Comparison of three remotely sensed drought indices for assessing the impact of drought on winter wheat yield

ABSTRACT

Agricultural drought threatens food security. Numerous remote-sensing drought indices have been developed, but their different principles, assumptions and physical quantities make it necessary to compare their suitability for drought monitoring over large areas. Here, we analyzed the performance of three typical remote sensing-based drought indices for monitoring agricultural drought in two major agricultural production regions in Shaanxi and Henan provinces, northern China (predominantly rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, respectively): vegetation health index (VHI), temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) and drought severity index (DSI). We compared the agreement between these indices and the standardized precipitation index (SPI), soil moisture, winter wheat yield and National Meteorological Drought Monitoring (NMDM) maps. On average, DSI outperformed the other indices, with stronger correlations with SPI and soil moisture. DSI also corresponded better with soil moisture and NMDM maps. The jointing and grain-filling stages of winter wheat are more sensitive to water stress, indicating that winter wheat required more water during these stages. Moreover, the correlations between the drought indices and SPI, soil moisture, and winter wheat yield were generally stronger in Shaanxi province than in Henan province, suggesting that remote-sensing drought indices provide more accurate predictions of the impacts of drought in predominantly rain-fed agricultural areas.     

土壤水力侵蚀的遥感信息模型研究——以江西省为例

通过利用Terra/Aqua卫星上搭载的MODIS传感器计算获取的16d合成植被指数产品(MOD13A2),进一步按照最大值合成法计算月合成光谱植被指数,按照USLE模型月模式评价江西省2005年土壤侵蚀,并与传统的USLE模型年模式计算的结果进行了比较。     

冬小麦旱情遥感监测模型研究

本研究依据土壤水量平衡及能量平衡的原理,提出了一套利用遥感方法监测冬小麦干旱及建模的方法。首先,用热惯性方法建立试区土壤表观热惯量与土壤水分的关系,用其估算初始土壤含水量(W_0);再用NOAA-AVHRR数字图像和气象数据相结合的方法估算冬小麦地的蒸散(E_t);从而根据水量平衡方程获得某一时段(旬)的土壤含水量(W_t);最后,根据冬小麦的需水规律和土壤有效水含量构造干旱指数模型。试验表明,此模型反映了作物干旱的本质,能大范围有效地监测作物旱情。     

中国陆地生态系统脆弱带遥感模型

本研究通过对我国陆地生态系统8个典型样地的植被指数取样实验和图像计算结果发现，这8个样地植被指数随着水、热因子的季节变化，在时间和空间上具有一定的“绿波推移”和“景观更替”规律。在中国东部湿润的季风区（样地1－3），随着纬度的增高，其月平均植被指数与月平均气温有较大的相关。发现降水相对丰沛的地带，热量和光照条件的变化成为植被生长和变化的自然限制因子；而在中国北方森林－森林草原－典型昌原－荒漠草原－荒漠地带上，随着从东部（湿润地区）到西部（干旱地区）干湿条件的更替，月平均植被指数与降水多寡有较大的正相关关系。在8个样地上都呈现出共同的规律，即定向风的分布与植被指数的分布在时间和空间上具有逆相分布的“套合关系”。尤其在时间上有相逆套合关系，这正是中国北方沙尘暴和沙漠化加剧的自然原因。本研究定量地给出了我国陆地不同经纬度带生态系统脆弱季节和累积时间的分布。     

利用遥感数据分析青藏高原水热条件对叶面积指数的影响

利用遥感数据,以异于传统的点分析的方法,分析水热条件对植被的影响。以青藏高原为研究区域,利用2003年的遥感数据 进行分析,结果表明,在时间轴上,叶面积指数和温度、土壤水分、降雨存在着良好的相关性; 在空间分布上,叶面积指数和三 者的相关性在大部分区域是呈良好的正相关,在部分区域呈现了弱相关和负相关,且分析探讨了出现这种现象的原因。     

Understanding long-term (1982–2013) patterns and trends in winter wheat spring green-up date over the North China Plain

Monitoring the spring green-up date (GUD) has grown in importance for crop management and food security. However, most satellite-based GUD models are associated with a high degree of uncertainty when applied to croplands. In this study, we introduced an improved GUD algorithm to extract GUD data for 32 years (1982–2013) for the winter wheat croplands on the North China Plain (NCP), using the third-generation normalized difference vegetation index form Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g NDVI). The spatial and temporal variations in GUD with the effects of the pre-season climate and soil moisture conditions on GUD were comprehensively investigated. Our results showed that a higher correlation coefficient (r = 0.44, p < 0.01) and lower root mean square error (22 days) and bias (16 days) were observed in GUD from the improved algorithm relative to GUD from the MCD12Q2 phenology product. In spatial terms, GUD increased from the southwest (less than day of year (DOY) 60) to the northeast (more than DOY 90) of the NCP, which corresponded to spatial reductions in temperature and precipitation. GUD advanced in most (78%) of the winter wheat area on the NCP, with significant advances in 37.8% of the area (p < 0.05). GUD occurred later at high altitudes and in coastal areas than in inland areas. At the interannual scale, the average GUD advanced from DOY 76.9 in the 1980s (average 1982–1989) to DOY 73.2 in the 1990s (average 1991–1999), and to DOY 70.3 after 2000 (average 2000–2013), indicating an average advance of 1.8 days/decade (r = 0.35, p < 0.05). Although GUD is mainly controlled by the pre-season temperature, our findings underline that the effect of the pre-season soil moisture on GUD should also be considered. The improved GUD algorithm and satellite-based long-term GUD data are helpful for improving the representation of GUD in terrestrial ecosystem models and enhancing crop management efficiency.     

利用ASAR图像监测土壤含水量和小麦覆盖度

以高级合成孔径雷达（ASAR）影像数据和地面实测数据为基础，分析了裸土、低覆盖（覆盖度为0．2左右）冬小麦麦地的后向散射与土壤含水量、地表粗糙度及小麦覆盖度之间的关系，探讨了裸土和冬小麦麦地土壤含水量及小麦覆盖度的反演方法。分析结果表明：①裸土后向散射系数受地表粗糙度和土壤质地的综合影响较大，裸土的后向散射和土壤含水量正相关关系未达显著，反演裸土土壤含水量必须考虑这两个因素的影响。②冬小麦麦地两种极化后向散射对土壤含水量和小麦覆盖度的敏感性差异明显。由于小麦植株与土壤的水平同极化后向散射差异较大，水平极化后向散射系数和小麦覆盖度及土壤含水量相关性达到显著；冬小麦麦地的垂直同极化后向散射对土壤含水量较敏感，垂直极化后向散射系数和土壤含水量的相关性达到显著，但与小麦覆盖度的相关性相对较低。据此，利用冬小麦麦地的两个同极化后向散射系数，建立了后向散射系数与土壤含水量和小麦覆盖度之间的关系模型，实现了小麦覆盖度和冬小麦覆盖下的土壤含水量反演。验证结果表明：土壤含水量和小麦覆盖度反演结果与地面调查和测量结果一致。     

基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究

目前区域降雨型滑坡预测主要依赖降雨阈值开展,然而从降雨诱发滑坡机理可知,除降雨入渗导致的土壤含水量变化外,降雨入渗前的土壤含水量也是影响边坡失稳的重要因素,无法考虑降雨入渗前的土壤湿度情况,被认为是降雨阈值在滑坡预测中表现差的主要原因。针对这一问题,本文以四川省都江堰地区作为试验区域,提出考虑前期土壤湿度的区域降雨型滑坡预测思路,通过统计分析历史滑坡数据,构建了基于前期土壤湿度和近期降雨情况的水文-气象阈值模型,其中前期土壤湿度情况由改进的前期有效降雨指数刻画,近期降雨情况由最近的累积降雨量表示。试验结果表明:在试验区域的降雨型滑坡预测中,水文-气象阈值模型表现出较好的命中率和较低的误报率。本文构建的水文-气象阈值模型,可同时考虑前期土壤湿度和近期降雨对滑坡发生的影响,模型所需数据少、所用方法简单易操作且预测性能较优,适合在区域降雨型滑坡预测中推广应用。     

统计数据总量约束下全局优化阈值的冬小麦分布制图

大范围、长时间和高精度农作物空间分布基础农业科学数据的准确获取对资源、环境、生态、气候变化和国家粮食安全等问题研究具有重要现实意义和科学意义。本文针对传统阈值法农作物识别过程中阈值设置存在灵巧性差和自动化程度低等弱点,以中国粮食主产区黄淮海平原内河北省衡水市景县为典型实验区,首次将全局优化算法应用于阈值模型中阈值优化选取,开展了利用全局优化算法改进基于阈值检测的农作物分布制图方法创新研究。以冬小麦为研究对象,国产高分一号(GF-1)为主要遥感数据源,在作物面积统计数据为总量控制参考标准和全局参数优化的复合型混合演化算法SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona)支持下,提出利用时序NDVI数据开展阈值模型阈值参数自动优化的冬小麦空间分布制图方法。最终,获得实验区冬小麦阈值模型最优参数,并利用优化后的阈值参数对冬小麦空间分布进行提取。通过地面验证表明,利用本研究所提方法获取的冬小麦识别结果分类精度均达到较高水平。其中冬小麦识别结果总量精度达到了99.99%,证明本研究所提阈值模型参数优化方法冬小麦提取分类结果总量控制效果良好;同时,与传统的阈值法、最大似然和支持向量机等分类方法相比,本研究所提阈值模型参数优化法区域冬小麦作物分类总体精度和Kappa系数分别都有所提高,其中,总体精度分别提高4.55%、2.43%和0.15%,Kappa系数分别提高0.12、0.06和0.01,这体现出SCE-UA全局优化算法对提高阈值模型冬小麦空间分布识别精度具有一定优势。以上研究结果证明了利用本研究所提基于作物面积统计数据总量控制以及SCE-UA全局优化算法支持下阈值模型参数优化作物分布制图方法的有效性和可行性,可获得高精度冬小麦作物空间分布制图结果,这对提高中国冬小麦空间分布制图精度和自动化水平具有一定意义,也可为农作物面积农业统计数据降尺度恢复重建和大范围区域作物空间分布制图研究提供一定技术参考。     

华北平原灌溉需水量时空分布及驱动因素

采用华北平原14个气象站点2002年-2007年的降水资料、76个站点的0-80 cm厚度的土壤参数以及ETWatch系统计算的蒸散发量数据,运用水分平衡原理计算了灌溉需水量的空间分布;利用相关及多元逐步回归分析方法,定量分析了研究区灌溉需水量的主要驱动因素.结果表明:从山前平原到滨海平原,多年平均灌溉需水量分别为28...     

基于梯度结构相似度的矿区土壤湿度空间分析

基于中国蒙、陕、晋、三省区的神东矿区2000-2015年成像光谱仪数据,双抛物线型归一化植被指数（normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI）和地表辐射温度（land surface temperature,T_s）（记为NDVI-T_s）特征空间的温度植被干旱指数法计量地表土壤湿度,采用梯度结构相似度法定量分析研究区土壤湿度的时空分布特征。结果表明:神东矿区土壤湿度变化具有明显时空分布异质性,空间上,矿区土壤湿度表现出从西北部向东南部逐渐增加的规律,干旱区域由2000年的96.03%下降到2015年的59.59%;矿区60.05%的区域的土壤湿度发生了突变,其中49.87%区域地表植被覆盖得到明显改善,土壤湿度得到明显提高;35.18%的区域的土壤湿度发生了变化,其中28.13%区域地表植被覆盖有所改善,土壤湿度有所增加;仅有4.77%的区域的土壤湿度没有发生改变。进一步分析表明,地表土壤湿度的时空分布特征受区域地貌类型和下垫面覆盖影响较大。     

利用遥感和GIS研究内蒙古中西部地区环境变化

利用TM和MSS卫星遥感数据提取反映生态环境的植被、土壤亮度、湿度、热度指数，结合气候数据和其它地学辅助信息，在GIS的支持下建立环境质量评价模型；利用该模型评价了内蒙古中西部地区19876、1987、1996年跨越20年的环境变化，从区域平均环境质量指数的变化和各级指数分布的区域面积变化两方面说明了研究区20年来的环境退化；分析了气候因子对环境质量变化的影响，定量说明了半干旱地区影响环境变化的气候因子主要是湿润度，指出20年来人为因素对环境质量的影响呈现越来越大的趋势。     

Impact of sub-pixel heterogeneity on modelled brightness temperature for an agricultural region

Knowledge of sub-pixel heterogeneity, particularly at the passive microwave scale, can improve the brightness temperature (and ultimately the soil moisture) estimation. However, the impact of surface heterogeneity (in terms of soil moisture, soil temperature and vegetation water content) on brightness temperature in an agricultural setting is relatively unknown. The Soil Moisture Active Passive Validation Experiment 2012 (SMAPVEX12) provided an opportunity to evaluate sub-pixel heterogeneity at the scale of a Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) radiometer footprint using field measured data. The first objective of this study was to determine if accounting for surface heterogeneity reduced the error between estimated brightness temperature (T_b) and T_b measured by SMOS. It was found that when accounting for variation in surface soil moisture, temperature and vegetation water content within the pixel footprint, the error between the modelled T_b and the measured T_b was less than if a homogeneous pixel were modelled. The correlation between the surface parameters and the error associated with not accounting for surface heterogeneity were investigated. It was found that there was low to moderate correlation between the error and the coefficient of variance associated with the measured soil moisture, soil temperature and vegetation volumetric water content during the field campaign. However, it was found that the correlations changed depending on the stage of vegetation growth and the amount of time following a precipitation event. At the start of the field campaign (following a precipitation event), there was strong correlation between the error and all three surface parameters (r ≥ 0.75). Following a precipitation event close to the middle of the field campaign (during which there was rapid growth in vegetation), there was strong correlation between the error and the variability in vegetation water content (r = 0.89), moderate correlation with soil moisture (r = 0.61) and low correlation with soil temperature (r = 0.26).     

An Assessment of QuikSCAT Ku-Band Scatterometer Data for Soil Moisture Sensitivity

The QuikSCAT enhanced (2.225-km) backscattering product is investigated for sensitivity to changes in soil moisture and its potential for spatial disaggregation of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) soil moisture. Specifically, an active–passive methodology based on temporal change detection is tested using data from the 2006 National Airborne Field Experiment data set. This campaign was carried out from October 29 to November 20, 2006 in a 60 km $times$ 40 km area of the Murrumbidgee catchment, southeast Australia. Temporal change detection analysis and accuracy in terms of spatial pattern distribution throughout the domain were assessed using a passive microwave airborne product derived from the Polarimetric L-band Multibeam Radiometer at 1-km spatial resolution. QuikSCAT–AMSR-E intercomparisons indicated higher correlations when using C-band observations. The greatest sensitivity to soil moisture was observed when using V-polarized backscatter measurement. While backscattering data showed adequate temporal sensitivity to changes in soil moisture due to precipitation events, the spatial agreement was complicated by the presence of irrigation and standing water (rice fields). This resulted in low Cramer's Phi values (less than 0.06), which were used as a measure of spatial correspondence in terms of change in soil moisture and backscatter. In addition, the high QuikSCAT sensor frequency and existence of noise in the observed data contributed to the observed discrepancies.      

汶川地震粮食受损遥感快速估算与分析

综合利用灾前IRS P6 Liss-4高分辨率数据与灾后的航空影像, 估算粮食受损面积, 并利用同期农业气象数据估算了不同受灾区域粮食作物单产水平, 最终估算得出震区粮食作物受损产量。监测结果表明: 地震造成的12个重灾县市冬小麦直接损失247.1hm2, 产量约为1013778kg, 直接影响不大。但受灾地区冬小麦总产量超过22万t, 而且对秋粮作物的种植和生产造成影响, 对中国粮食生产的间接影响不容忽视。     

利用双变量同化与PCA-Copula法的冬小麦单产估测

为了进一步提高冬小麦产量估测的精度,基于集合卡尔曼滤波算法和粒子滤波（particle filter, PF）算法,对CERES–Wheat模型模拟的冬小麦主要生育期条件植被温度指数（vegetation temperature condition index,VTCI）、叶面积指数（leaf area index, LAI）和中分辨率成像光谱仪（moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, MODIS）数据反演的VTCI、LAI进行同化,利用主成分分析与Copula函数结合的方法构建单变量和双变量的综合长势监测指标,建立冬小麦单产估测模型,并通过对比分析选择最优模型,对2017—2020年关中平原的冬小麦单产进行估测。结果表明,单点尺度的同化VTCI、同化LAI均能综合反映MODIS观测值和模型模拟值的变化特征,且PF算法具有更好的同化效果;区域尺度下利用PF算法得到的同化VTCI和LAI所构建的双变量估产模型精度最高,与未同化VTCI和LAI构建的估产模型精度相比,研究区各县（区）的冬小麦估测单产与实际单产的均方根误差降低了56.25 kg/hm2,平均相对误差降低了1.51%,表明该模型能有效提高产量估测的精度,应用该模型进行大范围的冬小麦产量估测具有较好的适用性。     

Evaluation of hydrologic components of community land model 4 and bias identification

Runoff and soil moisture are two key components of the global hydrologic cycle that should be validated at local to global scales in Earth System Models (ESMs) used for climate projection. We have evaluated the runoff and surface soil moisture output by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) along with 8 other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) repository using satellite soil moisture observations and stream gauge corrected runoff products. A series of Community Land Model (CLM) runs forced by reanalysis and coupled model outputs was also performed to identify atmospheric drivers of biases and uncertainties in the CCSM. Results indicate that surface soil moisture simulations tend to be positively biased in high latitude areas by most selected CMIP5 models except CCSM, FGOALS, and BCC, which share similar land surface model code. With the exception of GISS, runoff simulations by all selected CMIP5 models were overestimated in mountain ranges and in most of the Arctic region. In general, positive biases in CCSM soil moisture and runoff due to precipitation input error were offset by negative biases induced by temperature input error. Excluding the impact from atmosphere modeling, the global mean of seasonal surface moisture oscillation was out of phase compared to observations in many years during 1985–2004. The CLM also underestimated runoff in the Amazon, central Africa, and south Asia, where soils all have high clay content. We hypothesize that lack of a macropore flow mechanism is partially responsible for this underestimation. However, runoff was overestimated in the areas covered by volcanic ash soils (i.e., Andisols), which might be associated with poor soil porosity representation in CLM. Our results indicate that CCSM predictability of hydrology could be improved by addressing the compensating errors associated with precipitation and temperature and updating the CLM soil representation.     

Comprehensive evaluation of soil moisture retrieval models under different crop cover types using C-band synthetic aperture radar data

In the present study, random forest regression (RFR), support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network regression (ANNR) models were evaluated for the retrieval of soil moisture covered by winter wheat, barley and corn crops. SVR with radial basis function kernel was provided the highest adj. R² (0.95) value for soil moisture retrieval covered by the wheat crop at VV polarization. However, RFR provided the adj. R² (0.94) value for soil moisture retrieval covered by barley crop at VV polarization using Sentinel-1A satellite data. The adj. R² (0.94) values were found for the soil moisture covered by corn crop at VV polarization using RFR, SVR linear and radial basis function kernels. The least performance was reported using ANNR model for almost all the crops under investigation. The soil moisture retrieval outcomes were found better at VV polarization in comparison to VH polarization using three different models.     

Investigating flash floods potential areas using ASCAT and TRMM satellites in the Western Cape Province,South Africa

The aim of the study was to evaluate flash flood potential areas in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, by integrating remote sensing products of high rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture and topographic wetness index (TWI). Rainfall has high spatial and temporal variability, thus needs to be quantified at an area in real time from remote sensing techniques unlike from sparsely distributed, point gauge network measurements. Western Cape Province has high spatial variation in topography which results in major differences in received rainfall within areas not far from each other. Although high rainfall was considered as the major cause of flash flood, also other contributing factors such as topography and antecedent soil moisture were considered. Areas of high flash flood potential were found to be associated with high rainfall, antecedent precipitation and TWI. Although TRMM 3B42 was found to have better rainfall intensity accuracy, the product is not available in near real time but rather at a rolling archive of three months; therefore, Multi- sensor precipitation estimate rainfall estimates available in near real time are opted for flash flood events. Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture observations were found to have a reasonable r value of 0.58 and relatively low MAE of 3.8 when validated with in situ soil moisture measurements. The results of this study underscore the importance of ASCAT and TRMM satellite datasets in mapping areas at risk of flooding.     

利用随机森林回归进行极化SAR土壤水分反演

全极化合成孔径雷达影像能够提供地物丰富的极化信息,挖掘这些信息在地表参数反演中的作用是目前相关领域的研究趋势之一。针对冬小麦区域的不同植被覆盖情况,利用随机森林回归对常用极化特征在土壤水分反演中的重要性进行评估,并在此基础上进行特征选择,挑选优化的极化特征组合,构建了高精度的土壤水分反演模型。实验结果显示,由重要性评分较高的极化特征所组成的反演模型能得到均方根误差（root mean square error,RMSE）小于6%的反演精度,比只输入传统线极化后向散射系数的模型在不同时相、不同数据集的精度都有所提高。与支持向量回归和人工神经网络模型进行比较,利用随机森林回归进行重要性评分与土壤水分反演的效果更好。