Impulses of activity and the Solar cycle

Extreme-ultraviolet data from EIT/SOHO (1996–2002), soft X-ray data from Yohkoh (1991–2001), and magnetic field data from MDI/SOHO (1996–2002) and Kitt Peak Observatory, NSO/NOAO (1991–2002) are analyzed together in the form of synoptic maps for the investigation of solar cycle variations of the corona and their relation to the magnetic field. These results show new interesting relations between the evolution of the topological structure of the corona, coronal heating and the large-scale magnetic field. The long-lived coronal structures are related to complexes of solar activity and display quasi-periodic behavior (in the form of impulses of coronal activity) with periods of 1.0–1.5 year, in the axisymmetric distribution of EUV and X-ray fluxes during the current solar cycle 23. In particular, during the second maximum of this cycle the solar corona became somewhat hotter than it was in the period of the first maximum.     

Comparison of the Variations of CMEs and ICMEs with those of other Solar and Interplanetary Parameters During Solar Cycle 23

This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23 and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in 1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000 was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45^∘–90^∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0^∘–45^∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001 for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough) larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot activity.     

Comparison of long-term trend of solar radius with sunspot activity and flare index

Results are presented from a study of solar radius measurements taken with the solar astrolabe at the TUBITAK National Observatory (TUG) over seven years, 2001–2007. The data series with standard deviation of 0.35 arcsec shows the long-term variational trend with 0.04 arcsec/year. On the other hand, the data series of solar radius are compared with the data of sunspot activity and H-α flare index for the same period. Over the seven year trend, we have found significant linear anti-correlations between the solar radius and other indicators such as sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and H-α flare index. While the solar radius displays the strongest anti-correlation (−0.7676) with sunspot numbers, it shows a significant anti-correlation of −0.6365 with sunspot areas. But, the anti-correlation between the solar radius and H-α flare index is found to be −0.4975, slightly lower than others. In addition, we computed Hurst exponent of the data sets ranging between 0.7214 and 0.7996, exhibiting the persistent behavior for the long term trend. In the light of the strong correlations with high significance, we may suggest that there are a causal relationship between the solar radius and solar time series such as sunspot activity and H-α flare index.     

The evolution of prominences and their relationship to active centers

The radiation field, emergent from an inhomogeneous atmosphere, may differ significantly from that calculated using a mean model for such an atmosphere. In the solar case, horizontal anisotropy of the granulation pattern leads to azimuthal dependence of the emergent intensity, and this appears as a latitude-dependent limb flux which may mimic oblateness. We examine this latitude-dependence for several two and three-dimensional models of the inhomogeneous solar atmosphere, with varying degrees of anisotropy in the granulation pattern. Elongation along an east-west axis of about 7% would yield a signal somewhat imperfectly mimicking an excess oblateness of 4 × 10^–5. Using the Babcock-Leighton model of the general solar magnetic field we show that some stretching of granules, of this order of magnitude, should be expected. However, it may vary with the solar activity cycle, and in any case the result is very sensitive to the parameters adopted. Even if study of granulation observations should exclude elongations as high as 7%, smaller essentially undetectable elongations may exist. We find that 1 % elongation can account for 25–50 % of a signal corresponding to excess oblateness 4 × 10^–5. We conclude that anisotropy of the granulation pattern may influence oblateness determinations; when this is considered together with other effects, much of the claimed oblateness may be eliminated.     

Solar diameter measurements at São Paulo Observatory

In this work we describe solar radius measurements made from 1972 with the São Paulo astrolabe. We find values of  959.52 ± 0.03 arcsec  for the visual data and  959.61 ± 0.05 arcsec  for the CCD data using a modified data acquisition system. We compare our results with other astrolabe measurements and with SOHO –MDI. Observations of the solar radius show contradictory results when we try to correlate changes in the diameter with the solar cycle. Our series is not correlated with the solar cycle but it shows a period of  13.4 ± 2.2 yr  . We have also compared our time series with other long-term measurements of solar radius along solar cycle 21 and analysed our measurements as a function of heliographic latitude. We do not find a significant solar oblateness.     

Solar quadrupole moment and purely relativistic gravitation contributions to Mercury's perihelion advance

The perihelion advance of the orbit of Mercury has long been one of the observational cornerstones for testing General Relativity (G.R.).The main goal of this paper is to discuss how, presently, observational and theoretical constraints may challenge Einstein's theory of gravitation characterized by β=γ=1. To achieve this purpose, we will first recall the experimental constraints upon the Eddington-Robertson parameters γ,β and the observational bounds for the perihelion advance of Mercury, Δω_obs. A second point will address the values given, up to now, to the solar quadrupole moment by several authors. Then, we will briefly comment why we use a recent theoretical determination of the solar quadrupole moment, J ₂=(2.0 ± 0.4) 10^-7, which takes into account both surfacic and internal differential rotation, in order to compute the solar contribution to Mercury's perihelion advance. Further on, combining bounds on γ and J ₂ contributions, and taking into account the observational data range for Δω_obs,we will be able to give a range of values for β. Alternatively, taking into account the observed value of Δω_obs, one can deduce a dynamical estimation of J ₂ in the setting of G.R. This point is important as it provides a solar model independent estimation that can be confronted with other determinations of J ₂ based upon solar theory and solar observations (oscillation data, oblateness...). Finally, a glimpse at future satellite experiments will help us to understand how stronger constraints upon the parameter space (γω J ₂) as well as a separation of the two contributions (from the quadrupole moment, J ₂, or purely relativistic, 2α²+2αγ–β) might be expected in the future. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long-Term Variations in the Solar Differential Rotation

Using Greenwich data (1879–1976) and SOON/NOAA data (1977–2002) on sunspot groups we found the following results: (i) The Sun's mean (over all the concerned cycles during 1879–1975) equatorial rotation rate (A) is significantly larger (≈0.1%) in the odd-numbered sunspot cycles (ONSCs) than in the even-numbered sunspot cycles (ENSCs). The mean rotation is significantly (≈10%) more differential in the ONSCs than in the ENSCs. North–south difference in the mean equatorial rotation rate is larger in the ONSCs than in the ENSCs. North–south difference in the mean latitude gradient of the rotation is significant in the ENSCs and insignificant in the ONSCs. (ii) The known very large decrease in A from cycle 13 to cycle 14 is confirmed. The amount of this decrease in the mean A was about 0.017 μrad s⁻¹. Also, we find that A decreased from cycle 17 to cycle 18 by about 0.008 μrad s⁻¹ and from cycle 21 to cycle 22 by about 0.016 μrad s⁻¹. From cycle 13 to cycle 14 the decrease in A was more in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere, it is opposite in the later two epochs. The time gap between the consecutive drops in A is about 44 years, suggesting the existence of a `44-yr' cycle or `double Hale cycle' in A. The time gap between the two large drops, viz., from cycle 13 to cycle 14 and from cycle 21 to cycle 22, is about 90 years (Gleissberg cycle). We predict that the next drop (moderate) in A will be occurring from cycle 25 to cycle 26 and will be followed by a relatively large-amplitude `double Hale cycle' of sunspot activity. (iii) Existence of a 90-yr cycle is seen in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the latitude gradient (B). A weak 22-yr modulation in B seems to be superposed on the relatively strong 90-yr modulation. (iv) The coefficient A varies significantly only during ONSCs and the variation has maximum amplitude in the order of 0.01 μrad s<sup>−1</sup> around activity minima. (v) There exists a good anticorrelation between the mean variation of B during the ONSCs and that during the ENSCs, suggesting the existence of a `22-yr' periodicity in B. The maximum amplitude of the variation of B is of the order of 0.05 μrad s⁻¹ around the activity minima. (vi) It seems that the well-known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule of solar activity is applicable also to the cycle-to-cycle amplitude modulation of B from cycle 13 to cycle 20, but the cycles 12 (in the northern hemisphere, Greenwich data) and 21 (in both hemispheres, SOON/NOAA data) seem to violate this rule in B. And (vii) All the aforesaid statistically significant variations in A and B seem to be related to the approximate 179-yr cycle, 1811–1989, of variation in the Sun's motion about the center of mass of the solar system.     

Solar Cycle Variation in Solar f-Mode Frequencies and Radius

Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) covering the period from 1995 to 1998, we study the change with solar activity in solar f-mode frequencies. The results are compared with similar changes detected from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) data. We find variations in f-mode frequencies which are correlated with solar activity indices. If these changes are due to variation in solar radius then the implications are that the solar radius decreases by about 5 km from minimum to maximum activity.     

The Temperature of the Low Corona During Solar Cycles 21–23

Observations of the forbidden coronal lines Fe xiv 530.3 nm and Fe x 637.4 nm obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak are used to determine the variation of coronal temperature at latitudes above 30^∘ during solar activity cycles 21–23. Features of the long-term variation of emission in the two lines are also discussed. Temperatures at latitudes below 30^∘ are not studied because the technique used to determine the coronal temperature is not applicable in active regions. The polar temperature varies cyclically from approximately 1.3 to 1.7 MK. The temperatures are similar in both hemispheres. The temperature near solar minimum decreases strongly from mid-latitudes to the poles. The temperature of the corona above 80^∘ latitude generally follows the sunspot cycle, with minima in 1985 and 1995–1996 (cf. 1986 and 1996 for the smoothed sunspot number, Rz) and maxima in 1989 and 2000 (cf. 1989 and 2000 for Rz). The temperature of the corona above 30^∘ latitude at solar maximum is nearly uniform, i.e., there is little latitude dependence. If the maximum temperatures of cycles 22 and 23 are aligned in time (superposed epochs), the average annual N + S temperature (average of the northern and southern hemisphere) in cycle 23 is hotter than that in cycle 22 at all times both above 80^∘ latitude and above 30^∘ latitude. The difference in the average annual N + S maximum temperature between cycles 23 and 22 was 56 kK near the poles and 64 kK for all latitudes above 30^∘. Cycle 23 was also hotter at mid-latitudes than cycle 22 by 60 kK. The last 3 years of cycle 21 were hotter than the last 3 years of cycle 22. The difference in average annual N + S temperatures at the end of cycles 21 and 22 was 32 kK near the poles and 23 kK for all latitudes above 30^∘. Cycle 21 was also hotter at mid-latitudes than cycle 22 by at least 90 kK. Thus, there does not seem to be a solar-cycle trend in the low-coronal temperature outside of active regions.     

A Prediction of the Peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23

We use a precursor technique based on the geomagneticaa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot number of 158 (± 18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minimum occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as those that require a year of data surrounding the geomagnetic minimum, which typically follows the smoothed sunspot minimum by about six months.     

Solar activity during first six years of solar cycle 24 and 23: a comparative study

Attempt to look into the nature of solar activity and variability have increased importance in recent days because of their terrestrial relationships. In the present work we have attempted to compare the solar activity events during first six years (2008–2013) of the ongoing solar cycle 24 with first six years (1996–2001) of solar cycle 23. To that end, we have considered sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar flux, halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms as comparison parameters. Sunspot number during the year 2008–2013 varied from 0 to 96.7 while during the year 1996 to 2001 it was observed from 0.9 to 170.1. Solar radio flux (F10.7 cm index) varied from 65 to 190 during the years 2008–2013 while it was observed from 65 to 283 during the years 1996–2001. 197 cases of halo CMEs (width=360^°) in solar cycle 23 (1996–2001) and 177 cases of halo CMEs (width=360^°) in solar cycle 24 (2008–2013) are investigated. 287 and 104 geomagnetic storm cases (Dst varies between ?50 and ?350 nT) are analysed during the half period of solar cycle 23 and 24 respectively. Comparative results indicate that solar cycle 23 was more pronounced in comparison of solar cycle 24.     

Periodic Appearance of Coronal Holes and the Related Variation of Solar Wind Parameters

We compared the variability of coronal hole (CH) areas (determined from daily GOES/SXI images) with solar wind (daily ACE data) and geomagnetic parameters for the time span 25 January 2005 until 11 September 2005 (late declining phase of solar cycle 23). Applying wavelet spectral analysis, a clear 9-day period is found in the CH time series. The GOES/SXI image sequence suggests that this periodic variation is caused by a mutual triangular distribution of CHs ∼120° apart in longitude. From solar wind parameters a 9-day periodicity was obtained as well, simultaneously with the 9-day period in the CH area time series. These findings provide strong evidence that the 9-day period in solar wind parameters, showing up as higher harmonic of the solar rotation frequency, is caused by the “periodic” longitudinal distribution of CHs on the Sun recurring for several solar rotations. The shape of the wavelet spectrum from the Dst index matches only weakly with that from the CH areas and is more similar to the wavelet spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field magnitude. The distinct 9-day period does not show up in sunspot group areas which gives further evidence that the solar wind modulation is strongly related to CH areas but not to active region complexes. The wavelet power spectra for the whole ACE data range (∼1998 – 2006) suggest that the 9-day period is not a singular phenomenon occurring only during a specific time range close to solar minimum but is occasionally also present during the maximum and decay phase of solar cycle 23. The main periods correspond to the solar rotation (27^d) as well as to the second (13.5^d) and third (9^d) harmonic. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The Automatic Predictability of Super Geomagnetic Storms from halo CMEs associated with Large Solar Flares

We investigate the relationship between magnetic structures of coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions and geomagnetic storms, in particular, the super storms when the D _st index decreases below −200 nT. By examining all full halo CMEs that erupted between 1996 and 2004, we selected 73 events associated with M-class and X-class solar flares, which have a clearly identifiable source region. By analyzing daily full-disk MDI magnetograms, we found that the horizontal gradient of the line-of-sight magnetic field is a viable parameter to identify a flaring magnetic neutral line and thus can be used to predict the possible source region of CMEs. The accuracy of this prediction is about 75%, especially for those associated with X-class flares (up to 89%). The mean orientation of the magnetic structures of source regions was derived and characterized by the orientation angle θ, which is defined to be ≤ 90^∘ in the case of the southward orientation and ≥ 90^∘, when the magnetic structure is northwardly oriented. The orientation angle was calculated as the median orientation angle of extrapolated field lines relative to the flaring neutral line. We report that for about 92% of super storms (12 out of 13 events) the orientation angle was found to be southward. In the case of intense and moderate storms (D _st≥ −200 nT), the relationship is less pronounced (70%, 21 out of 30 events). Our findings demonstrate that the approach presented in this paper can be used to perform an automatic prediction of the occurrence of large X-class flares and super geomagnetic storms.     

Measurement and Uncertainty of the Long-Term Total Solar Irradiance Trend

A possible long-term trend of the total solar irradiance could be a natural cause for climate variations on Earth. Measurement of the total solar irradiance with space radiometers started in 1978. We present a new total solar irradiance composite, with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 W m⁻². From the minimum in 1995 to the maximum in 2002 the total solar irradiance increased by 1.6 W m⁻². In between the minima of 1987 and 1995 the total solar irradiance increased by 0.15 W m⁻².     

Lifetimes of High-Degree <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> Modes in the Quiet and Active Sun

We study variations of the lifetimes of high-ℓ solar p modes in the quiet and active Sun with the solar activity cycle. The lifetimes in the degree range ℓ=300 – 600 and ν=2.5 – 4.5 mHz were computed from SOHO/MDI data in an area including active regions and quiet Sun using the time – distance technique. We applied our analysis to the data in four different phases of solar activity: 1996 (at minimum), 1998 (rising phase), 2000 (at maximum), and 2003 (declining phase). The results from the area with active regions show that the lifetime decreases as activity increases. The maximal lifetime variations are between solar minimum in 1996 and maximum in 2000; the relative variation averaged over all ℓ values and frequencies is a decrease of about 13%. The lifetime reductions relative to 1996 are about 7% in 1998 and about 10% in 2003. The lifetime computed in the quiet region still decreases with solar activity, although the decrease is smaller. On average, relative to 1996, the lifetime decrease is about 4% in 1998, 10% in 2000, and 8% in 2003. Thus, measured lifetime increases when regions of high magnetic activity are avoided. Moreover, the lifetime computed in quiet regions also shows variations with the activity cycle.     

Electron Temperatures and Flow Speeds of the Low Solar Corona: MACS Results from the Total Solar Eclipse of 29 March 2006 in Libya

An experiment was conducted in conjunction with the total solar eclipse on 29 March 2006 in Libya to measure both the electron temperature and its flow speed simultaneously at multiple locations in the low solar corona by measuring the visible K-coronal spectrum. Coronal model spectra incorporating the effects of electron temperature and its flow speed were matched with the measured K-coronal spectra to interpret the observations. Results show electron temperatures of (1.10±0.05) MK, (0.70±0.08) MK, and (0.98±0.12) MK, at 1.1 R _⊙ from Sun center in the solar north, east and west, respectively, and (0.93±0.12) MK, at 1.2 R _⊙ from Sun center in the solar west. The corresponding outflow speeds obtained from the spectral fit are (103±92) km s⁻¹, (0+10) km s⁻¹, (0+10) km s⁻¹, and (0+10) km s⁻¹. Since the observations were taken only at 1.1 R _⊙ and 1.2 R _⊙ from Sun center, these speeds, consistent with zero outflow, are in agreement with expectations and provide additional confirmation that the spectral fitting method is working. The electron temperature at 1.1 R _⊙ from Sun center is larger at the north (polar region) than the east and west (equatorial region).     

Periodic Behavior and Stochastic Fluctuations of Solar Activity: Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Analysis

We use the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to investigate the spatiotemporal features of the solar activity. Daily observation in the period 1949–1996 of the green coronal emission line at 530.3 nm are used as indicators of the activity behavior. We show that few POD modes suffice in describing both the space and time main periodicities. In particular, being affected by a strongly energetic stochastic behavior, daily data are described by five POD modes, while two POD modes are enough to describe the butterfly diagram in monthly averaged data. Apart from the basic period T₀ = 11 years, using daily data we found evidences for intercycle temporal periodicities.     

Cosmic-Ray Modulation: An Empirical Relation with Solar and Heliospheric Parameters

Long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays were compared with the behavior of various solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the current solar cycle. This study continues previous works where the cosmic-ray intensity for the solar cycles 20, 21, and 22 was well simulated from the linear combination of the sunspot number, the number of grouped solar flares, and the geomagnetic index A _p. The application of this model to the current solar cycle characterized by many peculiarities and extreme solar events led us to study more empirical relations between solar-heliospheric variables, such as the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal mass ejections, and the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and cosmic-ray modulation. By analyzing monthly cosmic-ray data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cutoff rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (2.42 GV) the contribution of these parameters in the ascending, maximum, and descending phases of the cycle was investigated and it is shown that a combination of these parameters reproduces the majority of the modulation potential variations during this cycle. The approach applied makes it possible to better describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of the solar maxima, which could not be done before. An extended study of the time profiles, the correlations, and the time lags of the cosmic-ray intensity against these parameters using the method of minimizing RMS over all the considered period 1996 – 2006 determines characteristic properties of this cycle as being an odd cycle. Moreover, the obtained hysteresis curves and a correlative analysis during the positive polarity (qA>0, where q is the particle charge) and during the negative polarity (qA<0) intervals of the cycle result in significantly different behavior between solar and heliospheric parameters. The time lag and the correlation coefficient of the cosmic-ray intensity are higher for the solar indices in comparison to the heliospheric ones. A similar behavior also appears in the case of the intervals with positive and negative polarity of the solar magnetic field.     

The Occurrences of Coronal Mass Ejection at Solar Minimum and their Association with Surface Activity

We have developed a non-subjective technique for recording the occurrences of coronal mass ejection (CME) in data recorded by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph experiment (LASCO) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft (SOHO). We have found evidence for, and quantified, an asymmetry in the apparent longitudes at which mass ejections occurred during the first year of LASCO synoptic observations and coinciding with the 1996–1997 solar minimum. Throughout this period the solar surface could loosely be characterized as having both an active and a quiet hemisphere and the observed mass ejection asymmetry is seen to relate closely with the longitudes of most persistent disc activity. However, our best estimate for the centroid of the CME distribution is 45 deg to the west of the brightest regions visible in Fe 195 Å emission on the disc and in an area of reduced coronal emission. This corresponds to the location of a trans-equatorial extension of the northern coronal hole which persisted to some degree throughout the year and was directly associated with the most active region on the disc. We suggest that this indicates magnetic reconnection, which is necessary at the boundaries of coronal holes to maintain their quasi-rigid rotation above the differentially rotating photosphere, could play an important role in triggering the destabilization of nearby structures and result in the observed prevalence of mass ejections. We estimate that the events included in the study could contribute around 8% to the total solar mass loss through the solar wind (which is around 10¹⁴ kg day^–1) and find a scale of asymmetry indicating that close to 70% of this mass is ejected from within a single hemisphere.     

Solar influence on nuclear decay rates: constraints from the MESSENGER mission

We have analyzed ¹³⁷Cs decay data, obtained from a small sample onboard the MESSENGER spacecraft en route to Mercury, with the aim of setting limits on a possible correlation between nuclear decay rates and solar activity. Such a correlation has been suggested recently on the basis of data from ⁵⁴Mn decay during the solar flare of 13 December 2006, and by indications of an annual and other periodic variations in the decay rates of ³²Si, ³⁶Cl, and ²²⁶Ra. Data from five measurements of the ¹³⁷Cs count rate over a period of approximately 5.4 years have been fit to a formula which accounts for the usual exponential decrease in count rate over time, along with the addition of a theoretical solar contribution varying with MESSENGER-Sun separation. The indication of solar influence is then characterized by a non-zero value of the calculated parameter ξ, and we find ξ=(2.8±8.1)×10⁻³ for ¹³⁷Cs. A simulation of the increased data that can hypothetically be expected following Mercury orbit insertion on 18 March 2011 suggests that the anticipated improvement in the determination of ξ could reveal a non-zero value of ξ if present at a level consistent with other data.