概率图法在茅排金矿的应用

本文用概率图法研究了茅排金矿４５２个样品的金含量的统计分布规律,最后根据统计结果,分析和讨论了茅排金矿原生金的矿化特征。     

卫星导风在台风路径预报中的应用进展

台风作为全球危害巨大的自然灾害,对其路径预报的准确度尤为重要.在常规观测资料稀少的热带洋面上,卫星云图是监测热带气旋的主要工具,其中卫星导风技术,通过对云及晴空区特征的追踪,反演出的卫星风矢,在一定程度上弥补了海洋上由于风场观测资料稀缺对台风路径研究的限制,显著提高了台风路径预报水平.结合近年来逐步成熟的卫星导风中的云导风技术在台风预报上的应用,总结了国内云导风技术在改善台风路径预报中的贡献,如加密观测资料、台风中心定位、优化数值模式初始场和客观分析场、构造人造台风Bogus模型以及由其揭示的发展和不发展热带气旋的对流层上部环流特征,同时展望了卫星导风技术及其资料在台风预报实际应用中有待进一步研究的内容.     

Continuous Facies Updating Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter and the Level Set Method

We present a methodology based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the level set method for the continuous model updating of geological facies with respect to production data. Geological facies are modeled using an implicit surface representation and conditioned to production data using the ensemble Kalman filter. The methodology is based on Gaussian random fields used to deform the facies boundaries. The Gaussian random fields are used as the model parameter vector to be updated sequentially within the EnKF when new measurements are available. We show the successful application of the methodology to two synthetic reservoir models.     

考虑历史洪水资料的期望概率权重矩法参数估计统计试验研究

为有效利用历史洪水资料,提高洪水资料系列参数的估计精度,研究期望概率权重矩法在广义极值分布参数估计中的应用。采用蒙特卡洛试验研究期望概率权重矩法的统计特性,并与部分概率权重矩法做比较。结果表明:期望概率权重矩法具有良好的稳定统计特性,并且是具有历史洪水资料系列进行参数估计的一种简单、稳定和有效的参数估计方法,具有推广意义。     

基于条件期望的全概率公式及其应用

基于条件期望和随机事件A的示性函数IA，推导了离散型和连续型随机变量的全概率公式，要解决诸如离散型和连续型等一类随机问题时，若采用传统的全概率公式来解，势必带来很大的困难。但是，运用本文所研究的全概率公式。结果令人满意，具有较强的实用性，从而拓展了全概率公式的应用范围和解题思路，值得推广应用，同时该公式在可靠性理论研究中也有重要应用。     

Bridging Deep Convolutional Autoencoders and Ensemble Smoothers for Improved Estimation of Channelized Reservoirs

Mathematical Geosciences - One of the main problems associated with applying data assimilation methods for facies models is the lack of geological plausibility in updates. This issue is even more...     

降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模

提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D(early effective rainfall-rainfall duration)阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量(early effective rainfall,EE)和降雨历时(D)为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示：(1)宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e^{4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE},其拟合优度为0.983;(2)2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;(3)C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知...     

Application and Verification of Joint Probability Method in Potential Forecast for Severe Convective Weather in Anhui Province

In consideration of large uncertainties in severe convective weather forecast, ensemble forecasting is a dynamic method developed to quantitatively estimate forecast uncertainty. Based on ensemble output, joint probability is a post-processing method to delineate key areas where weather event may actually occur by taking account of the uncertainty of several important physical parameters. An investigation of the environments of little rainfall convection and strong rainfall convection from April to September (warm season) during 2009-2015 was presented using daily disastrous weather data, precipitation data of 80 stations in Anhui province and NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data. Through ingredients-based forecasting methodology and statistical analysis,four convective parameters characterizing two types of convection were obtained, respectively, which were used to establish joint probability forecasting together with their corresponding thresholds. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecast and observations from April to September during 2016-2017, systematic verification mainly based on ROC and case study of different weather processes were conducted. The results demonstrate that joint probability method is capable of discriminating little rainfall convection and non-convection with comparable performance for different lead times, which is more favorable to identifying the occurrence of strong rainfall convection. The joint probability of little rainfall convection is a good indication for the occurrence of regional or local convection, but may produce some false alarms. The joint probability of strong rainfall convection is good at indicating regional concentrated short-term heavy precipitation as well as local heavy rainfall. There are also individual missing reports in this method, and in practice, 10% can be roughly used as joint probability threshold to achieve relative high TS score. Overall, ensemble-based joint probability method can provide practical short-term probabilistic guidance for severe convective weather.     

Analysis and Estimation of Natural Processes with Nonhomogeneous Spatial Variation Using Secondary Information

Natural processes encountered in mining, hydrogeologic, environmental, etc. applications usually are poorly known because of scarcity of data over the area of interest. Therefore, stochastic estimation techniques are the tool of choice for a careful accounting of the heterogeneity and uncertainty involved. Within such a framework, a better utilization of all available data concerning the process of interest and all other natural processes related to it, is of primary importance. Because many natural processes show complicated spatial trends, the hypothesis of spatial homogeneity cannot be invoked always, and the more general theory of intrinsic spatial random fields should be employed. Efficient use of secondary information in terms of the intrinsic model requires that suitable permissibility criteria for the generalized covariances and cross-covariances are satisfied. A set of permissibility criteria are presented for the situation of two intrinsic random fields. These criteria are more general and comprehensive than the ones currently available in the geostatistical literature. A constrained least-square technique is implemented for the inference of the generalized covariance and cross-covariance parameters, and a synthetic example is used to illustrate the methodology. The numerical results show that the use of secondary information can lead to significant reductions in the estimation errors.     

1955-2011年兰州沙尘暴、浮尘天气事件发生概率的Markov模型研究

依据甘肃兰州市1955-2010年沙尘暴、 浮尘天气事件年变化资料, 划分年强度分级, 应用Markov模型对其不同强度发生概率进行分析, 在此基础上预测和检验了2011年兰州沙尘暴浮尘天气事件的发生概率.结果显示: 2011年沙尘暴发生的特强年、 强烈年、 强发生年、 一般发生年和少发年的概率为,而事实上2011年发生沙尘暴0次,属于少发年, 符合预测结果; 2011年浮尘天气发生的特强年、 强烈年、 强发生年、 一般发生年和少发年的概率为,而事实上2011年发生浮尘9次,介于平常年和少发年范围, 符合预测结果.随着时间序列的延长, Markov模型可成为短期沙尘暴浮尘天气变化预测的有效途径.     

Adaptation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index to Mediterranean forests

Natural Hazards - The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most used tools to forecast forest fire hazard. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the FWI to take into account the...     

基于可控源电磁法阻抗信息的有限内存拟牛顿法三维反演

本文研究了利用阻抗信息进行可控源电磁勘探有限内存拟牛顿法三维反演的技术。首先用理论模型来验证有限内存拟牛顿法反演的准确性和可行性。观测参数为复阻抗Z_xy分量,采用交错网格有限差分方法计算模型响应,反演采用有限内存拟牛顿法。数值模拟结果表明：有限内存拟牛顿法反演迭代速度较快,每4 min迭代一次,拟合差由146.00下降到1.78,收敛稳定;异常体的位置与理论模型吻合较好,有效地验证了有限内存拟牛顿法可控源三维反演的正确性。为了进一步验证该方法的实用性,将其应用到隐伏钼矿可控源电磁勘探工作中。工区的反演结果显示：在工区北西段深部存在高阻异常,其上为低阻异常。截取过钻孔的3号测线发现,-500~-100 m的位置表现为低阻,东侧存在向上涌起的高阻。推测此低阻为矿化蚀变带,延伸较深。该异常与钻探资料揭示的钼矿脉一致,证明了反演结果的准确性。因此,利用可控源观测得到的阻抗信息进行有限内存拟牛顿法三维反演,可以获得可靠的三维电阻率分布。     

Adaptive Conditioning of Multiple-Point Statistical Facies Simulation to Flow Data with Probability Maps

Multiple-point statistics (MPS) provides a flexible grid-based approach for simulating complex geologic patterns that contain high-order statistical information represented by a conceptual prior geologic model known as a training image (TI). While MPS is quite powerful for describing complex geologic facies connectivity, conditioning the simulation results on flow measurements that have a nonlinear and complex relation with the facies distribution is quite challenging. Here, an adaptive flow-conditioning method is proposed that uses a flow-data feedback mechanism to simulate facies models from a prior TI. The adaptive conditioning is implemented as a stochastic optimization algorithm that involves an initial exploration stage to find the promising regions of the search space, followed by a more focused search of the identified regions in the second stage. To guide the search strategy, a facies probability map that summarizes the common features of the accepted models in previous iterations is constructed to provide conditioning information about facies occurrence in each grid block. The constructed facies probability map is then incorporated as soft data into the single normal equation simulation (snesim) algorithm to generate a new candidate solution for the next iteration. As the optimization iterations progress, the initial facies probability map is gradually updated using the most recently accepted iterate. This conditioning process can be interpreted as a stochastic optimization algorithm with memory where the new models are proposed based on the history of the successful past iterations. The application of this adaptive conditioning approach is extended to the case where multiple training images are proposed as alternative geologic scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the proposed adaptive conditioning scheme are discussed and numerical experiments from fluvial channel formations are used to compare its performance with non-adaptive conditioning techniques.     

Comparison of the Garnet--Orthopyroxene Geobarometer with Recent Experimental Studies, and Applications to Natural Assemblages

The garnet-orthopyroxene geobarometer developed by Harley (1984)in the accompanying paper is compared with other recent experimentaldata on alumina solubility in orthopyroxene, obtained both inend-member and more complex systems. The geobarometer, in partbased on recent reversed data in MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ (Perkins etal., 1981), is in reasonable agreement with other recent dataincluding the reversed data of Perkins & Newton (1980) inCaO-MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂. Comparison with the experimental data ofWood (1974) in the FeO-MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ system indicates thatless alumina enters orthopyroxene at a chosen P-T conditionthan suggested by that study. Application of the geobarometer to garnet-peridotite xenoliths,and peridotite massifs within gneiss terrains yields broadlyconsistent and reliable pressure estimates provided the temperatureof equilibration is well constrained. Existing data for garnet-peridotitexenoliths in kimberlite yield P-T estimates which lie near steady-statecontinental geotherms but which lie well to the high-temperatureside of such geotherms at high pressures. These data, however,do not necessarily define a simple ‘kinked geotherm’.It is suggested instead that the xenolith data must be viewedin terms of polygenetic models of equilibration and cation exchangeclosure. Garnet-peridotite bodies enclosed in gneisses in the Alps andNorway yield pressure estimates in the range 20–30 kilobars.Such pressure estimates favour a mantle origin and tectonicemplacement model for these bodies. The most recent data relevantto the ‘country-rock’ orthopyroxene-eclogites fromNorway give pressure estimates (18 ? 8 kb) which do not allowdiscrimination between the in situ model of formation and thetectonic emplacement models. Some suites of crustal granulites yield pressure estimates whichare internally consistent, consistent with the presence of characteristicaluminosilicate polymorphs, and similar to pressures calculatedusing other reliable geobarometers where these are available.However, the geobarometer may underestimate pressures in comparisonwith a previous calibration (Harley & Green, 1982), particularlywhere measured values of K^ga-opx _DFe-Mg are high. This discrepancyresults from the sensitivity of the geobarometer equation torelatively small changes in garnet composition, independentof variations in alumina contents of the orthopyroxenes. A diversesuite of samples from a single locality in Enderby Land, Antarctica,illustrates some of these problems and uncertainties.     

黄河1922～1932年连续11年枯水段的分析研究

本文根据大量实测及历史资料,论证了黄河上游存在与中游同步的1922～1932年连续11年枯水段,该枯水段的出现机率为200年一遇。建议以1951～1975年水文系列作为黄河水资源规划和水利计算的代表系列。     

Bayesian Estimation of Boundary Conditions with Application to Deep Tunneling

An iterative procedure is proposed to determine the far-field state of stress that exists in a rock mass with non-linear behavior around a tunnel. Absolute displacements of the tunnel wall obtained by means of geodetic measurements are used to identify the boundary stress conditions. Previous information is accounted for, so that boundary conditions can be updated at the various stages of a project, as soon as new information becomes available. The application to the 2-D plane strain synthetic model of a tunnel in a yielding rock mass shows the fast convergence of the procedure and the need to use absolute displacements (rather than relative displacements) in order for the identification problem to be well-posed.     

IPCC AR4多模式对中国地区干旱变化的模拟及预估

使用中国地区温度、降水格点观测数据以及多模式集合平均数据,计算了帕尔默干旱指数(Palmer Drought Severity Index),评估了全球气候模式对中国地区1961—2000年干旱变化特征的模拟能力,预估了SRES A1B情景下在2011—2050年干旱的可能变化.结果表明:对于衡量干旱变化特征的干旱频率、持续时间、干旱面积等几个指标,整个中国地区区域平均的模拟值与观测值较为符合;模式能够模拟再现西北地区的干旱变化特征,模拟的干旱程度在华北地区偏弱、长江以南地区偏强.2011—2050年SRES A1B情景下,中国地区表现为持续的干旱化趋势;总体干旱面积和干旱频率持续增加,其中极度干旱的持续增加占主要作用.从EOF分析结果看,未来40a中国地区以整体干旱分布型为主.