Impacts of climate, lake size, and supra- and sub-permafrost groundwater flow on lake-talik evolution, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

In cold regions, hydrologic systems possess seasonal and perennial ice-free zones (taliks) within areas of permafrost that control and are enhanced by groundwater flow. Simulation of talik development that follows lake formation in watersheds modeled after those in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska (USA) provides insight on the coupled interaction between groundwater flow and ice distribution. The SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze–thaw physics is used to examine the effect of climate, lake size, and lake–groundwater relations on talik formation. Considering a range of these factors, simulated times for a through-going sub-lake talik to form through 90 m of permafrost range from ～200 to >?1,000  years (vertical thaw rates <?0.1–0.5  m?yr^?1). Seasonal temperature cycles along lake margins impact supra-permafrost flow and late-stage cryologic processes. Warmer climate accelerates complete permafrost thaw and enhances seasonal flow within the supra-permafrost layer. Prior to open talik formation, sub-lake permafrost thaw is dominated by heat conduction. When hydraulic conditions induce upward or downward flow between the lake and sub-permafrost aquifer, thaw rates are greatly increased. The complexity of ground-ice and water-flow interplay, together with anticipated warming in the arctic, underscores the utility of coupled groundwater-energy transport models in evaluating hydrologic systems impacted by permafrost.     

Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit Airport,Nunavut, Canada

Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.

     

Progress in Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Impact of Thermokarst Lakes on Permafrost Thermal Regime

Thermokarst lakes are a major heat source for the adjacent permafrost and a significant source of atmospheric methane. These lakes have important impacts on the physical, chemical, biological, geomorphological and hydrological processes occurring in the ground under and around thermokarst lakes, and seriously affect the local environment and the stability of the structures constructed in permafrost regions. Numerical simulation methods provide an effective method for quantitative analysis of the long-term impact of thermokarst lakes and their evolution on permafrost surrounding the lakes, and have deepened our knowledge about the impact of thermokarst lakes immensely. Summarizing the research progresses in numerical simulation of long-term impact of thermokarst lakes on thermal regime of surrounding permafrost has an important guiding function to improve mathematical models and develop more effective models. In this study, the components, functions, advantages and defects of several typical mathematical models having developed over the past ten years or so were reviewed, such as the heat conduction model with phase change, thaw slumping model, the coupled lake-permafrost model, thaw lake expansion model combining thermal processes with mass wasting and thaw-driven subsidence, the coupled heat conduction and moisture migration model, and the moving mesh method based thermokarst lake dynamic evolution model. Several issues deserving to be paid further attention in the future researches were proposed, including creating more effective models, determining the more realistic initial condition, lucubrating thermal and physical parameters of the typical soils, consider the impact of lake water replenishment, quantitative analysis of the thermal effect of supra-permafrost water flow around the thermokarst lakes, creating the coupled governing equation of heat conduction with phase change and convective heat transfer, embed ding the effect of climate warming in the model, numerical investigation of the long-term influence of thermokarst lake drainage on the environment change in permafrost regions, analyzing the long-term joint impact of multiple lakes on adjacent permafrost, simulating the near-shore talik development process and feature beneath shallow water in expanding thermokarst lakes, and continuing to do the systemic and comprehensive field measurements.     

Analysis of groundwater flow through low-latitude alpine permafrost by model simulation: a case study in the headwater area of Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Warming climate and thawing permafrost have profound impacts on groundwater flow regimes in cold regions because of the shrinkage or disappearance of the confining unit formed by the permafrost layers and improving hydraulic connections. Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer are often used to characterize the changing permafrost hydrogeology. In this study, a number of scenarios for different hydraulic gradients and lake-water depths have been used to simulate the concordant permafrost evolution and groundwater movement using a two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate model at time scales of decades to centuries in response to a warming climate. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment in the south-central headwater area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The results show that the presence and movement of groundwater and the deeper subpermafrost aquifer can substantially accelerate permafrost degradation, and the disappearance of residual permafrost at depth can result in the sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. All hydrological impacts will become evident after the stabilization of the hydrothermal and flow fields at 100–200 years. The stable discharge rate of groundwater flow varies from 8.0 to 12.4 m³ s⁻¹, and the stable velocity of groundwater flow varies from 1.6 × 10⁻⁷ to 4.4 × 10⁻⁷ m s⁻¹ under different scenarios within the model domain. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow velocity and discharge rate in local groundwater flow systems can be enhanced by an increased hydraulic conductivity, leading to an accelerated degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

     

Permafrost degradation and subsurface-flow changes caused by surface warming trends

Change dynamics of permafrost thaw, and associated changes in subsurface flow and seepage into surface water, are analysed for different warming trends in soil temperature at the ground surface with a three-phase two-component flow system coupled to heat transport. Changes in annual, seasonal and extreme flows are analysed for three warming-temperature trends, representing simplified climate-change scenarios. The results support previous studies of reduced temporal variability of groundwater flow across all investigated trends. Decreased intra-annual flow variability may thus serve as an early indicator of permafrost degradation before longer-term changes in mean flows are notable. This is advantageous since hydrological data are considerably easier to obtain, may be available in longer time series, and generally reflect larger-scale conditions than direct permafrost observations. The results further show that permafrost degradation first leads to increasing water discharge, which then decreases as the permafrost degradation progresses further to total thaw. The most pronounced changes occur for minimum annual flows. The configuration considered represents subsurface discharge from a generic heterogeneous soil-type domain.     

Review: Progress in permafrost hydrogeology in China

Groundwater in China’s permafrost region is vital for humans and cold-climate ecosystems. Permafrost responses to global warming have significantly changed the spatio-temporal patterns and distribution of properties associated with the groundwater system. The main areas of current and past studies on permafrost hydrogeology in China include four aspects: groundwater distribution and dynamics in permafrost regions, interplay between groundwater and permafrost, the impact of permafrost degradation on groundwater, and the regional effect of groundwater changes on the environment in permafrost regions. Over the last 10 years, the development and use of coupled heat-transport and groundwater models have focused on the hydrogeology of permafrost, and on groundwater development and distribution in permafrost regions. Progress in groundwater-related research on issues surrounding permafrost regions of China are comprehensively summarized and discussed in this review paper, which should provide a theoretical basis for further study of the groundwater system and its effects on the ecological environment under climate change.     

The impact of tunneling construction on the hydrogeological environment of “Tseng-Wen Reservoir Transbasin Diversion Project” in Taiwan

Groundwater flow and the associated surface water flow are potential negative factors on underground tunnels. Early detection of environmental impacts on water resources is of significant importance to planning, design and construction of tunnel projects, as early detection can minimize accidents and project delays during construction. The groundwater modeling software package Groundwater Modeling System (GMS), which supports the groundwater numerical codes MODFLOW and FEMWATER, was utilized to determine the impact of tunneling excavation on the hydrogeological environment in a regional area around the tunnel and a local hot springs area, at the “Tseng-Wen Reservoir Transbasin Diversion Project”, in Taiwan. A hydrogeological conceptual model was first developed to simplify structures related to the site topography, geology and geological structure. The MODFLOW code was then applied to simulate groundwater flow pattern for the hydrogeological conceptual model in the tunnel area. The automated parameter estimation method was applied to calibrate groundwater level fluctuation and hydrogeological parameters in the region. Calibration of the model demonstrated that errors between simulated and monitored results are smaller than allowable errors. The study also observed that tunneling excavation caused groundwater to flow toward the tunnel. No obvious changes in the groundwater flow field due to tunnel construction were observed far away in the surrounding regions. Furthermore, the FEMWATER code for solving 3-D groundwater flow problems, in which hydrogeological characteristics are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS), is applied to evaluate the impact of tunnel construction on an adjacent hot spring. Simulation results indicated that the groundwater drawdown rate is less than the groundwater recharge rate, and the change to the groundwater table after tunnel construction was insignificant for the hot spring area. Finally, the groundwater flow obtained via the GMS indicated that the hydrogeological conceptual model can estimate the possible quantity of tunnel inflow and the impact of tunnel construction on the regional and local groundwater resources regime of the transbasin diversion project.     

青藏高原多年冻土区两类低角度滑坡灾害形成机理探讨

青藏高原多年冻土区发育的两类低角度滑坡--融冻泥流和热融滑塌是冻融循环条件下特殊的斜坡失稳类型,在广大的非冻土地区一般很难见到这种低角度的滑坡类型。探讨了两类低角度滑坡灾害的形成机理,即质点迁移效应和滞水润滑效应。以摩尔-库仑强度准则为理论基础,应用所推导的沿坡面平行方向渗流条件下安全系数的统一形式,对青藏公路k3035里程热融滑塌体稳定性进行了分析评价,验证了活动层沿厚层地下冰面滑动的“滞水润滑效应”。从环境工程地质学的观点出发,针对热融滑塌这种可控的滑坡地质灾害,提出了基于保护冻土原则的具体的防治措施。     

青藏高原热融湖横向扩张速率对湖下融区发展影响的数值模拟

热融湖是高纬度和高海拔富冰多年冻土区重要的自然景观。这些湖由于富冰多年冻土或地下冰的融化而形成,由于湖水向周边多年冻土传递热量而持续扩张。以青藏高原北麓河地区一个热融湖的信息和冻土监测资料为基础,运用柱坐标系下伴有相变的热传导模型模拟了以不同的横向扩张速率演化的热融湖湖下融区的发展过程。结果表明：在青藏高原多年冻土厚度为75 m的北麓河盆地,分别以横向扩张速率0.10 m·a^-1、0.15 m·a^-1、0.20 m·a^-1和0.25 m·a^-1演化的热融湖,在湖形成分别达760 a、703 a、671 a和652 a时,湖下形成贯通融区,相应的多年冻土从上向下融化的平均速率分别为8.22 cm·a^-1,8.89 cm·a^-1,9.31 cm·a^-1和9.74 cm·a^-1。热融湖的横向扩张速率对湖下的融区发展和土壤热状况有重要的影响,在现场调查资料的基础上选取正确的热融湖横向扩张速率是热融湖对多年冻土热状况作用数值模拟研究的必要前提。     

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain,China

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.     

Retrogression characteristics of landslides in fine-grained permafrost soils, Mackenzie Valley, Canada

Thirteen landslides (retrogressive thaw flows) were investigated to study the behavior of thaw retrogression in permafrost in the Mackenzie Valley, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Those landslides are all in fine-grained ice-rich permafrost soils. Such landslides usually start from small-scale slope failures followed by retrogressive thaw flows when ice-rich permafrost soils are exposed to the atmosphere. The landslides were marked with survey stakes to measure their retreat rates for the thawing season of 2007. Two correlations are presented: one is between scarp wall height and retreat rate; another is between overall slope angle and retreat rate. It was found that thaw flow retrogression rate increases with increase in scarp wall height and slope angle up to a certain limit. It was also confirmed that thaw flow retrogression is not influenced by slope orientation.     

冻结层上水的分布及工程影响研究现状与展望

作为一种多年冻土区的特殊水文地质现象,冻结层上水（或多年冻土层上水）的分布受局地因素的控制,且随活动层的季节性冻融而变化,影响地表水和地下水循环以及多年冻土环境中的水热平衡。多年冻土将冻结层上水限制在一个狭窄的空间内,在暖季冻结层上水侧向和竖向的渗流传热将加剧多年冻土的退化,也会对上覆工程构筑物的稳定运营造成极大威胁。目前关于冻结层上水的研究主要集中在分布特征、变化规律、流量计算、渗流模拟、水热耦合等方面。研究发现：在全球升温背景下,多年冻土退化速率加剧,随着冻土厚度变薄和融区出现,冻结层上水的流量及其与地下水的交换量均发生变化,除了影响局地水文特征外,还与工程病害密切相关,如坡脚积水、路基沉降以及路面裂缝等。以区域分布特征为出发点,对冻结层上水的研究现状进行了归纳和总结,并对其工程影响有关的渗流传热理论研究成果进行了梳理,对今后需要进行深入研究的方向进行了展望。这有助于全面理解冻结层上水在冻土区水文过程中的功能,为相关研究提供了进一步的理论参考。     

Geothermal study to explain man-made permafrost in tailings with raised surface

Deposition of mine tailings in a cold climate requires precautions as temporary sub-zero temperatures can imply considerable consequences to the storage due to creation of permafrost. The risk of creating man-made permafrost lenses due to tailings deposition exists even in regions with no natural permafrost, as material being frozen during winter might not fully thaw by the following summer. When such frozen layers thaw during later longer warmer periods, excess pore water pressure and large settlements might develop. Such implications close to the dam structure have to be avoided and therefore the risk of generating permafrost should be reduced. This paper describes a geothermal model for one-dimensional heat conduction analysis. The model is able to simulate the temperature profile in tailings where the surface elevation is constantly increased due to deposition. At the tailings surface, the boundary condition is the air temperature changing over time during the year. Air temperatures, tailings deposition schedule and tailings properties are given as input to the model and can easily be changed and applied to specific facilities. The model can be used for tailings facilities in cold regions, where the effects of tailings deposition on the temperature regime are of interest. Findings can improve tailings management by explaining man-made permafrost generation. The model can also aid in setting up appropriate deposition schedules and to prevent generation of permafrost layers.     

多年冻土区输油管道工程中的(差异性)融沉和冻胀问题

多年冻土区石油和经济开发不断推动输油管道技术的发展,但是多年冻土区输油管道的(差异性)融沉和冻胀问题仍是关键性难题.寒区管道设计和施工必须考虑沿线的地形和环境条件对冻胀和融沉,以及相应的管道工程基础和结构整体性的影响.阿拉斯加输油管道工程取得成功的原因在于充足的科研投入、讨论和决策时间,以及最终采用的一系列创新设计来保护多年冻土和抑制融沉.这些研究围绕的关键问题是温热油管在多年冻土中的水热效应和差异性融沉和冻胀所导致的管道变形破坏,这些研究对可能出现问题的及早发现、充分理解和正确预测以及最终合理的设计、施工和维护至关重要.罗曼井和格拉线环境温度输油管道在20a左右的运营中,冻胀和融沉都比较显著.准确预测管道和围岩土的冻胀和融沉需要详细的观测研究和模拟试验相结合.在预测的基础上,针对具体问题抑制融沉和冻胀.成功设计、施工和运行寒区输油管道需要科学家、工程师、业界人士和管理部门密切合作.     

沥青路面下多年冻土上限变化计算的探讨

以相变热传导理论为基础,利用实测路面温度资料计算了多年冻土路基中冻土上限的变化趋势,认为上限的稳定是一个时间相当长的过程．人为上限在目前条件下仍在下降,从现在的１２ｃｍ／ａ下降至５０ａ后的５ｃｍ／ａ,届时上限深度将达到９４ｍ（从路面起计算）．     

青藏高原多年冻土区热融滑塌发育特征及规律

在全球气候变暖和高原多年冻土持续退化的背景下,青藏高原多年冻土区热融滑塌现象普遍发育,其形成不仅影响区域生态环境,还可能威胁工程构筑物的稳定性。本文在多年野外调查工作的基础上,结合遥感及历史气象资料对青藏高原多年冻土区热融滑塌的诱发因素、分布特征及演化过程进行了分析。结果表明：冻土活动层滑脱的发生是诱发青藏高原多年冻土区热融滑塌的主要因素,其次为工程扰动和湖水的热侵蚀;活动层滑脱型热融滑塌的发育过程主要包括冻土活动层滑脱的发生、后缘坍塌后退及坡面泥流的形成等三个阶段,热融滑塌形成以后其溯源侵蚀过程将持续数年甚至十几年直到后缘位置地下冰含量明显减少或者消失为止;在空间分布方面,热融滑塌更倾向于分布在坡度较为平缓（3°~8°）的丘陵山地及山麓区域的阴坡一侧;近年来青藏高原多年冻土区热融滑塌呈剧烈增多的趋势,且这种骤增现象主要发生在有极端气温出现的特殊年份,并不是均匀的分布在每一年。研究成果对未来青藏高原工程规划、资源开发及环境协调发展具有重要的指导意义。     

天山公路独山子至乔尔玛段冻土特征及其灾害初探

独山子至乔尔玛段公路位于天山达坂海拔较高处,沿线多种冻害(包括热融滑塌、冻胀、冻融泥流及路基融沉等)经常发生,随着整治改建工程的实施,逐渐改变了地气热交换的界面,多年冻土原有的水热平衡遭到了破坏,其结果是通过路基进入多年冻土的热收支呈正平衡发展趋势,积热作用导致了路基下多年冻土的融化,将会引起公路的融化下沉,冻土灾害将趋于严重,本文初步探明了该公路沿线多年冻土的特征,提出了施工和运营中应采取保护冻土的设计原则.     

青藏高原多年冻土地区公路路基变形

通过对现场实体工程的长期监测资料和路基破坏机理分析研究,使我们对沥青路面对多年冻土的严重影响,导致多年冻土的升温与退化,使路基产生较严重的不均匀下沉变形,及其它所引起的一系列路基病害问题的发生发展过程有了较为系统和深刻认识,取得了大量现场实测资料及研究成果.讨论了高温多年冻土地区冻土路基的变形特征,以及冻土路基变形与工程地质条件的关系,给出了路基随地温波动变化而发生的变形过程。     

Review: Groundwater in Alaska (USA)

Groundwater in the US state of Alaska is critical to both humans and ecosystems. Interactions among physiography, ecology, geology, and current and past climate have largely determined the location and properties of aquifers as well as the timing and magnitude of fluxes to, from, and within the groundwater system. The climate ranges from maritime in the southern portion of the state to continental in the Interior, and arctic on the North Slope. During the Quaternary period, topography and rock type have combined with glacial and periglacial processes to develop the unconsolidated alluvial aquifers of Alaska and have resulted in highly heterogeneous hydrofacies. In addition, the long persistence of frozen ground, whether seasonal or permanent, greatly affects the distribution of aquifer recharge and discharge. Because of high runoff, a high proportion of groundwater use, and highly variable permeability controlled in part by permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, understanding groundwater/surface-water interactions and the effects of climate change is critical for understanding groundwater availability and the movement of natural and anthropogenic contaminants.