A GIS-based modeling of snow accumulation and melt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an efficient method for snowmelt runoff forecast in large basins. We use short-range precipitation forecasts of mesoscale atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combining them with ground-based and satellite observations for modeling snow accumulation and snowmelt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin (184,319 km²). The method is tested during three winter seasons (2012–2015). The MODIS-based vegetation map and leaf area index data are used to calculate the snowmelt intensity and snow evaporation in the studied basin. The GIS-based snow accumulation and snowmelt modeling provides a reliable and highly detailed spatial distribution for snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered areas (SCA). The modelling results are validated by comparing actual and estimated SWE and SCA data. The actual SCA results are derived from MODIS satellite data. The algorithm for assessing the SCA by MODIS data (ATBD-MOD 10) has been adapted to a forest zone. In general, the proposed method provides satisfactory results for maximum SWE calculations. The calculation accuracy is slightly degraded during snowmelt periods. The SCA data is simulated with a higher reliability than the SWE data. The differences between the simulated and actual SWE may be explained by the overestimation of the WRF-simulated total precipitation and the unrepresentativeness of the SWE measurements (snow survey).     

2000-2012年祁连山植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的相关性

研究祁连山地区植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的响应关系对这一地区土地利用总体特征以及对区域及全球气候和环境变化都将产生深远的意义。利用2000-2012年美国国家航空航天局提供的MODIS NDVI数据并结合相应的气候资料,通过对逐像元信息的提取和分析,运用均值法、斜率分析法、相关分析法,研究了2000-2012年不同季节祁连山植被覆盖的时空变化及其与气候因子的相关性。结果表明:13 a来祁连山植被覆盖整体上呈增加趋势,其中春季植被改善最为明显,秋季次之;植被覆盖变化在不同季节都存在明显的空间差异;不同季节植被与气温、降水的时滞效应不尽相同;祁连山春季大部分地区NDVI与气温呈显著正相关,夏季NDVI与降水呈显著正相关,秋、冬季NDVI与降水、气温的相关性不明显。     

藏西南高原植被覆盖时空变化及其与气候因素和人类活动的关系

研究基于MODIS-NDVI数据和气象数据,利用趋势分析、相关分析及残差分析等方法,分析了2000―2020年藏西南高原植被NDVI在不同时段的时空变化特征及气候因素和人类活动对植被NDVI的影响,结果表明：近20 a来藏西南高原植被NDVI呈增加趋势,不同时段植被NDVI增长速率存在显著差异,主要表现为秋季>生长季>夏季>全年>春季>冬季;不同时段植被NDVI的分布格局虽存在差异,但高原东部植被覆盖度明显高于西部地区;高原大部分区域植被状态基本稳定,局部明显改善,部分区域有所退化;年际尺度上,气温和降水的增加导致植被NDVI升高,季节尺度上,春季、秋季和冬季气温升高导致植被NDVI升高,降水的增加导致植被NDVI下降,夏季和生长季气温升高导致植被NDVI下降,降水升高导致植被NDVI增加;人类活动对高原大部分区域呈正面影响,局部地区呈负面影响,集中分布在半农半牧和纯牧业县区。     

中国比辐射率空间分布特征分析

使用2003-2013年MOD/MYD11C3地表比辐射率光谱数据、MOD/MYD13C2植被指数光谱数据,合成全国各月地表比辐射率、NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)。基于DEM数据分析比辐射率与NDVI随海拔、坡向的变化规律。结果表明:(1)比辐射率低值段(0.960~0.970)主要分布在我国西北荒漠地区,面积比例全年变化不显著,代表了干燥裸土下低比辐射率的特征;中值段(0.970~0.975)分布于我国大部分植被覆盖地区,面积比例夏高冬低,代表植被覆盖下混合像元的中比辐射率特征;高值段(0.975~0.980)位于我国部分高海拔和高纬度地区,面积比例冬高夏低,代表冰雪与植被混合像元的高比辐射率特征。(2)比辐射率与NDVI随坡向变化呈明显的"双峰双谷"分布。东南坡、西坡为峰值,最大值位于东南坡;南坡、北坡为谷值,最小值位于北坡。两者变化一致性很高。受不同坡向太阳方位角下的地形敏感性与植被覆盖综合影响,比辐射率表现出随坡向的峰谷变化规律。(3)随海拔升高,比辐射率呈垂直地带性变化。存在3个下降区:250 m~1250 m、2500 m~3000 m和4750 m~6000 m;3个上升区:1250 m~2500 m、3000 m~4750 m和6000 m~6500 m。这与NDVI随海拔变化特征类似,反映垂直下垫面植被变化对比辐射率空间分布的影响。     

Effects of interannual variations in environmental conditions on seasonal range selection by Mongolian gazelles

To examine the effects of interannual variations in environmental conditions on the seasonal range selection and movement pattern of Mongolian gazelles Procapra gutturosa, we compared the summer and winter ranges of satellite tracked gazelles among 3 years, and we analyzed the environmental conditions in the gazelles' seasonal ranges by using a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The movement pattern of the tracked Mongolian gazelles was not regular migration between specific seasonal ranges. The locations of the summer ranges in 2003 and 2004 were similar for all gazelles, but in 2005, when the NDVI values were lower, the animals ranged about 30–70 km farther north, suggesting that the gazelles used areas of similar vegetation availability with former 2 years. The winter ranges were widely separated among years; the longest distance between winter ranges of the same individual in different years was about 340 km. During winter, the NDVI values of the winter ranges of tracked gazelles were almost always higher than or not significantly different from the mean of the 3-year range. Conservation strategies to allow access to wide ranges containing suitable areas in each year for gazelles, which location is changing interannually, are important.     

1982-2013年青藏高原植被物候变化及气象因素影响

根据NDVI3g数据,本文定义了18种植被物候指标研究植被物候变化情况。根据1:100万植被区划,把青藏高原划分为8个植被区分。对物候变化比较显著的区域,采用最高温度、最低温度、平均温度、降水、太阳辐射数据,运用偏最小二乘法回归（PLS）研究物候变化的气候成因。结果表明：① 青藏高原生长季初期物候指标,转折发生在1997-2000年,转折前初期物候指标平均提前2~3 d/10a;青藏高原末期物候指标转折发生在2004-2007年左右,生长季长度物候指标突变发生在2005年左右,转折前末期物候指标平均延迟1~2 d/10a、生长季长度平均延长1~2 d/10a;转折之后生长季初期物候指标推迟趋势的显著性水平仅为0.1,生长季末期物候指标、生长季长度指标趋势不显著。② 高寒草甸与高寒灌木草甸是青藏高原物候变化最剧烈的植被分区。高寒草甸区生长季长度的延长主要是由生长季初期物候指标提前导致的。高寒灌木草甸区生长季长度的延长主要是由于初期物候指标的提前,以及末期物候指标的推迟共同作用导致的。③ 采用PLS进一步分析气象因素对高寒草甸与高寒灌木草甸物候剧烈变化的影响。表明,温度对物候的影响占主导地位,两植被分区均显示上年秋季、冬初温度对生长季初期物候具有正的影响,该时段温度一方面会导致上年末期物候指标推迟,间接推迟生长季开始时间;另一方面高温不利用冬季休眠。除夏季外,其余月份最小温度对植被物候的影响与平均温度、最高温度的影响类似。降水对植被物候的影响不同月份波动较大,上年秋冬季节降水对初期物候指标具有负的影响,春初降水对初期物候指标具有正的影响。8月份限制植被生长季的主要因素是降水,此时降水与末期物候指标模型系数为正。太阳辐射对植被物候的影响主要在夏季与秋初。PLS方法在物候变化研究中具有较好的效果,本文研究结果将会对植被物候模型改进,提供有力的科学依据。     

The importance of winter in annual ecosystem respiration in the High Arctic: effects of snow depth in two vegetation types

Winter respiration in snow-covered ecosystems strongly influences annual carbon cycling, underlining the importance of processes related to the timing and quantity of snow. Fences were used to increase snow depth from 30 to 150 cm, and impacts on respiration were investigated in heath and mesic meadow, two common vegetation types in Svalbard. We manually measured ecosystem respiration from July 2007 to July 2008 at a temporal resolution greater than previously achieved in the High Arctic (campaigns: summer, eight; autumn, six; winter, 17; spring, nine). Moisture contents of unfrozen soil and soil temperatures throughout the year were also recorded. The increased snow depth resulted in significantly higher winter soil temperatures and increased ecosystem respiration. A temperature–efflux model explained most of the variation of observed effluxes: meadows, 94 (controls) and 93% (fences); heaths, 84 and 77%, respectively. Snow fences increased the total non-growing season efflux from 70 to 92 (heaths) and from 68 to 125 g CO₂-C m⁻² (meadows). The non-growing season contributed to 56 (heaths) and 42% (meadows) of the total annual carbon respired. This proportion increased with deeper snow to 64% in both vegetation types. Summer respiration rates were unaffected by snow fences, but the total growing season respiration was lower behind fences because of the considerably delayed snowmelt. Meadows had higher summer respiration rates than heaths. In addition, non-steady state CO₂ effluxes were measured as bursts lasting several days during spring soil thawing, and when ice layers were broken to carry out winter efflux measurements.     

Seasonal and inter-annual relationships between vegetation and climate in central New Mexico, USA

Linear correlations between seasonal and inter-annual measures of meteorological variables and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are calculated at six nearby yet distinct vegetation communities in semi-arid New Mexico, USA Monsoon season (June–September) precipitation shows considerable positive correlation with NDVI values from the contemporaneous summer, following spring, and following summer. Non-monsoon precipitation (October–May), temperature, and wind display both positive and negative correlations with NDVI values. These meteorological variables influence NDVI variability at different seasons and time lags. Thus vegetation responds to short-term climate variability in complex ways and serves as a source of memory for the climate system.     

Effects of weather and snow conditions on reproduction and survival of semi-domesticated reindeer (R. t. tarandus)

In this work we investigated the effects of local weather and snow conditions on the reproduction and survival of semi-domesticated reindeer ( Rangifer t. tarandus ) from 1962 to 1987 in four separate study areas in northern Finland. Reindeer density had no negative effect on calf percentage in slaughter (October-January) in any area. The higher the number of very warm days or mean temperatures in summer, the lower was the calf percentage in all forested areas (Sodankylä, Muonio and Ivalo). In the Muonio area, calf percentage was also reduced by winters with abundant snow accumulation. In the open, mountainous Kevo area, calf percentage was reduced with a high number of warm days (mean T>0°C) during the previous December. However, if the previous May was warm in that area, it had an opposite effect. High reindeer densities seemed to increase mortality only in the Sodankylä area. Abundant snow accumulation during winter reduced the survival index of reindeer both in the Sodankylä and Ivalo areas. In the Muonio area, mortality of reindeer was increased with a high number of warm days in December. In the Kevo area, reindeer density or any climatic parameters could not explain yearly differences in mortality. This study indicated that permanent changes in climatic conditions could have different impacts in woodland as opposed to open, mountainous regions. In general, if global climatic change means weather instability in early winter and more snow, it also brings more difficulties for reindeer. However, if climate change means that snow melts earlier in the spring, some conditions could become more favourable for reindeer.     

1982~1999 年我国东部暖温带植被 生长季节的时空变化

利用1982~1996 年5 个站点的植物群落物候观测数据和物候累积频率拟合法, 划分各站逐年的植被物候季节, 并确定各季节初日对应的当地归一化差值植被指数(NDVI) 阈值。 在此基础上, 通过对物候站各年NDVI 曲线的年型聚类分析和区内所有像元逐年NDVI 曲线的空间聚类分析, 实现植被物候季节的时空外推估计, 从而得到我国暖温带落叶阔叶林地区1982~1999 年植被物候季节初日和生长季节长度的时空格局。结果表明, 多年平均的植被物 候季节初日和生长季节长度呈现出主要随纬度和海拔高度变化的空间格局。在这18 年中, 整 个区域的物候春季初日以提前为主, 且以华北平原提前的趋势最为显著;夏季、秋季和冬季 初日以推迟为主, 也以华北平原推迟的趋势比较显著;因此, 华北平原植被生长季节呈显著 延长的趋势。本文揭示的植被物候季节初日的趋势变化与华北地区各季节气温的趋势变化基本吻合;植被生长季节的趋势变化特征与欧洲单种植物物候生长季节, 以及欧亚大陆和我国温带遥感植被生长季节的趋势变化基本一致, 但植被生长季节初、终日期和长度的趋势值明显大于后者, 表明该地区植物物候对于气候变暖的响应更加敏感。     

太行山区遥感卫星反演降雨产品降尺度研究

高时空分辨率降雨数据的获取对陆地水循环研究至关重要。遥感卫星反演降水产品虽然能有效再现降雨的空间格局,但存在空间分辨率较低的问题。以植被指数NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)和海拔高度为自变量,通过构建太行山区GPM降水(Global Precipitation Measurement Mission)的时滞地理加权回归模型,得到了2014—2016年研究区1 km分辨率GPM降水数据。研究结果表明：利用植被指数和海拔高度构建的时滞地理加权回归模型能够有效地对太行山月尺度GPM降雨数据进行尺度下延,在提高GPM数据空间分辨率的同时保留了原始数据的观测精度。考虑NDVI的时滞性提高了地理加权回归模型的降尺度效果,相对于多元线性回归模型和不考虑NDVI时滞效应的地理加权回归模型,时滞地理加权回归模型的降尺度结果与站点实测数据的确定性系数更高,RMSE更低。冬季降雨与第二年春季植被NDVI的关系较为密切,虽然采用第二年春季的NDVI作为解释变量构建降尺度模型能有效地提高冬季降雨的降尺度效果,但基于植被指数和海拔高度构建的时滞地理加权回归模型更加适用于植被生长季GPM降雨数据的降尺度研究。     

基于MOD13Q1数据的宁夏生长季植被动态监测

宁夏自2000年后实施退耕还林以来,局部地区的生态环境得到明显改善,为探求近15来年宁夏地区植被的动态变化及其影响因子,本文以MOD13Q1为数据源,结合DEM数据、土地利用分类图,采用Sen+Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法和Hurst模型,分析了宁夏不同行政区、不同海拔、不同坡度、不同坡向及不同植被类型生长季NDVI的空间变化特征及未来变化趋势;并利用重心迁移模型和转移矩阵分析宁夏2000-2014年间植被覆盖的时空演变特征。结果表明：①从空间分布看,宁夏南部六盘山、北部贺兰山及引黄灌溉区植被长势较好,中部干旱地区植被长势较差;且植被NDVI与海拔高程和坡度呈显著正相关。②从植被覆盖的转移矩阵看,较高植被覆盖的面积占比从2000年的17.29%增长到2014年的31.55%,主要是由较低植被覆盖转化而来的。③从重心迁移方向看,中度植被覆盖和较高植被覆盖的重心迁移最为明显,分别向东北方向偏移了129.49 km和向东南方向偏移了89.49 km。④从变化趋势看,生长季植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势,明显改善的面积占总面积的59.63%,轻微改善区域占31.72%;林地和水田显著改善的面积分别占总面积的71.50%和70.80%;显著改善的面积比例随海拔高程和坡度的增加均先增加后减少,且南部各行政区植被改善的面积均高于北部。⑤从可持续性看,植被恢复的持续性较强,89.24%的植被NDVI呈现持续改善的趋势;南部地区的持续改善的面积大于北部地区。     

基于因子分析方法的中国植被NDVI与气候关系研究

利用1982~2000年NDVI数据和气象台站资料,对我国几种植被型组和气候的相关关系进行了研究。首先利用NDVI结合植被类型图将我国植被划分为9种植被型组;然后利用因子分析方法进行了气候指标的选择并采用相对湿度、平均最高温度和平均风速作为本研究的气候因子;最后对7种植被型组NDVI值同相应季节及其前三个季节的气候指标进行了相关分析。结果表明,利用因子分析方法选择的气候指标可以较好地进行植被气候关系分析;在我国温度条件比水分条件更明显地影响植被的生长,水分条件较其他气候因素对植被生长表现了更明显的滞后效应;而平均风速则对我国荒漠植被生长有较大的影响。     

珠峰农牧社区山地景观下的雪豹栖息地利用特征（英文）

雪豹(Panthera uncia)是青藏高原南缘喜马拉雅山地的顶级捕食者,其中段的珠峰国家级自然保护区是雪豹的重要栖息地之一。随着保护区内外几十年来快速的经济发展和人口增长,雪豹面临许多人为干扰和栖息环境改变所带来的压力。为了更好地了解该区域雪豹的栖息地利用情况,以及人类活动对雪豹栖息地利用的影响,我们采用景观生态学动态视角,基于多尺度和占域模型开展了本研究。首先,我们在面积 825 km²的样地系统布设 118 台红外相机开展野外调查。进而依据雪豹生态学特性和当地环境特征,选取若干自然环境与人为干扰因子,并利用各因子间的组合构建栖息地利用模型,基于红外相机数据,分别对雪豹栖息地利用进行了冬夏两个不同季节(共计 180 天)的比较研究。结果表明,冬夏两季的最佳模型分别是栖息地(HABITAT)模型和人为影响(ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE)模型(AICc_w≤2)。就模型总体表现而言,冬季优于夏季,表明夏季雪豹栖息地利用存在有未被探测到的变量的可能性;单变量模型表明雪豹在冬季倾向于利用较高崎岖度和更大尺度的栖息地(多尺度焦点...     

Saguaro (Carnegiea Gigantea) Densities and Reproduction Over the Northern Sonoran Desert

Casual observations suggest that saguaro populations are densest in southeastern Arizona, although data have not been collected and no study has been done to address this topic. In addition, the topic of reproductive density has similarly never been addressed. Saguaro reproductive output is directly related to the number of adult individuals and the number of branches in the area. Thirty saguaro populations over their U.S. range were sampled to consider two variables: population density and reproductive stem density. Stepwise regression using climate and vegetation (e.g., availability of nurse plants) to predict density yielded tree + Ambrosia cover and maximum July precipitation. Nurse cover, however, is also influenced by summer rain. The partial correlation results suggest that high saguaro densities are linked with high quality nurse cover (i.e., not Larrea tridentata) in addition to summer rainfall. Total cover and mean annual precipitation are the best predictors of reproductive stem density. Mean annual precipitation may be a good predictor of reproductive stem density, because population density is linked with summer rain while branching is linked with winter rain. The plots were also divided into climatic regions. One-way ANOVA shows that the northeast (high winter precipitation) and west (dry) have lower saguaro densities than the southeast (high summer precipitation), while the northeast and southeast both have very high reproductive stem densities relative to the west. The warmer west is less susceptible to periodic freezing mortality, while previous work has shown that the southeast generally regenerates more successfully. Thus in the colder northeast, which is also outside of the primary summer rain and best nurse plant belt, low density populations seem to be maintained only with high reproductive density.     

祁连山东延余脉——兴隆山树木径向生长记录的公元1845年来夏季NDVI变化

NDVI能够反映地表覆盖和生态环境变化。在祁连山东延余脉采集树轮样本,分析树木径向生长与植被NDVI的相关关系,并重建历史时期植被NDVI变化。结果表明：树木径向生长与夏季NDVI受到水热条件变化的显著影响,且树轮宽度与夏季NDVI显著正相关,采用简单线性回归方法建立二者的拟合方程,方差解释量达0.600（R²_adj=0.582,F=34.472,P<0.0001）;公元1845年以来,重建的NDVI序列显示植被覆盖相对较低时期有19世纪60年代,80年代初期,20世纪初期和20-30年代,其中20世纪20-30年代NDVI低值期与中国北方大范围旱灾一致;重建的NDVI与旱涝指数显著负相关,证实重建NDVI序列的可靠,且显示该区旱涝演化趋势;周期分析表明公元1845年以来,NDVI序列存在2-3年、5年左右、13年左右和15年左右的振荡。     

Temporal and spatial response of vegetation NDVI to temperature and precipitation in eastern China

Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year, spring, summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT–NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China. The results indicate that as a whole, the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China. Vegetation NDVI maximally responds to the variation of temperature with a lag of about 10 days, and it maximally responds to the variation of precipitation with a lag of about 30 days. The response of vegetation NDVI to temperature and precipitation is most pronounced in autumn, and has the longest lag in summer. Spatially, the maximum response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced in the northern and middle parts than in the southern part of eastern China. The maximum response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of precipitation is more pronounced in the northern part than in the middle and southern parts of eastern China. The response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature has longer lag in the northern and southern parts than in the middle part of eastern China. The response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of precipitation has the longest lag in the southern part, and the shortest lag in the northern part of eastern China. The response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in eastern China is mainly consistent with other results, but the lag time of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation has some differences with those results of the monsoon region of eastern China.     

陕西MODIS/NDVI的区域分布和季节变化

利用MODIS数据研究植被指数的时空变化特征,可以较详细地反映不同类型植被在其生长周期内的长势情况,以及各类植被生长状况在空间上的过渡和差异性。利用2004年全年的MODIS资料,采用NDVI多时相最大值合成法（MVC）,生成了一年的月合成NDVI数据集产品,分析表明：①陕西MODIS/NDVI年平均值为0.39,变化范围在-0.54～0.85之间。NDVI的年内频率分布只有在冬季（1月）呈现单峰型,其他季节均表现为双峰型。②冬季陕西NDVI的分布南北差异较小;春季延安以北和延安以南差异明显;夏季和秋季NDVI 值的分布体现了陕北北部长城沿线风沙区、黄土高原丘陵沟壑区稀疏植被、陕北南部子午岭和黄龙山林区森林植被、关中农田植被、秦巴山地森林植被和农田植被以及它们的地表差异特征。③不同植被类型的NDVI季节变化差别显著,这种NDVI时间序列曲线如实地反映了各种类型植被的生长规律,并能区分它们在生长规律上的细微差别,这又为植被区划、农作物种植面积的遥感监测提供了理论和实践基础。     

2000~2014年黑龙江流域（中国）植被覆盖时空变化及其对气候变化的响应

采用MODIS/NDVI数据,利用Theil-Sen Median 趋势分析、Mann-Kendall 以及Hurst指数方法分析2000~2014年黑龙江流域（中国）植被的时空变化特征、植被变化发展趋势及可持续性特征;应用相关分析法研究了气候变化对植被生长的影响。结果表明,2000~2014年黑龙江流域（中国）植被NDVI指数呈缓慢增加趋势,山区植被覆盖增加显著,东北部平原区植被覆盖持续退化,总体上植被覆盖持续改善能力较弱。植被NDVI对气候响应的季节差异显著,且不同类型植被对气候因子的响应不一致：春季植被NDVI主要受温度影响,夏季植被NDVI主要受降水量影响,秋季林地NDVI与温度正相关、草地NDVI与降雨量正相关。     

内蒙古半干旱区沙尘天气特征及其与地表特征的关系

利用2002-2010年朱日和气象站观测资料,结合同期归一化植被指数(NDVI),叶面积指数(LAI),植被净初级生产力(NPP)资料,分析了内蒙古半干旱区朱日和地区2002-2010年的沙尘天气特征。结果表明：朱日和地区临界起沙风速为9.4 m·s-1,2002-2010年沙尘天气频率和大于临界起沙风速频率呈波动变化,沙尘天气频率和大于临界起沙风速频率有很好相关性,超过18 m·s-1的强风极易导致沙尘天气的发生;定义标准化的沙尘天气频率（NfDO）为沙尘天气频率与大于临界起沙风速频率之比,当夏季降水量大于100 mm,夏季最大NDVI、最大LAI和最大NPP分别大于0.24、0.3 g·m-2·d-1和0.6 g·m-2·d-1（以碳计算）时,次年春季NfDO较低,沙尘天气不易发生;反之沙尘天气较易发生。对沙尘天气发生机制的分析发现,夏季有效的降水促进了植物生长,夏季降水量、最大NDVI、最大LAI和最大NPP增大,来年春天土壤不容易侵蚀,沙尘天气不易发生。