Evolution of operational management procedures for the South African West Coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) fishery

The commercial fishery for Jasus lalandii, the South Africa West Coast rock lobster, began in the late 1800s and at its peak in the early 1950s yielded an annual catch of 18 000 t. Although this annual catch has dropped to only some 2000 t over recent years, the fishery remains South Africa's third most valuable for landed value. The primary reason for the low total allowable catch (TAC) over these recent years has been a marked drop in somatic growth rate that occurred at the end of the 1980s, for reasons that remain unexplained. A key problem in formulating TAC recommendations with longer‐term objectives in mind, has been uncertainties about likely future trends, particularly in somatic growth and recruitment. To address this problem, an “operational management procedure” (OMP) was adopted in 1997 and has twice been re‐evaluated and modified (in 2000 and 2003) in the light of further data and changing perceptions of resource dynamics. The history of this process is reviewed, concentrating on the most recent modification. In particular, a summary is given of the process by which the merits of alternative management procedures were evaluated over a range of important uncertainties about the dynamics of the resource. This summary includes a discussion of the key trade‐offs between resource rebuilding, future TAC trends and TAC variability, and the eventual choice that was made. The paper concludes by listing a number of lessons learnt concerning best practice for OMP development as this process evolved.     

Developing an intermediate-complexity projection model for China's fisheries: A case study of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) in the Haizhou Bay,China

Projection models are commonly used to evaluate the impacts of fishing. However, previously developed projection tools were not suitable for China's fisheries as they are either overly complex and data-demanding or too simple to reflect the realistic management measures. Herein, an intermediate-complexity projection model was developed that could adequately describe fish population dynamics and account for management measures including mesh size limits, summer closure, and spatial closure. A two-patch operating model was outlined for the projection model and applied to the heavily depleted but commercially important small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) fishery in the Haizhou Bay, China, as a case study. The model was calibrated to realistically capture the fisheries dynamics with hindcasting. Three simulation scenarios featuring different fishing intensities based on status quo and maximum sustainable yield(MSY) were proposed and evaluated with projections. Stochastic projections were additionally performed to investigate the influence of uncertainty associated with recruitment strengths and the implementation of control targets. It was found that fishing at FMSY level could effectively rebuild the depleted stock biomass, while the stock collapsed rapidly in the status quo scenario. Uncertainty in recruitment and implementation could result in variabilities in management effects; but they did not much alter the management effects of the FMSY scenario. These results indicate that the lack of science-based control targets in fishing mortality or catch limits has hindered the achievement of sustainable fisheries in China. Overall, the presented work highlights that the developed projection model can promote the understanding of the possible consequences of fishing under uncertainty and is applicable to other fisheries in China.     

自然死亡率变化对黄海蓝点马鲛渔业管理的影响

传统的渔业资源评估方法对数据有一定的要求,而现有的许多渔业缺乏相关数据,造成了渔业评估和管理上的障碍。特别是自然死亡率,由于观测和计算的困难,研究中一般通过经验公式等方法进行假话,而不同来源的数据和估算方法的结果存在较大差异,可能导致在渔业资源评估和管理中很大的不确定性。本研究以蓝点马鲛（Scomberomorus niphonius）为例,利用MSE比较了22种基于有限数据的渔业管理规程（MP）,筛选出DCAC、SPMSY、curE75、minlenLopt1 4种对于M不确定性较为稳健的的管理方法,并针对不同年代的自然死亡率以及通过不同计算方法得出的自然死亡率对这4种MP进行了管理策略评价。结果表明：M自1980s至今的不同年代间有显著降低趋势,该变化对MP管理效果产生了较强影响。随着M降低,种群B>0.5BMSY的概率显著上升,而过度捕捞可能性在不同MP间有方向性的差异。M变化对对curE75、minlenLopt1的长期产量的影响较小,而对DCAC、SPMSY的AAVY<15%的可能性变化较大,即降低产量的波动。不同M估算方法的估计值相差不大,对MP管理影响不明显。综合结果来看,Cur75受自然死亡率不确定性影响较小,对于渔业资源的开发和保护两个方面有着最好的权衡,最适用于我国蓝点马鲛渔业的管理。