Correlation of JMA instrumental seismic intensity with strong motion parameters

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity (I_JMA) has been used as a measure of strong shaking for many years in Japan, and it necessitates to know the correlation between the JMA seismic intensity and other strong motion indices, e.g. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), and Spectrum Intensity (SI). In this study, two strong motion data sets were selected; in which, the first set consists of 879 three‐components non‐liquefied records selected from 13 major earthquake events that occurred in Japan, the United States, and Taiwan, and the second set consists of 17 liquefied records selected from 7 major earthquake events that occurred in Japan and the United States. The JMA seismic intensity and other ground motion indices were calculated using the selected data sets. The relationships between the JMA seismic intensity and PGA, PGV, and SI were then derived performing a two‐stage linear regression analysis. Results from the analysis show that the JMA instrumental seismic intensity shows higher correlation with SI than PGA or PGV, and it shows the highest correlation with the parameters such as the combination of PGA and SI or the product of PGA and SI. The obtained relationships are also compared with the ones obtained by other studies, which may be useful for the disaster management agencies in Japan and deployment of new SI‐sensors that monitor both PGA and SI. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion prediction equation considering combined dataset of recorded and simulated ground motions

Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3–8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal–India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs.     

On the use of JMA intensity in earthquake early warning systems

The estimation of strength of shaking at a site from the initial P-wave portion of ground motion is the key problems for shortening the alert time of the earthquake Early Warning (EEW). The most of the techniques proposed for the purpose utilize (a) ground motion models based on the estimated magnitude and hypocentral distance, or (b) the interim proxies, such as initial vertical displacement P _d . We suggest the instrumental Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity (JMA_I) as a characteristic for fast estimation of damage potential in the EEW systems. We investigated the scaling relations between JMA_I measured using the whole earthquake recordings (overall intensity) and using particular time intervals of various duration (2.0–8.0 s) starting from the P-wave arrival (preliminary intensity). The dataset included 3,660 records (K-NET and the KiK-net networks) from 55 events (M _W 4.1–7.4) occurred in 1999–2008 in Japan. We showed that the time interval of 4–5 s from the P-wave arrival can be used for reliable estimations of the overall intensity with the average standard error of about 0.5 JMA units. The uncertainty in the prediction may be reduced by consideration of local site conditions or by development of the station-specific models.     

Ground motion prediction equations for horizontal and vertical components of acceleration in Northern Iran

Recent studies have shown that the vertical component of ground motion can be quite destructive on a variety of structural systems. Development of response spectrum for design of buildings subjected to vertical component of earthquake needs ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The existing GMPEs for northern Iranian plateau are proposed for the horizontal component of earthquake, and there is not any specified GMPE for the vertical component of earthquake in this region. Determination of GMPEs is mostly based on regression analyses on earthquake parameters such as magnitude, site class, distance, and spectral amplitudes. In this study, 325 three-component records of 55 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from M _w 4.1 to M _w 7.3 are used for estimation on the regression coefficients. Records with distances less than 300 km are selected for analyses in the database. The regression analyses on earthquake parameters results in determination of GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for both horizontal and vertical components of the ground motion. The correlation between the models for vertical and horizontal GMPEs is studied in details. These models are later compared with some other available GMPEs. According to the result of this investigation, the proposed GMPEs are in agreement with the other relationships that were developed based on the local and regional data.     

Earthquake ground motion predictive equations for Garhwal Himalaya,India

Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤M_w≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (M_w=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region.     

Intensity attenuation in the Campania region,Southern Italy

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M _w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.     

Determination of GMPE functional form for an active region with limited strong motion data: application to the Himalayan region

Advancement in the seismic networks results in formulation of different functional forms for developing any new ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for a region. Till date, various guidelines and tools are available for selecting a suitable GMPE for any seismic study area. However, these methods are efficient in quantifying the GMPE but not for determining a proper functional form and capturing the epistemic uncertainty associated with selection of GMPE. In this study, the compatibility of the recent available functional forms for the active region is tested for distance and magnitude scaling. Analysis is carried out by determining the residuals using the recorded and the predicted spectral acceleration values at different periods. Mixed effect regressions are performed on the calculated residuals for determining the intra- and interevent residuals. Additionally, spatial correlation is used in mixed effect regression by changing its likelihood function. Distance scaling and magnitude scaling are respectively examined by studying the trends of intraevent residuals with distance and the trend of the event term with magnitude. Further, these trends are statistically studied for a respective functional form of a ground motion. Additionally, genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo method are used respectively for calculating the hinge point and standard error for magnitude and distance scaling for a newly determined functional form. The whole procedure is applied and tested for the available strong motion data for the Himalayan region. The functional form used for testing are five Himalayan GMPEs, five GMPEs developed under NGA-West 2 project, two from Pan-European, and one from Japan region. It is observed that bilinear functional form with magnitude and distance hinged at 6.5 M _w and 300 km respectively is suitable for the Himalayan region. Finally, a new regression coefficient for peak ground acceleration for a suitable functional form that governs the attenuation characteristic of the Himalayan region is derived.     

Ground-motion prediction equations for interface earthquakes of M7 to M9 based on empirical data from Japan

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have a major impact on seismic hazard estimates, because they control the predicted amplitudes of ground shaking. The prediction of ground-motion amplitudes due to mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones has been hampered by a paucity of empirical ground-motion data for the very large magnitudes (moment magnitude (M) $>$ 7) of most interest to hazard analysis. Recent data from Tohoku M9.0 2011 earthquake are important in this regard, as this is the largest well-recorded subduction event, and the only such event with sufficient data to enable a clear separation of the overall source, path and site effects. In this study, we use strong-ground-motion records from the M9 Tohoku event to derive an event-specific GMPE. We then extend this M9 GMPE to represent the shaking from other M $>$ 7 interface events in Japan by adjusting the source term. We focus on events in Japan to reduce ambiguity that results when combining data in different regions having different source, path and site effect attributes. Source levels (adjustment factors) for other Japanese events are determined as the average residuals of ground-motions with respect to the Tohoku GMPE, keeping all other coefficients fixed. The mean residuals (source terms) scale most steeply with magnitude at the lower frequencies; this is in accord with expectations based on overall source-scaling concepts. Interpolating source terms over the magnitude range of 7.0–9.0, we produce a GMPE for large interface events of M7–M9, for NEHRP B/C boundary site conditions (time-averaged shear-wave velocity of 760 m/s over the top 30 m) in both fore-arc and back-arc regions of Japan. We show how these equations may be adjusted to account for the deeper soil profiles (for the same value of $\hbox {V}_\mathrm{S30})$ in western North America. The proposed GMPE predicts lower motions at very long periods, higher motions at short periods, and similar motions at intermediate periods, relative to the simulation-based GMPE model of Atkinson and Macias (2009) for the Cascadia subduction zone.     

Peak ground motion predictions in India: an appraisal for rock sites

Proper selection and ranking of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) is critical for successful logic-tree implementation in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The present study explores this issue in predicting peak ground accelerations at the rock sites in India. Macroseismic intensity data complemented with limited strong ground-motion recordings are used for the purpose. The findings corroborate the possible conformity between the GMPEs developed for tectonically active shallow crust across the globe. On the other hand, the relevant GMPEs in the intraplate regions cluster into two different groups with the equations of lower ranks catering to higher ground motions. The earthquakes in the subduction zones have significant regional implications. However, affinity in the ground-motion attenuations between the major interface events (M _W > 7.4) in Andaman-Nicobar, Japan and Cascadia, respectively, is noted. This can be also observed for the intraslab events in the Hindukush and Taiwan respectively. Overall, we do not observe any significant advantage with the equations developed using the regional data. These findings are expected to be useful in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis across the study region.     

Rating damage potential of ground motion records

In this study, a total of 115,246 ground motions recorded during earthquakes of Moment magnitudes ranging from M_w 5.0 to M_w 9.0 are analyzed statistically. A total of 21 ground motion parameters characterising the recorded acceleration time histories are used in the analysis. Classification of these parameters through statistical correlation is reported and a parameter called "distance from zero-amplitude axis," or d_Z-A, is formulated in the principal component space. The ability for d_Z-A to rate the damage potentials of strong motion records is evaluated through correlation of d_Z-A with Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) instrumental seismic intensities. This parameter can be used to rate damage potential of any strong motion record irrespective of the magnitude and location of the earthquake. It can also be used in selecting ground motion records of appropriate damage potential in seismic design and probabilistic analysis.     

Empirical model for estimating Fourier amplitude spectra of ground acceleration in Taiwan region

A collection of ground‐motion recordings (1070 acceleration records) of moderate (5.1⩽M_L⩽6.5) earthquakes obtained during the execution of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) since 1991 was used to study source scaling model and attenuation relations for a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and distances and to verify the models developed recently for the Taiwan region. The results of the analysis reveal that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S‐wave arrival, can be modelled accurately using the Brune's ω‐squared source model with magnitude‐dependent stress parameter Δσ, that should be determined using the recently proposed regional relationships between magnitude (M_L) and seismic moment (M₀) and between M₀ and Δσ. The anelastic attenuation Q of spectral amplitudes with distance may be described as Q=225 ƒ^1.1 both for deep (depth more than 35 km) and shallow earthquakes. The source scaling and attenuation models allow a satisfactory prediction of the peak ground acceleration for magnitudes 5.1⩽M⩽6.5 and distances up to about 200 km in the Taiwan region, and may be useful for seismic hazard assessment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing predicted and observed ground motions from subduction earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles

This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction for the Lesser Antilles.     

Peak ground accelerations from large (<Emphasis Type="Bold">M</Emphasis> ≥ 7.2) shallow crustal earthquakes: a comparison with predictions from eight recent ground-motion models

Strong-motion data from large (M ≥ 7.2) shallow crustal earthquakes invariably make up a small proportion of the records used to develop empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Consequently GMPEs are more poorly constrained for large earthquakes than for small events. In this article peak ground accelerations (PGAs) observed in 38 earthquakes worldwide with M ≥ 7.2 are compared with those predicted by eight recent GMPEs. Well over half of the 38 earthquakes were not considered when deriving these GMPEs but the data were identified by a thorough literature review of strong-motion reports from the past 60 years. These data are provided in an electronic supplement for future investigations on ground motions from large earthquakes. The addition of these data provides better constraint of the between-event ground-motion variability in large earthquakes. It is found that the eight models generally provide good predictions for PGAs from these earthquakes, although there is evidence for slight under- or over-prediction of motions by some models (particularly for M > 7.6). The between-event variabilities predicted by most models match the observed variability, if data from two events (2001 Bhuj and 2005 Crescent City) that are likely atypical of earthquakes in active regions are excluded. For some GMPEs there is evidence that they are over-predicting PGAs in the near-source region of large earthquakes as well as over-predicting motions on hard rock. Overall, however, all the considered models, despite having been derived using limited data, provide reliable predictions of PGAs in the largest crustal earthquakes.     

不同类型俯冲带地震水平向地震动阻尼修正系数对比研究

基于日本KiK-Net、K-Net地震台网和太平洋地震工程中心（PEER）的14 713条地震动记录,比较了俯冲带地区浅壳上地幔地震、板内地震和板间地震的水平向地震动加速度反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）和位移反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）的差异,并进行了5%置信水平下的假设检验,探究了俯冲带地区不同地震类型对DMF的影响。结果显示:在大多数谱周期,不同地震类型的DMF存在统计意义上的显著差异;在低阻尼比中短周期时,加速度谱DMF和位移谱DMF基本相同;在高阻尼比长周期时,不同地震类型的加速度谱DMF差异大于位移谱DMF差异。研究表明:俯冲带地震水平向地震动DMF需要考虑不同地震类型的影响。     

Empirical correlation of PGA,spectral accelerations and spectrum intensities from active shallow crustal earthquakes

Empirical correlation equations between peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration, spectrum intensity, and acceleration spectrum intensity are developed. The correlation equations are developed for shallow crustal earthquakes using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground motion database, and four of the NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). A particularly novel aspect of the present study is the explicit consideration of epistemic uncertainty in the correlation equations due to both the adopted ground motion database and GMPEs. The resulting correlation equations enable the joint consideration of these four ground motion intensity measures in ground motion selection using frameworks such as the generalized conditional intensity measure approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

俯冲带地震动特征及其衰减规律探讨

随着我国南海不断开发建设,海洋工程的抗震问题日益受到重视.我国南海东部区域位于大陆板块与海洋板块共同作用的俯冲带地区,地震活动频繁,震级较大,潜在地震对南海开发建设有重要影响.为了研究俯冲带地震的地震动特征及其衰减规律,本文基于实际俯冲带地震数据,并结合数值模拟方法,分析和探讨了俯冲带板内、板缘地震与浅地壳地震的地震动特征和衰减规律的差异.研究结果表明:俯冲带地震动存在区域性差异,在地震动衰减特征方面,同一区域的俯冲带板缘地震要比浅地壳地震衰减慢,俯冲带板内地震要比浅地壳地震衰减得快;数值模拟分析不同深度海水对海底地震动的影响表明,海底地震动水平分量几乎不受海水介质的影响,但是竖向分量随海水深度的增加有减小的趋势.最终,基于数值模拟和经验关系的混合方法建立了南海俯冲带地震动衰减关系模型,其结果可为海域区划等相关研究和海域工程建设提供参考.     

Partially non-ergodic region specific GMPE for Europe and Middle-East

The ergodic assumption considers the time sampling of ground shaking generated in a given region by successive earthquakes as equivalent to a spatial sampling of observed ground motion across different regions. In such cases the estimated aleatory variability in source, propagation, and site seismic processes in ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is usually larger than with a non-ergodic approach. With the recently published datasets such as RESORCE for Europe and Middle-East regions, and exploiting algorithms like the non-linear mixed effects regression it became possible to introduce statistically well-constrained regional adjustments to a GMPE, thus ‘partially’ mitigating the impact of the assumption on regional ergodicity. In this study, we quantify the regional differences in the apparent attenuation of high frequency ground motion with distance and in linear site amplification with V_s30, between Italy, Turkey, and rest of the Europe-Middle-East region. With respect to a GMPE without regional adjustments, we obtain up to 10 % reduction in the aleatory variability σ, primarily contributed by a 20 % reduction in the between-station variability. The reduced aleatory variability is translated into an epistemic uncertainty, i.e. a standard error on the regional adjustments which can be accounted for in the hazard assessment through logic-tree branches properly weighted. Furthermore, the between-event variability is reduced by up to 30 % by disregarding in regression the events with empirically estimated moment magnitude. Therefore, we conclude that a further refinement of the aleatory variability could be achieved by choosing a combination of proxies for the site response, and through the homogenization of the magnitude scales across regions.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Ground-motion characterization for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Turkey

This study describes the methodology implemented to establish the ground-motion logic-tree for national probabilistic seismic hazard map of Turkey for shallow active crustal regions. The presented procedure provides quantitative information to guide the hazard experts while establishing the logic tree to capture the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion characterization. It uses non-data-driven and data-driven testing methods to identify and rank candidate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) under a specific ground-motion database. The candidate GMPEs are subjected to visual inspection and are classified into center, body and range (CBR) spectral estimates for a proper consideration of epistemic uncertainty. The GMPEs classified into CBR are then used in a suite of seismic hazard sensitivity analysis to establish the most suitable GMPE logic-tree whose spectral estimates are not biased by any one of the GMPEs in the logic-tree structure. The sensitivity analysis considers normalized spectral ordinates and is not manipulated by the spectral amplitudes. The proposed procedure is inherited from the relevant studies of the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME; www.efehr.org:8080/jetspeed/portal/emme.psml) regional seismic hazard project. This paper also highlights the similarities and differences in ground-motion characterization between EMME and our approach.     

Seismic response analysis on the stability of running vehicles

The seismometer network of the Japanese expressway system has been enhanced since the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Using earthquake information from the instruments, the expressways are closed if the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is larger than or equal to 80cm/s². The aim of this regulation is to avoid secondary disasters, e.g. cars running into the collapsed sections. However, recent studies on earthquake damage have revealed that expressway structures are not seriously damaged under such‐level of earthquake motion. Hence, we may think of relaxing the regulation of expressway closure. But before doing this, it is necessary to examine the effects of shaking to automobiles since the drivers may encounter difficulties in controlling their vehicles and traffic accidents may occur. In this study, a vehicle was modelled with a six‐degree‐of‐freedom system and its responses were investigated with respect to PGA, peak ground velocity (PGV) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity using five ground motion records. It was observed that the response of the vehicle shows a larger amplitude for the record that has larger response spectrum in the long period range compared to other records. However, similar response amplitudes of the vehicle were observed for all the records with respect to the JMA seismic intensity. The response characteristics of the vehicle model may be very useful for decision‐making regarding the relaxation of the expressway closure under seismic motion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.