Investigation of failure prediction of open-pit coal mine landslides containing complex geological structures using the inverse velocity method

The prediction of time to slope failure (TOF) is one of the most pivotal concerns for both geological risk researchers and practitioners. Conventional inverse velocity method (IVM), based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, has become an effective method to solve this problem because it is easy to perform and the prediction results are generally acceptable. Practically, some limitations like random instrumental noise, environmental noise, and measurement error are ubiquitous factors hampered the reliability of the prediction. In this work, traditional IVM method and modified IVM with three different filters are respectively detected on velocity time series from an landslide event in an open-pit coal mine with the propose of improving, in retrospect, the accuracy of failure predictions. Simultaneously, the effects of noise on the appraisal of IVM graphics are also assessed and explanation. The results demonstrate that the sliding process of landslides can be divided into three signature stages based on the IVM. Noteworthily, the slope failure critical point occurs at the end of the progressive stage and generally coincides with a major acceleration event in which almost integrity of the slope is lost, transitioning to a linear trend ever since. Additionally, the short-term smoothing filter (SSF) and long-term smoothing filter (LSF) models can provide more accuracy and useful information about the probable failure time. Finally, with the intention of enhancing the feasible use of the method and supporting pre-determined response plans, two-level alert procedures combing SSF and LSF are proposed.

Graphical abstract

     

Discussion to: ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri,F. Di Traglia,T. Nolesini,G. Gigli and N. Casagli

The paper ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli deals with a sensitive topic for landslide risk management. Exploring the pre-failure behaviour of four different case histories, the authors proposed standard procedures for the application of the inverse velocity method (INV, Fukuzono 1985). Specifically, they suggested guidelines for the filtering of velocity data and an original and simple approach to automatically set the first and the second alarm thresholds using the inverse velocity method. The present discussion addresses three different topics: (1) data filter selection according to the features of monitoring instrument; (2) the importance of data sampling frequency for the forecasting analysis and (3) the influence of the starting point (SP in this discussion) for the application of INV analysis. Moreover, based on this matter, a new method is proposed to update the INV analysis on an ongoing basis.     

B-splines for smoothing and differentiating data sequences

Sequence convolution formulae, based on the B-splines of I. J. Schoenberg provide simple and effective methods for smoothing and differentiating data sequences. Their time and frequency domain properties allow calculation of the degree of smoothing and noise rejection, and their z-transforms lead to the rapid calculation of formulae from a simple sequence of polynomials. As an example of their use, numerical differentiation is used to produce smooth velocity—depth profiles and to delineate major velocity discontinuities from time—depth data logged at a well.     

An edge-based strain smoothing particle finite element method for large deformation problems in geotechnical engineering

To solve large deformation geotechnical problems, a novel strain-smoothed particle finite element method (SPFEM) is proposed that incorporates a simple and effective edge-based strain smoothing method within the framework of original PFEM. Compared with the original PFEM, the proposed novel SPFEM can solve the volumetric locking problem like previously developed node-based smoothed PFEM when lower-order triangular element is used. Compared with the node-based smoothed PFEM known as “overly soft” or underestimation property, the proposed SPFEM offers super-convergent and very accurate solutions due to the implementation of edge-based strain smoothing method. To guarantee the computational stability, the proposed SPFEM uses an explicit time integration scheme and adopts an adaptive updating time step. Performance of the proposed SPFEM for geotechnical problems is first examined by four benchmark numerical examples: (a) bar vibrations, (b) large settlement of strip footing, (c) collapse of aluminium bars column, and (d) failure of a homogeneous soil slope. Finally, the progressive failure of slope of sensitive clay is simulated using the proposed SPFEM to show its outstanding performance in solving large deformation geotechnical problems. All results demonstrate that the novel SPFEM is a powerful and easily extensible numerical method for analysing large deformation problems in geotechnical engineering.     

密集线性台阵地震背景噪声速度成像及其在湖南沃溪金钨锑矿勘探中的应用

多道面波分析技术在近地表勘探领域有着广泛应用,准确的提取频散曲线成为面波勘探成像的关键。文章介绍了一种新的地震背景噪声互相关面波频散成像方法——拓距相移法。该方法在传统相移法的基础上,利用阵内相移对小孔径范围的面波中高频信号进行提取,并利用阵外相移对大孔径范围的面波中低频信号进行提取,然后将两部分频散曲线融合从而得到更宽频带的面波频散曲线用于地下速度结构的反演。该方法在保证对近地表结构进行较高分辨率成像的同时,大大增加对深部结构的有效约束。2019年9月到10月期间,作者在湖南沃溪布设了8条密集测线,进行了1个月的地震背景噪声数据采集,并利用上述拓距相移法提取了0.1~2 s的瑞利面波宽频带相速度频散曲线。通过初步反演其中3条测线的背景噪声数据,获得了该矿区深度2.5 km以浅的地震横波速度结构。经与已知地质资料比对,160测线的地震横波速度反演结果与断层、岩性分界面及矿脉有着较好的对应关系,表明获得的沃溪矿区地震横波速度结构较好地反映了控矿构造、岩性分界以及矿体的分布位置等信息,为该区中—深部找矿提供了重要依据。该研究利用实际数据检验了拓距相移法的有效性,为今后深部找矿提供了一个有效的高精度成像方法。     

线性工程岩溶塌陷危险性评价研究

近年来,越来越多的高等级公路、铁路、石油管线等线性工程穿越岩溶发育区,岩溶塌陷已成为这些线性工程建设面临的主要隐患之一。目前,线性工程项目前期都会进行全线地质灾害危险性评价工作,但大部分是定性的,也没有专门针对岩溶塌陷的评价,因此本文从岩溶塌陷的影响因素出发,结合线性工程的各个阶段,从点、线、面三个层次提出线性工程岩溶塌陷危险性评价的方法和指标,并列举了实例,为今后穿越岩溶区的线性工程提供借鉴。面上和线上评价充分利用GIS技术和层次分析法进行。前者适合于地质资料不详细的可行性研究阶段,评价区为线路两侧1km的区域,评价因子有岩溶发育程度、地质构造发育程度、地貌类型、岩溶塌陷、地下河、垂直型岩溶形态、岩溶泉和开采井分布。后者适合于地质资料较详细的初步设计阶段,评价区为线路两侧15m的范围,以基岩岩性、线岩溶率、土层厚度、土层性质、地下水位和地下水位与基岩面的关系作为评价因子。点上评价适合于重点地段,采用岩溶塌陷动力条件与土层抗塌性能相结合的综合分析方法,以反映地下水动力特征的临界坡降、临界速度和临界水位这3个指标作为评价因子。      

在小波域中恢复白噪背景下探地雷达信号

针对实际中所观测到的探地雷达信号时常会被噪声污染的问题,根据小波分析和分形理论在多尺度分析和自相似本质上的一致性,从研究分数布朗运动小波系数的统计特性,分析信号和噪声对小波系数统计特性的影响,在探地雷达信号处理中引入小波分析和随机分形理论,提出了在小波域中,使用平滑因子恢复加性白噪背景下探地雷达信号。仿真实验表明,该方法能有效地恢复白噪背景下探地雷达信号,显著地提高了信噪比(由0 db提高到13.9 db)。     

Continuous velocity fields for collapse and blowout of a pressurized tunnel face in purely cohesive soil

Face stability analysis of tunnels excavated under pressurized shields is a major issue in real tunnelling projects. Most of the failure mechanisms used for the stability analysis of tunnels in purely cohesive soils were derived from rigid block failure mechanisms that were developed for frictional soils, by imposing a null friction angle. For a purely cohesive soil, this kind of mechanism is quite far from the actual velocity field. This paper aims at proposing two new continuous velocity fields for both collapse and blowout of an air‐pressurized tunnel face. These velocity fields are much more consistent with the actual failures observed in undrained clays. They are based on the normality condition, which states that any plastic deformation in a purely cohesive soil develops without any volume change. The numerical results have shown that the proposed velocity fields significantly improve the best existing bounds for collapse pressures and that their results compare reasonably well with the collapse and blowout pressures provided by a commercial finite difference software, for a much smaller computational cost. A design chart is provided for practical use in geotechnical engineering. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多目标函数的黏弹性全波形反演

全波形反演是勘探地球物理领域兴起的核心技术之一,不但可以构建地下速度结构,也能够反演衰减参数(品质因子Q)模型,有助于识别地下介质类型和构造(如流体和煤层陷落柱),对煤和油气等自然资源的勘探和开发有重要意义。参数串扰是黏弹性全波形反演的关键难点,受速度误差影响,反演的Q模型会包含非常强的串扰噪声。针对该问题,提出了基于多目标函数的黏弹性全波形反演理论与方法,首先通过旅行时反演速度结构,再通过中心频率目标函数反演Q模型,最终使用波形差目标函数同时反演速度和Q模型。由于中心频率主要受衰减影响,因此,可有效减弱速度误差对Q反演的影响。最后,通过数值模拟验证了算法可有效地反演速度和Q模型。     

Segmentation of well logs by maximum-likelihood estimation

A maximum-likelihood procedure for segmenting digital well-log data is presented. The method is based on a univariate state variable model in which an observed log is treated as a time-series consisting of two terms: a Gauss-Markov signal remaining constant over a segment, and an additive Gaussian, but not necessarily stationary, noise. The signal jumps by a random amount at a segment boundary. The inverse problem of log segmentation consists of detecting the segment boundaries from a given log. The problem is solved using a Bayesian approach in which the unknown parameters, the locations of segment boundaries and the jumps in the signal value, are estimated by maximizing the likelihood function for the observed data. An algorithm based on Kalman smoothing and single most likelihood replacement (SMLR) procedure is proposed. The performance of the method is illustrated with a case study comprising of multisuite log data from an exploratory well. The method is found to be rapid and robust. The resulting segments are found to be geologically consistent.     

基于平动加转动运动场的边坡稳定上限分析

基于塑性力学上限理论的边坡稳定安全系数上限解法是边坡稳定性分析的常用方法之一,其关键在于构造合适的几何容许运动场。基于摩尔-库仑屈服准则和相关流动法则,将滑动体进行条分,提出了一种同时考虑条块平动和转动的容许运动场及相应的稳定安全系数求解方法。该方法不仅具有适用性好、方法简单的特点,数值分析还表明,该方法能给出比基于纯平动运动场更小、非常接近Morgenstern-Price法的稳定安全系数计算结果。     

稳定有效的反Q滤波方法

反Q滤波是补偿大地吸收衰减有效方法之一,其稳定性和有效性是反Q滤波的前提条件.笔者研究了一种稳定的反Q滤波方法,并通过理论模型和实际数据与传统的增益限制反Q滤波方法进行了对比.结果表明:稳定反Q滤波更好地恢复了衰减的地震信号,并自动限制了对噪声的过渡放大.同时,还分析了噪声和增益限制因子G_(lim)对稳定反Q滤波的影响.     

基于L-BFGS算法和同时激发震源的频率多尺度全波形反演

全波形反演可以利用叠前地震波场的运动学和动力学信息重建地下速度结构,具有揭示复杂地质背景下构造与岩性细节信息的潜力。然而,庞大的计算量和存储空间需求,限制了全波形反演的发展。在频率多尺度全波形反演中将L BFGS数值优化算法与同时激发震源技术相结合的方法来改善这一现状。首先,对Marmousi模型进行了速度反演：在计算过程中明显发现对计算机内存的占用减少,最终反演结果与实际Marmousi模型的拟合误差为0.095 9,较小;采用10个频带单炮震源正演384炮所需时间约为32 640 s,而采用同时激发震源（384炮）正演一次所需时间仅约为700 s。然后,基于高速楔形体模型进行了抗噪能力研究：原始含噪地震记录信噪比为11.147 3 dB;对反演得到的速度模型进行正演,其地震记录信噪比为22.251 8 dB。最后,基于逆冲断层模型进行了反演速度扰动能力研究,反演得到的最终模型很清晰,与具有速度扰动特性的实际模型非常接近,拟合误差仅为0.036 0。数值模拟试验结果表明：此方法反演精度高,内存开销较小,能够显著提高计算效率,并且具有良好的抗噪能力,能够反演出具有速度扰动特性的介质。     

三峡库区滑坡台阶状位移趋势预测的警戒速度方法

对不同类型的35个滑坡进行统计分析,发现滑坡临滑前加速度和速度符合Voight模型的幂函数关系。由于无法准确判断三峡库区具台阶状位移特征的滑坡何时处于最后加速失稳阶段,故不能直接应用该模型进行预报。根据台阶状位移特征的滑坡变形特征,本文采用了基于Voight模型的警戒速度方法。该方法是基于Voight模型采用非线性回归分析求得模型参数,按不同风险级别要求求得紧急状态、警戒状态、提前警戒状态的速度阀值,并与实际监测的速度对比去预报滑坡所处的危险等级。采用警戒速度方法对白水河滑坡和新滩滑坡进行了分析,发现预测结果与实际较为接近,预测效果较好。     

Sequential Gaussian simulation for geosystems modeling: A machine learning approach

Sequential Gaussian Simulation(SGSIM)as a stochastic method has been developed to avoid the smoothing effect produced in deterministic methods by generating various stochastic realizations.One of the main issues of this technique is,however,an intensive computation related to the inverse operation in solving the Kriging system,which significantly limits its application when several realizations need to be produced for uncertainty quantification.In this paper,a physics-informed machine learning(PIML)model is proposed to improve the computational efficiency of the SGSIM.To this end,only a small amount of data produced by SGSIM are used as the training dataset based on which the model can discover the spatial correlations between available data and unsampled points.To achieve this,the governing equations of the SGSIM algorithm are incorporated into our proposed network.The quality of realizations produced by the PIML model is compared for both 2D and 3D cases,visually and quantitatively.Furthermore,computational performance is evaluated on different grid sizes.Our results demonstrate that the proposed PIML model can reduce the computational time of SGSIM by several orders of magnitude while similar results can be produced in a matter of seconds.     

Movements,failure and climatic control of the Veslemannen rockslide,Western Norway

On September 5, 2019, the Veslemannen unstable rock slope (54,000 m³) in Romsdalen, Western Norway, failed catastrophically after 5 years of continuous monitoring. During this period, the rock slope weakened while the precursor movements increased progressively, in particular from 2017. Measured displacement prior to the failure was around 19 m in the upper parts of the instability and 4–5 m in the toe area. The pre-failure movements were usually associated with precipitation events, where peak velocities occurred 2–12 h after maximum precipitation. This indicates that the pore-water pressure in the sliding zones had a large influence on the slope stability. The sensitivity to rainfall increased greatly from spring to autumn suggesting a thermal control on the pore-water pressure. Transient modelling of temperatures suggests near permafrost conditions, and deep seasonal frost was certainly present. We propose that a frozen surface layer prevented water percolation to the sliding zone during spring snowmelt and early summer rainfalls. A transition from possible permafrost to a seasonal frost setting of the landslide body after 2000 was modelled, which may have affected the slope stability. Repeated rapid accelerations during late summers and autumns caused a total of 16 events of the red (high) hazard level and evacuation of the hazard zone. Threshold values for velocity were used in the risk management when increasing or decreasing hazard levels. The inverse velocity method was initially of little value. However, in the final phase before the failure, the inverse velocity method was useful for forecasting the time of failure. Risk communication was important for maintaining public trust in early-warning systems, and especially critical is the communication of the difference between issuing the red hazard level and predicting a landslide.

     

地裂缝三维地震勘查资料数字处理技术探讨

苏锡常地区地裂缝地质灾害发生地区,大都具备地震勘探条件,一是地裂缝在水平方向上的延伸具有方向性,二是在垂向上具有可分辨的拓展深度。在遭受地裂缝破坏的地区,其地震时间剖面将会出现反射波同相轴错断、反射波能量转换、反射层产状变化和反射波增减等特征。根据该区资料试处理效果及有关处理参数的测试原则,确定了地裂缝三维地震勘查资料处理流程:在预处理阶段,着重做好道编辑、静校正和反褶积;在部分时间偏移(DMO)叠加阶段,重点做好速度分析,剩余静校正;在叠加之后偏移之前做好随机去噪及偏移方法的测试;在偏移之后作好反Q滤波,信号增强等处理。另外还可进行波阻抗、振幅层拉平等特殊处理及三瞬处理。通过上述各项资料处理工作,为探测研究地裂缝分布规律提供了可靠的解释依据。     

Upper bound limit analysis of cohesive soils using mesh-free method

A mesh-free based limit analysis approach is proposed, to determine the upper bound solutions for the collapse loads associated with cohesive soils, under plane strain conditions. In the presented technique, the geometry of problem is just simulated by nodes and there is no need of mesh in the traditional sense. The process of finding an upper bound solution consists of combining limit analysis theory and a mesh-free numerical technique as a discretisation tool. To satisfy the required conditions for the admissibility of the discretised velocity field at the entire problem domain, a strain rate smoothing technique has been adopted. The outcome of proposed combination is a nonlinear optimisation problem which is solved by a direct iterative technique. The solution found by an iterative algorithm is an upper bound for limit load of the stability problem. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by solving different example problems in the soil mechanics engineering field, at the end of the paper.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

Uncertainty quantification of two-phase flow problems via measure theory and the generalized multiscale finite element method

The problem of multiphase phase flow in heterogeneous subsurface porous media is one involving many uncertainties. In particular, the permeability of the medium is an important aspect of the model that is inherently uncertain. Properly quantifying these uncertainties is essential in order to make reliable probabilistic-based predictions and future decisions. In this work, a measure-theoretic framework is employed to quantify uncertainties in a two-phase subsurface flow model in high-contrast media. Given uncertain saturation data from observation wells, the stochastic inverse problem is solved numerically in order to obtain a probability measure on the space of unknown permeability parameters characterizing the two-phase flow. As solving the stochastic inverse problem requires a number of forward model solves, we also incorporate the use of a conservative version of the generalized multiscale finite element method for added efficiency. The parameter-space probability measure is used in order to make predictions of saturation values where measurements are not available, and to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in the context of fine and coarse model solves. A number of numerical examples are offered to illustrate the measure-theoretic methodology for solving the stochastic inverse problem using both fine and coarse solution schemes.