共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 140 毫秒
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近年来,无资料或资料缺乏地区汇流计算成为水文研究热点。基于地形参数的地貌瞬时单位线(GIUH)方法凭借其对历史降雨径流实测资料的不依赖性,已然成为径流模拟研究中被普遍采用且效果较好的方法之一。为探讨江苏省无资料山丘区的径流模拟方法,选取具有典型地形地貌特征的镇江通胜洛阳河小流域展开研究。根据地貌特征值等数据提取出该流域的地貌单位线,采用地貌单位线计算径流过程,利用2016、2017年汛期实测的4场洪水进行方法验证,将计算径流与实测数据进行对比分析,结果表明:基于地貌特征的地貌单位线法在该流域洪水模拟中具有较高精度,又因该流域于江苏省乃代表性区域,初步判定可将该方法推广至其他无资料山丘区流域。 相似文献
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针对HEC-HMS模型参数区域化在河南省小流域适用性问题,将HEC-HMS模型应用于河南省内栾川、告成、下河村、裴河、中汤、李青店六个小流域,以栾川、告成、下河村、裴河为参证流域建立模型参数与下垫面特征值之间的回归关系,以中汤、李青店流域为例对区域化结果进行验证。HEC-HMS模型在六个小流域洪水模拟平均合格率分别为80.56%、83.33%、77.78%、80.56%、83.33%、75%,均达到乙级水平,表明HEC-HMS模型能够较好的用于河南省小流域的洪水模拟,区域化方法可有效推求河南省无资料小流域HEC-HMS模型的模型参数。 相似文献
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在分析历史降雨资料的基础上,建立流域内各雨量站点雨量与流域平均面雨量的相关关系。结合流域水文站分布图选出与流域面雨量相关性高且有区域代表性的雨量站作为遥测系统的关键测站,保证其稳定运行。利用定点定面关系分析方法,由流域内关键测站的时段雨量推求流域时段面雨量,并带入洪水预报模型进行洪水预报。该方法不依赖流域内全部测站的降雨信息,可有效解决流域内雨量站缺测或数据错误时的洪水预报问题。该方法可为无资料或资料短缺地区及新建水库因资金限制只能建设少量测站时的洪水预报提供参考。 相似文献
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基于GIS对新安江模型的改进初探 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
新安江模型能较好解决降雨时空分布问题,但忽略了其他分布不均的影响。流域汇流特征在很大程度上取决于流域形状特征和地形分布。提出一种方法,利用数字高程模型(DEM)划分子流域,提取各单元流域的平均坡度和最大汇流路径长度,以最大汇流路径长度推求形状系数,并将形状系数和平均坡度引入模型结构中,建立其与汇流参数之间的相关关系,使新安江模型能同时考虑降雨、流域形状以及地形分布。将改进后的模型应用于沿渡河流域进行验证,效果良好。 相似文献
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基于地貌学和水文学的流域汇流模型 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
流域汇流是一个三维水文学问题,主要依赖于流域的河网地貌和河槽动力特征。本文在地貌学和水文学研究基顾上建立了概念性的流域模型,模型参数可由地貌参数和河槽动力特征值推求,该模型是非线性模型,概念清楚,求解地较简便,且可用于缺乏水文资料地区的流域汇流计算。 相似文献
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新安江模型河网汇流参数Cs主要取决于河网形态及地貌特征规律,针对PUB(Prediction in Ungauged Basin)问题,从物理机理分析的角度,构建描述河网汇流动态变化的微分方程并给出适当的定解条件,用解析法得出微分方程的解,从而探索出在无实测水文资料地区适用的Cs计算方法。选取中国湿润地区和半湿润地区25个流域,统计并分析了各流域次洪模型的Cs计算值和率定值。结果表明,从总体来看计算值和率定值基本上相等;不论流域是否分块,提出的Cs计算方法均适用;当其他参数保持不变,虽然Cs取计算值时所得到的次洪模拟结果略逊于取率定值的模拟结果,但误差在可接受的范围之内,也能取得良好的模拟效果;如果令Cs取计算值,再重新率定其余的各项参数,能够使模拟精度得到进一步提高。采用该法可推求无实测资料地区的汇流参数Cs值,使模型在无资料地区的应用成为一种可能。 相似文献
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当前分布式水文模型的参数确定仍主要依赖率定方式,在缺资料地区应用受到限制。建立一种基于变动饱和带产流模式和网格水滴汇流方法的分布式产汇流模型,提出利用下垫面特征来确定模型参数的方法。结合野外入渗试验和参数敏感性分析,建立地表饱和水力传导度(K0z)和饱和水力传导度随深度衰减系数(f)2个敏感性产流参数与地形参数、土壤类型数据的定量统计关系,利用野外坡面流观测试验确定坡面汇流参数,并在多个实际流域进行应用验证。结果表明:(1)利用地形参数确定K0z与使用遥感资料确定K0z的模型精度进行对比,在姜湾实验流域场次洪水模拟的平均确定性系数从0.82提高至0.86,洪峰与洪量误差的平均绝对值分别降低了2.2%和0.95%,但峰现时间误差平均绝对值增大了4%(仍控制在2 h内)。(2)建立姜湾等14个流域参数f率定值与不同深度土壤类型数据的定量关系,移用至七邻等6个流域进行验证,表明参数f关系式与模型率定的精度非常接近,相对误差的平均绝对值为2.8%,场次洪水模拟的平均确定性系数为0.83,洪峰与洪量误差的平均绝对值为10.07%和... 相似文献
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Müsteyde Baduna Koçyiğit Hüseyin Akay Ali Melih Yanmaz 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(15):331
The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009 in Gokirmak Basin in Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. The basin is divided into seven different subbasins to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning on calibrated hydrologic parameters of each subbasin using the peak-weighted root mean square error method as an objective function and the hydrograph at the outlet of the whole basin. It is found out that as the geometric magnitudes of the subbasins changed, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters of those subbasins changed as well. Then, a neighbouring basin, Kocanaz, is considered as an assumed neighbouring ungauged basin to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning of a gauged basin on the estimation of hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. Hydrologic parameters and direct runoff hydrograph of assumed ungauged neighbouring basin are estimated from the hydrologic parameters of the HEC-HMS calibration results of Gokirmak. Statistical indicators of the simulation results for each basin partitioning were graded with respect to the boundary values of the simulation outputs to find the best alternative. The grading results show that the simulation results with a single basin gave better representation among all other partitioning except two flood events. 相似文献
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M. Masoud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(5):2587-2606
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). 相似文献
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缺资料流域水文模型参数区域化研究进展 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:5
缺资料流域由于缺乏历史径流资料无法进行水文模型参数率定,因此模型参数识别具有很大的难度和不确定性。目前国内外学者对缺资料流域水文模型参数识别一般采用区域化方法,即通过某种途径,利用有资料流域的模型参数推求缺资料流域的模型参数,从而对缺资料流域进行预报。文章总结分析了缺资料流域水文模型参数区域化方法中的参数移植法和回归法的研究进展,对存在的方法选择问题、尺度问题等进行了讨论,并指出在参数不确定性、尺度转换以及多种信息源利用等方面还有待于进一步研究。 相似文献
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Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates
both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the
catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the
rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective
function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or
discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical
flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or
missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a
Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence
and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a
lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions. 相似文献
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Flash floods are considered as catastrophic phenomena possessing major hazardous threat to the coastal cities, towns, villages and infrastructures. This study deals with the evaluation of flash flood hazard in the ungauged Wadi Al Lith basin depending on detailed morphometric characteristics of Al Lith basin and its sub-basins. For the detailed study, ASTER data were used for preparing digital elevation model (DEM), and geographical information system (GIS) was used in the evaluation of linear, areal and relief aspects of morphometric parameters. The major parameters such as watershed boundary, flow accumulation, flow direction, flow length and stream ordering are prepared using the ArcHydro Tool. Surface Tool in ArcGIS-10 software, and ASTER (DEM) was used to create different thematic maps such as DEM, contour, slope aspect and hill shade maps. Twenty-five morphometric parameters were measured, calculated and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine morphometric parameters which affect the hydrologic behaviour of the Wadi, by influence on time of concentration which has a direct influence on flooding prone area. The flash flood hazard of the Al Lith basin and its sub-basins was identified and classified into three groups (high, medium and low hazard degree). The study provides details on the flash flood-prone area (Wadi Al Lith) and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. 相似文献