Seismicity of Ruapehu volcano,New Zealand, 1971–1996: a review

From 1971 until 1995, the style of seismicity at Ruapehu changed little, reflecting a period of relatively low eruptive activity and consequent long-term stability within the vent system. Volcanic earthquakes and volcanic tremor were both dominated by a frequency of about 2 Hz. Volcanic earthquakes accompanied all phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions, but not small hydrothermal eruptions that originated within Crater Lake. Furthermore, more than half of the M_L>3 volcanic earthquakes and changes in the reduced displacement of 2 Hz volcanic tremor by as much as a factor of 20 occurred without any accompanying eruptive activity. Three and 7 Hz volcanic tremor were also recorded, although never at lower-elevation seismometers. At times, this tremor was stronger at the summit seismometer than the 2 Hz tremor. Their source regions were independent of the 2 Hz source, and located at shallower depths. Volcano-tectonic earthquakes were generally unrelated to eruptive activity. The seismicity accompanying the 1995–1996 eruptive activity was significantly different from that of the period 1971 to 1995, and included volcanic tremor with a frequency of less than 1 Hz, simultaneous changes in the amplitude of the previously independent 2 Hz and 7 Hz volcanic tremor, and finally a change in the frequency content of volcanic earthquakes and volcanic tremor from 2 Hz to wideband. Path transmission effects play an important role in determining the characteristics of seismograms at Ruapehu. The presence of Crater Lake affects both the style of eruptions and the accompanying seismicity.     

Observations of mount etna seismicity during the 2002–2003 eruption based on deep-sea gravimeter data

This paper concerns observations made by a broadband deep-sea gravimeter installed on the plat-form of the SN-1 multiparameter seafloor observatory. The observatory was deployed at a distance of 25 km from the east coast of Sicily in southern Italy at a depth of 2105 m and was operated in a self-contained mode from October 2002 to February 2003 (134 days). The proximity to Mount Etna and the period of eruptive activity starting in late October 2002 lent added interest to this experiment. The seismic activity of Mount Etna, as recorded by the gravimeter, is characterized by the presence of two signal types, viz., a long-period volcanic tremor of variable amplitude and volcano-tectonic earthquakes. The bulk of energy in the long-period tremor occurs in the spectral interval between 2 and 5 s. The long-period seismic signals due to volcanic and global earthquakes were used to estimate resonant characteristics for Etna’s heterogeneous structures.     

Array analyses of volcanic earthquakes and tremor recorded at Las Cañadas caldera (Tenerife Island, Spain) during the 2004 seismic activation of Teide volcano

We analyze data from three seismic antennas deployed in Las Cañadas caldera (Tenerife) during May–July 2004. The period selected for the analysis (May 12–31, 2004) constitutes one of the most active seismic episodes reported in the area, except for the precursory seismicity accompanying historical eruptions. Most seismic signals recorded by the antennas were volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes. They usually exhibited low magnitudes, although some of them were large enough to be felt at nearby villages. A few long-period (LP) events, generally associated with the presence of volcanic fluids in the medium, were also detected. Furthermore, we detected the appearance of a continuous tremor that started on May 18 and lasted for several weeks, at least until the end of the recording period. It is the first time that volcanic tremor has been reported at Teide volcano. This tremor was a small-amplitude, narrow-band signal with central frequency in the range 1–6 Hz. It was detected at the three antennas located in Las Cañadas caldera. We applied the zero-lag cross-correlation (ZLCC) method to estimate the propagation parameters (back-azimuth and apparent slowness) of the recorded signals. For VT earthquakes, we also determined the S–P times and source locations. Our results indicate that at the beginning of the analyzed period most earthquakes clustered in a deep volume below the northwest flank of Teide volcano. The similarity of the propagation parameters obtained for LP events and these early VT earthquakes suggests that LP events might also originate within the source volume of the VT cluster. During the last two weeks of May, VT earthquakes were generally shallower, and spread all over Las Cañadas caldera. Finally, the analysis of the tremor wavefield points to the presence of multiple, low-energy sources acting simultaneously. We propose a model to explain the pattern of seismicity observed at Teide volcano. The process started in early April with a deep magma injection under the northwest flank of Teide volcano, related to a basaltic magma chamber inferred by geological and geophysical studies. The stress changes associated with the injection produced the deep VT cluster. In turn, the occurrence of earthquakes permitted an enhanced supply of fresh magmatic gases toward the surface. This gas flow induced the generation of LP events. The gases permeated the volcanic edifice, producing lubrication of pre-existing fractures and thus favoring the occurrence of VT earthquakes. On May 18, the flow front reached the shallow aquifer located under Las Cañadas caldera. The induced instability constituted the driving mechanism of the observed tremor.     

Temporal change of characteristics of shallow volcano-tectonic earthquakes associated with increase in volcanic activity at Kuchinoerabujima volcano, Japan

Shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes recorded at the Kuchinoerabujima island volcano in southwest Japan are analyzed in order to clarify the role of hydrothermal activity in the development of volcanic seismicity. From analysis of shallow VT earthquakes in 2006, two specific episodes of elevated seismicity are observed in April and November 2006. The VT earthquakes have hypocenters at depths of 0–0.4 km beneath the summit crater, and normal fault focal mechanisms with WNW–ESE extension consistent with the tensional stress field indicated by the alignment of craters and fissures. Although the hypocenters and focal mechanisms are found to be largely invariant during these episodes, the corner frequencies of the VT earthquakes underwent a pronounced increase and decrease accompanying the changes in seismicity rates. The corner frequencies increased to 20–25 Hz approximately one month prior to the onset of elevated seismicity, and then decreased to 10–15 Hz in the period of peak seismicity. The rupture length also decreased at the onset of seismicity, thereafter increasing as the seismicity continued. The peak seismicity in terms of the daily number of VT events was accompanied by inflation around the crater, suggestive of a pressure increase in the volcanic system. It is inferred that the increase in shallow VT seismicity and rupture length is related to the development of a fractured zone. The pressure increase in the volcanic system is attributed to the intrusion of hydrothermal fluids, which is supported by an observed increase in fumarolic temperature and activity. The preceding monochromatic events are thus considered to be generated by the effect of fluid-filled cracks. The shortening of rupture length is then inferred to be related to the closing of non-fluid-filled cracks in the fracture zone under the increasing pressure field, leading to a transition from monochromatic events to low-frequency and shallow VT seismicity.     

Eruption-induced modifications to volcanic seismicity at Ruapehu,New Zealand,and its implications for eruption forecasting

Broadband seismic data collected on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, in 1994 and 1998 show that the 1995-1996 eruptions of Ruapehu resulted in a significant change in the frequency content of tremor and volcanic earthquakes at the volcano. The pre-eruption volcanic seismicity was characterized by several independent dominant frequencies, with a 2 Hz spectral peak dominating the strongest tremor and volcanic earthquakes and higher frequencies forming the background signal. The post-eruption volcanic seismicity was dominated by a 0.8-1.4 Hz spectral peak not seen before the eruptions. The 2 Hz and higher frequency signals remained, but were subordinate to the 0.8-1.4 Hz energy. That the dominant frequencies of volcanic tremor and volcanic earthquakes were identical during the individual time periods prior to and following the 1995-1996 eruptions suggests that during each of these time periods the volcanic tremor and earthquakes were generated by the same source process. The overall change in the frequency content, which occurred during the 1995-1996 eruptions and remains as of the time of the writing of this paper, most likely resulted from changes in the volcanic plumbing system and has significant implications for forecasting and real-time assessment of future eruptive activity at Ruapehu.     

Seismic,petrologic, and geodetic analyses of the 1999 dome-forming eruption of Guagua Pichincha volcano,Ecuador

Guagua Pichincha, located 14 km west of Quito, Ecuador, is a stratovolcano bisected by a horseshoe-shaped caldera. In 1999, after some months of phreatic activity, Guagua Pichincha entered into an eruptive period characterized by the extrusion of several dacitic domes, vulcanian eruptions, and pyroclastic flows. We estimated the three-dimensional (3-D) P-wave velocity structure beneath Guagua Pichincha using a tomographic inversion method based on finite-difference calculations of first-arrival times. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes and long-period (LP) events were relocated using the 3-D P-wave velocity model. A low-velocity anomaly exists beneath the caldera and may represent an active volcanic conduit. Petrologic analysis of eruptive products indicates a magma storage region beneath the caldera, having a vertical extent of 7–8 km with the upper boundary at about sea level. This zone coincides with the source region of deeper VT earthquakes, indicating that a primary magma body exists in this region. LP swarms occurred in a cyclic pattern synchronous with ground deformation during magma extrusions. The correlation between seismicity and ground deformation suggests that both respond to pressure changes caused by the cyclic eruptive behavior of lava domes.     

Seismicity at Fuego,Pacaya, Izalco,and San Cristobal Volcanoes,Central America, 1973–1974

Seismic data collected at four volcanoes in Central America during 1973 and 1974 indicate three sources of seismicity: regional earthquakes with hypocentral distances greater than 80 km, earthquakes within 40 km of each volcano, and seismic activity originating at the volcanoes due to eruptive processes. Regional earthquakes generated by the underthrusting and subduction of the Cocos Plate beneath the Caribbean Plate are the most prominent seismic feature in Central America. Earthquakes in the vicinity of the volcanoes occur on faults that appear to be related to volcano formation. Faulting near Fuego and Pacaya volcanoes in Guatemala is more complex due to motion on a major E-W striking transform plate boundary 40 km north of the volcanoes. Volcanic activity produces different kinds of seismic signatures. Shallow tectonic or A-type events originate on nearby faults and occur both singly and in swarms. There are typically from 0 to 6 A-type events per day withb value of about 1.3. At very shallow depths beneath Pacaya, Izalco, and San Cristobal large numbers of low-frequency or B-type events are recorded with predominant frequencies between 2.5 and 4.5 Hz and withb values of 1.7 to 2.9. The relative number of B-type events appears to be related to the eruptive states of the volcanoes; the more active volcanoes have higher levels of seismicity. At Fuego Volcano, however, low-frequency events have unusually long codas and appear to be similar to tremor. High-amplitude volcanic tremor is recorded at Fuego, Pacaya, and San Cristobal during eruptive periods. Large explosion earthquakes at Fuego are well recorded at five stations and yield information on near-surface seismic wave velocities (α=3.0±0.2 km/sec.).     

Sustained long-period seismicity at Shishaldin Volcano,Alaska

From September 1999 through April 2004, Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, exhibited a continuous and extremely high level of background seismicity. This activity consisted of many hundreds to thousands of long-period (LP; 1–2 Hz) earthquakes per day, recorded by a 6-station monitoring network around Shishaldin. The LP events originate beneath the summit at shallow depths (0–3 km). Volcano tectonic events and tremor have rarely been observed in the summit region. Such a high rate of LP events with no eruption suggests that a steady state process has been occurring ever since Shishaldin last erupted in April–May 1999. Following the eruption, the only other signs of volcanic unrest have been occasional weak thermal anomalies and an omnipresent puffing volcanic plume. The LP waveforms are nearly identical for time spans of days to months, but vary over longer time scales. The observations imply that the spatially close source processes are repeating, stable and non-destructive. Event sizes vary, but the rate of occurrence remains roughly constant. The events range from magnitude ∼ 0.1 to 1.8, with most events having magnitudes < 1.0. The observations suggest that the conduit system is open and capable of releasing a large amount of energy, approximately equivalent to at least one magnitude 1.8–2.6 earthquake per day. The rate of observed puffs (1 per minute) in the steam plume is similar to the typical seismic rates, suggesting that the LP events are directly related to degassing processes. However, the source mechanism, capable of producing one LP event about every 0.5–5 min, is still poorly understood. Shishaldin's seismicity is unusual in its sustained high rate of LP events without accompanying eruptive activity. Every indication is that the high rate of seismicity will continue without reflecting a hazardous state. Sealing of the conduit and/or change in gas flux, however, would be expected to change Shishaldin's behavior.     

Volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna: Inferences on magma dynamics during effusive and explosive activity

During 1999, the volcanic activity at Mt. Etna was both explosive and effusive at the summit craters: Strombolian activity, lava fountains and lava flows affected different areas of the volcano, involving three of the four summit craters. Results from analysis of the 1999 volcanic tremor features are shown at two different time scales. First, the long-term time variation of the features of the volcanic tremor (including spectral and polarization parameters), during the entire year, was compared with the evolution of the eruptive activity. This approach demonstrated the good agreement between tremor data and observed eruptive activity; the activation of different tremor sources was suggested. Then, a more refined analysis of the volcanic tremor, recorded during 14 lava fountain eruptions, was performed. In particular, a shift of the dominant frequencies towards lower values was noted which corresponds with increasing explosive activity. Similar behaviour in the frequency content has already been observed in other explosive eruptions at Mt. Etna as well as on other volcanoes. This behaviour has been explained in terms of either an increase in the tremor source dimension or a decrease in the sound speed in the magma within the conduit. These results confirm that the volcanic tremor is a powerful tool for better understanding the physical processes controlling explosive eruptions at Mt. Etna volcano.     

Analysis of long-period events recorded at Mount Etna (Italy) in 1992, and their relationship to eruptive activity

Seismic activity recorded at Mount Etna during 1992 was characterized by long-period (LP) events and tremor with fluctuating amplitudes. These signals were associated with the evolution of the eruptive activity that began on December 14, 1991. Following the occurrence of numerous volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the onset of the eruption, LP events dominated the overall seismicity starting in January, 1992. The LP activity occurred primarily in swarms, which were temporally correlated with episodic collapses of the crater floor in the Northeast Crater. Source depths determined for selected LP events suggest a source region located slightly east of Northeast Crater and extending from the surface to a depth of 2000 m. Based on the characteristic signatures of the time series, four families of LP events are identified. Each family shares common spectral peaks independent of azimuth and distance to the source. These spectral features are used to develop a fluid-filled crack model of the source. We hypothesize that the locus of the LP events represents a segment of the magma feeding system connecting a depressurizing magma body with a dike extending in the SSE direction along the western wall of Valle del Bove, toward the site of the Mount Etna eruption. We surmise that magma withdrawal from the source volume beneath Northeast Crater may have caused repeated collapses of the crater floor. Some collapse events may have produced pressure transients in the subjacent dike which acted as seismic wave sources for LP events.     

High-frequency earthquakes at White Island volcano, New Zealand: insights into the shallow structure of a volcano-hydrothermal system

Volcano-tectonic earthquakes at White Island are concentrated in a single seismically active zone, southeast of the active vents and at depths of less than 1 km. A few deeper earthquakes also occur beneath the active vents. A composite focal mechanism indicates that the stress regime in the shallow seismic zone is N-S extensional. Shallow seismicity occurs within the main volume of the volcano-hydrothermal system that underlies the Main Crater floor, and we interpret this as a region where the rocks have been weakened by past magmatic intrusions, elevated pore fluid pressure and physico-chemical effects of acid volcanic fluids, thereby allowing preferential seismic failure. Brittle seismic failure within this region requires a temperature less than about 400 °C, and implies high horizontal temperature gradients close to the active craters and fumaroles. Spasmodic bursts events are also a result of brittle failure, but occur close to zones of significant permeability in response to changes in local fluid pressure.     

The November 2002 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano,La Réunion Island: ground deformation,seismicity, and pit crater collapse

An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence. After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns, the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally 5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano, causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage 5.     

Monitoring Seismo-volcanic and Infrasonic Signals at Volcanoes: Mt. Etna Case Study

Volcanoes generate a broad range of seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals, whose features and variations are often closely related to volcanic activity. The study of these signals is hence very useful in the monitoring and investigation of volcano dynamics. The analysis of seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals requires specifically developed techniques due to their unique characteristics, which are generally quite distinct compared with tectonic and volcano-tectonic earthquakes. In this work, we describe analysis methods used to detect and locate seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals at Mt. Etna. Volcanic tremor sources are located using a method based on spatial seismic amplitude distribution, assuming propagation in a homogeneous medium. The tremor source is found by calculating the goodness of the linear regression fit (R ²) of the log-linearized equation of the seismic amplitude decay with distance. The location method for long-period events is based on the joint computation of semblance and R ² values, and the location method of very long-period events is based on the application of radial semblance. Infrasonic events and tremor are located by semblance–brightness- and semblance-based methods, respectively. The techniques described here can also be applied to other volcanoes and do not require particular network geometries (such as arrays) but rather simple sparse networks. Using the source locations of all the considered signals, we were able to reconstruct the shallow plumbing system (above sea level) during 2011.     

Earthquake activity related to the 1991 eruption of the Hekla volcano,Iceland

The 1991 eruption of the Hekla volcano started unexpectedly on 17 January. No long-term precursory seismicity was observed. The first related activity was a swarm of small earthquakes that began approximately half an hour before the eruption. Intensive seismicity, both earthquakes and volcanic tremor, accompanied the violent onset of the eruption. Almost 400 events up to M_L magnitude 2.5 were recorded during the first few hours. During the later phases of the eruption, the earthquake activity was modest and the main volcano-related seismic signal was the persistent volcanic tremor. The tremor died away, together with the eruption on 11 March, and Hekla was seismically quiet until the beginning of June 1991, when a sudden swarm of numerous small shallow earthquakes occurred. This activity is atypical for Hekla and is interpreted to be a failed attempt to resume the eruption.     

2002年夏季长白山天池火山区的地震活动研究

2002年6月以来,长白山天池火山区的地震活动明显增加. 本文利用2002年夏季布设在长白山天池火山区15套宽频带流动地震台站的记录资料,对天池火山区的地震活动进行了研究. 地震观测结果表明,2002年夏季长白山天池火山日平均地震发生频次超过30次. 地震主要位于长白山天池西南部和东北部两个区域,震源深度较浅,离地表的深度一般小于5km. 天池西南部和东北部的地震,b值存在较大的差异. 火山区地震记录的频谱分析和时频分析结果表明,这些地震主要为火山构造型地震. HSZ和DZD等台站地震记录中丰富的低频成分,可能与台站附近的局部介质或断层带有关. 我们认为2002年夏季频繁发生的地震和小震震群活动是由火山深部活动诱发的局部断裂活动引起.     

Volcano Seismology

— A fundamental goal of volcano seismology is to understand active magmatic systems, to characterize the configuration of such systems, and to determine the extent and evolution of source regions of magmatic energy. Such understanding is critical to our assessment of eruptive behavior and its hazardous impacts. With the emergence of portable broadband seismic instrumentation, availability of digital networks with wide dynamic range, and development of new powerful analysis techniques, rapid progress is being made toward a synthesis of high-quality seismic data to develop a coherent model of eruption mechanics. Examples of recent advances are: (1) high-resolution tomography to image subsurface volcanic structures at scales of a few hundred meters; (2) use of small-aperture seismic antennas to map the spatio-temporal properties of long-period (LP) seismicity; (3) moment tensor inversions of very-long-period (VLP) data to derive the source geometry and mass-transport budget of magmatic fluids; (4) spectral analyses of LP events to determine the acoustic properties of magmatic and associated hydrothermal fluids; and (5) experimental modeling of the source dynamics of volcanic tremor. These promising advances provide new insights into the mechanical properties of volcanic fluids and subvolcanic mass-transport dynamics. As new seismic methods refine our understanding of seismic sources, and geochemical methods better constrain mass balance and magma behavior, we face new challenges in elucidating the physico-chemical processes that cause volcanic unrest and its seismic and gas-discharge manifestations. Much work remains to be done toward a synthesis of seismological, geochemical, and petrological observations into an integrated model of volcanic behavior. Future important goals must include: (1) interpreting the key types of magma movement, degassing and boiling events that produce characteristic seismic phenomena; (2) characterizing multiphase fluids in subvolcanic regimes and determining their physical and chemical properties; and (3) quantitatively understanding multiphase fluid flow behavior under dynamic volcanic conditions. To realize these goals, not only must we learn how to translate seismic observations into quantitative information about fluid dynamics, but we also must determine the underlying physics that governs vesiculation, fragmentation, and the collapse of bubble-rich suspensions to form separate melt and vapor. Refined understanding of such processes—essential for quantitative short-term eruption forecasts—will require multidisciplinary research involving detailed field measurements, laboratory experiments, and numerical modeling.     

The 1997–1998 Activity of Volcán de Colima,Western Mexico: Some Aspects of the Associated Seismic Activity

Volcán de Colima, the most active volcano in Mexico, had a climactic episode on 20 November, 1998. On this date, a dome formed on the small summit crater during the previous few days, collapsed generating block-and-ash flows. The event was preceded by almost twelve months of seismic activity, which continued afterwards for several more months. We analyzed the main seismic activity, which occurred from 20 March, 1998 to 31 March, 1999. The seismicity was dominated by volcano-tectonic earthquakes before the climax, and subsequently by hybrid and long-period earthquakes. We determined the frequency of events for the entire period, and located most of the volcano-tectonic events. To assess the possibility that these earthquakes were generated by the same source, they were tested for their similitude through cross correlation in the time domain. Six groups of similar events, or earthquake families, were generated. The members of these families appeared before the 20 November event, apparently ceasing afterwards. We examined the location of the families' events with respect to an existing gravity model in which an anomalous body of negative density contrast suggests the presence of the magma chamber. Most of the family events occur on top of the anomalous body, which suggests they were associated with the passage of magma through the feeding conduits of the volcano.     

Seismic characterization of the fall 2007 eruptive sequence at Bezymianny Volcano,Russia

We examine an eruptive sequence in late 2007 at Bezymianny Volcano to characterize the magmatic plumbing system and eruption-related seismicity. Earthquake locations reveal seismicity below and offset to the north of the volcano along a tectonic fault. Based on historical seismicity, the magma chamber is postulated to have a top at about 6 km depth. Minor dome explosions, large sub-plinian eruptions and dome collapses are analyzed using an automated event classification scheme. Low-frequency tremor, interpreted as gas escape, and low-frequency earthquakes are a dominant proportion of the energy released. We also examine multiplet earthquakes whose behavior during the study period changed significantly and systematically before the largest eruption, demonstrating the potential of tracking multiplets to assess changing conditions with the conduit.     

Earthquake Monitoring and Study in the Jingpohu Volcano Cluster Area

Seismicity in the Jingpohu volcanic area was investigated based on the seismic data recorded by the mobile seismic network consisting of 14 stations equipped with 24-bit broad-band 3- component seismographs around Crater Forest, Results show that there appears certain seismicity in Jingpohu and its adjacent areas with a low activity level and most of the recorded earthquakes are the volcanic-tectonic ones, The results of location indicate a dominant focal depth of 10km - 30kin, most of the earthquakes are smaller than ML2,0, and are concentrated in the area of ＂ Crater Forest＂ and on the Dunhua-Mishan fault which runs through the volcanic area. At station No. 2, which has better observation conditions, two types of events, likely associated to volcanism, were recorded; their waveform characteristics are somewhat similar to that of the long-period volcanic event and the volcanic tremor, but with different feature of frequencies.     

Triggered and tectonic driven earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Two strong M?>?5.0 earthquakes within a span of six months occurred in a triggered seismicity environment in the Koyna–Warna region in western India in 2000. The region is experiencing continued seismicity since the last five decades indicating that this region is close to critical stresses and minor perturbations in the stresses due to reservoir loading and unloading can trigger earthquakes. In the present study we applied the technique developed for identification of prognostic anomalies for tectonic earthquakes to the Koyna–Warna catalogue prior to these two earthquakes with an aim to study the process of source preparation for triggered earthquakes. In case of tectonic earthquakes, unstable conditions in a source zone develop gradually leading to a metastable zone which shows variations in certain seismicity parameters known as prognostic anomalies. Our results indicate that the variations in seismicity parameters before the two strong earthquakes in the Koyna region have a pattern of prognostic anomalies typical of tectonic earthquakes. We conclude that initiation of failure in a metastable zone can be caused both, by external impacts, reservoir loading and unloading in our case, and internal processes of avalanche-like failure development.