Spaces of unintended consequences: The Ground Safety Zone in Kosovo

In the spring of 1999 NATO conducted a 79-day air campaign against Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) to force that country to cease the ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albanians and to force the withdrawal of Yugoslavian forces from the province. In June of 1999 a NATO led military force (KFOR or Kosovo Force) entered Kosovo to reestablish a safe and secure environment. Shortly thereafter ethnic Albanian armed extremists groups launched an insurgency in the neighboring Presevo Valley of Southern Serbia in a bid to join the predominantly ethnic Albanian population of that area with Kosovo. The rebels used the five-kilometer wide Ground Safety Zone, established by NATO, as a sanctuary from which to attack Serb police and military units. NATO and KFOR found themselves in the predicament of having to halt this insurgency while maintaining the peace in Kosovo. This paper provides a case study in applied political geography that examines the unintended consequences of creating an uncontrolled political and security space in the midst of a zone of conflict. Additionally, this paper will present a revised application of the concept of Peace Geography for the Post Cold War Era. Peace Geography involves the elements of association, disassociation, and isolation. These elements proved to be critical in bringing the Presevo Valley Insurrection to a peaceful conclusion, and this revised and updated peace geography shows great promise for future peacekeeping operations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

China: population change and population control

Since 1949 China's population has increased by 500 million and thereby grown at an average rate of 2 % per year. Annual growth rates have varied dramatically, falling from 3.3 % in 1963 to 1.2 % in 1979 and registering a population decline of 13.5 million in the famine years of 1960/61. China's demographic disaster in 1958/61 ranks as one of the most devastating in the history of the world. Chinese leaders have oscillated between pro- and anti-natalist policies. However, in the 1970s the government launched its third, its most intensive and to date its most successful family planning programme. So succesful that the total fertility rate declined from 6.4 in 1968 to 2.2 in 1980 and the level of contraceptive use in China was raised to the levels currently experienced in the Developed World. Despite the high rate of contraceptive prevalence, induced abortion is still extensively used to prevent unplanned births. The extent to which China's birth control programme has been implemented on a voluntary, coercive or compulsory basis is open to question. A rapid increase in the age of marriage and a substantial improvement in female education have made important contributions to the decline in fertility. Large differences in fertility exist between rural and urban China, reflecting significant differences in the average age of marriage and the very marked difference in educational attainment between the cities and the countryside. Whether the government directed family planning programme or socio-economic development has had the greatest impact on the decline in fertility, is under discussion. Whatever the motive force, the pace of demographic modernisation has been impressive and by international standards China now enjoys advanced levels of demographic development at an early stage of economic development.Abbreviations CMP-SPRCP-75-114 China Mainland Press, Survey of People's Republic of China Press 1975, No. 114. - FBIS-CHI-83-112 Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, China, 1983, No. 112. - JPRS-CPS-85-012 Joint Publications Research Service, China Report, Political, Sociological and Military Affairs, 1985, No. 12. - SWB/FE/6246/BII Summary of World Broadcast, Far East, No. 6246, section BII.     

Gypsies in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic: Geographic and demographic characteristics

Geographic and demographic characteristics of Gypsies were elaborated on the basis of population census' results in 1970 and 1980. In 1980, there were about 300 000 of Gypsies in Czechoslovakia (2% of the total population). The fast numerical growth of Gypsies becomes a subject of increasing interest of both specialists and large public. According to the prognosis till 2005, in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic will be about 495 000 of Gypsies (3% of the total population). The spatial structure of Gypsies is very uneven, they are concentrated mainly in the East Slovakian districts. The differences between Gypsies and other inhabitants in the demographic behaviour are evident from the age structure. Gypsies are demographically young population with the progressive type of the age structure (high proportion of children and low proportion of the aged). Gypsy women have a high level of fertility during the whole childbearing period. The number of live born children per one Gypsy woman was 6,0 in the age group 45–49 (total population 2,3) in 1980. The effort has been made to estimate the expectation of life of Gypsies on the basis of results from population census 1970 and 1980. The probability of death was derived from the probability of survival between 1970 and 1980. In the period 1971–1980 the expectation of life at birth of Gypsy men was 55,3 years and 59,5 years for Gypsy women. The level of life expectancy like this we can find in developing countries of the Third World. Changes in the demographic behaviour occur as permanent changes only on the basis of the overall social and economic development. The consequences of this development appear usually after a certain delay, measured by the length of generation, not by calendar years.     

The cities of Russia: some recent trends and experience of regional and urban planning

The author examines the recent situation in the development of cities in Russia. Recent trends include a lack of growth and even a decrease in population; extensive economic restructuring; a grave ecological situation in cities; and recent peculiarities in the geopolitical situation and population migration. Due to the new economic, demographic, geopolitical and social situation in Russia it is necessary to re-evaluate the prospects for the development and growth of the big cities in this country. The system of basic documents for regional and city planning in the former USSR and in Russia includes different stages: from The General Scheme for the Settlement Systems of the Country and The Regional Territorial Complex Schemes of Environmental Protection in different regions to the detailed plans for the different parts of cities and towns. The shortcomings of this system and in the process of the realization of the schemes of regional planning and general plans for cities are documented.     

Vulnerability to natural disasters in Serbia: spatial and temporal comparison

The frequency of natural disasters and the extent of their consequences at a global level are constantly increasing. This trend is partially caused by increased population vulnerability, which implies the degree of population vulnerability due to high-magnitude natural processes. This paper presents an analysis of vulnerability to natural disaster in Serbia in the second half of the twentieth and the early twenty-first century. Vulnerability changes were traced on the basis of demographic–economic indicators derived from statistical data for local government units (municipalities) provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Calculations were performed in the geographical information system environment. The results of the study show that spatial and temporal vulnerability variations are causally correlated with changes in the selected components. Significant rise of vulnerability is related to urban areas, while lower values are characteristic for other areas of Serbia; this is primarily a consequence of different population density.     

Soil sealing,population structure and the socioeconomic context: a local-scale assessment

In the most recent decades European urban regions underwent functional changes reflecting heterogeneous land-use patterns and specific urban footprints. Several mono-centric cities shifted towards a scattered development with impact on the socio-spatial structure. Discontinuous expansion determined, in some cases, a net increase in land consumption. Using a multivariate exploratory approach, the present study analyzes the spatial relationships between 14 morphological variables and 22 socioeconomic indicators in Rome’s province. The aim of this study was to identify the demographic and socioeconomic indicators most associated to the transition from a mono-centric and semi-compact morphology towards a more dispersed settlement structure based on different sealing profiles observed at the local scale. Four groups of socioeconomic indicators (population structure, job market, economic specialization and settlement characteristics) associated to different sealing profiles (low, medium and high imperviousness) were identified and local municipalities classified accordingly. Although the urban–rural axis maintains an important role in the spatial organization of Rome’s province, other variables were found associated to areas with moderately low imperviousness, evidencing a specific demographic structure and persisting socioeconomic disparities at the base of the settlement model observed at the regional scale.     

Post-independence population planning and social development in Singapore

The unique and remarkable post-independence demographic transition of Singapore, from high to low growth, has been accompanied by an equally spectacular social transformation. Both population control and social change have a positive impact on the fertility trend. Singapore's population policy has been dictated much by the crisis consciousness of the leadership which has been able to create a high degree of awareness among its population with regard to fertility.Ironically, public response to the government's population control has been too successful, particularly so among the upper-income groups. This has recently prompted the government to examine the sustained low fertility rate which, if unchecked, will bear serious social, economic, political and defence consequences in 20 to 30 years time. The aim of the current fertility campaign is to reachieve the replacement level, first reached in 1975, through the correction of the lopsided procreation pattern. As such, some disincentives have remained or been removed, while several new incentives and measures have been introduced. Observations are made with regard to the future fertility trends.     

Recovery from demographic shock in the New Länder of Germany

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children.     

挖掘吉林省水资源潜力，解决水资源紧缺问题

吉林省是一个水资源紧缺的省份。随着社会经济进一步发展，人口不断增加和城市化进程加快，未来水资源的供城矛盾将日趋尖锐，供水紧缺已成为全省经济和社会发展的重要制约因素。为了充分挖掘全省水资源开发的潜力，解决水资源紧缺问题，该文按不同地区，从实际出发，有针对性地提出了现实的，应急的对策，同时也提出了许多对全省有长远战略意义和创新性的技术对策。如洪水资源的开发和修建地下水库等建议即是。     

Structural impact of international tourism in Yugoslavia

This paper outlines the structure of international tourism in Yugoslavia and then discusses thevarious impacts its development has had, notably changes in the population structure. The growth of international tourism has enabled a nontraumatic restructuring of the younger generation island and coastal population away from fishing and farming to employment in tourism. Tourism has revived some Yugoslav regions, especially the Adriatic Coast, in a demographic and economic sense and has made possible further development.     

淄博市城市建设用地扩展及影响机制研究

以山东省淄博市1981-2005年城市建设用地统计数据为研究基础,运用主成分分析法和定性分析法,研究该地区城市建设用地扩展的特征和影响机制。1980年以来淄博市城市建设用地分为平稳扩展、加速扩展和快速扩展3个时期。淄博市城市建设用地扩展的主要影响因素是制度改革、经济发展和人口增长。国家财税、土地等制度改革影响了经济的发展,而经济发展是城市建设用地扩展的根本驱动力。     

Population and resource crisis: A Kenyan case study

In recent years the population/development debate has shifted to consideration of the adequacy of resources to meet the accelerating population growth especially in developing countries. In the second area of concern the problem has been the adverse impact of the rate of population growth on availability of land.The history of Kenya's population growth clearly shows a steep rise from just after World War II to the late 1970s. In quantitative terms the rate of population growth has increased from just about 2% per annum to almost 4% per annum. The cause of the accelerated growth of population lies in the rising fertility and in particular to the sharp reduction in mortality and foetal loss as a result of development process.The rise in growth rate has taken place at different rates in accordance with limited areas of medium and low potential land. The implications of the spatial differential rates of growth include a significant decline in land availability and acceleration in the rate of soil loss. Equally more important is pressure on available water and wood fuel resources.In terms of policy options, Kenya must accommodate itself to continued acceleration of population growth and increasing pressure on land resources. The policy options include a rise of land in the main productive heartland of the country and water management policy that will permit an enlargement of agricultural land in the semi-arid and arid zones which constitute almost 2/3 of the land area. However, a permanent solution must rely in development of human resources and in the moderation of population growth.     

Management of karst aquifers in Serbia for water supply

Karst aquifers represent one of the main sources of water supply in Serbia. Wide distributions of karstic areas, abundant reserves, and excellent quality of karst groundwater have been the reasons for its extensive use in water supply systems throughout the country. In Serbia, 70 karstic sources have been tapped for centralized water supply, with the assessed minimal capacity exceeding 4.5 m³/s. Most of the large cities of Eastern and Western Serbia currently use karst groundwater for water supply; however, due to unstable flow regime when only natural springflow is tapped, numerous problems arise during the recession period (summer–autumn). During the last two decades, after favorable conditions had been confirmed through hydrogeological survey and feasibility studies, several newly constructed systems for artificial control of karst aquifers (mostly in Eastern Serbia) resulted in significantly improved water supply.     

Selenium deficiency as a consequence of human activity and its correction

Problems of sustainable development in connection with the change of biogeochemical cycle of selenium and overcoming its deficiency in Russia, Serbia, Belarus and other countries are reported. The history of the biological role of selenium as an essential trace element is discussed. A special program of «Overcoming of selenium deficiency» has been developed by researches of Russia, Serbia and Belarus in view of high morbidity rates for cardiovascular, tumor and endemic diseases affecting the population of both the above and some other countries, including children, prevalence of selenium deficiency among livestock species and aggravation of the environmental situation as a result of man-made processes.     

Drought,demography, and destitution: Crisis in the Norte Chico

Growing population pressure, limited natural resources, and recurring droughts are thought to be the chief reasons for the socio-economic backwardness in the Norte Chico region of Chile (29 to 33^o S).Droughts occur with rather high statistical frequency; in recent decades they appear to have become even more frequent. Depletion of the already scant forest resources of the area occured during the nineteenth century, when most of the wooden species were used as firewood, charcoal or fuel for settlements, mines ans smelters. Also during that century, forests and shrubs were cut down in order to make room for wheat cultivatio. At the same time as agricultural exploitaion and mining intensified, increasing sheep and goat herding contributed further to the deterioration of the environment.Disputable is the assumption that the cause of the socio-economic depression in the Norte Chico is the population pressure on limited natural resources. Census figures reveal that the region has not been growing as fast as other regions in the country and that outmigration has constituted a constant demographic drain from the area. The cause for this migration has been not so much the environmental deterioration but the perpetuation of land tenure patterns that stress latifundia and minifundia without allowing for the development of independent mid-size agricultural establishments.To a large degree the backwardness of the Norte Chico is to be blamed not so much on the unwise exploitation of the resources but on the persisting patterns of economic exploitation and social structures.     

山东省耕地变化及社会经济驱动因素分析

根据山东省2002-2008年耕地面积和社会经济发展统计数据,分析了全省耕地、人口变化趋势,利用主成分分析法通过SPSS定量分析了影响耕地变化的驱动因子,依据主成分分析的结果,重点进行了人口、经济和城市建设等因素的驱动分析。     

Spatiotemporal changes in population distribution and socioeconomic development in China from 1950 to 2010

Complex factors, including those associated with human and natural geography, have contributed to a longstanding imbalance in the relationship between population distribution and socioeconomic development in eastern and western China. Applying the population distribution structure index, the Gini coefficient of population distribution, and analysis of the movement of the population center of gravity and spatial autocorrelation, this study simultaneously analyzes the spatial characteristics of population density in China and the trends in its temporal and spatial variation from 1950 to 2010. It was found that while China’s population distribution has increasingly balanced development, the overall pattern of the spatial distribution has not changed significantly. Although the “Hu Huanyong Line” is still a valid representation of the country’s population distribution, the population distribution in parts of Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia has extended the boundary of the Hu Huanyong Line. The Chinese population has experienced a trend of movement towards the west. While the congruence between the population distribution and economic development of the country as a whole was relatively low, it was relatively high in the northeast and the relationship is steadily improving. Compared with the eastern and central regions, the western region has experienced a fluctuating and weakening trend.     

Spurts in India's population growth during the twentieth century: a spatial view

The years 1921 and 1951 have been unmarked, in the literature on the theme, as the critical divides in India's population growth since the beginning of the present century. The veracity of this observation has been tested for different parts of the country by analysing data for individual districts. While the above generalization did hold good at the all-India level, it was found true for only one-third of the districts at the disaggregated level. The relevance of the demographic transition model to India was also examined. The model did apply, in essence, to the Indian situation but its quantitative parameters as derived fropm the Western experience, were not appropriate.     

Population pressure, agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh

Sustainable agricultural growth is the key to rural system changes that include changes in rural bio-physical environment, economic infrastructure and social conditions. The present study has examined the temporal changes in 18 selected indicators of rural systems in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000, and explored the influences of demographic, market forces, environmental, institutional and technological factors inducing and mediating such changes. An analysis of 64 district level published census data showed significant increase in agricultural intensity, cropping patterns, land productivity and farm income; decline in labor and technological productivities; and major improvement in rural housing, economic and social conditions during this period. Spatially, major agricultural growth and rural development were observed in districts with high population density, less constrained environments, and better access to markets, irrigation canals, and capital loans.     

An outline of population geography of Jiangsu province,China

"Jiangsu (Kiangsu) Province [China] is located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River which divides it into two parts, South Jiangsu and North Jiangsu. The area of the province is 102,000 sq. km with a population of 60,521,114 and a density of 605 per sq. km in 1982. The area of Jiangsu is slightly larger than that of Hungary (93,000 sq. km). But the population is 5.7 times and the density of population 5.2 times larger than those of Hungary. This paper states the tendency of population growth, the geographical distribution and present condition of urban and rural population, discussing briefly the rational redistribution of [the] population of Jiangsu."