未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展

概述未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究的主要进展。首先,对用于开展气候变化预估研究的不同复杂程度的气候系统及地球系统模式及其模拟能力进行了简要的介绍,指出虽然目前气候系统模式在很多方面存在着较大的不确定性,但大体说来可提供当前气候状况的可信模拟结果;进而介绍了IPCC不同的排放情景,以及不同排放情景下全球与东亚区域气候变化预估的主要结果。研究表明,尽管不同模式对不同情景下未来气候变化预估的结果存有差异,但对未来50～100年全球气候变化的模拟大体一致,即全球将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加。在此基础上,概述了全球气候模式模拟结果的区域化技术,并重点介绍了降尺度方法的分类与应用。同时对气候变化预估的不确定性进行了讨论。最后,对气候变化预估的研究前景进行了展望,并讨论了未来我国气候变化预估研究的重点发展方向。     

深部碳循环的环境气候效应SCIEI北大核心CSCD

地球表层温度主要由接收的太阳辐射能量及大气温室气体的保温能力共同控制。CO_(2)等温室气体通过对大气温度的调节影响着全球环境气候变化,工业革命以来全球CO_(2)排放量的增加被认为是全球变暖的重要原因,地质历史时期大气CO_(2)浓度的波动与温室和冰室气候的交替出现相对应。地球超过90%的碳赋存于深部,因此地球深部过程的些许波动便会影响到地表碳含量,进而深刻影响着地球的环境气候变化。以往的研究注重地表碳循环对环境气候的影响,对深部碳的贡献考虑不足。最近十余年全球开展了详细的深部碳循环研究,基于已经取得的重要成果,本文从大火成岩省、裂谷和俯冲带的视角对深部碳循环驱动的环境气候效应进行了系统回顾。认为未来的研究需要对地球深部碳循环通量和碳同位素组成进行更精确的定量,这是我们认识深部碳循环对地表环境气候影响的基础;除了碳元素本身我们还需要关注其他挥发性元素和有害金属元素的综合效应;俯冲带作为全球壳-幔相互作用和物质交换循环最重要的场所,应该是进行深部碳循环观察和环境气候效应研究的重点。     

Climate: Is the past the key to the future?

 The climate of the Holocene is not well suited to be the baseline for the climate of the planet. It is an interglacial, a state typical of only 10% of the past few million years. It is a time of relative sea-level stability after a rapid 130-m rise from the lowstand during the last glacial maximum. Physical geologic processes are operating at unusual rates and much of the geochemical system is not in a steady state. During most of the Phanerozoic there have been no continental ice sheets on the earth, and the planet’s meridional temperature gradient has been much less than it is presently. Major factors influencing climate are insolation, greenhouse gases, paleogeography, and vegetation; the first two are discussed in this paper. Changes in the earth’s orbital parameters affect the amount of radiation received from the sun at different latitudes over the course of the year. During the last climate cycle, the waxing and waning of the northern hemisphere continental ice sheets closely followed the changes in summer insolation at the latitude of the northern hemisphere polar circle. The overall intensity of insolation in the northern hemisphere is governed by the precession of the earth’s axis of rotation, and the precession and ellipticity of the earth’s orbit. At the polar circle a meridional minimum of summer insolation becomes alternately more and less pronounced as the obliquity of the earth’s axis of rotation changes. Feedback processes amplify the insolation signal. Greenhouse gases (H₂O, CO₂, CH₄, CFCs) modulate the insolation-driven climate. The atmospheric content of CO₂ during the last glacial maximum was approximately 30% less than during the present interglacial. A variety of possible causes for this change have been postulated. The present burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement manufacture since the beginning of the industrial revolution have added CO₂ to the atmosphere when its content due to glacial-interglacial variation was already at a maximum. Anthropogenic activity has increased the CO₂ content of the atmosphere to 130% of its previous Holocene level, probably higher than at any time during the past few million years. During the Late Cretaceous the atmospheric CO₂ content was probably about four times that of the present, the level to which it may rise at the end of the next century. The results of a Campanian (80 Ma) climate simulation suggest that the positive feedback between CO₂ and another important greenhouse gas, H₂O, raised the earth’s temperature to a level where latent heat transport became much more significant than it is presently, and operated efficiently at all latitudes. Atmospheric high- and low-pressure systems were as much the result of variations in the vapor content of the air as of temperature differences. In our present state of knowledge, future climate change is unpredictable because by adding CO₂ to the atmosphere we are forcing the climate toward a “greenhouse” mode when it is accustomed to moving between the glacial–interglacial “icehouse” states that reflect the waxing and waning of ice sheets. At the same time we are replacing freely transpiring C3 plants with water-conserving C4 plants, producing a global vegetation complex that has no past analog. The past climates of the earth cannot be used as a direct guide to what may occur in the future. To understand what may happen in the future we must learn about the first principles of physics and chemistry related to the earth’s system. The fundamental mechanisms of the climate system are best explored in simulations of the earth’s ancient extreme climates. Received: 7 November 1996/Accepted: 23 January 1997     

Milestones in the evolution of the atmosphere with reference to climate change

The history of life on Earth is critically dependent on the carbon, sulfur and oxygen cycles of the lithosphere – hydrosphere – atmosphere – biosphere system. An Archean oxygen-poor greenhouse atmosphere developed through: (i) accumulation of CO₂ and CH₄ from episodic injections of CO₂ from volcanic activity, volatilised crust impacted by asteroids and comets, metamorphic devolatilisation processes and release of methane from sediments; and (ii) little CO₂ weathering-capture due to both high temperatures of the hydrosphere (low CO₂ solubility) and a low ratio of exposed continents to oceans. In the wake of the Sturtian glaciation, enrichment in oxygen and appearance of multicellular eukaryotes heralded the onset of the Phanerozoic where greenhouse conditions were interrupted by periods of strong CO₂-sequestration through intensified capture of CO₂ by marine plants, onset of land plants and burial of carbonaceous shale and coal (Late Ordovician; Carboniferous – Permian; Late Jurassic; Late Tertiary – Quaternary). The progression from Late Mesozoic and Early Tertiary greenhouse conditions to Late Tertiary – Quaternary ice ages was related to the sequestration of CO₂ by rapid weathering of the emerging Alpine and Himalayan mountain chains. A number of peak warming and sea-level-rise events include the Late Oligocene, mid-Miocene, mid-Pliocene and Pleistocene glacial terminations. The Late Tertiary – Quaternary ice ages were dominated by cyclic orbital-forcing-triggered terminations which involved CO₂-feedback effects from warming seas and the biosphere and albedo flips due to ice-sheet melting. Since ca AD 1750 human emissions were ～305 Gt of carbon, as compared with ～750 Gt C in the atmosphere. The emissions constitute ～12% of the terrestrial biosphere and ～10% of the known global fossil fuel reserve of ～4000 Gt C, whose combustion would compare to the ～ 4600 Gt C released to the atmosphere during the K – T impact event 65 million years ago, with associated ～65% mass extinction of species. The current growth rate of atmospheric greenhouse gases and global mean temperatures exceed those of Pleistocene glacial terminations by one to two orders of magnitude. The relationship between temperatures and sea-levels for the last few million years project future sea-level rises toward time-averaged values of at least 5 m per 1°C. The instability of ice sheets suggested by the Dansgaard – Oeschinger glacial cycles during 50 – 20 ka, observed ice melt lag effects of glacial terminations, spring ice collapse dynamics and the doubling per-decade of Greenland and west Antarctic ice melt suggest that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's projected sea-level rises (<59 cm) for the 21st century may be exceeded. The biological and philosophical rationale underlying climate change and mass extinction perpetrated by an intelligent carbon-emitting mammal species may never be known.     

末次冰盛期气候反馈特征研究

末次冰盛期(Last Glacial Maximum,简称LGM)被认为是较适合用来估算气候系统响应对辐射强迫变化的古气候区间之一.理解LGM时期气候反馈过程有助于进一步限定气候敏感度的范围.本研究利用辐射核方法和参加第三次古气候模式比较计划(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Ⅲ,简称PMIP3)的8个耦合模式资料,对比研究了LGM时期与abrupt4xCO2(4CO2)情景下的气候反馈特征.结果表明:全球平均而言,不同情景下温度反馈、水汽反馈和反照率反馈的强度存在显著差异,然而这一关系并不存在于云反馈过程中,这可能与情景间/模式间云反馈的不确定性相联系;在不同情景下,不同反馈过程强度也存在明显空间差异.温度反馈过程的差异主要来源于LGM时期大陆冰盖强迫引起的温度变化的高度空间不均一性和海陆分布改变引起的热带对流活动的变化;水汽反馈变化可能与海陆分布变化引起的沃克环流变化以及全球降温相联系;大陆冰盖和海冰存在是导致LGM时期地表反照率反馈增加的主要原因;而云反馈的差异可能与低云云量和模式间不确定性有关.LGM时期单独强迫数值试验将有助于进一步厘清不同气候状态下气候反馈过程差异的原因.     

中国东北地区显生宙岩浆作用和洋-陆格局及其与气候演变的关系SCIEI北大核心CSCD

显生宙期间,地球经历了温室-冰室气候的周期性交替变化。在数百万年的时间尺度,这种古气候的转变被认为是碳源和碳汇过程耦合的结果,但一直以来关于两者贡献程度的认识尚不明确。通过全球统计分析,不同学者提出大陆弧火山脱气模型和热带弧-陆碰撞模型用于解释整个显生宙古气候的演变,分别强调了碳源和碳汇的一级控制作用。为了检验上述模型,更好地理解古气候的转变机制和演化细节,本文系统总结了中国东北地区显生宙岩浆作用-矽卡岩型矿床的时空展布和构造背景,以及弧-陆碰撞的时代、规模和古地理位置,通过数据统计和作图对比,发现东北地区岩浆作用-矽卡岩成矿峰期、弧-陆碰撞缝合带的时空迁移与大气圈CO_(2)浓度和大陆冰川沉积有很好的对应关系,暗示东北显生宙构造-岩浆过程和古气候演变的内在联系。综合东北地区及全球的研究进展,本文提出如下倾向性认识:1)洋-陆俯冲过程中火山-变质脱气的强度决定了CO_(2)排放量,而热带区域弧-陆碰撞缝合带的规模决定了全球硅酸盐风化速率和CO_(2)吸收量,在地质演化过程中两者紧密联动,共同控制了显生宙古气候的演变;2)大陆弧岩浆作用的全球爆发不一定能造成温室气候的出现,如果缺乏充分矽卡岩变质脱碳反应,大陆弧CO_(2)排放通量与岛弧、大洋中脊和板内并无显著区别;3)SO_(2)属于短期效应气体,理论和实例研究均暗示爆发式火山作用难以诱发大冰期的形成,火山作用之于长期气候应该仍是促使地球升温而非变冷。     

Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.     

Global warming and long-term climatic changes: a progress report

The authors believe that recent global warming of Earth’s atmosphere is not due to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission but rather to long-term global factors. The human contribution to the CO₂ content in the atmosphere and the increase in temperature is negligible in comparison with other sources of carbon dioxide emission. Discussed in this paper are sources, avenues of migration, and the amounts of naturally produced carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) and long-term changes in the Earth’s climate, which are necessary for understanding the causes of current temperature trends.     

Reducing global warming — The role of rice

Activities to provide energy for an expanding population are increasingly disrupting and changing the concentration of atmospheric gases that increase global temperature. Increased CO₂ and temperature have a clear effect on growth and production of rice as they are key factors in photosynthesis. Rice yields could be increased with increased levels of CO₂, however, the rise of CO₂ may be accompanied by an increase in global temperature. The effect of doubling CO₂ levels on rice production was predicted using rice crop models. They showed different effects of climate change in different countries. A simulation of the Southeast Asian region indicated that a doubling of CO₂ increases yield, whereas an increase in temperature decreases yield.Enhanced UV-B radiation resulting for stratographic ozone depletion has been demonstrated to significantly reduce plant height, leaf area and dry weight of two rice cultivars under glasshouse conditions. Data are still insufficient, however, for conclusive results on the effect of UV-B radiation on rice growth under field conditions.Rice production itself has a significant effect on global warming and atmospheric chemistry through methane emission from flooded ricefields. Water regime, soil properties and the rice plant are major factors controlling the flux of methane in ricefields. Global and regional estimates of methane emission rates are still highly uncertain and tentative. Integration of mechanistic modeling of methane fluxes with geographic information systems of factors controlling these processes are required to improve estimates and predictions.     

Global temperature changes: relative importance of greenhouse constituents of the atmosphere as calculated with a 1-d radiative-convective model

Most modelling endeavours concerning the CO₂-climate problem address only the question of the climatic response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, while the amounts of other atmospheric gases remain fixed. But associated changes, either climatologically or anthropogenically induced, of minor atmospheric constituents can also be of significance in producing a substantial global warming. We have analysed the climatic response to changes in a number of atmospheric trace gases as they may enhance or counteract CO₂-induced warming if their abundance should change. A comparison of the increase in equilibrium global-mean surface temperature due to plausible changes in the concentration of several trace gases in the atmosphere based on our calculations with a one-dimensional radiative-convective model is presented in this paper. Our results indicate that roughly 35% of global surface warming could be due to changes in trace gases other than CO₂ and water vapour. The possible climatic consequences of the ongoing anthropogenic changes in the minor constituents of the atmosphere are also discussed.     

Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect

Conventional theory of global warming states that heating of atmosphere occurs as a result of accumulation of CO₂ and CH₄ in atmosphere. The writers show that rising concentration of CO₂ should result in the cooling of climate. The methane accumulation has no essential effect on the Earth’s climate. Even significant releases of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime and the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Moreover, CO₂ concentration increase in the atmosphere results in rising agricultural productivity and improves the conditions for reforestation. Thus, accumulation of small additional amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic activities has practically no effect on the Earth’s climate.     

Earth dynamics and climate changes

The evolution of the Earth's climate over geological time is now relatively well known. Conversely, the causes and feedback mechanisms involved in these climatic changes are still not well determined. At geological timescales, two factors play a prevailing role: plate tectonics and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Their climatic effects will be examined using palaeoclimatic indicators as well as results of climate models. I focus primarily on the influence of continental drift on warm and cold climatic episodes. The consequences of peculiar land sea distributions (amalgamation/dispersal of continental blocks) are discussed. Plate tectonics also drive sea level changes as well as mountain uplift. Marine transgressions during the Mid-Cretaceous favoured warmth within the interiors of continents, although their effect could be very different according to the season. Mountain uplift is also an important factor, which is able to alter climate at large spatial scales. Experiments relative to climatic sensitivity to the elevation of the Appalachians during the Late Permian are discussed. To affect the whole Earth, the chemical composition of the atmosphere appears to be a more efficient forcing factor. The carbon dioxide driven by the long-term carbon cycle has influenced the global climate. Geochemical modelling simulates more or less accurately the long-term evolution of pCO₂, which corresponds roughly to the icehouse/greenhouse climatic oscillations. However, the uncertainties on pCO₂ are still important because different parameters involved in the long-term carbon cycle (degassing rate, chemical weathering of silicates, burial of organic matter) are not well constrained throughout the past. The chemical composition of the atmosphere is also altered by the emissions of modern volcanic eruptions leading to weak global cooling. The influence of large flood basalt provinces on climate is not yet known well enough; this volcanism may have released huge amounts of SO₂ as well as CO₂. At last, the chemical composition of the atmosphere may have been altered by the release of methane in response to the dissociation of gas hydrates. This scenario has been proposed to explain the abrupt warming during the Late Palaeocene.     

末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因检测

在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO₂浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO₂浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO₂浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。     

Contribution of carbonate rock weathering to the atmospheric CO2 sink

To accurately predict future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, which is crucial in predicting global climate change, the sources and sinks of the atmospheric CO₂ and their change over time must be determined. In this paper, some typical cases are examined using published and unpublished data. Firstly, the sensitivity of carbonate rock weathering (including the effects by both dissolution and reprecipitation of carbonate) to the change of soil CO₂ and runoff will be discussed, and then the net amount of CO₂ removed from the atmosphere in the carbonate rock areas of mainland China and the world will be determined by the hydrochem-discharge and carbonate-rock-tablet methods, to obtain an estimate of the contribution of carbonate rock weathering to the atmospheric CO₂ sink. These contributions are about 0.018 billion metric tons of carbon/a and 0.11 billion metric tons of carbon/a for China and the world, respectively. Further, by the DBL (Diffusion Boundary Layer)-model calculation, the potential CO₂ sink by carbonate rock dissolution is estimated to be 0.41 billion metric tons of carbon/a for the world. Therefore, the potential CO₂ source by carbonate reprecipitation is 0.3 billion metric tons of carbon/a. Received: 12 May 1999 · Accepted: 16 August 1999     

Indian Monsoon Variability in a Global Warming Scenario

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) constituted by the World Meteorological Organisation provides expert guidance regarding scientific and technical aspects of the climate problem. Since 1990 IPCC has, at five-yearlyintervals, assessedand reported on the current state of knowledge and understanding of the climate issue. These reports have projected the behaviour of the Asian monsoon in the warming world. While the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1996) on climate model projections of Asian/Indian monsoon stated ``Most climate models produce more rainfall over South Asia in a warmer climate with increasing CO<sub>2</sub>', the recent IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report states ``It is likely that the warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will cause an increase in Asian summer monsoon variability and changes in monsoon strength.'Climate model projections(IPCC, 2001) also suggest more El Niño – like events in the tropical Pacific, increase in surface temperatures and decrease in the northern hemisphere snow cover. The Indian Monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon and its links with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, northern hemisphere surface temperature and Eurasian snow are well documented.In the light of the IPCC globalwarming projections on the Asian monsoon, the interannual and decadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall over India and its teleconnections have been examined by using observed data for the 131-year (1871–2001) period. While the interannual variations showyear-to-year random fluctuations, thedecadal variations reveal distinct alternate epochs of above and below normal rainfall. The epochs tend to last for about three decades. There is no clear evidence to suggest that the strength and variability of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) nor the epochal changes are affected by the global warming. Though the 1990s have been the warmest decade of the millennium(IPCC, 2001), the IMR variability has decreased drastically.Connections between the ENSO phenomenon, Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the Eurasian snow with IMR reveal that the correlations are not only weak but have changed signs in the early 1990s suggesting that the IMR has delinked not only with the Pacific but with the Northern Hemisphere/Eurasian continent also. The fact that temperature/snow relationships with IMR are weak further suggests that global warming need not be a cause for the recent ENSO-Monsoon weakening.Observed snow depth over theEurasian continent has been increasing, which could be a result of enhanced precipitation due to the global warming.     

试论全球气候变化与沙漠化的关系

本文通过全球气候变化对沙漠化的影响和沙漠化对沙区气候的反馈作用两方面,论述在气候变暖条件下,全球气候变化与沙漠化的关系,例如我国东部沙区降水增多,沙漠化逆转,西部沙区降水减少,沙漠化发展等原因。     

Quantifying 21st-century France climate change and related uncertainties

We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target.     

新生代构造抬升对地表化学风化和全球气候变化的影响

全球新生代构造抬升 ,特别是南亚喜马拉雅青藏高原和南美安底斯山脉和Altiplano高原在新生代的抬升对地表化学风化和全球气候变化产生了重要影响。它对地表化学风化的影响主要表现为引起造山带地区化学风化能力的提高 ;而它对全球气候变化的影响则主要表现在两个方面 ,一是直接的物理影响 ,即通过对大气和海洋循环的影响来对大气变化产生作用 ;一是通过对地表硅酸盐岩石的化学风化造成大气CO2 变化和全球温度的改变 ,从而对气候变化产生间接的生物化学效应。目前看来 ,新生代构造抬升造成的大气CO2 浓度减少是造成全球新生代气候变冷的重要原因。这已得到了近 10年来计算机大气环流模型 (GCMs)数值模拟和野外实验研究的支持 ,但在关于地表化学风化的主要控制因素 ,以及海洋Sr同位素是否可作为反映地表化学风化速率变化的替代性标志和气候变化反馈机制等方面 ,还需要作进一步研究。     

Long-term Trends in Vegetation Dynamics and Forest Fires in Brandenburg (Germany) Under a Changing Climate

The human influence on environmental processes has been described for many types of land use. One of the oldest tools to modify people’s environment is fire, which has dominated fire regimes in many regions over long time scales. This paper focuses on a German case study region, where 80–90% of the fires are human-caused. The objectives of this study are the application of the Regional Fire Model (Reg-FIRM), a process-based fire model that is incorporated into the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, to temperate forests under historic climate conditions and to explore ranges of potential impacts of future climate change on fire and vegetation dynamics. Simulation experiments are designed to simulate historic fire pattern and to explore influences of vegetation on fire. Simulated fire pattern reproduced the observed average fire conditions reasonably well although with a smaller amplitude. This leads to underestimation of extreme fire years as well as an overestimation of low fire years. Vegetation composition influenced fire spread conditions in the temperate forest and had little impact on fire ignition potentials, except when only broad-leaved deciduous forests were assumed. Fire is likely to change under climate change conditions. Simulated experiments were conducted to explore the effects of climate change and rising CO₂ concentration given the potential natural vegetation as the best-case for Brandenburg. Three GCM scenarios predicting different future climatic changes were applied, and resulted in quantitatively different future fire patterns. Depending on future precipitation pattern and the influence of the CO₂ effect on canopy conductance and thus litter moisture, fire was predicted to either decrease or slightly increase in Brandenburg forests, but the burnt area would not exceed current, extreme fire years. Generally, fire changes had no implication for vegetation composition in Brandenburg, but reduced vegetation carbon gain after 2050. In the HadCM3 application, simulated increase in grass cover due to a large burnt area after 2075 accelerated fire spread conditions, thus still increasing the burnt area, while climatic fire danger and number of fires already began to decline. These interactions underline the importance to consider the full range of fire processes and interactions with vegetation dynamics in a simulation model.     

全球早白垩世大规模岩浆活动、铁矿床形成及与气候变化的可能耦合关系

地球系统科学是当今地球科学的研究前缘,早白垩时期全球气候经历了巨大的变化,前人为此做了大量的研究工作,但就铁矿形成与环境变化方面的研究还鲜见人提及。本文针对早白垩世大规模岩浆活动、铁矿成因、温室气体的释放及对气候变化的可能耦合关系做探索性的研究工作。本文主要通过大数据统计、整理分析、制图对比等科学手段,论证早白垩世各重要地质事件之间的耦合关系。发现早白垩世的大规模岩浆活动和铁矿爆发巅峰期、陆相红层的出现有着非常吻合的时间一致性。推测早白垩世时期大规模岩浆活动以及铁矿床的形成释放大量CO_2温室气体。大气中CO_2温室气体含量急剧增加导致大气环境温度升高,Fe~(2+)变成Fe~(3+)导致了大陆红层的形成;大气中CO_2温室气体含量急剧增加也导致了大气中氧气含量变低,致使后生生物为了适应这种极端环境气候个体趋向于小型化。因此,铁矿床爆发式成矿作用间接地导致了当时气候环境变化和生物演化方向。在当今面临的全球变暖的大环境下,我们更要加深了解和我们当代很相似的晚中生代时期,以便更加主动的应对以后的气候环境变化和生物发展。