Regional inequality and polarization in the context of concurrent extreme weather and economic shocks

This study examines how extreme weather influences regional inequality and polarization within Mozambique in the context of on-going economic shocks. Utilizing satellite-based estimates of rainfall spatially analyzed within a GIS, we establish a 16-year rainfall climatology and calculate monthly rainfall anomalies for 665 villages. We approximate storm-total rainfall from all tropical cyclones entering the Mozambique Channel, as well as the extent of damaging winds for those making landfall, between 2005 and 2008. We group villages according to tropical cyclone impacts and use hierarchical cluster analysis to group the remaining villages according to shared patterns of monthly rainfall anomalies. Using economic data from the 2005 and 2008 National Agricultural Surveys of Mozambique, we relate weather patterns associated with near normal rainfall, tropical cyclones, flooding, and drought to changes in inequality and polarization by conducting decomposition analyses of the Gini index and Duclos-Esteban-Ray (DER) polarization index. Our findings mainly correspond to the generally accepted view that weather shocks exacerbate existing income and power disparities within societies. However, in some cases we find evidence that inequality and polarization can decline in the aftermath of an extreme event, and increase even where the weather is relatively good. By identifying varying effects of extreme events on inequality and polarization at subnational level, our study enables a more detailed understanding of weather-related effects on socio-economic outcomes in rural societies rapidly integrating into the global economy.     

Sediment yield and runoff frequency of small drainage basins in the Mojave Desert, U.S.A.

Sediment yield from small arid basins, particularly in the Mojave Desert, is largely unknown owing to the ephemeral nature of these fluvial systems and long recurrence interval of flow events. We examined 27 reservoirs in the northern and eastern Mojave Desert that trapped sediment from small (< 1 km²) drainage basins on alluvial fans over the past 100 yr, calculated annual sediment yield, and estimated the average recurrence interval (RI) of sediment-depositing flow events. These reservoirs formed where railbeds crossed and blocked channels, causing sediment to be trapped and stored upslope. Deposits are temporally constrained by the date of railway construction (1906–1910), the presence of ¹³⁷Cs in the reservoir profile (post-1952 sediment), and either 1993, when some basins breached during regional flooding, or 2000–2001, when stratigraphic analyses were performed. Reservoir deposits are well stratified at most sites and have distinct fining-upward couplets indicative of discrete episodes of sediment-bearing runoff. Average RI of runoff events for these basins ranges from 2.6 to 7.3 yr and reflects the incidence of either intense or prolonged rainfall; more than half the runoff events occurred before 1963. A period of above-normal precipitation, from 1905 to 1941, may have increased runoff frequency in these basins. Mean sediment yield (9 to 48 tons km^− 2 yr^− 1) is an order of magnitude smaller than sediment yields calculated elsewhere and may be limited by reduced storm intensity, the presence of desert pavement, and shallow gradient of fan surfaces. Sediment yield decreases as drainage area increases, a trend typical of much larger drainage basins where sediment-transport processes constrain sediment yield. Coarse substrate and low-angle slopes of these alluvial fan surfaces likely limit sediment transport capacity through transmission losses and channel storage.     

中国城市化水平的自回归与功率谱分析

利用1949~2000年的城市人口比重数据,开展中国城市化过程的自相关和功率谱分析,建立了ARMA (1,q )模型。中国的城市化过程具有1阶自相关特征:上一年的一个变动直接影响下一年,间接影响则可达10年之久。ARMA (1,q)模型表明中国的城市化过程在趋势性上附加有丰富的随机性。对提取趋势之后的序列进行功率谱分析,发现趋势性和随机性的背后隐含一个长度为30年左右的周期波动。根据上述研究,将中国的城市化过程分解为三种变动:趋势性、周期性和随机性。研究结论对发展更为完善的城市化预测方法,以及对指导具有中国特色的城市化建设,都可能具有一定程度的启示意义。     

Fully normalized spherical cap harmonics: application to the analysis of sea-level data from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1

We introduce two sets of fully normalized harmonics for the spectral analysis of functions defined on a spherical cap. The harmonics are the products of Fourier functions and the fully normalized associated Legendre functions of non-integer degree. Using Sturm-Liouville theory for boundary-value problems, we present two convenient and stable formulae for computing the zeros of the associated Legendre functions that form two sets of orthogonal functions. Formulae for the stable numerical evaluation of the fully normalized associated Legendre functions of non-integer degree that avoid the gamma function are also derived. The result from the expansions of sea-level anomaly from altimetry into Set 2 fully normalized cap harmonics shows fast convergence of the series, and the degree variances decay rapidly without aliasing effects. The zero-degree coefficients (Set 2) of sea-level anomaly from TOPEX/ POSEIDON (T/P) and ERS-1 indicate an El Niño event during 1993 January-1993 July, and a La Niño event during 1993 November-1994 July, although the ERS-1 result is less obvious. Ocean circulations over the South China Sea and the Kuroshio area are clearly identified with the low-degree expansions of sea-surface topography (SST) from T/P and ERS-1. A cold-core eddy of 4° in diameter centred at 17.5°N, 118 E was detected with the expansion of SST from T/P cycle 47, and a property of the cap harmonics is used to compute this eddy's kinetic energy. The kinetic energy is at a low in winter and high in summer, and its variation seems to be periodic with an amplitude of 0.4 m² S^-2.     

基于谱间特征和归一化指数分析的城市建筑用地信息提取

以福州市ETM+影像为例,研究了城市建筑用地信息快速准确提取的原理和方法。通过对归一化差异型指数构成原理的分析以及对同名异义和异名同义现象的甄别,选取了归一化差异建筑指数(NDBI)、修正归一化差异水体指数(MNDWI)和土壤调节植被指数(SAVI)来代表城市建成区的三种最主要的土地利用类型--建筑用地、水体和植被。在此基础上进一步对这三个新的指数波段进行谱间特征分析,最后利用基于规则的逻辑判别运算将城市建筑用地信息提取出来。研究表明这一方法可以使繁杂的多波段谱间分析得以简化, 是一种快速准确、未经人工干预的建筑用地信息提取方法。本文还探讨了在城市建成区的研究中采用SAVI指数替代NDVI指数的优点。     

The statistical relationship between unconfined compressive strengths and the frequency distributions of slope gradients — A case study in northern Hungary

This paper focuses on the question of whether there is a deterministic connection between the slope gradient and unconfined compression strength (UCS) as a lithological factor and on describing the nature of this connection. Moreover, the authors determined the sensitive statistical parameters in the statistical surface analyses. The surface analyses were carried out in an area extending over 1500 km² in northern Hungary and containing parts of the uplifted Palaeozoic and Mesozoic basement and the semi-consolidated material of the Palaeogene and Neogene molasse sediments.The 67 geological formations of the area were grouped into 10 petrophysical categories characterised by unconfined compressive strength as a petrophysical parameter. The geological database was the digitalized geological map of North Hungarian Region (1 : 100 000). The digital topographic database was based on 10 m contour lines of 1 : 50 000 maps, the digital elevation model was generated by kriging interpolation. Three topographic models were created with resolutions of 25 × 25, 50 × 50 and 100 × 100 m per pixels.Evident correlation can be shown between the UCS and the relative frequency of the slope gradient. The adequate regression procedure is the power regression for low slope category values while logarithmic regression is applicable at high slope angles. Based on the characteristic of the relationship and the value of r², slope category intervals can be identified the relative frequency of which is proven to be determined by the UCS. These intervals are found to be between 4–10%, 10–16%, 16–22%, 22–44% and over 44%.Using the determination equations of slope gradient between 4–10% and over 44%, the UCS of the bedrock can be calculated approximately as the average value of the two calculated results. So the quotient of the frequency of these two category intervals can be regarded as an important morphometric index for a given bedrock.From the aspect of petrophysical characteristics, the rock with UCS between 6 and 86 MPa were proven to be deterministic for the slope development i.e. in the determination of the slope category frequencies. Applying the relative frequency of slope gradients a relative erosion resistance of the petrophysical categories can be calculated.Considering the determination coefficients, among the statistical parameters of the distribution of slope category values the standard deviation, mode, mean and median proved to be determined by the UCS of the bedrock.     

Spatial analysis of rockfall activity, bounce heights and geomorphic changes over the last 50 years – A case study using dendrogeomorphology

Tree-ring series have been used to reconstruct 50 years of rockfall behavior on a slope near Saas Balen (Swiss Alps). A total of 796 cores and 141 cross sections from 191 severely injured conifer trees (Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Pinus cembra L.), combined with a series of aerial photographs, were used to investigate the evolution of the forest stand so as (i) to reconstruct past rockfall rates; (ii) to analyze the spatial behavior of maximum bounce heights; and (iii) to analyze the spatial comportment of rockfall activity over the last five decades.Tree-ring analysis permitted the reconstruction of the age distribution at the study site; results were in perfect agreement with the afforestation process shown in the aerial photographs. The oldest are located in the lower, central part of the study site; the youngest individuals at its uppermost lateral boundaries. Reconstructed rockfall rates reveal strong interannual variations and single event years with increased activity, namely in 1960/1961 and 1995. Spatial analysis of the maximum bounce heights indicate highest values at the lateral boundaries and lowest heights in the lower central part of the forest stand, where a big boulder seems to shield trees growing below it. The spatial analysis of past rockfall activity shows high active zones at the uppermost north-facing boundaries of the forest and least active zones in the lowermost central part of the studied stand. The high rockfall activity at the slope is expressed by a mean rockfall rate of > 1 event m^− 1 y^− 1.     

青藏高原及横断山区地质灾害易发区空间格局及驱动因子

青藏高原及横断山区位中国西南部,地貌类型复杂,地质灾害频发,严重威胁到西南地区人民生命财产安全,尤其影响进藏交通线的通达度。系统研究该区地质灾害易发区空间格局及驱动因子,可为青藏高原及横断山区地质灾害风险防范及地质灾害的防灾减灾救灾提供重要理论支撑。研究结果表明,基于随机森林构建的判识模型对于灾害点的判识精度均高于80%,甚至达到91%,可准确模拟与预测研究区各分区的地质灾害点。研究区地质灾害易发点主要分布在横断山区南部与东北部以及青藏高原中南部地区,且以小型及中型规模地质灾害为主（占比为87%）。综合分区Ⅰ~Ⅲ的地质灾害易发区面积分别为17.5万km²、17.4万km²与27.5万km²。各综合分区地质灾害驱动因子研究表明,横断山区南部区域（综合分区Ⅰ内）小型及中型地质灾害的主要驱动力为道路建设导致的沿途坡面稳定性变化（贡献率为20.2%）;横断山区东北部区域及青藏高原地区（综合分区Ⅱ~Ⅲ）小型及中型地质灾害的主要驱动力为植被覆盖状况的变化对于坡面稳定性的影响（贡献率分别为23.6%与27.3%）。此外,综合分区Ⅱ~Ⅲ内影响小型及中型地质灾害空间格局的第二个驱动因子为道路建设导致的沿途坡面稳定性的变化（贡献率为15.7%）与河流对于周边坡面的侵蚀作用（贡献率为17%）。     

Late Cenozoic geomorphologic signal of Andean forearc deformation and tilting associated with the uplift and climate changes of the Southern Atacama Desert (26°S–28°S)

We analyze remarkable examples of the large ( 10,000 km²) and local-scale ( 100 km²) landscape forms related to Late Cenozoic geomorphologic evolution of the Andean forearc region in the Southern Atacama Desert. We also consider the continental sedimentary deposits, so-called “Atacama Gravels”, which are related to the degradation of the landscape during the Neogene. Our analysis integrates 1:50,000 field cartography, Landsat TM images observations,  1:1000 sedimentary logging data, and 50 m horizontal resolution topographic data to reconstruct the Late Cenozoic geomorphologic evolution of this region and discuss the factors that control it, i.e., Miocene aridification of the climate and Neogene Central Andean uplift. We determine that the Precordillera was already formed in the Oligocene and most of the present-day altitude of the Precordillera was reached before that time. Afterward, five episodes of geomorphologic evolution can be differentiated: (1) the development of an Oligocene deep incised drainage system cutting the uplifted Precordillera (up to 2000 m of vertical incision) and connecting it to the Ocean; followed by (2) the infilling of deep incised valleys by up to 400 m of Atacama Gravels. This infill started in the Early Miocene with the development of fluvial deposition and finished in the Middle Miocene with playa and playa lake depositions. We propose that playa-related deposition occurs in an endorheic context related to tectonic activity of the Atacama Fault System and Coastal Cordillera uplift. However, the upward sedimentologic variation in the Atacama Gravels evidences a progressive aridification of the climate. Subsequently, we have identified the effects of the Middle–Upper Miocene slow tectonic deformation: the Neogene Andean uplift is accommodated by a tilting or flexuring of the inner-forearc (Central Depression and Precordillera) related to some hundreds of meters of uplift in the Precordillera. This tilting or flexuring results in (3) the Middle Miocene re-opening of the valley network to the Pacific Ocean. Upper Miocene aridification, from arid to hyperarid, induces alluvial fans backfilling in the Central Depression (4) resulting in up to 50 m of Atacama Gravel deposition. Finally, in response to an increase in the rate of tilting, a new phase of vertical incision (up to 800 m in the Precordillera) allows the development of the canyon that crosses the forearc (5).     

The residential segregation of San Antonio,Texas in 1910: an analysis of ethno-racial and occupational spatial patterns with the colocation quotient

The segregation of cities can be traced to a time when the compartmentalization of space and people was based on factors other than race. In segregation research, one of the limiting factors has always been the geographic scale of the data, and the limited knowledge that exists of segregation patterns when the household is the unit of analysis. Historical census data provides the opportunity to analyze the disaggregated information, and this paper does so with San Antonio during 1910. A spatial analysis of residential segregation based on race, ethnicity, and occupations is carried out with the colocation quotient to map and measure the attraction of residents. Results reveal the presence of residential segregation patterns on different sectors of the city based on households’ ethno-racial and occupational attributes; therefore, providing evidence of the existence of residential segregation prior to the commonly cited determinants of segregation of the 20th century.