Permafrost degradation and subsurface-flow changes caused by surface warming trends

Change dynamics of permafrost thaw, and associated changes in subsurface flow and seepage into surface water, are analysed for different warming trends in soil temperature at the ground surface with a three-phase two-component flow system coupled to heat transport. Changes in annual, seasonal and extreme flows are analysed for three warming-temperature trends, representing simplified climate-change scenarios. The results support previous studies of reduced temporal variability of groundwater flow across all investigated trends. Decreased intra-annual flow variability may thus serve as an early indicator of permafrost degradation before longer-term changes in mean flows are notable. This is advantageous since hydrological data are considerably easier to obtain, may be available in longer time series, and generally reflect larger-scale conditions than direct permafrost observations. The results further show that permafrost degradation first leads to increasing water discharge, which then decreases as the permafrost degradation progresses further to total thaw. The most pronounced changes occur for minimum annual flows. The configuration considered represents subsurface discharge from a generic heterogeneous soil-type domain.     

Spatial and seasonal variability of polygonal tundra water balance: Lena River Delta, northern Siberia (Russia)

The summer water balance of a typical Siberian polygonal tundra catchment is investigated in order to identify the spatial and temporal dynamics of its main hydrological processes. The results show that, besides precipitation and evapotranspiration, lateral flow considerably influences the site-specific hydrological conditions. The prominent microtopography of the polygonal tundra strongly controls lateral flow and storage behaviour of the investigated catchment. Intact rims of low-centred polygons build hydrological barriers, which release storage water later in summer than polygons with degraded rims and troughs above degraded ice wedges. The barrier function of rims is strongly controlled by soil thaw, which opens new subsurface flow paths and increases subsurface hydrological connectivity. Therefore, soil thaw dynamics determine the magnitude and timing of subsurface outflow and the redistribution of storage within the catchment. Hydraulic conductivities in the elevated polygonal rims sharply decrease with the transition from organic to mineral layers. This interface causes a rapid shallow subsurface drainage of rainwater towards the depressed polygon centres and troughs. The re-release of storage water from the centres through deeper and less conductive layers helps maintain a high water table in the surface drainage network of troughs throughout the summer.     

基于LSTM的青藏高原冻土区典型小流域径流模拟及预测

冻土覆盖率高的小流域的径流形成受温度因素控制明显,普通水文模型不适用,而常规冻土水文模型因需要较多的气象观测要素而难以应用.考虑冻土流域产流机制,利用青藏高原腹地风火山小流域2017—2018年逐日降水、气温、径流观测数据,以降水、气温为输入,径流为输出,基于长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)建立了适用于小流域尺度的冻土水...     

Retrogression characteristics of landslides in fine-grained permafrost soils, Mackenzie Valley, Canada

Thirteen landslides (retrogressive thaw flows) were investigated to study the behavior of thaw retrogression in permafrost in the Mackenzie Valley, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Those landslides are all in fine-grained ice-rich permafrost soils. Such landslides usually start from small-scale slope failures followed by retrogressive thaw flows when ice-rich permafrost soils are exposed to the atmosphere. The landslides were marked with survey stakes to measure their retreat rates for the thawing season of 2007. Two correlations are presented: one is between scarp wall height and retreat rate; another is between overall slope angle and retreat rate. It was found that thaw flow retrogression rate increases with increase in scarp wall height and slope angle up to a certain limit. It was also confirmed that thaw flow retrogression is not influenced by slope orientation.     

Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system

Groundwater flow in cold regions containing permafrost accelerates climate-warming-driven thaw and changes thaw patterns. Simulation analyses of groundwater flow and heat transport with freeze/thaw in typical cold-regions terrain with nested flow indicate that early thaw rate is particularly enhanced by flow, the time when adverse environmental impacts of climate-warming-induced permafrost loss may be severest. For the slowest climate-warming rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), once significant groundwater flow begins, thick permafrost layers can vanish in several hundred years, but survive over 1,000 years where flow is minimal. Large-scale thaw depends mostly on the balance of heat advection and conduction in the supra-permafrost zone. Surface-water bodies underlain by open taliks allow slow sub-permafrost flow, with lesser influence on regional thaw. Advection dominance over conduction depends on permeability and topography. Groundwater flow around permafrost and flow through permafrost impact thaw differently; the latter enhances early thaw rate. Air-temperature seasonality also increases early thaw. Hydrogeologic heterogeneity and topography strongly affect thaw rates/patterns. Permafrost controls the groundwater/surface-water-geomorphology system; hence, prediction and mitigation of impacts of thaw on ecology, chemical exports and infrastructure require improved hydrogeology/permafrost characterization and understanding.     

中国寒区水文学研究的新阶段 ——记我国杰出寒区水文学家叶柏生研究员的创新与贡献

我国杰出的寒区水文学家叶柏生研究员不幸因公殉职. 选取了叶柏生研究员若干代表性研究成果, 包括与他人的合作研究成果, 重点从冰川水文、 冻土水文和区域水文变化三方面总结了其对寒区水文学发展所做的创新与贡献. 文章列出了每项研究成果的核心内容, 并给予了简要评述. 所选成果中, 冰川水文方面研究涉及冰川对河川径流的调节作用、 冰川径流对气候变化的响应机理等; 冻土水文研究着重介绍了多年冻土变化对流域径流过程及其变化影响方面的系统性成果; 区域水文变化研究方面, 选取了降水观测误差修正、 气候变化对区域径流的影响等方面的创新成果. 这些研究成果极大地提高了我国在世界寒区水文学研究的地位, 对认识寒区水文过程及气候变化对水资源的影响具有重要科学意义.     

大兴安岭林区火灾后冻土环境的变化——以古莲河煤矿地区为例

本文通过对我国大兴安岭古莲河煤矿地区火灾后第二年冻土环境的野外调查表明,火灾后气温、地温、蒸发量及风速有明显的增加;湿度、含冰量、含水量有显著的减小。所有这些因子的变化导致了季节融化深度的增加。这些结论说明了森林火灾后冻土环境确实有较大的变化。此外,结合室内试验,本文还对火灾后最大季节融化深度(ξ_(max))进行了预测、由于植被与冻土关系的复杂性,本文对今后的工作提出了自己的看法,以便更完善地研究火灾后冻土环境的变化及对森林生态系统的影响。     

Impacts of climate, lake size, and supra- and sub-permafrost groundwater flow on lake-talik evolution, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

In cold regions, hydrologic systems possess seasonal and perennial ice-free zones (taliks) within areas of permafrost that control and are enhanced by groundwater flow. Simulation of talik development that follows lake formation in watersheds modeled after those in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska (USA) provides insight on the coupled interaction between groundwater flow and ice distribution. The SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze–thaw physics is used to examine the effect of climate, lake size, and lake–groundwater relations on talik formation. Considering a range of these factors, simulated times for a through-going sub-lake talik to form through 90 m of permafrost range from ～200 to >?1,000  years (vertical thaw rates <?0.1–0.5  m?yr^?1). Seasonal temperature cycles along lake margins impact supra-permafrost flow and late-stage cryologic processes. Warmer climate accelerates complete permafrost thaw and enhances seasonal flow within the supra-permafrost layer. Prior to open talik formation, sub-lake permafrost thaw is dominated by heat conduction. When hydraulic conditions induce upward or downward flow between the lake and sub-permafrost aquifer, thaw rates are greatly increased. The complexity of ground-ice and water-flow interplay, together with anticipated warming in the arctic, underscores the utility of coupled groundwater-energy transport models in evaluating hydrologic systems impacted by permafrost.     

The active-layer hydrology of a peat plateau with thawing permafrost (Scotty Creek, Canada)

The southern margin of permafrost is experiencing unprecedented rates of thaw, yet the effect of this thaw on northern water resources is poorly understood. The hydrology of the active layer on a thawing peat plateau in the wetland-dominated zone of discontinuous permafrost was studied at Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories (Canada), from 2001 to 2010. Two distinct and seasonally characteristic levels of unfrozen moisture were evident in the 0.7-m active layer. Over-winter moisture migration produced a zone of high ice content near the ground surface. The runoff response of a plateau depends on which of the three distinct zones of hydraulic conductivity the water table is displaced into. The moisture and temperature of the active layer steadily rose with each year, with the largest increases close to the ground surface. Permafrost thaw reduced subsurface runoff by (1) lowering the hydraulic gradient, (2) thickening the active layer and, most importantly, (3) reducing the surface area of the plateau. By 2010, the cumulative permafrost thaw had reduced plateau runoff to 47 % of what it would have been had there been no change in hydraulic gradient, active layer thickness and plateau surface area over the decade.     

1957—2019年昆仑山北麓车尔臣河流域水文情势及其对气候变化的响应

气候变暖背景下干旱区水文、水资源的变化仍是影响区域水资源利用和洪水灾害防治的关键科学问题。基于1957—2019年长序列的水文、气象资料,系统分析了昆仑山北麓车尔臣河流域的水文变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。总体上,车尔臣河流域的水文过程的显著变化发生在1990s末期,变化前后年径流量约增加了54.67%,所有季节径流的增加共同造成了年径流的增加,其中夏季径流的增加对年径流增加的贡献最大,其次依次为秋季、春季和冬季。降水增加（第一控制因素）和气温升高（第二控制因素）共同造成了车尔臣河流域水文过程的变化。具体到径流年内变化,降水是春夏季径流变化的主控因素,而秋冬季径流变化的主控因素是气温。径流增加为中下游提供更多水资源的同时,也导致年际间水文洪涝和干旱事件发生的频率增加、强度增强。冰冻圈在该地区水文循环中起着重要的作用,但其对水文过程的影响仍不明确,加强阿尔金高山区的冰川、多年冻土监测将为进一步预估水文对气候变化的响应提供基础数据支撑。     

近50 a来我国东北多年冻土区南缘海拉尔河流域径流变化特征分析

选取位于我国东北多年冻土区南缘的海拉尔河流域作为研究对象,根据海拉尔河水文站1958-2008年的逐月实测径流量资料,用径流量的年内年际变化、各季占年径流量的百分比、年内不均匀系数、集中度以及降水量-径流量双累积曲线等不同指标,分析研究了海拉尔河上游径流量年际变化和年内分配的规律.研究表明：近50 a来海拉尔河径流量总体上呈递减趋势,并且径流量的递减与面上降水量的递减总体上一致;春、秋季节径流量均呈现出下降趋势,冬季径流量呈增加趋势. 冬季径流量增加可能是冬季积雪增多以及流域多年冻土退化,积雪对冻结的抑制有利于冬季的产流,从而使冬季产流增加所致. 径流量年内分配不均匀程度增加,秋季径流量比重显著下降,水资源年内分布集中程度增加,这一现象可能是由于夏季风的减弱所致. 通过运用双累积曲线法,研究区降水与径流的关系在1980年前后发生了明显变化,产流表现为增加趋势,但1999年后产流能力显著下降.     

土壤的冷生构造及其对阿拉斯加土地利用的意义

Cryogenic structure (patterns made by ice inclusions) in seasonally frozen and permafrost-af-fected soils result from ice formation during freezing. Analysis of cryogenic structures in soils is essential to our understanding of the cryogenic processes in soils and to formulating land use management interpretations. When soils freeze, the freezing front moves downward and attracts water moving upward resulting in mainly horizontal lenticular ice formation. Platy and lenticular soil structures form between ice lenses in upper active layer. The reticular soil structure usually forms above the permafrost table caused by freeze-back of the permafrost. The upward freeze-back resulted in platy soil structure and the volume changes following the annual freeze-thaw cycle resulted in vertical cracks. The combined result is an ice-net formation with mineral soils embedded in the ice net. The upper permafrost layer that used to be a part of the active layer has an ice content exceeding 50% due to repeated freeze-thaw cycles over time. The mineral soils appear in blocks embedded in an ice matrix. The permafrost layer that never experienced the freeze-thaw cycle often consists of alternate layers of thin ice lens and frozen soils with extreme hard consistence and has relatively lower ice content than the ice-rich layer of the upper permafrost. Ice contents and thaw settling potentials associated with each cryogenic structure should be considered in engineering and land use interpretations.     

涪江流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应

采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法分析了涪江流域实测径流量的变化趋势,根据假定的气候变化情景和HADCM3预估的气候情景,利用考虑融雪的水量平衡模型(SWBM模型)分析了径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:涪江流域径流量总体呈现递减趋势,但非汛期的个别月份有增加趋势,实测年径流变化主要是由于气候要素变化引起的,流域内的水电开发对径流量的季节分配存在一定的影响。SWBM模型对涪江流域月流量过程具有较好的模拟效果,实测与模拟径流量总体较为吻合,只有个别年份峰值模拟误差相对较大。气温变化固定的情况下,降水变化与径流变化之间的关系接近线性;在降水变化相同的情况下,单位气温变幅引起的径流量变化幅度也基本相当。尽管不同排放情景下涪江流域径流量的变化有一定差异,但总体来看,未来水资源可能以偏少为主,特别是2030年以后,多年平均偏少量将可能超过5%。     

Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit Airport,Nunavut, Canada

Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.

     

小流域地下裂隙潜流对降雨入渗补给的响应特性

采用翻斗法自动量水技术和时域反射仪,对“岩土二元结构”小流域降雨过程、流域出口地下裂隙潜流以及坡地岩土水分的变化进行了测定与分析。试验结果表明,小流域坡地特有的岩土二元结构体具有较强的储、透水性能,小流域在前期坡地岩土水分平均为14.48%(埋深100cm范围内)的前提下,发生总降雨量170.25mm,降雨历时31h,平均强度5.5mmh的大暴雨,在小流域出口处未产生地表迳流;地下裂隙潜流对降雨具有明显的响应,起涨和回落过程均较为明显,峰值流量达到810Lh,是降雨前的32.4倍。因此,科学合理地利用“岩土二元结构”的水文地质特性对缓解洪峰的形成,降低洪灾具有重要作用,同时对山区的雨水资源化问题也具有重要的实际意义。     

大孔隙对径流过程影响的研究进展

大孔隙流是土壤优先流的一种,在植被发育区土壤大孔隙比较常见,对径流形成过程产生重要的影响。介绍了大孔隙流的研究方法,系统总结了近50年植被发育区土壤大孔隙对降雨入渗过程及径流形成过程的影响:从水分入渗的角度,大孔隙可以加快降雨入渗过程;由土壤大孔隙流与山坡产流的关系,大孔隙促进了边坡雨水的运动进而引起了快速产流;世界范围内的研究都表明土壤管流或大孔隙流是径流组分重要贡献者。     

Groundwater recharge and chemical evolution in the southern High Plains of Texas, USA

The unconfined High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer is the largest aquifer in the USA and the primary water supply for the semiarid southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. Analyses of water and soils northeast of Amarillo, Texas, together with data from other regional studies, indicate that processes during recharge control the composition of unconfined groundwater in the northern half of the southern High Plains. Solute and isotopic data are consistent with a sequence of episodic precipitation, concentration of solutes in upland soils by evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration beneath playas and ditches (modified locally by return flow of wastewater and irrigation tailwater). Plausible reactions during recharge include oxidation of organic matter, dissolution and exsolution of CO₂, dissolution of CaCO₃, silicate weathering, and cation exchange. Si and ¹⁴C data suggest leakage from perched aquifers to the High Plains aquifer. Plausible mass-balance models for the High Plains aquifer include scenarios of flow with leakage but not reactions, flow with reactions but not leakage, and flow with neither reactions nor leakage. Mechanisms of recharge and chemical evolution delineated in this study agree with those noted for other aquifers in the south-central and southwestern USA. Electronic Publication     

黄河源区地下水位下降对生态环境的影响

黄河源区1:250000区域环境地质调查资料与以往资料的对比表明,黄河源区区域地下水位近几十年来呈现明显的下降趋势,主要表现在:地下水露头泉口下移,河谷区民井地下水位下降及山前冲洪积扇前缘泄出带下移.多年冻土的退化直接导致了冷生隔水层的下移,从而引起区域地下水位的下降.区域地下水位的下降导致生态水位下降,包气带土壤层的含水量减少,使该区出现植被草场退化、生物多样性减少、沼泽湿地萎缩、鼠害猖獗、荒漠化加剧及黄河断流等生态环境问题.     

大兴安岭北部霍拉河盆地季节融化层的研究

大兴安岭北部霍拉河盆地季节融化层的特征受气温的控制,并随地面条件、含水量和土质的不同而变化。最大季节融化深度,在土类相同时,裸露的比有植被和雪盖的深0.4—0.5m;土类不同时,卵砾石的最大,碎石亚粘土、亚粘土和草炭亚粘土的分别为卵砾石的0.65、0.5和0.4倍。年平均地温为-0.1℃的季节融化层比年平均地温为0——0.5℃的约提前2—3个月消失。回冻融化层中的地下冰与青藏高原相比,不甚发育,冻土构造主要呈整体状、微层状和裂隙状。     

黄河源区多年冻土活动层土壤水文过程季节变异分析

为从整体上认识多年冻土活动层土壤水文过程季节变异特性,以黄河源区巴颜喀拉山北坡冻土剖面为例,结合大气降水、冻土土壤水分、冻土层上水的野外观测,采用HYDRUS-1D软件冻融模块进行模拟分析,分析冻融作用对活动层土壤水文过程的影响,研究结果表明:(1)冻土层上水位与土壤水热之间存在着相互影响、相互作用的关系,依据活动层土壤温度变化,基于冻融过程,多年冻土活动层土壤水分与冻土层上水位可划分为冻结稳定、快速融化、融化稳定和快速冻结4个阶段。(2)降雨入渗是坡面尺度下活动层土壤水文过程的主要驱动力,活动层冻融锋面是主要限制性因素,受冻融过程影响,冻结期降雨减少,土壤冻结,土壤储水能力下降,土壤水分下渗停止,坡面侧向流动减弱,土壤水分和冻土层上水位处于下降趋势;融化期降雨增多,土壤融化,土壤储水能力上升,土壤水分下渗强烈,坡面侧向流动增强,土壤水分和冻土层上水位处于上升趋势。(3)受坡面地形影响,上坡活动层厚度大于下坡,上坡冻融锋面变化较下坡平缓,上坡土壤水分和冻土层上水位的变化幅度相对下坡较为平缓,而上坡土壤水分相对下坡含量较低,下坡冻土层上水位相对稳定。