东海潜在地震海啸特点

主要从东海发生地震海啸的可能性分析,海啸传播过程的特点以及发生概率几个方面重点阐述讨论了东海地震海啸的一些特性,并分析了地震海啸在东海发生的概率及其特点。得出东海潜在海啸源区主要位于冲绳海槽内,数值模拟海啸在东海的传播过程方程应采用球坐标系下的线性方程,对于近岸的传播包括上岸部分的研究应该采用笛卡儿坐标系下的非线性方程,并且要考虑底部摩擦等项的对波浪的衰减作用。     

有关东海地震震源区预测的新观点

有关东海地震震源区预测的新观点据日本《日经产业新闻》报道，有关东海大地震的议论，至今已近２０年。直到最近才通过研究逐渐弄清了东海地区地震活动的实际情况。在诸多看法中，出现了认为该震震源区要比原来预测的地区更靠近静冈县内陆的观点。这很有可能影响到对震灾...     

东海地震对策必须重新审订

重新审订的缘由自作出东海地区将会发生大地震的预测之后 ,为有备无患 ,减轻自然灾害 ,1 978年制定了《大规模地震对策特别措施法》 (以下简称大震法 )。迄今仍在实施的大震法的特点表现在以下几个方面 :以准备预报大地震为前提 ;发布警戒宣言 ;制定对应措施。这个“对应措施”对社会的影响很大 ,后面将会谈到。地震的短期预报主要通过观测前兆现象来作出 ,可前兆现象的呈现方式因时间、地点而不同 ,既有复杂性的一面 ,又有不确定性的一面 ,所以可信度高的预报一般是很困难的。而当初制定大震法却是以“有可能准确作出 M 8东海地震的临震预…     

东海的粘附区与地震活动的变化

前言最近 ,媒体不断报导说东海周边地区的地震活动和地壳运动正发生着异常变化。此时正值 1 999年 8月以来 ,静冈县西部正下方菲律宾海板块内部的地震活动减弱 ,开始了所谓的平静期。紧接着 ,国土地理院公布了 GPS所观测到的截至 2 0 0 1年 6月的地壳异常变化结果。毫无疑问 ,这些肯定都是自观测以来出现的异常变化 ,问题是这些异常与东海地震有何联系。1 976年石桥提出东海将会发生地震的警告 ,以此为契机建立了国家规模的防灾体制 ,可 2 0多年来却一直相安无事。“终于有动静了 ?”目前有这说法也是理所当然的。不过 ,这决不是确凿的判…     

东海的地质与油气勘探

东海的地质研究和油气勘探已经历了三个阶段:1.利用综合地球物理方法（重力、磁力、地震反射）,阐明东海的大地构造分区及其演化;2.反射地震研究得出东海陆架盆地的新生代构造图;3.在此基础上,详细地震勘探与地震地层学研究,确定出一系列钻探井位。钻探发现油气显示和工业油气流。其中,新钻井灵峰一井展示出寻找油气资源的新课题。     

基于DEMETER卫星观测数据的电离层地震前兆分析——以汶川地震、东海地震为例

本文利用可视化分析和统计分析的数据处理方法,结合2008年5月12日汶川Ms8.0地震和2007年4月20日东海Ms6.3地震两个震例,进行了探索性研究,阐述了基于DEMETER卫星观测数据提取电离层地震前兆信息的思路,通过对电磁场频谱、等离子体数密度、温度等物理参量的可视化展现,探讨了电离层扰动与地震的关系.结果表明,在排除电离层内一些典型干扰的前提下,地震发生前几天或者几个小时电离层扰动可以被观测到.     

东海八角亭海洋深井台地震监测

上海市地震局设计、建设的中国第1个真正意义上的海洋深井地震观测台位于东海石油平台上,井深780 m,安装2套JDF-1型地震计进行观测。通过对陆域地震台站记录的大地震进行分析比较、方位校准,采用单台地震分析方法,确定2009年5月—2011年6月记录到的136个地震参数,总结海域地震波形特征。结果表明,该海域地震活动性特征与当地地质构造一致。     

2009年日本骏河湾地震后东海俯冲带上应力转移之探讨

日本西南部位于菲律宾海俯冲板块和欧亚上冲板块交界处。1944年和1946年,东南海和南海分别发生一次8级大逆冲型地震,但与该板块边界相邻的东海却仍保持闭锁状态[1]。因此,东海地区有可能会发生一次大逆冲型地震。2009年,骏河湾发生6.4级地震,地震位于菲律宾海俯冲板块内,靠近东海地区。在此,我们利用断层滑动模型来研究由骏河湾地震引起的应力变化[2]对东海地区的影响。我们发现在这次地震之后,板块边界的地震活动发生率有所上升。东海地区推测的强闭锁地段大都位于应力逐渐增大的地区。其中一小块闭锁地段的破裂——发生在地震应力达到临界值之后——就会引起整个东海地区的破裂,最终引发一场大逆冲型地震。     

东海重磁地震综合探测剖面研究

依据东海南部一条自东海陆架直至菲律宾海盆的重磁地震综合探测剖面,采用地壳结构重磁地震综合反演解释系统开展岩石圈结构的综合研究,制作了岩石圈结构地学断面图. 结果表明基隆凹陷为一中新生代沉积凹陷,沉积厚度达到14km;冲绳海槽盆地为弧后扩张地堑型盆地,地壳厚度仅为14.5km;菲律宾板块沿北西西方向向欧亚板块俯冲,莫霍面急剧下插,导致冲绳海槽的形成与发展;岩石圈厚度约为80km,但在370km处仅为53km,在450km至540km处岩石圈厚度大于100km.     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

计划效果对尼斯阔利地震的影响

20 0 1年 2月 2 8日 ,在华盛顿州首府奥林匹亚以北的尼斯阔利湿地地下 3 2英里 ( 1英里= 1 .60 9千米 )处发生一次 6.8级地震。当时正值西雅图计划效果指导委员会 ( the SeattleProject Impact Steering Committee)与其几百个合作者准备庆祝该委员会成立 3周年之际。地震发生 1小时后 ,该地区所有的应急管理人员并未像通常那样聚集在西雅图的 PhinneyRidge Neighborhood中心 ,而是由该委员会成员和早期到达的飞机将孩子们从中心的 2个日托中心疏散到安全地带。这次地震并没有全面检验应急和恢复团体的成员 ,主要原因是震源较深 ,且皮吉…     

Strain and stress changes in the Tokai region of central Japan expected from a 3D subduction model

Using a 3D simulation model with a rate- and state-dependent friction law, Kuroki et al. (2002) discussed a process of a hypothetical great earthquake in the Tokai region, where the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the Eurasian plate. One of the main concerns was characteristic changes in volumetric strain and displacement on the ground surface which are caused by the evolution of the coupling between the two plates, i.e. evolution of a strongly coupled region between the plates which results in a preslip of the earthquake.In the present paper we discuss other observable phenomena which might help us to identify the stage of the coupling. The preslip of the earthquake could be more effectively detected by using full information about the change of strain rather than volumetric strain alone; the change in rotation angle of principal strain axes should amount to several tens of degrees while the order of the change in volumetric strain is 10⁻⁸ to 10⁻⁷ for 1 day before the earthquake. The spatial pattern of the displacement field on the ground surface provides us with information on the intermediate-term precursory changes in the plate coupling. Information given by micro-earthquakes is less direct. The seismicity should change considerably when a highly shear-stressed ring on the plate interface passes nearby, and ups and downs of seismicity rate will be estimated by Coulomb failure stress. On the other hand, focal mechanisms are rather insensitive to the progress of plate subduction. The changes may be not significant even at the time of the preslip. The interplate coupling yields a stress field that should produce reverse fault type mechanisms, but the stress field is modulated by a curved shape of the plate interface. Superposition of a regional tectonic stress to this field explains observed spatial distribution of focal mechanisms in the Tokai region which involve large strike-slip components.     

日本9级大震前我国钻孔应变网测到两起地块强烈受压事件

为了解地震孕育过程中地层应变的变化,我国建设了分量钻孔应变观测网.钻孔应变观测既可以观测到日月引潮力引起微弱的应变固体潮汐变化,也能记录应变突变事件.该钻孔应变台网最临近日本东海大地震的东北地区的两个位于大断裂旁的观测点,在9级地震发生前两年半和半年时,先后记录到地块岩石地层强烈受压事件,受压幅度达到10 4应变量级....     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

Structure and evolution of the backstop in the eastern Nankai Trough area (Japan): Implications for the soon-to-come Tokai earthquake

Abstract We present data showing that the intra-oceanic shortening now occurring south of the eastern Nankai Trough that has produced the Zenisu Ridge has also been responsible for the formation of a previous ridge now buried below the continental margin. This ridge, that we refer to as Paleo-Zenisu, is presently adjacent to the backstop and its location coincides with the outer limit of the seismogenic decollement. The subduction of the paleo-Zenisu ridge below the wedge has led to its complete reorganization and has given its identity to the Great Tokai earthquake rupture zone. The formation of paleo-Zenisu and its consequent subduction has induced the tilting of the backstop toward the northwest since ca 2 Ma. This model suggests that the backstop and possibly the wedge are dextrally sheared because they are extruded southwestward in relation to the collision of the Izu-Bonin Ridge with Japan. We use the finite motion from Zenisu to paleo-Zenisu to derive both the subduction vectors along the Nankai Trough and the shortening vectors within Zenisu-Izu. The amount of shortening absorbed within Zenisu-Izu increases toward the northeast. The corresponding subduction vectors of the Zenisu platelet below the wedge decrease accordingly to the northeast from 50 to less than 20 mm/year and the Zenisu body rotates clockwise with a pole near 36° North, 139° East. This might explain the apparent longer repetition time of great earthquakes in the Tokai area. On the other hand, the 25-35 mm/year obtained for the rate of shortening along the Zenisu thrust indicates a high seismic potential there.     

Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.