Recent floods in Bangladesh: Possible causes and solutions

In recent years the frequency of abnormal floods in Bangladesh has increased substantially, causing serious damage to lives and property. The most crucial questions that need to be addressed are: what really causes the havoc-creating floods and is there any solution to the problem? The heavy monsoon downpour and synchronization of flood-peaks of the major rivers are generally considered to be the main causes of the floods. Some underlying factors also deserve serious consideration as possible contributors to the recent floods: change in the base level of the rivers due to local sea level rise and subsidence, inadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in the watershed area due to seismic and neotectonic activities in the region, river bed aggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwise tilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive development and population growth. Without regional cooperation among the co-riparian nations any major interbasin flood control activity is considered to be almost impossible. However, among other proposals in this paper, extensive annual dredging of the rivers, channels and creeks, and reoccupation of the abandoned channels in Bangladesh through re-excavations could still increase the water carrying capacity of the rivers. Land elevations could be increased if the dredged or excavated materials are dispersed on the flood plains, which would in turn reduce the severity of floods.     

September 2004 Flood Event in Southwestern Bangladesh: A Study of its Nature,Causes, and Human Perception and Adjustments to a New Hazard

This paper examines the nature and causes of September 2004 hazardous flood that affected the dry and drought prone southwestern region of Bangladesh. It also examines human perception of this new hazard and their methods of adjustments to its negative impacts. Field research for this study includes personal interviews of 453 victim families living in four thanas (lowest administrative units) in Jessore and Satkhira districts of southwestern Bangladesh. Findings of the study suggest that all victim respondents viewed this flood event as a natural hazard, which has caused severe damage to standing crops, fish ponds, permanent trees and homesteads, and deteriorated human health and sanitation conditions. Its long-term impacts on fish farming, soil quality degradation, as well as changing land use/land coverage are also noteworthy but yet to be adequately explored. Both perceived and scientific causes of this flood event include high rainfall for a week before the flood, unusual movement of low pressure system into the affected area, cloudy weather and low evaporation, siltation of the regional riverbeds, and rolling back of the Ganges River water through the Ichamati and Bhagirati rivers. These factors also caused hazardous flooding at the same time in the Ichamati and Bhagirati Rivers and their floodplains in the West Bengal province of India. To release the overflow of flood water inside India, the Indian border patrol breached the Ichamati river embankment in several places along Satkhira and Jessore international border which had aggravated the flood situation in the study area.     

Floods in Bangladesh: A question of disciplining the rivers

Bangladesh has been experiencing floods more frequently than ever before. Since 1947, she has been hit by extremely devastating floods in 1954, 1955, 1956, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1984, 1987, and 1988. Each year's highest flood record and damage costs have been broken by that of the subsequent year. All means of communication become paralysed. People lose food grains, domestic animals, homesteads, and lives. They remain marooned without food and drinking water until relief arrives. Despite huge spending on flood control, the intensity of the floods has been increasing. Therefore, speculation is naturally rife about the causes.The aim of this paper is to identify the factors which contribute to these devastating floods, and then to recommend an appropriate strategy for effective flood control. The geography, geology, and hydrology of Bangladesh are briefly discussed. The whole of the country is a huge river basin criss-crossed by as many as seven hundred rivers, tributaries, and distributaries, having a total length of 22 155 km.The river-beds are rendered shallow by heavy deposits of alluvial earth each year and tend easily to cause inundations. The quantum of silt carried by the river systems into Bangladesh is estimated to be 2.4 × 10⁹ tonnes/yr.Disciplining the rivers means keeping the rivers navigable all year round, removing excessive deposits of silt where they threaten to block a channel, preventing widening by erosion, contracting the width where the river is excessively wide, and last but not least, preventing construction whose eventual impact might prove harmful.Natural disasters do not respect political frontiers, nothing can stop them, but their adverse impact could be minimised. The author emphasises the need for employing the abundant cheap manpower, local materials, and indigenous technology for flood control projects.     

广东省近50年极端降水事件的时空特征及成因分析

利用广东省境内25个测站1961~2010年逐日降水资料,综合运用Mann-Kendall检验、正交分解函数和Morlet小波分析等方法,剖析了广东省极端降水的空间结构分布与时间变化特征,并从水汽辐合的角度解释了极端降水的时空特征。结果表明:全省极端降水事件的总量、频次、强度空间分布差异较大,从北到南,极端降水总量和强度增加,频次减少;全省大部分区域极端降水总量和频次都有增加的趋势;广东省极端降水受大尺度天气系统的影响,存在全区一致的多雨或少雨,但也存在东西、四周、中心以及南北的差异;极端降水空间异常可分为4个气候区(异常型),即粤东北区,粤西区,粤中部区以及粤东沿海区,各降水异常区存在20a左右的长周期、10a左右较长周期的和3~4a的短周期振荡;广东省极端降水与极端水汽辐合对应关系较好,区域内水汽辐合的改变可能是影响广东省极端降水变化的重要气候因子。     

Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework

This paper presents an outline methodology and an operational framework for assessing and mapping the risk of death or serious harm to people from flooding, covering death and physical injuries as a direct and immediate consequence of deep and/or fast flowing floodwaters (usually by drowning), and deaths and physical injuries associated with the flood event (but occurring in the immediate aftermath). The main factors that affect death or injury to people during floods include flow velocity, flow depth, and the degree to which people are exposed to the flood. The exposure potential is related to such factors as the “suddenness” of flooding (and amount of flood warning), the extent of the floodplain, people’s location on the floodplain, and the character of their accommodation. In addition, risks to people are affected by social factors including their vulnerability and behaviour. A methodology is described for estimating the likely annual number of deaths/injuries. This is based on defining zones of different flood hazard and, for each zone, estimating the total number of people located there, the proportion that are likely to be exposed to a flood, and the proportion of those exposed who are likely to be injured or killed during a flood event. The results for each zone are combined to give an overall risk for each flood cell and/or community. The objective of the research reported here is to develop a method which could be applied using a map-based approach in which flood risks to people are calculated and displayed spatially for selected areas or communities. The information needed for each part of the process is described in the paper, and the further research to provide the required information is identified.     

Patterns of Coping and Adaptation Among Erosion-Induced Displacees in Bangladesh: Implications for Hazard Analysis and Mitigation

The purpose of this research was to identify social, culturaland psychological aspects of riverbank erosion-induced displacement in the flood plainsof Bangladesh. Although considerable research has examined the social and economicimpacts of riverine hazards in Bangladesh, there has been a general neglect of associatedpsychosocial implications. The specific objectives of the study were to: (1) assess hazardawareness in relation to riverbank erosion, (2) determine the magnitude of psychologicaldistress associated with displacement, and (3) identify patterns of psychosocial copingand adaptation common to displaced persons in Bangladesh. Although displacees were foundto have a significantly higher level of distress than non-displacees, this was relatedprimarily to socioeconomic deprivation rather than to displacement per se. The findingsof this study showed that the constant threat of riverbank erosion has contributed to asubstantial disaster subculture in the riverine zones of Bangladesh. The commonly hypothesized factorssuch as loss of land and frequency and duration of displacement were notsignificantly associated with distress levels.The need to integrate into hazard analysis and mitigation studiesa social, cultural and psychological context is recommended. In Bangladesh, the poor copewith hardship and problems by relying on religion, which in turn significantlyinfluences how they perceive and interpret natural calamities. It is argued that the capacityof people to respond to environmental threats is a function of not only the physicalforces which affect them, but of indigenous social and cultural belief systems which influencehow people interpret and organize their activities. Hazard analysis and mitigation wouldbe most effective when it takes into account psychological and socio-cultural aspects ofdisasters, due to the fact that psychological distress impacts the capacity of people toachieve livelihoods, but also important social and psychological processes determine the waypeople perceive and adapt to natural hazards.     

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalaya: A Manageable Hazard?

Within the past fifteen years, glacial lake outburst floods have become an activetopic of discussion within the development community focused on Nepal. Suchfloods endanger thousands of people, hundreds of villages, and basic infrastructuresuch as trails and bridges. The flood risk is also a major impediment to hydroelectricdevelopment in several river basins. Unlike most other mountain hazards in Nepal,reducing the possibility of outburst floods is technically feasible. The first attemptwithin Nepal to reduce the hazard of one lake by artificially lowering its water levelwas partially completed in June 2000. Completing this task and beginning work onother hazardous lakes will require difficult decisions about risk by downstream residentsand substantial investment from the international aid community.     

近50 a来新疆区域与天山典型流域极端洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

以年极端洪水超标率来反映区域极端洪水, 分析了新疆区域极端洪水变化; 以年最大洪峰记录分析了天山山区主要河流极端洪水变化规律, 并用14站资料分析了天山山区气候变化特征, 讨论了天山主要河流极端洪水变化对区域气候变化的响应. 结果表明: 受气候变暖影响, 1957-2006年全疆极端洪水呈区域性加重趋势, 尤其南疆区域极端洪水明显加剧, 北疆区域也有加重趋势, 但相对较缓. 全疆及北疆、 南疆在20世纪90年代中期以来都处于洪水高发阶段. 近50 a来, 在新疆区域洪水呈加重趋势的变化背景下, 发源于天山南坡的托什干河和库玛拉克河年最大洪峰流量呈显著增加趋势, 发源于天山北坡的玛纳斯河与乌鲁木齐河年最大洪峰流量虽有增加, 但是变化趋势较缓. 以年最大洪峰流量发生转折年为界, 天山典型流域托什干河、 库玛拉克河、 玛纳斯河和乌鲁木齐河在20世纪90年代(或80年代)以来与前期相比, 呈现出相似的变化特征: 年最大洪峰流量明显增大, 年际间变化更加剧烈, 洪水年更频繁. 以年最大洪峰流量发生转折年份为界, 玛纳斯河、 托什干河和乌鲁木齐河后期的年最大洪峰集中日期较前期推迟2~9 d, 库玛拉克河却提前5 d. 玛纳斯河、 乌鲁木齐河和库玛拉克河后期的集中度较前期增加0.8%~8.3%, 托什干河减小1.1%. 1961-2010年, 新疆天山山区气温明显上升, 升温率为0.34 ℃·(10a)^-1, 1997年以后明显增暖; 天山山区降水显著增加, 增加速率15.6 mm·(10a)^-1, 同时极端降水强度增大、 频数增多. 近50 a来天山主要河流极端洪水变化与区域增温以及天山山区极端降水事件增多等有密切关系.     

1819年黄河中游极端降水:史实、特征及气候背景

据清官档案与方志记载,复原了1819年(清嘉庆二十四年)黄河中、下游大范围房屋倒塌、民田冲没、人口伤亡、黄河多处决溢等雨涝灾情图景及时空分异特征,这是在明清小冰期大气候背景下的极端气候事件和重大气象灾害.研究指出,该年黄河中游夏秋季雨期长(连阴雨)、且多大到暴雨,二级流域(汾河、渭河)6-9月份降水县区雨日高达40日以...     

Arsenic in shallow groundwater of Bangladesh: investigations from three different physiographic settings

Occurrences of arsenic (As) in the Bengal Basin of Bangladesh show close relationships with depositional environments and sediment textures. Hydrochemical data from three sites with varying physiography and sedimentation history show marked variations in redox status and dissolved As concentrations. Arsenic concentration in groundwater of the Ganges Flood Plain (GFP) is characteristically low, where high Mn concentrations indicate redox buffering by reduction of Mn(IV)-oxyhydroxides. Low DOC, \( {\text{HCO}}^{ - }_{3} \), \( {\text{NH}}^{ + }_{4} \) and high \( {\text{NO}}^{ - }_{3} \) and \( {\text{SO}}^{{2 - }}_{4} \) concentrations reflect an elevated redox status in GFP aquifers. In contrast, As concentration in the Ganges Delta Plain (GDP) is very high along with high Fe and low Mn. In the Meghna Flood Plain (MFP), moderate to high As and Fe concentrations and low Mn are detected. Degradation of organic matter probably drives redox reactions in the aquifers, particularly in MFP and GDP, thereby mobilising dissolved As. Speciation calculations indicate supersaturation with respect to siderite and vivianite in the groundwater samples at MFP and GDP, but groundwater in the GFP wells is generally supersaturated with respect to rhodochrosite. Values of log P_CO2 at MFP and GDP sites are generally higher than at the GFP site. This is consistent with Mn(IV)-redox buffering suggested at the GFP site compared to Fe(III)-redox buffering at MFP and GDP sites.     

中国西北近45a来极端低温事件及其对区域增暖的响应

利用中国西北五省(区)1960-2004年100个台站逐日最低温度资料,通过百分位法定义了不同台站的逐日极端低温阈值,对近45 a来西北地区逐年极端低温事件发生频次进行了时空诊断,并分析其同西北区域性增暖的响应.结果表明:一致性异常分布是中国西北年极端低温事件发生频次的最主要空间模态;中国西北年极端低温事件发生频次的空间分布可分为以下5个关键区:北疆区、青海北部区、西北东部区、南疆区及青南高原区;年极端低温事件发生频次除了青南高原区表现为微弱的减少趋势外,北疆区、青海北部区、西北东部区和南疆区均表现为显著的减少趋势,并且发生了突变现象.在年极端低温事件发生频次的各主要空间分区中,13～15 a和7～8 a的周期在所有分区中反映得比较清楚;年极端低温事件发生频次对西北区域性增暖呈显著负响应.     

青海省玉树旱涝态势变化规律分析

选取青海省玉树1953~2013年月降水数据,基于标准化降水指数SPI,利用频率分析、小波周期分析等方法对玉树县近61年来旱涝强度、频率分布、周期性变化等旱涝态势演变特征进行了研究。研究结果表明:(1)SPI-3、SPI-6和SPI-12三种尺度标准化降水指数对旱涝指示程度存在差别,相比大时间尺度,小时间尺度的标准化降水指数值更为分散,波动幅度更大,对干旱和洪涝的识别更为敏感。近年来,随着玉树县水土流失和沙化,当地土壤持水力程下降趋势,对干旱和洪涝较为敏感,因此玉树县可采用三种尺度标准化降水指数。(2)近61年,玉树县重旱平均发生概率为2.1%,重涝平均发生概率为1.3%。(3)未来几年,预计玉树县仍呈现偏涝趋势。(4)玉树县SPI-12以18a为主周期进行变化。     

Preventing flooding or regulating flood levels?: Case studies on perception of flood alleviation in Bangladesh

Based on a systematic sample survey among the residents of two contrasting floodplain environments - the Tista floodplain (a shallow flood area) and the Ganges-Brahmaputra floodplain (a deep flood area) - this study tests a central hypothesis that the floodplain residents of Bangladesh preferred regulation of flood levels as the main flood alleviation measure. The study found that, despite significant differences in property setting, flood hazard experience and the nature of indigenous adjustments to floods between the two sample areas, an overwhelming 95% of the respondents from each area preferred regulation of flood levels within a range of 0.3 to 2.0 m. The study attempts to provide an explanation for the popularity of regulated flood levels in the context of indigenous adjustments of floodplain crops and infrastructures tonormal flood levels in Bangladesh, which coincided with the respondents' preferred range of flood levels. The study points out that the objective of the UNDP/World Bank-sponsored embankment compartmentalization projects also coincides with this goal of regulating flood levels. However, to test the physical limitations of regulating water levels between neighbouring compartments and to assess the environmental impacts of the proposed projects, the study stresses the need for initiating environmental baseline surveys on the pilot compartmentalization project, which is located on the left bank of the Brahmaputra.     

三峡水库近20年水面蒸发量分布特征及趋势分析

水面蒸发是三峡水库水体水量损失的主要部分,是研究水库水量平衡的基本要素。收集了三峡水库沿线7个气象局近20年的水面蒸发量观测资料,通过整理和合理性检验后,对三峡水库水体的水面蒸发量以及蒸发能力在空间和时间上的分布特征和变化规律进行了分析。分析成果表明:各观测站水面蒸发量逐月变化规律均一致;水面蒸发量逐年变化呈波动性,年蒸发量在变化过程中有显著下降的趋势。空间变化特征是月水面蒸发量由上游至下游呈现多个峰值和谷值的变化;年蒸发量是库区上游站点年蒸发量偏小,沿程变化从上游沙坪坝到下游巫山逐渐增大,然后从巫山到下游巴东逐渐变小。     

Atmospheric Hazards Preparedness in Bangladesh: A Study of Warning,Adjustments and Recovery from the April 1991 Cyclone

In probabilistic terms, Bangladesh is prone, to at least one major 'tropical cyclone' every year. This situation is primarily due to the geographical location of Bangladesh in tropical Asia, and to its concave coastline and shallow continental shelf. The devastating impact of such cyclones on humans stems from a combination of intense human occupation of the area, predominance of traditional sociocultural values and religion, the precarious socioeconomic conditions of the majority of the coastal inhabitants, and the lack of a coordinated institutional disaster planning and management strategy. Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic environmental disasters during the last decade; among these events, the 1991 April cyclone was the most catastrophic in terms of both physical and human dimensions.An initial study was carried out in the coastal regions of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of 29 April 1991. This research examined the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It was found that the identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, the monitoring of the hazard event, and the dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. The present study followed up on the initial research by surveying 267 respondents with an elaborate survey instrument, focusing on the most crucial academic and planning issues identified in the 1991 study. In particular, the nature and characteristics of the cyclone preparedness of the coastal inhabitants were assessed by the study; other factors considered included rural-urban variations, mainland-island differences, the nature and role of previous knowledge, and the disaster experience.The survey results show the variety of indigenous adjustment mechanisms that help to rehabilitate the survivors; also visible are the profound roles played by the social inequality variables and the magnitude of physical vulnerability in influencing the disaster loss and recovery process. The study recommends that hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that the cyclone warning system should incorporate the human response to warnings as its constituent part, and in this way accommodating human dimensions in its operational design.     

内蒙古干旱半干旱带2012年“7·20”极端暴雨事件的特征及成因

2012年7月下旬, 处于内陆干旱-半干旱地带的内蒙古中-西部地区出现了有气象记录以来的极端降水事件, 使该区气象与气候预测面临新问题. 7月20日河套地区出现大范围暴雨天气, 其中两个台站日降水量超历史极值, 一个台站超历史阈值, 属极端天气事件. 利用常规及精细化监测资料和NCEP再分析资料对此次极端降水天气事件进行分析. 结果表明: 从天气背景看, 贝加尔湖低槽内冷空气侵入副高西侧的暖空气中, 在对流层低层激发出低涡系统, 低涡前侧的南风急流使南来水汽到达41°N以北, 并在河套地区聚集. 对流层低层水汽通量维持在8~10g·cm^-1·hPa^-1·s^-1, 大气比湿达12~17 g·kg^-1, 为极端降水事件提供了丰沛的水汽. 该事件是通过MCC强烈发展形成的, 河套西北部不断有中尺度对流系统MCS发展东移, 河套南部新生的β中尺度系统发展并入MCS中, MCS系统发展为中尺度对流复合体MCC, MCC中心的TBB值达-40~-83 ℃. 近地面雷达监测显示, 河套东北部、中部存在强雷达回波群, 回波群内对流单体中心的反射率因子均达到50~55 dbz, 构成超级对流单体. 地面上, 不断新生的中尺度辐合线长时间存在于河套东北部并促发对流性暴雨. 暴雨前期对流层低层增温作用显著, 中高层"干侵入"使大气不稳定能量进一步增加. 冷锋前暖空气强烈的上升运动促发了大气不稳定能量释放. 该事件很可能与当前全球变暖密切相关, 随着全球变暖, 北极冰量减少, 夏季风增强, 雨带北移, 使得中纬度内陆干旱-半干旱带发生前所未有的极端降水事件过程.     

Paleoproterozoic granitoids in the basement of Bangladesh: A piece of the Indian shield or an exotic fragment of the Gondwana jigsaw?

We present the first precise age for Precambrian basement rocks in Bangladesh. These lie within the Dinajpur block, located between the Indian Craton to the southwest and the Shillong Massif to the east. There are no surface outcrops and the rocks were intersected by drill holes. They consist of a suite of tonalitic and granodioritic rocks, variously deformed to granitic gneiss and intruded by younger monzogranite. A tonalite obtained at a depth of 227.48 m in drill hole BH-2 at Maddhapara, in northwestern Bangladesh, records a SHRIMP zircon ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb magmatic age of 1722 ± 6 Ma. Paleoproterozoic rocks with similar magmatic ages are unknown in the adjacent Indian blocks of the Chotanagpur Plateau (Indian Craton) or Shillong Massif. This lack of comparable ages may be due to the paucity of precise radiometric ages from the Indian terrains or, more likely, because there are real age differences, with the buried rocks at Maddhapara representing a separate and discrete microcontinental fragment (the Dinajpur block) that was trapped by the northward migration of India during Gondwana dispersal.     

Palaeoproterozoic U–Pb SHRIMP zircon age from basement rocks in Bangladesh: A possible remnant of the Columbia supercontinent

We present new U–Pb SHRIMP zircon geochronological data for basement rocks in Bangladesh, and discuss the relationship with the formation of the Columbia supercontinent. Euhedral zircons from a diorite sample yield a concordia age of 1730 ± 11 Ma, which is interpreted as the crystallization age. The Palaeoproterozoic age of the examined basement rock and the common occurrences of similar 1.7-Ga geologic units in the Central Indian Tectonic Zone and Meghalaya-Shillong Plateau in Indian Shield suggest their apparent continuation. This, together with the occurrence of similar 1.7-Ga geologic units in the Albany-Fraser belt in Australia and East Antarctica, are used to suggest that the basement rocks in Bangladesh formed towards the final stages of the assembly of the Columbia supercontinent.     

西北地区近代及历史时期气候变化趋势分析

利用小波分析、Mann-Kendall等统计方法和台站资料、历史时期气候代用资料及太阳黑子资料,分析了西北地区气候突变发生的时间及分布、与太阳活动的关系.结果表明:西北地区在气候变暖的背景下,降水增加,主要分布在新疆及河西等地,东部变化不大或略有减少;目前正处在百年尺度上太阳活动的强烈时期,树木年轮表明西北地区干湿变化除与太阳黑子周期有很好的正相关外,还存在64a变化周期.