区域泥石流易损性评价

以联合国公布的易损性定义为基础,论述了影响区域易损性的代表性因子及其量化方法,探讨了各因子与易损性的相互关系,论证了区域泥石流易损性评价的建模过程及其数学表达.区域泥石流易损性反映泥石流作用下垫面的社会、经济和环境属性,与固定资产投资、国内生产总值和土地资源价值以及人口密度和人口质量(年龄大小、教育水平、富裕程度)有关.区域泥石流易损性定量表达为财产指标赋值和人口指标赋值平均值的平方根.以四川凉山州为研究实例,对此评价方法进行了应用.     

坡面泥石流降雨预报模型

中国东部地区的地质灾害多以坡面泥石流的形式发生,预测预报坡面泥石流的发生对于开展防灾减灾具有重要意义。地形、地质和降雨三大条件是影响坡面泥石流发生的主要条件。通过选择同样地质条件和基本相同降雨条件的区域,研究影响坡面泥石流发生的地形条件,并得出可以用于坡面泥石流预报的坡面泥石流地形条件。结果表明:地形条件由坡面坡度因子、泥石流上部因子、泥石流侧面因子和临空面因子组成;较大的地形条件T对应较大的泥石流发生可能性;降雨条件由泥石流发生前的降雨量与1 h降雨量组成;得出了由地形条件T和降雨条件R组成的坡面泥石流预报条件P,P值越大,坡面泥石流发生的可能性越大。预报条件P可以预报坡面泥石流的发生。     

物源条件对震后泥石流发展影响的初步分析

强震过后一定时期内,泥石流的活跃性增强,即数量增多、规模增大、频率增加。而随着松散物质储量的减少,泥石流的活跃性会随之衰减。为了具体考察物源条件对震后泥石流活动的影响,使用震后泥石流逐年平均输沙量作为刻画泥石流活跃性的指标,在云南蒋家沟和西藏古乡沟泥石流数据的基础上,定量地分析了震后泥石流活跃性的变化过程。分析表明存在降雨控制型和物源控制型两种泥石流流域。前者的泥石流在震后很长一段时间内都不衰减,其发生主要取决于降雨条件。后者最大规模的泥石流发生于地震过后的短时间内,尔后泥石流活动随时间显著减弱。泥石流规模和频率的关系与暴雨不一致。当物源控制型流域的无量纲化活跃性指标值降为0.12左右时,可以认为泥石流进入了稳定或者衰弱期,不会再有大规模的泥石流事件发生。数据拟合结果表明,整个泥石流活跃性的衰减过程可以用幂函数来描述。其衰减指数与剩余物质储量和总物质储量之比存在密切的关系。这为定量预测震后泥石流发展趋势提供了一个初步的模型。     

多元线性回归分析在车大人沟河泥石流分区与评价中的应用

本文在概述车大人沟河流域泥石流形成的地形地貌、物源和水源等条件的基础上，采用多元线性回归分析方法，选取了物源储量、支沟完整性系数、支沟边坡坡度、支沟沟床比降、冲沟密度、侵蚀模数、不良地质现象和植被覆盖率等八个指标作为自变量，建立与泥石流活跃度间相关关系的数学表达式，计算出车大人沟河40条泥石流支沟活跃度值，从而进行分区评价。将该区泥石流活跃度划分为高、中、低易发区和不发育区，其结果与实地灾情相符，可为车大人沟河流域泥石流防治规划提供科学依据。     

A size classification for debris flows

A 10-fold classification for debris flow size is proposed based on total volume, peak discharge and area inundated by debris. Size classes can be used for regional overview studies where detailed site investigations are either unnecessary, too costly or where the highest hazard and risk creeks need to be identified for further study. They are also useful to compare the regional impact between affected areas and the effects of rainstorms, and they allow lay-people to obtain an understanding of debris flow magnitude and consequences. Finally, different size classes allow the estimation of travel times to points of interest based on empirically derived equations. It is proposed that agencies concerned with debris flows should establish a documentation of debris flow size according to this classification, which serves as a data base for hazard and risk planning.     

浙江省泥石流发育特征

浙江省地形复杂,山地面积大,暴雨频繁,尤其近年来受台风影响,泥石流等山地灾害频发。本文通过浙江省泥石流的调查成果,综合分析区内泥石流发育特征。通过分析,浙江泥石流主要有如下独特的发育特征:沟床比降大,相对高差小,两侧山坡坡度大,流程短,流域面积小等;地质构造上:泥石流主要发育在全-强风化的火山碎屑岩区域,沿深大断裂成带状分布;泥石流三区特征:三区分界不明显,尤其流通区和堆积区难以区分等。本文初次系统分析总结了浙江省泥石流发育特征,对浙江省泥石流形成机理、泥石流防灾减灾等的进一步分析研究提供了科学的依据。     

Modelling and numerical simulation of two-phase debris flows

Gravity-driven geophysical mass flows often consist of fluid–sediment mixtures. The contemporary presence of a fluid and a granular phase determines a complicated fluid-like and solid-like behaviour. The present paper adopts the mixture theory to incorporate the two phases and describe their respective movements. For the granular phase, a Mohr–Coulomb plasticity is employed to describe the relationship between normal and shear stresses, while for the fluid phase, the viscous Newtonian fluid is taken into account. At the basal topography, a Coulomb sliding condition for the solid phase and a Navier’s sliding condition for the fluid phase are satisfied, while the top free surface is traction-free for both the phases. For the interactive forces between the phases, the buoyancy force and viscous drag force are included. The established governing equations are expressed in a curvilinear coordinate system embedded in a curvilinear reference basal surface, above which an arbitrary shallow basal topography is permitted. Taking into account the typical length characteristics of such geophysical mass flows, the “thin-layer” approximation is assumed, so that a depth integration can be performed to simplify the governing equations. The resulting strongly nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) are first simplified and then analysed for a steady state in a travelling coordinate system. We find the current model can reproduce the characteristic shape of some flow fronts. Additionally, a stability analysis for steady uniform flows is performed to demonstrate the development of roll waves that means instabilities grow up and become clearly distinguishable waves. Furthermore, we numerically solve the resulting PDEs to investigate general unsteady flows down a curved surface by means of a high-resolution non-oscillatory central difference scheme with the total variation diminishing property. The dynamic behaviours of the granular and fluid phases, especially, the effects of the drag force and the fluid bed friction are discussed. These investigations can enhance the understanding of physics behind natural debris flows.     

Vulnerability assessment of rainfall-induced debris flows in Taiwan

A GIS-based decision support system, which incorporates local topographic and rainfall effects on debris flow vulnerability is developed. Rainfall at a scale compatible with the digital elevation model resolution is obtained using a neural network with a wind-induced topographic effect and rainfall derived from satellite rain estimates and an adaptive inverse distance weight method (WTNN). The technique is tested using data collected during the passage of typhoon Tori-Ji on July 2001 over central Taiwan. Numerous debris flows triggered by the typhoon were used as control for the study. Our results show that the WTNN technique outperforms other interpolation techniques including adaptive inversed distance weight (AIDW), simple kriging (SK), co-kriging, and multiple linear regression using gauge, and topographic parameters. Multiple remotely-sensed, fuzzy-based debris-flow susceptibility parameters are used to describe the characteristics of watersheds. Non-linear, multi-variant regressions using the WTNN derived rainfall and topography factors are derived using self-organizing maps (SOM) for the debris flow vulnerability assessment. An index of vulnerability representing the degrees of hazard is implemented in a GIS-based decision support system by which a decision maker can assess debris flow vulnerability.     

Characteristics analysis for the flash flood-induced debris flows

Typhoon Haitang caused landfall on Taiwan during 15–21 July, 2005 and brought 2,279 mm of maximum cumulative rain with a maximum intensity of 176 mm/h. The torrential rain was mainly distributed from the central mountain range to southern Taiwan and triggered 222 slopeland-related hazards. Among the hazard events, there were 17 debris flows, 157 cases of traffic cut-off, three large-magnitude deep-seated landslides, and 10 villages isolated in the off-track mountainous areas. The debris flows initiated in southern Taiwan were associated with torrential rain, short channel length (<2 km), and small basin area (<3 km²), and were speculated to be induced by flash flood. These flash flood-induced debris flows have a higher rainfall intensity-duration threshold for initiation than in other areas. The deep-seated landslides, isolated villages due to traffic cut-off in off-track mountain areas, and recurrent hazards in areas affected by the M_L 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999 are characteristics of slopeland hazards in Taiwan in recent years. One of the most urgently needed mitigation strategies in response to slopeland hazards is the plan for enhancing self-rescue disaster resistance in off-track mountainous villages in Taiwan.     

中国公路泥石流研究

公路泥石流是指发育于公路沿线并对公路桥涵、路基路面及相应防护结构具有冲击毁损和淤埋破坏的病害类型。丰富的物源、具有焚风效应的气象条件以及泥石流沟轴线与区域新构造应力场主压应力方向一致等是形成大型泥石流的宏观背景。将泥石流概化为固、液两相流体,运用两相流理论、泥沙运动力学、Bingham流变方程和Bagnold颗粒相互作用试验结果等,初步建立了泥石流固-液分相流速计算方法、基于泥石流在防治结构表面及泥石流沟岸产生的冲击形迹建立的反求泥石流冲击力计算方法以及泥石流磨蚀力计算方法。开发了速流结构、泥石流隧道及翼型墩汇流结构等10余种防治技术,集成了拦-汇-排等多种综合治理模式。据此撰写了《公路泥石流防治工程设计、施工指南》。实施了60余个防治工程。效果显著。研究成果初步构建了公路泥石流理论及技术体系。     

Research on prediction of debris flows triggered in channels

The accurate prediction of debris flows occurrence that will allow the reduction or prevention of economic losses and human casualties is presently the most difficult aspect of debris flows studies but also the aspect that receives most attention. Most prediction methods are based on rainfall as the basic parameter, with the moment of occurrence as only result, and without a prediction of debris flow travel time and size. This paper takes Jiangjia Gully in Dongchuan of Yunnan Province as an example, and considers, on the basis of the fulfillment of the essential condition: the abundant availability of loose materials, the conditions for the formation of debris flows. Based on the mechanism of the initiation of debris flows in channels and the volume of rainfall in the basin, this paper also gives a systematic analysis on the travel time and size of the debris flow and suggests that the hydrological condition for forming debris flow is the unit discharge of the flood ≥0.35 m³/s.m. It uses the 10-min rainfall intensity to calculate both the run-off of the rainfall and the unit discharge caused by the run-off, thus predicting the occurrence of debris flows. The velocity and the travel time of a debris flow can also be determined using the unit discharge of the run-off. The total volume of debris flows can be calculated using the 10-min intensity of rainfall and the total volume of the run-off, together with the volume concentration of the sediment in a debris flow.     

Modelling of short runout propagation landslides and debris flows

This paper proposes an extension of methods used to predict the propagation of landslides having a long runout to smaller landslides with much shorter propagation distances. The method is based on: (1) a depth-integrated mathematical model including the coupling between the soil skeleton and the pore fluids, (2) suitable rheological models describing the relation between the stress and the rate of deformation tensors for fluidised soils and (3) a meshless numerical method, Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics, which separates the computational mesh (or set of computational nodes) from the mesh describing the terrain topography, which is of structured type – thus accelerating search operations. The proposed model is validated using two examples for which there are analytical solutions, and then it is applied to two short runout landslides which happened in Hong Kong in 1995, for which there is available information.     

The application of genetic algorithm in debris flows prediction

Debris flows caused serious loss of human lives and damages to properties in Taiwan for the past decades. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied including numerical method, statistic method, experiment method and neural network method in recent years. This study proposed a genetic algorithm (GA) model for occurrence prediction of debris flows. A total of 154 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the GA for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 90.4% demonstrates that the presented GA model can provide a stable and reliable result for prediction of debris flows in the hazard mitigation and guarding system.     

北京市泥石流灾害临界雨量研究

降雨是泥石流灾害的主要诱发因素。文章根据北京市历史上泥石流灾害发生时的前期雨量与当日激发雨量,建立了临界雨量判别模型。通过对北京地区泥石流灾害与降雨频率的分析,计算了不同时段的临界雨量;经验证明,计算结果是可信的。基于灾害与降雨频率分析来确定北京地区泥石流发生的临界雨量是一种新的尝试。该方法可用于计算不同泥石流沟道发生泥石流的临界雨量。     

Recognition, classification and mechanical description of debris flows

Various types of flow or mass movement involving water and sediments occur on steep slopes in mountainous areas. Among them, debris flows are peculiar events during which a large volume of a highly concentrated viscous water-debris mixture flows through a stream channel. Throughout the world these phenomena cause considerable damage but remain poorly understood although a basic knowledge is already available concerning their recognition and propagation.

Firstly, a synthesis of the useful practical criteria of recognition is proposed. Debris flows must be seen as intermediate phenomena between hyperconcentrated flows (intense bed load transport) and landslides separated from them by sharp transitions of some characteristics (celerity, deposit nature and flow type). Two parameters, solid fraction and material type, thought to be appropriate for a sound and practical classification, are brought out, and the corresponding complete classification of flow and mass movements in mountain areas is presented. Two extreme debris flow types are thus distinguished: muddy debris flows and granular debris flows. A critical review of recent advances in debris flow dynamic is then proposed. It is pointed out that adequate work must be carried out in the field of non-Newtonian fluid mechanics. In particular, one fundamental rheological property of debris flow materials is the yield stress, which explains thick deposits on steep slopes and can be inferred from field measurements. Furthermore it can be used to estimate viscous dissipation within the bulk during flow. Relevant models predicting muddy debris flow dynamics are already available whereas further progress is needed concerning granular flows.     

无水滑的水下泥石流运动速度的实验研究

水下泥石流阻力与陆面中泥石流运动阻力的不同点在于上表面的掺混阻力和剪切阻力。由一系列的室内无水滑的水下泥石流和陆面泥石流实验研究得出:水下泥石流运动速度与相同条件下陆面泥石流运动速度之比随不同性质的泥石流,如粘性和稀性泥石流,由于其屈服应力的巨大差别,有很大的不同。由实验得到的由泥石流体的容重和量纲为一的泥石流屈服应力表达的水下无水滑泥石流运动速度和陆面泥石流运动速度用于无水滑水下泥石流运动速度计算较好。     

The experimental debris flows in the Chemolgan river basin

Debris flows are one of the most dangerous and common hydrological phenomena in mountainous regions. They are extremely various in their type and character, but they are always mountain flows consisting of a mixture of water and loose-fragmental debris. The problem of calculation and forecasting the mudflows still remains intractable. There are several reasons for that: Firstly, the representatives of the whole spectrum of the Earth Sciences (Hydrology, Geology, Geomorphology, Geography, Mechanics, Rheology) deal with this problem from their point of view. Secondly, systematic monitoring of passing debris flows are currently held only in several countries only (USA, Canada, Austria, Switzerland, Japan, China), because they require significant funding. Thirdly, the calculation methods, having been accepted for the present time, give certain errors. In this article, the results of the artificially triggered debris flow experiments conducted in 1972–1976 in the Chemolgan river basin, organized by the Kazakh Research Hydrometeorological Institute are described. These were the first full-scale experiments with the detailed recording of the numerous debris flows characteristics ever conducted. The movie is attached as supplementary material to the Editorial of the Special Issue. The information about the used measurement equipment, the obtained characteristics of debris flows, the debris flow classification accepted as a result of the experiments is given. Conducting such experiments in nature allowed us to assess various aspects of the formation of these natural phenomena and made it possible to build the mathematical models of the debris flow processes.     

北京地区暴雨泥石流预警阈值研究

泥石流是北京地区主要的地质灾害,强降雨是触发这一灾害的主控因子。因此,触发泥石流临界雨量的厘定成为实现高精度预报预警和防灾减灾的关键。但是,以前的研究多基于简单数据统计或定性分析层面,远不能满足地质灾害预警需要高精度定量数据的要求。文章对1949年以来北京地区发生的泥石流与其发生时期的降水数据进行了系统收集整理,对降雨强度-降雨持续时间和降雨量-降雨持续时间的泥石流触发临界值进行了高分辨的分析和厘定,首次建立了临界雨量的定量估算模型,分别为Ι=56.9×D^-0.746与R=59.9×D^0.253。通过与全球其他地区的临界阈值模式对比发现,在降雨持续时间较短时,北京地区的临界雨量高于全球性和一些区域性临界雨量,而随降雨时间的增加,全球范围内的临界雨量具有收敛趋势。这表明不同地区的临界雨量,特别是短时暴雨触发的泥石流,需根据区域特征来厘定。随降水时间的增加,区域地质地貌的影响会逐渐减小,而降水的控制作用会逐渐明显。北京地区泥石流发生时期降雨持续时间与降雨强度和总降雨量之间相互关系表明,泥石流的发生不仅需要较大的降雨强度,而且需要一定的降雨量。因此...     

Structure and composition of debris flows in the Eastern Sayan

Based on the catastrophic June 28, 2014, Arshan debris flows in the Eastern Sayan Mountains, the structure and lithological composition of the debris are studied and a debris flow defense system is proposed. Among five debris flows in this region, two flows 4.1 and 5.6 km long are scrutinized. The grain size and mineral composition of fans and mudflows, as well as their evolution scenario are studied. The paper also examines the engineering-geological features of debris flow sediments and their textural-structural and physical alterations in the course of settling. Specific attention is devoted to the lithological and climatic constraints of debris flows. It is noted that sediments of recent mudflows are characterized by a high underconsolidation and deliquescence, promoting the formation of high-plastic and fluidal zones that can migrate actively. The approach proposed for debris flow defense measures lies in the construction of flow diversion dams designed for orienting the debris flows toward the “debris dump site.”     

The Saharan debris flow: an insight into the mechanics of long runout submarine debris flows

New 3·5 kHz profiles and a series of piston cores from the north-west African margin provide evidence that the Saharan debris flow travelled for more than 400 km on a highly fluid, low-friction layer of poorly sorted sediment. Data suggest that the Saharan debris flow is a two-phase event, consisting of a basal, volcaniclastic debris flow phase overlain by a pelagic debris flow phase. Both phases were emplaced on the lower continental rise by a single large debris flow at around 60 ka. The volcaniclastic flow left a thin deposit less than 5 m thick. This contrasts with the much thicker (over 25 m) deposit left by the pelagic debris flow phase. We suggest that pelagic sediment, sourced and mobilized as debris flow from the African continental margin, loaded and destabilized volcaniclastic material in the vicinity of the western Canaries. When subjected to this loading, the volcaniclastic material appears to have formed a highly fluid sandy debris flow, capable of transporting with it the huge volumes of pelagic debris, and contributing to a runout distance extending over 400 km downslope of the Canary Islands on slopes that decrease to as little as 0·05°. It is likely that the pelagic debris formed a thick impermeable slab above the volcanic debris, thus maintaining high pore pressures generated by loading and giving rise to low apparent friction conditions. The distribution of the two debris phases indicates that the volcaniclastic debris flow stopped within a few tens of kilometres after escaping from beneath the pelagic debris flow, probably because of dissipation of excess pore pressure when the seal of pelagic material was removed.