基于陆态网络GPS数据的电离层空间天气监测与研究

中国大陆构造环境监测网络(简称陆态网络)是以全球卫星导航定位系统(GNSS)为主,辅以多种空间观测技术,实时动态监测大陆构造环境变化,探求其对资源、环境和灾害的影响的地球科学综合观测网络.基于陆态网络约200个基准站的GPS观测数据,本文探讨了其在电离层空间天气监测与研究方面的应用.包括磁暴期间电离层暴扰动形态,大尺度电离层行进式扰动,太阳耀斑引起的电离层骚扰和低纬电离层不规则体结构等.研究结果表明:陆态网络布局合理,观测数据质量良好,完全可用于中国及周边地区电离层空间天气监测与研究,为进一步开展我国电离层空间天气预警和预报奠定了观测基础.     

基于陆态网络GPS数据的电离层空间天气监测与研究

中国大陆构造环境监测网络(简称陆态网络)是以全球卫星导航定位系统(GNSS)为主,辅以多种空间观测技术,实时动态监测大陆构造环境变化,探求其对资源、环境和灾害的影响的地球科学综合观测网络.基于陆态网络约200个基准站的GPS观测数据,本文探讨了其在电离层空间天气监测与研究方面的应用.包括磁暴期间电离层暴扰动形态,大尺度电离层行进式扰动,太阳耀斑引起的电离层骚扰和低纬电离层不规则体结构等.研究结果表明:陆态网络布局合理,观测数据质量良好,完全可用于中国及周边地区电离层空间天气监测与研究,为进一步开展我国电离层空间天气预警和预报奠定了观测基础.     

利用COSMIC数据构建全球电离层TEC地图

电离层延迟效应是GNSS精密导航的主要误差源之一,通过建立电离层模型可不同程度地消除电离层延迟效应的影响.然而,目前海洋和气候条件极其恶劣的地区地面参考站建立困难,导致电离层观测资料的全球分布很不均匀,从而限制了现有电离层模型的精度,影响了延迟改正的效果.本文提出在日固坐标系(sun-fixed,地磁纬度和地方时)下,...     

Test of GPS for permanent ionospheric TEC monitoring at high latitudes

The Global Positioning System (GPS) observables are affected by the ionosphere. The dispersive nature of this effect and the use of two frequencies in the GPS observations make possible to measure the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from dual frequency GPS data. In this work we test the concept of permanent monitoring of TEC using a network of GPS receivers at high latitudes. We have used GPS data from five permanent receivers in Scandinavia, from 1–30 January 1994, with geographic latitudes ranging from 57.4^°N to 78.9^°N. The results show the capability of the method to monitor the evolution of TEC as a function of time and geographical location. We have detected night-time enhancements almost every night for some of the stations, and we have also been able to produce maps of the instantaneous TEC as a function of both latitude and longitude around the GPS network. We also present some of the current limitations in the use of GPS for estimating TEC at high latitudes such as the difficulties in solving for cycle-slips, and the necessity of reliable values for the receiver and satellite differential instrumental biases.     

中国空间天气研究进展

空间天气指太阳、行星际空间和地球空间(地球磁层、电离层、热层和中高层大气)的状态及其变化,它能够影响到天基和地基技术系统的运行和可靠性,危及人类的生存.空间天气计划包括观测和资料分析,研究和数值建模,预报和服务.本文评述了近十年来我国空间天气研究中的一些重要成果.     

电离层GPS掩星观测改正TEC反演方法

电离层掩星观测中,当低轨卫星（LEO）轨道高度较低时,轨道以上的电离层电子总含量（TEC）对掩星反演的影响不能忽略.目前,一般采用指数函数等外推方法来处理该问题,对反演结果可能引起较大误差.为提高电离层掩星反演精度,本文研究利用LEO处于非掩星一侧GPS观测数据的改正TEC新反演方法.用三维射线追踪程序计算出电离层掩星观测模拟数据,分别应用改正TEC方法和外推方法进行反演,将反演结果与所用模式值进行比较.结果表明：对于轨道高度约800km的GPS/MET掩星模拟数据,外推方法和改正TEC方法反演结果都与模式值基本一致;对于轨道高度约400km的CHAMP掩星模拟数据,外推方法误差较大,改正TEC方法反演结果与模式值相符得较好.将改正TEC方法应用于GPS/MET实测数据的反演,取得了合理的结果.这些说明,改正TEC算法是一种有效的电离层掩星反演方法,尤其是对于轨道较低的LEO的电离层掩星观测反演特别有用.     

Daily monitoring of Ecuadorian volcanic degassing from space

We present daily measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from active volcanoes in Ecuador and southern Colombia between September 2004 and September 2006, derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's EOS/Aura satellite. OMI is an ultraviolet/visible spectrometer with an unprecedented combination of spatial and spectral resolution, and global coverage, that permits daily measurements of passive volcanic degassing from space. We use non-interactive processing methods to automatically extract daily SO₂ burdens and information on SO₂ sources from the OMI datastream. Maps of monthly average SO₂ vertical columns retrieved by OMI over Ecuador and S. Colombia are also used to illustrate variations in regional SO₂ loading and to pinpoint sources. The dense concentration of active volcanoes in Ecuador provides a stringent test of OMI's ability to distinguish SO₂ from multiple emitting sources. Our analysis reveals that Tungurahua, Reventador and Galeras were responsible for the bulk of the SO₂ emissions in the region in the timeframe of our study, with no significant SO₂ discharge detected from Sangay. At Galeras and Reventador, we conclude that OMI can detect variations in SO₂ release related to cycles of conduit sealing and degassing, which are a critical factor in hazard assessment. The OMI SO₂ data for Reventador are the most extensive sequence of degassing measurements available for this remote volcano, which dominated regional SO₂ production in June–August 2005. At Tungurahua, the OMI measurements span the waning stage of one eruptive cycle and the beginning of another, and we observe increasing SO₂ burdens in the months prior to explosive eruptions of the volcano in July and August 2006. Cumulative SO₂ loadings measured by OMI yield a total of ~ 1.16 Tg SO₂ emitted by volcanoes on mainland Ecuador/S. Colombia between September 2004 and September 2006; as much as 95% of this SO₂ may originate from non-eruptive degassing. Approximate apportionment of the total SO₂ loading indicates that ~ 40% originated from Tungurahua, with ~ 30% supplied by both Reventador and Galeras. These measurements of volcanic SO₂ degassing in Ecuador confirm OMI's potential as an effective, economical and risk-free tool for daily monitoring of SO₂ emissions from hazardous volcanoes.     

Modelling of space weather effects on pipelines

The interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field produces time varying currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The currents cause variations of the geomagnetic field at the surface of the earth and induce an electric field which drives currents in oil and gas pipelines and other long conductors. Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) interfere with electrical surveys of pipelines and possibly contribute to pipeline corrosion.In this paper, we introduce a general method which can be used to determine voltage and current profiles for buried pipelines, when the external geoelectric field and the geometry and electromagnetic properties of the pipeline are known. The method is based on the analogy between pipelines and transmission lines, which makes it possible to use the distributed source transmission line (DSTL) theory. The general equations derived for the current and voltage profiles are applied in special cases. A particular attention is paid to the Finnish natural gas pipeline network.This paper, related to a project about GIC in the Finnish pipeline, thus provides a tool for understanding space weather effects on pipelines. Combined with methods of calculating the geoelectric field during magnetic storms, the results are applicable to forecasting of geomagnetically induced currents and voltages on pipelines in the future.     

Prompt seismic data sharing for the 2021 Maduo earthquake in Qinghai province,China

An M_S7.4 earthquake struck west China in Maduo county, Guoluo prefecture, Qinghai province on May 22, 2021, at 2:04 Beijing time (18:04 UTC on May 21, 2021), which broke the quiet period of Chinese mainland for 1382 days without earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher. The analysis of the seismic data sequence would play an important role in the in-depth study of the Maduo earthquake and the Bayan Har block. The Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (CEA), compiled observation data recorded through 57 broadband seismometers within 500 km of the earthquake epicenter and intended to share for further researches in earthquake science community. The shared dataset included waveforms of the event and its sequence with magnitudes of 3.0 or higher that occurred between May 22–31, 2021 with a sampling rate of 100 sps along with the continuous waveforms of 20 Hz and 100 Hz. Additionally, the seismic instrument response files also were shared. The event and continuous waveform records could be downloaded by submitting a request through the web platform of the Earthquake Science Data Center of the Institute of Geophysics, CEA (www.esdc.ac.cn).     

上海GPS综合应用网对可降水汽量的实时监测及其改进数值预报初始场的试验

析了2002年夏季上海GPS综合应用网（简称SGCAN）的观测数据,实时处理中直接利用IGS（International GPS Service）超快速产品IGU（the Ultrarapid orbit of IGS）轨道,在长基线辅助下考虑海潮的影响,得到了可靠的可降水汽量（简称PWV）序列,监测结果与加密的Radiosonde观测比较,偏差为2mm左右. 与MM5预报可降水量的比较说明GPS监测结果可以作为检验数值预报质量的工具之一. 2002年夏季SGCAN监测的PWV时空变化过程反映了长江三角洲地区从西南到东北的详细入梅雨过程和特点,以及整个梅雨季节雨带在江淮地区来回摆动的情况. 一小时雨量与GPS/PWV锋值的对应关系统计表明GPS/PWV对雷暴雨具有一定的短期预报特性. 利用Cressman分析方法把GPS/PWV插值到中尺度数值预报模式初始场的各个格点上,改进了数值预报初始湿度场的精度,提高了中尺度数值预报的准确性,反映了GPS/PWV促进雷暴雨数值预报能力的潜力.     

Tests of data assimilation and data initialization for the purposes of short-range weather forecast

Summary The initialization and assimilation of input data were studied and tested by the adiabatic version of a simple numerical model for short-range weather forecast.The initialization was based on the utilization of a digital filter technique. The method succeeded in removing high-frequency oscillations from prognostic pressure fields. However, excessive smoothing deteriorated the accuracy of the prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.The data assimilation was performed using the nudging method. Three versions of the nudging method in a splitting scheme were tested. The inclusion of the assimilation at the end of the integration step proved to be the best. The assimilation damped the oscillations of prognostic surface pressure fields and slightly improved the pressure prediction at the lowest levels of the atmosphere.     

Stochastic multi-site generation of daily weather data

Spatial autocorrelation is a correlation between the values of a single variable, considering their geographical locations. This concept has successfully been used for multi-site generation of daily precipitation data (Khalili et al. in J Hydrometeorol 8(3):396–412, 2007). This paper presents an extension of this approach. It aims firstly to obtain an accurate reproduction of the spatial intermittence property in synthetic precipitation amounts, and then to extend the multi-site approach to the generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data. Monthly spatial exponential functions have been developed for each weather station according to the spatial dependence of the occurrence processes over the watershed, in order to fulfill the spatial intermittence condition in the synthetic time series of precipitation amounts. As was the case for the precipitation processes, the multi-site generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data is realized using spatially autocorrelated random numbers. These random numbers are incorporated into the weakly stationary generating process, as with the Richardson weather generator, and with no modifications made. Suitable spatial autocorrelations of random numbers allow the reproduction of the observed daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations. The Peribonca River Basin watershed is used to test the performance of the proposed approaches. Results indicate that the spatial exponential functions succeeded in reproducing an accurate spatial intermittence in the synthetic precipitation amounts. The multi-site generation approach was successfully applied for the weather data, which were adequately generated, while maintaining efficient daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations.     

A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Whether space weather factors affect the occurrence of aviation accidents

Based on a statistical analysis of the database of the US National Transportation Safety Board, we show that space weather factors have no effect on aviation occurrences. We consider typical logical and methodological errors arising in this type of studies and bring facts to show the futility of further research regarding this problem.     

Improving global rainfall forecasting with a weather type approach in Japan

An automated version of the weather type classification scheme was performed over Japan to characterize daily circulation conditions. A daily gridded field of mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis dataset (ERA-interim) and the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) daily forecast dataset were used. The weather type is advantageous as it provides an opportunity to improve global rainfall prediction by refining statistical bias correction. We distinguished 11 weather types: anticyclone, cyclone, hybrid and eight purely wind directions. The results indicate that the main weather types contributing to the total volume of rainfall are cyclone, hybrid, purely westerly and northwest winds. A gamma-based bias correction decreases the global rainfall forecast root mean square by 10%, while specific weather type gamma bias correction accounts for 5–10% root mean square error reduction, with a total decrease of errors up to a maximum of 20%. Both global and weather type bias corrections improve the extreme dependency scores (EDS), but for different extreme rainfall thresholds. The study advocates the use of weather type bias-correction methods for extreme event rainfall intensity corrections higher than 100 mm/d.

EDITOR

A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR

A. Jain     

Radiation belt modelling in the framework of space weather effects and forecasting

The Earth's trapped radiation belts were discovered at the beginning of the space age and were immediately recognised as a considerable hazard to space missions. Consequently, considerable effort was invested in building models of the trapped proton and electron populations, culminating in the NASA AP-8 and AE-8 models which have been de facto standards since the 1970s. The CRRES mission has demonstrated that the trapped radiation environment is much more complex than the static environment described by the old models. Spatial and especially temporal variations were shown to be much more important than previously thought, and to require more complex models than those in use at that time. Such models are now becoming available, but they are as yet limited in spatial and temporal coverage. It is vital to coordinate future modelling efforts in order to develop new standard models.The lack of standardisation of radiation belt models complicates their use in engineering applications where particle fluxes are needed as input to radiation effects models. ESA's SPace ENVironment Information System (SPENVIS) provides standardised access to models of the hazardous space environment, including but not limited to radiation effects, through a user-friendly World Wide Web interface. The interface includes parameter input with extensive defaulting, definition of user environments, streamlined production of results (both in graphical and textual form), background information, and on-line help. The system can be accessed at the WWW site http://www.spenvis.oma.be/spenvis/. SPENVIS Is designed to help spacecraft engineers perform rapid analyses of environmental problems and, with extensive documentation and tutorial information, allows engineers with relatively little familiarity to produce reliable results. It has been developed in response to the increasing pressure for rapid-response tools for system engineering, especially in low-cost commercial and educational programmes.