Impacts of the two types of El Niño on Pacific tropical cyclone activity

It is well known that Tropical cyclone(TC) activities over the Pacific are affected by El Nino events. In most studies El Nino phenomena have been separated into east Pacific warming(EPW) and central Pacific warming(CPW) based on the location of maximum SST anomaly. Since these two kinds of El Nino have different impacts on Pacific tropical cyclone activities, this study investigates different features of TC activities and the genesis potential index(GPI) during EPW years and CPW years. Four contrib- uting factors, i.e., the low-level absolute vorticity, the relative humidity, the potential intensity and the vertical wind shear, are exam- ined to determine which factors are most important in causing the anomalous TC activities. Our results show that during EPW years in July–August(JA0), TC activities are more frequent with stronger intensity over the Western North Pacific(WNP) and Eastern North Pacific(ENP). The maximum anomaly center of TC activities then drifts eastward significantly in September–October(SO0). However, centers of anomalous TC activity barely change from JA0 to SO0 during CPW years. In January–February–March(JFM1) of the decaying years of warming events, TC frequency and intensity both have positive anomaly over the South Pacific. The anoma- lies in EPW years have larger amplitude and wider spatial distribution than those in CPW years. These anomalous activities of TC are associated with GPI anomaly and the key factors affecting GPI anomaly for each ocean basin are quite different.     

Influences of two types of El Ni?o event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Based on the Had ISST1 and NCEP datasets,we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Ni?o event(CP-EL)and eastern Pacific El Ni?o event(EP-EL)on the Sea Surface Temperature(SST)anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean.Considering the remote ef fect of Indian Ocean warming,we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific,which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate.Results show that during the El Ni?o developing year of EP-EL,cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean.At the end of that autumn,all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events.Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs.However,considering the statistical significance,more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year.For further research,EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(EPI-EL)and CP El Ni?o accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(CPI-EL)events are classified.With the remote ef fects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies,the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific.For the EPI-EL developing year,large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May,and persist to the autumn of the El Ni?o decaying year.However,for the CPI-EL,weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Ni?o decaying spring.Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean,distinct zonal SST gradient,atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Ni?o decaying years.Specifically,the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years,can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean.The atmospheric heating caused by this precipitation anomaly emulates atmospheric Kelvin waves accompanied by low level easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific.As a result,a zonal SST gradient with a warm anomaly in the west and a cold anomaly in the east of Northwest Pacific is generated locally.Furthermore,the atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific are strengthened again in the decaying summer of EPI-EL.Af fected by the local WindEvaporation-SST(WES)positive feedback,the suppressed East Asian summer rainfall then persists to the late autumn during EPI-EL decaying year,which is much longer than that of CPI-EL.     

Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Niño

El Nio events with an eastern Pacific pattern(EP) and central Pacific pattern(CP) were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions(REOF).Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition(RSVD) analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind(SZW) anomalies and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific.A possible physical process for the CP El Ni o was proposed.For the EP El Ni o,strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone(ZCZ) centered on about 165°W.This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator.For the CP El Nio,westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific,and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific.This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator;however,there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N,which favors the warming of the north-eastern tropical Pacific.It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water(partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ) is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin,and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP El Nio.     

The Influence of El Ni?o on MJO over the Equatorial Pacific

In this paper, the influence of El Ni?o event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is studied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown that El Ni?o can reduce the intensity of MJO. The kinetic energy of MJO over the equatorial Pacific is stronger before the occurrence of the El Ni?o event, but it is reduced rapidly after El Ni?o event outbreak, and the weakened MJO even can continue to the next summer. The convection over the central-western Pacific is weakened in El Ni?o winter. The positive anomalous OLR over the central-western Pacific has opposite variation in El Ni?o winter comparing to the non-ENSO cases. The vertical structure of MJO also affected by El Ni?o event, so the opposite direction features of the geopotential height and the zonal wind in upper and lower level troposphere for the MJO are not remarkable in the El Ni?o winter and tend to be barotropic features. El Ni?o event also has an influence on the eastward propa- gation of the MJO too. During El Ni?o winter, the eastward propagation of the MJO is not so regular and unanimous and there exists some eastward propagation, which is faster than that in non-ENSO case. Dynamic analyses suggest that positive SSTA(El Ni?o case) affects the atmospheric thickness over the equatorial Pacific and then the excited atmospheric wave-CISK mode is weakened, so that the intensity of MJO is reduced; the combining of the barotropic unstable mode in the atmosphere excited by external forcing(SSTA) and the original MJO may be an important reason for the MJO vertical structure tending to be barotropic during the El Ni?o.     

Wind-forced equatorial wave dynamics of the Pacific Ocean during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 El Niño events

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The equatorial wave dynamics of interannual sea level variations between 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 El Niño events are compared using the Laboratory of...     

The Influence of Two Kinds of El Niño Events on the Strong Tropical Cyclone Generation and Strength in the Pacific Ocean

This paper focuses on the effects of two types of El Niño events on tropical cyclone activity. We classified El Niño events from 1961 to 2015 according to their sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into an eastern type and a central type. Then we selected strong tropical cyclones to statistically analyze the tropical cyclone characteristics during different events and their effects, as well as to study the possible mechanisms related to thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The tropical cyclone generation areas were found to be very similar during the two kinds of events. The average number of tropical cyclone in the eastern event is more than that in central event, and the hurricane in northeastern Pacific (HNP) has more energy than the typhoon in northwestern Pacific (TNP) in all cases. The seasonal distribution of the TNP high-incidence centers during central El Niño events is opposite to that of the HNP. The TNP accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) intensity is similar in the fall and summer, and the HNP ACE intensity in the summer is greater than that in the fall. The SSTs are consistent with the TNP and HNP movement trends. The Walker circulation intensity was strongly affected by the eastern events, but it quickly returned to its normal state, while the intensity was slightly reduced in the central events, and it slowly returned to its normal state. The vertical velocity distributions in the Pacific are different at different stages of both events, and the distributions of vertical velocity anomalies for typhoons and hurricanes are consistent.     

Variabilities of Surface Current in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

The Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package is used to better understand the variabilities of surface current transport in the Tropical Pacific Ocean from 1950 to 1999. Seasonal variation, interannual and decadal variability analyses are conducted on the three major surface currents of the Tropical Pacific Ocean: the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and the South Equatorial Current (SEC). The transport of SEC is quite larger than those of NEC and NECC. The SEC has two maximums in February and August. The NEC has a small annual variation. The NECC has a maximum in October and is very weak in March and April. All currents have remarkable interannual and decadal variabilities. The variabilities of the NEC and the SEC relate to the winds over them well, but the relationship between the NECC and the wind over it is not close. Analysis related to El Nin^-o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggests that before El Nifio (La Nin^-a) the SEC is weaker (stronger) and the NECC is stronger (weaker), after El Nifio (La Nifia) the SEC is stronger (weaker) and the SEC is weaker (stronger). There is no notable relationship between the NEC and ENSO.     

Remote forcing of Indian Ocean warming on Northwest Pacific during El Niño decaying years: a FOAM model approach

This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific (NWP) during the year of decaying El Niño. Observation data and the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone (ANWPA). Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i.e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying El Niño. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.     

Subtropical air-sea interaction and development of central Pacific El Niño

The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the Central Pacific El Nio (CP-El Nio) and has a connection with the subtropical air-sea interaction in the northeastern Pacific. After removing the influence of the Eastern Pacific El Nio, an S-EOF analysis is conducted and the leading mode shows a clear seasonal SSTA evolving from the subtropical northeastern Pacific to the tropical central Pacific with a quasi-biennial period. The initial subtropical SSTA is generated by the wind speed decrease and surface heat flux increase due to a north Pacific anomalous cyclone. Such subtropical SSTA can further influence the establishment of the SSTA in the tropical central Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. After established, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA can be strengthened by the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback, and develop into CP-El Nio. However, as the thermocline feedback increases the SSTA cooling after the mature phase, the heat flux loss and the re-versed zonal advective feedback can cause the phase transition of CP-El Nio. Along with the wind stress variability, the recharge (discharge) process occurs in the central (eastern) equatorial Pacific and such a process causes the phase consistency between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies, which presents a contrast to the original recharge/discharge theory.     

Analyzing the influences of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclone genesis with a modified genesis potential index

To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of El Niño cycle on tropical cyclones (TC) is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975–2014, we investigated the influences of two types of El Niño, the eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) and central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño), on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index (MGPI). The composites reproduced for two types of El Niño, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two El Niño types during developing summer (July–August–September) and fall (October–November–December), and decaying spring (April–May–June) and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Niño during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-El Niños during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season (January–February–March) for the two types of El Niño. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-El Niño decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-El Niño generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.

     

Events of decadal thermocline variations in the South Pacific Ocean

1 INTRODUCTION It has been suggested that interior thermal anomalies that subduct into the subtropics of the North Pacific may propagate to the equatorial region of the Pacific (Russell, 1994; Deser et al., 1996; Gu and Philander, 1997; Huang and Huang an…     

Meridional Variation of the 1955-2003 Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Associated with El Nio Events

The Sea Level Anomaly-Torque (SLAT, relative to a reference location in the Pacific Ocean), which means the total torque of the gravity forces of sea waters with depths equal to the Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is defined in this study. The time series of the SLAT from merged altimeter data (1993-2003) had a great meridional variation during the 1997-1998 El Nio event. By using historical upper layer temperature data (1955-2003) for the tropical Pacific Ocean, the tempera- ture-based SLAT is also calculated and the meridional variation can be found in the historical El Nio events (1955-2003), which suggests that the meridional shifts of the sea level anomaly are also intrinsic oscillating modes of the El Nio cycles like the zonal shifts.     

Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - Based on initial errors of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean that are most likely to induce spring predictability barrier (SPB) for the El Niño...     

Asymmetric response of the South China Sea SST to El Niño and La Niña

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated according to its relationship with El Nio/La Nia (EN/LN) using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS SST bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first SST warming/cooling peaks in December(0)-February(1) (DJF(1)) and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS SST anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN SST warm-ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August(1) (JJA(1)) and persists up to September-October(1), with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN SST cooling peaks in May(1), it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with SST and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA(1).     

Impacts of SST anomalies in the Indian-Pacific basin on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activities during three super El Ni?o years

This study investigated the impact of sea surface temperature(SST)in several important areas of the Indian-Pacific basin on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the developing years of three super El Ni?o events(1982,1997,and 2015)based on observations and numerical simulations.During the super El Ni?o years,TC intensity was enhanced considerably,TC days increased,TC tracks mostly recurved along the coasts,and fewer TCs made landfall in China.These characteristics are similar to the strong ENSO-TC relationship but further above the climatological means than in strong El Ni?o years.It indicates that super El Ni?o events play a dominant role in the intensities and tracks of WNP TCs.However,there were clear differences in both numbers and positions of TC genesis among the different super El Ni?o years.These features could be attributed to the collective impact of SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and East Indian Ocean(EIO)and the SST gradient(SSTG)between the southwestern Pacific and the western Pacific warm pool.During 2015,the EIO SSTA was extremely warm and the anomalous anticyclone in the western WNP was enhanced,resulting in fewer TCs than normal.In 1982,the EIO SSTA and spring SSTG showed negative anomalies,followed by an increased anomalous cyclone in the western WNP and equatorial vertical wind shear.This intensified the conversion of eddy kinetic energy from large-scale flows,favorable for the westward shift of TC genesis.Consequently,anomalous TC activities during the super El Ni?o years resulted mainly from combined SSTA impacts of different key areas over the Indian-Pacific basin.     

The increased storage of suspended particulate matter in the upper water of the tropical Western Pacific during the 2015/2016 super El Ni?o event

The climate variability induced by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycle drives significant changes in the physical state of the tropical Western Pacific,which has important impacts on the upper ocean carbon cycle.During 2015-2016,a super El Ni?o event occurred in the equatorial Pacific.Suspended particulate matter(SPM) data and related environmental observations in the tropical Western Pacific were obtained during two cruses in Dec.2014 and 2015,which coincided with the early and peak stages of this super El Ni?o event.Compared with the marine environments in the tropical Western Pacific in Dec.2014,an obviously enhanced upwelling occurred in the Mindanao Dome region;the nitrate concentration in the euphotic zone almo st tripled;and the size,mass concentration,and volume concentration of SPM obviously increased in Dec.2015.The enhanced upwelling in the Mindanao Dome region carried cold but eutrophic water upward from the deep ocean to shallow depths,even into the euphotic zone,which disrupted the previously N-limited conditions and induced a remarkable increase in phytoplankton blooms in the euphotic zone.The se results reveal the mechanism of how nutrient-limited ecosystems in the tropical Western Pacific respond to super El Ni?o events.In the context of the ENSO cycle,if predicted changes in biogenic particles occur,the proportion of carbon storage in the tropical Western Pacific is estimated to be increased by more than 52%,ultimately affecting the regional and possibly even global carbon cycle.This paper highlights the prospect for long-term prediction of the impact of a super El Ni?o event on the global carbon cycle and has profound implications for understanding El Ni?o events.     

Environmental anomalies in the northeastern East China Sea during the last 3 000 years: implications for El Niño activity in the Holocene

To reconstruct the productivity changes for the last 10 500 a in the northeastern East China Sea (ECS), biogenic compounds (such as carbonate, organic carbon and opal), marine micropaleontological fossils (planktonic foraminifera, benthic foraminifera, radiolarian and silicoflagellate) and the compositional characters of benthic foraminifera fauna analyses were carried out on a sediment core DOC082 obtained from the western slope of Okinawa Trough (29°13.93′N, 128°08.53′E; 1 128 m water depth). The long-term changes of biogenic and micropaleontological proxies display some similarities through the last 10 500 a, which show three different phases: lower values are recorded during the early and middle Holocene (before about 4 000 a BP), followed by an abrupt and remarkable increase at about 4 000 a BP, the late Holocene (after about 3 000 a BP) is characterized by continuously high values. The multi-proxy data of paleoproductivity and percents of benthic foraminifera genera (Uvigerina and Bulimina) show that during the early and middle Holocene (10 500–4 000 a BP) productivity was relatively low with a sudden and distinct increase at about 4 000 a BP, and the late Holocene (3 400–0 a BP) is marked by significantly higher productivity. Also, the radiolarian-based sea surface temperature (SST) records reveal a distinct decline in SST in the late Holocene after 3 200 a BP, very different from the early and middle Holocene. For the last 3 000 a, the enhanced biological productivity and distinctly lower SST indicate a major change of oceanographic conditions in the northeastern ECS. These marine environmental anomalies are consistent with other paleoclimatic records for the late Holocene in the Chinese continent and its surrounding regions. After analyzing the mechanisms of modern productivity and SST changes in the northeastern ECS, and based on the climatic anomalies in the Chinese continent and variations in the Kuroshio Current during modern El Niño periods, we suggest that the anomalous environmental conditions in the northeastern ECS may imply intensified El Niño activity during the late Holocene.     

Decadal variations of the North Pacific Tropical Water at 137°E

The decadal variations of the North Pacific Tropical Water(NPTW)at 137°E in the western North Pacific Ocean are investigated based on the repeated hydrographic observations along with two global gridded ocean products.The results indicate that the maximum salinity of NPTW experiences significant quasi-decadal variations,having maxima around 1979,1987,1995,2004,and 2012,while minima around1974,1983,1991,1999,and 2008 during the period of interest.The NPTW area also shows similar quasidecadal variation,expanding/shrinking as its maximum salinity increases/decreases at the 137°E section.These variations are induced mainly by changes in the mixed layer salinity in the source region and largescale circulation in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean,both of which are related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.The underlying processes at work are further confirmed through conducting the subsurface salinity budget analysis.Besides,short-term processes are also at work through nonlinear interactions,especially after 2000.     

Wind-forced equatorial wave dynamics of the Pacific Ocean during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 E1 Ni?o events

The equatorial wave dynamics of interannual sea level variations between 2014/2015 and2015/2016 El Nino events are compared using the Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics Climate Ocean Model(LICOM) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis I wind stre s s and heat flux during 2000-2015.In addition,the LICOM can reproduce the interannual variability of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) and sea level anomalies(SLA) along the equator over the Pacific Ocean in comparison with the Hadley center and altimetric data well.We extracted the equatorial wave coefficients of LICOM simulation to get the contribution to SLA by multiplying the meridional wave structure.During 2014/2015 El Nino event,upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves from the western boundary in April2014 reach the eastern Pacific Ocean,which weakened SLA in the eastern Pacific Ocean.However,no upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves from the western boundary of the Pacific Ocean could reach the eastern boundary during the 2015/2016 El Nino event.Linear wave model results also demonstrate that upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves in both 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 from the western boundary can reach the eastern boundary.However,the contribution from stronger westerly anomalies forced downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves overwhelmed that from the upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves from the western boundary in 2015.Therefore,the western boundary reflection and weak westerly wind burst inhibited the growth of the 2014/2015 El Nino event.The disclosed equatorial wave dynamics are important to the simulation and prediction of ENSO events in future studies.     

Surface thermal centroid anomaly of the eastern equatorial Pacific as a unified Niño index

By analyzing the variability of global SST(sea surface temperature) anomalies,we propose a unified Ni o index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7°C contour line of the standard deviation of the SST anomalies and try to unify the traditional Ni o regions into a single entity.The unified Ni o region covers almost all of the traditional Ni o regions.The anomaly time series of the averaged SST over this region are closely correlated to historical Ni o indices.The anomaly time series of the zonal and meridional thermal centroid have close correlation with historical TNI(Trans-Ni o index) indices,showing differences among El Ni o(La Ni a) events.The meridional centroid anomaly suggests that areas of maximum temperature anomaly are moving meridionally(although slightly) with synchronous zonal movement.The zonal centroid anomalies of the unified Ni o region are found helpful in the classification of the Eastern Pacific(EP)/Central Pacific(CP) types of El Ni o events.More importantly,the zonal centroid anomaly shows that warm areas might move during a single warming/cooling phase.All the current Ni o indices can be well represented by a simple linear combination of unified Ni o indices,which suggests that the thermal anomaly(SSTA) and thermal centroid location anomaly of the unified Ni o region would yield a more complete image of each El Ni o/ La Ni a event.