Evaluation of a method to reduce uncertainty in wind hindcasts performed with regional atmosphere models

For more and more applications in coastal and offshore engineering, numerical simulations of waves and surges are required. An important input parameter for such simulations are wind fields. They represent one of the major sources for uncertainties in wave and surge simulations. Wind fields for such simulations are frequently obtained from numerical hindcasts with regional atmospheric models (RAMs). The skill of these atmospheric hindcasts depends, among others, on the quality of the forcing at the boundaries. Furthermore, results may vary due to uncertainties in the initial conditions. By comparing different existing approaches for forcing a regional atmospheric model, it is shown that the models' sensitivity to uncertainties in the initial conditions may be reduced when a more sophisticated approach is used that has been suggested recently. For a specific, although somewhat brief test period, it is demonstrated that an improved hindcast skill for near surface wind fields is obtained when this approach is adopted. Consequences of the reduced uncertainty in wield fields for the hindcast skill of subsequent wave modelling studies are demonstrated. Recently, this new approach has been used together with a regional atmosphere model to produce a 40-year wind hindcast for the Northeast Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The hindcast is presently extended to other areas and the wind fields are used to produce 40-year high-resolution hindcasts of waves and surges for various European coastal areas.     

Non-conservative Nutrient Fluxes from Budgets for the Irish Sea

Budgets for conservative tracers are used to determine the flow through the Irish Sea and combined with available data on nutrient distributions and inputs to estimate non-conservative nutrient fluxes. Steady state salinity and caesium-137 balances yield consistent estimates of the flow through the Irish Sea of Φ≈6×10⁴ m³s⁻¹. Using both tracers together with a mass balance allows the inclusion of separate diffusive flux terms and results in a diffusivity estimate ofK≈450 m²s⁻¹and a reduced flow of Φ≈4×10⁴ m³s⁻¹. These values are, however, sensitive to the gradients of salinity and caesium-137 concentration, which are not well defined by the observations.Following the LOICZ procedures, salinity and mass balances were combined with analogous statements for dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), in order to assess the non-conservative process rates. With regard to phosphorus it was found that the Irish Sea is close to balance with a slight net uptake of dissolved inorganic phosphorus, but the implied excess of uptake over release is not significant on account of uncertainties in the observations of boundary values and inputs. The DIN budget is subject to comparable uncertainties in the input data but does, however, indicate a significant imbalance with an average rate of denitrification of the order 0·3 mol N m⁻²y⁻¹.The implications of these budget results and their limitations are considered in relation to the application of the budgeting approach to areas with sparse data coverage. While the application of box model disciplines to conservative tracers can lead to satisfactory estimates of advective transport, the extension to non-conservative components requires extensive data to adequately specify the boundary values and input parameters averaged over the seasonal cycle.     

近海生态系统的人为营养盐输入及其控制对策浅析

人为活动每年新增大量的活性氮、磷,导致全球氮、磷循环失衡,新增活性氮、磷主要来源于合成氮肥的生产和施用、畜肥的施用、具固氮能力的农作物如豆科植物等的大规模种植,以及化石燃料燃烧产生的氮氧化物等,而农作物生产与畜禽养殖是改变全球氮、磷循环的主要原因。随着生活污水排放量和化肥施用量的激增,大量氮、磷进入近海,导致营养盐污染和富营养化,这已成为全球性的海洋生态环境问题,通过河流径流和大气沉降进入近海生态环境中的新增氮和磷一半以上与人为活动有关。本文以波罗的海和东海为例,分析了发达国家和发展中国家近海的富营养化问题,研究表明从源头缓解富营养化的对策应同时聚焦氮与磷负荷的削减,具体措施包括降低农业生产活动中化肥的土壤渗漏、合理施肥、种植多年生植物和种植休耕季覆被作物等。     

Nutrient chemistry of the Ob' and Yenisey Rivers,Siberia: results from June 2000 expedition and evaluation of long-term data sets

Although containing only ∼1% of global ocean volume, the arctic Ocean receives almost 10% of global river discharge. Nutrients carried by arctic rivers influence the productivity of their estuaries and coastal seas and may serve as important indicators of changing conditions in their watersheds. The three largest arctic rivers (Yenisey, Ob', and Lena) enter the arctic Ocean from Siberia and together account for nearly 35% of river-water inputs to the arctic Ocean. Although several nutrient flux estimates have been published for Eurasian arctic rivers, recent publications have highlighted uncertainties in these estimates and have cautioned against their uncritical use, particularly with respect to ammonium data. In order to help clarify the situation and evaluate the validity of existing long-term data sets, we went to Siberia during June 2000 to collect and analyze new nutrient samples from the downstream reaches of the Yenisey and Ob' rivers. Samples were independently analyzed by as many as four groups/laboratories in order to maximize confidence in analytical results. Whereas long-term data sets report average ammonium concentrations of 710 and 360 μg N/l in the Ob' and Yenisey rivers, respectively, we measured concentrations of only 10–15 μg N/l in both rivers in June 2000. We conclude that existing long-term data sets for these two rivers are grossly in error with respect to ammonium concentrations, and by extension that other surprisingly high values of ammonium reported for Russian arctic rivers (for example Pur, Taz, Nadym, and Pechora rivers) must be considered extremely doubtful. The situation is better for nitrate and phosphate, but our one-time sampling is insufficient to fully evaluate the reliability of existing data sets for these nutrients. Because a substantial percentage of the total freshwater input to the arctic Ocean comes from Russian rivers, the large revisions in ammonium concentrations needed for the Ob', Yenisey, and probably other Eurasian arctic rivers will significantly reduce estimates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) fluxes to the arctic Ocean as a whole.     

An Examination of the Fluxes of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in Temperate and Tropical Estuaries: Current Estimates and Uncertainties

In a number of regions of the world, enhanced flows of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from land to sea are of major concern because of the observable deterioration in the quality of many nearshore marine waters. Estuaries receive N and P from river and other runoff, from waste discharges, from the atmosphere and ocean and from exchange with coastal groundwaters (which in all likelihood results in a net input to the estuary). For rivers that do not discharge directly onto the continental shelf, seaward fluxes of N and P will be modified by within-estuary transformations of reactive species, the burial of particulate N and P in sediments (sub/intertidal, saltmarsh, mangrove) and the loss of gaseous N and P species by bacterial reduction.Driven by a desire to understand the effects of changing N and P loads on water quality, and to gain insights into the true modification of their fluxes within estuaries, much effort has been expended on providing quantitative estimates of the sources and sinks of these constituents. Yet, accurate and precise estimates on a global scale remain elusive. Riverine inputs of total N and P are calculated to be 35–64 and 22 Mt a⁻¹, respectively. These inputs are dominated by particulate species, and because of this, are likely to be imprecise as overall sediment fluxes are disproportionately influenced by infrequent, poorly sampled, high flow events. Direct aeolian inputs of N to estuaries (P inputs are minor), at a minimum of 1–4 Mt a⁻¹, are small but significant, although again good estimates are hampered by the apparent importance of infrequent, and thus under-sampled, deposition events. Indirect atmospheric inputs via deposition onto and runoff from catchments may be highly significant, at least in environments bounding the North Atlantic Ocean. Groundwater inputs are generally unknown, but, for N, may be 5–10 Mt a⁻¹ (no data on P). Information on the global inputs of N and P from waste discharges and mariculture do not appear to be available. Denitrification, estimated to beca . 33 Mt a⁻¹, may account for 52–94% of the currently estimated total N inputs; in contrast, the loss of P via venting of gaseous phosphine is unknown. The burial of N and P in sediments is about 7% and 30% of their total inputs, respectively. Nevertheless, reliable information on the modifying role of estuarine sediments appears far from complete.Globally, the inputs of N and P to the marine environment from all sources are expected to increase over the next few decades. The resulting effects of these increases on the marine environment, including any influences due to estuarine processing, may be partly assessed through the use of dynamic transport and transformation estuarine models for N and P. A further important development in this respect will be the linking of complementary models (e.g. catchment/river/estuarine/coastal zone) and their coupling to strategic large scale observations.     

Unexpected fast rate of morphological evolution of geologically-active continental margins during Quaternary: Examples from selected areas in the Italian seas

In the last few decades, seafloor imagery systems have drastically changed our vision of a mostly regular and depositional marine landscape, evidencing how erosive and mass-wasting processes are widespread in the marine environments, with particular reference to geologically-active areas. Most of the previous studies have focused on the characterization of these features, whereas a very few ones have tried to estimate what is the extent and order of magnitude of erosion rates in these areas. In this paper, we show several examples from some of the most geologically-active margins off Southern Italy aimed to a) quantify the spatial extent of such processes, b) better understand the role of submarine erosion in the morphogenesis of the coastal sector, and c) try to roughly estimate the order of magnitude of erosion rates in these areas. The results are impressive, with mass-wasting features widespread from coast down to −2600, affecting from the 52% up to 97% of the whole continental slope. Because of the narrow or totally lacking shelves in these areas, mass-wasting processes often occur close to the coast and match embayment of the coast, so indicating a key role in the morphogenesis of coastal sector, with significant implication on the related geohazard. Finally, based on a morphological approach integrated by available stratigraphic constraints we have roughly estimated average erosion rates in these areas, ranging from (at least) some mm/year to a few cm/year, i.e., some hundreds of meters up to kilometers eroded in each eustatic cycle. Despite the large uncertainties of these estimates as well as their spatial and temporal variability in response to regional and local factors, the obtained values are very high and they should be considered for future model of margin evolution, source-to-sink computation and marine/coastal geohazard assessment.     

Some peculiarities of formulation and solution of inverse problems in microwave radiometry of the ocean surface and atmosphere

This paper considers the use of multifrequency radiometers to determine some emission properties of sea surface and its dependence on wind speed, atmospheric water vapor content, and liquid water content in clouds. The following aspects are analyzed: a) the sea state influence upon radiative characteristics of the "ocean-atmosphere" system, b) calibration of the data on range measurement, c) choice of spectral bands which provide optimum accuracy for determination of geophysical parameters with due regard to the spectral peculiarities of the functional relationships between the radiophysical and geophysical parameters and their uncertainties. Data are presented (with suitable illustrations) for an experiment to determine different hydrometeorological conditions and estimates of the accuracy of applied retrieval procedures.     

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.     

Photochemical models of the atmosphere and their application in ozonosphere and climate studies: A review

This review is devoted to problems in the photochemical modeling of atmospheric processes. The physicochemical and mathematical foundations underlying the construction of photochemical models are described, a classification of the atmospheric reactions is presented, and the features of photochemical modeling are considered under various irradiance conditions for various atmospheric layers and geographical regions. Atmospheric processes that are important to photochemical models are discussed. Applications involving photochemical models are outlined. Some results are presented to illustrate the capabilities of photochemical models. Special attention is given to relatively recent directions in photochemical modeling, such as data assimilation and inverse problems. The review can be used by experts in areas related to atmospheric chemistry as a basic source of knowledge on the subject and for the development of photochemical modules for atmospheric models.     

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.     

Sensitivity analysis of submersibles’ manoeuvrability and its application to the design of actuator inputs

The influences of hydrodynamic coefficients on the prediction of manoeuvrability were examined by sensitivity analysis (SA) of direct method. The equations of motion used were the standard equations of motion for submarine [Gertler, M., Hagen, G.R., 1967. Standard equations of motion for submarine simulation. DTNSRDC Report], and three submersibles with different appendages were considered. Numerical simulations of three types of sea trials are performed to obtain the sensitivities of motions to hydrodynamic coefficients. Since the accuracy of hydrodynamic coefficients’ estimates is increased by the use of sensitivity-maximizing inputs, the sensitivity-optimal actuator commands that are sequences of bang-bang type inputs were deduced with genetic algorithm (GA) optimization technique.     

台湾海峡大气微量金属的化学特征及其入海通量

2006～2007年,利用大容量气溶胶采样器在台湾海峡采集79个大气气溶胶样品．采用ICP—MS分析法测定了样品中Pb、Cu、Cd、V、Zn、Fe和Al等金属元素的含量．分析结果显示,台湾海峡大气微量金属含量呈现出明显的季节变化,对大部分元素而言,含量最低值出现在夏季,而最高值出现在冬季,气溶胶中微量金属的含量变化与海峡的气象条件等因素有关．通过富集因子、相关性分析和因子分析,对微量金属的来源进行了判别．台湾海峡大气微量金属的来源特征为：Cu、Pb、Cd、V主要来自污染源,而Al、Fe、Zn则主要来自地壳源．比较和分析了台湾海峡海域微量金属的大气与河流输入,Cu和Zn的大气输入低于九龙江和闽江的输入,而Pb、Cd的大气输入则超过了这2条河流的输入．     

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R² = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.     

Estimation of the influence that natural fires have on air pollution in the region of Moscow megalopolis based on the combined use of chemical transport model and measurement data

Satellite measurements of the fire radiation power, measurements of atmospheric pollution in the network of GPU Mosekomonitoring stations, and the modern CHIMERE chemical transport model (CHIMERE CTM) are used for estimating the influence that forest fires have on the air pollution level in the Moscow megalopolis region during the summer of 2007. The method by which the radiation power caused by natural fires determined from satellite measurements is converted into emissions of individual model species is described. General problems related to the optimization of estimates of fire emission and the effects caused by them based on the combined use of measurement data on the composition of the atmosphere and the CTM are considered using a concrete example. It is shown, in particular, that the use of the standard least squares method for the optimization of fire emissions from leads in the general case to obtaining biased (underestimated) estimates. The results of calculations consistent with measurements show that forest fires near Moscow can occasionally be responsible for a considerable part of the air pollution observed in Moscow and its vicinities, and they can be the main reason for the high level of atmospheric pollution in some neighboring regions.     

Implementation of European marine policy: New water quality targets for German Baltic waters

A full re-calculation of Water Framework Directive reference and target concentrations for German coastal waters and the western Baltic Sea is presented, which includes a harmonization with HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets. Further, maximum allowable nutrient inputs (MAI) and target concentrations in rivers for the German Baltic catchments are suggested. For this purpose a spatially coupled, large scale and integrative modeling approach is used, which links the river basin flux model MONERIS to ERGOM-MOM, a three-dimensional ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea. The years around 1880 are considered as reference conditions reflecting a high ecological status and are reconstructed and simulated with the model system. Alternative approaches are briefly described, as well. For every WFD water body and the open sea, target concentrations for nitrogen and phosphorus compounds as well as chlorophyll a are provided by adding 50% to the reference concentrations. In general, the targets are less strict for coastal waters and slightly stricter for the sea (e.g. 1.2 mg/m³ chl.a summer average for the Bay of Mecklenburg), compared to current values. By taking into account the specifics of every water body, this approach overcomes the inconsistencies of earlier approaches. Our targets are well in agreement with the BSAP targets, but provide spatially refined and extended results. The full data are presented in Appendix A1 and A2.To reach the targets, German nitrogen inputs have to be reduced by 34%. Likely average maximum allowable concentrations in German Baltic rivers are between 2.6 and 3.1 mg N/l. However, the concrete value depends on the scenario and uncertainties with respect to atmospheric deposition. To our results, MAI according to the BSAP may be sufficient for the open sea, but are not sufficient to reach a good WFD status in German coastal waters.     

Summer algal blooms in a coastal ecosystem: the role of atmospheric deposition versus entrainment fluxes

The nitrogen inputs from atmospheric deposition and bottom water entrainment to the surface layer were modelled in the summer period (May–September) over a 11-year period (1989–1999) and compared to investigate the significance of these fluxes for generating blooms in the Kattegat. In the summer periods the average atmospheric deposition was 2.81 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ compared to average entrainment fluxes of 5.42 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹, 1.21 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ and 1.15 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ for the northern, central and southern part of the Kattegat, respectively. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition alone could not sustain biomass increases associated with observed blooms and entrainment fluxes dominated the high nitrogen inputs to the surface layer. The potential for a bloom through growth was typically obtained after several days of high nitrogen inputs from entrainment in the frontal area of the northern Kattegat and to some extent from atmospheric deposition. The modelled nitrogen input in this area could account directly for 30% of the observed blooms in the Northern sub-basin, and through advective transport 24% and 19% of the observed blooms in the central and southern Kattegat. The direct nitrogen inputs through atmospheric deposition and entrainment to the central and southern sub-basins were small and could not be linked to any bloom observation.     

Long-term numerical evolution of the nitrogen bulk content in the Mediterranean Sea

The behavior of the Mediterranean ecosystem in response to realistic riverine inputs and dissolved matter exchange is investigated. The strategy is to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem subjected to various atmospheric inputs.     

Reliability analysis of H-infinity control for a container ship in way-point tracking

Efficient control of ships in a designed trajectory is always a significant charge for ship maneuverings. The purpose of this paper is to design a robust H_∞ controller and a reliability analysis for a container ship in a way-point tracking. First, the H_∞ controller is designed for a container ship because of model parameters’ uncertainties and external disturbances such as waves, winds and ocean currents. Then, to evaluate the reliability of the designed controller, a well-known reliability analysis technique is employed to achieve the predefined heading angle overshoot (that is less than 20%) in way-point tracking. To do this, three random variables including wind speed, wind direction and wave direction are considered as the inputs due to their significant effect on overshoot, compared to other variables. The results demonstrate the capability of the designed H_∞ controller against modeling uncertainties and external disturbances in way point tracking control.     

Dry and wet deposition of nutrients from the tropical Atlantic atmosphere: Links to primary productivity and nitrogen fixation

Atmospheric deposition fluxes of soluble nutrients (N, P, Si, Fe, Co, Zn) to the tropical North Atlantic were determined during cruise M55 of the German SOLAS programme. Nutrient fluxes were highest in the east of the section along 10°N, owing to the proximity of source regions in West Africa and Europe, and lowest in the west, for both dry and wet deposition modes. In common with other recent studies, atmospheric P and Si inputs during M55 were strongly depleted relative to the stoichiometry of phytoplankton Fe, N, P and Si requirements. Atmospheric N inputs were equivalent to 0.1–4.7% of observed primary productivity during the cruise. Atmospheric nutrient supply was also compared to observed nitrogen fixation rates during M55. While atmospheric Fe supply may have been sufficient to support N fixation (depending on the relationship between our simple Fe leaching experiment and aerosol Fe dissolution in seawater), atmospheric P supply was well below the required rate. The stable nitrogen isotope composition of nitrate–N in aerosol and rain was also determined. Results of a simple model indicate that atmospheric deposition and nitrogen fixation introduce similar amounts of isotopically light nitrogen into surface waters of the study region. This implies that nitrogen isotope-based methods would overestimate nitrogen fixation here by a factor of 2, if atmospheric inputs were not taken into account.     

Comparing satellite and meteorological data on wind velocity over the Black Sea

Wind-velocity data obtained from in situ measurements at the Golitsyno-4 marine stationary platform have been compared with QuikSCAT scatterometer data; NCEP, MERRA, and ERA-Interim global reanalyses and MM5 regional atmospheric reanalysis. In order to adjust wind velocity measured at a height of 37 m above the sea surface to a standard height of 10 m with stratification taken into account, the Monin–Obukhov theory and regional atmospheric reanalysis data are used. Data obtained with the QuikSCAT scatterometer most adequately describe the real variability of wind over the Black Sea. Errors in reanalysis data are not high either: the regression coefficient varies from 0.98 to 1.06, the rms deviation of the velocity amplitude varies from 1.90 to 2.24 m/s, and the rms deviation of the direction angle varies from 26° to 36°. Errors in determining the velocity and direction of wind depend on its amplitude: under weak winds (<3 m/s), the velocity of wind is overestimated and errors significantly increase in determining its direction; under strong winds (>12 m/s), its velocity is underestimated. The influence of these errors on both spatial and temporal estimates of the characteristics of wind over the Black Sea is briefly considered.