Constraints on the frequency–magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates

Earthquake populations have recently been shown to have many similarities with critical-point phenomena, with fractal scaling of source sizes (energy or seismic moment) corresponding to the observed Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency–magnitude law holding at low magnitudes. At high magnitudes, the form of the distribution depends on the seismic moment release rate M˙ and the maximum magnitude m _max . The G–R law requires a sharp truncation at an absolute maximum magnitude for finite M˙ . In contrast, the gamma distribution has an exponential tail which allows a soft or 'credible' maximum to be determined by negligible contribution to the total seismic moment release. Here we apply both distributions to seismic hazard in the mainland UK and its immediate continental shelf, constrained by a mixture of instrumental, historical and neotectonic data. Tectonic moment release rates for the seismogenic part of the lithosphere are calculated from a flexural-plate model for glacio-isostatic recovery, constrained by vertical deformation rates from tide-gauge and geomorphological data. Earthquake focal mechanisms in the UK show near-vertical strike-slip faulting, with implied directions of maximum compressive stress approximately in the NNW–SSE direction, consistent with the tectonic model. Maximum magnitudes are found to be in the range 6.3–7.5 for the G–R law, or 7.0–8.2 m _L for the gamma distribution, which compare with a maximum observed in the time period of interest of 6.1 m _L . The upper bounds are conservative estimates, based on 100 per cent seismic release of the observed vertical neotectonic deformation. Glacio-isostatic recovery is predominantly an elastic rather than a seismic process, so the true value of m _max is likely to be nearer the lower end of the quoted range.     

Mean slope-angle frequency distribution and size frequency distribution of landslide masses in Higashikubiki area, Japan

Landslide mass size frequency distributions and mean slope-angle frequency distributions were calculated for slump, slide, and creep type landslides in the Higashikubiki area. Mean slope-angle frequency distributions closely approximated Weibull distributions. Size frequency distributions show power-law dependencies. Both can be explained by modeling landslides as linked uniform blocks in tensile force. Power coefficients for size frequency distributions were 2.01–2.32 (approximation to power functions) or 2.10–2.24 (approximation to Pareto distributions).     

世界能源贸易网络的演化特征与能源竞合关系

详尽地探讨全球能源贸易网络的演化特征及国际贸易的竞合关系,可为中国能源贸易政策的制定提供科学支撑。论文运用复杂网络方法,从整体格局出发研究了世界能源贸易网络的演化特征,并重点从供给与需求两方面分析了贸易集团演化与供需大国的能源竞合关系。研究结果表明：20世纪90年代以来,世界能源贸易关系不断趋于复杂化。近年来,能源贸易主体数量基本保持稳定,当前占世界总数近80%的国家/地区均参与能源贸易;世界能源贸易网络同时具有小世界特性与无标度特性;世界能源的进出口格局已发生重塑,能源的出口重心逐渐由东亚、中东、澳洲和欧洲转向了东欧、中东、北美、澳洲和西非等地区,进口重心由东亚、西欧和澳洲向北美、东亚和西欧转移;世界能源贸易网络存在四大集团,分别是以美国为首的贸易集团、欧洲-俄罗斯等国家贸易集团、东亚-东南亚贸易集团和澳大利亚-印度-非洲贸易集团等。地理距离、制度差异、历史文化及政治关系等是贸易集团演化的重要原因;贸易集团内,核心国家间的贸易依赖存在着非对称性,能源需求国进口来源的多元化现象更为突出,东亚、东南亚市场是供给国共同争夺的对象。     

“组织-贸易”视角下全球能源治理网络的基本结构及其边界重构

全球能源治理是当前能源话语权塑造的重要形式,其本质是能源利益主体间围绕多元能源议题而构建的关系网络。在以往相关研究中,各能源组织的架构、功能、绩效以及所产生的复杂影响占据了主要内容,而对于全球能源治理的整体结构以及内部关系却未能有进一步探索。本研究认为,能源组织与实际贸易存在交互关系,将二者相结合来进一步呈现和解释全球能源治理架构是有必要的。基于此,本研究以2019年为时间节点,收集主要能源组织的属性数据与各国之间的石油和天然气贸易数据,将国家间在能源治理组织的常态化合作关系与实际发生的能源贸易关系作为分析基础;并利用社会网络分析方法构建全球能源治理网络,探析其基本结构以及出现的“边界重构”现象。研究发现：(1)能源组织网络与能源贸易网络存在显著的结构性差异,在两种网络对比中,美国与俄罗斯均占据主导地位。(2)中国已经成为能源贸易大国,但在全球能源组织合作中不具优势,与传统能源利益集团之间缺乏正式的治理合作。(3)全球能源治理体系呈现出典型的“核心-边缘”结构,主要被划分为欧盟以及亚太-北美“社区”,其中OECD（经济合作与发展组织）国家占据“核心”地位;而以单一能源输出为主导功能的出...     

中国入境旅游规模分布特征及其变化

基于规模分布模型的应用探讨,本文利用1999～2008年中国各地市的入境旅游人数数据,分析了中国入境旅游规模分布及其内部结构的特征与变化.结果表明:由于受规模下降趋势变化的影响,以相同门槛规模为取样标准所得的规模分布系数在时间纵向上将具不可比性,此时以相同地区取样的分析结果进行比较分析将更具合理性.全国与东部、中部与西...     

科尔沁沙地樟子松人工林土壤粒径分布特征

为揭示科尔沁沙地不同林龄沙地樟子松人工林对风沙土粒径分布特征的影响,以中龄、近熟和成熟沙地樟子松人工林风沙土为研究对象,以裸沙地风沙土为实验对照,采用激光衍射技术测定土壤样品粒度组成,计算分析土壤粒度参数特征,绘制土壤粒配曲线。结果显示:(1)科尔沁沙地樟子松人工林风沙土以砂粒为主,其次是粉粒,黏粒含量最少。随林龄的增长,土壤黏粒、粉粒含量呈增加趋势,砂粒含量呈减少趋势。裸沙地风沙土砂粒含量多高于同层林地土壤。(2)科尔沁沙地樟子松人工林风沙土质地较粗,分选性较差,偏度值多为正偏度,峰度值多为尖窄,0～10 cm和10～20 cm风沙土分形维数分别为2.18～2.43和1.98～2.17。裸沙地风沙土质地更粗,分选性更好,分形维数更小。(3)科尔沁沙地樟子松人工林风沙土的粒度频率分布曲线均为双峰型。随林龄的增长,10～20 cm风沙土的土壤颗粒细化滞后于0～10 cm。林地悬移组分的含量高于裸沙地,裸沙地跃移组分的分选性高于林地。科尔沁沙地不同樟子松人工林风沙土粒径分布特征存在显著差异,本研究结果可为科尔沁沙地土地沙漠化防治及生态修复提供理论依据。     

Influence of air masses on particle number concentration and size distribution at Mt. Waliguan, Qinghai Province, China

Particle size distribution of 12–500 nm was measured at Mt. Waliguan, China Global Atmosphere Watch Baseline Observatory, from Aug. in 2005 to May in 2007. 72-hr back-trajectories at 100-m arrival height above ground level for the same period were calculated at 6:00, 12:00, and 21:00 (Beijing Time) for each day using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT-4) model developed by NOAA/ARL. It was found that air mass sources significantly impact particle number concentration and size distribution at Mt. Waliguan. Cluster analysis of back-trajectories show that higher Aitken mode particle number concentration was observed when air masses came from or passed by the northeastern section of Mt. Waliguan, with short trajectory length. High number concentration of nucleation mode was associated with air masses from clean regions, with long trajectory length     

The evolution of the spatial-temporal patterns of global energy security since the 1990s

Journal of Geographical Sciences - In this study, we developed an energy security evaluation model (ESEM) from three dimensions, energy supply-transport security, safety of energy utilization, and...     

河西走廊风能时空特征

利用河西走廊地区1970-2004年风速气候资料和2004年9月-2005年8月周年风塔精细资料,采用气候订正和即时风速订正,得到接近自然的风速,依此研究了该区域近地面70 m层内风能分布。结果表明:河西走廊区域风速变幅较小、气候变化趋势较稳定;有效风速(≥3 m/s)时数在6 000 h/a,10 m高度风能大多在150 w/m2以上,风能随高度线形增长(在70 m高度层内),平均每升高10 m风能增加28 w/m2;10~70 m层内总风能年储量相当丰富,普遍在1.5×1016kWh/m2(千瓦时/平方米)以上,潜在年产值达千万亿元。河西走廊风能存在明显周日和月季变化,风能和有效风速时数存在空间差异,其时空差异与河西走廊独特的戈壁下垫面关系密切。     

基于乡镇尺度的河南省人口分布的地统计学分析

基于地统计学方法,以乡镇层面的第六次人口普查数据为基础,对河南省人口分布及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：全省人口分布基本上可划分为山区低密度、平原中密度和城市高密度三种类型;变异函数在东西、南北、东北—西南和西北—东南四个方向上趋向相近,距离超过80 km后,各向异性增强;变异函数的指数模型拟合效果最好,插值结果直观地表现了人口疏密的梯度变化;洛阳至淮滨一线为全省较明显的人口分界线;山区和平原两种地形条件是影响该省人口空间格局的基本因素;在平原地区,区位条件和社会经济发展的互动作用又成为影响城镇人口分布的主要因素。在推进城镇化的进程中,应结合主体功能区划和新型城镇化战略,有序推进城乡人口的再分布。     

长江中游新石器时代遗址规模的分布特征

运用ArcGIS软件建立了长江中游地区9.0~4.0 ka BP文化遗址的空间数据库,采用叠加分析和统计学方法,对文化遗址的规模、海拔分布、坡度、距河流远近等特征进行了系统分析。结果表明：① 由新石器时代早期到晚期,遗址的数量、规模和分布范围等均呈现增长或扩大趋势,叠置型遗址个数增加;② 遗址一般具有低海拔、平缓地形和距河流较近的选址倾向,晚期的文化遗址大体保持该倾向,但对海拔、坡度及距河流远近等的选择开始出现分化。③ 新石器时代晚期不同规模的文化遗址在选址上存在一定分异。小型遗址多分布在坡度为6°~15°的缓坡地,中型及以上规模的遗址更倾向于坡度为2°~6°平缓地;中小型至大型遗址的海拔分布均以30~50 m为主,特大型遗址的海拔分布以50~100 m为主;特大型遗址在距河流1000 m以内的分布比例高于其他规模遗址;④ 新石器文化在早中期受气候、水源、地形等自然环境因素影响较大,晚期文化的适应能力有所增强。     

51a新疆雹灾损失的时空分布特征

用新疆1952-2002 a的900例雹灾资料,对雹灾发生频次、受灾面积、经济损失的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明,新疆雹灾频次、受灾面积、经济损失从20世纪70年代开始增长较快,受灾面积、频次1990年达到最大,可比经济损失最大值出现在1995年。雹灾主要集中在4～9月,雹灾发生频次6月最多,受灾面积5月份最多,可比经济损失值以7月份最大。按灰色关联灾情评估模型可将新疆分为严重雹灾区、重雹灾区、中雹灾区、轻雹灾区和微雹灾区五个区域。其中:阿克苏为雹灾重点防御地区,喀什、塔城、伊犁、博州、石河子为次重点防御地区。     

Review on carbon emissions,energy consumption and low-carbon economy in China from a perspective of global climate change

Accompanying the rapid growth of China’s population and economy, energy consumption and carbon emission increased significantly from 1978 to 2012. China is now the largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter of the world, leading to much interest in researches on the nexus between energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon economy. This article presents the domestic Chinese studies on this hotpot issue, and we obtain the following findings. First, most research fields involve geography, ecology and resource economics, and research contents contained some analysis of current situation, factors decomposition, predictive analysis and the introduction of methods and models. Second, there exists an inverted “U-shaped” curve connection between carbon emission, energy consumption and economic development. Energy consumption in China will be in a low-speed growth after 2035 and it is expected to peak between 6.19–12.13 billion TCE in 2050. China’s carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2035, or during 2020 to 2045, and the optimal range of carbon emissions is between 2.4–3.3 PgC/year (1 PgC=1 billion tons C) in 2050. Third, future research should be focused on global carbon trading, regional carbon flows, reforming the current energy structure, reducing energy consumption and innovating the low-carbon economic theory, as well as establishing a comprehensive theoretical system of energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon economy.     

Quantitative assessment of the spatial distribution of 239+240Pu inventory derived from global fallout in soils from Asia and Europe

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Due to the atmospheric nuclear weapon tests carried out, terrestrial environments have been extensively contaminated by global fallout of plutonium (Pu)...     

古尔班通古特沙漠南部风沙土粒度分布的空间异质性

系统采集古尔班通古特沙漠南部典型地段纵向沙垄和垄间地浅层风沙土(0～30 cm)样184件,运用常规粒度分析和地统计分析方法研究了古尔班通古特沙漠南部沙垄不同部位风沙土粒度组成、分布特征及空间变异。结果显示:风沙土机械组成的优势粒级是细沙和极细沙,不同地貌部位粒级组成差异明显。粘土和粉沙的含量为垄间地高于沙垄,背风坡高于迎风坡和垄顶。极细沙和细沙的含量是迎风坡最高,垄顶最低。中沙、粗沙和极粗沙的含量则是垄间地低于沙垄,垄顶最高。风沙土粗物质粒径φ1和平均粒径Mz从垄间地→背风坡→迎风坡→垄顶均由细变粗,分选系数σ则由差变好。同时,φ1、Mz和σ具有中等-强空间自相关性,其空间相关范围(变程)大小顺序为φ1<σ相似文献   

土壤水溶性有机物与富里酸分子量分布的空间结构特征

用凝胶色谱法测定了16种土类的35个表土样品水溶性有机物和富里酸的分子量分布。分析了水溶性有机物与富里酸分子量分布的地域分异规律与空间结构特征。结果表明研究区土壤水溶性有机物与富里酸平均分子量大小具有自东北向西南递降的一般趋势，分布的离散性则表现出与此相反的规律。水溶性有机物分子量沿趋势面倾斜方向的变化幅度较富里酸大，两在空间的自相关范围基本一致。水热条件是影响水溶性有机物分子量空间分布的主要因素。     

Explosive volcanic eruptions—X. The influence of pyroclast size distributions and released magma gas contents on the eruption velocities of pyroclasts and gas in Hawaiian and Plinian eruptions

Previous treatments of the relationship between the mass fraction of released magma volatiles and the eruption speeds of gas and pyroclasts in steady explosive eruptions have not taken detailed account of the dynamic effects associated with the finite size distribution of the pyroclasts. When this is done, it is found that previously published estimates of exsolved magma volatile contents obtained from the analysis of pyroclast size distributions in near-vent deposits overestimate the volatile content by approximately 20 per cent in the case of Plinian eruptions. The discrepancy is much worse for pyroclast size distributions skewed towards coarse clasts, as is common in basaltic lava fountains; in such cases pyroclast dispersal studies may overestimate the exsolved magma volatile content by at least 200 per cent. An analogous problem arises if released magma volatile amounts deduced from studies of fluid inclusions in pyroclasts are inserted into most current computer models of eruption dynamics, but the gas eruption speeds deduced have an even larger error, being underestimated by up to 300 per cent in the case of coarse-grained eruptions. The more sophisticated of the currently available numerical models of eruption dynamics can in principle avoid this problem, but practical implementation limitations have so far prevented such models being run with a sufficiently wide range of grain sizes for the importance of these effects to be fully appreciated.