Anomalous radon emanation at local and regional distances preceding earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone and adjacent areas of the central mid-continent of North America, 1981–84

Anomalous soil-radon activity, including several spike-like surges over periods of 5, 2, and 2 1/2 months, and a year-long declining trend, preceded the most significant earthquakes of the central mid-continental region of North America during 1981 and early 1984. The 5-month period of erratic weekly radon activity, February–June 1981, was followed by a tremor of magnitudeM=4.0, 40 km from the monitoring site in the New Madrid seismic zone. An unusual earthquake swarm in central Arkansas, 160 km from the New Madrid seismic zone and 230 km from the monitoring site in the seismic zone, began in January 1982, shortly after a year-long declining trend in anomalous radon emanation. Earthquakes of magnitudes 4.5, 4.1, and 4.0 occurred at the swarm's outset in early 1982, fitting a pattern anticipated for the New Madrid seismic zone on the basis of the radon activity. Two periods of coincident peak radon emanation have since been observed in the Arkansas and New Madrid seismic regions, as have synchronous seismic pulses for the two separate areas.Two more recent periods of highly erratic soil-radon emanation, March–May 1983 and November–January 1984, were followed by a 4.3 earthquake in southwestern Illinois on 15 may 1983, and 3.5–3.6 tremors and swarm activity in the New Madrid seismic zone in late January and mid-February 1984. Prior to the 4.3 event, radon peaked at three widely separated monitoring sites 1–3 weeks before the tremor at distances of 120, 225, and 320 km from the epicentral region, the station at 225 km, in the New Madrid seismic zone, recording the longest period of anomalous radon activity. As for the recent 3.5–3.6 tremors of 1984, seismic activity of this magnitude had been anticipated for January or February on the basis of the amplitude of the November radon anomaly.These observations provide further evidence of (a) the existence of soil-radon anomalies precursory to the large earthquakes in this intraplate region, (b) the utility of such anomalies in anticipating events of small to moderate magnitudes for the region, and (c) the occurrence of regional-scale strain events prior to some of the larger mid-continental earthquakes.A very recent radon anomaly, the strongest yet to be detected in the seven years of monitoring in the mid-continental region, occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone from mid-February through mid-June 1984. A 4.0 earthquake occurred one month after a peak in the radon activity. The amplitude and duration of the anomaly suggest that a significant change in the state of stress or strain may have occurred in the mid-continental region during 1984.     

Radon Precursory Signals for Some Earthquakes of Magnitude > 5 Occurred in N-W Himalaya: An Overview

The N-W Himalaya was rocked by a few major and many minor earthquakes. Two major earthquakes in Garhwal Himalaya: Uttarkashi earthquake of magnitude M_s= 7.0 (m_b = 6.6) on October 20, 1991 in Bhagirthi valley and Chamoli earthquake of M_s= 6.5 (m_b = 6.8) on March 29, 1999 in the Alaknanda valley and one in Himachal Himalaya: Chamba earthquake of magnitude 5.1 on March 24, 1995 in Chamba region, were recorded during the last decade and correlated with radon anomalies. The helium anomaly for Chamoli earthquake was also recorded and the Helium/Radon ratio model was tested on it. The precursory nature of radon and helium anomalies is a strong indicator in favor of geochemical precursors for earthquake prediction and a preliminary test for the Helium/Radon ratio model.     

Eruption characteristics and cycles at Pavlof Volcano, Alaska, and their relation to regional earthquake activity

Pavlof Volcano (55° 25′N, 161° 54′W) exhibits two eruption styles: magmatic eruptions of one-to-two-days duration, and phreatic-phreatomagmatic activity lasting several days to two months. Thirty-four eruptions have occurred in historic times; of these the largest are Volcano Explosivity Index=3. Nine magmatic and 13 phreatomagmatic eruptions occurred between 1973–1983. All the magmatic eruptions occurred in the fall, between Sept. 9–Nov. 20. Four magmatic eruptions occurred during November 11–15, but in four different years. A 3-year-long period of eruptive activity between 1973–1976 bears striking resemblance to a period of activity between 1980–1983. No locatable shallow earthquakes (<50 km) have occurred within 30 km of Pavlof since 1973, which is quite unusual for an active island-arc volcano. Shallow events in the adjacent are segments have focal mechanisms with P-axes perpendicular to the arc (and parallel to plate convergence). Deep earthquakes (> 100 km) are clustered beneath Pavlof and several other volcanoes. Their T-axes show downdip tension within the slab. Deep teleseisms (> 160 km) mostly occurred between 1977–1979 when the volcano was not erupting. Catalogued volcanic activity throughout the Alaska/Aleutian arc shows a weak tendency to increase around the time of great (M > 7.8) earthquakes.     

Variations of radon content in groundwaters and possible correlation with seismic activities in northern Taiwan

Radon (²²²Rn) concentration in geothermal waters and CO₂-rich cold springwaters collected weekly in duplicate samples from four stations in northern Taiwan were measured from July 1980 to December 1983. Seven spike-like radon anomalies (increases of 2 to 3 times the standard deviation above the mean) were observed at three stations. Following every anomaly except one, an earthquake ofM _L above 4.6 occurred within 4 to 51 days, at an epicentral distance 14 to 45 km, and at a focal depth of less than 10 km. The distribution of the earthquakes preceded by radon anomalies is skewed in certain directions from the radon stations; the radon stations seem to be insensitive to earthquakes occurring in the other directions. At the fourth station, near a volcanic area, much gas (mainly CO₂) is discharged from the well, together with hot water. A very high concentration of radon was detected in the discharged gas; therefore trapping of gas in the water can result in anomalously high radon contents. According to limited measurements, the radon concentration in water appears to be undersaturated with respect to that in gas. This suggests that hot water is very susceptible to radon loss, and monitoring of radon in gas is more desirable.     

嘉峪关气氡浓度异常与2021年玛多MS7.4地震关系分析

嘉峪关气氡浓度在多年上升的背景下,于2017年出现了转折异常变化,但祁连山地震带内一直没有发生与异常幅度和持续时间相匹配的地震,直到2021年5月22日,在距离嘉峪关气氡测点570 km的玛多发生M_S7.4地震。为了判断嘉峪关气氡浓度异常与玛多地震的关系,结合震例,从异常信度、震前异常特征、震后异常变化及地质构造背景等方面对其进行深入分析。结果发现:嘉峪关气氡浓度的异常特征与地震所处的构造有关,发生在祁连山地震带内的地震,气氡浓度异常表现为1年或半年尺度的年畸变,发生在该地震带以外远距离的地震,气氡浓度异常表现为多年的趋势性变化;玛多地震发生后,嘉峪关气氡浓度下降速率减缓之后转折,呈恢复状态;嘉峪关气氡测点与玛多地震都位于青藏高原东北部,具有相同的动力背景且在构造上具有关联性。综合分析认为嘉峪关气氡多年趋势异常与玛多M_S7.4地震有关,研究对建立可靠的异常指标体系、提高地震预测水平具有重要意义。     

Preliminary results of seismogeochemical research in China

Several kinds of geochemical anomaly before strong earthquakes have been observed in China since 1966. They include changes in groundwater radon levels, ion content of water (Ca⁺², Mg⁺², Cl^–, SO ₄ ^–2 , F^–), dissolved gases (H₂, CO₂), and gases escaping from the aeration zone through abandoned dry wells (Ar, N₂, CO₂). The radon anomalies may be grouped as long-term and short-term anomalies. Most of the geochemical anomalies observed are characterized by a pattern of increase. The largest amplitude recorded was 37 times the base level. Preliminary study indicates that the types of seismogeochemical anomaly observed prior to strong earthquakes depend on tectonic, geologic, lithologic, and hydrogeological conditions at the monitoring station. Results obtained from modelling experiments on the mechanisms of some anomalies are given.     

Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160×80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of theM>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations.     

Relative seismic moment tensor determination for Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes

The method of relative seismic moment tensor determination proposed byStrelitz (1980) is extended a) from an interactive time domain analysis to an automated frequency domain procedure, and b) from an analysis of subevents of complex deep-focus earthquakes to the study of individual source mechanism of small events recorded at few stations.The method was applied to the recovery of seismic moment tensor components of 95 intermediate depth earthquakes withM _L=2.6–4.9 from the Vrancea region, Romania. The main feature of the obtained fault plane solutions is the horizontality ofP axes and the nonhorizontal orienaation ofT axes (inverse faulting). Those events with high fracture energy per unit area of the fault can be grouped unambiguously into three depth intervals: 102–106 km, 124–135 km and 141–152 km. Moreover, their fault plane solutions are similar to ones of all strong and most moderate events from this region and the last two damaging earthquakes (November 10, 1940 withM _W=7.8 and March 4 1977 withM _W=7.5) occurred within the third and first depth interval, respectively. This suggests a possible correlation at these depths between fresh fracture of rocks and the occurrence of strong earthquakes.     

Possible strain events reflected in water levels in wells along San Jacinto fault zone,southern California

Water levels have been monitored in wells along the San Jacinto fault zone since 1977. The three largest earthquakes to occur within 30 km of the segment of the San Jacinto fault zone being monitored with continuous recorders showed magnitudesM of 4.5, 4.8, and 5.5. Two wells in Borrego Valley, 31 to 32 km southeast of theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980, showed anomalous spikes recording a probable strain event 88 hours before the earthquake. Two other wells 12 km northwest of the epicenter showed no water-level anomalies. No water-level anomalies preceded theM=4.8 earthquake near Anza on 15 June 1982. Anomalous water-level fluctuations occurred in a well near Ocotillo Wells, 13 km northeast of theM=4.5 earthquake on 22 March 1982, 19 to 23 days prior to the earthquake. Similar fluctuations in other wells have not been followed by sizable earthquakes. A simultaneous drop in water level occurred in four wells on 8 September 1982; this possible strain event was not associated with a sizable earthquake. The presumed strain events occur only in wells that show earth tides and may have been the result of creep on strands of the San Jacinto fault zone. Although water-level anomalies have occurred in only one or two wells prior to two out of three moderate (M=4.5–5.5) earthquakes, the simultaneous drop in water level on 8 September 1982 and the spikes in two wells before theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980 suggest that wells responsive to earth tides may detect strain events.     

Body-wave wave-form modelling and source parameters for the indochina border earthquakes

Wave-form modelling of body waves has been done to study the seismic source parameters of three earthquakes which occurred on October 21, 1964 (M _b =5.9), September 26, 1966 (M _b =5.8) and March 14, 1967 (M _b =5.8). These events occurred in the Indochina border region where a low-angle thrust fault accommodates motion between the underthrusting Indian plate and overlying Himalaya. The focal depths of all these earthquakes are between 12–37 km. The total range in dip for the three events is 5°–20°. TheT axes are NE-SW directed whereas the strikes of the northward dipping nodal planes are generally parallel to the local structural trend. The total source durations have been found to vary between 5–6 seconds. The average values of seismic moment, fault radius and dislocation are 1.0–11.0×10²⁵ dyne-cm, 7.7–8.4km and 9.4–47.4 cm, respectively whereas stress drop, apparent stress and strain energy are found to be 16–76 bars, 8.2–37.9 bars and 0.1–1.7×10²¹ ergs, respectively. These earthquakes possibly resulted due to the tension caused by the bending of the lithospheric plate into a region of former subduction which is now a zone of thrusting and crustal shortening.     

The October 4th, 1983 — Magnitude 4 earthquake in Phlegraean Fields: Macroseismic survey

On Oct. 4th, 1983 the area of Phlegraean Fields, near Naples (Southern Italy) was shaked by an earthquake of magnitude (M _L) 4.0 that caused some damage in the town of Pozzuoli and its surroundings. This seismic event was the largest one recorded during the recent (1982–84) inflation episode occurred in the Phlegraean volcanic area, and a detailed macroseismic reconstruction of the event was carried out.Failing macroseismic data on other earthquakes occurred in Phlegraean Fields, the attenuation law of the intensity as a function of the distance as obtained for the Oct. 4th earthquake was compared with those obtained for other volcanic areas in central Italy —i.e., Tolfa, Monte Amiata — in order to check the reliability of the results obtained for Phlegraean Fields.The Blake's model of the earthquake of Oct. 4th, 1983 does not agree with the experimental data because isoseismals contain areas larger than those shown by the model. This result has been interpreted as an effect of energy focusing due to a reflecting layer 6–8 km deep.     

Earthquake swarms to the west of Mt Ruapehu preceding its 1995 eruption

Some months prior to the 1995 eruption of Mt Ruapehu (New Zealand), a series of shallow earthquake swarms occurred about 15–20 km west of the summit of Ruapehu. Several earthquakes in these swarms were felt, and the largest event was M_L 4.8. Crustal earthquakes of M_L≥3.0 within 20 km of the summit of Ruapehu have been rather uncommon in recent years. Furthermore, the two periods of strongest activity were both just before times when the temperature of Crater Lake showed rapid increases. The second of these rapid heating phases was immediately followed by increases in the Mg²⁺ ion concentration in Crater Lake, indicating that chemical interactions were occurring between fresh magmatic material and the lake water. The coincidence between seismicity and lake changes suggested a link with the following eruption. A 1-D simultaneous inversion to locate the earthquakes more accurately showed that most of the earthquakes fell into three spatial clusters, each cluster having a small horizontal cross-section. The predominant depth was about 10–16 km. The b-value of this swarm was 0.74, quite compatible with ordinary tectonic earthquakes. Each cluster of earthquakes lies close to the normal Raurimu Fault which runs predominantly north–south to the west of Ruapehu, with an east-trending branch splaying off near its northern end (see Fig. 1b). Composite focal mechanisms of events in the two more southern clusters are oblique-normal, while the other cluster to the north has an oblique-reverse mechanism. The two oblique-normal mechanisms suggest that extension has occurred on part of the fault. This stress pattern was also observed in the focal mechanism solutions of events that occurred after the eruption, when a denser network of portable seismographs covered the region. Although we cannot definitely connect the occurrence of these swarms to the eruptions later in 1995, there is a strong suggestion that the seismicity was connected to the process of magma movement, which temperature and chemical changes in Crater Lake suggest was occurring during the first half of 1995.     

Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes sincea.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was theM=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.     

Critical evaluation of strong motion in Kocaeli and Düzce (Turkey) earthquakes

Turkey was struck by two major events on August 17th and November 12th, 1999. Named Kocaeli (M_w=7.4) and Düzce (M_w=7.2) earthquakes, respectively, the two earthquakes provided the most extensive strong ground motion data set ever recorded in Turkey. The strong motion stations operated by the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University and Istanbul Technical University have produced at least 27 strong motion records for the Kocaeli earthquake within 200 km of the fault. Kocaeli earthquake has generated six motions within 20 km of the fault adding significantly to the near-field database of ground motions for M_w>=7.0 strike–slip earthquakes. The paper discusses available strong motion data, studies their attenuation characteristics, analyses time domain, as well as spectral properties such as spectral accelerations with special emphasis on fault normal and fault parallel components and the elastic attenuation parameter, kappa. A simulation of the Kocaeli earthquake using code FINSIM is also presented.     

Experimental evidence for flexibility of a building foundation supported by concrete friction piles

This article explores the possibility to measure deformations of building foundations from measurements of ambient noise and strong motion recordings. The case under study is a seven-storey hotel building in Van Nuys, California. It has been instrumented by strong motion accelerographs, and has recorded several earthquakes, including the 1971 San Fernando (M_L=6.6, R=22 km), 1987 Whittier–Narrows (M_L=5.9, R=41 km), 1992 Landers (M_L=7.5, R=186 km), 1992 Big Bear (M_L=6.5, R=149 km), and 1994 Northridge (M_L=6.4, R=1.5 km) earthquake and its aftershocks (20 March: M_L=5.2, R=1.2 km; 6 December, 1994: M_L=4.3, R=11 km). It suffered minor structural damage in 1971 earthquake and extensive damage in 1994. Two detailed ambient vibration tests were performed following the Northridge earthquake, one before and the other one after the 20 March aftershock. These included measurements at a grid of points on the ground floor and in the parking lot surrounding the building, presented and analyzed in this article. The analysis shows that the foundation system, consisting of grade beams on friction piles, does not act as a “rigid body” but deforms during the passage of microtremor and therefore earthquake waves. For this geometrically and by design essentially symmetric building, the center of stiffness of the foundation system appears to have large eccentricity (this is seen both from the microtremor measurements and from the earthquake recordings). This eccentricity may have contributed to strong coupling of transverse and torsional responses, and to larger than expected torsional response, contributing to damage during the 1994 Northridge, earthquake.     

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Kalpin MS5.3 Earthquake Sequence of December 1, 2013 and Anomalies before the Earthquake

This paper introduces the basic parameters, focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1, 2013, and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake, the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault, the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component. (2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type, with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE. (3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of M_S2.0-4.0 earthquakes, seismic quiescence of M_S4.0 earthquakes and seismic belts of M_S3.0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters. (4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries.     

Site response using coda-wave techniques: Applications to short period data from central and southern Italy

The method of coda waves was applied to two different sets of data for the evaluation of the relative site response.The first set of data consists of low magnitude earthquakes with closely spaced locations, recorded at a small aperture array of velocimeters located in the Abruzzo region, central Italy. The second set of data is composed of events with epicentral distance ranging from 20 to 300 km, recorded at a seismological network with an aperture of about 100 km located in the Puglia region, southern Italy.Results show that the coda wave method furnishes stable estimates of the site effect. An amplification, relative to an arbitrary site, of a factor of about 2 occurs in the 1.7–6 Hz frequency band for two stations of the Abruzzo network, while an amplification factor of about 0.5 occurs in the whole frequency band (1–24 Hz) for one of the stations of the Puglia network. This station is located in an area which is correlated with a low macroseismic intensity anomaly.     

Perspectives on monitoring resistivity changes with telluric signals at Parkfield, California: 1988–1999

An array designed to detect changes of resistivity in the upper 10 km of the crust has been in continuous operation since 1988. Long period (T=300–7200 s) telluric signals are recorded digitally on 5–16 km long dipoles. Telluric transfer functions are computed between field dipoles and two reference dipoles and then decomposed to examine daily fluctuations of those functions. Based on analysis of these daily fluctuations, stabilities of 0.1–0.3% are achieved. No intermediate term resistivity changes are seen associated with any of the 5 M_b>4.0 earthquakes that have occurred since 1989. Short term fluctuations are seen associated with most of these earthquakes, however. Minimum bounds on resistivity changes that could have caused the fluctuations in the telluric responses range from 1.7 to 13.0%. While these are within the ranges seen in other field studies, the statistical significance of these fluctuations is low because they also occur at many times that cannot be correlated to earthquakes. Comparison of the one potential resistivity change associated with a strain change results in a strain sensitivity that is unrealistically high. This possible resistivity change coincides spatially with a temporary variation in seismic travel time in May–June 1989, however. It is likely that many of the fluctuations in the telluric responses are random variations except for the one in 1989, and recording through the next M6 earthquake will be needed in order to detect a statistically significant resistivity change.     

Relation between spring water radon anomalies and seismic activity in Garhwal Himalaya

The variations of spring water radon concentration and meteorological parameters were analysed in relation to the seismic activities in Garhwal Himalaya, India. The radon anomalies were classified on the basis of statistical treatment of the daily observations. The precise measurements of water discharge rate from the spring have been made along with radon measurements for earthquake precursory study. The earthquakes with epicentral distances less than 150 km were considered by an empirical relationship. Pre-, co-, and post-seismic changes in the radon concentration were taken carefully into account in the empirical relationship to establish this behaviour as a potential earthquake precursor. The empirical relationship has been validated by the radon data recorded from the spring waters. The magnitudes of the earthquakes were estimated by using the empirical relationship by introducing computed correlation coefficient of radon and meteorological parameters. The calculated magnitude of some local earthquakes matches exactly with the magnitude recorded by the laboratory seismograph. The possible mechanisms that may cause a radon anomaly are also discussed.     

Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California

Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.