New Cadanav methodology for quantitative rock fall hazard assessment and zoning at the local scale

Rock fall hazard zoning is a challenging yet necessary task to be accomplished for planning an appropriate land use in mountainous areas. Methodologies currently adopted for elaborating zoning maps do not provide satisfactory results though, due to uncertainties and related assumptions characterising hazard assessment. The new Cadanav methodology, presented in this paper, aims at improving quantitative hazard assessment and zoning at the local scale, by reducing uncertainties mainly related to the technique for combining rock fall intensity and frequency of occurrence. Starting from available information on rock fall failure frequency and trajectory simulation results, the procedure merges in a strict way temporal frequency, probability of reach and energy data and evaluates the hazard degree by means of “hazard curves”. These curves are described at each point of the slope by a series of energy–return period couples representing the hazardous conditions which may possibly affect that location. The new Cadanav methodology is here detailed and compared to its original version. Hazard zoning results are illustrated along two different 2D slope profiles, for linear homogeneous cliff configurations, and according to the Swiss intensity–frequency diagram for rock fall hazard zoning. However, the procedure can be easily used with any other intensity–frequency diagram prescribed in national guidelines and, additionally, extended to problems involving 3D topographies.     

Terrestrial laser scanner and geomechanical surveys for the rapid evaluation of rock fall susceptibility scenarios

The primary objective of this paper is to present a semiautomatic procedure that, integrated with traditional methods, can be useful for a rapid definition of rock fall susceptibility scenarios with the purpose of civil protection. Due to its morphology (steep slopes and narrow valleys), regional seismicity, and rock mass characteristics, the Nera Valley (Valnerina, Umbria Region, Italy) is characterized by high rock fall risk. With the aim of covering a wide range of features and investigating the main advantages and drawbacks of the proposed approach, data collection (terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and geomechanical surveys) was carried out at three different slopes. Detailed three-dimensional (3D) models were created to reconstruct the shape and volume of the most unstable blocks, to define the position of the main rock fall source areas, and to precisely distinguish the outcropping materials and the position of the elements at risk for reliable runout analyses. The proposed approach can be useful in supporting proper maintenance and land management programs both in ordinary and in emergency circumstances.     

Advances in landslide nowcasting: evaluation of a global and regional modeling approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of ‘nowcasts’ that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work’s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity–duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.     

RS与GIS支持下的汶川县城周边地质灾害危险性评价

地质灾害危险性评价是防灾减灾工作的重要依据。本文以汶川县城周边64 km2为例,应用遥感信息提取技术与GIS空间分析方法,根据IKONOS遥感图像和地形图及野外调查资料,提取了崩塌和滑坡易发性评价因子,采用信息量法确定了因子分值,计算了崩塌和滑坡易发性,并分别提出崩塌和滑坡的危险性计算方法,形成了汶川地区崩塌和滑坡危险性分区图。研究结果表明:新的崩塌和滑坡危险性评价方法能够反映区内地质灾害危险程度,该方法可行,结果合理,这为中、大比例尺区域范围内地质灾害危险性研究提供了有益的思路。     

Rockfall susceptibility zoning at a large scale: From geomorphological inventory to preliminary land use planning

Rockfall, up to several hundreds of cubic meters, is a frequent and rapid landslide which menaces extensive areas in mountainous territories. Rockfall susceptibility zoning map at a large scale (1:5000–1:25 000) can be the first tool for land use planning in order to manage rockfall risk. A methodology allowing to analyze susceptibility in extensive areas with optimum cost/benefit relationship is needed. This work analyzes rockfall susceptibility in an extensive rocky mountain of the Principality of Andorra (Pyrenees Mountains), first on the rock slope and then on the exposed area located below. The rockfall record, obtained by means of geomorphological analysis, supplies the main data to analyze the susceptibility on the rock slope. An additional historical inventory verifies the accuracy of rockfall sizes recorded by means of the geomorphological analysis. According to the classification recommended by the Guidelines of Joint Technical Committee, the density of rockfall features on the rock slope assesses susceptibility in four levels. Subsequently, susceptibility on exposed areas has been analyzed by means of reach probability of rock blocks analysis using empirical models. Data acquired from thirteen recent events, from 1999 to 2004, have been used to verify the accuracy of the two empirical models mainly used (reach angle and shadow angle). Five reach probability limits (1, 0.5, 0.25, 0.01, and 0) establish boundaries between susceptibility levels. The resulting rockfall susceptibility zoning map allows: (a) to identify land areas and human elements exposed to rockfalls and, (b) to establish several exposition levels. This map can be a useful and cost-effective tool for administrations responsible to manage natural risk in order to guide urban grow in extensive areas or decide upon work programs based on in-depth analysis (hazard and risk).     

Modeling landslide susceptibility over large regions with fuzzy overlay

Landslide susceptibility mapping is most effective if detailed surface and subsurface information can be combined with authoritative landslide catalogs or a deep understanding of local conditions. However, these types of homogeneous input data and catalogs are frequently not available over large areas. In this study, we model landslide susceptibility in Central America and the Caribbean islands by combining three globally available datasets and one regional dataset with fuzzy overlay. This primarily heuristic model provides the flexibility to test a range of different contributing variables and the capability to compare landslide inventories within the model framework that vary greatly in their size, spatiotemporal scope, and collection methods. We create a regional susceptibility map and evaluate its performance using receiver operating characteristics for both continuous and binned susceptibility values. This susceptibility map forms the basis for a near-real-time landslide hazard assessment system that couples susceptibility with rainfall and soil moisture triggers to estimate potential landslide activity at a regional scale. The application of this susceptibility model at the regional scale provides a foundation for transferring the methodology to other geographic areas.     

融合区域潜在落石源区识别的峡谷区落石危险性评价

山西壶关太行山大峡谷景区为中国最美十大峡谷之一,但景区落石灾害频发,严重威胁景区安全运营。本文基于高精度地形信息与岩土体强度特性,采用坡度角分布方法开展区域尺度潜在落石源区识别,并引入岩体破坏敏感性指标定量描述潜在落石源区失稳概率。然后,利用经验模型Flow-R模拟落石运动扩散过程,获取落石的传播概率与能量分布情况。最后,提出落石危险性双因子评价模型实现落石危险性定量评估。获得主要结论如下:(1)研究区内潜在落石源区面积为25.7 km2(35.7%),主要以条带状分布于峡谷两侧陡壁。其中岩体破坏高敏感性区为3.3 km2。(2)研究区落石高危险区面积达3.22 km2,主要威胁景区内游客集散地与交通线路,尤其在S327荫林线红豆峡入口处落石危险性最高。(3)野外调查验证结果表明了应用坡度角分布方法识别潜在落石源区的高效性与准确性,提出的双因子评价模型可为峡谷区落石危险性评估提供快速解决方案。本文提出的“区域落石源区识别-源区失稳概率分析-落石危险性评估”的一整套技术方案能够为类似的高山峡谷区落石灾害早期识别及风险防控提供技术参考。     

Quantifying rock fall probabilities and their temporal distribution associated with weather seasonality

Quantifying rock fall hazards requires information about their frequency and volumes. Previous studies have focused on quantifying rock fall volume–frequency relationships or the weather conditions antecedent to rock fall occurrences, and their potential use as prediction tools. This paper is focused on quantifying rock fall occurrence probabilities and presents approaches for quantifying rock fall temporal distributions. In particular, von Mises distributions allow direct correlation between seasonal weather variations and rock fall occurrences. The approaches are illustrated using a rock fall database along a railway corridor in the Canadian Cordillera, in which rock fall occurrences were correlated to the morphology and lithology. A Binomial probability distribution applied to the annual rock fall frequency suggests an average daily rock fall probability of 1 × 10^?2 across the study area. However, circular (von Mises) distributions associated with weather trends in the area, and fitted to monthly rock fall records, allow estimation of daily rock fall probabilities in different months. This approach allows a direct correlation between rock fall frequencies and seasonal variations in weather conditions. The results suggest daily rock fall probabilities between 4 × 10^?3 and 8 × 10^?3 for April through July and up to 2.1 × 10^?2 in October. Moreover, local peaks in rock fall monthly records are quantitatively explained through the seasonality of weather conditions. Similar values are obtained when applying the Binomial distribution to monthly records. However, this last approach does not show strong distribution fits and does not allow a correlation between rock fall frequencies and seasonal weather variations.     

Quantifying weather conditions for rock fall hazard management

Relationships between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences have been acknowledged in the past, but seldom have such relationships been quantified and published. Rock falls are frequent hazards along transportation corridors through mountainous terrain, and predicting hazardous rock fall periods based on weather conditions can enhance mitigation approaches. We investigate the relationship between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences along a railway section through the Canadian Cordillera. Monthly weather-rock fall trends suggest that the seasonal variation in rock fall frequency is associated with cycles of freezing and thawing during the winter months. The intensity of precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles for different time-windows was then compared against recorded rock falls on a case-by-case approach. We found that periods when 90% of rock falls occurred could be predicted by the 3-day antecedent precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles. Some rock falls not predicted by this 3-day antecedent approach occurred during the first two weeks of spring thaw. These findings are used to propose a rock fall hazard chart, based on readily available weather data, to aid railway operators in their decision-making regarding safe operations.     

Comparison of rockfall susceptibility assessment at local and regional scale: a case study in the north of Beijing (China)

This study shows a rockfall susceptibility assessment at local scale in north Beijing of China, including the identification of rockfall sources onsite by terrain and rock discontinuities analysis and run-out distance prediction by Rocfall^? simulation. Two types of rockfall were defined including one type on the cliffs with long inclined slopes and another type on the road slopes with low height. Two historical rockfall events were used to back-calibrating the parameters used for run-out distance simulation. Based on the work, rockfall susceptibility map at local scale was created in GIS, which was compared with the map obtained at regional scale (entire Huairou district scale). Due to the difference of approaches applied, procedure of assessment and types of source data acquired, the two resulting rockfall susceptibility maps are proved to be different. Still, both of them are useful and could be used at different level’s decision for rockfall prevention and mitigation. Different types of uncertainties exist in the study of rockfall susceptibility assessment. To reduce the uncertainties, studies on both approaches and techniques are suggested.     

危岩体坠落冲击对输气管道影响的分析评价

近年来忠武输气管道山区段发生了多起危岩坠落危害管道的事件,已经严重威胁到输气管道正常运行。本文以恩施石马岭危岩为例,结合运动学和概率统计分析的模型,利用Rocfall软件对危岩运动情况进行了模拟,并在此基础上用两种方法计算了冲击力,对比分析了两种计算结果并指出了计算结果差异的原因。评价认为危岩坠落冲击将会对管道造成严重破坏,必须对危岩体进行治理。     

Experimentally gained parameters,decisive for rock fall analysis

Summary This paper presents the methodology adopted for assessing experimental parameters relevant to computer rockfall analyses and describes the data gathered from several in situ rockfall tests carried out by ISMES and ENEL CRIS during recent years.Through the calculation of block velocities during their fall from and onto slopes of various geometry, and the measurement of the run-out distances, heights of bounce and the geometric characteristics of blocks, the following experimental parameters were studied: Restitution Coefficient, Rolling Friction Coefficient, dispersion of trajectories, effect of block geometry on its fall, and efficiency of a ditch, at the bottom of a slope, for arresting fallen blocks.     

Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in granitic rocks using GIS-based statistical methods: the contribution of the weathering grade map

Shallow landslides (i.e., slide, flow, and complex) are widespread around the world, affecting the soil mantle and upper regolith as a result of the weathering of granitic bedrock, and periodically cause enormous social and economic damages. Shallow landslide hazards are predominantly due to the scarcity of warning signs during the pre-failure stage, high velocities reached in the post-failure phase, and an increase in mobilized volumes caused by the entrapment of material in the downhill path of the phenomena. Owing to the abovementioned aspects, susceptibility assessment of shallow landslides in weathered granitic rocks is a relevant issue for land use planning and design purposes. This study proposes a three-step methodology for the susceptibility assessment of these phenomena. The methodology has been tested and validated at the 1:10,000 scale over a 30.4-km² area in southern Italy, where weathered granitic rocks are periodically affected by shallow landslides. This methodology is divided into three successive steps: step 1 consists of database creation, with an emphasis on the weathering grade map (including five weathering classes, from class II to class VI, each one characterized by comparable mechanical behavior), and steps 2 and 3 focus respectively on susceptibility map calibration and validation through statistical analyses. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) shows values ranging from 0.95 in step 2 (calibration) to 0.88 in step 3 (validation) and is a testament to the good overall predictive accuracy of the methodology. The obtained results demonstrate both the effectiveness and the consistency of the proposed methodology in performing susceptibility mapping of shallow landslides in weathered granitic rocks, as well as the important role played by the weathering grade map.     

贵州开阳县龙井湾崩塌地质灾害评估及防治

龙井湾崩塌是磷矿开采引发和加剧的,龙井湾沟谷分布有崩塌6处。文章通过对崩塌区地质环境的勘查,阐述了该区的地质构造、岩性条件、水文地质条件及当前存在的采空区范围及特点,继而采用概率法对采空区上覆的岩体稳定性进行分析,得出了磷矿层的开采将在其上方相应的地表造成一定的变形与移动的结论,阐明了该区崩塌产生的机理,评估了崩塌体的引发和加剧对磷石膏堆场工程的危害性,提出了禁采区范围、清理危岩体(壁)等防治的工程措施。     

Rock fall hazard control along a section of railway based on quantified risk

Rock falls represent a large percentage of landslide-related hazards reported by Canadian railways in mountainous terrain. A 54.7?km-long section of railway through the Canadian Cordillera is examined that experiences, on average, 18 rock falls each year. An approach for rock fall hazard management is developed based on quantified risk. The approach focuses on defining railway operation procedures (freight train operations and track maintenance) that comply with quantified risks. Weather-based criteria that define periods when rock falls are more likely to occur along the study area are examined. These criteria are used herein to reduce exposure to rock falls and reduce their consequences. Several freight train operation strategies are proposed that comply with a tolerable level of risk adopted in this study for illustrative purposes. The approach provides a simple, flexible and practical strategy for railway operations that can be regularly adopted by the operators, and that is based on a more comprehensive assessment of quantified risk.     

Quantitative assessment of rock texture and correlation with drillability and strength properties

Summary A dimensionless quantitative measure of rock texture, describing grain: —shape, orientation, degree of grain interlocking and relative proportions of grains and matrix (packing density) has been developed. Data required for the model are obtained by image analysis of thin sections and concerns percentage areas of grains and matrix, length, breadth, perimeter, orientation and area of each grain in the viewing window. The results of rock strength, diamond and percussion drillability tests in eleven sandstones, marbles and igneous rocks are reported, and correlated with the developed texture coefficient. The texture coefficient returns highly statistically significant correlations with rock strength and drillability data. Sandstones have low texture coefficients and high drillability whereas igneous rocks have high texture coefficients and low drillability. With particular reference to percussive drillability it is suggested that extensional crack propagation in the sandstones in an energy efficient process since fracture paths propagate through the weak phyllosilicate matrix. Extensional crack propagation in the igneous rocks is an energy intensive process since a significant proportion of the available drilling energy is consumed in the formation of intra-granular fracture paths. Observational and correlated data are supportive of the suggestion that the texture coefficient is a measure of the resistance of the microstructure of a rock to crack propagation, whether it be inter-or intra-granular. The texture coefficient can be used as a predictive tool for the assessment of drillability and rock strength properties. The technique offers a useful approach in understanding fracture initiation and growth as controlled by the texture of intact rock samples.     

Assessing rockfall susceptibility in steep and overhanging slopes using three-dimensional analysis of failure mechanisms

Rockfalls strongly influence the evolution of steep rocky landscapes and represent a significant hazard in mountainous areas. Defining the most probable future rockfall source areas is of primary importance for both geomorphological investigations and hazard assessment. Thus, a need exists to understand which areas of a steep cliff are more likely to be affected by a rockfall. An important analytical gap exists between regional rockfall susceptibility studies and block-specific geomechanical calculations. Here we present methods for quantifying rockfall susceptibility at the cliff scale, which is suitable for sub-regional hazard assessment (hundreds to thousands of square meters). Our methods use three-dimensional point clouds acquired by terrestrial laser scanning to quantify the fracture patterns and compute failure mechanisms for planar, wedge, and toppling failures on vertical and overhanging rock walls. As a part of this work, we developed a rockfall susceptibility index for each type of failure mechanism according to the interaction between the discontinuities and the local cliff orientation. The susceptibility for slope parallel exfoliation-type failures, which are generally hard to identify, is partly captured by planar and toppling susceptibility indexes. We tested the methods for detecting the most susceptible rockfall source areas on two famously steep landscapes, Yosemite Valley (California, USA) and the Drus in the Mont-Blanc massif (France). Our rockfall susceptibility models show good correspondence with active rockfall sources. The methods offer new tools for investigating rockfall hazard and improving our understanding of rockfall processes.     

Producing landslide-susceptibility maps for regional planning in data-scarce regions

In many of the lesser developed areas of the world, regional development planning is increasingly important for meeting the needs of current and future inhabitants. Expansion of economic capability, infrastructure, and residential capacity requires significant investment, and so efforts to limit the negative effect of landslides and other natural hazards on these investments are crucial. Many of the newer approaches to identifying and mapping relative landslide susceptibility within a developing area are hindered by insufficient data in the places where it is most needed. An approach called matrix assessment was specifically designed for regional development planning where data may be limited. Its application produces a landslide-susceptibility map suitable for use with other planning data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. Its development also encourages collecting basic landslide inventory data suitable for site-specific studies and for refining landslide hazard assessments in the future. This paper illustrates how matrix assessment methodology was applied to produce a landslide-susceptibility map for the Commonwealth of Dominica, an island nation in the eastern Caribbean, and how with a follow up study the relative landslide-susceptibility mapping was validated. A second Caribbean application on Jamaica demonstrates how this methodology can be applied in a more geologically complex setting. A validated approach to mapping landslide susceptibility which does not require extensive input data offers a significant benefit to planning in lesser developed parts of the world.     

多源遥感数据在新疆卡拉麦里地区岩矿识别中的应用

遥感技术广泛应用于地质基础调查、矿产资源勘探、环境评估和地质灾害调查等方面。它已从多光谱发展到高光谱阶段,Landsat- 8是目前最具有代表性和最常用的多光谱数据,ASTER具有高的分辨率和多波段特征,资源一号02D(ZY1- 02D)卫星是我国2019年发射的高光谱业务卫星。为了更好地了解多源遥感数据在岩矿识别中的作用,在新疆东天山卡拉麦里地区进行了相关研究。结果表明：Landsat- 8 OLI的PCA变换结果清晰识别了研究区不同的岩性和地层;使用Landsat- 8 OLI、ASTER和ZY1- 02D高光谱数据,分别采取不同的图像端元提取方法,在进行光谱分析的基础上,利用光谱角填图（SAM）即可得到研究区的主要矿物分类图件。通过野外验证,应用GIS技术进行集成和分析,修正相关图件后,便得到了精准的矿物分类综合图。研究表明：多源遥感数据的集成在岩矿识别方面效果良好、前景巨大。     

A predictive modeling approach to assessing the groundwater pollution susceptibility of the Paluxy Aquifer, Central Texas, using a Geographic Information System

The Paluxy aquifer in north-central Texas is composed primarily of Lower Cretaceous clastics. This aquifer provides water for both domestic and agricultural purposes in the region. The study area for this investigation incorporates the outcrop and recharge areas, as well as the confined and unconfined portions of the aquifer. The purpose of this investigation is to develop a predictive modeling approach for evaluating the susceptibility of groundwater in the Paluxy aquifer to contamination, and then compare this susceptibility evaluation to water-chemistry data collected from wells completed within the aquifer. Using such an approach allows one to investigate the potential for groundwater contamination on a regional, rather than site-specific scale. Based on data from variables such as land use/land cover, soil permeability, depth to water, aquifer hydraulic conductivity and topography, subjective numerical weightings have been assigned according to each variables' relative importance in groundwater pollution susceptibility. The weights for each variable comprise a Geographic Information System (GIS) map layer. These map layers are combined to formulate the final pollution susceptibility map. Using this method of investigation, the pollution susceptibility map classifies 32% of the study area as having low pollution susceptibility, 41% as having moderate pollution susceptibility, 25% as having high pollution susceptibility, and 2% as having very high pollution susceptibility. When comparing these modeling results with water-chemistry data from wells within the Paluxy aquifer, the four wells with the highest concentration of nitrate contamination are all found within regions of very high pollution potential. This confirms the accuracy and usefulness of the predictive modeling approach for assessing aquifer pollution susceptibility. Received: 1 June 1999 · Accepted: 30 August 1999