairs and the size of strings to the number of objects in an identified association.     

The formation of Uranus and Neptune in solid-rich feeding zones: Connecting chemistry and dynamics

The core accretion theory of planet formation has at least two fundamental problems explaining the origins of Uranus and Neptune: (1) dynamical times in the trans-saturnian solar nebula are so long that core growth can take >15 Myr and (2) the onset of runaway gas accretion that begins when cores reach ∼10M_⊕ necessitates a sudden gas accretion cutoff just as Uranus and Neptune’s cores reach critical mass. Both problems may be resolved by allowing the ice giants to migrate outward after their formation in solid-rich feeding zones with planetesimal surface densities well above the minimum-mass solar nebula. We present new simulations of the formation of Uranus and Neptune in the solid-rich disk of Dodson-Robinson et al. (Dodson-Robinson, S.E., Willacy, K., Bodenheimer, P., Turner, N.J., Beichman, C.A. [2009]. Icarus 200, 672-693) using the initial semimajor axis distribution of the Nice model (Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A. [2005]. Nature 435, 466-469; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R. [2005]. Nature 435, 462-465; Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F. [2005]. Nature 435, 459-461), with one ice giant forming at 12 AU and the other at 15 AU. The innermost ice giant reaches its present mass after 3.8-4.0 Myr and the outermost after 5.3-6 Myr, a considerable time decrease from previous one-dimensional simulations (e.g. Pollack, J.B., Hubickyj, O., Bodenheimer, P., Lissauer, J.J., Podolak, M., Greenzweig, Y. [1996]. Icarus 124, 62-85). The core masses stay subcritical, eliminating the need for a sudden gas accretion cutoff.Our calculated carbon mass fractions of 22% are in excellent agreement with the ice giant interior models of Podolak et al. (Podolak, M., Weizman, A., Marley, M. [1995]. Planet. Space Sci. 43, 1517-1522) and Marley et al. (Marley, M.S., Gómez, P., Podolak, M. [1995]. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 23349-23354). Based on the requirement that the ice giant-forming planetesimals contain >10% mass fractions of methane ice, we can reject any Solar System formation model that initially places Uranus and Neptune inside of Saturn’s orbit. We also demonstrate that a large population of planetesimals must be present in both ice giant feeding zones throughout the lifetime of the gaseous nebula. This research marks a substantial step forward in connecting both the dynamical and chemical aspects of planet formation. Although we cannot say that the solid-rich solar nebula model of Dodson-Robinson et al. (Dodson-Robinson, S.E., Willacy, K., Bodenheimer, P., Turner, N.J., Beichman, C.A. [2009]. Icarus 200, 672-693) gives exactly the appropriate initial conditions for planet formation, rigorous chemical and dynamical tests have at least revealed it to be a viable model of the early Solar System.     

Did Saturn's rings form during the Late Heavy Bombardment?

The origin of Saturn's massive ring system is still unknown. Two popular scenarios—the tidal splitting of passing comets and the collisional destruction of a satellite—rely on a high cometary flux in the past. In the present paper we attempt to quantify the cometary flux during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) to assess the likelihood of both scenarios. Our analysis relies on the so-called “Nice model” of the origin of the LHB [Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., 2005. Nature 435, 459-461; Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.H., Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., 2005. Nature 435, 462-465; Gomes, R., Levison, H.F., Tsiganis, K., Morbidelli, A., 2005. Nature 435, 466-469] and on the size distribution of the primordial trans-neptunian planetesimals constrained in [Charnoz, S., Morbidelli, A., 2007. Icarus 188, 468-480]. We find that the cometary flux on Saturn during the LHB was so high that both scenarios for the formation of Saturn rings are viable in principle. However, a more detailed study shows that the comet tidal disruption scenario implies that all four giant planets should have comparable ring systems whereas the destroyed satellite scenario would work only for Saturn, and perhaps Jupiter. This is because in Saturn's system, the synchronous orbit is interior to the Roche Limit, which is a necessary condition for maintaining a satellite in the Roche Zone up to the time of the LHB. We also discuss the apparent elimination of silicates from the ring parent body implied by the purity of the ice in Saturn's rings. The LHB has also strong implications for the survival of the saturnian satellites: all satellites smaller than Mimas would have been destroyed during the LHB, whereas Enceladus would have had from 40% to 70% chance of survival depending on the disruption model. In conclusion, these results suggest that the LHB is the “sweet moment” for the formation of a massive ring system around Saturn.     

Reassessing the origin of Triton

The origin of Neptune’s large, circular but retrograde satellite Triton has remained largely unexplained. There is an apparent consensus that its origin lies in it being captured, but until recently no successful capture mechanism has been found. Agnor and Hamilton (Agnor, C.B., Hamilton, D.P. [2006]. Nature 441, 192-194) demonstrated that the disruption of a trans-neptunian binary object which had Triton as a member, and which underwent a very close encounter with Neptune, was an effective mechanism to capture Triton while its former partner continued on a hyperbolic orbit. The subsequent evolution of Triton’s post-capture orbit to its current one could have proceeded through gravitational tides (Correia, A.C.M. [2009]. Astrophys. J. 704, L1-L4), during which time Triton was most likely semi-molten (McKinnon, W.B. [1984]. Nature 311, 355-358). However, to date, no study has been performed that considered both the capture and the subsequent tidal evolution. Thus it is attempted here with the use of numerical simulations. The study by Agnor and Hamilton (Agnor, C.B., Hamilton, D.P. [2006]. Nature 441, 192-194) is repeated in the framework of the Nice model (Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F. [2005]. Nature 435, 459-461) to determine the post-capture orbit of Triton. After capture Triton is then subjected to tidal evolution using the model of Mignard (Mignard, F. [1979]. Moon Planets 20, 301-315; Mignard, F. [1980]. Moon Planets 23, 185-201). The perturbations from the Sun and the figure of Neptune are included. The perturbations from the Sun acting on Triton just after its capture cause it to spend a long time in its high-eccentricity phase, usually of the order of 10 Myr, while the typical time to circularise to its current orbit is some 200 Myr, consistent with earlier studies. The current orbit of Triton is consistent with an origin through binary capture and tidal evolution, even though the model prefers Triton to be closer to Neptune than it is today. The probability of capturing Triton in this manner is approximately 0.7%. Since the capture of Triton was at most a 50% event - since only Neptune has one, but Uranus does not - we deduce that in the primordial trans-neptunian disc there were some 100 binaries with at least one Triton-sized member. Morbidelli et al. (Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Bottke, W.F., Dones, L., Nesvorný, D. [2009]. Icarus 202, 310-315) concludes there were some 1000 Triton-sized bodies in the trans-neptunian proto-planetary disc, so the primordial binary fraction with at least one Triton-sized member is 10%. This value is consistent with theoretical predictions, but at the low end. If Triton was captured at the same time as Neptune’s irregular satellites, the far majority of these, including Nereid, would be lost. This suggests either that Triton was captured on an orbit with a small semi-major axisa ? 50R_N (a rare event), or that it was captured before the dynamical instability of the Nice model, or that some other mechanism was at play. The issue of keeping the irregular satellites remains unresolved.