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1.
Knowledge of the mechanisms of rain‐induced shallow landslides can improve the prediction of their occurrence and mitigate subsequent sediment disasters. Here, we examine an artificial slope's subsurface hydrology and propose a new slope stability analysis that includes seepage force and the down‐slope transfer of excess shear forces. We measured pore water pressure and volumetric water content immediately prior to a shallow landslide on an artificial sandy slope of 32°: The direction of the subsurface flow shifted from downward to parallel to the slope in the deepest part of the landslide mass, and this shift coincided with the start of soil displacement. A slope stability analysis that was restricted to individual segments of the landslide mass could not explain the initiation of the landslide; however, inclusion of the transfer of excess shear forces from up‐slope to down‐slope segments improved drastically the predictability. The improved stability analysis revealed that an unstable zone expanded down‐slope with an increase in soil water content, showing that the down‐slope soil initially supported the unstable up‐slope soil; destabilization of this down‐slope soil was the eventual trigger of total slope collapse. Initially, the effect of apparent soil cohesion was the most important factor promoting slope stability, but seepage force became the most important factor promoting slope instability closer to the landslide occurrence. These findings indicate that seepage forces, controlled by changes in direction and magnitude of saturated and unsaturated subsurface flows, may be the main cause of shallow landslides in sandy slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The extrapolation of results from field trials to larger areas of land for purposes of regional impact assessment is an important issue in geomorphology, particularly for landform properties that show high stochastic variability in space and time, such as shallow landslide erosion. It is shown in this study, that by identifying the main driver for spatial variability in shallow landslide erosion at field scales, namely slope angle, it is possible to develop a set of generic functions for assessing the impact of landslides on selected soil properties at larger spatial scales and over longer time periods. Research was conducted within an area of pastoral soft‐rock Tertiary hill country in the North Island of New Zealand that is subject to infrequent high intensity rainfall events, producing numerous landslides, most of which are smaller than several hundred square metres in size and remove soil to shallow depths. All landslides were mapped within a 0·6 km2 area and registered to a high resolution (2 m) slope map to show that few landslides occur on slopes < 20° and 95% were on slopes > 24°. The areal density of landslides from all historical events showed an approximately linear increase with slope above 24°. Integrating landslide densities with soil recovery data demonstrates that the average value of a soil property fluctuates in a ‘saw‐tooth’ fashion through time with the overall shape of the curve controlled by the frequency of landslide inducing storm events and recovery rate of the soil property between events. Despite such fluctuations, there are gradual declines of 7·5% in average total carbon content of topsoil and 9·5% in average soil depth to bedrock, since the time of forest clearance. Results have application to large‐scale sediment budget and water quality models and to the New Zealand Soil Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide initiation were determined for hillslopes with two types of bedrock, permeable sandstone and impermeable mudstone, in the Boso Peninsula, Japan. The pressure‐head response to rainfall was monitored above a slip scarp due to earlier landslides. Multiple regression analysis estimated the rainfall thresholds for landsliding from the relation between the magnitude of the rainfall event and slope instability caused by the increased pressure heads. The thresholds were expressed as critical combinations of rainfall intensity and duration, incorporating the geotechnical properties of the hillslope materials and also the slope hydrological processes. The permeable sandstone hillslope has a greater critical rainfall and hence a longer recurrence interval than the impermeable mudstone hillslope. This implies a lower potential for landsliding in sandstone hillslopes, corresponding to lower landslide activity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Landslides in forested landscapes have far-reaching implications, beyond that of just destroying the forest itself, sometimes initiating large-scale sediment disasters. Although vegetation increases slope stability through its root network, it is hard to evaluate its contribution to slope stability over a wide area. In this study, the relationship between tree height and landslide characteristics in the Ikawa catchment, central Japan, was investigated to develop a method for evaluating the effects of forest cover on slope stability over a regional extent. Catchment-wide tree height was obtained using airborne LiDAR point cloud data and used in conjunction with the root depth profile, measured for trees of various height by digging trenches. Root tensile strength per unit area of soil was calculated from individual root diameters and empirical power law equations on the relationship between root diameter and root tensile force in order to better understand the effect that tree height has on slope stability. Landslide density in the Ikawa catchment shows that landslides occur more frequently in forests with shorter trees, with occurrence decreasing as tree height increases. This is likely due to the stabilizing features of larger trees having a greater network of roots, which is supported by the general increase in total root area and the deeper penetration of root biomass into the soil as the height of trees surveyed increases. Landslide density was not solely affected by tree height, but also by slope gradient and plane curvature. Decreasing landslide occurrence and landslide area as tree height increases suggests that slope stability increases with tree height, while the random distribution of results when comparing landslide depth to tree height suggests that while tree height has an impact on relative slope stability, the landslide failure depth is independent of tree height, and thus controlled by other factors. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Landslides and runoff are dominant erosional agents in the tectonically active alpine South Westland area of New Zealand, characterized by high uplift rates and extreme orographic precipitation. Despite a high density of shallow debris slides and flows, the geomorphic imprints of deep‐seated bedrock failures are dominant and persistent. Over 50 large (>1 km2) landslides comprising rock slide[sol ]avalanches, complex rotational and rock‐block slides, wedge failures, and deep‐seated gravitational slope deformation were detected on air photos and shaded‐relief images. Major long‐term impacts on alpine rivers include (1) forced alluviation upstream of landslide dams, (2) occlusion of gorges and triggering of secondary riparian landslides, and (3) diversion of channels around deposits to form incised meandering gorges. Remnants of large prehistoric (i.e. pre‐1840) landslide deposits possibly represent the low‐frequency (in terms of total area affected yet dominant) end of the spectrum of mass wasting in the western Southern Alps. This is at odds with high erosion rates in an active erosional landscape. Large landslides appear to have dual roles of supplying and retaining sediment. The implications of these roles are that (1) previous models of (shallow) landslide‐derived sediment flux need to be recalibrated, and (2) geomorphic effects of earthquake‐induced landsliding may persist for at least 102 years. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
We examined the characteristics of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw = 7.0: focal depth=10.0 km) in forests and grasslands within two affected watersheds (Tokosegawa: 6.9 km2 and Nigorigawa: 6.1 km2) in southwestern Japan. We identified 190 landslides using aerial photographs and analyzed their sizes by geographic information system (GIS). Field investigations were conducted to obtain landslide depth, volume and residual sediment for 38 selected landslides (21 in forests and 17 in grasslands). The minimum area of detected landslides in grasslands (400 m2) was smaller than in forests (1000 m2), probably because of reduced detectability of landslides under tree cover. The ratio of total area occupied by landslides for a given range of slope gradient in the watersheds increased from 3.2% on gentle grassland slopes (10–15°) to 15.5% on steep (>45°) slopes, whereas the maximum landslide-area ratio in forest sites (7.4%) occurred on relatively gentle slopes (25–30°). Estimated landslide volume ranged from 27 to 9622 m3, based on mean depth of each landslide measured around individual landslide scars. Moreover, the volumetric ratio of landslide deposit volume to total landslide volume exceeded 100% for 48% of the landslides within forests and 35% of the landslides within grasslands. Our findings show that land cover had extensive and recognizable effects on the characteristics of landslides and resulting in-channel sediment accumulations. Resetting sediment dynamics after earthquakes associated with different land cover distributions needs to be considered within watersheds. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
In humid, forested mountain belts, bedrock landslides can harvest organic carbon from above ground biomass and soil (OCmodern) while acting to refresh the landscape surface and turnover forest ecosystems. Here the impact of landslides on organic carbon cycling in 13 river catchments spanning the length of the western Southern Alps, New Zealand is assessed over four decades. Spatial and temporal landslide maps are combined with the observed distribution and measured variability of hillslope OCmodern stocks. On average, it is estimated that landslides mobilized 7.6 ± 2.9 tC km?2 yr?1 of OCmodern, ~30% of which was delivered to river channels. Comparison with published estimates of OCmodern export in river suspended load suggests additional erosion of OCmodern by small, shallow landslides or overland flow in catchments. The exported OCmodern may contribute to geological carbon sequestration if buried in sedimentary deposits. Landslides may have also contributed to carbon sequestration over shorter timescales (<100 years). 5.4 ± 3.0 tC km?2 yr?1 of the eroded OCmodern was retained on hillslopes, representing a net‐carbon sink following re‐vegetation of scar surfaces. In addition, it was found that landslides caused rapid turnover of the landscape, with rates of 0.3% of the surface area per decade. High rates of net ecosystem productivity were measured in this forest of 94 ± 11 tC km?2 yr?1, which is consistent with rapid landscape turnover suppressing ecosystem retrogression. Landslide‐OCmodern yields and rates of turnover vary between river catchments and appear to be controlled by gradients in climate (precipitation) and geomorphology (rock exhumation rate, topographic slope). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Shallow landslides and consequent debris flows are an increasing concern in the Western Ghats of Kerala, India. Their increased frequency has been associated with deforestation and unfavourable land‐use practices in cultivated areas. In order to evaluate the influence of vegetation on shallow slope failures a physically based, dynamic and distributed hydrological model (STARWARS) coupled with a probabilistic slope stability model (PROBSTAB) was applied to the upper Tikovil River basin (55·6 km2). It was tuned with the limited evidence of groundwater conditions during the monsoon season of 2005 and validated against observed landslide activity in the hydrological year 2001–2002. Given the data poor conditions in the region some modifications to the original model were in order, including the estimation of parameters on the basis of generalized information from secondary sources, pedo‐transfer functions, empirical equations and satellite remote sensing data. Despite the poor input, the model captured the general temporal and spatial pattern of instability in the area. Sensitivity analysis proved root cohesion, soil depth and angle of internal friction as the most dominant parameters influencing slope stability. The results indicate the importance of root cohesion in maintaining stability and the critical role of the management of rubber plantations in this. Interception and evapotranspiration showed little influence on the development of failure conditions. The study also highlights the importance of high resolution digital terrain models for the accurate mechanistic prediction of shallow landslide initiation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid‐based regional slope‐stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in a case study of Yan'an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 exceptional rainstorm event. A high‐resolution DEM, soil parameters from in‐situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain‐gauge‐corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty‐five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m, 200 m2 and 1000 m3, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (FS) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to represent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with FS < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percentage of the area with FS < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty‐four hours after the rainstorm, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land‐use planning at the regional scale. Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Landslide erosion is a dominant hillslope process and the main source of stream sediment in tropical, tectonically active mountain belts. In this study, we quantified landslide erosion triggered by 24 rainfall events from 2001 to 2009 in three mountainous watersheds in Taiwan and investigated relationships between landslide erosion and rainfall variables. The results show positive power‐law relations between landslide erosion and rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall, with scaling exponents ranging from 2·94 to 5·03. Additionally, landslide erosion caused by Typhoon Morakot is of comparable magnitude to landslide erosion caused by the Chi‐Chi Earthquake (MW = 7·6) or 22–24 years of basin‐averaged erosion. Comparison of the three watersheds indicates that deeper landslides that mobilize soil and bedrock are triggered by long‐duration rainfall, whereas shallow landslides are triggered by short‐duration rainfall. These results suggest that rainfall intensity and watershed characteristics are important controls on rainfall‐triggered landslide erosion and that severe typhoons, like high‐magnitude earthquakes, can generate high rates of landslide erosion in Taiwan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The volumes, rates and grain size distributions of sediment supplied from hillslopes represent the initial input of sediment delivered from upland areas and propagated through sediment routing systems. Moreover, hillslope sediment supply has a significant impact on landscape response time to tectonic and climatic perturbations. However, there are very few detailed field studies characterizing hillslope sediment supply as a function of lithology and delivery process. Here, we present new empirical data from tectonically‐active areas in southern Italy that quantifies how lithology and rock strength control the landslide fluxes and grain size distributions supplied from hillslopes. Landslides are the major source of hillslope sediment supply in this area, and our inventory of ~2800 landslides reveals that landslide sediment flux is dominated by small, shallow landslides. We find that lithology and rock strength modulate the abundance of steep slopes and landslides, and the distribution of landslide sizes. Outcrop‐scale rock strength also controls the grain sizes supplied by bedrock weathering, and influences the degree of coarsening of landslide supply with respect to weathering supply. Finally, we show that hillslope sediment supply largely determines the grain sizes of fluvial export, from catchments and that catchments with greater long‐term landslide rates deliver coarser material. Therefore, our results demonstrate a dual control of lithology on hillslope sediment supply, by modulating both the sediment fluxes from landslides and the grain sizes supplied by hillslopes to the fluvial system. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
A model‐based method is proposed for improving upon existing threshold relationships which define the rainfall conditions for triggering shallow landslides but do not allow the magnitude of landsliding (i.e. the number of landslides) to be determined. The SHETRAN catchment‐scale shallow landslide model is used to quantify the magnitude of landsliding as a function of rainfall return period, for focus sites of 180 and 45 km2 in the Italian Southern Alps and the central Spanish Pyrenees. Rainfall events with intensities of different return period are generated for a range of durations (1‐day to 5‐day) and applied to the model to give the number of landslides triggered and the resulting sediment yield for each event. For a given event duration, simulated numbers of landslides become progressively less sensitive to return period as return period increases. Similarly, for an event of given return period, landslide magnitude becomes less sensitive to event duration as duration increases. The temporal distribution of rainfall within an event is shown to have a significant impact on the number of landslides and the timing of their occurrence. The contribution of shallow landsliding to catchment sediment yield is similarly quantified as a function of the rainfall characteristics. Rainfall intensity–duration curves are presented which define different levels of landsliding magnitude and which advance our predictive capability beyond, but are generally consistent with, published threshold curves. The magnitude curves are relevant to the development of guidelines for landslide hazard assessment and forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Emplacement of a giant submarine slide complex, offshore of South Kona, Hawaii Island, was investigated in 2001 by visual observation and in-situ sampling on the bench scarp and a megablock, during two dives utilizing the Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Kaiko and its mother ship R/V Kairei. Topography of the bench scarp and megablocks were defined in 3-D perspective, using high-resolution digital bathymetric data acquired during the cruise. Compositions of 34 rock samples provide constraints on the landslide source regions and emplacement mechanisms. The bench scarp consists mainly of highly fractured, vesiculated, and oxidized aa lavas that slumped from the subaerial flank of ancestral Mauna Loa. The megablock contains three units: block facies, matrix facies, and draped sediment. The block facies contains hyaloclastite interbedded with massive lava, which slid from the shallow submarine flank of ancestral Mauna Loa, as indicated by glassy groundmass of the hyaloclastite, low oxidation state, and low sulfur content. The matrix facies, which directly overlies the block facies and is similar to a lahar deposit, is thought to have been deposited from the water column immediately after the South Kona slide event. The draped sediment is a thin high-density turbidite layer that may be a distal facies of the Alika-2 debris-avalanche deposit; its composition overlaps with rocks from subaerial Mauna Loa. The deposits generated by the South Kona slide vary from debris avalanche deposit to turbidite. Spatial distribution of the deposits is consistent with deposits related to large landslides adjacent to other Hawaiian volcanoes and the Canary Islands.  相似文献   

15.
Sediment transport in the scoria areas of Marion Island is primarily the result of needle‐ice‐induced frost creep associated with diurnal soil frost cycles. Clasts move most rapidly in ?ne textured areas (532 mm a?1; SD 382), more slowly in stony areas (161 mm a?1; SD 179), and most slowly in blocky areas (26 mm a?1; SD 23). Movement rates increase with increasing frost susceptibility of sediments, slope angle and altitude. The heave of dowels indicates that frost heave is active in all the scoria areas examined. The depth of effective frost heave increases with increasing altitude, with frost heave being restricted to the upper 100 mm of the soil in low altitude areas (<200 m). The heave of 150 mm dowels at the higher altitude sites provides evidence for segregation ice formation at depths greater than those associated with needle ice and diurnal soil frost cycles. Vertical movement pro?les show a concave downslope pro?le, with sediment movement rates being most rapid at the soil surface and decreasing rapidly with depth. This pro?le shape is typical of areas dominated by diurnal freeze–thaw cycles and needle ice. The capture of sediments moving downslope in troughs and the sampling of material lifted by needle ice, suggest that sediment transport by needle ice under present conditions is extremely effective. Observations suggest that although both ?ne material and clasts are transported downslope, some preferential transport of clasts occurs. Experiment results and observations of soil frost processes suggest that frost creep associated with needle ice activity is the dominant slope process in the scoria areas of Marion Island. Other slope processes such as slopewash and debris ?ows appear to play a relatively minor and localized role in sediment transport. It is suggested that needle ice activity is likely to be the dominant geomorphic agent in other areas of the Subantarctic with similar climatic characteristics to Marion Island. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide. Substantial landslides were triggered by the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008. Google Earth images of pre- and post-earthquakes show that 52 194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped, with a total landslides area of 1 021 km2.Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database, which includes area, length, and width of landslides, elevation of the scarp top and foot edge, and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope. Finally, the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven. The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area (a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan) are obviously controlled by surface rupture, terrain, and peak ground acceleration. Meanwhile, a large number of small landslides (individual landslide area less than 10 000 m2)contribute less to the total landslides area. The number of landslides larger than 10 000 m2 accounts for 38.7% of the total number of co-seismic landslides, while the area of those landslides account for 88% of the total landslides area. The 52 194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area, transport area, and accumulation area. However, based on the area-volume power-law relationship, the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide.  相似文献   

17.
Experimentally determined spatial patterns of soil redistribution across a break in slope derived using 10 rare earth element (REE) oxides as sediment tracers are presented. An erosion experiment was conducted using simulated rainfall within a laboratory slope model measuring 2·5 m wide by 6 m long with a gradient of 15° declining to 2°. Soil was tagged with multiple REE and placed in different locations over the slope and at the end of the experiment REE concentrations were measured in samples collected spatially. A new method was developed to quantify the erosion and deposition depths spatially, the relative source contributions to deposited sediment and the sediment transport distances. Particle‐size selectivity over an area of net deposition was also investigated, by combining downslope changes in particle‐size distributions with changes in sediment REE composition within a flow pathway. During the experiment, the surface morphology evolved through upslope propagation of rill headcuts, which gradually incised the different REE‐tagged zones and led to sediment deposition at the break in slope and the development of a fan extending over the shallow slope segment. The spatial patterns in REE concentrations, the derived erosion and deposition depths, the relative source contributions to deposition zones and the sediment transport distances, corroborate the morphological observations and demonstrate the potential of using REE for quantifying sediment transport processes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The first application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale, landslide erosion and sediment yield model is carried out for a major landsliding event in the upper 505 km2 of the Llobregat basin, in the eastern Spanish Pyrenees, in November 1982. The model simulates the spatial distribution of shallow landslides and their sediment yield. Acknowledging uncertainty in the model parameter evaluation, the aim of the application was not to reproduce the observed occurrence of landslides as accurately as possible with one simulation, but to bracket the observed pattern with several simulations representing uncertainty in the key input conditions. Bounds on the landslide simulations were thus determined as a function of uncertainty in the vegetation root cohesion (used in the model factor of safety calculations). The resulting upper bound considerably overestimates the observed pattern (17 000 landslides compared with an observation of around 700), but it reproduces several of the principal clusters in the observed pattern. The lower bound contains around 500 landslides. The sediment yield estimates (2670–14 630 t km?2) are comparable to measurements elsewhere in the Pyrenees for extreme events. The results demonstrate an ability to simulate the basin‐scale landslide response to a rainfall event and the resulting sediment yield. They also highlight the need for further research in setting the uncertainty bounds and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence arising in part from a current inability to model small‐scale controls for a basin of the given size. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
A comprehensive understanding of seasonal hydrological dynamics is required to describe the influence of pore‐water pressure on the stability of landslides in snowy regions. This study reports on the results of continuous meteorological and hydrological observations over 2 years on a landslide body comprising Neogene sedimentary rocks in northern Japan, where a thick (3–5 m) seasonal snowpack covers the land surface. Monitoring of the volumetric water content in shallow unsaturated zones (<0.8 m depth) and pore‐water pressure in saturated bedrock at depths of 2.0 and 5.2 m revealed clear seasonality in hydrological responses to rainfall and meltwater supply. During snow‐free periods, both the shallow soil moisture and deep pore‐water pressure responded rapidly to intense rainwater infiltration. In contrast, during snowmelt, the deep pore pressure fluctuated in accordance with the daily cycle of meltwater input, without notable changes in shallow moisture conditions. During occasional foehn events that cause intense snow melting in midwinter, meltwater flows preferentially through the layered snowpack, converging to produce a localized water supply at the ground surface. This episodically triggers a significant rise in pore‐water pressure. The seasonal differences in hydrological responses were characterized by a set of newly proposed indices for the magnitude and quickness of increases in the pressure head near the sliding surface. Under snow‐covered conditions, the magnitude of the pressure increase tends to be suppressed, probably owing to a reduction in infiltration caused by a seasonal decrease in the permeability of surface soils, and effective pore‐water drainage through the highly conductive colluvial layer. Deep groundwater flow within bedrock remained in a steady upwelling state, enhanced by increasing moisture in shallow soils under snow cover, reflecting the convergence of subsurface water from surrounding hillslopes.  相似文献   

20.
Sediment production, transport and yield were quantified over various timescales in response to rainfall and runoff within an alluvial gully (7 · 8 ha), which erodes into dispersible sodic soils of a small floodplain catchment (33 ha) along the Mitchell River, northern Australia. Historical air photographs and recent global positioning system (GPS) surveys and LiDAR data documented linear increases in gully area and volume, indicating that sediment supply has been relatively consistent over the historic period. Daily time lapse photography of scarp retreat rates and internal erosion processes also demonstrated that erosion from rainfall and runoff consistently supplied fine washload (< 63 µm) sediment in addition to coarse lags of sand bed material. Empirical measurements of suspended sediment concentrations (10 000 to >100 000 mg/L) and sediment yields (89 to 363 t/ha/yr) were high for both Australian and world data. Total sediment yield estimated from empirical washload and theoretical bed material load was dominated by fine washload (< 63 µm). A lack of hysteresis in suspended sediment rating curves, scarp retreat and sediment yield correlated to rainfall input, and an equilibrium channel outlet slope supported the hypothesis that partially or fully transport‐limited conditions predominated along the alluvial gully outlet channel. This is in contrast to sediment supply‐limited conditions on uneroded floodplains above gully head scarps. While empirical data presented here can support future modelling efforts to predict suspended sediment concentration and yield under the transport limiting situations, additional field data will also be needed to better quantify sediment erosion and transport rates and processes in alluvial gullies at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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