Dynamics of the Oder river plume in the Southern Baltic Sea: satellite data and numerical modelling

The Oder river discharge into the Pomeranian Bight of the Baltic Sea was investigated in a combined study using satellite data, numerical modelling and shipborne measurements. The aim was to understand the dynamical processes forming the freshwater distribution patterns during the prevailing winds. From an analysis of typical distribution patterns of the river discharge in relation to the main wind directions and in comparison to seasonal wind statistics, the two main transport directions were determined. The prevailing westerly winds produce an onshore transport and a downwind coastal jet which transports the river water along the Polish coast, in certain cases over a distance of 300 km to the Gdansk Bay. During a period of stable westerly winds in June 1994, the calculated time scale for a water transport over 250 km corresponded to the observed time of 12 d. In spring, the period of maximum river runoff, easterly winds dominate and transport occurs along the German coast into the Arkona Sea. The river water is guided by upwelling processes in front of the Polish coast. During occasional north-easterly winds stable plumes form in front of the Swine river mouth; this occurred in May 1991 for several days. The numerical model showed that the stability of the plume is caused by an interaction between the alignment of the coast, the large-scale circulation in the north, the buoyancy of the freshwater and the Coriolis effect. The underlying anticyclonic eddy is indicated by warm rings in a high resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper scene. From the different datasets the range of the spatial and temporal scales of a stable plume were determined. The volume varied between 0.14 and 0.9 km³, and the suspended matter and chlorophyll load between 1120 and 7200 t and 2.8 and 18 t, respectively. These values are important for ecological budget calculations in turnover process studies.     

Modelling the influence of thermal discharge under wind on algae

Wind-driven processes exert an important impact on aquatic ecosystems, especially on shallow reservoirs. Flow and heat transport under wind in the Douhe reservoir in China were simulated by a two-dimensional mathematical model. Areas corresponding to different temperature rises were calculated for different wind speed conditions with high frequency. It is shown that high temperature rise areas increase for maximum wind speed conditions while low temperature rise areas keep constant for various wind speed conditions. The concentration of Chl.a decreases with the increase of wind speed, indicating that low wind speed is suitable for algae blooming in the Douhe reservoir. The effects of wind on Bacillariophyta biomass growth become more obvious with the increase of temperature rise areas. The influenced areas of lower temperature rise (0.2–1.49 °C) and higher temperature rise (1.5–2 °C) zone are 8.57 × 10⁶ m² and 5.18 × 10⁶ m², respectively, and corresponding total variation amounts of Bacillariophyta biomass are 2.24 × 10⁵/m² and 0.42 × 10⁵/m², respectively. Results show that wind has a significant impact on ecological effects due to thermal discharge from thermal power plant into shallow reservoirs.     

Modeling of the river ecological status with macrophytes using artificial neural networks

Biomonitoring methods based on macrophytes have been used mandatorily in the assessment of freshwaters since the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR) was developed in Poland for the monitoring of running waters under the WFD requirements. This index shows the degree of river degradation under the influence of water pollutants, especially nutrients. The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between the MIR and various hydrochemical parameters using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Physico-chemical parameters of water (monthly results for the whole year), which were derived from 147 lowland river survey sites, all located in Poland, were applied to model the MIR values. Water quality variables were determined over three timeframes: the annual average; the average for the vegetation period; and the average for the summer period. Quality of the networks was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best modeling quality was obtained for yearly average values of water quality parameters. The quality statistics were: R² = 0.722, NSE = 0.721 and RMSE = 0.056 (training dataset); R² = 0.555, NSE = 0.533 and RMSE = 0.101 (validation dataset); R² = 0.650. NSE = 0.600 and RMSE = 0.089 (testing dataset). This indicates that macrophytes reflect the whole year impact of pollution, whereas summer.     

Simulating wind-affected snow accumulations at catchment to basin scales

In non-forested mountain regions, wind plays a dominant role in determining snow accumulation and melt patterns. A new, computationally efficient algorithm for distributing the complex and heterogeneous effects of wind on snow distributions was developed. The distribution algorithm uses terrain structure, vegetation, and wind data to adjust commonly available precipitation data to simulate wind-affected accumulations. This research describes model development and application in three research catchments in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwest Idaho, USA. All three catchments feature highly variable snow distributions driven by wind. The algorithm was used to derive model forcings for Isnobal, a mass and energy balance distributed snow model. Development and initial testing took place in the Reynolds Mountain East catchment (0.36 km²) where R² values for the wind-affected snow distributions ranged from 0.50 to 0.67 for four observation periods spanning two years. At the Upper Sheep Creek catchment (0.26 km²) R² values for the wind-affected model were 0.66 and 0.70. These R² values matched or exceeded previously published cross-validation results from regression-based statistical analyses of snow distributions in similar environments. In both catchments the wind-affected model accurately located large drift zones, snow-scoured slopes, and produced melt patterns consistent with observed streamflow. Models that did not account for wind effects produced relatively homogenous SWE distributions, R² values approaching 0.0, and melt patterns inconsistent with observed streamflow. The Dobson Creek (14.0 km²) application incorporated elevation effects into the distribution routine and was conducted over a two-dimensional grid of 6.67 × 10⁵ pixels. Comparisons with satellite-derived snow-covered-area again demonstrated that the model did an excellent job locating regions with wind-affected snow accumulations. This final application demonstrated that the computational efficiency and modest data requirements of this approach are ideally suited for large-scale operational applications.     

Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index

A new empirical model nowcasting and predicting a proxy to the geomagnetic K index is developed, which is based on the combined use of solar wind parameters and ground-based magnetic data. The present approach implements the previously developed solar wind-based MAK model, calibrating its values with magnetogram-derived K index. The new model is named as Hybrid Dourbes K (HDK) model. The HDK nowcast model provides the quantity Kdf, obtained by solar wind-based Ksw and corrected with a combination of differences between several past values of Kd and Ksw. The model error of the nowcast Kdf is found to be 0.38 KU, or nearly twice less than that of the MAK model. Kdf has a good predictability. Prediction made by weighted extrapolation 6 h ahead carries an error of 1.0 KU, while for the first 1 h the error is 0.58 KU only.     

Long-term thermospheric neutral wind observations over the northern polar cap

We study the solar dependence of the thermospheric dynamics based on more than 20 years Fabry–Perot interferometer O 6300 Å emission observation of polar cap thermospheric wind from three stations: Thule (76.53°N, 68.73°W, MLAT 86N), Eureka (80.06°N, 86.4°W, MLAT 89N), and Resolute (74.72°N, 94.98°W, MLAT 84N) in combination with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEGCM). All three stations showed a dominant diurnal oscillation in both the meridional and zonal components, which is a manifestation of anti-sunward thermospheric wind in the polar cap. The three-station observations and the TIEGCM simulation exhibit varying degree of correlations between the anti-sunward thermospheric wind and solar F10.7 index. The diurnal oscillation is stronger at Eureka (∼150 m/s) than that at Resolute (∼100 m/s) according to both observations and TIEGCM simulation. The semidiurnal oscillation is stronger at Resolute (∼20 m/s) than that at Eureka based (∼10 m/s) on data and model results. These results are consistent with a two-cell convection pattern in the polar cap thermospheric winds. The Thule results are less consistent between the model and observations. The simulated meridional wind diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations are stronger than those observed.     

The statistical and numerical study of the global distribution of coronal plasma and magnetic field near 2.5 Rs over a 10-year period

The basic characteristics of the global distribution for the corona plasma and magnetic field near 2.5 Rs are analyzed with the statistical and numerical methods for 136 Carrington Rotations (CRs) covering four different phases of solar activity. By using the observational data and the velocity distribution model in the corona, the statistical average distribution of the magnetic field, density and the coronal mass outputs are analyzed for the four different phases. Then, a numerical study of the global distribution near 2.5 Rs has been made by solving a self-consistent MHD system. Finally, the solar wind speed at 1 AU is given by mapping the speed at 2.5 Rs to that near 1 AU, and the comparison of the numerical results with the observational measurements and the simulation result of the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model are made during more than 5 years. The numerical results indicate that the global distributions on the source surface of 2.5 Rs at different phases of solar activity could be used to predict the change of the solar wind in interplanetary space.     

Geochemical and geo-statistical assessment of selected heavy metals in the surface sediments of the Gorgan Bay,Iran

We investigated heavy metal concentrations of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), and lead (Pb), their spatial distribution and enrichment factor index in surface sediments of the Gorgan Bay. Sediment Quality Guidelines were also applied to assess adverse biological effects of these metals. Heavy metals were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS). The results indicated mean concentrations (ppm) of heavy metals were (mean ± S.D.) Pb: 11.5 ± 4.88, Cu: 18 ± 8.83, Zn: 42 ± 22.15 and Cr: 32 ± 15.19. Based on Enrichment index, the Gorgan Bay is a low-enriched to non-enriched bay. Heavy metal contents were lower than the standard limits of PEL, ERL, and ERM that reveal no threatening influence of the metals in the Bay.     

Statistical prediction of the next great earthquake around Tehran,Iran

The analysis of seismic activity variations with space and time is a complex problem. Several statistical methods have been adopted to study these variations. One of the tasks that has attracted the attention of the seismological and statistical community is to explain seismicity patterns by statistical models and apply the results for earthquake prediction. Here the probability distribution of recurrence times as described by Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull probability distributions and the idea of conditional probability has been applied to predict the next great (Ms ≥ 6.0 and Ms ≥ 6.5) earthquake around Tehran (r ≤ 200 km). Conditional probability specifies the likelihood that a given earthquake will happen within a specified time. This likelihood is based on the information about past earthquake occurrences in the given region and the basic assumption that future seismic activity will follow the pattern of past activity. The rapid growth of Tehran to approximately 12 million inhabitants has resulted in a much more rapid increase in its vulnerability to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Several earthquakes affected this region in the past, mostly on the Mosha, Taleqan, Eyvankey and Garmsar faults. The estimated recurrence times for Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull distributions has been computed to be 66.64, 14.79, 26.88, 2.37, 67.58 and 80.47, respectively. Accordingly, one may expect that a large damaging earthquake may occur around Tehran approximately every 10 years.     

Spring and summer blooms of phytoplankton (SeaWiFS/MODIS) along a ferry line in the Bay of Biscay and western English Channel

The seasonal cycle of chlorophyll concentration in the Bay of Biscay and western English Channel has been examined using satellite data (chlorophyll, sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and wind) along the line of the ferry Pride of Bilbao (Bilbao to Portsmouth). The spring phytoplankton bloom develops regularly in the oceanic region of the Bay of Biscay from mid March to the beginning of May with peak chlorophyll concentrations ranging 2–4 mg m^?3. Low wind turbulence is a major factor allowing the development of productivity pulses in the Bay of Biscay during spring. Exceptional blooms of phytoplankton take place in summer (July–August) in the western English Channel with chlorophyll concentrations as high as 40 mg m^?3. Some environmental factors (SST, wind, pressure and tide) are examined. Autumn blooms of phytoplankton (1–2 mg m^?3) are also detected in the northern Bay of Biscay, shelf-break and Celtic Sea in October. A 11 years pluri-annual synthesis of SeaWiFS satellite measurements is presented.     

Ground-based Pc5 ULF wave power: Solar wind speed and MLT dependence

Using over 20 years of ground-based magnetometer data from the CANOPUS/CARISMA magnetometer array, we present a statistical characterisation of Pc5 ultra-low frequency (ULF) power in the 2–10 mHz band as a function of magnetic local time (MLT), L-shell, and solar wind speed. We examine the power across L-shells between 4.2 and 7.9, using data from the PINA, ISLL, GILL and FCHU stations, and demonstrate that there is a significant MLT dependence in both the H- and D-component median 2–10 mHz power during both fast (>500 km/s) and slow (<500 km/s) solar wind speeds. The H-component power consistently dominates over D-component power at all MLTs and during both fast and slow solar wind. At the higher-L stations (L>5.4), there are strong MLT power peaks in the morning and midnight local time sectors; the morning sector dominating midnight during fast solar wind events. At lower L-shells, there is no evidence of the midnight peak and the 2–10 mHz power is more symmetric with respect to MLT except during the fastest solar wind speeds. There is little evidence in the ground-based power of a localised MLT peak in ULF power at dusk, except at the lowest L-shell station, predominantly in the H-component. The median 2–10 mHz power increases with an approximate power law dependence on solar wind speed, at all local times across the L-shell domain studied in both components. The H-component power peaks at the latitude of the GILL station, with significantly lower power at both higher and lower L-shells. Conversely, the D-component power increases monotonically. We believe that this is evidence for 2–10 mHz power accumulating at auroral latitudes in field line resonances. Finally, we discuss how such ULF wave power characterisation might be used to derive empirical radiation belt radial diffusion coefficients based on, and driven by, the solar wind speed dependence of ULF wave power.     

Intra-seasonal monthly oscillations in stratospheric NCEP data and model results

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements—and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996–2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.     

Seasonal variability of primary production in a fjord ecosystem of the Chilean Patagonia: Implications for the transfer of carbon within pelagic food webs

We characterized the seasonal cycle of productivity in Reloncaví Fjord (41°30′S), Chilean Patagonia. Seasonal surveys that included measurements of gross primary production, community respiration, bacterioplankton secondary production, and sedimentation rates along the fjord were combined with continuous records of water-column temperature variability and wind forcing, as well as satellite-derived data on regional patterns of wind stress, sea surface temperatures, and surface chlorophyll concentrations. The hydrography and perhaps fjord productivity respond to the timing and intensity of wind forcing over a larger region. Seasonal changes in the direction and intensity of winds, along with a late-winter improvement in light conditions, may determine the timing of phytoplankton blooms and potentially modulate productivity cycles in the region.Depth-integrated gross primary production estimates were higher (0.4–3.8 g C m^?2 d^?1) in the productive season (October, February, and May), and lower (0.1–0.2 g C m^?2 d^?1) in the non-productive season (August). These seasonal changes were also reflected in community respiration and bacterioplankton production rates, which ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 4.8 g C m^?2 d^?1 and 0.05 to 0.4 g C m^?2 d^?1 during the productive and non-productive seasons and from 0.05 to 0.6 g C m^?2 d^?1 and 0.05 to 0.2 g C m^?2 d^?1 during the same two periods. We found a strong, significant correlation between gross primary production and community respiration (Spearman, r=0.95; p<0.001; n=12), which suggests a high degree of coupling between the synthesis of organic matter and its usage by the planktonic community. Similarly, strong correlations were found between bacterioplankton secondary production and both gross primary production (Spearman, r=0.7, p<0.05, n=9) and community respiration (Spearman, r=0.8, p<0.05, n=9), indicating that bacterioplankton may be processing an important fraction (8–59%) of the organic matter produced by phytoplankton in Reloncaví Fjord. In winter, bacterial carbon utilization as a percentage of gross primary production was >100%, suggesting the use of allochthonous carbon sources by bacterioplankton when the levels of gross primary production are low. Low primary production rates were associated with a greater contribution of small cells to autotrophic biomass, highlighting the importance of small-sized plankton and bacteria for carbon cycling and fluxes during the less productive winter months. Fecal pellet sedimentation was minimal during this period, also suggesting that most of the locally produced organic carbon is recycled within the microbial loop. During the productive season, on the other hand, the area exhibited a great potential to export organic matter, be it to higher trophic levels or vertically towards the bottom.     

Middle Pleistocene cold stage climates in the Mediterranean: New evidence from the glacial record

A major reduction in summer temperatures during a Middle Pleistocene glacial cycle caused the most extensive glaciation recorded in the Mediterranean region. Glaciers in the mountains of Greece formed during marine isotope stage (MIS) 12 (474 000–427 000 years BP) under climatic conditions characterised by mean summer temperatures at least 11 °C cooler than today and annual precipitation of ≤ 2300 mm at the equilibrium line altitude (1741 m a.s.l.). This represents the coldest mean summer temperatures recorded in Greece during at least the last 430 000 years. Later Pleistocene glaciations (MIS 6 and 5d-2) were characterised by warmer summer temperatures and higher annual precipitation.     

Maternal-to-fetal transfer and concentration profiles of PCB congeners for Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) from Hokkaido,Japan

The concentrations of PCB congeners in the blubber and liver of mother Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus; SSLs) and their fetuses from the coast of Hokkaido, Japan in 2008, 2010 and 2012 were analyzed by HRGC–HRMS, in order to elucidate PCB congener profiles and maternal-to-fetal transfer of PCBs in SSLs. ΣPCBs in the fetuses were 1400 ± 660 (the mean ± SD) ng/g-fat in the blubber and 570 ± 320 ng/g-fat in the liver, respectively. There was a concern that SSLs had been contaminated by PCBs during the fetal period. The concentrations of the major congeners in the blubber and liver were a correlation between the fetus and mother (blubber: r = 0.9934, liver: r = 0.9160; P ≦ 0.05). The results indicated that PCBs in the fetuses came from the mothers. #177 and #199 showed no correlations between the fetus and the mother in the blubber and liver. This indicated a selective capture by some natural protector such as the placenta.     

Velocity dispersion in fractured rocks in a wide frequency range

Experimental measurements of fracture-induced seismic waves velocity variations at frequencies ~ 1 kHz, ~ 40 kHz and ~ 1 MHz were performed directly in the field at the rocky outcrop and in the laboratory on specific rock samples collected from the outcrops. The peridotite–lherzolite outcrop appeared macroscopically uniform and contained three systems of visible parallel sub-vertical fractures. This rock has substantial bulk density and higher than average value of seismic wave velocity. The presence of fracture systems gives rise to its velocity anisotropy. The seismic waves passing through the rock fractures are subject to velocity dispersion and frequency dependent attenuation. Our data, obtained from field and laboratory measurements, were compared with theoretical model predictions. In this model we successfully used displacement discontinuity approach. For the velocity dispersion evaluation we used multi-frequency measurements. The a priori observation of orientations and densities of fracture sets allowed evaluation of their stiffness. Our approach revealed that the first arrivals of seismic waves can be used for evaluation of P-wave group velocities, the specific case, in which we expect anomalous velocity dispersion. Our observations contribute to the issue of up-scaling of well-log derived velocities in fractured rock to the scale of standard seismic exploration frequencies.     

Crustal velocity structure in the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran)

Inversion of local earthquake travel times and joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity measurements were used to derive a simple model for the velocity crustal structure beneath the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran), including the seismically active area around the megacity of Tehran. The P and S travel times from 115 well-located earthquakes recorded by a dense local seismic network, operated from June to November 2006, were inverted to determine a 1D velocity model of the upper crust. The limited range of earthquake depths (between 2 km and 26 km) prevents us determining any velocity interfaces deeper than 25 km. The velocity of the lower crust and the depth of the Moho were found by joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity data. The resulting P-wave velocity model comprises an upper crust with 3 km and 4 km thick sedimentary layers with P wave velocities (V_p) of ～5.4 and ～5.8 km s^?1, respectively, above 9 km and 8 km thick layers of upper crystalline crust (V_p ～6.1 and ～6.25 km s^?1 respectively). The lower crystalline crust is ～34 km thick (V_p ～ 6.40 km s^?1). The total crustal thickness beneath this part of the Central Alborz is 58 ± 2 km.     

The polar wind: Recent observations

The polar wind is an ambipolar outflow of thermal plasma from the high-latitude ionosphere to the magnetosphere, and it primarily consists of H⁺, He⁺ and O⁺ ions and electrons. Statistical and episodic studies based primarily on ion composition observations on the ISIS-2, DE-1, Akebono and Polar satellites over the past four decades have confirmed the existence of the polar wind. These observations spanned the altitude range from 1000 to ∼50,500 km, and revealed several important features in the polar wind that are unexpected from “classical” polar wind theories. These include the day–night asymmetry in polar wind velocity, which is 1.5–2.0 times larger on the dayside; appreciable O⁺ flow at high altitudes, where the velocity at 5000–10,000 km is of 1–4 km/s; and significant electron temperature anisotropy in the sunlit polar wind, in which the upward-to-downward electron temperature ratio is 1.5–2. These features are attributable to a number of “non-classical” polar wind ion acceleration mechanisms resulting from strong ionospheric convection, enhanced electron and ion temperatures, and escaping atmospheric photoelectrons. The observed polar wind has an averaged ion temperature of ∼0.2–0.3 eV, and a rate of ion velocity increase with altitude that correlates strongly with electron temperature and is greatest at low altitudes (<4000 km for H⁺). The rate of velocity increase below 4000 km is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum. Above 4000 km, the reverse is the case. This suggests that the dominant polar wind ion acceleration process may be different at low and high altitudes, respectively. At a given altitude, the polar wind velocity is highly variable, and is on average largest for H⁺ and smallest for O⁺. Near solar maximum, H⁺, He⁺, and O⁺ ions typically reach a velocity of 1 km/s near 2000, 3000, and 6000 km, respectively, and velocities of 12, 7, and 4 km/s, respectively, at 10,000 km altitude. Near solar minimum, the velocity of all three species is smaller at high altitudes. Observationally it is not always possible to unambiguously separate an energized “non-polar-wind” ion such as a low-energy “cleft ion fountain” ion that has convected into a polar wind flux tube from an energized “polar-wind” ion that is accelerated locally by “non-classical” polar-wind ion acceleration mechanisms. Significant questions remain on the relative contribution between the cleft ion fountain, auroral bulk upflow, and the topside polar-cap ionosphere to the O⁺ polar wind population at high altitudes, the effect of positive spacecraft charging on the lowest-energy component of the H⁺ polar wind population, and the relative importance of the various classical and non-classical ion acceleration mechanisms. These questions pose several challenges in future polar wind observations: These include measurement of the lowest-energy component in the presence of positive spacecraft potential, definitive determination and if possible active control of the spacecraft potential, definitive discrimination between polar wind and other inter-mixed thermal ion populations, measurement of the three-dimensional ion drift velocity vector and the parallel and perpendicular ion temperatures or the detailed three-dimensional velocity distribution function, and resolution of He⁺ and other minor ion species in the polar wind population.     

OSL-dating the Quaternary landscape evolution in the Vértes Hills forelands (Hungary)

Fluvial, colluvial, and aeolian sediments were dated by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) on quartz to improve the chronological framework for Quaternary sedimentation and landscape evolution in the forelands of the Vértes Hills (central Hungary). The separated quartz was suitable for age determination based on an OSL SAR protocol. Most samples have asymmetric equivalent dose distributions and OSL ages were calculated by the mean, central, and minimum D_e values. Considering geomorphology and earlier age data from the area, the central D_e values seem most appropriate for age calculation. A fan on the geomorphological level QV in the western foreland of the Vértes Hills was deposited 79–75 (±8) ka ago. In the south-eastern foreland an alluvial fan on level QIIb is at most 42 ± 4 ka old. Fluvial incision and aggradation occurred 16–10 (±1) ka ago on the geomorphic surface QIIa. Loess is 14 ± 1 ka old, and slope sedimentation was active 11–9 (±1) ka ago. Our OSL data demonstrate that in the north-western foreland of the Vértes Hills wind remained an important agent after the last glacial times, into the early Holocene (9–8 ± 1 ka) and was able to accumulate large aeolian dunes.     

Uncertainty in seasonal snow reconstruction: Relative impacts of model forcing and image availability

There are many areas of uncertainty when solving the inverse problems of snow water equivalent (SWE) reconstruction. These include (i) the ability to infer the Final Date of the Seasonal Snow (FDSS) cover, particularly from remote sensing; (ii) errors in model forcing data (such as air temperature or radiation fluxes); and (iii) weaknesses in the snow model used for the reconstruction, associated with both the fidelity of the equations used to simulate snow processes (structural uncertainty) and the parameter values selected for use in the model equations. We investigate the trade-offs among these sources of uncertainty using 10,000 station-years worth of data from the western US SNOTEL network. Model structural and parameter uncertainty are eliminated by using a perfect model scenario i.e. comparing results to modelled control runs. The model was calibrated for each station-year to ensure that the model simulations reflect reality. Results indicate that for a temperature index model, a ±5 days error in FDSS gives a median −25%/+32% error in maximum SWE. A 1 °C air temperature bias produces a SWE error larger than a 5 days error in the FDSS for 50% of the 10,000 cases. Similarly, a 5 days error in FDSS could be accounted for by a net radiation error of 13 W m⁻² or less during the melt period, in 50% of cases. Mean absolute errors of 1 °C or more are typically reported in the literature for air temperature interpolations at high elevations. Observed solar radiation during the melt season can differ by 30 W m⁻² over relatively short distances, while estimates from reanalysis (NARR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, CFSRR) and GOES satellites typically span more than 40 W m⁻². Using data from both MODIS sensors (Terra & Aqua) at all snow covered points in the western US, a consecutive 5 days gap in imagery at time of FDSS is likely to occur only 5–10% of the time. This work shows that errors in model forcing data are at least as important, if not more, than image availability when reconstructing SWE.